BLAZING BAILEY

Saturday October 25th

Below is a snippet from my full member message today

Newbury 4.30

BLAZING BAILEY 5/2

BLAZING BAILEY is one of those “If” horses. He is a handicap certainty. He has to win “If” he is fit and “If” he can reproduce his form back on the flat. That makes it possible that he could either win this on the bridle or get beaten out of sight and few will have a confident idea which is more likely. I take the view that at 11/4
he could be the bet of the weekend and off the handicap mark he has he has to be backed and I will be surprised if he is beaten. He could well be Account Status. I have tipped many Account Bets with less confidence than I have in him but as I can not if asked assure you of his fitness I can not really make him one but he looks good to me and looks the best bet today.

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N E W B U R Y

I want to avoid most of Newbury today. Only the last race makes any betting appeal. I dont want to spend much time on the juvenile maidens or the big 2yo races as the angles in these races are not good enough to profit from. MONITOR CLOSELY would have to be the selection in the 1.10 race especially as I dont fancy King’s Song but these short priced maidens in big fields are usually best placed in each way doubles and with unknown dangers it only takes one to lower his colours. I would expect him to just about win.

I would have to mention BLAZING BAILEY though in the 4.30 race. Despite being a 6 year old that has not run since April he has been over hurdles for several years now where he has Top Class staying form over hurdles including a placed effort on the Triumph Hurdle and the Stayers Hurdle and a Grade 1 hurdle win in Ireland. This is a horse that
hasn’t seen the Flat since October 2005. Back then he was rated 62 on the Flat. His Hurdling Career has taken off and he was now reached a rating of 163 so he is now 101 lbs lower rated on the Flat and he has to be thrown in off 62. Normally an unscientific guide would be that you could expect to see a hurdles rating about 40-45lbs better than a
flat rating so for BLAZING BAILEY to have one 101 lbs higher does suggest that if he is anything near fit he must surely go close off a low Flat rating of 62. He looks a Handicap good thing to me and he may well end up as the best bet this weekend assuming he can run to form after an absence.

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11/4 earlier when full members got this. Best Price now 5/2 in several places including Ladbrokes, betfred and PaddyPower

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Posted under horse racing tips

Seasons Results

We are entering the last month of the Flat season.  There is still plenty of racing left but we’ve broken the back of the year. In terms of the results I have updated them on the website for the season with every account bet and every selection there as well.

Account Bets

28 Bets – 10 Won – 3 Placed – 15 Lost – PROFIT  + 1854.25

Daily Selections

183 Bets -44 Won -12 Placed -127 Lost PROFIT +427.70

Think the account bets have done very well. Ignore the 3 that were placed with money back then 40% of account bets win and at big prices as well. That £1854 profit is very decent in 28 bets and the profit on turnover is excellent. In terms of the selections the £427 profit is based on £20 win or £10 each way so its bound to be less. Overall though they have not been too bad. There is Plenty of profit there in the 183 bets and it keeps things ticking over during the quiet spells. I would like to maybe get the account to the + £2500 point in the next month and also hit the £500 profit mark for the selections. Its been a good solid year with a Month to go and without any major problems along the way.

Posted under Main Content

This post was written by Maths on October 15, 2008

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Tanley Lands the Maximum

GREAT LEIGHS 7:20 – BRENTWOOD HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-50) 5f

5/1 Rann Na Cille, Taboor, 6/1 Tanley, 7/1 Linnet Park,
10/1 Cranworth Blaze, 12/1 Scots W?Hae, Tittle, 14/1
Dubai To Barnsley, Reigning Monarch, 25/1 Young Ivanhoe.

