Bookmaker Dormant Account Warning

Most of you know that bookies want to win your money off
you.

But did you know they can just take your cash even if you
do not make a losing wager?

Well they can and they can’t.

Their terms often have provision for dealing
with what they class as dormant accounts.

These would be punter accounts that have
seen no action on them for some time.

It matters little to the punter if such an account
has zero balance in it.

But if there is balance there then this balance has potential
to be eaten away by dormant account fees.

It’s not a quite a free for all however for bookies with
such matters.

Any uk regulated bookie will have standards to uphold in dealing
with such matters. They have to make a fair attempt to contact
the customer for example.

But I can see how a fair attempt using email may not reach
the target.

So rack your brains.

Do you have any old bookie accounts with balance in them?

They may even use an old email address that no longer works.

I got caught out myself with this just this week.

Checking an old email address I had not looked at in six
months

I found a few emails from Betfair from a month ago.

It appears I had set up a second Betfair account back in
2007 and it still had some balance in it.

I had totally forgotten about it’s existence.

If I remember correctly I had set it up as short lived experiment
for a soccer punter mate totrade on using my funds.

Once alerted I quickly logged in and made a super small trade
to kill the dormant status.

But I noted I had been charged £5 each week for 3 weeks
in a row as dormant account fees.

No moans from me towards Betfair about all this.

They contacted my email well in advance.

It was my fault not to check emails in that inbox for six
months.

You stay more alert than me I suggest :)

Learn from my mistakes.

What’s The Positive ?

Well I am actually semi happy as I now

realise I have a second Betfair account with £350 in
it.

So mentally I am £350 up as I had totally forgotten
about it.

I could just withdraw it but that would be no fun.

Seeing as it is totally separate from my main Betfair account

I thought I might do something special with it.

My own mum does a fair bit of voluntary work for Marie Curie.

As a retired nurse she has medical skills they can put to
good use.

My own skills lie elsewhere.

I thought I would try and bet the initial £350 figure
up to a target £700.

If I hit it I will keep £350 and donate the rest to
Marie Curie

What Will I Bet On?

Well if you look at the profit chart

for Guy’s backing tips at

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/profit-chart.asp

it should be clear to see that an approach based on
those would be far from idiotic.

However because this surprise £350 is already in Betfair
I intend to base this on Guy’s advice from his newish lays
section of the full member message here as that is 100% geared for
Exchanges.

As you can see from the list below he has been quite selective
with these.

But also very accurate at identifying shorter priced favourite
to oppose.

Much more so patient sniper like than machine gunnist.

DATE HORSE
Bet Profit
Total Profit
12-May Amber Crystal
£48
£48
13-May Receding Waves
£42
£89
18-May Cry Fury
£62
£151
19-May Peggy Do
£288
£439
19-May Morselle
-£100
£339
22-May Luna Moon
£53
£393
27-May Towering
£104
£497
03-Jun Sophie’s World
£161
£658
08-Jun Hurricane Fly
£52
£710
17-Jun Grangeclare Rosa
£24
£733
02-Jul Zebs Fantasy
£81
£814
03-Jul Jayjinski
£44
£858
08-Jul Rio Deva
£64
£922
14-Jul Lady Gemini
£38
£961
03-Aug General Potempkin
£95
£1,056

The profits above assume you take a maximum risk of £100
on each horse at BSP with 5% commission.

I guess one way of looking at the above figures might be
to say that a client here who had risked £100 on each lay would
now be over £1000 better off in winnings since May 12th.

So even forgetting about additional profits on the backing
tips they would have earned more than our annual subscription fee
over that shortish period.

That’s just one way of following lays.

Some people may prefer to put up a fixed amount for a punter
to take on Betfair. If so their £ risk of loss will
vary on a horse by horse basis according to odds.

It is just my personal preference to veer more towards a
maximum loss per selection.

How Will I Stake My Charity Fund?

Staking on anything is part spreadsheet figures and part mentality.

The mental side is all about an individuals risk and reward
attitude.

In this scenario I am dealing with a small surprise pot of
cash.

I am happy to veer towards over aggression with it.

With a larger pot I could less afford to totally lose I would
play safer with.

What I will do is set my liability on each lay at about 15%
of my bankroll.

That will add a bit of compounding element into it as well.

Out of interest that exact approach would have turned an
initial £1000 into £3.1k over the series of lays as per above.

I will set a three month review date on it as well assuming
the target is not met before then.

Anyhow I will let you know how I get on with it in future
newsletters.

Hopefully the end result at the end of it is that I still
have my £350 and Marie Curie get a cheque for the same.

If I blow the lot well both Marie Curie and myself will be
in the same position we thought we were at a week ago.

 

Lays Spreadsheet

If you have an interest in laying note the spreadsheet I
knocked up

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/download/negatives-spreadsheet.xls

It let’s you examine various staking approaches.

Wipe all Guy’s lays data from it and input your own lays if
you like.

You will note I have added place lay data for all Guys lays
too despite him officially laying in the win market.

