Lincoln Analysis

Last week I posted up here some advance stat work for the Lincoln at Doncaster.

One of Guy’s mantras here would be

 

“It’s not the stats that are important.

It’s the interpratation of the stats that is important”

 

Below for you is how Guy himself interpreted things last Saturday.

He did so very well as you can see with main selection Bravery

going on to win the race.  The market did not fancy Bravery much.

He drifted to 20/1 SP and Betfair paid a whopping 34.67 in the win market.

==================================================

 

DONCASTER 3.35

4/1 Yuften, 6/1 Donncha, 10/1 Top Notch Tonto
12/1 Bravery, 14/1 Battle Of Marathon, Dolphin Vista
Oh This Is Us, 16/1 Third Time Lucky, Zhui Feng
20/1 Gabrial, Instant Attraction, You’re Fired
25/1 Eddystone Rock, Heaven’s Guest
Lucy The Painter, George Cinq, Highland Colori
Master Carpenter, Steel Train, Withernsea
40/1 Dream Walker, Emell.

The Lincoln
I start off here with not much interest
Racing Software can’t be trusted in this race
One of the annual races to ignore software
Just going to have a go and see what happens

I am ignoring the horses aged 7 or more
The Draw could be a factor here
Last years winner came from Stall 22
That put a bit of a spanner in the works

Go back to 2001
Doncaster have had 152 races over 8f
Horses drawn 17 or higher have a 1-64 record
That winner was last year
But he came up the middle of the track
I’d be very wary of extreme low and high draw

DONNCHA looks too riSky drawn 21
When he has a breeding doubt as well
His sires runners over a Mile or more
Have a 0-19 record in Class 3 or higher

The issue with “recent runs” is complicated
Especially with horses aged 5 or more
Not going to try and dissect this issue
But I have problems with some older types
Who have some kind of recent runs

YUFTEN for example has an unsafe profile
As a 6yo coming from a 7f Listed race this year
THIRD TIME LUCKY has 3 runs in 2017
He has Stall 1 though which can’t help
He has a 7lbs claimer who has never ridden him
Never raced here before and rode in just 9 races
5lbs & 7lbs claimers are 0-61 in this and Spring mile
YOUR FIRED has a recent run but over 10f
WITHERNSEA maybe should be shortlisted
But a Mile first time worried me for him
BATTLE OF MARATHON was 3rd last year
But he had 3 warm up races last year
This year he is a seasonal debutant
He also has more weight and no runs since July
No horse has won the Lincoln absent that long

Shortlist

BRAVERY 16/1 – Drawn 20 perhaps a bit high
DOLPHIN VISTA 14/1 not ruled out
STEEL TRAIN 28/1 – 3 runs this year want him onside
OH THIS IS US 12/1 – 2 Meydan runs helpful

Selection

£2 Each Way BRAVERY 16/1

£2 Each Way DOLPHIN VISTA 14/1

£1 Win Bet OH THIS IS US 12/1

£1 Win Bet STEEL TRAIN 28/1

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on April 6, 2017

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Wimbledon Ante Post Tennis Bet

As promised on our free newsletter earlier today
below is a copy of Guy’s “Bet of The Year”

Such a  title is perhaps best attached after
a bet has won however. Along those lines
I’d say Rule The World at 50/1 for the
2016 Grand National still holds the
crown for Bet of The Year.

Very unusually this is a sports bet and not a horse.

The below was sent out to full member
clients here earlier this morning.

Unfortunately I do see the Wimbledon markets odds
on our man have contracted a bit since then.
Typically 16/1 now.

If our man wins tonight they may contract further.
If he loses then a bit of outward drift over time
may be no surprise.

Anyhow below is what Guy said earlier today.

===================================

Friday March 31st – 9.27 AM

Today’s bet could be the Bet of the Year
Normally such Tipster spiel revolts me
But it does have huge potential to be that
In a few months time we may call it that

Today my bet is an Ante Post Sports Bet
Highly unusual for me to advise any sports bet

I am doing this partly on instinct
Partly on a phone call I have had
Partly because it looks a certain arb
And I would like it on the account early

But my main reason
Is something in my gut is telling me
That this could be the bet of the year

********************************************
TODAY’S STAKED BET

Ante Post

Sports Bet

Wimbledon Tennis Championships

NICK KYRGIOS 20/1

Each Way

Half the Odds 1,2

22/1 bet365 Betfair Betbright Independents
20/1 Ladbrokes Hills Sky betfred VC Paddy Power
20/1 Stan J Boyles Independents

********************************************

TODAY’S MESSAGE

I’ve discussed the Tennis Bet elsewhere
There is never a good time to tip these bets
But I don’t think we will regret this one
We are getting 10/1 to reach the final
The draw is not as important as people think
And if we wait for that he will be 10/1 outright

