Hennessy Gold Cup

My Hennessy conclusion is that the bet is both a win bet on ALBERTAS RUN and a saver on BIG BUCKS but like  many I’m worried about the ground for ALBERTAS RUN. Midweek I was confident he would win this race but many little things have conspired against him and my confidence has drained a little away from him. I have backed him at a shorter price than he is now and the potential for me to have the race wrong now is a strong possibility.

I hope he wins but I cant pretend I am as bullish as I was 48 hours ago.

This is certainly not Account Bet strength but I hope you enjoy the analysis and find it an aid if trying to unravel the Hennessey yourself.
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NEWBURY 2:40

HENNESSY GOLD CUP CHASE GRADE 3  (4yo+) 3m2f110y

Racing Post Forecast Prices
6/1 Air Force One,  Big Buck´s, 15/2 Island Flyer, 8/1 Albertas Run, 11/1 Oedipe, 14/1 Slim Pickings, 16/1 Dear Villez,  High Chimes,  Royal County Star, 20/1 Snoopy Loopy,  Verasi, 25/1 Knowhere, 50/1 Always Waining,  Madison Du Berlais,  Monkerhostin,  My Will.

For Current Live Odds Click Here

SELECTION- ALBERTAS RUN

SAVER – BIG BUCKS

This race strongly favours lightly raced, progressive second-season chasers.  If  you look at the last 15 years of the Hennessy Gold Cup it has been dominated by horses that had between 6 and 20 races before. We haven’t had a winner that had under 5 starts. On the other end of the scale Horses that had More than 20 Career races had a disastrous 0-59 record in this race. All 59 got beaten and not that Many were Placed. You don’t want a seasoned handicapper who has limited potential and whose form is clearly an open book and who has had ample time to be accurately assessed by the Handicapper. These types end up giving weight to horses that have far more scope and Improvement and horses that are very well handicapped. The following tables show how many runs the recent past winners have had and how many handicap runs they have had as well.

* Horses with 6-20 career starts dominate the Hennessy

10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16

* Horses with Under 8 runs in Handicaps dominate the Hennessy

0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8

* Finishing 1st-2nd or 3rd last time is important

Recent form seems important. You must have been placed 1st 2nd or 3rd last time out. I have looked at every winner of this going back to 1987 and every one of those winners managed a 1-2-3 Placing last time out. Such is the test of this Class race that we should be ignoring anything that did not have the ability to place last time assuming they do not have the Class to win a Hennessy or the jumping prowess. Since 1987 there have been well over 100 Horses that failed to finish placed or better on their latest start. None of these 100 + runners won.

I don’t want VERASI. I do like the horse. I had him as a saver in last years Sun Alliance at 25/1 so its nothing personal. You can argue that he is over exposed for a race like this but he has only had 6 chase starts so that’s harsh. He fails the statistic that demands a 1-2-3 finish last time out but the one factor I really do not forgive him for is his flat form. This is a Flat bred horse that started his career on the flat. You can go back decades and you wont find any Hennessy winner starting his career on the flat in England.

ROYAL COUNTY STAR  looks all wrong. We haven’t had a winner warm up over hurdles. The run he had wasn’t good enough anyway. He did not achieve enough last time. His handicap mark looks stiff and he doesn’t have half the improvement of most of these.

I don’t want KNOWWHERE with top weight. That’s a tall order. The two recent Top weight winners Denman and Trablogan were both Sun Alliance winners and KNOWWHERE looks exposed.  He was well beaten in last years race with 10lbs less weight. He has a career high mark and having ran in 12 handicap chase’s is not the profile of a Hennessy winner.

SNOOPY LOOPY is also exposed and has had far more handicap runs than ideal. He was a huge price for this race before he won last week in Kauto Star’s race at 33/1. There must be a huge doubt he can reproduce his best just 7 days later. I have to take him on.

SLIM PICKINGS isn’t for me. I don’t like the fact he comes from a 2 mile race which is not a good thing or a successful thing in this race. I think he looks exposed. Is a horse that has lost his last 14 races likely to win a Hennessy. I don’t think so.

HIGH CHIMES is a seasonal debutant. Several recent winners were making their debuts that season but they were younger. HIGH CHIMES is a 9 year old. If you look at the last 17 Hennessy’s and look at seasonal debutants aged 8 or more you find a 0-42 record. That’s a worry for him. So to is his handicap mark as he won the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last March off 127 and has to run from 141 today. There hasn’t been a similar winner of the Hennessy in recent memory so I would not see HIGH CHIMES as my selection in this years race.

