Horses To Follow

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10 Horses of Interest

Guy introduced a new element to the full member

messages this week.

I guess it is a little bit like a Horses To Follow Style
list based loosely around horses who ran ok from a pretty bad draw.

The core premise of it is that such horses can do better in
future races run on a more level playing field that perhaps as basic assessmentof their poor draw finishing position may lead on to believe.

There is of course a degree of appreciation for such stuff in betting
markets.

As such it can help to look at draw bias in a slightly different
stance than is commonly reported to the crowds.

He said to full members:

Draw Statistics are a major part of my daily message.

I don’t know anyone who looks at Draw biases in the

same way as I do and I think it works. It is impossible

to get the Draw right all the time but I think we do it

very well and often find the draw matters in races at

distances and tracks that most people do not realise.

I decided to come up with this list of horses to follow.

I have chosen them purely on the following criteria.

* I can illustrate they had a very bad draw last time

* I watched their last run on video and felt positive

 

He then went on to list ten horses he had noted

as worth adding to this list.

Below is one of his notes.

 

PROCLAMATIONOFWAR

* Ran well from Stall 15 at Beverley last time

* Since 2013 there have been 118 Beverley handicaps

* Thats 118 Beverley races at any and every distance

* No horse has won from 13 or higher at Beverley 2013-14

* That is over any distance and not just over 5f

* He was badly disadvantaged from Stall 15 in this race

 

With Horse To Follow lists I guess there may

be two main style of punter approach.

Those prone to seek mechanical methods

that require little thought may be more likely to

do something like bet each horse for the next X runnings

or until it wins.

Others will treat it just as a reminder of a horse

worthy of scrutiny and consideration in a future race.

Guy I guess would fall into that second camp.

He is not going to Account Bet something

just because it ran ok from a poor draw last time

and act blind to other key factors of form, other runners

and with zero consideration to the concept of value odds.

As it happens Proclamationofwar is running this evening (
Friday )

It is the first of his Ten Horse list to have a live run.

He covered the race in his Profiles and Previews section.

Profiles and Previews I guess you can consider as extra analysis
and viewpoint for races he examines while looking for firmer strong advices
for either his Optional Account of Full Account tips.

It is not uncommon for him to research and write five or six
several races daily yet find not one horse worth a proper bet.

His is a totally different thought train to the average
mug punter who more so says..”I am going to bet in this race..which horse will it be?”

I have copied that Profile & Preview piece below for
you

 

Musselburgh 8.40

Racing Posts Odds

6/4 Twin Appeal, 7/2 Beautiful Stranger, 6/1 Cahal

10/1 China In My Hands, 10/1 Miss Acclaimed, 10/1 Mitcd

10/1 Proclamationofwar, Torridon, 20/1 Lomond Lassie

33/1 Connexion Francais.

I sent a list recently of “10 horses of interest”
that had

recently run well from bad draws. The first of these is

running in this race. PROCLAMATIONOFWAR is on the

list so I need to mention him. He has been gambled.

Statistically he is quite weak though. I liked his race

over 5f at Beverley but he moves up to 7f today. In all

similar races Male horses going from 5f to 7f are 0-40

in similar races and I don’t like his profile. I will leave

it up to you but I couldn’t select him. Perhaps the split

stake is best with TWIN APPEAL having a good profile.

* Horses coming from 7f handicaps

* Running within 3 weeks

* 4 career starts

* 2 runs this season

* Starting under 10/1

* Beaten last time

* 4 horses had this profile finishing 2 W 4 W

* TWIN APPEAL has this profile

I don’t really want to bet TWIN APPEAL at the price

PROCLAMATIONOFWAR my draw horse is unsafe statistically

Maybe the compromise is a split stake bet

PROCLAMATIONOFWAR to place 11/0

TWIN APPEAL to win 6/4

 

Anyhow I just wanted let you know about this new angle on
the full service.

You may see future reference to it in Saturday Day Pass messages.

It could perhaps be notes on a new horse added to the list
or info about a past addition running that day.

If so at least now you have a fair idea of what it is all
about.

Best Wishes

Mick

Site Admin

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

 

NB If you want in for Guy’s Saturday Analysis here is the
link

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass

Note the 12 noon cut off point.

( this pos was originally sent by email friday evening )

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on May 24, 2014

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Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on May 16, 2014

Tags: , ,

Grand National Tip 2014

Ok our tuppence worth on the Grand National for you as promised.

 

Aintree 4.15

Grand National (Staked to £10 nominal total stakes for clarity)

COLBERT STATION 50/1 £4 Win £1 Place

RAZ DE MAREE 50/1 £2 Each Way

BURTON POINT 16/1 £1 Win

 

Today is mainly about trying to get the National
winner and for reasons given later I have ended
up on a couple of outsiders. I decided against a
Full account bet. In no hurry. I can’t imagine we
can do any better today than the last two days

G r a n d N a t i o n a l

I have spent a lot of time on the race perhaps a
bit too long and I am not confident this year. My
biggest headache is that since the race became
easier and the fences smaller it is hard to know
what to do with the smaller undersized horses.

Pre the changes I’d have ruled these out with a
bit of confidence but It isn’t safe to do this now.

It’s a problem as there are several smaller types
this year. Burton Port has one of the best profiles
and is well treated but he is undersized. He had
to make my shortlist. So too did Raz De Maree a
small horse again. The modifications have only
made judging these horses harder and the race
is more a burden than a pleasure at the moment.

