Cambridgeshire Statistics

The Cambridgeshire on Saturday

Statistics for Saturdays main race are below for you .
This race won’t play a significant
part in Saturday’s full member message.
I know however that many will like
a crack at one of the best handicaps of the year
so if you want to have a go the angles may help.

You may come to a different conclusion from me
if applying these angles as these are left open to
some interpretation. On my first scan of the race
I came out with two horses that I liked best. They
are not selections yet, simply early impressions.

Preliminary Shortlist

VELOX 12/1
BRONZE ANGEL 20/1

=======================================

Saturday 3.50

Ante Post Statistics

betfred Cambridgeshire
(Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2)
1m1f Row

Cornrow 6/1, Educate 10/1, Queensberry Rules 10/1
Extremity 11/1, Homage 12/1, Velox 12/1, Tenor
14/1 Bronze Angel 16/1, Energia Davos 16/1, Forgotten Hero 16/1
NiceofyouTotellme 16/1, Balty Boys 20/1, Bartack 20/1
Gabrial’s Kaka 20/1, Bancnuanaheireann 25/1, Chancery 25/1
Big Johnny D 25/1, Boomshackerlacker 25/1, Buckstay 25/1,
Dance And Dance 25/1, Fort Bastion 25/1,
Genius Boy 25/1, God Willing 25/1, Indian Chief 25/1,
Maverick Wave 25/1, Pacific Heights 25/1, Quick Wit 25/1,
Sound Advice 25/1, Spa’s Dancer 25/1, Spirit Of The Law 25/1
The Rectifier 25/1, Tigers Tale 25/1, Tres Coronas 25/1,
Ingleby Angel 33/1, Yeager 33/1

* The Cambridgeshire is a Handicap over 9f
* No horse has won this with under 5 career starts
* Look at the results of horses that had 1-2-3-4 runs
* 5 30 26 29 18 6 33 16 11 20 28 18 10 22
* 5th and 6th place is the best any achieved

* Horses from 7f or shorter won 4 races
* They all finished 1st or 2nd last time out
* They all had 4 or more runs that season

* Past winners with over 20 career starts are 7-278
* They all had at least 4 runs that season
* None of these were aged 7 or more
* They were all Male
* They all ran within 42 days
* Those beaten 6 + lengths last time out were 0-126
* None had more than 9st 2lbs weight

* Look for a horse from a Grade 1 Track
* The Last 24 winners came from these Grade 1 Tracks
* Ascot (5) Doncaster (7) Goodwood (2)
* Newbury (5) Newmarket (1) Sandown (1) York (3)
* Over 180 horses came from Smaller non Grade 1 tracks
* All 180 of these horses were beaten

* Horses coming from Listed or Group class score badly
* Last years winner did it but none before that in decades

* You want a horse with Class 2 form
* Only 1 winner in the last 23 years lacked Class 2 form
* That was Halling 1994 a 3yo with only 5 previous runs

* Horses aged 3 have a 6-193 record
* These 6 winners had 10 5 12 11 5 5 runs
* They had 4 5 6 8 5 5 races that season
* They were absent 100 65 14 22 44 21 days
* None had form in Listed or Group Races before
* 5 of them had Class 2 form the other Class 3 form
* The 3yo winners won from ratings of 95 90 102 97 107 93
* There were 3 winners unraced as 2yo’s with 5 runs as 3yo’s

* Horses aged 4 have a 9-269 record
* Past 4yo winners had 14 8 7 10 12 5 10 22 20 runs
* Past 4yo winners had 7 6 4 0 5 1 1 9 6 races that season
* Past 4yo winners were absent 35 14 14 342 56 190 84 22 7 days
* 4yo winners came in many different forms
* They did all have Class 2 form
* Only last years winning 4yo had Group Class form
* Before last year 4yo’s with pattern class form were 0-84
* He won by a short head so he only just bust that 0-84 stat
* I’d prefer no Group runs for 4yo’s but it has now been done
* 4yo winners won from ratings of 104 102 99 87 99 92 91 85 84

