Welsh Grand National

This is a copy of Guy’s Welsh Grand National analysis from last weekend.
I am popping it up here as it helps illustrate a few key points which I will discuss at the base of the page.

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1 Profile & Preview bet

Welsh National day albeit rearranged but still an
important race for us if not our signature race of
the year. This week has been dominated by the
weather and the glorious winning run we’ve had.

The unbeaten winning run has now ended which
takes pressure off and allows us to get back to a
normal routine as my messages this week looked
distorted as this was about winners not analysis.

Today is simply dominated by the Welsh National
with the primary aim to stake a bet on the winner.

If I had been on a bad run then I would have had
a safer bet but we have earnt the right this week
to try and end it with a bit of glory even if this is
a contest that will be run in desperate conditions.

 

Today’s Bet

Chepstow 1.45

Part Win Bet Part Place Bet
2 Savers
Staked to £10 For Guidance

Main Bet

WOODFORD COUNTY 14/1

£6 Win + £2 Place

Savers

MOUNTAINOUS 10/1 £1 Win

BOB FORD 16/1 £1 Win

WOODFORD COUNTY

Try and Get 5 Places
The best places to go are below
The best firms are top of the list

18/1 1/4  1-2-3-4     888sport – 32Red
16/1 1/4  1-2-3-4-5  bet365 – PPower- Corals
16/1 1/4  1-2-3-4     stan james – Betway
14/1 1/4  1-2-3-4-5  Skybet- ToteVCLadbrokes-Hills
14/1 1/4  1-2-3-4     Boyles – Spbet

Staking Plan

If BOB FORD wins we will win a small amount

If MOUNTAINOUS wins we can’t lose

If WOODFORD COUNTY Places we can’t lose

WOODFORD COUNTY winning is the main bet
If he wins we will have a winner around 11/1
With Money back chances on 3 other eventualities

 

Chepstow 1.45

WOODFORD COUNTY 14/1

£6 Win + £2 Place

Savers

MOUNTAINOUS 10/1 £1 Win
BOB FORD 16/1 £1 Win

Philip Hobbs is a top class trainer
This horse may yet be very good
At least good enough to win this off 10st 3lbs

We don’t know he is not very good yet
He has only had 12 Chase starts
He was favourite last year and finished 7th
Well beaten last year that will put many off

It has pigeon holed him into an unwelcome category
One of lacking the Class to win
And not being suited to the race
That is why he is 16/1 this year
There is a good chance he has been misjudged

He has had 6 runs in 2015
The first 5 were defeats
There were cast iron excuses for each run
His last race he won
That was a career best Racing Post Rating
Off a featherweight on ground he loves
I think he has an outstanding chance

Chepstow   1.45

Racing Post Odds

15/2 Cogry, 8/1 Mountainous, 8/1 Upswing
9/1 Emperor´s Choice, 9/1 Shotgun Paddy
12/1 Tour Des Champs, 14/1 Black Thunder
14/1 Bob Ford, 14/1 Return Spring, 14/1 Woodford County
16/1 Benvolio, 16/1 Red Devil Lads, 20/1 Bertie Boru
20/1 Fourovakind, 20/1 Masters Hill, 20/1 Saroque
25/1 Firebird Flyer, 25/1 Portrait King, 33/1 Allez Vic
33/1 Chase The Spud.

The Welsh National

Handicap Chase over 3m 5f run on Heavy Ground

BLACK THUNDER surely has too much weight
Much more than any other horse
It takes a Gold Cup performance to win with 11st 12lbs

I am taking out horses with poor recent runs
Go back to 2003 in this race
Horses beaten more than 12 lengths last time are 0-74
MASTERS HILL didn’t do enough last time
Not the right age and unsafe on Breeding stats
His Sires runners over 3m 1f + in Class 2 + are 0-15
None of the 15 that tried did better than a 5th place
BENVOLIO ran too badly last time out as well
He is sired by Beneficial which is a worry
I go into more detail about this sire later
BENVOLIO was 2nd in last years race
He’s had 3 runs since and all were miserable efforts
ALLEZ VIC lost too badly last time and fails the 0-74 stat