 

 

A i n t r e e 4.15

Crabbie4s Grand National Chase
(Handicap) (Grade 3) 4m3f110y

8/1 Teaforthree, 10/1 Monbeg Dude, 12/1 Double Seven
12/1 Long Run, 14/1 Tidal Bay, 16/1 Burton Port, 16/1 Pineau De Re
16/1 Prince De Beauchene, 16/1 Rocky Creek, 20/1 Balthazar King
20/1 Big Shu, 20/1 The Package, 20/1 Triolo D4alene, 25/1 Lion Na Bearnai
25/1 Shakalakaboomboom, 33/1 Alvarado, 33/1 Chance Du Roy
33/1 Colbert Station, 33/1 Hawkes Point, 33/1 The Rainbow Hunter
40/1 Mountainous, 40/1 Mr Moonshine, 50/1 Across The Bay
50/1 Battle Group, 50/1 Last Time D4albain, 50/1 One In A Milan
50/1 Our Father, 50/1 Quito De La Roque, 50/1 Raz De Maree
50/1 Rose Of The Moon, 50/1 Vesper Bell, 50/1 Vintage Star
50/1 Walkon, 66/1 Buckers Bridge, 66/1 Golan Way, 66/1 Hunt Ball
66/1 Kruzhlinin, 66/1 Twirling Magnet, 66/1 Wayward Prince
80/1 Swing Bill.

The Grand National has changed recently and not many
people think for the better. The Fences have been made
easier making a level playing field. There were only two
fallers in last years race. No horses fell yesterday in the
Foxhunters either. It makes ruling out horses harder and
with several small undersized horses this year we can’t
make the safe assumptions we could in past years. That
said there are still many trends that have stood up over
many years in this race and still have since modifications.

I ran my angles very quickly just to see if there was any
stand out horse and they returned me 6 I could shortlist.

BALTHAZAR KING
LION NA BEARNA
MONBEG DUDE
BURTON PORT
SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM
RAZ DE MAREE

It is only the first of several steps to trying to find the winner.

* The last 24 winners had the following runs that season
* 7 4 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 2 5 4 6 7 6
* Clearly having 4-5-6-7 runs this year is ideal
* I can live with 3 runs if the horse is unexposed
* If he has under 21 National Hunt runs and 9-20 chase runs
* Only won Miinnehoma 1994 with 2 runs that year
* The following horses look underraced to me
* ROCKY CREEK – WALKON – THE PACKAGE
* RAINBOW HUNTER -CHANCE DU ROY – GOLAN WAY
* ROSE OF THE MOON – ALVARADO – LAST TIME D’ALBAIN
* SWING BILL – BIG SHU

 

* It is very important to have a recent race
* The past 21 winners all ran within 8 weeks
* I do not want a horse absent more than 60 days
* The last 21 winners were absent this many days
* 35 56 35 23 21 41 32 27 48 28 20 25 42 20 24 35 23 16 35 23 35 23 25
* Look at the absences of the Runner Ups
* Horses 2nd in the National had the following absences
* 49 30 45 49 25 27 21 22 22 100 35 23 63 345 28 16 44 18 42 21 23 23 102
* 19 of the past 23 Runners Ups also ran within 7 weeks
* I am prepared to have some leeway with 60 days absence
* The following horses fail this statistic
* ROCKY CREEK – BATTLE GROUP- MOUNTAINOUS
* PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE – RAINBOW HUNTER
* VESPER BELL – ROSE OF THE MOON
* MINELLA FOR VALUE – ALVARADO

 

* Horses aged 6 and 7 have appalling records
* They haven’t won since 1940 and few even finish the race
* Horses aged 6 and 7 are too young
* The following horses fail this
* TRIOLO D’ALENE – KRUZHLININ

* Chasing Experience is of obvious importance
* The previous 22 winners had the following Chase runs
* 23 27 12 12 24 14 13 10 11 37 41 14 12 24 17 25 10 23 16 9 14 28 14
* The least Experienced Chaser was Miinnehoma in 1994
* He had 9 previous Chase runs
* There were two more that had 10 Chase starts
* Horses with Under 9 Chase runs are unlike any past winners
* I looked at the Chase runs of the last 20 Runner Ups
* 9 11 10 24 18 11 13 15 23 14 20 10 11 9 19 14 9 8 24 32 22 8
* I would be wary of any horses with under 9 Chase starts
* The following horses and fail this statistic
* ROCKY CREEK (7) OUR FATHER (6) HAWKES POINT (7)
* VESPER BELL (8) ROSE OF THE MOON (6) ONCE IN A MILAN (6)
* MINELLA FOR VALUE (8)
* We have to bear in mind the race is changing
* The 2012 4th (Cappa Blue) had just 6 chase runs
* Mely Moss was 2nd in 2000 with 5 Chase starts
* Lord Atterbury was 3rd in 2004 with 4 Chase starts
* The race has been made easier recently

 

* 22 of the last 23 had raced in Graded Class before
* The vast majority of the runner ups also did this
* The ones that did not were mainly lightly raced
* Having No Graded form is not acceptable
* The following horses and fail this statistic
* KRUZHLININ is 7 and fails it lacking any Graded form
* MINELLA FOR VALUE also lacks Graded form

* DOUBLE SEVEN fails it despite having had 27 career runs
* He has never raced in Graded Class before either
* Half the price because MCCoy rides any value has gone
* Another thing I don’t like is that he is a small horse

 

* Class is important in a Grand National Winner
* 12 of the last 13 winners won in Listed Grade or higher
* The exception was Ballabriggs (2011)
* He had won in Class 2 race but hadn’t been tested in higher
* I’d argue he should be seen as a Graded winner
* He won the 2010 Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival
* It was a Class 2 handicap but he did that with Topweight
* That was more than worthy or a Graded win
* The following horses and fail this statistic

* MR MOONSHINE – TEAFORTHREE- BIG SHU – OUR FATHER
* VINTAGE STAR – HAWKES POINT- KRUZHLININ – PINEAR DU RE
* TWIRLING MAGIC – VESPER BELL- LAST TIME D’ALBAIN
* SWING BILL – ONCE IN A MILAN – NIGHT IN MILAN
* MINELLA FOR VALUE- ROSE OF THE MOON

 

* I think we should ignore the weight statistics
* The 2012 winner won with 11st 6lbs
* The 2010 winner won with 11st 5lbs
* Red Rum won with 11st 8lbs and again with 12st
* Corbiere won with 11st 4lbs and Grittar with 11st 5lbs
* L’Escargot won with 11st 3lbs and Gay Trip with 11st 5lbs
* I wont be ruling any horse out on their weight