* Horses aged 5 have a 2-141 record
* They were 0-112 until winning in 2010-2011
* Horses aged 5 that win had 21 and 26 career starts
* They had 5 and 7 runs that season
* They won with absences of 2 and 16 days
* They won from marks of 91 and 87

* Horses aged 6 had a 5-85 record
* Thats the best strike rate of any age
* All 5 finished within 6 lengths of the winner last time
* Past 6yo winners had 23 26 46 13 21 runs
* Past 6yo winners had 4 7 8 8 7 races that season
* Past 6yo winners were absent 42 14 7 13 21 days
* They did all have Class 2 form but no higher though
* 6yo winners won from ratings of 100 95 88 78 92

* Horses aged 7 or more are 1-68 since 1991
* That was back in 1992 and just 1 has won since 1980

* Be wary of last time out winners
* None that ran within 7 weeks have won for a long time
* The last 63 to try since 1996 have been beaten

* Few winners come from any conditions races
* No winner dropped from 12f in the last 23 years
* No winner of this race came from Class 4 or lower
* Female horses won 3 renewals since 1987
* All 3 had between 5-20 runs and aged 4 or more
* They all carried 8st 8lbs or less
* I looked at winners that were absent a month or more
* They tended to have under 15 career starts
* Horses beaten more than 6 lengths last time are awful
* Only 1 of the last 23 winners came here beaten that far

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on September 26, 2014

Horses To Follow

Get high quality racing advice this Saturday

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass


10 Horses of Interest

Guy introduced a new element to the full member

messages this week.

I guess it is a little bit like a Horses To Follow Style
list based loosely around horses who ran ok from a pretty bad draw.

The core premise of it is that such horses can do better in
future races run on a more level playing field that perhaps as basic assessmentof their poor draw finishing position may lead on to believe.

There is of course a degree of appreciation for such stuff in betting
markets.

As such it can help to look at draw bias in a slightly different
stance than is commonly reported to the crowds.

He said to full members:

Draw Statistics are a major part of my daily message.

I don’t know anyone who looks at Draw biases in the

same way as I do and I think it works. It is impossible

to get the Draw right all the time but I think we do it

very well and often find the draw matters in races at

distances and tracks that most people do not realise.

I decided to come up with this list of horses to follow.

I have chosen them purely on the following criteria.

* I can illustrate they had a very bad draw last time

* I watched their last run on video and felt positive

 

He then went on to list ten horses he had noted

as worth adding to this list.

Below is one of his notes.

 

PROCLAMATIONOFWAR

* Ran well from Stall 15 at Beverley last time

* Since 2013 there have been 118 Beverley handicaps

* Thats 118 Beverley races at any and every distance

* No horse has won from 13 or higher at Beverley 2013-14

* That is over any distance and not just over 5f

* He was badly disadvantaged from Stall 15 in this race

 

With Horse To Follow lists I guess there may

be two main style of punter approach.

Those prone to seek mechanical methods

that require little thought may be more likely to

do something like bet each horse for the next X runnings

or until it wins.

Others will treat it just as a reminder of a horse

worthy of scrutiny and consideration in a future race.

Guy I guess would fall into that second camp.

He is not going to Account Bet something

just because it ran ok from a poor draw last time

and act blind to other key factors of form, other runners

and with zero consideration to the concept of value odds.

As it happens Proclamationofwar is running this evening (
Friday )

It is the first of his Ten Horse list to have a live run.

He covered the race in his Profiles and Previews section.

Profiles and Previews I guess you can consider as extra analysis
and viewpoint for races he examines while looking for firmer strong advices
for either his Optional Account of Full Account tips.

It is not uncommon for him to research and write five or six
several races daily yet find not one horse worth a proper bet.

His is a totally different thought train to the average
mug punter who more so says..”I am going to bet in this race..which horse will it be?”

