Each Way Bet Robbery

With helping to run a horse racing site I am in a better position than many to hear about things that irk and annoy racing punters.  A lot of the same things annoy me too.

One regular little annoyance is when a non runner scuppers my each way bet.

For example I place an each way bet on an eight runner race that will payout if my horse finishes 1st , 2nd or 3rd.

What Happens?

The law of Sod- that’s what.

Some no hoper horse gets withdrawn then with seven runners there are only two places.

My horse comes third.

The bookmaker keeps my money.

Despite being aware of the risk of such stuff I still can’t help feeling a bit gubbed and cheated by the system.

But is there a way to fix this and create a world where less punters have to experience that bad feeling?

I believe so and I sense future  hope as I ranted about in our free newsletter today.

I have stuck a copy on line at this link

eachway scuppering bookmaker rules





Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on October 14, 2016

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Cesarewitch Past Winner Profiling

If you have an interest in the Cesarewitch at Newmarket next Saturday note that Guy has done a bit of advance research profiling previous race winners.

I have just sent it out via our free newsletter.

An online copy of it may be viewed here

=>  Cesarewitch Statistics


Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on October 7, 2016

The Cambridgeshire 2016

“Difficult but not impossible” were Guy’s words to full members here today with regards to The Cambridgeshire at Newmarket on Saturday.

As I type I see SportingLife cite 86 runners remain. That will get culled down to 30 odd shortly.

Only after that happens will it merit looking at individual runners.

[ Unless of course you are some form of masochist

who enjoys spending time assessing 46 non runners. ]


But what Guy did put out today were some stats relative to the race in general.

The last time he looked at this race was in 2014.

Back then the same style of stats led him to his own shortlist of two.

These finished 1st and 3rd. The winner was 20/1 when pointed out.

His base race stats for this year are up on a free to view page at







Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on September 21, 2016


Shock Horror – Tipster Tips Losers!

Tipster Tips Losers

I wrote a bit of a rant on our free newsletter
the other week.

I guess a lot of the hype marketers out there
may have been scratching their heads
at a racing site telling all its free members
that they did in fact tip losers.

Hype marketing school teaches
tipsters to just talk about winners
and nothing else ..yup?

No need to discuss net long term profits.
Instead just whack a picture of a Ferrari up there.
Perhaps a picture of a yacht as well to get any
gullible fool doubting Thomas over the line?

I hate all that tosh.

My own rough rule of thumb might be that
the higher degree of marketing hype
there is , the worse the end product will be.

We here much prefer a smaller number of clients
that will stick with the service longer term.

A client pre fed truth not pure hype
will be better positioned to succeed.

Plus it suits us just grand to dissuade
gold fish brained short term thinkers from joining.

Anyhow I stuck up the newsletter content
as a webpage mainly because it is reasonably timeless
decent advice. I hope that it might someday help sway
a current headless chicken to a future straighter line.

Here is the link

Tipster Tips Losers



Posted under Bet Doctor

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on August 19, 2016

Grand National 2016

Grand National Stats – Ratings – Breeding

Guy has been doing a bit of extra research for full members this

week into the Grand National.

I have collated most of it here for you.

He has concocted a pretty complicated ratings system

awarding points for certain elements of form.


Similar last year did semi ok.

It did not pick up the winner Many Clouds

but his nine horse short list did highlight

2nd and 3rd horses Saint Are and Monbeg Dude

who returned 13.48 and 16.02 in the Betfair

Exchange place markets.


I guess there will always be a degree of personal

choice with such things.

Some may be prone to go full hog to find the one winner from forty horses.

Others may see logic in aiming for a more achievable place.


Best wishes and good luck for the National

I hope the info below is a bit of extra help if

you like to pick your own.


If you prefer to read to Guy’s personal final opinion

on the day for the Grand National and multiple other races just book in at




Site Admin


#1 – Race Statistics


Horses aged 6 and 7 are far too young
They haven’t won since 1940 and few finish the race

Horses aged 8 need looking at
Only 4 of the last 38 winners were 8 year olds
If you bet an 8 year old make sure it is actually 8
Be aware some horses are younger than their age
If Foaled after the day of the race they are really under 8
Most 8yo winners were foaled early before the race
Those foaled in May or later look opposable
They are just 7 and a few months old
Horses aged 13 can also be opposed with some confidence

Older horses dominated recently.

