Grand National 2016

Grand National Stats – Ratings – Breeding

Guy has been doing a bit of extra research for full members this

week into the Grand National.

I have collated most of it here for you.

He has concocted a pretty complicated ratings system

awarding points for certain elements of form.

 

Similar last year did semi ok.

It did not pick up the winner Many Clouds

but his nine horse short list did highlight

2nd and 3rd horses Saint Are and Monbeg Dude

who returned 13.48 and 16.02 in the Betfair

Exchange place markets.

 

I guess there will always be a degree of personal

choice with such things.

Some may be prone to go full hog to find the one winner from forty horses.

Others may see logic in aiming for a more achievable place.

 

Best wishes and good luck for the National

I hope the info below is a bit of extra help if

you like to pick your own.

 

If you prefer to read to Guy’s personal final opinion

on the day for the Grand National and multiple other races just book in at

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass

Cheers

Mick

Site Admin


 

#1 – Race Statistics

 

Horses aged 6 and 7 are far too young
They haven’t won since 1940 and few finish the race

Horses aged 8 need looking at
Only 4 of the last 38 winners were 8 year olds
If you bet an 8 year old make sure it is actually 8
Be aware some horses are younger than their age
If Foaled after the day of the race they are really under 8
Most 8yo winners were foaled early before the race
Those foaled in May or later look opposable
They are just 7 and a few months old
Horses aged 13 can also be opposed with some confidence

Older horses dominated recently.

2010 The 1st 2nd 3rd 5th 6th 7th 8th were aged 10 or more
2011 The 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th were aged 10 or more
2012 The 1st 4th 5th 6th 7th were aged 10 or more
2013 The 1st 2nd 4th 5th 6th were aged 10 or more
2014 The 1st 2nd 6th were aged 10 or more
2015 The 3rd 4th were aged 10 or more

The last 27 winners had the following runs that season
4 7 4 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 3 5 4 6 7 6
Horses with 1-2-3 runs that season underperform
None have won with just 1 run
Only Miinnehoma 1994 won with 2 runs that year
He had 9 Chase starts and 17 career runs
I can live with 3 runs if the horse is unexposed
If under 25 National Hunt runs and 9-20 chase runs

Runs Since January 1st that year
Past winners had the following runs
2 2 3 2 3 2 3 1 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 4 3 2 3 3 4
20 of the last 21 winners had at least 2 runs since Jan 1
Horses with under 2 runs in this period perform badly

It is very important to have a recent race
The last 25 winners were absent this many days
29 23 35 56 35 23 21 41 32 27 48 28 20
25 42 20 24 35 23 16 35 23 35 23 25

The last 25 winners all ran within 56 days
Look at the absences of the Runner Ups
56 24 49 30 45 49 25 27 21 22 22 100 35
23 63 345 28 16 44 18 42 21 23 23 102
20 of the past 25 Runners Ups also ran within 7 weeks

Class is important in a National Winner
13 of the last 15 winners won in Listed Grade or higher
Ballabriggs (2011) did not do that
He had won in Class 2 race but hadn’t been tested in higher
I’d argue he should be seen as a Graded winner
He won the 2010 Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival
It was a Class 2 handicap but he did that with Topweight
That was more than worthy or a Graded win
Pineau De Re (2014) did not do that either
He was 2nd in a Grade race though
24 of the last 25 had raced in Graded Class before
The exception was Ballabriggs (2011)
Again I make the point he could be seen differently
The vast majority of the runner ups also did this
The ones that did not were mainly lightly raced
Horses with 25 + runs must have past Graded Form
Having No Graded form is a serious worry

Do not rule out highweights who scored well recently
Many have won before and the fences are easier now

Chasing Experience is of obvious importance
The previous 24 winners had the following Chase runs
10 11 23 27 12 12 24 14 13 10 11 37 41 14 12 24 17 25 10 23 16 9 14 28 14
Least Experienced Chaser was Miinnehoma in 1994
He had 9 Chase runs and 3 other winners had 10 Chase starts
Horses with Under 9 Chase runs are unlike any past winners

I looked at the Chase runs of the last 20 Runner Ups
21 22 9 11 10 24 18 11 13 15 23 14 20 10 11 9 19 14 9 8 24 32 22 8
I would be wary of any horses with under 10 Chase starts
10 of the last 15 winners had just 10-15 previous Chase start

We have to bear in mind the race is changing
The 2012 4th (Cappa Blue) had just 6 chase runs
Mely Moss was 2nd in 2000 with 5 Chase starts
Lord Atterbury was 3rd in 2004 with 4 Chase starts
The race has been maid easier too

21 of the last 22 winners had 3-4-5-6-7 Chase wins before
They had 5 3 5 11 4 4 3 5 4 3 3 5 7 3 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 4 5 Chase wins

You want a decent Jumper
15 of the last 16 winners had not fallen more than twice before
This was the only statistic the 66/1 winner in 2013 failed
I wouldn’t rule a horse out on this statistic
Every winner since 1970 had won over at least 3m
The record of horses from 2m 4f or shorter is poor
This is worse when its a Chase over 2m 4f or shorter