I have copied that Profile & Preview piece below for
you

 

Musselburgh 8.40

Racing Posts Odds

6/4 Twin Appeal, 7/2 Beautiful Stranger, 6/1 Cahal

10/1 China In My Hands, 10/1 Miss Acclaimed, 10/1 Mitcd

10/1 Proclamationofwar, Torridon, 20/1 Lomond Lassie

33/1 Connexion Francais.

I sent a list recently of “10 horses of interest”
that had

recently run well from bad draws. The first of these is

running in this race. PROCLAMATIONOFWAR is on the

list so I need to mention him. He has been gambled.

Statistically he is quite weak though. I liked his race

over 5f at Beverley but he moves up to 7f today. In all

similar races Male horses going from 5f to 7f are 0-40

in similar races and I don’t like his profile. I will leave

it up to you but I couldn’t select him. Perhaps the split

stake is best with TWIN APPEAL having a good profile.

* Horses coming from 7f handicaps

* Running within 3 weeks

* 4 career starts

* 2 runs this season

* Starting under 10/1

* Beaten last time

* 4 horses had this profile finishing 2 W 4 W

* TWIN APPEAL has this profile

I don’t really want to bet TWIN APPEAL at the price

PROCLAMATIONOFWAR my draw horse is unsafe statistically

Maybe the compromise is a split stake bet

PROCLAMATIONOFWAR to place 11/0

TWIN APPEAL to win 6/4

 

Anyhow I just wanted let you know about this new angle on
the full service.

You may see future reference to it in Saturday Day Pass messages.

It could perhaps be notes on a new horse added to the list
or info about a past addition running that day.

If so at least now you have a fair idea of what it is all
about.

Best Wishes

Mick

Site Admin

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

 

NB If you want in for Guy’s Saturday Analysis here is the
link

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass

Note the 12 noon cut off point.

( this pos was originally sent by email friday evening )

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on May 24, 2014

Scoop 6 Syndicate

LATEST NEWS: Scoop 6 £10 Million Rollover Special

We are running a multi thousand pound Scoop 6 syndicate with full members here for Saturday May 17th.

50 tickets in the syndicate will be bought on behalf of our group of daypass buyers this week. Any profits due on these 50 tickets will be paid out to this week’s daypass buyers. We will email day pass members on Saturday lunch time with a full list of all horses covered in our big syndicate perm. The last few times we did similar our syndicate pot exceeded £10k. Such a large pot gives vastly increased chance of winning compared to an individual covering just a few options.

So not only will you get our high quality racing advice for Saturday. You will also be in with a chance of a share of our syndicate’s Scoop 6 winnings.

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==>   Saturday Horse Racing

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on May 16, 2014

Tags: , ,

Grand National Tip 2014

Ok our tuppence worth on the Grand National for you as promised.

 

Aintree 4.15

Grand National (Staked to £10 nominal total stakes for clarity)

COLBERT STATION 50/1 £4 Win £1 Place

RAZ DE MAREE 50/1 £2 Each Way

BURTON POINT 16/1 £1 Win

 

Today is mainly about trying to get the National
winner and for reasons given later I have ended
up on a couple of outsiders. I decided against a
Full account bet. In no hurry. I can’t imagine we
can do any better today than the last two days

G r a n d N a t i o n a l

I have spent a lot of time on the race perhaps a
bit too long and I am not confident this year. My
biggest headache is that since the race became
easier and the fences smaller it is hard to know
what to do with the smaller undersized horses.

Pre the changes I’d have ruled these out with a
bit of confidence but It isn’t safe to do this now.

It’s a problem as there are several smaller types
this year. Burton Port has one of the best profiles
and is well treated but he is undersized. He had
to make my shortlist. So too did Raz De Maree a
small horse again. The modifications have only
made judging these horses harder and the race
is more a burden than a pleasure at the moment.