One idea may be splitting stakes

£3 Each Way Kyrgios 20/1 at Wimbledon

£4 Win Bet at 6/4 to beat Federer tonight

If he wins tonight you have a great free bet
Winning or losing this evening
Would make no difference to the Wimbledon bet
I would have no more or less confidence
Regardless of how tonight’s match goes

TENNIS

My Tennis Man has rung me
Says at Midnight tonight in the Miami Open
Semi Final match
NICK KYRGIOS plays Roger Federer

Nick Kyrgios is 6/4 to win
Some of you will know his reputation
One of a young and talented brat
His recent form has apparently been superb
Said to be the next new big thing in the game
I notice he is now only 16/1 for Wimbledon
Anyway he tells me he can beat Federer tonight
Tells me to expect something special from this kid
Says he has not dropped his serve all year
Got his temperament under control
I don’t know much about it
I know Kyrgios won their only previous match
But he tells me I must watch this match
And is pushing me toward betting Kyrgios at 6/4

The conversation then progressed a bit
I said wasn’t 9/2 to win the Tournament a bet ?
He said if he beats Federer
He probably would be favourite to beat Nadal
Then we went on to talk about WIMBLEDON

Bet of the Year ?

Wimbledon

Nick Kyrigios 20/1-22/1 ?

Possibly ?

This kid is on a huge upward curve
It is Half the odds 2 places
My Tennis man says 20/1 is massive
He says it is a certain arb before Wimbledon
Djokovic has lost the plot with his liquid Diet
Federer is just getting older and older
The same applies to Rafa Nadal
He says Kyrgios is a better player than Raonic.
Murray of course will be a serious threat
But this year is ripe for a big new talent
And that 20/1 is starting to look very big

 

 

 

Posted under Main Content

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 31, 2017

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Lincoln Handicap Stats

We sent these out to full members earlier in the week
to assist any who fancied a bit of an ante post dabble on the Lincoln Handicap.

I’d describe these as “profile of the race” style stats or “major race trends”.

 
Knowing form traits that past winners exhibited or form traits
that produced mainly past losers is an obvious useful tool to have
when short listing contenders for a possible bet this year.

And if you want one point of my tuppence worth of general
good advice to using such major race trends that may be ..

Don’t fall into the trap of looking for the horse with
the most positive form trait ticks as the only possible bet.

In the long run you are after value.

A Form tick perfection horse can be everyone’s
obvious choice and too short a price.

Be happy to accept a degree of imperfection
when you feel it compensated for by odds.

 

==============================================

 

Ante Post Statistics

Lincoln Handicap

Age of recent winners
4 6 5 5 6 6 4 4 4 5 6 4 4 4 6 5 5 5
Horses aged 7 + have a 1-86 record
All 59 that ran in the last 12 years beaten

 

March-April
Class 2 handicaps on turf over 8f
There are 88 of these races since 2000
Horses aged 7 +  had a miserable 2-220 record
None of them had form in Group races before

 

Horses aged 6 + have a 10-426 record
The vast majority were seasonal debutants.
6 year olds running within 90 days
Have a worrying 1-213 record

 

4 year olds won 8 of the last 18 renewals
Horses aged 4 are best with 4-20 starts
Most are untested in pattern races
Fillies aged 4 are 0-7 in the last 17 years
4 year olds are best with a long absence
Last years 4yo winner ran in Meydan in February
No 4yo came from a 3yo handicap
No 4yo  lost 10 + lengths last time

 

No 5yo winners ran in an English Group race before
The Lincoln winner rarely has English Group form
There are 124 that tried and only one managed to do it
Last years winner did the first since the 2004 winner

 

Horses with under 4 runs are 0-8
Horses with 21 + runs won 8 of the last 23 renewals
6 of the 8 seasonal debutants
None of them carried 9st 5lbs or more
None of them raced in Group Class before

 

8 Past winner ran recently on the All weather
4 of them came from Dubai
4 ran within the previous 15 days
These 4 horses waged 5 5 4 5
None were beaten more than 4 lengths last time
They all Placed in a Class 2 handicap last time
None came from 7f or shorter
They all had 8st 11lbs or less

 

No winners came from a Class 4-5-6 handicap
Horses from 6f races won in 1994 and 1995
Both seasonal debutants aged 4 or 5
Both had 8st 6lbs or less
Horses from 9f or more won 5 of the last 12 renewals
No horse has won from a 3 year old handicap
You want a horse from a handicap last time
5lbs and 7lbs claimers are 0-36 in recent years

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 31, 2017

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Cheltenham Gold Cup Analysis 2017

Cheltenham Gold Cup Analysis
Today’s Bet

Split Stake Bet
to a £10 total nominal stake.