It’s now 20 years since a 10 year old won back in 1993
FOUROVAKIND is 11 but we should see him as a 10yo
As he would have been 10 without the abandonment
He badly fails my breeding statistics too
PORTRAIT KING is 11 and net a 10 year old
He is older than ideal and comes here PU and Fell
CHASE THE SPUD has nowhere near enough backclass

I need to deal with horses sired by Beneficial
Horses by Beneficial rarely win similar races
Ignoring Hunters and Cross Country races
The Sires runners over 3m 4f and more are just 1-101
Just take those in Graded races and all 34 lost
BENVOLIO (Already rejected) has this sire
UPSWING and RED DEVIL LADS also share this sire
I have to be a bit careful here
Beneficial did sire the runner up last year
UPSWING from this sire can’t be ruled out on sire stats
The Sire of his Dam has bred the 2002 winner of this
The Damsire has bred placed horses too in this race
One day soon a horse by Beneficial will break this statistic
I’d be very wary about opposing UPSWING on sire stats
There is an Age statistic I’ve found with this sire
If you look at horses sired by Beneficial
That were aged 7 or less
None have yet won over 3m 3f or more yet
All 51 that tried were beaten aged 7 or less
That does worry me about UPSWING
He is also having his 4th run of the season
21 of the last 22 winners had just 1-2 runs
UPSWING also has a career high mark to overcome
He has just been raised 3lbs for getting beaten
I won’t make him a negative despite his sire
But there is evidence in different areas raising concern
RED DEVIL LADS is sired by Beneficial
We know horses aged 7 or less by this sire
Have a 0-51 record running over 3m 3f or more
I don’t see him being the first to do so
He has never been out of a Class 3 race before

CORGY is  sired by King’s Theatre
King’s Theatre’s bred many Listed /Graded winners
Those that ran beyond 3m 2f were 0-47
CORGY is only a 6 year old
Only 2 horses his age have won since 1948
If you look at the two winners aged 6
They were several months older than him anyway
CORGY was a May Foal in 2009 and is younger
It’s enough to put me off
He has plenty of weight too and 6 weeks off
And he is 0-10 never placing 1-2-3 in fields of 10 or more
SAROQUE looks an unlikely stayer by a flat bred sire
Look at horses sired by Revoque
The furthest any of his runners have won at is 3m 3f
That was on much better ground in lower Grade
Look at this Sires runners in Class 2 or higher
Those that raced over 2m 6f or more are 0-23
FIREBIRD FLYER shouldn’t have the class
He has 17 Chase runs
Yet he’s never got himself into Listed Graded races
He is 0-11 in Class 2 races and never ran in better grade
I looked at his sire Winged Love
His runners over 3m 4f or more
Have a 1-34 record in Class 2 and higher
Not the most persuasive breeding statistic

EMPEROR´S CHOICE won this last year with 10st 8lbs
He tries to repeat that victory with 11st 1lbs
My biggest problem is having 1 race in a year
He has only raced once since last years win
He won first time out this year in a small field
But one run in a year is a problem statistically
We know last time winners were all lighter raced
If he wins so be it but I hate his preparation

SHOTGUN PADDY pulled up in last years race
Bad mistake at the 2nd and pulled up before the 7th
He had topweight last year
This year less weight – but 11st 5lbs is still a tough ask
Horses with 11st 1lbs and more have struggled
Just 3 have won with 11st 1lbs or more
Since the mighty Carvills Hill back in 1991
Look at the 3 horses that managed it
Master Oats did it with just 7 opponents
He went on and won a Cheltenham Gold Cup
Synchronised won with more than 11st 1lbs
He went on and won a Cheltenham Gold Cup too
Halcon Genelardais was the other horse to do it
He was far lighter raced and had less weight anyway
I think his last run earns him respect
But the weight is a problem
And the only 8yo winners with big weights
Both went on and won Cheltenham Gold Cups
TOUR DES CHAMPS won on his 1st run this year
He defied a massive absence to win
If I look at past winners who won last time
They were all lighter raced than he is
Worth remembering he pulled up in last years race
Perhaps a big field doesn’t suit him well
TOUR DES CHAMPS is 0-11 in Listed and Graded races
That is another worry and will he stay anyway ?
He is by the sire Robin Des Champs
Look at his runners in Class 2 or higher
None have won yet beyond 3m 1f
I don’t see enough I like about him

