Moet & Chandon International Stakes Handicap

This is one race Guy has been looking at over the past few days
in his Future Betting Angles sub section for Full Members.

These are his comments as made over the past few days.
The time line of things may be semi typical here.
Note how certain aspects such as research into many years
history of the race ( or perhaps of races of similar characteristic )
can be researched early on.

Other things are best left to later on.
Final declarations and draw for example
are usually only known shortly before race day.

This race below Guy has brought up to provisional selection stage.
More often than not final selections or advised bets if any
will be made on race day morning. It did not happen in this race
but sometimes the early work will highlight something stand out enough
to merit the extra risk associated with an ante post bet.
Morning of race however is much more so par for the course
for betting decissions.

For those of you with an interest in assessing your own races
perhaps one take away concept may be the idea of trying to get
ahead of the curve advance research wise.

Major races with long term history are a bit easier for this.
But bread and butter daily racing as well the core thinking can be applied to.
eg Research Thursday racing on Wednesday.
Final touches and bets if any then on Thursday morning.
After than you start to prepare for Friday racing etc.

Such “Be Prepared” thinking is hardly rocket science style theory.
Is it not sort of obvious that a punter with homework done
before race day will have a bit of edge over the punter
who tries to cram all research and thinking into a short period of pressured time?

Fingers crossed at least one reader will have a lightbulb flash above their head
and change their old ways for a new improved way.

 

===================================================================

 

 

 

From message of Wed 24th July

Saturday Ascot 3.00

Moet & Chandon International Stakes Handicap

10/1 Kynren 10/1 Ripp Orf 10/1 Land of Legends
12/1 Mubhij 12/1 Spanish City 12/1 Raising Sand
16/1 Flaming Spear 16/1 Makzeem 16/1 Fanaar
20/1 Burnt Sugar 16/1 Vale of Kent 16/1 Blue Mist
16/1 Librisa Breeze 20/1 Lush Life 20/1 Firmament
20/1 Kaeso 20/1 Admirality 20/1 Diocles of Rome
20/1 Raydiance 20/1 Hey Jonesy 25/1 Maries Diamond
25/1 Arbalet 25/1 Cold Stare 25/1 Summerghand
25/1 Kimifive 25/1 Wise Counsel 25/1 Blown By Wind
25/1 Alemaratalyoum 25/1 Island of Life 25/1 Lake Volta
33/1 Documenting 33/1 Hajjam 33/1 Another Batt
33/1 Aces 33/1 Good Effort 33/1 Intisaab 33/1 Jacks Point
33/1 Love Dreams 33/1 Presidential 33/1Straight Right
33/1 Zhui Feng 40/1 Reputation 40/1Tommy Taylor
40/1 Shady McCoy 50/1 Larchmont Lad 50/1 Zap
50/1 Whinmoor 50/1 Markazi 50/1 Larchmont Lad
66/1 Reeves

Top class 7f handicap

Last previewed this race in 2014
My statistics since strengthened
Enough angles to cover this race

Age

Horses aged 6 or more
Have a horrible 1-124 record
The only winner was last year
A horse in red hot form
Who won the best trial race

Horses aged 3 struggled
They have a 1-47 record since 2000
All 28 have failed since then

Weight

Horses with 9st 3lbs or more
Have a worrying 1-61 record
Only 2008 winner had a big weight

Absence

Longest absent winner 38 days
Those absent longer were 0-46
Longer than 6 weeks a problem

The last 10 renewals since 2009
9 of them ran within 3 weeks
Horses absent longer were 1-98

Jockeys

5lbs- 7lbs Claiming jockeys
Have a 0-35 record in the race

Recent runs

Horses with under 3 runs
In the previous 12 weeks
Have a 1-73 record since 2003
Those with 9 or more runs 0-49

Previous race

Horses from Listed or Group races
Have a 0-53 record since 2001
No horse won from Class 4 or lower

Horses coming from 6f of shorter
Have a 1-71 record since 2003

Best trial race the Bunbury Cup
6 past winners came from there
Including 3 of the last 4 winners
No horse won after a heavy defeat
Those beaten over 15 lengths 0-27