* HUNT BALL seems an unlikely winner to me
* He fails only minor statistics though
* Such as winning more than 6 handicap Chases
* No past winner had won more than that
* Every winner since 1970 had won over at least 3m
* HUNT BALL hasn’t so I would ignore him

* PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE has not run in 79 days
* The last 21 winners all ran within 56 days and that’s a worry
* He also has to come from a 2m 4f race which is not ideal
* No recent winner did that when as exposed as he is
* He also has to prove he will stay
* His sire hasn’t yet bred a winner over 3m 2f or more

* TEAFORTHREE was 3rd in last years race
* He carries 5lbs less weight this year
* The main stat he fails is failing to win in Listed Grade or higher
* We know 12 of the last 13 winners had done that
* Personally 3rd last year is good enough to ignore that
* He is 1 year older this year and has 1 fewer runs this season
* When Ballabriggs won he has 12 Chase runs and 3 that year
* TEAFORTHREE has 14 chase runs and 3 this season
* TEAFORTHREE has also never won a Handicap Chase
* Past winners had won the following number of handicaps
* 3 3 3 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 6 0 4 4 5 4 3 3 1 1 2
* Only Bindaree won with 0 Handicap Chase wins
* TEAFORTHREE has more positives than negatives
* I don’t like his price though
* I don’t think a prep run in the Gold Cup helps him much either

* ACROSS THE BAY unseated rider last time
* Not the best preparation for a race like this
* He was 14th last year beaten 87 lengths in this race
* He has only finished in 10 of his 15 Chase runs
* I don’t like his lack of form in big field Handicap chases
* Look at his record in Handicap Chases with 11 + runners
* UR 8 14 7 PU PU PU UR
* His Sire’s won bred a winner over further than 3m 5f yet
* Too many doubts given a poor run in last years race

* BALTHAZAR KING may not get this distance by King’s Theatre
* I don’t want a Cross Country horse much as Silver Birch did it
* Won at Cheltenham I don’t like him enough here
* He was thrashed in this last year
* His trainer said after the race he did not get the trip
* Look at his sire King’s Theatre
* His runners in Listed and Graded races
* When running over 3m 2f they are 0-24
* He has winners in 3m 7f Cross Country races (Class 2)

* LONG RUN is a top class horse in regression
* After year of Grade 1 races this is his first handicap chase
* Past winners had ran in the following Handicap Chases
* 17 9 7 5 21 8 8 6 6 24 33 7 12 14 12 15 7 16 7 4 7
* LONG RUN has no experience in this kind of race
* He is Sired by Cadoudal who’s runners at 4m + are 0-16
* All 16 lost and just 1 managed to place over 4m +
* LONG RUN has ran 14 times since 2011
* His Worse 4 Racing Post Ratings were his last 4 races
* That shows regression and he lacks big field experience
* His Class may get him through but there are holes in his profile

* MONBEG DUDE has a reasonable profile
* Nothing statistical worries me about his chance
* Far from convinced his jumping is good enough
* He may want the ground to be softer as well
* You would also worry if a Flat track suited him
* At 14/1 he does not tempt me

* LION NA BEARNAI – I don’t really want a 12yo if I can help it
* Not sure he will stay this far either
* I did a search for all Graded Handicap Chases
* In recent years horses aged 12 or more are 1-174 in these
* LION NA BEARNAI fails that and looks wrong

* TIDAL BAY is 13 and has topweight
* The last winner aged 13 was back in 1923
* He certainly has the class and he may well win
* I just can’t live with a 13yo Topweight in the race
* Not given that 1-173 statistic that Lion Na Bearnai also fails

* BUCKERS BRIDGE has never won beyond 2m 4f
* I don’t think he will have the stamina or substance
* WAYWARD PRINCE probably wont cope in this race
* Not given the form he has shown recently
* QUITO DE LA ROQUE has to prove he will stay
* His Sire hasn’t bred a winner beyond 3m 1f yet
* He is a Mudlark without a turn of foot
* He may not find ideal conditions
* The last 21 winners had ran in at least 4 Handicap Chases
* QUITO DE LA ROQUE has only ran in one
* He hasn’t shown enough recently to risk him

* MOUNTAINOUS won the Welsh National
* He has 9 Chase starts which is borderline
* He has a longer absence than any past winner
* I’d prefer a more recent run and softer ground

* SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM may not have achieved fitness
* His recent form also suggests he is not fit enough yet
* Sometimes you have to look beyond these things
* This is a horse I would keep on side around 40/1
* I like his age and breeding
* May well have gone off to fast at Cheltenham
* Very nearly made the shortlist

 

S h o r t l i s t

* RAZ DE MAREE gets through all my main angles
* Biggest concern is he in smaller than ideal
* Another horse giving us a dilemma now the fences are easier
* He has won a Munster National easily albeit off a low weight
* He is riSky but his profile and price do offer something

 

* BURTON POINT has a very solid profile
* One of the strongest in the race and very attractive
* He is handicapped to win if he can return to his best
* My only worry with him is his size and the big field
* He is a small undersized horse and I don’t like that
* He won over hurdles in a 15 runner race
* He led all the way that day avoiding any traffic
* He was 2nd in a Hennessy in a big field which will reassure some
* He had a featherweight that day and was at his peak
* He has clearly been laid out for the race
* Big field and Aintree fences will be his main worry
* I find it hard to bet a small undersized horse in a big field

 

* COLBERT STATION – I have backed him at 75/1
* He passes all my “Must have” statistics
* At that price I’d expect some problems though
* Tony MCCoy has rejected him
* Not worried. Mc Coy doesn’t think statistically
* He chose wrong twice at Cheltenham in big races
* He has chosen a small horse without any Graded form
* His reasons for doing this were simply ridiculous
* COLBERT STATION Fell in last years race
* I would think he did considering he had just 5 Chase starts
* He had a longer absence than the previous 21 winners as well
* He shouldn’t really have run
* This is a good horse though
* He has a Racing Post Rating of 159
* He has won a 22 runner Chase worth 89k very easily before
* He now has 9 Chase starts which is my bare minimum
* I appreciate that’s not many but he is a 75/1 chance
* He was going very well before falling at the 15th last year
* Clearly his jumping is a worry
* COLBERT STATION has not finished in 2 of his last 3 Chases
* That worries me but last years winner fell several times before
* Since the Fences were made easier it’s less of a problem
* I can live with that considering he is a 75/1 chance on Betfair
* Trained by Ted Walsh he has several recent excuses
* He has probably been trained for this race all season
* He is too smart to right off
* His experience in last years race shouldn’t be considered
* I think it has been and that’s why he is such a big price
* Don’t forget he was a 12/1 chance last year with more weight
* I also like he is a 10 year old as this statistic shows

This is an interesting statistic. Older horses dominated recently.