I think one of 5 horses might win

BERTIE BORU
RETURN SPRING
WOODFORD COUNTY
BOB FORD
MOUNTAINOUS

BERTIE BORU should not be underestimated
I thought he ran well at Sandown last time
I said that in the message the following day
I said I had 50 tenners about him winning this
He passes all the important angles
Last winter he was highly progressive
I fancied him at Sandown last January when he unseated
He then ran two bad races after that fall
There could easily be excuses for those bad losses
He was repeatedly hampered in the Eider Chase
He then was put away for the year
He came out and ran badly in the Badger Ales
That was his seasonal debut though
He probably was not fit
His next run at Sandown really impressed me
As I said earlier I backed him for this straight away
There is one problem for me
He is a Small type of horse
He will most likely be in last place early on
He will be unconvincing at a few fences
He will then creep into the race
You will probably want to cancel your bet early
You may then think – hang about – he has a chance
Then in the last 3rd of the race
It will depend on what energy has been saved
If this had been a 10 runner race
He would be a Maximum Bet each way at 25/1
But in a huge field heavy ground and a small horse
I just know there is huge potential to disappoint
Worth a bet at 25/1 but his size is a worry

RETURN SPRING was beaten 15 lengths last time out
Slightly more than ideal but that is forgiveable
He lost and shoe and had excuses last time
His Breeding profile worries me
I am far from convinced he will stay
He has 3 runs in long distance chases
He was Pulled Up and beaten 41 + 63 lengths
The others on my shortlist all have an extra prep run

BOB FORD won last time
The extra space since the abandonment helps him
He has yet to win in this Class before though
He can’t seem to string 2 good runs together
Perhaps he is a horse that needs a small field ?
If you look at last time out winners in this race
There were 5 winners who had fewer Chase runs
Those with 9 or more Chase runs were 1-30
BOB FORD has 17 Chase runs
He has far more weight than that winner
Not convinced with is inconsistent profile
Interesting he is trained in Wales
And all 6 wins have been at Welsh Tracks
Perhaps he is a horse that hates travelling
And only runs to form when racing locally
Not unknown for a horse to have this problem

MOUNTAINOUS is a 11 year old
We need to think of him as a 10 year old
We have to go back 20 years for the last 10yo winner
The issue is should we forgive him that
On the grounds that he won this race in 2013
Possibly we should but he has raced 3 times this year
This is his 4th race and that is far from the norm
There is a good reason to ignore his age
He did not start racing properly until he was 6 years old
You may remember I fancied him at Sandown last time
He ran a great race on ground a bit too quick
If you look at 10 year olds with under 12 Chase starts
Running within a month carrying under 11st
There was only a 0-9 record with these horses
Most of these were rank outsiders and one was 2nd
Maybe it is time to ignore this age statistic
Look at MOUNTAINOUS’s individual record
When running on Soft or Heavy
When running in the last 31 days
When beaten under 30 lengths last time out
He has a W W W 4 W W record
Despite his age I give him a big chance

WOODFORD COUNTY was 7th in last years race
He looks a better horse now he’s had more experience
Last time out he won a 3m 6f handicap on heavy
Ground and Distance won’t hold any fears
And he has a featherweight than must help
He’s never won beyond a Class 3 race before
I don’t mind that at all given his form
He has placed in a Midlands National
He has placed in an Eider Chase
I opposed him in this race last year
I didn’t feel he had enough backclass
I opposed him in the Eider Chase next time
He was a negative and underaced for such a test
I opposed him in the Midlands National too
The Eider Chase is a horrible trial race for Uttoxeter
I felt the race would come too soon
Now he managed 3rd in both those races
Two Gruelling marathon races run 3 weeks apart
It’s no wonder he flopped next time out at Haydock
I opposed him at Haydock because of his schedule
Welsh National Eider and Midlands National
It was just too much for him and understandably so
That was it for the season after that race
He needed his seasonal debut this year
WOODFORD COUNTY won his 2nd run last time out
That run on Racing Post Ratings was a career best
He’s a course winner and should go very well

Selection

WOODFORD COUNTY 14/1 £6 Win + £2 Place

MOUNTAINOUS 10/1 £1 Win

BOB FORD 16/1 £1 Win

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Some Points and Observations

#1 – As ever some very good and in depth analysis from Guy.
Mountainous won and Woodford County proved Guy’s words about
opting for a bookie with 5 places as sage advice when finishing 5th.
Bob Ford fell but was available in play on Betfair at much much shorter odds providing a trading opportunity for those who like to think that way.