Cheltenham 3.30

Gold Cup

£5.00 Win OUTLANDER 11/1

£3.00 Win DJAKADAM 100/30

£2.00 Win NATIVE RIVER 9/2

 
I like this strategy
I think Djakadam will win
But the value has gone now
OUTLANDER has the best profile
Gordon Elliots is on record as saying
He is not in the same league as Don Cossack
That has helped the price a lot
He may be right
But he may not need to be good enough

I have “Bought” my dangers out of the race
This means we are on OUTLANDER at 6/1
With cash back if Djakadam or Native River wins
Very optimistic OUTLANDER can beat the rest
Cue Card has some strong statistics against him
Sizing Europe has to prove stamina
He is only 6 years 10 months old and not a 7yo
Which is a problem also facing Native River

The open issue I can not nail
Is we have horses 6 years and 10 months old
Who come here with recent races
We have horses aged 8 and 9
Who come here with longer absences

Which of these groups are more suitable
Will probably hold the key to the race
Statistically there is no clear cut answer
But I know many recent renewals
Went to 9 year olds with very similar absences
To the one that OUTLANDER has today
And I feel he is a pretty decent choice of bet
A bet I personally think is well staked and protected

 

 

Cheltenham 3.30

Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup
(Grade 1) (5yo+) 3m2f70y

10/3 Djakadam, 7/2 Cue Card, 7/2 Native River, 8/1 Outlander
8/1 Sizing John, 10/1 Empire Of Dirt, 12/1 More Of That
16/1 Champagne West, 20/1 Minella Rocco, 20/1 Bristol De Mai
50/1 Smad Place, 50/1 Tea For Two, 66/1 Saphir Du Rheu
66/1 Irish Cavalier
The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f

Horses with under 15 Chase runs are best
The more over that you have
The less your chance of winning

The last 21 winners had the following chase runs
18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
Only 2 of the last 21 winners had over 13 Chase starts
Kauto Star was one of those
Don Cossack also managed it last year
That does not bother me
Last year was a small field full of non stayers
Most fancied runners had over 13 Chase runs last year
It was the weakest Gold Cup in years

Cue Card – 28 Chase runs
Irish Cavalier – 19 Chase runs
Smad Place – 16 Chase runs
Djakadam – 14 Chase runs
Bristol De Mai – 12 Chase runs
Saphir Du Rheu – 12 Chase runs
Champagne West – 11 Chase runs
Native River – 10 Chase runs
Outlander – 10 Chase runs
Sizing John – 9 Chase runs
Minella Rocco – 8 Chase runs
More Of That – 7 Chase runs
Tea For Two – 7 Chase runs

CUE CARD has problems
I do not like the fact he is 11 years old
Or that he also has 28 previous Chase starts
Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969
All 41 that ran in the last 20 years lost.
Horses aged 10 or more are just 1-102 since 1992
Older horses like CUE CARD struggle in this race
So to do horses with over 13 Chase starrs
CUE CARD with 28 chase runs is too exposed
There is a Breeding angle against him too
CUE CARD is sired by King’s Theatre
If you look at the sires Grade 1 -2 winners
None have won beyond 3m 1f yet
CUE CARD is opposed

Ignore the other horses with over 15 Chases
IRISH CAVALIER does not look good enough
SMAD PLACE has twice failed in this race
SMAD PLACE is 0-12 in Grade 1 races now
Very hard to see some of these being good enough
SAPHIR DU RHEU is rated some way behind the best
He may not stay this far anyway
TEA FOR TWO is talented but miles behind on form
This track hardly seems likely to improve him

MINELLA ROCCO comes here Fell & Unseated
Hardly a Gold Cup winning profile
Because of falling early on last time
He has had just over 2 races this season
Since 1982 there have been 5 winners aged 7
These 5 winners ran 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
MINELLA ROCCO has fewer than all of them
That leaves him short of all recent 7yo winners
That’s why I can’t commit to him

CHAMPAGNE WEST has plenty to prove
He is not proven over 3m or more in Graded Class
His sire Westerner does not inspire me much
Horses sired by Westerner
Running in Class 2 or higher
Running over 3m 2f or more
Have a 0-21 record so far
CHAMPAGNE WEST may not stay

BRISTOL DE MAI is a 6 year old
In fact he is only 5 years 10 months old
That has to be a chilling thought
When Long Run won this as a 6 year old
He did so with an official rating of 179
BRISTOL DE MAI is only rated 154
I will be surprised if he has enough to win