There has been good edge place laying them too as it happens.

One for outside the box thinker clients perhaps?

What About This Saturday?

Guy had a reasonable Saturday last week with his sole official
tip placing at 12/1 each way.

I asked him if he had anything useful for you for tomorrow.

He said he was just early into his research for tomorrow at
this stage but he passed on a few stat nuggets for the Shergar Cup Meeting
at Ascot.

++++++++++++++++++++

The Shergar Cup at Ascot started back in 2000

There have been 84 races at this 1 day festival

There are two Generic Stats to consider

All horses that ran aged 7 or more are 1-68

All horses aged 4 or more absent 54 + days are 0-42

++++++++++++++++++++

So I guess those of you who like to pick your own
could use those stat filters to reduce your shortlist
a degree.

No stats are ever infallible of course.

The attitude will always be know the numbers
so you can choose to sway your opinion by them
in order to help gain longer term edge.

Do your homework and you are more likely to pass the test.

Perhaps our clients here are cheaters who pay
big racing swot Guy to do their tedious homework
for them :)

It’s no different in theory really to Warren Buffet
paying skilled stock analysts to do research for him.

Guy’s final conclusions for Saturday you can book

for a one off £3 at

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass

Or if your vision extends beyond a single day
then give him a test for a month at

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

Best of luck for your weekend racing

Mick

PS If you don’t yet have a Betfair account you are probably
missing out on better backing odds and on ability to trade
and lay.

They have a £30 free bet bribe for new accounts at
this link

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on August 7, 2015

Tags: , , ,

Galway Festival Misdirection

The piece below is a short extract from Guy’s full member message for clients of www.mathematician-betting.co.uk from earlier in the week.

I thought it interesting comment so I have popped it up here.

I guess if seeking educational points from it they may include:

#1 – Don’t implicity tust racing media articles.  Journalists are humans with flaws. They are often paid by the word and not by how much you win following their lead. They can take short cuts and often don’t dig deep enough into the facts that matter to punters who want to find edge.

#2 – Poorly thought out but mass media hyped stuff can be a good thing if you can spot it and have done the work to know they are wrong.  If it causes extra demand on what you don’t want to back you will be more prone to find good value on what you do want to bank.

#3 – If you like to pick your own you might future benefit from Guy’s interpretation of Gordon Elliot’s words.

========================================

 

 

Galway  Festival

A recent headline in the Racing Press

“Elliot Buoyed Up For His Lucky Track”

It was an interview with Gordon Elliot about
this weeks Galway Festival. I know the best
stable this week is Dermot Weld so I thought
I’d just have a look at Gordon Elliott’s record.

* Galway Festival since 2009

* Gordon Elliott’s runners

* There was a 0-64 record

So much for being his Lucky track !!!

Whoever wrote that article is an Amateur
To be fair he scores well here in the Autumn
His runners at this festival though are 0-64
It would make me think twice before I bet him

That Gordon Elliot article was very lazy but it
did throw up a quote I felt was just fascinating.
Read it and bear in mind he has a 0-64 record.

” It’s a very busy time for us in the next couple
of weeks. All the good winter horses will come
back in and we’ll start them off slowly and get
them going. We’ll have some smashing horses”

This infers that all these good horses he trains
have been away and haven’t resumed training
yet and will be out running later in the season.

This infers all his Galway Festival runners are
his second division horses and perhaps this is
why this trainer has a 0-64 record at this festival.

We should pay attention to this stat this week

Galway Festival since 2009

Dermot Weld 55-192
Gordon Elliott 0-64

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on July 31, 2015

Tags:

Grand National Tips

We have just popped up some detailed research into the Grand National

over on our main site.

see here Grand National Tips

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on April 3, 2015

Tags: , ,

CHELTENHAM The Statistical Awakening

They say we are an intelligent and honest service
based on statistics. I think it’s a bit more than that
and whilst Statistics divide people it’s a far bigger
area that most people realise as our clients know.

If I go back 10 years and look at my past messages
at Cheltenham they look so out dated now. These
are full of tired clichés and well known statistics.

The old chestnuts are still going strong
5 year olds can’t win Champion Hurdles until they do
6 year olds can’t win the Gold Cup until they do

Times have changed
Racing has changed
Our Analysis is always improving

That said it is heartening to see so many more use
statistics, data and analysis. In the last few seasons
there has been a statistical awakening in punters.

Nowadays so many more gamblers are improving
and going through an awakening with betting and
the use of racing statistics. So too are bookmakers
Tipsters, Journalists, Authors and Bloggers as well.

As a service though we have moved on. I read the
mainstream statistics and recognise these angles
as something I was doing several years ago. I feel
heartened to see many people use them well and
they are useful but these days you do need more.

Bookmakers know all about these angles and you
will find them quoting weary old statistics purely
from memory such is the extent that some of the
statistics are so far in the public domain. Its now
no longer to use these tired old arguments well.

For the last few seasons we have not stood still.