2010 – The 1st 2nd 3rd 5th 6th 7th 8th were aged 10 or more

2011 – The 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th were aged 10 or more

2012 – The 1st 4th 5th 6th 7th were aged 10 or more

2013 – The 1st 2nd 4th 5th 6th were aged 10 or more

 

Selection

COLBERT STATION 50/1 £4 Win £1 Place

RAZ DE MAREE 50/1 £2 Each Way

BURTON POINT 16/1 £1 Win

 

Best Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on April 5, 2014

Cheltenham Gold Cup Analysis

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Cheltenham 3.20

LAST INSTALMENT 7/1 Win Bet

ON HIS OWN 22/1 Each Way

The main issues are well documented. I feel
LAST INSTALMENT has every chance and has
one of the best two profiles. My each way bet
ON HIS OWN is obviously a hard case to make.
I think he is a crazy sort of price and although
many argue he fails trends it is not necessarily
the case. I think these 2 have serious chances.

 

Cheltenham 3.20

betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

7/4 Bobs Worth, 5/2 Silviniaco Conti, 13/2 Last Instalment
8/1 Triolo D´alene, 14/1 The Giant Bolster 16/1 On His Own
25/1 Lord Windermere, 33/1 Teaforthree
40/1 Lyreen Legend, 50/1 Katenko, 66/1 Cloudy Too
66/1 Knockara Beau, 100/1 Houblon Des Obeaux.

* The Blue Riband event of the festival
* Lets get rid of the No Hopers
* Horses aged 11 and over have not won this race since 1969.
* KNOCKARA BEAU is too old and not good enough
* KATENKO and CLOUDY TOO are outclassed
* HOUBLON DES OBEAUX is not good enough
* TEAFORTHREE is out of his depth

* TRIOLO D´ALENE won the Hennessy last time out
* Bobs Worth did that recently but I can’t have him
* Bobs Worth was a Grade 1 Festival winner
* TRIOLO D´ALENE has never run in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race
* His 2 previous runs here were heavy defeats
* TRIOLO D´ALENE is rated only 158 far too low

* LORD WINDERMERE and LYREEN LEGEND are connected
* They were 1st and 2nd in last years RSA Chase at the festival

* LYREEN LEGEND was 2nd in last years RSA Chase
* It would worry me he has won just 1 of 8 Chases
* He is rated lower than any recent Gold Cup winner
* The last 23 winners had this in common
* They had a Racing Post Rating of 155 + last time out
* LYREEN LEGEND only managed a rating of 154
* After 18 career starts 154 is his highest Racing Post Rating
* Every other horse has bettered that rating before
* That amongst other things must rule him out

* LORD WINDERMERE has a similar profile and problem
* He is rated lower than any recent Gold Cup winner
* The last 23 winners had this in common
* They had a Racing Post Rating of 155 + last time out
* After 15 career starts 157 is his highest Racing Post Rating
* Almost every other horse has bettered that rating before
* LORD WINDERMERE only managed a rating of 157

Now if LYREEN LEGEND or LORD WINDERMERE win this
race at a big price it will be down to the fact the course
ground or time of year brings them alive but I suspect it
was a very poor RSA Chase last year which was openly
said at the time and these two dominated a bad renewal
and it is hard to make a case for them when they have a
set of numbers that just look so far behind the standard.

SILVINIACO CONTI

I don’t doubt he has enough ability to win this race but
I feel he is too short around 100/30 for a horse that may
not stay. When he fell in last year’s race some argue he
wasn’t beaten but I doubt he would have stayed on well
enough to win. I question his stamina. I don’t like horses
that are undersized like him. He isn’t a big horse and he
is not proven yet in a field as big as this. Statistical he’s
fine but I don’t like his size and question his stamina as
he is taking on some big Irish improvers with substance.

BOBS WORTH

Little doubt he’s top class and won this last year and was
always going to have a good profile this year. He has got
a massive chance but not really for me. I wouldn’t want to
ask him to win this again. It was a gruelling race last year
and he was in trouble at one stage before staying on late.
On this ground he could find himself in more trouble and
having to come from off the pace. We can’t be sure last
years race has not left it’s mark. Last season he recorded
Racing Post Ratings of 167 174 and 181 yet this year from
two runs he has clocked just 142 and 163 and there is the
possibility he won’t recapture last years form. He is still
the most likely winner but at the price I am against him.
He touched 10/1 in running last year and on fast ground
he could easily do the same this year. I just don’t like the
short price when he will be carrying battle scars this year.