DEAR VILLEZ can’t be discounted but he isn’t for me. He won well last time in Ireland and passes most trends in this race. He is clearly Paul Nicholls’s second string. I wonder if he has the class. After all go back to last years Cheltenham festival.  DEAR VILLEZ ran and fell in the Jewson Novice Handicap. Compare that with ALBERTAS RUN and AIR FORCE ONE and others that were running in the Grade 1 Sun Alliance Chase and only have to concede a couple of lbs to him. I just don’t see him as good enough.

I don’t want to go with OEDIPE. He is a 6yo seasonal debutant. I haven’t got a big problem with that at all as State of Play (2006) was one. However if you look at the seasonal debutants that have won this race – they had all ran in better class than he has. They were all more experienced. They all ran far better than he did last time and none of them stepped up as far in trip. OEDIPE is a notorious poor work horse so he is has hardly been galloping the house down. He is also a French Bred and there hasn’t been many of those win the race. I think he is out of his depth and I worry his trainer says he is a “hard horse to get fit”.

ISLAND FLYER

One the face of it this horse has a strong profile and comes from a decent trial race and its easy to understand why there has been lots of ante post money for him this week. That said the value has probably gone now. The one trends worry I have with him is his class. ISLAND FLYER  is rated 132 and that would make him the lowest rated winner in at least 20 years. Every winner since the 1980′s was rated 135 or more and its just in the back of my mind that off bottom weight in the last two furlongs he could just be fighting to get home in this class on soft ground and his low rating worries me. After all 9 months ago as he was winning a cheap novice chase others were running and winning Sun Alliances and his flaw could be whether he has the class to win.

AIR FORCE ONE

This horse must have a great chance. Statistically he is not unlike One Man who won this in 1994 and both came from the Sun Alliance and AIR FORCE ONE achieved more in that race and had more experience. Both were 6 year olds with 1 handicap run and one run that season. One Man (1994) won with 10st though and AIR FORCE ONE has a much bigger weight to carry. Recent Hennessy’s have shown high weights are fine in this race and AIR FORCE ONE has a strong overall profile. There are two issues to consider. One may be the general theory that he may be best on right handed tracks. The other is whether he wants soft ground. In terms of the Left Handed Track I don’t think there is enough evidence to suggest that. He has ran 5 times on left handed tracks. Even if you ignore his win at Fontwell when odds on in a Figure 8 track you cant draw any conclusions. His other races were 2-5-5-6 on left handed tracks. One of the times he was 50/1. Another was his chasing debut pitched into a Grade 2 chase. He was well beaten in the Sun Alliance at Cheltenham but his 2nd was also there in the Spa Hurdle at the festival and there is nothing wrong with that. The track wouldn’t be a major concern for me as the evidence is not compelling. In terms of the ground you would worry if it was soft. His connections have given excuses before for defeats blaming soft and dead ground. There has to be a slight stamina doubt on the ground as well so he isn’t bomb proof. I also don’t like the fact he has run on the Flat before albeit in Germany as very few Hennessy winners started racing on the flat. I see him and BIG BUCKS as the main contenders for the “saver” but much as I greatly respect  his chance I prefer others marginally.

BIG BUCKS

Initially I felt that the favourite was worth opposing as a 5 year old but I would not be too dogmatic about that now. I have had a big rethink about 5 year olds as they have won similar other races at this time of year. BIG BUCKS is a 5 year old. The Hennessy was first run in 1957 and the 51 renewals of the race have never thrown  up a 5 year old winner. That must be considered a  problem for BIG BUCKS but not many have tried – just 4 in the last two decades and hardly any of the 5 year olds that have run have been fancied and they have had a 3rd with Eudipe in 1997. I couldn’t make him a negative on the back of a statistic that’s admittedly worrying but more importantly not proven. I think trip and ground demand he is a saver