#2 – The benefit of hindsight viewpoint on this individual race
may be that it could have been staked better.
Staked as per message top  eg £6 win and £2 place Woodford County at
16/1 for 5 places and £1 on Mountainous at 10/1 and £1 on Bob Ford would have returned  £21 for every tenner staked.
A win is a win as they say but with tinkered staking it could easily have been more.
Such things tend to even out however time and multiple races.
The root of Guy’s long term success and profitable horse betting
is all to do with in depth research that fine tunes a multi runner race
into one or a few value horses.

#3 – Last weeks blog post contained feedback from a client here.
See Racing Bet Staking

Summing up said clients personal feedback, two key points to boil
it right down might be:

A – Ignore each way advice from Guy and just bet everything on the nose
B – Great all savers as full stakes as they as a subset provide proven long term edge.

So I guess that particular client will be saying “I told you so”
as he would have staked three win singles on the nose
with one of them returning a 10/1 winner.

#4 – This particular race is a useful example to help
explain how we record results here because it is a bet with
more complicated than usual staking.

The vast majority of Guy’s official tips are straight forward win or each way.
He puts them out with a simple level stakes approach.
On certain days however he will opt to split that level stake up across a few runners. When he does that he uses in his message a nominal £10 total stake just to demonstrate how he suggests splitting up the total stake.

So if your normal stake was £100 for the sake of argument.
Many days you would be having £100 on the nose or £50 each way.
Last Saturday you would have had £60 win and £20 place.
Then two further £10 on the nose bets to add up to your normal £100 total.

It’s not rocket science really.
Each official tip we deem to carry equal stakes.
Just that on some days this stake may be split across a few horses.
Simple enough really.

For our results chart and spreadsheet instead of £10 nominal
units I would just note it as 1 pt total.

See the results chart here
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/profit-chart.asp

That chart mirrors how Guy actually advised his stakes.
But as you can see from the client feed back link above
clients are free to stake with approaches that best suit themselves.

And just shout for the official tip results spreadsheet if you want it.

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on January 15, 2016

Racing Bet Staking

Members Feedback on Staking of Racing Tips

This is a bit of feedback from a client we received this week.

I thought I would reproduce it here as it does raise

some interesting points.

Read More…

Posted under Bet Doctor

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on January 7, 2016

Hennessy Gold Cup 2015

In today’s free newsletter

#1 – Hennessy Gold Cup Tipping Competition

#2 – Hennessy Gold Cup Stats And Thoughts

 

#1 – Hennessy Gold Cup Tipping Competition

The last time I ran a tipping comp here was back in April
and I vowed to myself not to do it again as it took me ages
to sort and settle entries submitted by email. But this time
I have done it a little bit easier for me with a simple web
form to collect entries. If this works ok we may just have
a few more of these competitions in future.

This is simple one race only competition with that race being
Saturday’s Hennessy Gold Cup.

You get to pick two horses.

On each is placed a £50 win bet and a £50 place
bet with odds settled according to Betfair bsp for win and
place markets on the day of the race.

[Just think two horses for a £50 each way bet on each
but settled at Betfair
Exchange odds instead of traditional each way ]

You can win full membership time here as a prize and we are
paying out on the top three places.

Here is the link to submit your entry.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/competition/hennessy.asp

It’s 100% free and you may win something so why not have
a pop.

 

#2 – Hennessy Gold Cup Stats And Thoughts

During the week Guy provided full members here with some
early stats and thoughts with regards to the Hennessy.

Just incase you need a bit of inspiration yourself I thought
you may appreciate them. So I have copied them below for you.

 

A n t e P o s t

Newbury

Saturday 28th November

Hennessy Gold Cup Chase

 

[ Find latest Hennessy Odds here ]

I have looked at most of the fancied horses
with a bit more work to do on some of the others.