We have been developing and using some far
better angles very successfully. Our results are
better now than they have ever been and when
you consider we never advertise and rely only
on long term members and people that enquire
about us it shows we are doing something right.

When I advise a bet we want you to understand
why your are having the bet and the reasons to
do that. We are not afraid to test things out and
take risks when we need to. Members tell us it
is a service that leads the way and teaches you
how to improve your betting simply through an
intelligent approach that nobody else manages.

As an example let’s take Cheltenham
Handicap Hurdles and Handicap Chases.
Horses aged 11 or more

Many people will tell you horses aged 11 win
and they do but they won’t tell you that those
few winners aged 11 were very similar types

They won’t tell you if 11 year olds manage to
win if having an absence or carrying weight
or how many runs they have needed to win.

As it happens no 11 year old has managed to
win a Cheltenham handicap without having
a race in the previous month. We search to
find the angles that really matter. We look to
find Precedents and areas of weakness and
we collate these all and interpret them and
show members why they are betting horses.

We develop combination statistics showing
what type of horse wins each race and why.

I am working on a race next week right now

I find that in the last 6 years of this race
5 of the 6 winners had the same profile
Only 9 horses ran with this profile since 2009
These horses had a 5 winners from 9 record.
They won at 12/1 16/1 20/1 25/1 14/1
This will be a race fully discussed next week
Members will have full access to these angles

It is an angle I have never used before
It illustrates that we are never standing still.
We never stop working for clients
We are still several years ahead of the rest
Fascinating to see others catching up now
The Statistical awakening is growing each year
They are working the same way we did years ago
In a few years time they will be where we are now.
Join us and see how far ahead we will be then

If interested in joining now is the time.
My Cheltenham deal offers you first month savings.
The deal covers not just Cheltenham
but also the Aintree Grand National Festival.
Plus of course all mid week and Saturday action
before and in between.

There is a super strong refund guarantee on it because
I know how much effort I have put into preparing for Cheltenham
and I am highly confident you will not be disappointed.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

Excellence. Integrity. Profit.

Best wishes
Guy Ward
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 6, 2015

Tags: , ,

Injured Jockeys Charity Bet

Injured Jockey Fund Charity Bet

As I mentioned on our free newsletter yesterday
I am making use of b etfairs all customers invited
free bet offer today with winnings if any to be donated
to the Injured Jockey Fund.

The constraints I have to work with here are
- It must be at Ascot or Haydock
- It needs to be SP 3/1 or better.
( this bit is of course impossible to assess with 100% accuracy before the off )
- I am also seeking to use one of the races Guy has covered in his Saturday Message
- I promised a 1pm post time so I can’t select early races

This Saturday he has an Account Bet at Huntingdon
The two from his “Selections” category are at LingField.

ie his three strongest advices for today do not fit the “must be Ascot or Haydock” criteria.

He actually said to members

“Plenty of rain about and it’s soft
if not heavy at three National Hunt meetings.

I’ve made Lingfield the spine of the message
as there will be no significant changes there
and we know what we’re getting. I’ve dipped
into the National Hunt races I liked but there
are many big field handicaps on bad ground
at Ascot and Haydock and I’m dropping a few
of them this year if these look far too difficult.”

So we are into the Profile and Preview section of his message.
This section you can picture as a write up of research and analysis
he has done while seeking good value.

It is very possible for him to work a few hours on a race and
end up with no apparent stand out value that would merit elevation
of the advice to one of the stronger bet categories.

In Profiles and Previews today he has analysed 12 races.
Some in greater detail than others and as for reasons cited above
not too many at Ascot or Haydock.
Bearing in mind the race time criteria above I am left with only one race really that I can possibly select for our charity bet and it is one he has only done a very short write up on.

 

The 3pm Betfair Chase at Haydock

Guy says

“Considering the Betfair Chase is one of the best
early season races it is surprisingly very low on
my priority list. I don’t the race or the track or my
angles in this race and never have done. Its only
a very tokenistic view so if you fancy something
don’t let me put you off. I looked at the horses in
this race that had a chance that had proven form
over 3m 1f in Soft or Heavy ground in Grade One
Class there is only CUE CARD that has achieved
that. He’s Top on Racing Post Ratings and comes
out second on Official Ratings. Having won this
race last year he seems a reasonable e/w option.

Selection

CUE CARD 4/1

Each Way”

So Cue Card it is then for our charity bet under the b etfair offer
I have bet £25 on the nose at 4/1 and it may pay out
more under best odds guarantee if SP is greater.
Winnings if any will be sent to the Injured Jockeys Fund.
If it does win then any bonus free bet from them will
also be bet on behalf of the IJF ( on another day ) and I will post up here
in advance of the off if so.

Here’s hoping lady luck smiles on us.

A good start to the day so far for full members as I type.
The 11.50 race Guy got right.

The same with the 12.10
Same with the 12.20

So 3 out of 3 so far today.

Best wishes
Mick
Site Admin

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on November 22, 2014