Ideal Profile

Male horse
Aged 4 of 5
Running within 6 weeks
Coming from 7f or 8f
9st 2lbs or less
Not ridden by 5lbs-7lbs claimer
At least 3 runs since late April
If the horse has 9 or more runs
Coming from Class 2-3 races
Not beaten more than 15 lengths
Consider it an added bonus
If coming from the Bunbury Cup

Will be coming back to this race

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From message of Thur 25th July

Saturday Ascot 3.00

Moet & Chandon International Stakes Handicap

Sent some statistics yesterday

Betfair have no market on the race

ARBALET was backed yesterday
Because he was tipped in the Press
Fails my angles from a Listed race
Horses from Pattern races
Have a 0-53 record since 2001

Class 2 Handicaps in July
Run over any and every distance
Horses aged 4
With 10 or more career starts
Coming from a pattern race
Have a 0-51 record since 2001
ARBALET fails this as well

KYNREN is a consistent sort
Not running in the Bunbury Cup
Could hurt his chance in this race
He has raced just once in 77 days
Past winners had 3 runs in that time

LAND OF LEGENDS is a 3yo
This age group are 1-47 since 2000
WISE COUNSEL has the same problem
FANAAR also has the same problem

RASING SAND is a 7 year old
In a race horses older than 5 struggle
FLAMING SPEAR fails age statistics
Not to mention his serious absence

SPANISH CITY is older than ideal
Career best win came off a rating of 88
Today whilst his rating of 96 is tough
His numbers suggest he can win off that
He also comes from the best trial race
But he will require a career best to win

MAKZEEM is older than almost all winners
But a recent win last Saturday could help
If he wins that could be the reason why
But 3 career best runs were on good-soft

Ideal Profile

Male horse
Aged 4 of 5
Running within 6 weeks
Coming from 7f or 8f
9st 2lbs or less
Not ridden by 5lbs-7lbs claimer
At least 3 runs since late April
If the horse has 9 or more runs
Coming from Class 2-3 races
Not beaten more than 15 lengths
Consider it an added bonus
If coming from the Bunbury Cup

Applying my statistics

The following horses pass them

10/1 Ripp Orf – 12/1 Mubhij – 16/1 Vale of Kent
20/1 Lush Life – 20/1 Kaeso – 20/1 Diocles of Rome
20/1 Raydiance – 25/1 Kimifive – 25/1 Alemaratalyoum
33/1 Hajjam – 33/1 Love Dreams – 40/1Tommy Taylor
50/1 Zap – 50/1 Larchmont Lad

Not all of these will run
Some of the outsiders won’t get in

Also need to wait for the Draw

Recent renewals
Show the 1st 2nd 3rd home
Had the following draws

2018 – 11 18 16
2017 – 14 26 17 (G-Soft)
2016 – 14 22 2
2015 – 2 18 6 (Soft)
2014 – 15 3 19
2013 – 29 10 5
2012 – 22 18 23
2011 – 24 17 19 (G-Soft)

Draw is not easy to read
I’d be wary about very low numbers

Also worth bearing in mind
The best trial race for this
The Bunbury Cup at Newmarket

The shortlisted horses
Coming from this race are these

RIPP ORF
VALE OF KENT
ALEMARATALYOUM
HAJJAM
ZAP

To be concluded
Once more evidence is known
Draw and Declarations out today

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From message of Friday 26th July

Saturday Ascot 3.00

Moet & Chandon International Stakes Handicap

Ripp Orf 8/1 Arbalet 10/1 Vale Of Kent 10/1
Land Of Legends 11/1 Raising Sand 12/1 Spanish City 12/1
Lake Volta 16/1 Mubhij 16/1 Blue Mist 16/1 Kaeso 16/1
Makzeem 18/1 Hey Jonesy 20/1 Burnt Sugar 20/1
Lush Life 20/1 Fanaar 20/1 Diocles Of Rome 20/1 Admirality 22/1
Firmament 25/1 Good Effort 25/1 Island Of Life 25/1
Intisaab 33/1 Another Batt 33/1 Documenting 33/1
Alemaratalyoum 33/1 Kimifive 33/1 Summerghand 40/1
Reputation 40/1 Zap 40/1 Larchmont Lad 66/1