 

 

A i n t r e e 4.15

Crabbie4s Grand National Chase
(Handicap) (Grade 3) 4m3f110y

8/1 Teaforthree, 10/1 Monbeg Dude, 12/1 Double Seven
12/1 Long Run, 14/1 Tidal Bay, 16/1 Burton Port, 16/1 Pineau De Re
16/1 Prince De Beauchene, 16/1 Rocky Creek, 20/1 Balthazar King
20/1 Big Shu, 20/1 The Package, 20/1 Triolo D4alene, 25/1 Lion Na Bearnai
25/1 Shakalakaboomboom, 33/1 Alvarado, 33/1 Chance Du Roy
33/1 Colbert Station, 33/1 Hawkes Point, 33/1 The Rainbow Hunter
40/1 Mountainous, 40/1 Mr Moonshine, 50/1 Across The Bay
50/1 Battle Group, 50/1 Last Time D4albain, 50/1 One In A Milan
50/1 Our Father, 50/1 Quito De La Roque, 50/1 Raz De Maree
50/1 Rose Of The Moon, 50/1 Vesper Bell, 50/1 Vintage Star
50/1 Walkon, 66/1 Buckers Bridge, 66/1 Golan Way, 66/1 Hunt Ball
66/1 Kruzhlinin, 66/1 Twirling Magnet, 66/1 Wayward Prince
80/1 Swing Bill.

The Grand National has changed recently and not many
people think for the better. The Fences have been made
easier making a level playing field. There were only two
fallers in last years race. No horses fell yesterday in the
Foxhunters either. It makes ruling out horses harder and
with several small undersized horses this year we can’t
make the safe assumptions we could in past years. That
said there are still many trends that have stood up over
many years in this race and still have since modifications.

I ran my angles very quickly just to see if there was any
stand out horse and they returned me 6 I could shortlist.

BALTHAZAR KING
LION NA BEARNA
MONBEG DUDE
BURTON PORT
SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM
RAZ DE MAREE

It is only the first of several steps to trying to find the winner.

* The last 24 winners had the following runs that season
* 7 4 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 2 5 4 6 7 6
* Clearly having 4-5-6-7 runs this year is ideal
* I can live with 3 runs if the horse is unexposed
* If he has under 21 National Hunt runs and 9-20 chase runs
* Only won Miinnehoma 1994 with 2 runs that year
* The following horses look underraced to me
* ROCKY CREEK – WALKON – THE PACKAGE
* RAINBOW HUNTER -CHANCE DU ROY – GOLAN WAY
* ROSE OF THE MOON – ALVARADO – LAST TIME D’ALBAIN
* SWING BILL – BIG SHU

 

* It is very important to have a recent race
* The past 21 winners all ran within 8 weeks
* I do not want a horse absent more than 60 days
* The last 21 winners were absent this many days
* 35 56 35 23 21 41 32 27 48 28 20 25 42 20 24 35 23 16 35 23 35 23 25
* Look at the absences of the Runner Ups
* Horses 2nd in the National had the following absences
* 49 30 45 49 25 27 21 22 22 100 35 23 63 345 28 16 44 18 42 21 23 23 102
* 19 of the past 23 Runners Ups also ran within 7 weeks
* I am prepared to have some leeway with 60 days absence
* The following horses fail this statistic
* ROCKY CREEK – BATTLE GROUP- MOUNTAINOUS
* PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE – RAINBOW HUNTER
* VESPER BELL – ROSE OF THE MOON
* MINELLA FOR VALUE – ALVARADO

 

* Horses aged 6 and 7 have appalling records
* They haven’t won since 1940 and few even finish the race
* Horses aged 6 and 7 are too young
* The following horses fail this
* TRIOLO D’ALENE – KRUZHLININ

* Chasing Experience is of obvious importance
* The previous 22 winners had the following Chase runs
* 23 27 12 12 24 14 13 10 11 37 41 14 12 24 17 25 10 23 16 9 14 28 14
* The least Experienced Chaser was Miinnehoma in 1994
* He had 9 previous Chase runs
* There were two more that had 10 Chase starts
* Horses with Under 9 Chase runs are unlike any past winners
* I looked at the Chase runs of the last 20 Runner Ups
* 9 11 10 24 18 11 13 15 23 14 20 10 11 9 19 14 9 8 24 32 22 8
* I would be wary of any horses with under 9 Chase starts
* The following horses and fail this statistic
* ROCKY CREEK (7) OUR FATHER (6) HAWKES POINT (7)
* VESPER BELL (8) ROSE OF THE MOON (6) ONCE IN A MILAN (6)
* MINELLA FOR VALUE (8)
* We have to bear in mind the race is changing
* The 2012 4th (Cappa Blue) had just 6 chase runs
* Mely Moss was 2nd in 2000 with 5 Chase starts
* Lord Atterbury was 3rd in 2004 with 4 Chase starts
* The race has been made easier recently