* This is a 5f sprint handicap for 0-50 rated horses
* September and October have had 154 similar races
* This may be the first race I have written up at this track
* Felt it was worth a look in this race
* I am against REIGNING MONARCH
* He has never run at 5f before
* He has also had only 1 run since June
* SCOTS W?HAE is opposed as well
* Male horses that come from 3yo handicaps are weak
* With under 9 runs that season they had a 0-72 record
* SCOTS W’HAE fails that and other factors worry me
* He has had just 1 run since April
* He has never run at 5f before
* He is also coming from a 3yo handicap with 42 days off
* Horses that did that absent over a month were weak
* None of them came from a 6f race
* I want to avoid both Maiden runners as they are weak
* Horses that came from maidens were 2-96 in 154 races
* Those that had 4 or more career starts were 0-79
* CRANWORTH BLAZE is a filly from a maiden after 14 runs
* TITTLE is a filly from a maiden with 7 runs
* LINNET PARK is a 3 year old filly absent 42 days
* 3 year old fillies absent over a month won 5 of the 154 races
* None were claimer ridden as she is (0-37)
* None had 13 or more runs (0-33) as she has
* She also has to come from a 3yo handicap and a 6f handicap
* CHARLOTTE GREY is an exposed filly down from 7f
* I can find only 1 winner like that in 154 races
* She had a very recent run and CHARLOTTE GREY has 26 days off
* CHARLOTTE GREY is also drawn in stall 11
* Great Leighs has had 21 races at this trip so far
* Horses drawn 10 or more are (so far) 0-32 in all 5f races here
* That puts me off CHARLOTTE GREY
* Worries me TABOOR is a 10 year old absent 35 days
* There has been 384 low grade handicaps at 5f and 6f
* Horses aged 9 or more – absent a month or more were 0-52
* I extended the search and found the following
* Since 1993 between July and December we have 1442 races
* Thats 1442 races at 5f and 6f in Class 5-6-7 anywhere
* Horses aged 9 or more absent a month or more were 0-156
* I have to question whether TABOOR will be fit enough
* CARMINE ROCK is a 3yo filly beaten 17 lengths last time
* Looked at 3yo fillies that were beaten 10 + lengths last time
* With under 13 runs (she has 7 runs) they were 1-86
* With under 9 runs that season they were 1-108
* When coming from Class 5-6-7 as she does they were 0-107
* With 9st 9lbs or less they were 0-126
* CARMINE ROCK fails all those trends
* She is also drawn 12 which is the worst draw
* YOUNG IVANHOE was beaten 14 + lengths in a 3yo handicap
* Horses that lost by 10+lengths in low grade 3yo handicaps were 0-61
* YOUNG IVANHOE also has to drop down from 7f
* I looked at 3 year olds that came from 5f handicaps
* When they lost by 10 + lengths last time out they were poor
* With 4 or more career runs they were 1-132
* DUBAI TO BARNSLEY has that against him
* RANN NA CILLE is a filly absent 35 days
* Fillies absent a month or more coming from 5f races were 4-143
* All 42 aged 4 like RANN NA CILLE lost
* Her absence as an exposed filly would concern me
* There is one horse that stands out a mile statistically
* T A N L E Y should win this race in my view
* I have what I believe to be good arguments against every horse
* I rate TANLEY as having by far the strongest profile
* Horses that were Placed in a 3yo handicap within 2 weeks were 5-17
* That improves when you take out unfit and unfancied ones
* Not worried he has a 0-18 career record – so had several others
* Happy to overlook his draw in stall 10
* This is a 0-50 and he was beaten in a 0-66 last time out in a photo
* He was only beaten by a Marcus Tregoning horse last time
* TANLEY is a very confident bet

Posted under horse racing tips

Anglicisme Keeps Up The Strong Form

Saturdays only bet PACKERS HILL WON 5/1
 
Friday’s only bet LOUPHOLE WON 7/2
 
Followed on with Todays only bet
 
 
ANGLICISME won 8/1 into 5/1
 
 

TOWCESTER 2:30 – GG.COM SELLING HURDLE (CLASS 5) (4-7yo) 2m3f110y2/1 Watching Football, 11/2 Anglicisme, Bethanys Boy, 6/1 Soviet Sceptre,
8/1 Malakiya, 10/1 Tamreen, 14/1 Dansilver, Dr Dream, 16/1 Ruling Reef,
20/1 Pips Assertive Way, 33/1 Call Me Myrtle, 50/1 Golden Streak, Hum,
J?Adore, Necker, 100/1 Killer Jim.

* This is a selling hurdle over 2m 3.5f
* About half the field are unfancied outsiders
* I just wonder if WATCHING FOOTBALL is weak
* September and October have had 130 selling hurdles
* Thats 130 of these races at Any trip in these 2 months
* I looked at 130 races for 4 year olds like him
* Those coming from Novice or Maiden hurdles were 4-158
* Since 1997 these horses had a 0-93 record
* When they had under 5 career starts they were 0-123
* When they ran within 10 weeks they were 0-114

That suggests to me WATCHING FOOTBALL has problems. He is after
all a lightly raced 4 year old that has had just 3 runs and David Pipe has
seen fit to drop him into sellers after such a short time with a Tongue Strap
and Blinkers. We know that inexperienced 4 year olds that come from non
handicaps are weak. All 93 that tried in the last 11 years lost. All 123 that
had under 5 runs as he had lost and the very few 4 year olds that did win
did it well over a decade ago – and did so with far more experience than he
has and did it with long absences so I am taking on WATCHING FOOTBALL.

DR DREAM is badly weighted today and has penalties and an absence and I
feel this will be beyond him. I am also opposing all the outsiders and unfancied
runners none of whom I can see a clear cut case for.

* We have 32 selling hurdles in September and October between 19f and 22f
* Horses that came from Novice or Maiden Hurdles were 0-56
* WATCHING FOOTBALL fails that and has been dealt with
* BETHANYS BOY also fails that and he isnt my choice in this race
* DANSILVER has a very unsafe profile as a 4yo coming from a chase
* I dont fancy TAMREEN
* Gary Moore sold him for £1400 last November to R Price
* He ran him once and sold him again
* He is now at a stable that have never had a winner before
* The trainer is 0-16 so far in his first season

SHORTLIST

ANGLICISME – SOVIET SCEPTRE – MALAKIYA

* Not easy to split these three horses
* SOVIET SCEPTRE is ok statistically
* I would be a bit worried he wasnt better on a sharp track
* I wouldnt want it too testing for him either
* MALAKIYA is hard to read
* I think hes better off now hurdling and with a recent run
* He doesnt offer much in the way of resolution though
* ANGLICISME is very strong statistically
* He comes from a 2m 4f claiming hurdle at Fontwell
* Last years winner also came from the same race
* Micky Pearce was well beaten in that last year and won this

SELECTION  – ANGLICISME Each Way

 

Posted under horse racing tips