I Looked at horses from handicap chases over 2m 6f or less
No horse won doing that with 21 or more runs
Recent winners had ran in the following Handicap Chases
1 9 16 9 7 5 21 8 8 6 6 24 33 7 12 14 12 15 7 16 7 4 7
Every winner bar 1 ran in at least 4 Handicap Chases
Horses running in 5-12 Handicap Chases did well
They won 15 of the last 23 renewals
Number of Handicap Chases won
Recent winners had won the following Handicap Chases
1 2 3 3 3 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 6 0 4 4 5 4 3 3 1 1 2
No past winner had won more than 6 Handicap Chases
Seasonal Debutants should be avoided
Not having headgear is preferable to having it
Past Winners had the following number of wins that year
3 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 3 1 1 1 0
There were 7 winners coming from Cheltenham
The 1994 1996 2015 winners came from the Gold Cup
Bindaree 2002 came from the Trophy Handicap (6th)
The 2010 2014 winners came from the Pertemps H’Cap Hurdle
Silver Birch 2007 came from the Cross Country race
Ideally I’d like good chase form in a big field
Ideally I’d avoid horses that were Novices last year

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#2 – Grand National Ratings Rules

 

Each horse starts with 50 Points

Horses aged 7 – Subtract 5 Points
Horses aged 8 – Subtract 2 Points
Horses aged 8 Foaled after May 1st- Subtract 1 more point
Horses aged 10 – Add Half a Point
Horses aged 11 – Add Half a Point
Horses aged 12 – Subtract 2 Points
Horses aged 13 + Subtract 5 Points
Horses aged 8 have a 2pts deduction
Add an extra Point if they have won a Graded Chase before

Previous runs since August 1st 2014
Horses with 0-1 runs in this period – Subtract 5 points
Horses with 2 runs in this period – Subtract 3 Points
Horses with 3 runs – Subtract 0.5 points
Horses with 2 runs and 21 + Chase starts – Subtract another 2pts
Horses with 3 runs and 21 + Chase starts – Subtract another 1pts

Runs Since January 1st  2015
Horses with under 2 runs since Jan 1st – Subtract 2 points
If having 21 + Chase starts – Subtract another 1 point

Horses absent 56-65 Days- Subtract 1 point
Horses absent 66-85 Days – Subtract 2 points
Horses absent 86-96 Days – Subtract 3 points
Horses absent 97-119 Days – Subtract 3.5 points
Horses absent 120 + days – Subtract 4 points

Horses winning Listed/Graded races – Add 1 point
Horses without any Graded form – Subtract 3 points
No point deductions for high weights this year

Horses with Under 9 Chase starts – Subtract 3 points
Horses with under 3 Chase wins – Subtract 1.5 points
Horses with 3 or more Chase Falls – Subtract 2 points

Horses who did not win over 3m or more – Subtract 3 points
Horses that have won over 3m 3f or more – Add 1 point
Horses coming from 2m 4f or shorter – Subtract 1.5 points
If that 2m 4f race is a Chase – Subtract 0.5 extra point
Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter – Subtract 1 point
If that horse has 21 or more career runs – Subtract 0.5 more points

Horses with Under 3 Handicap Chase runs – Subtract 2pts
Only deduct 1 point if they have won a Grade 1-2 Chase
Only deduct 1 point if they have placed in a Grade 1 Chase
Horses running in 5-12 Handicap – Add a Point
Never won a Handicap Chases – Subtract 1 point
Won 7 or more Handicap Chases – Subtract 1 point
2 or more wins since August 1st 2014 – Subtract 1 point

Horses coming from Cheltenham Handicaps
Winning last time in that race – Subtract 1.5 points
Horses coming from any Cheltenham race
Beaten over 15 lengths in that race – Subtract 1pt
Horses that raced over hurdles since Aug 1st – Add 1 point
Horses starting 25/1 + last time if it was a Chase – Subtract 1.5pts

Horses that fail my Breeding Statistics will also face deductions

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#3 – Grand National Horse Ratings

 

Theoretically the higher the number the better the chance

The Best profile on these scores belongs to Goonyella.

I have ignored rating 7 year olds as I know they would not score well.

A few total outsiders I have also ducked.

 

Goonyella 53.00
Rocky Creek 52.50
Bishops Road 52.00 (Doubtful runner)
Gallant Oscar 52.00
Holywell 51.00
Unioniste 51.00
Soll 50.5
Just A Par 50.50
The Romford Pele 50.5
Many Clouds 50.00
The Druids Nephew 49.50
Aachen 49.00
Black Thunder 48.50
Triolo D’Alene 48.00
Le Reve 48.00
O’Faolains Boy 47.50
Saint Are  47.00
Kruzhlinin 47.00
Ballynagour 47.00
Double Ross 47.00
First Lieutenant 46.5
Boston Bob  46.5
On His Own 45.50
Ballycasey 45.50
Silviniaco Conti  45.00
Buywise 45.00
Sir Des Champs 45.00
Vics Canvas 45.00
Rule The World 44.50
Gilgamboa 43.50
The Last Samuri  42.5
Morning Assembly 41.50
Shutthefrontdoor 38.00
Wonderful Charm 37.00
Ucello Conti 36.50