Today a full set of statistics for this race

Horses aged 11 or more should be opposed
The last ones to win were in 1957 and 1967
Horses aged 10 should also be avoided
The last winner aged 10 was back in 1981
Diamond Edge was the only 10yo winner in 43 years.
Since 1988 horses aged 10 or more are 0-65 in this race

Horses aged 9 are 3-80 since 1992
Horses aged 9 won just 3 of the last 24 renewals
They had 17 7 15 National Hunt runs
They had 12 7 8 Chase runs
Two ran that season having 7 and 8 Chase starts
The other (Denman) was a rare 9yo seasonal debutant
Seasonal debutants aged 9 or more are 1-45
They won from official ratings of 174 139 145

Horses aged 8 are 4-75 since 1992
They had all had a race that season
Horses aged 8 first time out are 0-22 since 1992
The 4 winners aged 8 had 20 18 14 17 National Hunt runs
The 4 winners aged 8 had 14 16 11 13 Chase runs
They won from official ratings of 146 149 162 148

Horses aged 7 have a 11-111 record since 1992
The 10 winners had 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 runs this season
The 10 winners had 16 10 12 23 10 11 18 16 12 5 29 National Hunt runs
The 10 winners had 7 4 3 23 5 4 6 5 6 5 13 previous chase runs
They won from the following official ratings
151 160 156 150 161 151 145 137 136 142 149
The Perfect profile is a lightly raced 7yo debutant
There were 5 seasonal debutant winners aged 7
They all had Grade 1 form before
They had 4 3 5 4 6 previous Chase starts
They won this race in 2001 2005 2007 2010 2012

Horses aged 6 have a 5-49 record since 1992
Horses aged 6 and 7 are the ideal age for the race
The 5 winners aged 6 had 1 0 1 2 1 runs this season
Seasonal debutant 6 year olds were 1-16 in recent years
That winner (State Of Play) had just 4 Chase starts
Horses aged 6 are best with a recent run
They are best with under 8 Chase runs and winning last time
The 5 winners aged 6 had 14 12 6 6 16 National Hunt runs
The 5 winners aged 6 had 11 4 6 4 7 previous chase runs
The 5 winners aged 6 had official ratings of 147 145 142 140 135
One winner age 6 came from a Novice Chase (1993)
The following is an excellent profile
Male horses aged 6
Winning last time out
Running within 18 days
Having 8 or fewer Chase starts
3 horses had this profile
They finished W W W winning in 1994 2003 2004

Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs
16-16-14-10-20-12-16-23-10-12-11-6-6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
Horses with 6-18 National Hunt runs do best
The last few winners had the following Chase races
7-11-4-14-3-12-23-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
12 of the last 19 winners had between 3-7 Chase starts
The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
0-8-0-5-0-21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
Horses with 0-1 Handicap runs do very well
Horses that were 1st-2nd last time score well
18 of the last 23 winners were 1st or 2nd last time
Three of the five that were not finished 3rd
Second-season chasers are the most interesting
They won 11 of the last 16 renewals
18 of the last 22 winners had form in Grade 1-2 before
There were only 4 horses that did not
3 of these had Under 9 career starts
These 3 had 4 5 7 Chase Starts
Horses with No Grade 1-2 form should be lightly raced
I looked at horses that had raced that season
None of the winners came from a Non Handicap Graded race
No Seasonal debutant won without Grade 1 form
Few Hennessey winners have Headgear
No past winner came from a Hurdles race
No past winner came from a Grade 2 Chase first time out
I’d be wary of horses from the Paddy Power Gold Cup
There is precious little recovery time from a hard race
The double has been done by Celestial Gold (2004)
The previous winner to do that was in 1980
It has been done but it is not ideal as a trial race

Early Conclusions

CONEYGREE is now a Non Runner
This means just a maximum of 20 can take part
It means it is quite a poor renewal this year
None of the 1-2-3-4 in last seasons RSA take place

Saphir Du Rheu – Hoping to find a better option
Smad Place – Stamina and a big world are worries
Bobs Worth – I can’t justify a 10 year old
The Druids Nephew – Stamina might beat him
The Young Master – Mild positive but a stamina issue
If In Doubt – Mild positive
Houblon Des Obeaux – Doesn’t offer enough
Valseur Lido – Can’t be discounted just yet
Theatre Guide – 25/1 + is value in a mixed profile

