Hennessy Gold Cup 2015

In today’s free newsletter

#1 – Hennessy Gold Cup Tipping Competition

#2 – Hennessy Gold Cup Stats And Thoughts


#1 – Hennessy Gold Cup Tipping Competition

The last time I ran a tipping comp here was back in April
and I vowed to myself not to do it again as it took me ages
to sort and settle entries submitted by email. But this time
I have done it a little bit easier for me with a simple web
form to collect entries. If this works ok we may just have
a few more of these competitions in future.

This is simple one race only competition with that race being
Saturday’s Hennessy Gold Cup.

You get to pick two horses.

On each is placed a £50 win bet and a £50 place
bet with odds settled according to Betfair bsp for win and
place markets on the day of the race.

[Just think two horses for a £50 each way bet on each
but settled at Betfair
Exchange odds instead of traditional each way ]

You can win full membership time here as a prize and we are
paying out on the top three places.

Here is the link to submit your entry.


It’s 100% free and you may win something so why not have
a pop.


#2 – Hennessy Gold Cup Stats And Thoughts

During the week Guy provided full members here with some
early stats and thoughts with regards to the Hennessy.

Just incase you need a bit of inspiration yourself I thought
you may appreciate them. So I have copied them below for you.


A n t e P o s t


Saturday 28th November

Hennessy Gold Cup Chase


[ Find latest Hennessy Odds here ]

I have looked at most of the fancied horses
with a bit more work to do on some of the others.

Today a full set of statistics for this race

Horses aged 11 or more should be opposed
The last ones to win were in 1957 and 1967
Horses aged 10 should also be avoided
The last winner aged 10 was back in 1981
Diamond Edge was the only 10yo winner in 43 years.
Since 1988 horses aged 10 or more are 0-65 in this race

Horses aged 9 are 3-80 since 1992
Horses aged 9 won just 3 of the last 24 renewals
They had 17 7 15 National Hunt runs
They had 12 7 8 Chase runs
Two ran that season having 7 and 8 Chase starts
The other (Denman) was a rare 9yo seasonal debutant
Seasonal debutants aged 9 or more are 1-45
They won from official ratings of 174 139 145

Horses aged 8 are 4-75 since 1992
They had all had a race that season
Horses aged 8 first time out are 0-22 since 1992
The 4 winners aged 8 had 20 18 14 17 National Hunt runs
The 4 winners aged 8 had 14 16 11 13 Chase runs
They won from official ratings of 146 149 162 148

Horses aged 7 have a 11-111 record since 1992
The 10 winners had 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 runs this season
The 10 winners had 16 10 12 23 10 11 18 16 12 5 29 National Hunt runs
The 10 winners had 7 4 3 23 5 4 6 5 6 5 13 previous chase runs
They won from the following official ratings
151 160 156 150 161 151 145 137 136 142 149
The Perfect profile is a lightly raced 7yo debutant
There were 5 seasonal debutant winners aged 7
They all had Grade 1 form before
They had 4 3 5 4 6 previous Chase starts
They won this race in 2001 2005 2007 2010 2012

Horses aged 6 have a 5-49 record since 1992
Horses aged 6 and 7 are the ideal age for the race
The 5 winners aged 6 had 1 0 1 2 1 runs this season
Seasonal debutant 6 year olds were 1-16 in recent years
That winner (State Of Play) had just 4 Chase starts
Horses aged 6 are best with a recent run
They are best with under 8 Chase runs and winning last time
The 5 winners aged 6 had 14 12 6 6 16 National Hunt runs
The 5 winners aged 6 had 11 4 6 4 7 previous chase runs
The 5 winners aged 6 had official ratings of 147 145 142 140 135
One winner age 6 came from a Novice Chase (1993)
The following is an excellent profile
Male horses aged 6
Winning last time out
Running within 18 days
Having 8 or fewer Chase starts
3 horses had this profile
They finished W W W winning in 1994 2003 2004

Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs
Horses with 6-18 National Hunt runs do best
The last few winners had the following Chase races
12 of the last 19 winners had between 3-7 Chase starts
The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
Horses with 0-1 Handicap runs do very well
Horses that were 1st-2nd last time score well
18 of the last 23 winners were 1st or 2nd last time
Three of the five that were not finished 3rd
Second-season chasers are the most interesting
They won 11 of the last 16 renewals
18 of the last 22 winners had form in Grade 1-2 before
There were only 4 horses that did not
3 of these had Under 9 career starts
These 3 had 4 5 7 Chase Starts
Horses with No Grade 1-2 form should be lightly raced
I looked at horses that had raced that season
None of the winners came from a Non Handicap Graded race
No Seasonal debutant won without Grade 1 form
Few Hennessey winners have Headgear
No past winner came from a Hurdles race
No past winner came from a Grade 2 Chase first time out
I’d be wary of horses from the Paddy Power Gold Cup
There is precious little recovery time from a hard race
The double has been done by Celestial Gold (2004)
The previous winner to do that was in 1980
It has been done but it is not ideal as a trial race

Early Conclusions

CONEYGREE is now a Non Runner
This means just a maximum of 20 can take part
It means it is quite a poor renewal this year
None of the 1-2-3-4 in last seasons RSA take place

Saphir Du Rheu – Hoping to find a better option
Smad Place – Stamina and a big world are worries
Bobs Worth – I can’t justify a 10 year old
The Druids Nephew – Stamina might beat him
The Young Master – Mild positive but a stamina issue
If In Doubt – Mild positive
Houblon Des Obeaux – Doesn’t offer enough
Valseur Lido – Can’t be discounted just yet
Theatre Guide – 25/1 + is value in a mixed profile

More detail on a few


This is a 6yo seasonal debutant
Seasonal debutant 6 year olds were 1-16 in recent years
That winner (State Of Play) had just 4 Chase starts
With 6 Chase starts I’d see him as a positive
He is a Second-season chaser which helps
This is a weak renewal as well
Much depends on his preparation
Is this a Genuine target or has he other plans
He is going to be second top weight
That would scare me off first time out
I also question his stamina as well

THEATRE GUIDE was 3rd in this 2 years ago
He has positives and negatives
But at the price he does look good value
In terms of his negatives he is a bit exposed
Has a few more runs than you would prefer
He is also going to fail my breeding statistics as well
There will come a time soon that his sire wins one of these
There some positives though
8 year olds need recent runs and he has that
He is strangely cost to the other 8yo winners
The 4 winners aged 8 had 20 18 14 17 National Hunt runs
THEATRE GUIDE has 21 National Hunt runs
The 4 winners aged 8 had 14 16 11 13 Chase runs
THEATRE GUIDE has 15 Chase runs
They won from official ratings of 146 149 162 148
THEATRE GUIDE has an official mark of 139
The weights going up suit him
When he was 3rd in this race in 2013 he had 10st 13lbs
He will be carrying much less weight this year

I hope to have a very short Hennessy shortlist
tomorrow. I do fancy one a lot but I have a very
annoying problem with him that won’t go away.

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on November 25, 2015

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November Handicap Stats

November Handicap Stats 2015

Guy has carried out a bit of stat research preparation

work into The November Handicap at Doncaster this Saturday.

I have popped it on a webpage at our main site.

Here is the link is you fancy a nosey at what he has unearthed.

November Handicap Stats




Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on November 5, 2015

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Bookmaker Dormant Account Warning

Most of you know that bookies want to win your money off

But did you know they can just take your cash even if you
do not make a losing wager?

Well they can and they can’t.

Their terms often have provision for dealing
with what they class as dormant accounts.

These would be punter accounts that have
seen no action on them for some time.

It matters little to the punter if such an account
has zero balance in it.

But if there is balance there then this balance has potential
to be eaten away by dormant account fees.