2010 The 1st 2nd 3rd 5th 6th 7th 8th were aged 10 or more
2011 The 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th were aged 10 or more
2012 The 1st 4th 5th 6th 7th were aged 10 or more
2013 The 1st 2nd 4th 5th 6th were aged 10 or more
2014 The 1st 2nd 6th were aged 10 or more
2015 The 3rd 4th were aged 10 or more

The last 27 winners had the following runs that season
4 7 4 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 3 5 4 6 7 6
Horses with 1-2-3 runs that season underperform
None have won with just 1 run
Only Miinnehoma 1994 won with 2 runs that year
He had 9 Chase starts and 17 career runs
I can live with 3 runs if the horse is unexposed
If under 25 National Hunt runs and 9-20 chase runs

Runs Since January 1st that year
Past winners had the following runs
2 2 3 2 3 2 3 1 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 4 3 2 3 3 4
20 of the last 21 winners had at least 2 runs since Jan 1
Horses with under 2 runs in this period perform badly

It is very important to have a recent race
The last 25 winners were absent this many days
29 23 35 56 35 23 21 41 32 27 48 28 20
25 42 20 24 35 23 16 35 23 35 23 25

The last 25 winners all ran within 56 days
Look at the absences of the Runner Ups
56 24 49 30 45 49 25 27 21 22 22 100 35
23 63 345 28 16 44 18 42 21 23 23 102
20 of the past 25 Runners Ups also ran within 7 weeks

Class is important in a National Winner
13 of the last 15 winners won in Listed Grade or higher
Ballabriggs (2011) did not do that
He had won in Class 2 race but hadn’t been tested in higher
I’d argue he should be seen as a Graded winner
He won the 2010 Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival
It was a Class 2 handicap but he did that with Topweight
That was more than worthy or a Graded win
Pineau De Re (2014) did not do that either
He was 2nd in a Grade race though
24 of the last 25 had raced in Graded Class before
The exception was Ballabriggs (2011)
Again I make the point he could be seen differently
The vast majority of the runner ups also did this
The ones that did not were mainly lightly raced
Horses with 25 + runs must have past Graded Form
Having No Graded form is a serious worry

Do not rule out highweights who scored well recently
Many have won before and the fences are easier now

Chasing Experience is of obvious importance
The previous 24 winners had the following Chase runs
10 11 23 27 12 12 24 14 13 10 11 37 41 14 12 24 17 25 10 23 16 9 14 28 14
Least Experienced Chaser was Miinnehoma in 1994
He had 9 Chase runs and 3 other winners had 10 Chase starts
Horses with Under 9 Chase runs are unlike any past winners

I looked at the Chase runs of the last 20 Runner Ups
21 22 9 11 10 24 18 11 13 15 23 14 20 10 11 9 19 14 9 8 24 32 22 8
I would be wary of any horses with under 10 Chase starts
10 of the last 15 winners had just 10-15 previous Chase start

We have to bear in mind the race is changing
The 2012 4th (Cappa Blue) had just 6 chase runs
Mely Moss was 2nd in 2000 with 5 Chase starts
Lord Atterbury was 3rd in 2004 with 4 Chase starts
The race has been maid easier too

21 of the last 22 winners had 3-4-5-6-7 Chase wins before
They had 5 3 5 11 4 4 3 5 4 3 3 5 7 3 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 4 5 Chase wins

You want a decent Jumper
15 of the last 16 winners had not fallen more than twice before
This was the only statistic the 66/1 winner in 2013 failed
I wouldn’t rule a horse out on this statistic
Every winner since 1970 had won over at least 3m
The record of horses from 2m 4f or shorter is poor
This is worse when its a Chase over 2m 4f or shorter

I Looked at horses from handicap chases over 2m 6f or less
No horse won doing that with 21 or more runs
Recent winners had ran in the following Handicap Chases
1 9 16 9 7 5 21 8 8 6 6 24 33 7 12 14 12 15 7 16 7 4 7
Every winner bar 1 ran in at least 4 Handicap Chases
Horses running in 5-12 Handicap Chases did well
They won 15 of the last 23 renewals
Number of Handicap Chases won
Recent winners had won the following Handicap Chases
1 2 3 3 3 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 6 0 4 4 5 4 3 3 1 1 2
No past winner had won more than 6 Handicap Chases
Seasonal Debutants should be avoided
Not having headgear is preferable to having it
Past Winners had the following number of wins that year
3 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 3 1 1 1 0
There were 7 winners coming from Cheltenham
The 1994 1996 2015 winners came from the Gold Cup
Bindaree 2002 came from the Trophy Handicap (6th)
The 2010 2014 winners came from the Pertemps H’Cap Hurdle
Silver Birch 2007 came from the Cross Country race
Ideally I’d like good chase form in a big field
Ideally I’d avoid horses that were Novices last year