 

* 22 of the last 23 had raced in Graded Class before
* The vast majority of the runner ups also did this
* The ones that did not were mainly lightly raced
* Having No Graded form is not acceptable
* The following horses and fail this statistic
* KRUZHLININ is 7 and fails it lacking any Graded form
* MINELLA FOR VALUE also lacks Graded form

* DOUBLE SEVEN fails it despite having had 27 career runs
* He has never raced in Graded Class before either
* Half the price because MCCoy rides any value has gone
* Another thing I don’t like is that he is a small horse

 

* Class is important in a Grand National Winner
* 12 of the last 13 winners won in Listed Grade or higher
* The exception was Ballabriggs (2011)
* He had won in Class 2 race but hadn’t been tested in higher
* I’d argue he should be seen as a Graded winner
* He won the 2010 Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival
* It was a Class 2 handicap but he did that with Topweight
* That was more than worthy or a Graded win
* The following horses and fail this statistic

* MR MOONSHINE – TEAFORTHREE- BIG SHU – OUR FATHER
* VINTAGE STAR – HAWKES POINT- KRUZHLININ – PINEAR DU RE
* TWIRLING MAGIC – VESPER BELL- LAST TIME D’ALBAIN
* SWING BILL – ONCE IN A MILAN – NIGHT IN MILAN
* MINELLA FOR VALUE- ROSE OF THE MOON

 

* I think we should ignore the weight statistics
* The 2012 winner won with 11st 6lbs
* The 2010 winner won with 11st 5lbs
* Red Rum won with 11st 8lbs and again with 12st
* Corbiere won with 11st 4lbs and Grittar with 11st 5lbs
* L’Escargot won with 11st 3lbs and Gay Trip with 11st 5lbs
* I wont be ruling any horse out on their weight

* HUNT BALL seems an unlikely winner to me
* He fails only minor statistics though
* Such as winning more than 6 handicap Chases
* No past winner had won more than that
* Every winner since 1970 had won over at least 3m
* HUNT BALL hasn’t so I would ignore him

* PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE has not run in 79 days
* The last 21 winners all ran within 56 days and that’s a worry
* He also has to come from a 2m 4f race which is not ideal
* No recent winner did that when as exposed as he is
* He also has to prove he will stay
* His sire hasn’t yet bred a winner over 3m 2f or more

* TEAFORTHREE was 3rd in last years race
* He carries 5lbs less weight this year
* The main stat he fails is failing to win in Listed Grade or higher
* We know 12 of the last 13 winners had done that
* Personally 3rd last year is good enough to ignore that
* He is 1 year older this year and has 1 fewer runs this season
* When Ballabriggs won he has 12 Chase runs and 3 that year
* TEAFORTHREE has 14 chase runs and 3 this season
* TEAFORTHREE has also never won a Handicap Chase
* Past winners had won the following number of handicaps
* 3 3 3 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 6 0 4 4 5 4 3 3 1 1 2
* Only Bindaree won with 0 Handicap Chase wins
* TEAFORTHREE has more positives than negatives
* I don’t like his price though
* I don’t think a prep run in the Gold Cup helps him much either

* ACROSS THE BAY unseated rider last time
* Not the best preparation for a race like this
* He was 14th last year beaten 87 lengths in this race
* He has only finished in 10 of his 15 Chase runs
* I don’t like his lack of form in big field Handicap chases
* Look at his record in Handicap Chases with 11 + runners
* UR 8 14 7 PU PU PU UR
* His Sire’s won bred a winner over further than 3m 5f yet
* Too many doubts given a poor run in last years race

