Galway Festival Misdirection

The piece below is a short extract from Guy’s full member message for clients of www.mathematician-betting.co.uk from earlier in the week.

I thought it interesting comment so I have popped it up here.

I guess if seeking educational points from it they may include:

#1 – Don’t implicity tust racing media articles.  Journalists are humans with flaws. They are often paid by the word and not by how much you win following their lead. They can take short cuts and often don’t dig deep enough into the facts that matter to punters who want to find edge.

#2 – Poorly thought out but mass media hyped stuff can be a good thing if you can spot it and have done the work to know they are wrong.  If it causes extra demand on what you don’t want to back you will be more prone to find good value on what you do want to bank.

#3 – If you like to pick your own you might future benefit from Guy’s interpretation of Gordon Elliot’s words.

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Galway  Festival

A recent headline in the Racing Press

“Elliot Buoyed Up For His Lucky Track”

It was an interview with Gordon Elliot about
this weeks Galway Festival. I know the best
stable this week is Dermot Weld so I thought
I’d just have a look at Gordon Elliott’s record.

* Galway Festival since 2009

* Gordon Elliott’s runners

* There was a 0-64 record

So much for being his Lucky track !!!

Whoever wrote that article is an Amateur
To be fair he scores well here in the Autumn
His runners at this festival though are 0-64
It would make me think twice before I bet him

That Gordon Elliot article was very lazy but it
did throw up a quote I felt was just fascinating.
Read it and bear in mind he has a 0-64 record.

” It’s a very busy time for us in the next couple
of weeks. All the good winter horses will come
back in and we’ll start them off slowly and get
them going. We’ll have some smashing horses”

This infers that all these good horses he trains
have been away and haven’t resumed training
yet and will be out running later in the season.

This infers all his Galway Festival runners are
his second division horses and perhaps this is
why this trainer has a 0-64 record at this festival.

We should pay attention to this stat this week

Galway Festival since 2009

Dermot Weld 55-192
Gordon Elliott 0-64

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on July 31, 2015

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Grand National Tips

We have just popped up some detailed research into the Grand National

over on our main site.

see here Grand National Tips

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on April 3, 2015

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CHELTENHAM The Statistical Awakening

They say we are an intelligent and honest service
based on statistics. I think it’s a bit more than that
and whilst Statistics divide people it’s a far bigger
area that most people realise as our clients know.

If I go back 10 years and look at my past messages
at Cheltenham they look so out dated now. These
are full of tired clichés and well known statistics.

The old chestnuts are still going strong
5 year olds can’t win Champion Hurdles until they do
6 year olds can’t win the Gold Cup until they do

Times have changed
Racing has changed
Our Analysis is always improving

That said it is heartening to see so many more use
statistics, data and analysis. In the last few seasons
there has been a statistical awakening in punters.

Nowadays so many more gamblers are improving
and going through an awakening with betting and
the use of racing statistics. So too are bookmakers
Tipsters, Journalists, Authors and Bloggers as well.

As a service though we have moved on. I read the
mainstream statistics and recognise these angles
as something I was doing several years ago. I feel
heartened to see many people use them well and
they are useful but these days you do need more.

Bookmakers know all about these angles and you
will find them quoting weary old statistics purely
from memory such is the extent that some of the
statistics are so far in the public domain. Its now
no longer to use these tired old arguments well.

For the last few seasons we have not stood still.

We have been developing and using some far
better angles very successfully. Our results are
better now than they have ever been and when
you consider we never advertise and rely only
on long term members and people that enquire
about us it shows we are doing something right.

When I advise a bet we want you to understand
why your are having the bet and the reasons to
do that. We are not afraid to test things out and
take risks when we need to. Members tell us it
is a service that leads the way and teaches you
how to improve your betting simply through an
intelligent approach that nobody else manages.

As an example let’s take Cheltenham
Handicap Hurdles and Handicap Chases.
Horses aged 11 or more

Many people will tell you horses aged 11 win
and they do but they won’t tell you that those
few winners aged 11 were very similar types

They won’t tell you if 11 year olds manage to
win if having an absence or carrying weight
or how many runs they have needed to win.

As it happens no 11 year old has managed to
win a Cheltenham handicap without having
a race in the previous month. We search to
find the angles that really matter. We look to
find Precedents and areas of weakness and
we collate these all and interpret them and
show members why they are betting horses.

We develop combination statistics showing
what type of horse wins each race and why.

I am working on a race next week right now

I find that in the last 6 years of this race
5 of the 6 winners had the same profile
Only 9 horses ran with this profile since 2009
These horses had a 5 winners from 9 record.
They won at 12/1 16/1 20/1 25/1 14/1
This will be a race fully discussed next week
Members will have full access to these angles

It is an angle I have never used before
It illustrates that we are never standing still.
We never stop working for clients
We are still several years ahead of the rest
Fascinating to see others catching up now
The Statistical awakening is growing each year
They are working the same way we did years ago
In a few years time they will be where we are now.
Join us and see how far ahead we will be then

If interested in joining now is the time.
My Cheltenham deal offers you first month savings.
The deal covers not just Cheltenham
but also the Aintree Grand National Festival.
Plus of course all mid week and Saturday action
before and in between.