#2 – Grand National Ratings Rules


Each horse starts with 50 Points

Horses aged 7 – Subtract 5 Points
Horses aged 8 – Subtract 2 Points
Horses aged 8 Foaled after May 1st- Subtract 1 more point
Horses aged 10 – Add Half a Point
Horses aged 11 – Add Half a Point
Horses aged 12 – Subtract 2 Points
Horses aged 13 + Subtract 5 Points
Horses aged 8 have a 2pts deduction
Add an extra Point if they have won a Graded Chase before

Previous runs since August 1st 2014
Horses with 0-1 runs in this period – Subtract 5 points
Horses with 2 runs in this period – Subtract 3 Points
Horses with 3 runs – Subtract 0.5 points
Horses with 2 runs and 21 + Chase starts – Subtract another 2pts
Horses with 3 runs and 21 + Chase starts – Subtract another 1pts

Runs Since January 1st  2015
Horses with under 2 runs since Jan 1st – Subtract 2 points
If having 21 + Chase starts – Subtract another 1 point

Horses absent 56-65 Days- Subtract 1 point
Horses absent 66-85 Days – Subtract 2 points
Horses absent 86-96 Days – Subtract 3 points
Horses absent 97-119 Days – Subtract 3.5 points
Horses absent 120 + days – Subtract 4 points

Horses winning Listed/Graded races – Add 1 point
Horses without any Graded form – Subtract 3 points
No point deductions for high weights this year

Horses with Under 9 Chase starts – Subtract 3 points
Horses with under 3 Chase wins – Subtract 1.5 points
Horses with 3 or more Chase Falls – Subtract 2 points

Horses who did not win over 3m or more – Subtract 3 points
Horses that have won over 3m 3f or more – Add 1 point
Horses coming from 2m 4f or shorter – Subtract 1.5 points
If that 2m 4f race is a Chase – Subtract 0.5 extra point
Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter – Subtract 1 point
If that horse has 21 or more career runs – Subtract 0.5 more points

Horses with Under 3 Handicap Chase runs – Subtract 2pts
Only deduct 1 point if they have won a Grade 1-2 Chase
Only deduct 1 point if they have placed in a Grade 1 Chase
Horses running in 5-12 Handicap – Add a Point
Never won a Handicap Chases – Subtract 1 point
Won 7 or more Handicap Chases – Subtract 1 point
2 or more wins since August 1st 2014 – Subtract 1 point

Horses coming from Cheltenham Handicaps
Winning last time in that race – Subtract 1.5 points
Horses coming from any Cheltenham race
Beaten over 15 lengths in that race – Subtract 1pt
Horses that raced over hurdles since Aug 1st – Add 1 point
Horses starting 25/1 + last time if it was a Chase – Subtract 1.5pts

Horses that fail my Breeding Statistics will also face deductions




#3 – Grand National Horse Ratings


Theoretically the higher the number the better the chance

The Best profile on these scores belongs to Goonyella.

I have ignored rating 7 year olds as I know they would not score well.

A few total outsiders I have also ducked.


Goonyella 53.00
Rocky Creek 52.50
Bishops Road 52.00 (Doubtful runner)
Gallant Oscar 52.00
Holywell 51.00
Unioniste 51.00
Soll 50.5
Just A Par 50.50
The Romford Pele 50.5
Many Clouds 50.00
The Druids Nephew 49.50
Aachen 49.00
Black Thunder 48.50
Triolo D’Alene 48.00
Le Reve 48.00
O’Faolains Boy 47.50
Saint Are  47.00
Kruzhlinin 47.00
Ballynagour 47.00
Double Ross 47.00
First Lieutenant 46.5
Boston Bob  46.5
On His Own 45.50
Ballycasey 45.50
Silviniaco Conti  45.00
Buywise 45.00
Sir Des Champs 45.00
Vics Canvas 45.00
Rule The World 44.50
Gilgamboa 43.50
The Last Samuri  42.5
Morning Assembly 41.50
Shutthefrontdoor 38.00
Wonderful Charm 37.00
Ucello Conti 36.50





#4 – Breeding Statistics


Looking at Sires record

The records under these circumstances

3m 6f and longer

Graded Races

Fields of 13 or more

Good or Softer Ground

Not Cross Country or Hunter Chases


Safe Sires






Unproven Sires





Negative Sires












#5 – Final Conclusions About What May Be A Value Grand National Tip

Final decissions were made on Saturday morning.

Issues such as going and certain horses suitability to it or not

is normally best left to day of the race.

Odds available is also of course a key part of the thinking

of any value punter.

To read Guy’s final conclusions after interpreting his stats

and to see the logic he used to select the winner

Rule The World

See Here ==:> Grand National Tip Winner


Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on April 8, 2016

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