 

 

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#4 – Breeding Statistics

 

Looking at Sires record

The records under these circumstances

3m 6f and longer

Graded Races

Fields of 13 or more

Good or Softer Ground

Not Cross Country or Hunter Chases

 

Safe Sires

MANY CLOUDS – SILVINIACO CONTI

FIRST LIEUTENANT -HOME FARM- UNIONISTE

BALLYCASEY -GOONYELLA – SOLL -ON HIS OWN

THE LAST SAMURI – PENDRA – VICS CANVAS

 

Unproven Sires

GALLANT OSCAR -O´FAOLAINS BOY

ONENIGHTINVIENNA – LE REVE – TRIOLO D´ALENE

BISHOPS ROAD – KATENKO – HOLYWELL

 

Negative Sires

SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR – ROCKY CREEK – KRUZHLININ

THE ROMFORD PELE -WONDERFUL CHARM – BUYWISE

THE DRUIDS NEPHEW- ROYALE KNIGHT – BOSTON BOB

GILGAMBOA -BALLYNAGOUR -MORNING ASSEMBLY

PERFECT CANDIDATE – HADRIAN´S APPROACH

SAINT ARE – DOUBLE ROSS – RULE THE WORLD

JUST A PAR – AACHEN – BLACK THUNDER – UCELLO CONTI

SIR DES CHAMPS

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#5 – Final Conclusions About What May Be A Value Grand National Tip

Final decissions were made on Saturday morning.

Issues such as going and certain horses suitability to it or not

is normally best left to day of the race.

Odds available is also of course a key part of the thinking

of any value punter.

To read Guy’s final conclusions after interpreting his stats

and to see the logic he used to select the winner

Rule The World

See Here ==:> Grand National Tip Winner

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on April 8, 2016

Tags: , ,

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip 2016

Cheltenham Gold Cup Analysis

As past promised Guy’s Cheltenham Gold Cup thoughts
are copied below for you.

He has a very good record in this race as you can see

2015 – Holywell placed at 12/1 & SamWinner – Lost
2014 – On His Own ew @ 22/1 2nd by a nose
2014 – Last Installment @ 7/1 Lost
2013 – Long Run ew @ 5/1 Placed
2012 – Synchronised WON 10/1
2011 – Long Run WON 5/1
2010 – Imperial Commander WON 12/1

2009 – Albertas Run Lost 14/1
2008 – Denman WON 9/4
2007 – No Bet
2006 – Hedgehunter 2nd 20/1 – Forget The Past
3rd 9/1

So as you can see losing years as well as winning ones but

the net big picture is very positive.

Fingers crossed for a good result today
but win lose or draw you can see you are fishing
in what has been a productive pool.

Over to Guy

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Cheltenham 3.30

£8 Win Don Poli 5/1
£2 Saver Cue Card 4/1

We have a Great Gold Cup record
To be perfectly honest
I did this race a few days ago
I was dying to go with Road to Riches
And have a saver on Don Poli
But that horse ran in the Ryanair
So I am promoting Don Poli to selection
For me he is the Natural Gold Cup winner
Nothing else can win this race on paper
But as you know they don’t run on paper
There are factors I can not control here
Not least Ground and Tactics
And how this may help the non stayers
So rather than Go each way
Which I normally would and probably should
I am going with a Saver
And betting Don Poli as a win bet

Cheltenham 3.30

Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1)

11/4 Don Cossack, 7/2 Djakadam, 4/1 Cue Card
9/2 Don Poli, 9/1 Road To Riches, 9/1 Smad Place
25/1 Carlingford Lough, 50/1 O´faolains Boy
66/1 Irish Cavalier, 66/1 On His Own.

The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y
I like lightly raced horses in this race
I want a horse that has roughly 5-14 Chase runs
The last 20 winners had the following chase runs

3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
Only Kauto Star has won with more than 13 Chases

This is a problem for the following horses

On His Own – 27 Chase runs
Cue Card – 21 Chase runs
Carlingford Lough – 20 Chase runs
Don Cossack – 18 Chase run
Sir Des Champs – 15 Chase runs

Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969
All 40 that ran in the last 19 years lost.
ON HIS OWN is rejected aged 12

Horses aged 10 do not have a great record either
Horses aged 10 + have a 1-96 record since 1992

CARLINGFORD LOUGH is 10 years old
He is sired by King’s Theatre
This sire has bred 98 Graded winners
Those that ran beyond 3m 2f were 0-48
I failed him in last years race for the same reason
I don’t think he stayed then or will today

CUE CARD has exactly the same problem
He is also 10 and we know these underperform
But CUE CARD is also by King’s Theatre
This sire has bred 98 Graded winners
Those that ran beyond 3m 2f were 0-48

IRISH CAVALIER is not good enough
O´FAOLAINS BOY is impossible to fancy

SMAD PLACE has had a great season
He has won the Hennessy and was 4th in the King George
I opposed him in this race last year
He was well beaten but he is a better horse now
SMAD PLACE started life on the flat albeit abroad
No winners since 1979 had ran on the Flat
I also find him on the exposed side with 28 Chase runs
Having so many hurdle runs (14) is also a bad sign
I know he has won a Hennessy
But I don’t think he stays the Gold Cup distance
SMAD PLACE is also 0-12 in Grade 1 races
I don’t think he has the stamina in this class