There is a super strong refund guarantee on it because
I know how much effort I have put into preparing for Cheltenham
and I am highly confident you will not be disappointed.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

Excellence. Integrity. Profit.

Best wishes
Guy Ward
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 6, 2015

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Injured Jockeys Charity Bet

Injured Jockey Fund Charity Bet

As I mentioned on our free newsletter yesterday
I am making use of b etfairs all customers invited
free bet offer today with winnings if any to be donated
to the Injured Jockey Fund.

The constraints I have to work with here are
- It must be at Ascot or Haydock
- It needs to be SP 3/1 or better.
( this bit is of course impossible to assess with 100% accuracy before the off )
- I am also seeking to use one of the races Guy has covered in his Saturday Message
- I promised a 1pm post time so I can’t select early races

This Saturday he has an Account Bet at Huntingdon
The two from his “Selections” category are at LingField.

ie his three strongest advices for today do not fit the “must be Ascot or Haydock” criteria.

He actually said to members

“Plenty of rain about and it’s soft
if not heavy at three National Hunt meetings.

I’ve made Lingfield the spine of the message
as there will be no significant changes there
and we know what we’re getting. I’ve dipped
into the National Hunt races I liked but there
are many big field handicaps on bad ground
at Ascot and Haydock and I’m dropping a few
of them this year if these look far too difficult.”

So we are into the Profile and Preview section of his message.
This section you can picture as a write up of research and analysis
he has done while seeking good value.

It is very possible for him to work a few hours on a race and
end up with no apparent stand out value that would merit elevation
of the advice to one of the stronger bet categories.

In Profiles and Previews today he has analysed 12 races.
Some in greater detail than others and as for reasons cited above
not too many at Ascot or Haydock.
Bearing in mind the race time criteria above I am left with only one race really that I can possibly select for our charity bet and it is one he has only done a very short write up on.

 

The 3pm Betfair Chase at Haydock

Guy says

“Considering the Betfair Chase is one of the best
early season races it is surprisingly very low on
my priority list. I don’t the race or the track or my
angles in this race and never have done. Its only
a very tokenistic view so if you fancy something
don’t let me put you off. I looked at the horses in
this race that had a chance that had proven form
over 3m 1f in Soft or Heavy ground in Grade One
Class there is only CUE CARD that has achieved
that. He’s Top on Racing Post Ratings and comes
out second on Official Ratings. Having won this
race last year he seems a reasonable e/w option.

Selection

CUE CARD 4/1

Each Way”

So Cue Card it is then for our charity bet under the b etfair offer
I have bet £25 on the nose at 4/1 and it may pay out
more under best odds guarantee if SP is greater.
Winnings if any will be sent to the Injured Jockeys Fund.
If it does win then any bonus free bet from them will
also be bet on behalf of the IJF ( on another day ) and I will post up here
in advance of the off if so.

Here’s hoping lady luck smiles on us.

A good start to the day so far for full members as I type.
The 11.50 race Guy got right.

The same with the 12.10
Same with the 12.20

So 3 out of 3 so far today.

Best wishes
Mick
Site Admin

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on November 22, 2014

Paddy Power Gold Cup

The Paddy Power Gold Cup

This is the headline race today and judging by my inbox the one most casual punters are interested in.

I thought I would stick up my thoughts on it here on the blog.
This comes from the Profile and Previews section of my larger full member message. There are other races I feel offer better value today but here is my tuppence worth on the big race.

Cheltenham 2.30

The Paddy Power Gold Cup is a 2m 5f Graded Chase

This is a massive early season race but it does
not smell like a traditional renewal. Maybe that
is down to the two market leaders from smaller
stables. I have good angles I do want to follow.

