Caspian Cup Stats

It was another good major race weekend last weekend
with Guy highlighting Walk The Mill at 16/1 for the Becher Chase.
That followed Sizing Tennesse at similar odds the week before in the Hennessy.

Copies of his exact stats, analysis and thought train to arrive there were in this and last weeks free newsletters.

I know many will never see beyond the idea of “give me a tip for today” but hopefully a small percentage of you with a desire to learn to fend for themselves  will see benefit in examining how experienced racing analyst Guy tackled his analysis of those two recent major races.

This weeks free news also provided a few starter stats for this Saturday’s Caspian Gold Cup at Cheltenham.

Here are the links

Last Weeks Free Newsletter


This Weeks Free Newsletter




Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on December 15, 2018

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Beecher Chase Age Stats And More


I can’t believe it has been so long since I posted up on this blog.

Time flies and I have been busy over on the main Mathematician site I guess.

I must find a way to spur myself on to do more here in future.

Perhaps some form of electronic device that includes  sparky high powered batteries and a countdown timer that resets on each blog post.

Get some  some wires connected to my testicles and hey presto  we have an effective  “better do a blog post soon” motivation device.

Perhaps that may do the trick.

Dragons Den here I come.

No doubt that when presented with such genius the dragons will be fighting to throw millions at my invention.

Phase 2 then would be product development.

That would be an improved device with the ability to apply the testicular charge remotely using suped up wireless charging technology, to any bookmaker trader who seemed to think 37 pence is a reasonable maximum  stake to offer a punter.

Who would like to buy one 🙂

I will gladly give the first 500 beta testers here the product at cost price.


Anyhow getting back on track to racing and away from Christmas roast chestnuts

I am going to point you over to an online copy of today’s free newsletter rant.

There is a bit of a mix and match of stuff inside.

For starters there is detail on Beecher Chase Ages Stats that you may find of use for Saturday.

Also a look back at last weeks Hennessy and a few points of possible learning to extract from it.

Plus there is a  rant on so called glowing testimonials you may see on some racing sites.

Bar the Beecher stuff which is obviously time sensitive to tomorow, most of the rest is less so and should still be as idioticaly useless  in six months time as it is today.

Teaching grandmother to suck eggs for a few of you but hopefully beneficial enlightenment to some others.


Here is the link

==>  More Fishy Than A Sushi Bar


Best Wishes










Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on December 7, 2018

Cheltenham Gold Cup Part 2

The last day of the Festival
Cheltenham Gold Cup Day

That race is our main target
Edwulf is our ante post bet
We have £5 stake remaining
Increasing stakes on Edwulf
With the saver on Might Bite

Gold Cup Staking Explained

Already Advised Ante Post

Edwulf 20/1 £3 Win
Edwulf 20/1 £2 Place
£5 Staked Ante Post

Remaining £5 Stake Today
£3 Win Edwulf 16/1
£2 Might Bite 4/1

Leaves this final stakes
£3 Win Edwulf 20/1
£3 Win Edwulf 16/1
£2 Place Edwulf 20/1
£2 Saver Might Bite 4/1

EDWULF is given the chance
He is a 16/1 semi-outsider
It would not be any surprise
Were he to win or pull up today
I am hoping it will be the former
And win lose of draw today
I am happy with our 16/1-20/1
He may just have the momentum
And he is close enough on ratings


7/2 Might Bite, 4/1 Native River, 13/2 Our Duke,
9/1 Killultagh Vic, 10/1 Definitly Red, 10/1 Road To Respect,
14/1 Edwulf, 14/1 Total Recall, 20/1 Djakadam,
25/1 American, Anibale Fly, 33/1 Bachasson,
33/1 Outlander, 50/1 Tea For Two, 66/1 Saphir Du Rheu