* BALTHAZAR KING may not get this distance by King’s Theatre
* I don’t want a Cross Country horse much as Silver Birch did it
* Won at Cheltenham I don’t like him enough here
* He was thrashed in this last year
* His trainer said after the race he did not get the trip
* Look at his sire King’s Theatre
* His runners in Listed and Graded races
* When running over 3m 2f they are 0-24
* He has winners in 3m 7f Cross Country races (Class 2)

* LONG RUN is a top class horse in regression
* After year of Grade 1 races this is his first handicap chase
* Past winners had ran in the following Handicap Chases
* 17 9 7 5 21 8 8 6 6 24 33 7 12 14 12 15 7 16 7 4 7
* LONG RUN has no experience in this kind of race
* He is Sired by Cadoudal who’s runners at 4m + are 0-16
* All 16 lost and just 1 managed to place over 4m +
* LONG RUN has ran 14 times since 2011
* His Worse 4 Racing Post Ratings were his last 4 races
* That shows regression and he lacks big field experience
* His Class may get him through but there are holes in his profile

* MONBEG DUDE has a reasonable profile
* Nothing statistical worries me about his chance
* Far from convinced his jumping is good enough
* He may want the ground to be softer as well
* You would also worry if a Flat track suited him
* At 14/1 he does not tempt me

* LION NA BEARNAI – I don’t really want a 12yo if I can help it
* Not sure he will stay this far either
* I did a search for all Graded Handicap Chases
* In recent years horses aged 12 or more are 1-174 in these
* LION NA BEARNAI fails that and looks wrong

* TIDAL BAY is 13 and has topweight
* The last winner aged 13 was back in 1923
* He certainly has the class and he may well win
* I just can’t live with a 13yo Topweight in the race
* Not given that 1-173 statistic that Lion Na Bearnai also fails

* BUCKERS BRIDGE has never won beyond 2m 4f
* I don’t think he will have the stamina or substance
* WAYWARD PRINCE probably wont cope in this race
* Not given the form he has shown recently
* QUITO DE LA ROQUE has to prove he will stay
* His Sire hasn’t bred a winner beyond 3m 1f yet
* He is a Mudlark without a turn of foot
* He may not find ideal conditions
* The last 21 winners had ran in at least 4 Handicap Chases
* QUITO DE LA ROQUE has only ran in one
* He hasn’t shown enough recently to risk him

* MOUNTAINOUS won the Welsh National
* He has 9 Chase starts which is borderline
* He has a longer absence than any past winner
* I’d prefer a more recent run and softer ground

* SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM may not have achieved fitness
* His recent form also suggests he is not fit enough yet
* Sometimes you have to look beyond these things
* This is a horse I would keep on side around 40/1
* I like his age and breeding
* May well have gone off to fast at Cheltenham
* Very nearly made the shortlist

 

S h o r t l i s t

* RAZ DE MAREE gets through all my main angles
* Biggest concern is he in smaller than ideal
* Another horse giving us a dilemma now the fences are easier
* He has won a Munster National easily albeit off a low weight
* He is riSky but his profile and price do offer something

 

* BURTON POINT has a very solid profile
* One of the strongest in the race and very attractive
* He is handicapped to win if he can return to his best
* My only worry with him is his size and the big field
* He is a small undersized horse and I don’t like that
* He won over hurdles in a 15 runner race
* He led all the way that day avoiding any traffic
* He was 2nd in a Hennessy in a big field which will reassure some
* He had a featherweight that day and was at his peak
* He has clearly been laid out for the race
* Big field and Aintree fences will be his main worry
* I find it hard to bet a small undersized horse in a big field

 