SELECTION

ALBERTAS RUN

I really fancy this horse. He is trying to be the 3rd Sun Alliance Chase winner to win this race in the last 4 seasons after Denman and Trablogan did the double. On his profile he is Similar to Kings Road the 2000 winner in that they both ran in the Cheltenham Bumper early in their career and then the Sun Alliance. He is an even closer type to 2005 winner Trablogan who was also owned by Trevor Hemmings as ALBERTAS RUN is. Trablogan (2005) also ran in the Champion Bumper and won the Sun Alliance as well and ALBERTAS RUN attempts to do the same. He is the right age and a second season chaser. Statistically the only trend he fails was that he wasn’t 1-2-3 last time out. He was 4th of 4 on his seasonal debut but I can forgive him that. He probably was not trained for that race. The trip was too short and he met a top class horse. He was clearly unfit and that was the same Carlisle chase that his trainer ran Exotic Dancer a couple of years ago and he flopped that running a lifeless race before winning the Paddy Power Gold cup next time out. ALBERTAS run holds two wins over Air Force One and has a touch of class as a Sun Alliance Chase winner. His owner will want to win this race again and I think ALBERTAS RUN is good value to win the race. His chance will come down to the ground. If its not too soft he will win for me and if it is it lets in Big Bucks the saver.

Regards

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

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Posted under Major Horse Races

The Good Run Continues

1 Account Bet

Kempton 7.50

HIGHLAND RIVER 3/1

£100 Win

3/1 Ladbrokes – Boyles -betfred-BlueSq- Paddy P
3/1 Skybet -Stan J – 888sport- Betdirect

 

CELTIC CONTRACTORS NURSERY (DIV II) (CLASS 6) (2yo,0-65) 1m

5/1 Highland River, 11/2 Artesium, Hawkspring, 7/1 Swiss Art, 8/1 Lujeanie, 9/1 Amazing Blue Sky, Impressionist Art, 16/1 Imperial Skylight, 20/1 Daily Planet, Merry May, Transfered.

* This is a Nursery race over a Mile
* There has been 55 of these races in November and December
* I want to oppose horses that come from 6f races
* In 55 races these horses have a 1-101 record
* At anytime of year there has been 143 nurseries at 8f
* Thats 143 races any time of year in class 6 and class 5
* Horses that came from 6f Nurseries were just 1-121
* That sole winner was Arcalis in 2002 at Pontefract
* He later won from a 30lbs higher mark and won a Grade 1 hurdle
* ARTESIUM is rejected as he comes from a 6f nursery
* LUJEANIE is rejected as he comes from a 6f nursery
* IMPERIAL SkyLIGHT is rejected coming from a 6f race
* He comes from a 6f claimer and no horse did that and won an 8f nursery
* MERRY MAY is rejected as a filly from a 6f race
* In 143 races at all times of year fillies doing this were 1-119
* HAWKSPRING comes from a 2yo selling race
* In 143 races only 6 horses came from sellers to win
* Horses that won a seller were 0-45 when running in these races
* With under 4 career starts these horses were 0-34
* HAWKSPRING has only had 2 career starts
* He will appeal to many and is well entered up this week
* I feel HAWKSPRING has a poor profile
* In the 55 races horses from 8f with under 4 runs were 1-57
* TRANSFERRED doesnt have a great profile either
* She is a filly absent 80 days
* She is also a filly that comes from a seller with 3 runs
* DAILY PLANET has just lost by 10.5 lengths over 7f
* In 143 races all year round I looked for similar types
* Horses that lost by Only 6 + lengths over 7f or shorter
* These horses were 1-113 when having 7 or more runs
* In 55 similar nurseries at this time of year
* Horses beaten 6 + lengths in Nurseries over 7f or shorter were 1-94
* DAILY PLANET fails that and looks outclassed
* IMPRESSIONIST ART is a filly with 3 runs and 80 days off
* Fillies absent 7 weeks or more won just 2 of the 143 races
* None had her weight or came from conditions races
* Fillies with under 4 runs struggled in 143 races all year round
* Only 1 managed to win with 9st 3lbs or more
* She was well beaten last time and has a poor profile
* AMAZING BLUE Sky comes from a 7f maiden after 3 runs
* He also has an unpleasant 59 day absence to overcome
* I have found 1 winner with a similar profile to him
* Overall he looks to hold no more than a small chance
* SWISS ART has a reasonable profile if he stays
* I dont have a problem with him
* HIGHLAND RIVER has a superb profile
* Horses that were 2nd in recent 8f nurseries were strong
* With 5 runs as he has they had a 2-4 record
* HIGHLAND RIVER was handicapped after 3 “quiet runs”
* His 4th start was a pretty hard task
* He was dropped from an 8f maiden to a 6f Nursery
* He ran a very creditable 2nd in a 0-60 nursery that day
* Last time out he ran in an 8f Nursery
* He had a horrible profile that day as he came from a 6f race
* All the problems with 6f runners are described above
* HIGHLAND RIVER still managed an excellent 2nd that day
* That was a competetive 14 runner race betting 9/2 the field
* I think he is light years ahead of these on his profile
* HIGHLAND RIVER is a Confident Bet