MORE OF THAT has had a disappoiting season
Probably does not matter given his trainer
He was a beaten favourite in last years RSA Chase
No surprised there given he failed multiple angles then
My biggest worry is that he is sired by Beneficial
Not a sire I could trust in Grade 1 races over 3m 2f
MORE OF THAT is still only rated 157
And comes here unseating his rider last time
But I suppose he is the least experienced chaser
He has more scope than Most
He is a Cheltenham Festival winner over hurdles
And a Career best today is highly likely
Bt I think he falls short on a few things
His Jockey is 1-102 at the festival
His Jockey is 0-45 in Chases at the festival

 

 
Shortlist

SIZING JOHN
NATIVE RIVER
DJAKADAM
OUTLANDER

 

 
SIZING JOHN has to prove his stamina
Go back a year and he was running over 2 miles
One of my biggest problem with him
Is that he has only raced once over 3 miles
I may be wrong but I see that as a problem
His Sire has not had a Graded winner over this far
If he stays he is a player but I have my doubts
He is not the biggest of horses either

NATIVE RIVER has had a great year
Won a Hennessy a Welsh National and Denman Chase
I suppose if you nit pick a bit you find some issues
I think he has to be part of the staking plan
But I don’t think he is without criticism

DJAKADAM has 14 Chase runs
He is within the acceptable range for this race
DJAKADAM was runner up in 2016 and 2015
Both years he raced just twice during that season
This year he has also had just 2 prep runs
I would have liked more to be honest
But it has been done and by 8 year olds
And you can argue this is an easier race this year
What swings it for me is last years race
DJAKADAM was only a 7 year old last year
We know all past 7yo winners of this race since 1982
Had raced 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
DJAKADAM last year had under 2 warm up races
He had 1 proper race and fell at the 10th in his prep run
That Fall caused him to suffer an interrupted preparation
DJAKADAM did a Racing Post Rating of 177 last year
He did that in this race when underraced as a 7yo
With an interrupted preparation as well
When he was second in the 2015 renewal
He was technically only 5 years and 10 months
And short of races as well that season
The more I think about him I must upgrade him

OUTLANDER has a nice profile
I don’t think we can underestimate him
Last time out on Racing Post Ratings
OUTLANDER produced a career best 170 run
He has to prove he stays this far
His sire has a Grade 1 winner over 3m
None in this class over further though
But that is not to say he can not stay
And his Numbers are showing consistent improvement
For me he must be part of the staking plan
He is 11/1 and coming off a career best run
Having won a recognised trial race easily

Look at the Ages on the shortlist

SIZING JOHN – 7 year old
NATIVE RIVER – 7 year old
DJAKADAM 8 year old
OUTLANDER 9 year old

This may be relevant

7 year olds have not won for 10 years now
All 17 that tried were beaten since then
Technically if we look at foaling dates

NATIVE RIVER is not yet a 7 year old
SIZING JOHN is not yet a 7 year old
Neither have yet reached their 7th birthday

That pushes me more towards the older pair
DJAKADAM and OUTLANDER

OUTLANDER is 9 years old
He has an absence
If I look at 9 year olds
Absent more than 46 days
Starting under 20/1
Coming from 3m or shorter
Coming from a PatteRn race
I find a 5-13 record
They won in the following years
1999 2004 2009 2010 2012 2016
OUTLANDER must have a serious chance

Gun to my head
I think DJAKADAM will probably win
But too many people think the saver
The value has been sucked out of his price

At the prices I think this is a decent bet
We Buy NATIVE RIVER out of the race
We Buy DJAKADAM out of the race

Leaving OUTLANDER with a good profile
And a Career best last time out
To beat a handful of dangers all with flaws
Selection

£5.00 Win OUTLANDER 11/1

£3.00 Win DJAKADAM 100/30

£2.00 Win NATIVE RIVER 9/2

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 17, 2017

Tags:

Each Way Bet Robbery

With helping to run a horse racing site I am in a better position than many to hear about things that irk and annoy racing punters.  A lot of the same things annoy me too.

One regular little annoyance is when a non runner scuppers my each way bet.

For example I place an each way bet on an eight runner race that will payout if my horse finishes 1st , 2nd or 3rd.

What Happens?

The law of Sod- that’s what.

Some no hoper horse gets withdrawn then with seven runners there are only two places.

My horse comes third.

The bookmaker keeps my money.

Despite being aware of the risk of such stuff I still can’t help feeling a bit gubbed and cheated by the system.

But is there a way to fix this and create a world where less punters have to experience that bad feeling?

I believe so and I sense future  hope as I ranted about in our free newsletter today.

I have stuck a copy on line at this link

eachway scuppering bookmaker rules

 

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on October 14, 2016

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