DJAKADAM was second in last years race
Obviously that earns him a lot of respect
He was a young horse last year
He doesn’t seem to have gone backwards
I do have one problem with him
Because he fell last time out at the 10th fence
He has only had 1 run and 10 fences this season
Since as far back as 1982
Only 5 horses aged 7 have won the Gold Cup
These 5 winners had 5 4 4 3 4 runs that season

7 Year Old Gold Cup winners since 1982

Kuato Star had 5 runs that season in 2007
War of Attrition had 4 runs that season in 2006
Kicking King had 4 runs that season in 2005
Best Mate had 3 runs that season in 2002
Imperial Call had 4 runs that season in 1996
DJAKADAM only has 1 run and 10 fences

DON COSSACK is clearly very talented
His 2 Festival appearances have yet to succeed
My main problem is he has 18 Chase starts
The last 20 winners had the following chase runs
3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
19 of the last 20 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts
Only Kauto Star has won with more
That stops him being the selection
Far from convinced he fully stays this far
His sire has bred just 1 winner over 3m 2f or more
That winner came in a Class 7 race

Shortlist

DON POLI is a 7yo
He has 12 career starts 6 Chase runs and 3 this season
Look at Best Mate back in 2012
He had 12 career starts 6 Chase runs and 3 this season
DON POLI has exactly the same profile
Different types admittedly but a solid enough profile
Some argue he is too slow but I don’t by that
He’s won a RSA with the longest absence in 50 years
You can not pigeon hold a horse as quickly as that
Yes the drying ground could be an issue
Yes he could find himself a little outpaced at times
And I do have some reservations on that score
And Bryan Cooper has chosen Don Cossack
It is for those reasons I am making him a win bet
Rather than an each way bet
Because of that I am having a saver
I don’t fancy CUE CARD much
But if DON POLI does disappoint
Then none of them are sure to stay
And the race has to be won by something

Selection

£8 Win DON POLI 5/1

£2 Saver Cue Card 4/1

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Other Info

#1 – Note this advice above was from the full members "Profile
& Preview" section.

In short that is a race Guy examined but in the end decided
edge of value was not sufficient to meet his picky standards
for an official tip. If interested you can see longer term
profit chart for the stuff he does decide is an official tip.

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/profit-chart.asp

#2 – Our Cheltenham sale page is still live if you are interested.
Forget about Cheltenham and it still offers a half price month
1 of full membership. It is a good opportunity to come in
and see how a long term profitable service works. See with
with your own eyes in real time etc. The super simple refund
guarantee gives you chance to examine and later change your
mind. The offer page will come down after the weekend when
I get back to work on Monday.

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

 

#3 – The Saturday Day Pass is available in its usual spot
if you are more interested in Saturday Only

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass

Note the 11am Saturday morning cut off time for the Day Pass.

 

Best Wishes
Mick
Site Admin
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 18, 2016

Tags: ,

Welsh Grand National

This is a copy of Guy’s Welsh Grand National analysis from last weekend.
I am popping it up here as it helps illustrate a few key points which I will discuss at the base of the page.

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1 Profile & Preview bet

Welsh National day albeit rearranged but still an
important race for us if not our signature race of
the year. This week has been dominated by the
weather and the glorious winning run we’ve had.

The unbeaten winning run has now ended which
takes pressure off and allows us to get back to a
normal routine as my messages this week looked
distorted as this was about winners not analysis.

Today is simply dominated by the Welsh National
with the primary aim to stake a bet on the winner.

If I had been on a bad run then I would have had
a safer bet but we have earnt the right this week
to try and end it with a bit of glory even if this is
a contest that will be run in desperate conditions.

 

Today’s Bet

Chepstow 1.45

Part Win Bet Part Place Bet
2 Savers
Staked to £10 For Guidance

Main Bet

WOODFORD COUNTY 14/1

£6 Win + £2 Place

Savers

MOUNTAINOUS 10/1 £1 Win

BOB FORD 16/1 £1 Win

WOODFORD COUNTY

Try and Get 5 Places
The best places to go are below
The best firms are top of the list

18/1 1/4  1-2-3-4     888sport – 32Red
16/1 1/4  1-2-3-4-5  bet365 – PPower- Corals
16/1 1/4  1-2-3-4     stan james – Betway
14/1 1/4  1-2-3-4-5  Skybet- ToteVCLadbrokes-Hills
14/1 1/4  1-2-3-4     Boyles – Spbet

Staking Plan

If BOB FORD wins we will win a small amount

If MOUNTAINOUS wins we can’t lose

If WOODFORD COUNTY Places we can’t lose

WOODFORD COUNTY winning is the main bet
If he wins we will have a winner around 11/1
With Money back chances on 3 other eventualities

 

Chepstow 1.45

WOODFORD COUNTY 14/1

£6 Win + £2 Place

Savers

MOUNTAINOUS 10/1 £1 Win
BOB FORD 16/1 £1 Win

Philip Hobbs is a top class trainer
This horse may yet be very good
At least good enough to win this off 10st 3lbs