Declarations are through

29 horses run

KYNREN has not been declared
WISE COUNSEL has missed out

MAKZEEM is running
Was not overkeen on his draw in 3
Has a weight outside the ideal range

HEY JONESY has drawn stall 28
RIPP ORF the favourite stall 26
Neither draw guaranteed to help

VALE OF KENT has 9st 5lbs
Thats a bit higher than the ideal

The draw is quite complicated
Would not be confident about it

Ideal profile

Male horse
Aged 4 of 5
Running within 6 weeks
Coming from 7f or 8f
9st 2lbs or less
Not ridden by 5lbs-7lbs claimer
At least 3 runs since late April
If the horse has 9 or more runs
Coming from Class 2-3 races
Not beaten more than 15 lengths
Consider it an added bonus
If coming from the Bunbury Cup

Horses now passing my angles

10/1 Ripp Orf
12/1 Mubhij
20/1 Lush Life
20/1 Kaeso
20/1 Diocles of Rome
25/1 Kimifive
25/1 Alemaratalyoum
50/1 Zap

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Posted under Major Horse Races

The Lincoln Handicap as a large field size handicap
is often a bit of a nightmare to assess.

The Lincoln however is usually a welcome sight
as it indicates the start of the new flat season.

The extract below is taken from our full Member message
of Sunday March 24th.

Those of you self thinkers who prefer to select your own
horses may find the researched stats below of some assistance
in narrowing down your personal shortlist.

If on the other hand you are more so a boss type
who prefers to pay slave wages and get someone else to
do all the hard work feel free to gather a few coppers together
to drum up £3 for our Saturday Service this week.

The Saturday message will cover the Lincoln and more.

=====================================

Ante Post Statistics Lincoln Handicap

Next Saturday ( March 29th )

 

9/2 Auxerre 10/1 Kynren 12/1 Ripp Orf 12/1 Humbert
14/1 Ibraz 16/1 Lord Oberon 16/1 Ledham 16/1 Zwayyan
16/1 South Seas 16/1 Mizaah 20/1 Chilean 20/1 Chiefofchiefs
20/1 Qaysar 20/1 Qaroun 20/1 Safe Voyage 20/1 Hathal
20/1 Silver Quartz 20/1 Battered 25/1 Ballard Down
25/1 Aquarium 25/1 Beringer 25/1 Breden 25/1 Remarkable
25/1 Salute The Soldier 25/1 Gabrial 25/1 Third Time Lucky
33/1 Masham Star 33/1 Book of Dreams 33/1 Chatez
33/1 Circus Couture 33/1 Dawaaleeb 33/1 Saltonstall
33/1 Exec Chef 33/1 Great Prospector 33/1 Al Jellaby
33/1 Sods Law 33/1 Wahash 33/1 Waarif 33/1 Another Batt
33/1 Isomer 40/1 Monoxide 40/1 Calling Out 40/1 Protected Guest
40/1 Raydiance 40/1 Rise Hall 40/1 Gulf Of Poets 40/1 Ventura Knight
40/1 Medieval 40/1 Borderforce 40/1 Prevent 40/1 Brian The Snail
40/1 Petrus 40/1 Calvados Spirit 40/1 Dragon Mall 50/1 Fake News
50/1 Delph Crescent 50/1 Fayez 50/1 Gossiping 50/1 Apex King
50/1 Starlight Romance 50/1 Weld Al Emarat 50/1 Pastime
50/1 Rampant Lion 50/1 Crownthorpe 50/1 Robsdelight
50/1 Sands Chorus 50/1 Detachment

 

 

Monday there is an entry stage
The above field will get reduced
Declarations coming on Thursday
When we will see the final field

A Class 2 Handicap over a Mile

Last 3 winners were 4 year olds
4yo’s have won 9 of the last 14

 

Your 4yo should be Male
Ideally have between 4 and 20 starts
Should be a seasonal debutant
But not absent over 7 months
Not coming from a 3yo handicap

 

Stay with horses aged 4-5-6
Horses aged 7 or more since 1999
Have an overall 0-67 record

 