 

THE GIANT BOLSTER

* THE GIANT BOLSTER now has 19 previous chase runs
* Recent Gold Cup winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 8 9 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11 Chases
* He is now out of range of the ideal profile
* 16 of the last 17 winners had 13 or fewer Chase runs
* He was 4th last year and 2nd in 2012 though
* He Loves the track and has plenty of class
* I did see him as a potential each way bet at 16/1
* He wants fast ground and a small field
* He should love the ground but the field size worries me
* 14 runners is not as small as I’d like
* I think he is at the limit of his stamina
* He has won over 3m 1f 100 yds before
* His Sire has not yet bred a winner winning over further
* You couldn’t rule him out but maybe just falls short

ON HIS OWN

* This horse is a 10 year old
* Horses aged 10 or more have a 1-93 record since 1993
* It’s not the best of records but don’t worry about that
* He is a late foal and actually not quite 10 yet in real terms
* ON HIS OWN does have only 12 career starts though
* 16 of the last 17 winners had 13 or fewer Chase runs
* That goes a log way to compensating for his age
* He also didn’t start racing until he was almost 6 years old
* I have mentioned I think he will win the Grand National
* He has every right to run here after a brilliant last win
* His last 2 runs show significant improvement
* There is a case that he jumps a bit right handed
* He has won left handed three times before though
* The track is an open question mark
* Ignore his poor run here back in 2011 over 4m
* He had no chance in that race and it’s irrelevant
* He was 4th in a Neptune Hurdle which is encouraging
* Ability wise I think he has everything he needs to win
* Just not sure about whether he can deliver here or not

LAST INSTALMENT

* He is a lightly raced improver
* He won the Irish Hennessy last time
* He has won 5 of his 6 Chase runs so far
* Recent Gold Cup winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 8 9 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11 Chases
* LAST INSTALMENT has 6 runs and I quite like that
* One of his problem is No form at Cheltenham
* That is a disadvantage he has to overcome
* 13 of the last 16 winners placed at a previous Cheltenham Festival.
* The other is the ground as most of his form’s on soft
* Said to have fragile tendons it would be a worry
* That said the new course is slower than the old course
* He has a very appealing profile and the potential to win

 

Selections

LAST INSTALMENT 7/1 Win Bet

ON HIS OWN 22/1 Each Way

For Live best odds see

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Posted under Major Horse Races

Cheltenham 2014 – Day 2

Mathematician 1840

No Account Bet 

Day 2 of the Festival usually the quietest day for
bets and no account bet today.  I think we have
to be very realistic. The last 3 races on the card
are next to impossible. Tactically it makes sense
to turn these races down and use that time for a
lot of serious races tomorrow. Therefore today is
a 4 race message as only 4 races can be sorted.

I will give my Best Bet from the message which
will send a shiver down the spine of many of you.

My own personal best bet is a variation of this
bet but as this is in the “Without the favourite”
market I can’t go with it as some won’t get on.

 
Today’s Best Bet
 
Cheltenham 3.20

SOMERSBY 16/1 Each Way

SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 – Saver Bet

Cheltenham Selections

Cheltenham 1.30 – FAUGHEEN 6/4

Cheltenham 2.05 – DON COSSACK 14/1 Each Way

Cheltenham 3.20 – SOMERSBY 16/1 Each Way
Cheltenham 3.20 – SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 – Saver Bet

Cheltenham 4.00 – BALTHAZAR KING 6/1 Win Bet
Cheltenham 4.00 – BIG SHU 4/1 Saver Bet

 

 

Today’s Bets

 
Cheltenham 3.20

SOMERSBY 16/1 Each Way

SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 – Saver Bet

 
Obviously choice is limited from 4 races. I would
not put FAUGHEEN up at a short price but I could
easily have done something with Sire De Grugy,

Cheltenham 1.30 – FAUGHEEN 6/4
Cheltenham 3.20 – SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1

I did consider the each way double
I also considered 2 win bets and an each way double

My own personal biggest bet today will be this

Cheltenham 3.20

Without The Favourite Market

SOMERSBY 12/1- 14/1 Each Way

14/1 Ladbrokes
12/1 Corals PPower Chandler
10/1 bet365 9/1 Boyles

Obviously this is “Un-tippable” in a Novelty market
as most people would not get a bet on so Instead
I will go with the following as my best bet today.

Cheltenham 3.20

SOMERSBY 16/1 Each Way

SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 – Saver Bet

Saver Bets

Just to clarify the issue with Savers. When I suggest
a saver the purpose is to make sure you break level
on the bet if the saver wins. The main selection will
be the horse to try and get the profit. The saver has
the job of recovering stakes if the main bet loses.

 

Generic Statistics
            
* No Horse Qualifies today
* Partly due to no handicap chases

 

 

Y e s t e r d a y ‘s  S u m m a r y

Very interesting day full of highs and lows with the
worst of it being two account losers. I pointed out
that this was always possible and that the winners
may come in the other races and they did. Happy
enough with a message that went P L L W W L P.

I was pleased we had the Supreme Novice winner
much as that was only as the saver. With Hindsight
I should have gone with the winner but my angles
worked out well and pleased me. Dodging Bullets
could only managed 4th but ran well enough. The
bet on TOUR DES CHAMPS 16/1 Each Way looked
good as he was bowling along nicely in front with
plenty in trouble behind. The problem is that it’s a
hard thing to make all and he paid a bit and then
dropped back. What was incredible was he came
back at them and stayed on and was only beaten
a Neck for 4th place. He was that close to Placing
that it felt unlucky. The Generic Statistics were so
disappointing in the race it was a double blow for
us. Maybe the unusually fast ground was the main
reason those angles did not work out. Overall the
race was a disaster. It got much better with JEZKI
winning the Champion Hurdle at a big price. The
horse has been on my radar for weeks it was just
annoying I couldn’t be more confident. QUEVEGA
was brilliant. We made money on the race which
was the important thing in a low key race. Sadly
jubilation turned to misery with FOXROCK despite
travelling like a really good horse he either paid
for one or two mistakes or didn’t get the trip. The
combination of both killed him. ATTAGLANCE was
a desperately unlucky second. At least we won a
bit each way but he would have won that race if
his jockey hadn’t gone for a gap that wasn’t there.

So overall a 2-0 account bet day is disappointing
but we had winners and no luck at all especially
Tour Des Champs failing to place by a neck after
making all the running and Attaglance robbed by
a bad ride. Given how hard this meeting is I think
we came out of yesterday with plenty of credit.