We don’t know he is not very good yet
He has only had 12 Chase starts
He was favourite last year and finished 7th
Well beaten last year that will put many off

It has pigeon holed him into an unwelcome category
One of lacking the Class to win
And not being suited to the race
That is why he is 16/1 this year
There is a good chance he has been misjudged

He has had 6 runs in 2015
The first 5 were defeats
There were cast iron excuses for each run
His last race he won
That was a career best Racing Post Rating
Off a featherweight on ground he loves
I think he has an outstanding chance

Chepstow   1.45

Racing Post Odds

15/2 Cogry, 8/1 Mountainous, 8/1 Upswing
9/1 Emperor´s Choice, 9/1 Shotgun Paddy
12/1 Tour Des Champs, 14/1 Black Thunder
14/1 Bob Ford, 14/1 Return Spring, 14/1 Woodford County
16/1 Benvolio, 16/1 Red Devil Lads, 20/1 Bertie Boru
20/1 Fourovakind, 20/1 Masters Hill, 20/1 Saroque
25/1 Firebird Flyer, 25/1 Portrait King, 33/1 Allez Vic
33/1 Chase The Spud.

The Welsh National

Handicap Chase over 3m 5f run on Heavy Ground

BLACK THUNDER surely has too much weight
Much more than any other horse
It takes a Gold Cup performance to win with 11st 12lbs

I am taking out horses with poor recent runs
Go back to 2003 in this race
Horses beaten more than 12 lengths last time are 0-74
MASTERS HILL didn’t do enough last time
Not the right age and unsafe on Breeding stats
His Sires runners over 3m 1f + in Class 2 + are 0-15
None of the 15 that tried did better than a 5th place
BENVOLIO ran too badly last time out as well
He is sired by Beneficial which is a worry
I go into more detail about this sire later
BENVOLIO was 2nd in last years race
He’s had 3 runs since and all were miserable efforts
ALLEZ VIC lost too badly last time and fails the 0-74 stat

It’s now 20 years since a 10 year old won back in 1993
FOUROVAKIND is 11 but we should see him as a 10yo
As he would have been 10 without the abandonment
He badly fails my breeding statistics too
PORTRAIT KING is 11 and net a 10 year old
He is older than ideal and comes here PU and Fell
CHASE THE SPUD has nowhere near enough backclass

I need to deal with horses sired by Beneficial
Horses by Beneficial rarely win similar races
Ignoring Hunters and Cross Country races
The Sires runners over 3m 4f and more are just 1-101
Just take those in Graded races and all 34 lost
BENVOLIO (Already rejected) has this sire
UPSWING and RED DEVIL LADS also share this sire
I have to be a bit careful here
Beneficial did sire the runner up last year
UPSWING from this sire can’t be ruled out on sire stats
The Sire of his Dam has bred the 2002 winner of this
The Damsire has bred placed horses too in this race
One day soon a horse by Beneficial will break this statistic
I’d be very wary about opposing UPSWING on sire stats
There is an Age statistic I’ve found with this sire
If you look at horses sired by Beneficial
That were aged 7 or less
None have yet won over 3m 3f or more yet
All 51 that tried were beaten aged 7 or less
That does worry me about UPSWING
He is also having his 4th run of the season
21 of the last 22 winners had just 1-2 runs
UPSWING also has a career high mark to overcome
He has just been raised 3lbs for getting beaten
I won’t make him a negative despite his sire
But there is evidence in different areas raising concern
RED DEVIL LADS is sired by Beneficial
We know horses aged 7 or less by this sire
Have a 0-51 record running over 3m 3f or more
I don’t see him being the first to do so
He has never been out of a Class 3 race before

CORGY is  sired by King’s Theatre
King’s Theatre’s bred many Listed /Graded winners
Those that ran beyond 3m 2f were 0-47
CORGY is only a 6 year old
Only 2 horses his age have won since 1948
If you look at the two winners aged 6
They were several months older than him anyway
CORGY was a May Foal in 2009 and is younger
It’s enough to put me off
He has plenty of weight too and 6 weeks off
And he is 0-10 never placing 1-2-3 in fields of 10 or more
SAROQUE looks an unlikely stayer by a flat bred sire
Look at horses sired by Revoque
The furthest any of his runners have won at is 3m 3f
That was on much better ground in lower Grade
Look at this Sires runners in Class 2 or higher
Those that raced over 2m 6f or more are 0-23
FIREBIRD FLYER shouldn’t have the class
He has 17 Chase runs
Yet he’s never got himself into Listed Graded races
He is 0-11 in Class 2 races and never ran in better grade
I looked at his sire Winged Love
His runners over 3m 4f or more
Have a 1-34 record in Class 2 and higher
Not the most persuasive breeding statistic

EMPEROR´S CHOICE won this last year with 10st 8lbs
He tries to repeat that victory with 11st 1lbs
My biggest problem is having 1 race in a year
He has only raced once since last years win
He won first time out this year in a small field
But one run in a year is a problem statistically
We know last time winners were all lighter raced
If he wins so be it but I hate his preparation