* Horses don’t win this rated 135 or lower
* KING MASSINI fails this angles
* Not sure he has the class to win
* His Rating suggests not so he isn’t for me
* The last winner aged 10 or more was back in 1975
* None have placed since as far back as 1993
* ORPHEUS VALLEY fails this and other angles
* CEDRE BLEU hasn’t done enough after 14 Chase runs
* Horses aged 5 have a 1-20 record since 1997
* That was Cyfor Malta (1998) a seasonal debutant
* He had 4 Chase runs in England and 3 more in France
* He was the only 5yo winner since as far back as 1960
* CAID DU BERLAIS is the only 5yo today
* He only has 3 previous Chase runs – too few for me
* The recent winners had the following chase runs
* 9 5 8 7 6 3 9 5 6 5 12 15 10 5 27 7
* The horse with 3 career runs was a Gold Cup winner
* CAID DU BERLAIS looks short of what I want
* CANTLOW – I don’t want a 9yo with a miserable last run
* EDGARDO SOL is 7 and has run this year
* Both 7yo winners doing that won last time
* EDGARDO SOL didn’t but ran well in second
* I feel he has plenty of weight with 11st 4lbs
* Especially when never run over fences here before
* A Lack of Cheltenham Chase form worries me
* Especially when so proven on flatter tracks
* He is only a small horse and may not get home
* CHAMPION COURT has 20 Chase runs
* The last 9 winners had run in less than 10 chases
* 9 of the last 11 winners had run in less than 10 chases
* I’d prefer a horse with 5-15 Chase runs ideally 5-12 runs
* Not convinced about him after a poor seasonal debut
* I don’t think a big field helps him
* I looked at CHAMPION COURT’s sire
* 2m 4f or more – Listed/Graded race – Soft of Heavy
* So far his sires runners are 0-16 under these conditions
* On the plus side he does seem very well handicapped
* EASTLAKE – 20 Chase runs is far from ideal
* He is not like any 8yo that has won this
* OSCAR WHISky is a 9 year old
* Clearly very talented but flawed
* I just see him being caught out in such a race
* Big field and fast pace will surely put him under pressure
* He is the Class horse and has a Wind Operation
* Has the ability but like many I expect him to fail
* JOHNS SPIRIT won this last year
* He had 10st 2lbs and a mark of 139
* This year 11st 10lbs and a mark of 156
* 15 of the last 16 winners were rated between 136 and 150
* Clearly a significantly harder task on paper rated 156
* He has a earnt his weight though to be fair
* His last run was a career best Racing Post Rating
* The weight may beat him but he won’t be far away
* Previous 6 year old winners were rated 136 138 139 139
* No 6yo won with 11st 3lbs or more since 1960
* KAPGA DE CERISY is 6 and rated 148
* No 6yo has won rated within 9lbs of that
* He has more weight than all 6yo winners too
* SHANPALLAS is a 6 year old rated 147
* No 6yo has won rated within 9lbs of that
* He won the Munster National last time
* Doesn’t strike me as the best trial for this
* Never won on ground softer than good
* PRESENT VIEW does not have any Graded form
* The vast majority of past winners had that
* That is a big worry but it is eased by last years winner
* He was also 6 and also lacked Graded Class
* He only had 10st 2lbs though
* PRESENT VIEW has a higher weight and mark
* Past 6 year old winners were rated 136 138 139 139
* PRESENT VIEW has to defy a mark of 144 in this race
* He also comes from a Hurdle race and no past winner has
* His Racing Post Ratings are pretty average as well
* Look at Past winners Career best Chase Racing Post Rating
* 141 163 154 156 146 138 152 148 166 144 158 158 169 155
* PRESENT VIEW has achieved a 146
* 10 of the last 14 winners had bettered that
* I don’t see a good enough case to select him

P o s s i b l e s

* ERICHT is 8 and has run twice this season
* He’s surely done enough to argue the track is ok
* He has a 141 Racing Post Rating at Cheltenham
* Thats as good or better as 4 of the last 13 winners had
* The other 9 had higher numbers but he has a chance

* BUYWISE is 7 and won this season
* I don’t have a big statistical problem with him
* You can argue no past winners came from a hurdle
* He has now crucially proven he handles Cheltenham
* The fences though do take some jumping
* He has made several mistakes in 2 races there so far
* This is a much better race off a 12lbs higher mark
* They will go a lot faster than the race he won in April
* Could win but could easily fail on his jumping

* EASTER METEOR is an 8yo seasonal debutant
* Seasonal debutants aged 8 have struggled
* The last 8yo to win first time out was before 1988
* In the last 16 renewals they were 0-31
* None winning makes him unsafe
* With 13 Chase runs he has more than any 8yo winner
* That said he ran a great race in last years race
* He fell 2 fences out when in the lead
* EASTER METEOR has also changed stables
* He has upgraded to the Pipes
* There could be any amount of improvement
* I fancy him more than I should do on his profile
* Statistically though he should not be the choice

* PERSIAN SNOW is 8 as were 3 recent winners
* All 3 winners aged 8 ran within 2 weeks
* His 28 day absence doesn’t worry me much
* He comes here after a career best R.P.Rating
* That rating was better than 3 of the last 14 winners
* In a bad year with a bit of luck he could win
* I think he has to be considered here

* INDIAN CASTLE is a 6yo seasonal debutant
* He was favourite for the Kim Muir at Cheltenham
* He failed my Generic Stats in that race
* There were 2 recent 6yo’s winning first time out
* They had 5 5 Chase runs and a light weight
* INDIAN CASTLE has 4 Chase runs and 10st 8lbs
* I can live with that profile but he has another problem
* INDIAN CASTLE has no Graded form which is a worry
* That’s easier to overlook as he is lightly raced

Selection

INDIAN CASTLE 10/1 Win Bet

PERSIAN SNOW 14/1 Saver Bet

EASTER METEOR 12/1 Saver Bet

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on November 15, 2014

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