Horses with under 4 career runs
Have a 0-13 record in this race

 

Go back to the 2000 renewal
Horses with 9st 5lbs or more
Have a poor 1-57 record

 

Apprentice Jockeys had a 1-82 record
5lbs and 7lbs claimers are 0-43

 

18 of the last 19 winners
Came from Class 2-3 races
None came from Class 4-5-6

 

Horses from Listed/Group races
Have a poor overall 1-72 record
In the last 14 years they were 0-51

 

The Draw is often guesswork
The last 3 winners drawn 10 15 20 22

Go back to 2001
Doncaster races over a Mile
Any kind of race any time of year
Horses Aged 5 or more
Drawn 17 or higher have a 0-139 record

 

12 renewals since 2005
11 of the 12 winners rated between 95-105
The last 5 winners rated 99 102 100 100 100

 

No horse has won absent 239 + days
None won absent over 211 days since 2002

 

Horses that came from 9f or more
Won 7 of the previous 13 renewals
Of which 3 came via a Cambridgeshire

 

 

AUXERRE is the favourite
He has been consistently backed

He is a 4yo seasonal debutant
We have seen 9 of these win recently
They had 7 11 4 14 6 5 15 12 5 runs

AUXERRE has just 4 runs
The 2005 winner Stream Of Gold
Did have the same profile as him
But that was quite a long time ago

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

Guy has a strong record in this race over the past ten years.
Highlights would include.

2014 – On His Own ew @ 22/1 2nd by a nose
2012 – Synchronised WON 10/1
2011 – Long Run WON 5/1
2010 – Imperial Commander WON 12/1
2008 – Denman WON 9/4

Account for some losers and breakeven
placed ew bets on other years and the long term net
big picture is pretty strong.

So what does he have for you this year?

Quite a long odds specualtive one this year it happens.

Good luck should you decide to follow.

================================================

Cheltenham 3.30

4/1 Native River, 9/2 Clan Des Obeaux, 9/2 Presenting Percy,
8/1 Bellshill, 9/1 Kemboy, 14/1 Al Boum Photo, Thistlecrack,
16/1 Might Bite, 20/1 Bristol De Mai, 20/1 Elegant Escape,
25/1 Anibale Fly, Shattered Love, 33/1 Invitation Only,
40/1 Definitly Red, 100/1 Double Shuffle, Yala Enki.

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Number of Chase runs

23 Yala Enki
21 Bristol De Mai
20 Double Shuffle
18 Definitly Red
15 Native River
14 Anibale Fly
13 Might Bite
13 Clan Des Obeaux
11 Elegant Escape
11 Shattered Love
9 Invitation Only,
9 Bellshill
8 Thistlecrack
8 Kemboy
7 Al Boum Photo
5 Presenting Percy

17 of the 19 winners
Shared the following profile

1) Under 10 years old
2) Under 15 Chase runs
3) Absent more than 4 weeks
4) Coming from a Graded race
5) Starting under 10/1 last time
6) Under 21 lifetime runs
7) Starting 20/1 or shorter

Horses with this profile

PRESENTING PERCY
SHATTERED LOVE
ELEGANT ESCAPE
KEMBOY

Thats an interesting shortlist

AL BOUM PHOTO is not first choice
Firstly Ruby Walsh has rejected him
He has raced just once this season
Previous Gold Cup winners aged 7
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
Worried about a 7yo with just 1 run
His sire hasn’t had a winner over this far

The Previous 23 Gold Cup winners
Had the following career chase runs

12 9 18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11
12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

21 of the 23 last Gold Cup winners
Had under 15 previous chase runs
BRISTOL DE MAI is a bit too exposed
DEFINITLY RED has the same problem

Horses aged 10 or more
Score very badly these days
They are 0-75 since 1999
They are 1-104 since 1992

THISTLECRACK is too old Aged 11
Has not won a race since 2016
MIGHT BITE is rejected aged 10
Flopped on his two runs this season

CLAN DES OBEAUX is improving
He has had a very impressive season
I have two problems with his chance
Horses running in the Gold Cup
Running in the previous 32 days
Have a 0-63 record since 1997