 

 

P R O F I L E S    &   P R E V I E W S

 

C h e l t e n h a m   1.30

Neptune Investment Management Novices4 Hurdle
(Registered As Baring Bingham Novices4 Hurdle)
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m5f

9/4 Faugheen, 7/2 Red Sherlock, 6/1 Rathvinden
12/1 Lieutenant Colonel, 14/1 Ballyalton
20/1 Cup Final, 20/1 Fennell Bay, 25/1 Killala Quay,
0/1 Cocktails At Dawn, 50/1 Cole Harden, 50/1 Knock House
50/1 Shanahan4s Turn, 66/1 Creepy, 100/1 Twelve Roses
200/1 Midnight Thunder.

* This is a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 2m 5f
* Look at the past 10 winners of this race
* They had achieved the following Racing Post Ratings
* Thats the best ratings achieved before they ran in this race
* 156 153 145 161 158 136 147 146 145 148
* 9 of the last 10 winners had a figure of at least 145
* Only Fiveforthree (2008) had not done that
* FENNELL BAY’s best figure is a measly 126
* FENNELL BAY is a 5 year old with 2 hurdle starts
* Miles to find on the numbers I couldn’t touch him
* BALLYALTON has only done a 136 ratings
* He is a 7 year old not the best age either
* LIEUTENANT COLONEL has achieved a 139 RPR
* That means 9 of the last 10 winners achieved more
* I like that he has improved on each performance
* He does have quite a bit to find with a few of these
* KILLALA QUAY – I don’t want a 7yo pulling up last time
* CUP FINAL is a 5yo with 2 hurdle runs
* All the big guns have more hurdle runs
* That should catch him out and he is rejected

Shortlist

* RED SHERLOCK has won all of his 6 races
* His best performance was last time and he is 2-2 here
* I do have some concerns though
* He had a hard race in heavy ground last time out
* I would be worried that took too much out of him
* He is reported to swish his tail once whipped

* RATHVINDEN was 2nd behind Red Sherlook last time
* He had an interrupted preparation before that race
* He doesn’t have much to find as he is 3lbs better off
* Looks a solid each chance with two flaws
* He is not the stable number 1. That is Faugheen
* He is also not the biggest of horses
* RATHVINDEN could easily place here

* FAUGHEEN is Willie Mullins Number 1
* He is unbeaten 3 of which were in hurdles
* Clearly a high class prospect to be considered
 
Conclusion

I think FAUGHEEN has more improvement than
Red Sherlock and is the most likely winner. It’s
tempting to go with RED SHERLOCK each way
given there are issues with FAUGHEEN not least
fluency in his jumping. You could argue a good
case for FAUGHEEN in an each way double too.
There are sorts of staking options here such as
a split stake bet with FAUGHEEN to win and the
place bet on RATHVINDEN. I think we are spoilt
for choice with staking options and much has to
depend on what sort of bets and risk you prefer.
FAUGHEEN – RED SHERLOCK – RATHVINDEN are
my 1-2-3 in that order. I will go with FAUGHEEN

Selection

FAUGHEEN

 

 

C h e l t e n h a m   2.05

RSA Chase (Grade 1) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m110y

 5/1 Ballycasey, 6/1 Smad Place, 13/2 Morning Assembly
7/1 Carlingford Lough, 8/1 Corrin Wood, 10/1 Don Cossack
10/1 Le Bec, 10/1 Sam Winner, 12/1 O4faolains Boy
14/1 Many Clouds, 16/1 Annacotty, 20/1 Black Thunder
25/1 Just A Par, 33/1 Gevrey Chambertin, 50/1 Samingarry.

* The RSA Chase is a Grade 1 over an extended 3m
* Just a few background statistics to show a certain type
* The last 14 winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 3 5 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4
* The last 14 winners had these Hurdle + Chase runs
* 11 9 11 11 12 9 10 10 18 11 9 9 8 9
* They all had at least 3 runs that season as well
* Every winner since 1991 ran within 53 days
* The last 49 winners all had a run in the same calendar year
* The last 7 winners were aged 7
* Horses aged 6 have underperformed over the years
* Only 2 have won since as far back as 1978

* ANNACOTTY  is a 6 year old which is a problem
* He technically is not 6 for another month anyway
* The weights suggest he will struggle anyway
* I couldn’t have him from a Novice Handicap
* GEVREY CHAMBERTIN is 6 and far too inexperienced
* LE BEC is not 6 for another 2 months
* With a nasty absence he has to go
* SAMINGARRY is outclassed
* JUST A PAR is too inexperienced and lacks the class
* The last 14 winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 3 5 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4
* BALLYCASEY only has 2 Chase starts a serious worry
* I do not like that lack of inexperience over fences
* The last 14 winners had these Hurdle + Chase runs
* 11 9 11 11 12 9 10 10 18 11 9 9 8 9
* BALLYCASEY only has 6 National Hunt runs
* He just looks short  of experience to me
* 19 of the last 21 winners had at least 9 career starts
* BALLYCASEY is not for me with just 6
* There must be a chance he won’t stay anyway
* His 4 runs over 3m or more were all defeats
* Admittedly 3 were in Point to Points but it’s a worry
* SMAD PLACE has placed in a World Hurdle
* That was one of 7 times he has lost in Grade 1 races
* His 3 Chase runs were all in Non Graded races
* The last 11 winners all had form in Graded Chases
* SMAD PLACE lacks that and has a questionable profile
* With 19 runs he’d be the most exposed winner in years
* SMAD PLACE doesn’t do it for me
* Not with a recent heavy ground win
* BLACK THUNDER’s profile is not that bad
* Certainly as good as you could hope for a 25/1 chance
* Held on form there look pacier types against him
* Not keen on his size or his prospects on the ground
* We know the last 11 winners all had form in Graded Chases
* SAM WINNER does not have that
* CORRIN WOOD does not have that
* SAM WINNER has run on the flat which isn’t ideal
* He looks a tough more exposed than would be ideal
* Will like the ground but a lack of graded chase form worries me
* CORRIN WOOD also lacks graded chase form
* The other strike against him is his absence
* Longer than any winner since 1991 albeit not by much
* CARLINGFORD LOUGH unseated rider last time out
* Thats not a good sign at all
* The last 26 winners of this race were 1-2-3 last time out
* He is also 8 which isn’t the best age
* He has 19 runs which is more than any recent winner
* He has 13 Chase starts which sounds too many
* Recent winners had 5 3 5 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4 Chase runs
* CARLINGFORD LOUGH may not be the right type
* MANY CLOUDS is a decent enough chaser
* I don’t mind his profile but he is not my first choice
* Over trips of 19f 20f 21f he is W 2 W 2 W W
* Over trips of 22f or more he is 2 2 PU
* I just don’t like his better record over shorter
* Not keen on his trainer or his record in big fields either
* O4FAOLAINS BOY won the Reynoldstown last time
* That’s not the best of preparations winning that race
* A bit short on experience with 3 Chase runs with a Pulled Up
* Can’t be ruled out but I don’t see enough positives
* MORNING ASSEMBLY has a 73 day absence
* We know the last 49 winners ran in the same calendar year
* That absence is a negative about his profile
* He has never ran away from soft ground either
* These issues and no track form are the main worries
* Otherwise he looks a smart prospect
* DON COSSACK could go well if his jumping holds
* I like his profile and his recent race
* Many will assume he can’t reverse form with Ballycasey
* I wouldn’t be so sure over this 3m trip which
* DON COSSACK has won on good ground
* I see him as the value in the race