EDWULF is my Gold Cup horse
He has come here late under the radar
Most presumed he’d never run again
After what happened to him last year
Blew me away at Navan in Feb 2017
My Cheltenham Banker in the 4 miler
Had would have been 1st or 2nd there
EDWULF then collapsed in spasms
Looking like he might even die
Lost his eyesight which has returned

How do we know he is not the best horse
Or the horse best suited to the Gold Cup
He looked a machine to me last season
What happened to him in 2017 is a concern
But he appears to have overcome that now

That should be seen as a sign of courage
Wrong to assume he is soft and damaged
He has just won a Grade 1 Chase in Ireland
Beating several horses he faces today
And he has done that in impressive style
When he had not had a proper race all year
I do not believe that race was any fluke
EDWULF is a guaranteed stayer unlike many
He does not have to improve that much

On Official ratings MIGHT BITE is top rated on 169
EDULF is only 4lbs lower on 165
That is not much to find at all
When on his Racing Post Ratings
EDWULF comes here on a career best

Number of Chase runs

19 Djakadam
17 Outlander
15 Saphir Du Rheu
13 Definitly Red
13 Tea For Two
12 Native River
11 Mala Beach
10 Road To Respect
10 Edwulf
10 Anibale Fly
9 Might Bite
8 Total Recall
7 Our Duke
5 Bachasson
5 American
3 Killultagh Vic

Under 15 Chase runs is ideal
The more over 15 you have
The less your chance of winning
The Previous 22 Gold Cup winners
Had the following career chase runs

9 18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11
12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

20 of the 22 last Gold Cup winners
Had under 15 previous chase runs
Kauto Star was one of the exceptions
Don Cossack managed it in a weak year
Generally speaking you want <15 chases

DJAKADAM is too exposed
He has already had his chance
His sire has not bred a soft ground winner
In Class 2 or higher beyond 3m 1f

OUTLANDER is too exposed now
Horses aged 10 + are 1-104 since 1992
Doesn’t stay this trip well enough
SAPHIR DU RHEU is overexposed
Especially with just 1 run this season

MALA BEACH is outclassed
Horses aged 10 + are just 1-104 since 1992
TEA FOR TWO is outclassed

BACHASSON is a 7 year old
Past 7yo Gold Cup winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
I would be worried about a 7 year old
If having just 2 runs this season
I don’t fancy him given the conditions

There are several unproven stayers
TOTAL RECALL has breeding issues
Horses sired by Westerner
3m 2f or more
Good to soft or worse
Class 2 or higher
Return a 0-23 record
He also comes from a hurdle race
None have done that in decades
And he has no Grade 1 winning form

ANIBALE FLY 33/1 fell last time
Hardly the best preparation
Neither trainer or sire look welcoming
Stamina has to be proven as well
The last 16 winners of this race
Had won a Grade 1 race and he hasn’t

NATIVE RIVER has to be respected
He was 3rd in last years race
But he had 4 prep runs beforehand
This year he only has 1 warm up race
That is not a good sign statistically
Soft ground could compound that
He has raced just once in 364 days
So I do not feel that drawn to him

KILLUTAGH VIC is inexperienced
He only has 3 previous Chase runs
The last 22 winners had the following
9 18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11
12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

21 of the 22 winners had at least 5 runs
Coneygree (2015) was the only exception
He had a safer profile that Killultagh Vic
Coneygree had more runs that season
And He did not come here after a fall
KILLUTAGH VIC has 2 runs in 14 months
He fell in one of those races as well
Not for me in with 3 chases on bad ground
Not in a big field with so few runs this year

AMERICAN has 5 Chase starts
That would be the bare minimum
He has only raced twice this season
Only 1 and a half times really
As he pulled up in one of those runs
It may be asking too much from him