More detail on a few

VALSEUR LIDO

This is a 6yo seasonal debutant
Seasonal debutant 6 year olds were 1-16 in recent years
That winner (State Of Play) had just 4 Chase starts
With 6 Chase starts I’d see him as a positive
He is a Second-season chaser which helps
This is a weak renewal as well
Much depends on his preparation
Is this a Genuine target or has he other plans
He is going to be second top weight
That would scare me off first time out
I also question his stamina as well

THEATRE GUIDE was 3rd in this 2 years ago
He has positives and negatives
But at the price he does look good value
In terms of his negatives he is a bit exposed
Has a few more runs than you would prefer
He is also going to fail my breeding statistics as well
There will come a time soon that his sire wins one of these
There some positives though
8 year olds need recent runs and he has that
He is strangely cost to the other 8yo winners
The 4 winners aged 8 had 20 18 14 17 National Hunt runs
THEATRE GUIDE has 21 National Hunt runs
The 4 winners aged 8 had 14 16 11 13 Chase runs
THEATRE GUIDE has 15 Chase runs
They won from official ratings of 146 149 162 148
THEATRE GUIDE has an official mark of 139
The weights going up suit him
When he was 3rd in this race in 2013 he had 10st 13lbs
He will be carrying much less weight this year

I hope to have a very short Hennessy shortlist
tomorrow. I do fancy one a lot but I have a very
annoying problem with him that won’t go away.

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on November 25, 2015

Tags: ,

November Handicap Stats

November Handicap Stats 2015

Guy has carried out a bit of stat research preparation

work into The November Handicap at Doncaster this Saturday.

I have popped it on a webpage at our main site.

Here is the link is you fancy a nosey at what he has unearthed.

November Handicap Stats

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on November 5, 2015

Tags: , ,

Bookmaker Dormant Account Warning

Most of you know that bookies want to win your money off
you.

But did you know they can just take your cash even if you
do not make a losing wager?

Well they can and they can’t.

Their terms often have provision for dealing
with what they class as dormant accounts.

These would be punter accounts that have
seen no action on them for some time.

It matters little to the punter if such an account
has zero balance in it.

But if there is balance there then this balance has potential
to be eaten away by dormant account fees.

It’s not a quite a free for all however for bookies with
such matters.

Any uk regulated bookie will have standards to uphold in dealing
with such matters. They have to make a fair attempt to contact
the customer for example.

But I can see how a fair attempt using email may not reach
the target.

So rack your brains.

Do you have any old bookie accounts with balance in them?

They may even use an old email address that no longer works.

I got caught out myself with this just this week.

Checking an old email address I had not looked at in six
months

I found a few emails from Betfair from a month ago.

It appears I had set up a second Betfair account back in
2007 and it still had some balance in it.

I had totally forgotten about it’s existence.

If I remember correctly I had set it up as short lived experiment
for a soccer punter mate totrade on using my funds.

Once alerted I quickly logged in and made a super small trade
to kill the dormant status.

But I noted I had been charged £5 each week for 3 weeks
in a row as dormant account fees.

No moans from me towards Betfair about all this.

They contacted my email well in advance.

It was my fault not to check emails in that inbox for six
months.

You stay more alert than me I suggest :)

Learn from my mistakes.

What’s The Positive ?

Well I am actually semi happy as I now

realise I have a second Betfair account with £350 in
it.

So mentally I am £350 up as I had totally forgotten
about it.

I could just withdraw it but that would be no fun.

Seeing as it is totally separate from my main Betfair account

I thought I might do something special with it.

My own mum does a fair bit of voluntary work for Marie Curie.

As a retired nurse she has medical skills they can put to
good use.

My own skills lie elsewhere.

I thought I would try and bet the initial £350 figure
up to a target £700.

If I hit it I will keep £350 and donate the rest to
Marie Curie

What Will I Bet On?

Well if you look at the profit chart

for Guy’s backing tips at

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/profit-chart.asp

it should be clear to see that an approach based on
those would be far from idiotic.

However because this surprise £350 is already in Betfair
I intend to base this on Guy’s advice from his newish lays
section of the full member message here as that is 100% geared for
Exchanges.