SHOTGUN PADDY pulled up in last years race
Bad mistake at the 2nd and pulled up before the 7th
He had topweight last year
This year less weight – but 11st 5lbs is still a tough ask
Horses with 11st 1lbs and more have struggled
Just 3 have won with 11st 1lbs or more
Since the mighty Carvills Hill back in 1991
Look at the 3 horses that managed it
Master Oats did it with just 7 opponents
He went on and won a Cheltenham Gold Cup
Synchronised won with more than 11st 1lbs
He went on and won a Cheltenham Gold Cup too
Halcon Genelardais was the other horse to do it
He was far lighter raced and had less weight anyway
I think his last run earns him respect
But the weight is a problem
And the only 8yo winners with big weights
Both went on and won Cheltenham Gold Cups
TOUR DES CHAMPS won on his 1st run this year
He defied a massive absence to win
If I look at past winners who won last time
They were all lighter raced than he is
Worth remembering he pulled up in last years race
Perhaps a big field doesn’t suit him well
TOUR DES CHAMPS is 0-11 in Listed and Graded races
That is another worry and will he stay anyway ?
He is by the sire Robin Des Champs
Look at his runners in Class 2 or higher
None have won yet beyond 3m 1f
I don’t see enough I like about him

I think one of 5 horses might win

BERTIE BORU
RETURN SPRING
WOODFORD COUNTY
BOB FORD
MOUNTAINOUS

BERTIE BORU should not be underestimated
I thought he ran well at Sandown last time
I said that in the message the following day
I said I had 50 tenners about him winning this
He passes all the important angles
Last winter he was highly progressive
I fancied him at Sandown last January when he unseated
He then ran two bad races after that fall
There could easily be excuses for those bad losses
He was repeatedly hampered in the Eider Chase
He then was put away for the year
He came out and ran badly in the Badger Ales
That was his seasonal debut though
He probably was not fit
His next run at Sandown really impressed me
As I said earlier I backed him for this straight away
There is one problem for me
He is a Small type of horse
He will most likely be in last place early on
He will be unconvincing at a few fences
He will then creep into the race
You will probably want to cancel your bet early
You may then think – hang about – he has a chance
Then in the last 3rd of the race
It will depend on what energy has been saved
If this had been a 10 runner race
He would be a Maximum Bet each way at 25/1
But in a huge field heavy ground and a small horse
I just know there is huge potential to disappoint
Worth a bet at 25/1 but his size is a worry

RETURN SPRING was beaten 15 lengths last time out
Slightly more than ideal but that is forgiveable
He lost and shoe and had excuses last time
His Breeding profile worries me
I am far from convinced he will stay
He has 3 runs in long distance chases
He was Pulled Up and beaten 41 + 63 lengths
The others on my shortlist all have an extra prep run

BOB FORD won last time
The extra space since the abandonment helps him
He has yet to win in this Class before though
He can’t seem to string 2 good runs together
Perhaps he is a horse that needs a small field ?
If you look at last time out winners in this race
There were 5 winners who had fewer Chase runs
Those with 9 or more Chase runs were 1-30
BOB FORD has 17 Chase runs
He has far more weight than that winner
Not convinced with is inconsistent profile
Interesting he is trained in Wales
And all 6 wins have been at Welsh Tracks
Perhaps he is a horse that hates travelling
And only runs to form when racing locally
Not unknown for a horse to have this problem

MOUNTAINOUS is a 11 year old
We need to think of him as a 10 year old
We have to go back 20 years for the last 10yo winner
The issue is should we forgive him that
On the grounds that he won this race in 2013
Possibly we should but he has raced 3 times this year
This is his 4th race and that is far from the norm
There is a good reason to ignore his age
He did not start racing properly until he was 6 years old
You may remember I fancied him at Sandown last time
He ran a great race on ground a bit too quick
If you look at 10 year olds with under 12 Chase starts
Running within a month carrying under 11st
There was only a 0-9 record with these horses
Most of these were rank outsiders and one was 2nd
Maybe it is time to ignore this age statistic
Look at MOUNTAINOUS’s individual record
When running on Soft or Heavy
When running in the last 31 days
When beaten under 30 lengths last time out
He has a W W W 4 W W record
Despite his age I give him a big chance

WOODFORD COUNTY was 7th in last years race
He looks a better horse now he’s had more experience
Last time out he won a 3m 6f handicap on heavy
Ground and Distance won’t hold any fears
And he has a featherweight than must help
He’s never won beyond a Class 3 race before
I don’t mind that at all given his form
He has placed in a Midlands National
He has placed in an Eider Chase
I opposed him in this race last year
I didn’t feel he had enough backclass
I opposed him in the Eider Chase next time
He was a negative and underaced for such a test
I opposed him in the Midlands National too
The Eider Chase is a horrible trial race for Uttoxeter
I felt the race would come too soon
Now he managed 3rd in both those races
Two Gruelling marathon races run 3 weeks apart
It’s no wonder he flopped next time out at Haydock
I opposed him at Haydock because of his schedule
Welsh National Eider and Midlands National
It was just too much for him and understandably so
That was it for the season after that race
He needed his seasonal debut this year
WOODFORD COUNTY won his 2nd run last time out
That run on Racing Post Ratings was a career best
He’s a course winner and should go very well

Selection

WOODFORD COUNTY 14/1 £6 Win + £2 Place

MOUNTAINOUS 10/1 £1 Win

BOB FORD 16/1 £1 Win

—————————————————-

Some Points and Observations

#1 – As ever some very good and in depth analysis from Guy.
Mountainous won and Woodford County proved Guy’s words about
opting for a bookie with 5 places as sage advice when finishing 5th.
Bob Ford fell but was available in play on Betfair at much much shorter odds providing a trading opportunity for those who like to think that way.