OUR DUKE is clearly very talented
After beaten in Ireland by Edwulf
He did win last time at Gowran Park
Not sure that is a great preparation
OUR DUKE has a 27 day absence
Cheltenham Gold Cup since 1997
Horses running in the last 32 days
Have a 0-62 record in the last 21 years
OUR DUKE fails this 0-62 record
He also comes from a 2m 4f race
The only horses that managed that
Were 9 year olds and he is younger
He also lacks any Cheltenham form
He would make it on a long shortlist
High class prospect but lots to prove

ROAD TO RESPECT has every chance
But he has to prove his stamina
I like 10 chase runs and much about him
His last 2 runs were career bests
Is he bred to win a Gold Cup though
Sire was a 12f Flat horse after all
Take the sires runners in Class 4 +
None have yet won beyond 3m 1f
I see positives and negatives
But he does not make the staking


DEFINITELY RED is shortlistable
Unfashionable but seems solid
Consider his Cotswold Chase win
Racing Post Rating was 172 that day
Sizing John won the 2017 Gold Cup
His Racing Post Rating was only 171
If he stays no shock if he won this
But I do have some reservations
His last Racing Post Rating of 171
Might well have flattered him
My other problem is his class
He has not yet won a Grade 1 though
Been a long time since a winner didn’t
He has only just come out of handicaps
As Ireland are dominating this game
Can we really expect a Northern winner ?

MIGHT BITE has to prove his stamina
But put that aside for one moment
He is the highest rated horse in the race
He is W W W W W in his last 5 races
That includes a RSA Chase
It also includes a King George Chase
Without a doubt he is the class horse
But he’s not shown that over this far
And heavy ground won’t make it easier
MIGHT BITE is sired by Scorpion
Scorpions runners in Class 4 or higher
Have yet to win any race past 3m 1f
But very few have actually tried yet


We have an Ante Post Bet

£3 Win £2 Place EDWULF 20/1

The remaining £5 Stake today
£3 EDWULF 16/1

This leaves this final staking

Leaves this final stakes


£3 Win Edwulf 20/1 [past advised ]
£3 Win Edwulf 16/1
£2 Place Edwulf 20/1 [ past advised ]
£2 Saver Might Bite 4/1


£2 Saver Bet






Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 16, 2018

Gold Cup Official Tip – Part One

Gold Cup Official Tip – Part One

One of our promises here is to pass on
for free our analysis of the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Things are a little strange this year with Guy
deciding to invest 50% of his total stake on the race
early. The below was sent to full members on Sunday
March 11th. Odds on offer are fluid and subject to change
since then

There will be a future update here on this blog
about the Gold Cup whenever Guy decides
which horse best merits the remnant 50% of stake.
Most probably this may be on Gold Cup Day itself.
But exact timing can not be guaranteed.
Exact timing will be done to best suit what Guy
feels is best for full members.
He could for example see extra edge in
going in the day before the race.

If you are into twitter note
that a tweet will be sent
as soon as we blog post here.

Follow on Twitter at!/mathbetting


1 Account bet

This is Ante Post
In the Cheltenham Gold Cup
Partially staked to 50% stake

Account Bet

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Friday – Cheltenham 3.30pm

EDWULF 20/1 +

£3 Win

£2 Place

Half Stakes Today
The remaining £5 Stake
Will be given nearer the race

25/1 Hills
22/1 Sportingbet Betfair
20/1 Ladbrokes Skybet Unibet Coral
20/1 Boyles Betbright

Cheltenham Gold Cup

EDWULF is 25/1 with Hills
He is 20/1 with most firms
He is around 22/1 on Betfair

Last night I backed him to win
The last review I did on this race
I had him on a list of 5 horses
Of potential shock winners

Minella Rocco 33/1
Edwulf 25/1
Road to Respect 10/1
Definitely Red 20/1
Double Shuffle 40/1

EDWULF has made the staking
I want to bet him now at the price

This horse is lucky to be alive
I spotted him earlier than most

Blew me away at Navan in February 2017
He was my Cheltenham Banker in 2017
Had every chance in the 4 miler
Before he collapsed in spasms
Looking like he might even die
He lost his eyesight which has returned