As you can see from the list below he has been quite selective
with these.

But also very accurate at identifying shorter priced favourite
to oppose.

Much more so patient sniper like than machine gunnist.

DATE HORSE
Bet Profit
Total Profit
12-May Amber Crystal
£48
£48
13-May Receding Waves
£42
£89
18-May Cry Fury
£62
£151
19-May Peggy Do
£288
£439
19-May Morselle
-£100
£339
22-May Luna Moon
£53
£393
27-May Towering
£104
£497
03-Jun Sophie’s World
£161
£658
08-Jun Hurricane Fly
£52
£710
17-Jun Grangeclare Rosa
£24
£733
02-Jul Zebs Fantasy
£81
£814
03-Jul Jayjinski
£44
£858
08-Jul Rio Deva
£64
£922
14-Jul Lady Gemini
£38
£961
03-Aug General Potempkin
£95
£1,056

The profits above assume you take a maximum risk of £100
on each horse at BSP with 5% commission.

I guess one way of looking at the above figures might be
to say that a client here who had risked £100 on each lay would
now be over £1000 better off in winnings since May 12th.

So even forgetting about additional profits on the backing
tips they would have earned more than our annual subscription fee
over that shortish period.

That’s just one way of following lays.

Some people may prefer to put up a fixed amount for a punter
to take on Betfair. If so their £ risk of loss will
vary on a horse by horse basis according to odds.

It is just my personal preference to veer more towards a
maximum loss per selection.

How Will I Stake My Charity Fund?

Staking on anything is part spreadsheet figures and part mentality.

The mental side is all about an individuals risk and reward
attitude.

In this scenario I am dealing with a small surprise pot of
cash.

I am happy to veer towards over aggression with it.

With a larger pot I could less afford to totally lose I would
play safer with.

What I will do is set my liability on each lay at about 15%
of my bankroll.

That will add a bit of compounding element into it as well.

Out of interest that exact approach would have turned an
initial £1000 into £3.1k over the series of lays as per above.

I will set a three month review date on it as well assuming
the target is not met before then.

Anyhow I will let you know how I get on with it in future
newsletters.

Hopefully the end result at the end of it is that I still
have my £350 and Marie Curie get a cheque for the same.

If I blow the lot well both Marie Curie and myself will be
in the same position we thought we were at a week ago.

 

Lays Spreadsheet

If you have an interest in laying note the spreadsheet I
knocked up

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/download/negatives-spreadsheet.xls

It let’s you examine various staking approaches.

Wipe all Guy’s lays data from it and input your own lays if
you like.

You will note I have added place lay data for all Guys lays
too despite him officially laying in the win market.

There has been good edge place laying them too as it happens.

One for outside the box thinker clients perhaps?

What About This Saturday?

Guy had a reasonable Saturday last week with his sole official
tip placing at 12/1 each way.

I asked him if he had anything useful for you for tomorrow.

He said he was just early into his research for tomorrow at
this stage but he passed on a few stat nuggets for the Shergar Cup Meeting
at Ascot.

++++++++++++++++++++

The Shergar Cup at Ascot started back in 2000

There have been 84 races at this 1 day festival

There are two Generic Stats to consider

All horses that ran aged 7 or more are 1-68

All horses aged 4 or more absent 54 + days are 0-42

++++++++++++++++++++

So I guess those of you who like to pick your own
could use those stat filters to reduce your shortlist
a degree.

No stats are ever infallible of course.

The attitude will always be know the numbers
so you can choose to sway your opinion by them
in order to help gain longer term edge.

Do your homework and you are more likely to pass the test.

Perhaps our clients here are cheaters who pay
big racing swot Guy to do their tedious homework
for them :)

It’s no different in theory really to Warren Buffet
paying skilled stock analysts to do research for him.

Guy’s final conclusions for Saturday you can book

for a one off £3 at

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass

Or if your vision extends beyond a single day
then give him a test for a month at

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

Best of luck for your weekend racing

Mick

PS If you don’t yet have a Betfair account you are probably
missing out on better backing odds and on ability to trade
and lay.

They have a £30 free bet bribe for new accounts at
this link

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on August 7, 2015

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