Cheltenham Gold Cup Analysis 2017

Cheltenham Gold Cup Analysis
Today’s Bet

Split Stake Bet
to a £10 total nominal stake.

Cheltenham 3.30

Gold Cup

£5.00 Win OUTLANDER 11/1

£3.00 Win DJAKADAM 100/30

£2.00 Win NATIVE RIVER 9/2

 
I like this strategy
I think Djakadam will win
But the value has gone now
OUTLANDER has the best profile
Gordon Elliots is on record as saying
He is not in the same league as Don Cossack
That has helped the price a lot
He may be right
But he may not need to be good enough

I have “Bought” my dangers out of the race
This means we are on OUTLANDER at 6/1
With cash back if Djakadam or Native River wins
Very optimistic OUTLANDER can beat the rest
Cue Card has some strong statistics against him
Sizing Europe has to prove stamina
He is only 6 years 10 months old and not a 7yo
Which is a problem also facing Native River

The open issue I can not nail
Is we have horses 6 years and 10 months old
Who come here with recent races
We have horses aged 8 and 9
Who come here with longer absences

Which of these groups are more suitable
Will probably hold the key to the race
Statistically there is no clear cut answer
But I know many recent renewals
Went to 9 year olds with very similar absences
To the one that OUTLANDER has today
And I feel he is a pretty decent choice of bet
A bet I personally think is well staked and protected

 

 

Cheltenham 3.30

Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup
(Grade 1) (5yo+) 3m2f70y

10/3 Djakadam, 7/2 Cue Card, 7/2 Native River, 8/1 Outlander
8/1 Sizing John, 10/1 Empire Of Dirt, 12/1 More Of That
16/1 Champagne West, 20/1 Minella Rocco, 20/1 Bristol De Mai
50/1 Smad Place, 50/1 Tea For Two, 66/1 Saphir Du Rheu
66/1 Irish Cavalier
The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f

Horses with under 15 Chase runs are best
The more over that you have
The less your chance of winning

The last 21 winners had the following chase runs
18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
Only 2 of the last 21 winners had over 13 Chase starts
Kauto Star was one of those
Don Cossack also managed it last year
That does not bother me
Last year was a small field full of non stayers
Most fancied runners had over 13 Chase runs last year
It was the weakest Gold Cup in years

Cue Card – 28 Chase runs
Irish Cavalier – 19 Chase runs
Smad Place – 16 Chase runs
Djakadam – 14 Chase runs
Bristol De Mai – 12 Chase runs
Saphir Du Rheu – 12 Chase runs
Champagne West – 11 Chase runs
Native River – 10 Chase runs
Outlander – 10 Chase runs
Sizing John – 9 Chase runs
Minella Rocco – 8 Chase runs
More Of That – 7 Chase runs
Tea For Two – 7 Chase runs

CUE CARD has problems
I do not like the fact he is 11 years old
Or that he also has 28 previous Chase starts
Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969
All 41 that ran in the last 20 years lost.
Horses aged 10 or more are just 1-102 since 1992
Older horses like CUE CARD struggle in this race
So to do horses with over 13 Chase starrs
CUE CARD with 28 chase runs is too exposed
There is a Breeding angle against him too
CUE CARD is sired by King’s Theatre
If you look at the sires Grade 1 -2 winners
None have won beyond 3m 1f yet
CUE CARD is opposed

Ignore the other horses with over 15 Chases
IRISH CAVALIER does not look good enough
SMAD PLACE has twice failed in this race
SMAD PLACE is 0-12 in Grade 1 races now
Very hard to see some of these being good enough
SAPHIR DU RHEU is rated some way behind the best
He may not stay this far anyway
TEA FOR TWO is talented but miles behind on form
This track hardly seems likely to improve him

MINELLA ROCCO comes here Fell & Unseated
Hardly a Gold Cup winning profile
Because of falling early on last time
He has had just over 2 races this season
Since 1982 there have been 5 winners aged 7
These 5 winners ran 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
MINELLA ROCCO has fewer than all of them
That leaves him short of all recent 7yo winners
That’s why I can’t commit to him

CHAMPAGNE WEST has plenty to prove
He is not proven over 3m or more in Graded Class
His sire Westerner does not inspire me much
Horses sired by Westerner
Running in Class 2 or higher
Running over 3m 2f or more
Have a 0-21 record so far
CHAMPAGNE WEST may not stay

BRISTOL DE MAI is a 6 year old
In fact he is only 5 years 10 months old
That has to be a chilling thought
When Long Run won this as a 6 year old
He did so with an official rating of 179
BRISTOL DE MAI is only rated 154
I will be surprised if he has enough to win

MORE OF THAT has had a disappoiting season
Probably does not matter given his trainer
He was a beaten favourite in last years RSA Chase
No surprised there given he failed multiple angles then
My biggest worry is that he is sired by Beneficial
Not a sire I could trust in Grade 1 races over 3m 2f
MORE OF THAT is still only rated 157
And comes here unseating his rider last time
But I suppose he is the least experienced chaser
He has more scope than Most
He is a Cheltenham Festival winner over hurdles
And a Career best today is highly likely
Bt I think he falls short on a few things
His Jockey is 1-102 at the festival
His Jockey is 0-45 in Chases at the festival

 

 
Shortlist

SIZING JOHN
NATIVE RIVER
DJAKADAM
OUTLANDER

 

 
SIZING JOHN has to prove his stamina
Go back a year and he was running over 2 miles
One of my biggest problem with him
Is that he has only raced once over 3 miles
I may be wrong but I see that as a problem
His Sire has not had a Graded winner over this far
If he stays he is a player but I have my doubts
He is not the biggest of horses either