Posted under horse racing tips

Making Good Progress

KEMPTON 12.30

TAKE A BREAK/EUROPEAN BREEDERS’ FUND
“NATIONAL HUNT” NOVICES’ HURDLE (QUALIFIER)
(CLASS 4) (4-6yo) 2m

4/1 Lord Ragnar, 9/2 Somersby, 13/2 Gershwin, 7/1 In Vino,
8/1 Seefin Mountain, 12/1 Clova Island, Firedog, 14/1 Master Charm, 16/1 Ruby Isabel, 20/1 High Carol, Rapid Return, 25/1 Mr Presley, 33/1 Rothres, Smart N Sharp, Ushiro Emery, 50/1 Junior Jimble, 100/1 Cool Contender.

SELECTION – SOMERSBY 3/1

* This is a 2m Novice Hurdle for horses aged 4-5-6
* There has been 112 of these races run in November-December
* There has been 497 similar races for all aged horses
* I want to oppose LORD RAGMAR and FIREDOG in this race
* Both come from a Bumper – and it was this season
* 13 of the 497 winners came from a recent bumper
* However LORD RAGMAR was beaten 20 lengths in that bumper
* FIREDOG was beaten 40 lengths in that bumper
* I looked at horses that had ran recently in bumpers
* Horses that did it beaten 8 lengths or more were 0-220
* Those that were not 1-2-3-4-5 last time out were 0-170
* Horses well beaten in bumpers are awful if having run recently
* FIREDOG-LORD RAGMAR fails the same statistic
* They both look very opposable
* IN VINO was entitled to hate his seasonal debut
* That was on heavy ground and he had no hurdling form
* The issue with him is did he run well enough last time to consider
* He had excuses – but was still beaten 27 lengths
* Not many of the 497 winners had similar profiles
* In 497 races I looked at 4 year olds that had 1 run that year
* Looked at those beaten 16 + lengths in these races as IN VINO was
* The record was 10-531 a very poor 1.88% strike rate
* When these 4 year olds had more than 1 run it became 2-184
* Those like IN VINO with 2-3 career starts were 0-121
* That suggests to me IN VINO has too much to do
* MASTER CHARM fails the same angles and is also opposed
* I dont think GERSHWIN did enough last time out
* I would shortlist SEEFIN MOUNTAIN
* He comes from a Graded Bumper after 2 runs
* There were 4 horses with his profile and they were W 4th 4th Lost
* It has been done and Graded Bumper form is respected
* I would have to strongly prefer SOMERSBY

SELECTION – SOMERSBY 3/1

* SOMERSBY comes from a maiden hurdle this year
* Several 4 year olds did that in similar races
* Those like SOMERSBY that were 1-2-3-4 last time out were strong
* His run this year must give him a very strong chance
* He is reported as one of Henrietta Knights best prospects
* When he ran the stable were out of form and struggling
* They have now had their 1st winner this year
* He was bound to have badly needed that opening run 3 weeks ago

Posted under Main Content

Latest Account Bets

Three Account Bets so far this season.

WON 3-1

SECOND 6-1

WON 2-1

The latest Account Bet winning Saturday very easily.
LINGFIELD 12.00

11/4 River Thames, 9/2 Muktasb, 7/1 Afton View, Welcome Approach, 10/1 Our Fugitive, Rightcar Lewis, 12/1 Shot To Fame, 14/1 Bronte´s Hope, Now You See Me, 20/1 Gambling Jack, Loyal Royal, 25/1 Blue Zenith.