No reason why he can’t win this
Just done a career best Racing Post Rating
He seems to have been unfairly overlooked
As a horse lucky to be still alive and racing
Perhaps people might see him as weak and soft
Having had such a horrible experience

That could well be a big mistake
It could be a collectively false assumption
He’s just won the Irish Gold Cup
Having hardly had a race all season
Maybe he is the horse I always felt he was
His last win was really impressive
He has a lovely Gold Cup profile as well
EDWULF will be part of my staking plan
I think we should bet him now at 20/1



Cheltenham Offer

Note that we have a deal on this week to celebrate Cheltenham.

It is aimed at giving those of you who have not yet tried the full member service
a good excuse to come in and check it out with your own eyes this week.






Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 12, 2018

Imperial Cup

Just a quick copy of Guy’s analysis
for last Saturday’s Imperial Cup.

Some of the stats, angles and thought
train may be of use to you for next year’s running
if you copy and save or bookmark.

Call Me Lord was beaten by a mere neck.
Frustratingly close to a proper win and not just place money.

If seeking a general wider point of learning from the below
it could perhaps be to note Guy’s willingness to slightly buck
elements of trend research. In this particular instance it was
the weight issue.

Some will use trend research too brutally at times.
A stat they will use as a reason not to think any deeper.

For Guy they are often more so a starting point.
Most definitely a useful tool in the armoury
but never to be trusted blindly.
More so they are a foundation upon
which extra thought is then layered.


Saturdays Imperial Cup

Each Way
1/4 Odds 1,2,3,4

Scenario 1

Call Me Lord has an impossible weight
In a race where highweights never win
As a 5yo on bad ground with Topweight
It is probably asking far too much of him
Giving weight to older talented horses

Scenario 2

Call Me Lord is comfortably the class horse
He should overcome his large weight
The frame of the weights favours him
He’s a 152 rated horse facing just a 0-140
He has a significant class advantage
And he should at least make the 1-2-3-4

Obviously we are hoping it’s Scenario 2

SANDOWN 2.25 – Imperial Cup

9/2 Whatswrongwithyou, 6/1 Le Patriote, 13/2 Call Me Lord,
8/1 Silver Streak, 8/1 Friday Night Light, 12/1 Octagon,
12/1 Huntsman Son, 14/1 Master Of Irony, 14/1 Fidux,
14/1 Highway One O One, 16/1 Mr Antolini, 20/1 Gassin Golf,
20/1 Castafiore, 25/1 Man Of Plenty, 25/1 Birch Hill,
25/1 Chti Balko, 25/1 Shanroe Saint
Graded Handicap Hurdle over 2 miles

This traditionally goes to lightweights
But this year may well be different

CALL ME LORD has topweight of 11st 12lbs
He fails my weight statistics because of this
But I have to see him as the class horse

CALL ME LORD is rated 152
He only faces a 0-140 class field
Before he ran in the Kingswell Hurdle
He was 25/1 to win the Champion Hurdle

Topweight or not
He surely is better than 0-140 Grade
I am asking myself that around 7/1
With 4 places available with 17 runners
Can we not expect him to at least place ?

The ideal profile in this race
A Horse aged 4-5-6
With under 10 hurdle runs
And under 11st 3lbs weight
Most past winners had this profile

Horses aged 7 or more
Have a 3-138 record since 2001
All 3 winners of these older
Had 10st 5lbs or less
Horses aged 7 or older
Who carry 10st 6lbs or more
Have a miserable 0-92 record in this  

Horses failing these angles
GASSIN GOLF is 9 with 25 hurdle runs
MAN OF PLENTY is 9 with 21 hurdle runs
MR ANTOLINI is an 8yo with 15 hurdle runs
That is not the kind of horse that won this

OCTAGON is an 8yo older than ideal
You can argue he has a light weight
And is not too exposed over hurdles
But 74 days off could be a problem
Horses aged 7 or more like him
Absent more than 6 weeks were 0-41