NATIVE RIVER has had a great year
Won a Hennessy a Welsh National and Denman Chase
I suppose if you nit pick a bit you find some issues
I think he has to be part of the staking plan
But I don’t think he is without criticism

DJAKADAM has 14 Chase runs
He is within the acceptable range for this race
DJAKADAM was runner up in 2016 and 2015
Both years he raced just twice during that season
This year he has also had just 2 prep runs
I would have liked more to be honest
But it has been done and by 8 year olds
And you can argue this is an easier race this year
What swings it for me is last years race
DJAKADAM was only a 7 year old last year
We know all past 7yo winners of this race since 1982
Had raced 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
DJAKADAM last year had under 2 warm up races
He had 1 proper race and fell at the 10th in his prep run
That Fall caused him to suffer an interrupted preparation
DJAKADAM did a Racing Post Rating of 177 last year
He did that in this race when underraced as a 7yo
With an interrupted preparation as well
When he was second in the 2015 renewal
He was technically only 5 years and 10 months
And short of races as well that season
The more I think about him I must upgrade him

OUTLANDER has a nice profile
I don’t think we can underestimate him
Last time out on Racing Post Ratings
OUTLANDER produced a career best 170 run
He has to prove he stays this far
His sire has a Grade 1 winner over 3m
None in this class over further though
But that is not to say he can not stay
And his Numbers are showing consistent improvement
For me he must be part of the staking plan
He is 11/1 and coming off a career best run
Having won a recognised trial race easily

Look at the Ages on the shortlist

SIZING JOHN – 7 year old
NATIVE RIVER – 7 year old
DJAKADAM 8 year old
OUTLANDER 9 year old

This may be relevant

7 year olds have not won for 10 years now
All 17 that tried were beaten since then
Technically if we look at foaling dates

NATIVE RIVER is not yet a 7 year old
SIZING JOHN is not yet a 7 year old
Neither have yet reached their 7th birthday

That pushes me more towards the older pair
DJAKADAM and OUTLANDER

OUTLANDER is 9 years old
He has an absence
If I look at 9 year olds
Absent more than 46 days
Starting under 20/1
Coming from 3m or shorter
Coming from a PatteRn race
I find a 5-13 record
They won in the following years
1999 2004 2009 2010 2012 2016
OUTLANDER must have a serious chance

Gun to my head
I think DJAKADAM will probably win
But too many people think the saver
The value has been sucked out of his price

At the prices I think this is a decent bet
We Buy NATIVE RIVER out of the race
We Buy DJAKADAM out of the race

Leaving OUTLANDER with a good profile
And a Career best last time out
To beat a handful of dangers all with flaws
Selection

£5.00 Win OUTLANDER 11/1

£3.00 Win DJAKADAM 100/30

£2.00 Win NATIVE RIVER 9/2

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 17, 2017

Tags:

Each Way Bet Robbery

With helping to run a horse racing site I am in a better position than many to hear about things that irk and annoy racing punters.  A lot of the same things annoy me too.

One regular little annoyance is when a non runner scuppers my each way bet.

For example I place an each way bet on an eight runner race that will payout if my horse finishes 1st , 2nd or 3rd.

What Happens?

The law of Sod- that’s what.

Some no hoper horse gets withdrawn then with seven runners there are only two places.

My horse comes third.

The bookmaker keeps my money.

Despite being aware of the risk of such stuff I still can’t help feeling a bit gubbed and cheated by the system.

But is there a way to fix this and create a world where less punters have to experience that bad feeling?

I believe so and I sense future  hope as I ranted about in our free newsletter today.

I have stuck a copy on line at this link

eachway scuppering bookmaker rules

 

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on October 14, 2016

Tags: , ,

Cesarewitch Past Winner Profiling

If you have an interest in the Cesarewitch at Newmarket next Saturday note that Guy has done a bit of advance research profiling previous race winners.

I have just sent it out via our free newsletter.

An online copy of it may be viewed here

=>  Cesarewitch Statistics

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on October 7, 2016

The Cambridgeshire 2016

“Difficult but not impossible” were Guy’s words to full members here today with regards to The Cambridgeshire at Newmarket on Saturday.

As I type I see SportingLife cite 86 runners remain. That will get culled down to 30 odd shortly.

Only after that happens will it merit looking at individual runners.

[ Unless of course you are some form of masochist

who enjoys spending time assessing 46 non runners. ]

 

But what Guy did put out today were some stats relative to the race in general.

The last time he looked at this race was in 2014.

Back then the same style of stats led him to his own shortlist of two.

These finished 1st and 3rd. The winner was 20/1 when pointed out.

His base race stats for this year are up on a free to view page at

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/the-cambridgeshire-2016.asp

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on September 21, 2016

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Shock Horror – Tipster Tips Losers!

Tipster Tips Losers

I wrote a bit of a rant on our free newsletter
the other week.

I guess a lot of the hype marketers out there
may have been scratching their heads
at a racing site telling all its free members
that they did in fact tip losers.

Hype marketing school teaches
tipsters to just talk about winners
and nothing else ..yup?

No need to discuss net long term profits.
Instead just whack a picture of a Ferrari up there.
Perhaps a picture of a yacht as well to get any
gullible fool doubting Thomas over the line?

I hate all that tosh.

My own rough rule of thumb might be that
the higher degree of marketing hype
there is , the worse the end product will be.

We here much prefer a smaller number of clients
that will stick with the service longer term.

A client pre fed truth not pure hype
will be better positioned to succeed.

Plus it suits us just grand to dissuade
gold fish brained short term thinkers from joining.

Anyhow I stuck up the newsletter content
as a webpage mainly because it is reasonably timeless
decent advice. I hope that it might someday help sway
a current headless chicken to a future straighter line.

Here is the link

Tipster Tips Losers

 

 

Posted under Bet Doctor

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on August 19, 2016