SELECTION – RIVER THAMES

In this 6f handicap I dont see RIVER THAMES being beaten. I think he has worked himself into a race where he is simply much better class than the horses that occupy this sort of race. I would have to rule out several. RIGHTCARD LEWIS is out as a filly from 5f. BLUE ZENITH is out from a seller. Several had questionable fitness like NOW YOU SEE ME, GAMBLING JACK and LOYAL ROYAL. I want to oppose the Marcus Tregonnning horse BRONTE’S HOPE an inexperienced filly down in trip. I dont think SHOT TO FAME will show his best form here over 6f and feel he will be caught out. WELCOME APROACH isnt a horse that likes the hustle and bustle and here drawn in the middle I dont see him running his best over this diatance. If I had done a shortlist it may have read like Muktasb – River Thames -Afton View. However I cant do one as I think it should have just 1 horse on it. RIVER THAMES looks a really good bet to me. Hurt badly by the draw at Doncaster last time over 7f he ran far better than it looks. He has back class that most of these would die for. He only has to give MUKTASB a pound in weight yet RIVER THAMES comes from two 0-84 class races and MUKTASB comes here beaten in 0-58 races. MUKTASB has no back class at all. The only time he has ran in class 4 handicaps before he was an outsider and well beaten. By contrast RIVER THAMES has won two and ran in far better grade. In his 34 race career RIVER THAMES has never been in class 6 before. Yes he is quirky but he is dropping into a 0-60 race and he has to be better class than that.

Posted under Main Content

saturday horse racing tip

A small snippet from my main service at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk is below

Saturday November 15th

No Account Bet

One Selection Today

Cheltenham 2.00

JOE LIVELY

Each Way 6/1
blog comment: was 6/1 earlier in the day when advised to full members

best bookmaker price now 5/1in many places eg PaddyPower, Ladbrokes, betdirect, bet365

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CHELTENHAM 2:00

SERVO SERVICES HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3 (4yo+) 3m3f110y

7/2 Opera Mundi, 5/1 Halcon Genelardais, 6/1 Joe Lively, 13/2 Parsons Legacy, 8/1 Beat The Boys,  Karanja, 10/1 Comply Or Die, 12/1 Simon, 14/1 Flintoff, 16/1 Dom D´Orgeval, 100/1 Sweet Diversion.

SELECTION – JOE LIVELY Each Way

This is a complicated long distance Handicap Chase over 3m 3f. Its pretty hard to read as you do not know which horses are about to have prep races like the Welsh National and don’t want penalties or weight rises. I can not have KARANJA with only 2 chase runs and he looks inexperienced as does DOM D’OGEVAL with just 6 runs. I
dont want SWEET DIVERSION as she is out of the weights. This race has never gone to a horse from a Novice Chase so BEAT THE BOYS has to go. COMPLY OR DIE the Grand National winner pulled up in this race last year with far less weight and I would imagine that winning the National and the 15lbs rise that cost him will stop him winning and
many National winners struggle to win in their next season. I can see why PARSONS LEGACY is favourite after winning well on his seasonal debut. However you can argue he is better on faster ground and that he is best fresh and a career high mark today will take some overcoming. The
2007 winner came from the Scottish Grand National just as FLINTOFF, OPERA MUNDI and HALCON GENELARDAIS all do. I dont want HALCON GENELARDAIS as he is having his first run of the year and has topweight. This could be a prep run for the Welsh National. He is on a career high mark. The only seasonal debutant that defied a big weight in this race was in 1999 (Hanakham) and he only won in a 5 runner race and was a Sun Alliance Chase winner and HALCON GENELARDAIS wouldnt be my choice today. FLINTOFF looks weak in the market and may need his seasnal debut this year.  OPERA MUNDI has big chances and has to be shortlisted. JOE LIVELY has a great chance after a strong
seasonal debut run. So to does SIMON who was 5th in this race last year. I opposed SIMON last year as he is a small horse and I wasnt convinced he would get round. He did though and came 5th on ground that was too fast for him. This year he has better ground. He also has 10lbs less weight. Whilst there is always the chance SIMON smacks one of these fences he has ran very well here in his 3 Cheltenham stats and he isnt out of this. If I was shortlisting in this race I would shortlist the following 3 horses

JOE LIVELY – OPERA MUNDI – SIMON

I had strong reasons why OPERA MUNDI lost his last two races last season and dnt worry about those runs and I do like the fact that 6 year olds have a good record in the race. Wouldnt surprise me if he won but I would have to question his stamina over 27.5 furlongs. He is a french bred and his sire has not sired a 3m + winner yet and he has not proven his stamina yet. With SIMON lacking a run this year I do think the best bet in this race has to be JOE LIVELY each way.

Posted under horse racing tips