* COLBERT STATION – I have backed him at 75/1
* He passes all my “Must have” statistics
* At that price I’d expect some problems though
* Tony MCCoy has rejected him
* Not worried. Mc Coy doesn’t think statistically
* He chose wrong twice at Cheltenham in big races
* He has chosen a small horse without any Graded form
* His reasons for doing this were simply ridiculous
* COLBERT STATION Fell in last years race
* I would think he did considering he had just 5 Chase starts
* He had a longer absence than the previous 21 winners as well
* He shouldn’t really have run
* This is a good horse though
* He has a Racing Post Rating of 159
* He has won a 22 runner Chase worth 89k very easily before
* He now has 9 Chase starts which is my bare minimum
* I appreciate that’s not many but he is a 75/1 chance
* He was going very well before falling at the 15th last year
* Clearly his jumping is a worry
* COLBERT STATION has not finished in 2 of his last 3 Chases
* That worries me but last years winner fell several times before
* Since the Fences were made easier it’s less of a problem
* I can live with that considering he is a 75/1 chance on Betfair
* Trained by Ted Walsh he has several recent excuses
* He has probably been trained for this race all season
* He is too smart to right off
* His experience in last years race shouldn’t be considered
* I think it has been and that’s why he is such a big price
* Don’t forget he was a 12/1 chance last year with more weight
* I also like he is a 10 year old as this statistic shows

This is an interesting statistic. Older horses dominated recently.

2010 – The 1st 2nd 3rd 5th 6th 7th 8th were aged 10 or more

2011 – The 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th were aged 10 or more

2012 – The 1st 4th 5th 6th 7th were aged 10 or more

2013 – The 1st 2nd 4th 5th 6th were aged 10 or more

 

Selection

COLBERT STATION 50/1 £4 Win £1 Place

RAZ DE MAREE 50/1 £2 Each Way

BURTON POINT 16/1 £1 Win

 

Best Wishes

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on April 5, 2014

Cheltenham Gold Cup Analysis

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Cheltenham 3.20

LAST INSTALMENT 7/1 Win Bet

ON HIS OWN 22/1 Each Way

The main issues are well documented. I feel
LAST INSTALMENT has every chance and has
one of the best two profiles. My each way bet
ON HIS OWN is obviously a hard case to make.
I think he is a crazy sort of price and although
many argue he fails trends it is not necessarily
the case. I think these 2 have serious chances.

 

Cheltenham 3.20

betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

7/4 Bobs Worth, 5/2 Silviniaco Conti, 13/2 Last Instalment
8/1 Triolo D´alene, 14/1 The Giant Bolster 16/1 On His Own
25/1 Lord Windermere, 33/1 Teaforthree
40/1 Lyreen Legend, 50/1 Katenko, 66/1 Cloudy Too
66/1 Knockara Beau, 100/1 Houblon Des Obeaux.

* The Blue Riband event of the festival
* Lets get rid of the No Hopers
* Horses aged 11 and over have not won this race since 1969.
* KNOCKARA BEAU is too old and not good enough
* KATENKO and CLOUDY TOO are outclassed
* HOUBLON DES OBEAUX is not good enough
* TEAFORTHREE is out of his depth

* TRIOLO D´ALENE won the Hennessy last time out
* Bobs Worth did that recently but I can’t have him
* Bobs Worth was a Grade 1 Festival winner
* TRIOLO D´ALENE has never run in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race
* His 2 previous runs here were heavy defeats
* TRIOLO D´ALENE is rated only 158 far too low

* LORD WINDERMERE and LYREEN LEGEND are connected
* They were 1st and 2nd in last years RSA Chase at the festival

* LYREEN LEGEND was 2nd in last years RSA Chase
* It would worry me he has won just 1 of 8 Chases
* He is rated lower than any recent Gold Cup winner
* The last 23 winners had this in common
* They had a Racing Post Rating of 155 + last time out
* LYREEN LEGEND only managed a rating of 154
* After 18 career starts 154 is his highest Racing Post Rating
* Every other horse has bettered that rating before
* That amongst other things must rule him out

* LORD WINDERMERE has a similar profile and problem
* He is rated lower than any recent Gold Cup winner
* The last 23 winners had this in common
* They had a Racing Post Rating of 155 + last time out
* After 15 career starts 157 is his highest Racing Post Rating
* Almost every other horse has bettered that rating before
* LORD WINDERMERE only managed a rating of 157

Now if LYREEN LEGEND or LORD WINDERMERE win this
race at a big price it will be down to the fact the course
ground or time of year brings them alive but I suspect it
was a very poor RSA Chase last year which was openly
said at the time and these two dominated a bad renewal
and it is hard to make a case for them when they have a
set of numbers that just look so far behind the standard.