Selection

DON COSSACK 14/1

Each Way

 

 

 

C h e l t e n h a m   3.20

BetVictor Queen Mother Champion Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m

9/4 Sire De Grugy, 9/2 Captain Conan, 11/2 Arvika Ligeonniere
7/1 Baily Green, 10/1 Hinterland, 10/1 Kid Cassidy
12/1 Sizing Europe 14/1 Module, 14/1 Somersby
20/1 Special Tiara 25/1 Wishfull Thinking.

* This is a Grade 1 Chase over 2 miles

* The form horse is clearly SIRE DE GRUGY
* He tops the Official ratings and Racing Post Ratings
* There are doubts if you want to oppose him
* He has never been to a Cheltenham Festival before
* That’s unusual and his Cheltenham form is questionable
* There is more than a suspicion this may not be his track
* His Jockey is talented but is hardly a positive
* Jamie Moore is 0-55 riding at the festival
* SIRE DE GRUGY has also had a busier season than I’d want
* The last few winners had the following runs that season
* 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 1 4 4 4 2 4 5 3 7 3
* SIRE DE GRUGY has 5 runs this season
* That is more than the last 17 winners had
* I think there are plenty of doubts about him

* Horses aged 11 + rarely have the Speed to win.
* They did win in 2005 and 1977 but are best opposed
* The age of recent winners is as follows
* 9-9-9-6-5-6-8-11-7-9-8-8-9-10-10-7-8-7-8-8-8-9-8-9
* SIZING EUROPE wouldn’t interest me as a 12yo
* This race started in 1959 and only the 1977 winner was 12
* WISHFUL THINKING is 11 and makes limited appeal
* Horses aged 10 haven’t won since 1998

* BAILY GREEN has 21 previous Chase runs which is a lot
* Past winners had the following number of Chase starts
  7 7 9 13 12 8 9 8 22 8 11 18 23 4 24 12 11 11 18 14 9 15 14 8
* The last 8 winners had 7-13 Chase runs
* There are some before that with a similar number of runs
* He was 2nd in an Arkle so should be respected
* He comes here losing his last 9 races though
* Well beaten over hurdles last time doesn’t inspire either
* His 21 Chase runs produced a best 158 Racing Post Rating
* That should not be good enough to win
* There are horses in this race with better ratings last time
* Arvika Ligeonniere, Captain Conan, Sire De Grugy, Wishfull Thinking
* These 4 horses recorded better Racing Post Ratings last time out
* They had better ratings that BAILY GREEN has in 21 Chase starts
* I may be wrong in looking at this approach
* I appreciate the ratings are all under different circumstances
* It still puts me off BAILY GREEN in a Grade 1 off level weights

* HINTERLAND is a 6 year old
* It would worry me he has just 5 Chase starts
* Recent winners had the following number of Chase starts
* 7-7-13-12-8-9-8-22-8-11-18-23-4-24-12-11-11-18-14-9-15-14-8.
* Since 1989 only 1 winner had under 7 Chase starts
* That was the 1999 winner who had 4 Chase starts
* The 2007 winner was 6 but the hot favourite fell that year
* The last 6 year old to win before that was in 1973
* HINTERLAND – You don’t want a 6yo with just 5 Chase runs

* KID CASSIDY has to be given a chance
* His career best run has come over 2m at Cheltenham
* His last run was poor though not a good sign
* 30 of the last 32 winners were 1-2-3 last time out
* The only 2 that were not both fell
* No winners have won after such a poor run as he had

* MODULE – I just don’t see enough I like
* SPECIAL TIARA disappointed last time out
* I can forgive that on heavy ground in a small field
* He was beaten here in December over 2m
* He was 3rd behind Kid Cassidy and Sire De Grugy
* SPECIAL TIARA was really having his seasonal debut that day
* He’d fallen at the first on his first run of the year
* He has to improve but it’s not a huge amount to find

* ARVIKA LIGEONNEIRE has the track to overcome
* 8 of his 9 career wins were going right handed
* His 2 Cheltenham runs were both well below expectations
* So much class I couldn’t rule him out
* There are too many doubts about track and ground

* CAPTAIN CONAN is the type to win at the Festival
* He looked like winning last years Jewson but didn’t stay
* This 2m distance could suit him best of all
* CAPTAIN CONAN has 6 Chase starts
* Recent winners had the following number of Chase starts
* 7-7-13-12-8-9-8-22-8-11-18-23-4-24-12-11-11-18-14-9-15-14-8.
* CAPTAIN CONAN is 1 short of being ideal
* I can overlook that much as I’d prefer 7 Chase runs
* I also have to overlook just 1 run this season
* Past winners had the following runs that year
* 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 1 4 4 4 2 4 5 3 7 3
* Only 8yo Flagship Uberalles has won with 1 run this year
* Said to be working well after a back injury
* I see him as a potential winner but I need to turn a blind eye
* To his 6 Chase runs and just 1 run this season
 

Part of me wants to go with CAPTAIN CONAN each way
and to ignore my concerns instead relying on the skills
of Nicky Henderson who is sure to have him close to his
best. Everyone knows ARVIKA LIGEONNEIRE’s flaws but
surely 8/1 is a big price. Then I decided to review what
I feared most about SIRE DE GRUGY. I decided to isolate
2m Cheltenham performances on Racing Post Ratings.