#2 – The benefit of hindsight viewpoint on this individual race
may be that it could have been staked better.
Staked as per message top  eg £6 win and £2 place Woodford County at
16/1 for 5 places and £1 on Mountainous at 10/1 and £1 on Bob Ford would have returned  £21 for every tenner staked.
A win is a win as they say but with tinkered staking it could easily have been more.
Such things tend to even out however time and multiple races.
The root of Guy’s long term success and profitable horse betting
is all to do with in depth research that fine tunes a multi runner race
into one or a few value horses.

#3 – Last weeks blog post contained feedback from a client here.
See Racing Bet Staking

Summing up said clients personal feedback, two key points to boil
it right down might be:

A – Ignore each way advice from Guy and just bet everything on the nose
B – Great all savers as full stakes as they as a subset provide proven long term edge.

So I guess that particular client will be saying “I told you so”
as he would have staked three win singles on the nose
with one of them returning a 10/1 winner.

#4 – This particular race is a useful example to help
explain how we record results here because it is a bet with
more complicated than usual staking.

The vast majority of Guy’s official tips are straight forward win or each way.
He puts them out with a simple level stakes approach.
On certain days however he will opt to split that level stake up across a few runners. When he does that he uses in his message a nominal £10 total stake just to demonstrate how he suggests splitting up the total stake.

So if your normal stake was £100 for the sake of argument.
Many days you would be having £100 on the nose or £50 each way.
Last Saturday you would have had £60 win and £20 place.
Then two further £10 on the nose bets to add up to your normal £100 total.

It’s not rocket science really.
Each official tip we deem to carry equal stakes.
Just that on some days this stake may be split across a few horses.
Simple enough really.

For our results chart and spreadsheet instead of £10 nominal
units I would just note it as 1 pt total.

See the results chart here
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/profit-chart.asp

That chart mirrors how Guy actually advised his stakes.
But as you can see from the client feed back link above
clients are free to stake with approaches that best suit themselves.

And just shout for the official tip results spreadsheet if you want it.

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on January 15, 2016

Racing Bet Staking

Members Feedback on Staking of Racing Tips

This is a bit of feedback from a client we received this week.

I thought I would reproduce it here as it does raise

some interesting points.

Read More…

Posted under Bet Doctor

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on January 7, 2016

Hennessy Gold Cup 2015

In today’s free newsletter

#1 – Hennessy Gold Cup Tipping Competition

#2 – Hennessy Gold Cup Stats And Thoughts

 

#1 – Hennessy Gold Cup Tipping Competition

The last time I ran a tipping comp here was back in April
and I vowed to myself not to do it again as it took me ages
to sort and settle entries submitted by email. But this time
I have done it a little bit easier for me with a simple web
form to collect entries. If this works ok we may just have
a few more of these competitions in future.

This is simple one race only competition with that race being
Saturday’s Hennessy Gold Cup.

You get to pick two horses.

On each is placed a £50 win bet and a £50 place
bet with odds settled according to Betfair bsp for win and
place markets on the day of the race.

[Just think two horses for a £50 each way bet on each
but settled at Betfair
Exchange odds instead of traditional each way ]

You can win full membership time here as a prize and we are
paying out on the top three places.

Here is the link to submit your entry.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/competition/hennessy.asp

It’s 100% free and you may win something so why not have
a pop.

 

#2 – Hennessy Gold Cup Stats And Thoughts

During the week Guy provided full members here with some
early stats and thoughts with regards to the Hennessy.

Just incase you need a bit of inspiration yourself I thought
you may appreciate them. So I have copied them below for you.

 

A n t e P o s t

Newbury

Saturday 28th November

Hennessy Gold Cup Chase

 

[ Find latest Hennessy Odds here ]

I have looked at most of the fancied horses
with a bit more work to do on some of the others.