CLAN DES OBEAUX ran 27 days ago
His Denman Chase win is a concern
Will this race come too quickly
Has a stamina problem as well
Horses sired by Kapgarde
Running in Listed and Graded races
Racing over 3m 1f and more
Have a 0-15 record so far
Improving and could easily win
But the above issues make me nervous

ANIBALE FLY shares a similar problem
Horses running in the Gold Cup
Running in the previous 32 days
Have a 0-63 record since 1997
The last 17 winners of this race
Had won a Grade 1 race and he hasn’t
He has had 22 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts

KEMBOY is a 7 year old
Long been on my shortlist for this
But there are 3 factors against him
But Past 7yo Gold Cup winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
Kemboy has raced only twice
Sire has had no wins yet over 3m 2f +
Not so bothered about that argument
But Ruby Walsh has turned him down
For him to win Walsh has to be wrong

NATIVE RIVER

15 Chase starts is forgivable
But he has had 23 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts

He did win the race last season
Only 4 of the last 50 winners
Followed up and won this again
Will one or two improve past him
The stableform another problem

PRESENTING PERCY

Made the original Shortlist
But that avoided his main problem
Not run over fences in 12 months
Many say he is the second coming
Obviously high class and fancied
Nobody really knows how he will run
But his profile is too extreme for me

BELLSHILL

Always looked promising for this
His 9 Chase runs is good
21 lifetime runs is about the maximum
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts
But Ruby Walsh has chosen him

INVITATION ONLY is an 8yo
High class horse on his day
But he comes from a handicap
He is low down the stable pecking order
Ruby Walsh has rejected him
He is 0-4 in his Grade 1 races so far

ELEGANT ESCAPE

Surprisingly good positives
Made the original shortlist of 4
Sired by Dubai Destination worries me
Flat bred and I can’t have the pedigree
But I can be a sire snob in these matters
I said the same before the Welsh National

That was an astonishing performance
The 3 horses winning that with 11st 6lbs +
All went on to win a Cheltenham Gold Cup
He has defied his pedigree before
Can’t be ruled out with 11 chase runs
But Colin Tizzards horses are very flat
His run after Chepstow was decent
Race came soon enough after Chepstow
Very hard to come out of that race
Within the next month and win any race
And second to Frodon looks good now
I like that he made my original shortlist
We get 20/1 to compensate for negatives
The top of which would be the stableform

INVITATION ONLY won the Thyestes
Beat Alpha Des Obeaux that day
Next day in Future Betting Angles
Said I had a small bet at 50/1 to win this

SHATTERED LOVE is a mare
No reason at all why that is an issue
Intriguing she made my first shortlist
Official Ratings have her way behind
But she is a huge price to compensate
And her form can be upgraded
Cheltenham Festival winner last year
Fairyhouse came too soon for her next
Only a couple of weeks after Cheltenham
Went to the well too often at Punchestown
Those April races last season
Were her 7th and 8th run of the season
Not easy to see her as over the top
This year a much lighter campaign
Obviously it is a leap of faith
But I think she is underestimated

Astonishing race
Deep strength in depth

Think we have to stay
With the lighter raced profiles
And not be afraid of big prices
Which is why I am going with value

£2.25 Each Way SHATTERED LOVE 25/1

£2.25 Each Way INVITATION ONLY 33/1

£1.00 Win Bet ELEGANT ESCAPE 18/1

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PS Odds above were rough average market odds
when this was sent out to full members earlier this morning.
Do your best to hunt around for best prices at the time toy bet yourself.
You may even find higher than the above in spots.

Note most bookies are offering 4 places.

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Just a few advance researched stats for
you for Saturday’s Imperial Cup at Sandown.

Phase 1 stuff I would deem these.

They are primarily all about
identifying elements of form
that have historically produced
either positive or negative effect.

Phase 2 then would be a later secondary
stage where actual runners are assessed
against such positive and negative trends.

Phase 3 is then attempting to interpret it all
to try and find value in the market. Phase 3 is
normally finalised on the morning of the race
once runners and going are more fully defined.

There is no miracle system.

More so hard work and effort at research
can help one make more consistently
accurate decisions about winners, losers and value.