Racing Post Ratings
Cheltenham runs only
2 Miles only
Since 2012

174 Sizing Europe
170 Sire De Grugy Sizing Europe
162 Kid Cassidy Wishful Thinking
161 Special Tiara
158 Baily Green
157 Wishful Thinking
155 Somersby
154 Captain Conan
147 Kid Cassidy

Sizing Europe has the best figure and joint 2nd best
which were recorded at the 2012 and 2013 Festivals.
I don’t want to go with him as a 12 year old but clear
2nd best is SIRE DE GRUGY with a course & distance
Racing Post Rating of 170 which is 8lbs higher than
all other runners. This leads me to think that there’s
no real case for saying he doesn’t like the track and
it will surely be difficult to rule him out of the 1-2-3.
It won’t be palatable to some but we are talking just
11 runners of which 4 are outsiders and 1/4 the odds.
 
SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 Each Way is a good bet

However

SOMERSBY is 16/1

SOMERSBY is also in the “Without the favourite” market

This is betting without SIRE DE GRUGY

14/1 Ladbrokes
12/1 Corals PPower Chandler
10/1 bet365
9/1 Boyles

Now I appreciate 10 years old is a bit older than ideal

I appreciate he doesn’t have the best record here and
it is not his course and you can argue he has had his
chance. But he was 2nd in an Arkle and placed in the
Supreme Novice. He has placed in a Grade 1 here as
well and he is effective. It’s not his ideal track but the
horse has some good runs here before.

Besides that people are saying Sire De Grugy doesn’t
like this track and Arvika Ligeonniere hates it as well.

No Sprinter Sacre. This must be the worst Champion
Chase for donkey’s years. He likes a small field and a
quicker surface as well. He surely must be the value

He won the Haldon Gold Cup just 3 runs ago

He was then 2nd in the Tingle Creek just behind Sire De Grugy

Last time he unseated rider but he was only 11/4 to beat
Sire De Grugy in that race and now he is much bigger.

Final Selection

“Without the favourite” market

SOMERSBY 12/1 or 14/1 Each Way

Anyone who can’t get on this market can
bet SOMERSBY each way 16/1 in this race.
 
SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 – Saver Bet

 

 

C h e l t e n h a m   4.00

Glenfarclas Handicap Chase
(A Cross Country Chase)  (CLASS 2) (5yo+) 3m7f

4/1 Big Shu, 5/1 Balthazar King, 8/1 Sire Collonges
8/1 Star Neuville, 9/1 Love Rory, 10/1 Any Currency
11/1 Quantitativeeasing, 12/1 Bishopsfurze, 14/1 Sizing Australia
14/1 Uncle Junior, 16/1 Diamond Harry, 16/1 Quiscover Fontaine
20/1 A Stray Shot, 20/1 Duke Of Lucca, 25/1 Hey Big Spender
33/1 Sin Palo.

* The Cross Country Chase has 9 past renewals
* DIAMOND HARRY – I don’t think he stays this far
* LOVE RORY – I don’t want a 6 year old in these races
* He is not technically a 6 year old for a few more weeks anyway
* He won a Cross Country race at Punchestown last time
* He beat Big Shu that day but the latter needed the race
* He has no Cheltenham form and has too much to prove
* UNCLE JUNIOR is wrong as an out of form 13 year old
* STAR NEUVILLE doesn’t do it for me
* I don’t like him coming from a 2m 4f race
* Not with just 1 run this season
* The 9 past winners had the following Chase starts
* 7 13 17 48 11 15 14 16 30
* STAR NEUVILLE has only had 5 chase starts
* QUANTITATIVEEASING looks too riSky
* Not sure he has the experience in this discipline
* QUISCOVER FONTAINE – Not for me on this ground
* BISHOPSFURZE fell on his cross country debut
* Not a good experience and the ground is faster than ideal
* His sire hasn’t yet bred a winner over 3m 2f or more
* He has yet to show this track suits him
* May win but he has plenty to prove
* SIZING AUSTRALIA is a past winner of this in 2011
* Not sure you can rule him out on ground he likes
* I just don’t want a 12 year old on drying ground
* He was well beaten in last years race
* SIRE COLLONGES – No killer stat to rule him out
* Far from convinced he is good enough though
* ANY CURRENCY has a 9 3 2 cross country record
* Should go well but I don’t think he fully stays this far
* He comes from a handicap chase. No winner did that
* I thought a place was more likely than a win

Shortlist
 
* BIG SHU won this race easily last season
* Huge player again but he is 18lbs higher this year
* He is also very lightly raced this season
* The first 8 winners of this had 5 3 9 3 3 6 4 4 runs that year
* BIG SHU won last year with 1 run and a point to point as well
* My worry is whether he is just short of a run
* He does  have improvement in him so must be considered
* 1 run this year makes him a Saver rather than selection

* BALTHAZAR KING has 117 days off and topweight
* I don’t think that’s an impossible task
* The 2010 winner had 88 days off and that weight
* BALTHAZAR KING won this in 2012 but didn’t run in 2013′s year
* The ground is also in his favour
 
Selection

BALTHAZAR KING 6/1 Win Bet

BIG SHU 4/1 Saver Bet

 
****************************************************
****************************************************

   

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Posted under Major Horse Races