HUNTSMAN SON is an 8 year old
We know horses aged 7 or more
Have a 0-92 record with 10st 6lbs +
HUNTSMAN SON fails this statistic
Nicky Henderson has 2 huge runners
CALL ME LORD the class horse
WHATSWRONGWITHYOU could easily win
He does have a few little profile problems
Horses aged 7 + with 10st 6lbs or more
Have a miserable 0-92 record in this race
WHATSWRONGWITHYOU fails this angle
He is a 7 year old with 10st 13lbs
He only has 3 hurdle starts as well
Past winners had the following hurdle starts
4 5 4 4 19 8 6 5 3 3 9
The 2008 -2009 winners had 3 hurdle runs
They were younger horses though
One came from a Class 2 handicap hurdle
They other was a Group horse in France
WHATSWRONGWITHYOU is not a perfect fit
Horses from Novice or Maiden Hurdles
Have won a few races in the dim and distant
But since 2009 the last 26 have been beaten
WHATSWRONGWITHYOU has this problem
Not sure he is that well treated off 139
His Best Racing Post Rating is just 133
He’s Sired by a sprinter on the flat
Who has a stamina index of only 6.5 furlongs
I prefer the other Henderson runner

I am avoiding horses with light season
Look at the recent winners of this race
They had the following runs that season   
8 5 8 4 8 3 6 6 3 3 8
I’d demand at least 3 runs this year
BIRCH HILL is an 8yo
He looks underraced this year

SILVER STREAK could be as well
He is a 5 year old
He unseated rider at the 2nd last time
That means he has just 2 full races this year
We know all past winners had 3 or more
That could well cost him in the closing stages
SILVER STREAK fails another serious angle
Go back as far as 2001
Horses from Handicap Hurdles
9 or more previous hurdle runs
Have a 0-110 record in this race
SILVER STREAK fails this 0-110 record
FIDUX is a 5 year old
He looks a bit too exposed to me
Horses aged 5 have a 4-55 record
These had 4 5 8 4 hurdle starts
FIDUX has 10 hurdle runs
Not to mention 24 career starts as well
SHANROE SAINT is still a maiden
He lacks backclass and looks outclassed
CASTAFIORE is a 5 year old
He won last time and is up 10lbs
Probably too exposed to overcome that
CHTI BALKO is a 6yo
Has plenty of weight with 9 hurdle runs

MASTER OF IRONY has 98 days off
That’s longer than every  past winner
With 20 lifetime starts he is quite exposed

HIGHWAY ONE O ONE is absent 74 days  
12 of the last 13 winners
Ran in the previous 55 days
Longest absent winner was 92 days
His absence is not helpful
But his numbers are progressive
He is lightly raced so respected


FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHT has a decent profile
Lightly raced 5 year old lightweight
LE PATRIOTE won last time out
Lots to like as an improving 6yo
Career best Racing Post Rating last time

CALL ME LORD has 11st 12lbs
So far hasn’t been a race for high weights
Last years winner had 11st 2lbs
The previous 12 had 11st or less  

Horses with 11st or more are 1-85
Horses with 11st 3lbs or more are 0-50

CALL ME LORD has a very tough weight
In his favour he is the class horse
Rated 152 He only takes on a 0-140 field
As explained earlier I do like that angle
Look at his win here in April 2017
It was the last day of the 2017 season
CALL ME LORD had topweight
He had the second longest absence
He won the Juvenile Handicap easily
CALL ME LORD has a W W track record
He won again here in January
That was just as good a race as this
He was 13/8 favourite in the Kingswell Hurdle
That was a strangely run race
He was racing on the worst ground that day
The horses beating him raced apart from him
I think he should be capable of taking this



£4 Each Way

1/4 Odds 1,2,3,4

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 12, 2018

Tags: ,