 

 

 

Saturday Sandown 2.25pm

Imperial Cup Race Statistics

 

The last 20 winners of this race
All ran within the previous 92 days

Past winners of this race
Had the following hurdle runs
15 4 5 4 4 19 8 6 5 3 3 9

An exposed winner last year
Normally winners have <10 hurdle runs

Recent winners of this race
Had the following runs that year
4 8 5 8 4 8 3 6 6 3 3 8

None have won with 0-1-2 runs

Horses aged 7 or more
Have a 4-145 record since 2001
All 4 of these winners aged 7 +
Carried 10st 5lbs or less weight
Horses aged 7 or older
Who carry 10st 6lbs or more
Have a 0-94 record in this
Horses aged 7 or more
Absent more than 6 weeks
Have a 0-42 record in this race

The last 16 winners of this race
Had never won more than twice before

Since the 2009 renewal
Horses from Novice or Maiden Hurdles
Have a 0-34 record in this handicap

Since 2001
Horses from Handicap Hurdles
9 or more previous hurdle runs
Have a 1-118 record in this race
That sole winner was last season

Horses with 11st 3lbs or more
Have a 0-55 record in this since 2004

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Below is a snippet from our Full member message of yesterday
in which Guy was having an early look at this year's
Cheltenham Gold Cup.

I thought I would post it up here in case any
of you blog readers had an interest.

Note as well that it has been tradition over the past 
few years to also post up here on the blog his 
final judgement Gold Cup Analysis. 

Typically this will be on the morning of the race.
This year we will probably do the same.
I temper it with the "probably" only because
one can never guarantee how things will pan out.
Cheltenham non runner no bet markets do give
a certain comfort to slightly earlier than day of the race 
betting.There is always a chance that Guy may spy a degree of 
extra edge from earlier Gold Cup advice for our full members.
eg say for example there was a change in predicted going for 
Gold Cup day two days before the race. Perhaps under NRNB it 
may be shrewd to take the current price on a going suited 
horses instead of waiting for two days
when it will likely be shorter.

Hence "probably" here on Gold Cup day :)

The best spot to be of course is in as a full member for 
Cheltenham month.

We will actually be doing a cheap offer deal as we 
have done in past years.
Many major festival only types come back year 
after year for the Cheap Cheltenham month deal.

Drop me an email if you want more info
See http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/contact.asp





===================================================
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Today I wanted to make some progress

On the Cheltenham Gold Cup

Which is now just 16 days away



Cheltenham Gold Cup

9/2 Clan Des Obeaux 9/1 Presenting Percy
6/1 Native River 11/1 Kemboy 14/1 Might Bite
16/1 Thistlecrack 20/1  Al Boum Photo
25/1 Road To Respect 33/1 Elegant Escape
33/1 Shattered Love


If you go back to 1999

19 renewals
17 of the 19 winners
Shared the following profile

1) Under 10 years old
2) Under 15 Chase runs
3) Absent more than 4 weeks
4) Coming from a Graded race
5) Starting under 10/1 last time
6) Under 21 lifetime runs
7) Starting 20/1 or shorter


19 renewals since 1999
75 horses had this profile
17 of these won the race

Horses with this profile

Presenting Percy
Shattered Love
Elegant Escape
Kemboy

Just looking at that shortlist
KEMBOY would be my preference

I would not use this profile religiously
It would only take minor adjustments
And I could add other horses to the list
Take the example of Al Boum Photo
Just ran in Listed class not Graded class
I could easily forgive a few horses angles
Road To Respect could have got there


Anyway

Wanted to have a look at the main runners
Listed some of their positives + negatives
And see where we ended up at the end

9/2 Clan Des Obeaux 9/1 Presenting Percy
6/1 Native River 11/1 Kemboy 14/1 Might Bite
16/1 Thistlecrack 20/1  Al Boum Photo
25/1 Road To Respect 33/1 Elegant Escape
33/1 Shattered Love


Number of Chase runs

22 Frodon
21 Bristol De Mai
18 Definitly Red
15 Native River
15 Road To Respect
14 Anibale Fly
13 Might Bite
13 Clan Des Obeaux
11 Elegant Escape
11 Shattered Love
9 Bellshill
8 Thistlecrack
8 Kemboy
7 Al Boum Photo
5 Presenting Percy