SILVINIACO CONTI

I don’t doubt he has enough ability to win this race but
I feel he is too short around 100/30 for a horse that may
not stay. When he fell in last year’s race some argue he
wasn’t beaten but I doubt he would have stayed on well
enough to win. I question his stamina. I don’t like horses
that are undersized like him. He isn’t a big horse and he
is not proven yet in a field as big as this. Statistical he’s
fine but I don’t like his size and question his stamina as
he is taking on some big Irish improvers with substance.

BOBS WORTH

Little doubt he’s top class and won this last year and was
always going to have a good profile this year. He has got
a massive chance but not really for me. I wouldn’t want to
ask him to win this again. It was a gruelling race last year
and he was in trouble at one stage before staying on late.
On this ground he could find himself in more trouble and
having to come from off the pace. We can’t be sure last
years race has not left it’s mark. Last season he recorded
Racing Post Ratings of 167 174 and 181 yet this year from
two runs he has clocked just 142 and 163 and there is the
possibility he won’t recapture last years form. He is still
the most likely winner but at the price I am against him.
He touched 10/1 in running last year and on fast ground
he could easily do the same this year. I just don’t like the
short price when he will be carrying battle scars this year.

 

THE GIANT BOLSTER

* THE GIANT BOLSTER now has 19 previous chase runs
* Recent Gold Cup winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 8 9 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11 Chases
* He is now out of range of the ideal profile
* 16 of the last 17 winners had 13 or fewer Chase runs
* He was 4th last year and 2nd in 2012 though
* He Loves the track and has plenty of class
* I did see him as a potential each way bet at 16/1
* He wants fast ground and a small field
* He should love the ground but the field size worries me
* 14 runners is not as small as I’d like
* I think he is at the limit of his stamina
* He has won over 3m 1f 100 yds before
* His Sire has not yet bred a winner winning over further
* You couldn’t rule him out but maybe just falls short

ON HIS OWN

* This horse is a 10 year old
* Horses aged 10 or more have a 1-93 record since 1993
* It’s not the best of records but don’t worry about that
* He is a late foal and actually not quite 10 yet in real terms
* ON HIS OWN does have only 12 career starts though
* 16 of the last 17 winners had 13 or fewer Chase runs
* That goes a log way to compensating for his age
* He also didn’t start racing until he was almost 6 years old
* I have mentioned I think he will win the Grand National
* He has every right to run here after a brilliant last win
* His last 2 runs show significant improvement
* There is a case that he jumps a bit right handed
* He has won left handed three times before though
* The track is an open question mark
* Ignore his poor run here back in 2011 over 4m
* He had no chance in that race and it’s irrelevant
* He was 4th in a Neptune Hurdle which is encouraging
* Ability wise I think he has everything he needs to win
* Just not sure about whether he can deliver here or not

LAST INSTALMENT

* He is a lightly raced improver
* He won the Irish Hennessy last time
* He has won 5 of his 6 Chase runs so far
* Recent Gold Cup winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 8 9 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11 Chases
* LAST INSTALMENT has 6 runs and I quite like that
* One of his problem is No form at Cheltenham
* That is a disadvantage he has to overcome
* 13 of the last 16 winners placed at a previous Cheltenham Festival.
* The other is the ground as most of his form’s on soft
* Said to have fragile tendons it would be a worry
* That said the new course is slower than the old course
* He has a very appealing profile and the potential to win

 

Selections

LAST INSTALMENT 7/1 Win Bet

ON HIS OWN 22/1 Each Way

For Live best odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2014-03-14/cheltenham/15-20/betting/

 

 

 

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