It’s not a quite a free for all however for bookies with
such matters.

Any uk regulated bookie will have standards to uphold in dealing
with such matters. They have to make a fair attempt to contact
the customer for example.

But I can see how a fair attempt using email may not reach
the target.

So rack your brains.

Do you have any old bookie accounts with balance in them?

They may even use an old email address that no longer works.

I got caught out myself with this just this week.

Checking an old email address I had not looked at in six

I found a few emails from Betfair from a month ago.

It appears I had set up a second Betfair account back in
2007 and it still had some balance in it.

I had totally forgotten about it’s existence.

If I remember correctly I had set it up as short lived experiment
for a soccer punter mate totrade on using my funds.

Once alerted I quickly logged in and made a super small trade
to kill the dormant status.

But I noted I had been charged £5 each week for 3 weeks
in a row as dormant account fees.

No moans from me towards Betfair about all this.

They contacted my email well in advance.

It was my fault not to check emails in that inbox for six

You stay more alert than me I suggest :)

Learn from my mistakes.

What’s The Positive ?

Well I am actually semi happy as I now

realise I have a second Betfair account with £350 in

So mentally I am £350 up as I had totally forgotten
about it.

I could just withdraw it but that would be no fun.

Seeing as it is totally separate from my main Betfair account

I thought I might do something special with it.

My own mum does a fair bit of voluntary work for Marie Curie.

As a retired nurse she has medical skills they can put to
good use.

My own skills lie elsewhere.

I thought I would try and bet the initial £350 figure
up to a target £700.

If I hit it I will keep £350 and donate the rest to
Marie Curie

What Will I Bet On?

Well if you look at the profit chart

for Guy’s backing tips at


it should be clear to see that an approach based on
those would be far from idiotic.

However because this surprise £350 is already in Betfair
I intend to base this on Guy’s advice from his newish lays
section of the full member message here as that is 100% geared for

As you can see from the list below he has been quite selective
with these.

But also very accurate at identifying shorter priced favourite
to oppose.

Much more so patient sniper like than machine gunnist.

Bet Profit
Total Profit
12-May Amber Crystal
13-May Receding Waves
18-May Cry Fury
19-May Peggy Do
19-May Morselle
22-May Luna Moon
27-May Towering
03-Jun Sophie’s World
08-Jun Hurricane Fly
17-Jun Grangeclare Rosa
02-Jul Zebs Fantasy
03-Jul Jayjinski
08-Jul Rio Deva
14-Jul Lady Gemini
03-Aug General Potempkin

The profits above assume you take a maximum risk of £100
on each horse at BSP with 5% commission.

I guess one way of looking at the above figures might be
to say that a client here who had risked £100 on each lay would
now be over £1000 better off in winnings since May 12th.

So even forgetting about additional profits on the backing
tips they would have earned more than our annual subscription fee
over that shortish period.

That’s just one way of following lays.

Some people may prefer to put up a fixed amount for a punter
to take on Betfair. If so their £ risk of loss will
vary on a horse by horse basis according to odds.

It is just my personal preference to veer more towards a
maximum loss per selection.

How Will I Stake My Charity Fund?

Staking on anything is part spreadsheet figures and part mentality.

The mental side is all about an individuals risk and reward

In this scenario I am dealing with a small surprise pot of

I am happy to veer towards over aggression with it.

With a larger pot I could less afford to totally lose I would
play safer with.

What I will do is set my liability on each lay at about 15%
of my bankroll.

That will add a bit of compounding element into it as well.

Out of interest that exact approach would have turned an
initial £1000 into £3.1k over the series of lays as per above.

I will set a three month review date on it as well assuming
the target is not met before then.

Anyhow I will let you know how I get on with it in future

Hopefully the end result at the end of it is that I still
have my £350 and Marie Curie get a cheque for the same.

If I blow the lot well both Marie Curie and myself will be
in the same position we thought we were at a week ago.