Today a full set of statistics for this race

Horses aged 11 or more should be opposed
The last ones to win were in 1957 and 1967
Horses aged 10 should also be avoided
The last winner aged 10 was back in 1981
Diamond Edge was the only 10yo winner in 43 years.
Since 1988 horses aged 10 or more are 0-65 in this race

Horses aged 9 are 3-80 since 1992
Horses aged 9 won just 3 of the last 24 renewals
They had 17 7 15 National Hunt runs
They had 12 7 8 Chase runs
Two ran that season having 7 and 8 Chase starts
The other (Denman) was a rare 9yo seasonal debutant
Seasonal debutants aged 9 or more are 1-45
They won from official ratings of 174 139 145

Horses aged 8 are 4-75 since 1992
They had all had a race that season
Horses aged 8 first time out are 0-22 since 1992
The 4 winners aged 8 had 20 18 14 17 National Hunt runs
The 4 winners aged 8 had 14 16 11 13 Chase runs
They won from official ratings of 146 149 162 148

Horses aged 7 have a 11-111 record since 1992
The 10 winners had 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 runs this season
The 10 winners had 16 10 12 23 10 11 18 16 12 5 29 National Hunt runs
The 10 winners had 7 4 3 23 5 4 6 5 6 5 13 previous chase runs
They won from the following official ratings
151 160 156 150 161 151 145 137 136 142 149
The Perfect profile is a lightly raced 7yo debutant
There were 5 seasonal debutant winners aged 7
They all had Grade 1 form before
They had 4 3 5 4 6 previous Chase starts
They won this race in 2001 2005 2007 2010 2012

Horses aged 6 have a 5-49 record since 1992
Horses aged 6 and 7 are the ideal age for the race
The 5 winners aged 6 had 1 0 1 2 1 runs this season
Seasonal debutant 6 year olds were 1-16 in recent years
That winner (State Of Play) had just 4 Chase starts
Horses aged 6 are best with a recent run
They are best with under 8 Chase runs and winning last time
The 5 winners aged 6 had 14 12 6 6 16 National Hunt runs
The 5 winners aged 6 had 11 4 6 4 7 previous chase runs
The 5 winners aged 6 had official ratings of 147 145 142 140 135
One winner age 6 came from a Novice Chase (1993)
The following is an excellent profile
Male horses aged 6
Winning last time out
Running within 18 days
Having 8 or fewer Chase starts
3 horses had this profile
They finished W W W winning in 1994 2003 2004

Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs
16-16-14-10-20-12-16-23-10-12-11-6-6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
Horses with 6-18 National Hunt runs do best
The last few winners had the following Chase races
7-11-4-14-3-12-23-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
12 of the last 19 winners had between 3-7 Chase starts
The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
0-8-0-5-0-21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
Horses with 0-1 Handicap runs do very well
Horses that were 1st-2nd last time score well
18 of the last 23 winners were 1st or 2nd last time
Three of the five that were not finished 3rd
Second-season chasers are the most interesting
They won 11 of the last 16 renewals
18 of the last 22 winners had form in Grade 1-2 before
There were only 4 horses that did not
3 of these had Under 9 career starts
These 3 had 4 5 7 Chase Starts
Horses with No Grade 1-2 form should be lightly raced
I looked at horses that had raced that season
None of the winners came from a Non Handicap Graded race
No Seasonal debutant won without Grade 1 form
Few Hennessey winners have Headgear
No past winner came from a Hurdles race
No past winner came from a Grade 2 Chase first time out
I’d be wary of horses from the Paddy Power Gold Cup
There is precious little recovery time from a hard race
The double has been done by Celestial Gold (2004)
The previous winner to do that was in 1980
It has been done but it is not ideal as a trial race

Early Conclusions

CONEYGREE is now a Non Runner
This means just a maximum of 20 can take part
It means it is quite a poor renewal this year
None of the 1-2-3-4 in last seasons RSA take place

Saphir Du Rheu – Hoping to find a better option
Smad Place – Stamina and a big world are worries
Bobs Worth – I can’t justify a 10 year old
The Druids Nephew – Stamina might beat him
The Young Master – Mild positive but a stamina issue
If In Doubt – Mild positive
Houblon Des Obeaux – Doesn’t offer enough
Valseur Lido – Can’t be discounted just yet
Theatre Guide – 25/1 + is value in a mixed profile

More detail on a few

VALSEUR LIDO

This is a 6yo seasonal debutant
Seasonal debutant 6 year olds were 1-16 in recent years
That winner (State Of Play) had just 4 Chase starts
With 6 Chase starts I’d see him as a positive
He is a Second-season chaser which helps
This is a weak renewal as well
Much depends on his preparation
Is this a Genuine target or has he other plans
He is going to be second top weight
That would scare me off first time out
I also question his stamina as well

THEATRE GUIDE was 3rd in this 2 years ago
He has positives and negatives
But at the price he does look good value
In terms of his negatives he is a bit exposed
Has a few more runs than you would prefer
He is also going to fail my breeding statistics as well
There will come a time soon that his sire wins one of these
There some positives though
8 year olds need recent runs and he has that
He is strangely cost to the other 8yo winners
The 4 winners aged 8 had 20 18 14 17 National Hunt runs
THEATRE GUIDE has 21 National Hunt runs
The 4 winners aged 8 had 14 16 11 13 Chase runs
THEATRE GUIDE has 15 Chase runs
They won from official ratings of 146 149 162 148
THEATRE GUIDE has an official mark of 139
The weights going up suit him
When he was 3rd in this race in 2013 he had 10st 13lbs
He will be carrying much less weight this year

I hope to have a very short Hennessy shortlist
tomorrow. I do fancy one a lot but I have a very
annoying problem with him that won’t go away.

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on November 25, 2015

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