This is an illustration
Of how exposed the main runners are

The Previous 23 Gold Cup winners
Had the following career chase runs

12 9 18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11
12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

21 of the 23 last Gold Cup winners
Had under 15 previous chase runs



FRODON

22 Chase runs
Just looks too exposed

BRISTOL DE MAI

21 Chase runs
Just looks too exposed

DEFINITLY RED
18 Chase runs
Not in line with almost all winners

NATIVE RIVER

15 Chase starts is forgiveable
But he has had 23 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts
He did win the race last season
Only 4 of the last 50 winners
Followed up and won this again
Will one or two improve past him
Can he repeat previous heroics
When the ground may not be soft

THISTLECRACK

11 years old
Horses aged 10 or more
Have a very poor  record
They are 0-75 since 1999
They are 1-104 since 1992
He has also had 23 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts
Has not won a race since 2016

MIGHT BITE

10 years old
Horses aged 10 or more
Have a very poor  record
They are 0-75 since 1999
They are 1-104 since 1992
Flopped on his two runs this season

PRESENTING PERCY

5 Chase runs
You can win this with 5
Interrupted Season
Just 1 run this year (hurdles)

CLAN DES OBEAUX

Has a 27 day absence
Horses running in the Gold Cup
Running in the previous 32 days
Have a 0-63 record since 1997
Has a stamina problem as well
Horses sired by Kapgarde
Running in Listed and Graded races
Racing over 3m 1f and more
Have a 0-15 record so far

ANIBALE FLY

Not a certain runner
Horses running in the Gold Cup
Running in the previous 32 days
Have a 0-63 record since 1997
The last 17 winners of this race
Had won a Grade 1 race and he hasn't
He has had 22 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts

SHATTERED LOVE

She is a mare
Official Ratings have her way behind
Big price if you wanted to risk her

ELEGANT ESCAPE

Defied his pedigree before
Can't be ruled out with 11 chase runs
But flat bred and just can't have the pedigree


Leaning more towards these horses


AL BOUM PHOTO

He is a 7yo
Has raced just once this season
Past 7yo Gold Cup winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
Worried about a 7yo with 1 run
That is my only problem with him
Two recent winners had 1 run that year
Thats a positive but none were 7yo's
He is also coming from a sire
Without a winner over this far

KEMBOY

He is a 7yo
Maybe fast improving
But Past 7yo Gold Cup winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
Kemboy has raced only twice
Sire has no wins yet over 3m 2f +

INVITATION ONLY

Backed him at 50/1 some time ago
Seen as not a certain runner

ROAD TO RESPECT

15 Chase runs is acceptable
Finished a decent 4th in 2018 race
Connections say he wants it soft
His numbers don't really prove this
Stamina may be an issue sired by Gamut
His sires runners in Class 4 or higher
None have yet won beyond 3m 1f (0-13)
I would not rule him out on the above

BELLSHILL

9 Chase runs is good
21 lifetime runs is the maximum
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts


Provisional Shortlist

INVITATION ONLY 50/1 (WP Mullins)
AL BOUM PHOTO 20/1 (WP Mullins)
KEMBOY 10/1 (WP Mullins)
BELLSHILL 14/1 (WP Mullins)
ROAD TO RESPECT 25/1


Obviously things can change
May have a completely different view later
But these 5 horses interested me most

4 of the 5 shortlisted
Are trained by Willie Mullins

Can't find any prices yet
Just for Mullins to win this race
But that could be an option later on

This list could be whittled down
Invitation Only may run elsewhere

Obviously the biggest headache
Not knowing the stable pecking order
But looking at this experimental shortlist
Looking at the prices and frame of race

If the race was being run today
I would probably stake it this way

£2.50 Each Way KEMBOY 10/1
£2.50 Each Way BELLSHILL 14/1

The race is not being run today
There is still much we do not know
Such as ground and running plans
Still clinging on for the vain hope
That we may be offered 4 places
I don't think we will get that though

But this is where I am with the race

No final selection ( just yet )
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Posted under Major Horse Races