Lays Spreadsheet

If you have an interest in laying note the spreadsheet I
knocked up


It let’s you examine various staking approaches.

Wipe all Guy’s lays data from it and input your own lays if
you like.

You will note I have added place lay data for all Guys lays
too despite him officially laying in the win market.

There has been good edge place laying them too as it happens.

One for outside the box thinker clients perhaps?

What About This Saturday?

Guy had a reasonable Saturday last week with his sole official
tip placing at 12/1 each way.

I asked him if he had anything useful for you for tomorrow.

He said he was just early into his research for tomorrow at
this stage but he passed on a few stat nuggets for the Shergar Cup Meeting
at Ascot.


The Shergar Cup at Ascot started back in 2000

There have been 84 races at this 1 day festival

There are two Generic Stats to consider

All horses that ran aged 7 or more are 1-68

All horses aged 4 or more absent 54 + days are 0-42


So I guess those of you who like to pick your own
could use those stat filters to reduce your shortlist
a degree.

No stats are ever infallible of course.

The attitude will always be know the numbers
so you can choose to sway your opinion by them
in order to help gain longer term edge.

Do your homework and you are more likely to pass the test.

Perhaps our clients here are cheaters who pay
big racing swot Guy to do their tedious homework
for them :)

It’s no different in theory really to Warren Buffet
paying skilled stock analysts to do research for him.

Guy’s final conclusions for Saturday you can book

for a one off £3 at


Or if your vision extends beyond a single day
then give him a test for a month at


Best of luck for your weekend racing


PS If you don’t yet have a Betfair account you are probably
missing out on better backing odds and on ability to trade
and lay.

They have a £30 free bet bribe for new accounts at
this link




Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on August 7, 2015

Tags: , , ,

Galway Festival Misdirection

The piece below is a short extract from Guy’s full member message for clients of www.mathematician-betting.co.uk from earlier in the week.

I thought it interesting comment so I have popped it up here.

I guess if seeking educational points from it they may include:

#1 – Don’t implicity tust racing media articles.  Journalists are humans with flaws. They are often paid by the word and not by how much you win following their lead. They can take short cuts and often don’t dig deep enough into the facts that matter to punters who want to find edge.

#2 – Poorly thought out but mass media hyped stuff can be a good thing if you can spot it and have done the work to know they are wrong.  If it causes extra demand on what you don’t want to back you will be more prone to find good value on what you do want to bank.

#3 – If you like to pick your own you might future benefit from Guy’s interpretation of Gordon Elliot’s words.




Galway  Festival

A recent headline in the Racing Press

“Elliot Buoyed Up For His Lucky Track”

It was an interview with Gordon Elliot about
this weeks Galway Festival. I know the best
stable this week is Dermot Weld so I thought
I’d just have a look at Gordon Elliott’s record.

* Galway Festival since 2009

* Gordon Elliott’s runners

* There was a 0-64 record

So much for being his Lucky track !!!

Whoever wrote that article is an Amateur
To be fair he scores well here in the Autumn
His runners at this festival though are 0-64
It would make me think twice before I bet him

That Gordon Elliot article was very lazy but it
did throw up a quote I felt was just fascinating.
Read it and bear in mind he has a 0-64 record.

” It’s a very busy time for us in the next couple
of weeks. All the good winter horses will come
back in and we’ll start them off slowly and get
them going. We’ll have some smashing horses”

This infers that all these good horses he trains
have been away and haven’t resumed training
yet and will be out running later in the season.

This infers all his Galway Festival runners are
his second division horses and perhaps this is
why this trainer has a 0-64 record at this festival.

We should pay attention to this stat this week

Galway Festival since 2009

Dermot Weld 55-192
Gordon Elliott 0-64



Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on July 31, 2015


Grand National Tips

We have just popped up some detailed research into the Grand National

over on our main site.

see here Grand National Tips






Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on April 3, 2015

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