BOYLESPORTS INTERNATIONAL HURDLE GRADE

Saturday December 20th

No Account Bet

No Selections

Decided to resist a bet today on either account. If I had one it would be simply be because it was a Saturday and not for the right reasons. Its one of those Saturday’s where the racing is high class and fascinating to watch with some top quality horses running but its so competetive that strong bets dont look obvious. I have nothing on the sand today so the message revolves around 8 races I like. I have covered most of the big races today and as a message goes its not a bad one aside from one that doesnt throw up a serious bet on the day. Feel a little bit embarrased and dissapointed not to find something strong today but I dont want to abandon a principle in throwing any horse at you just because its a saturday and pretending I like it more than I do. I think its a day for small stakes through the message from start to finish or a day to possibly throw a few horses in an each way multiple bet. Stronger days will come soon enough. Leaving this one for interest only bettingIf stuck for inspiration of your own today see below.

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ASCOT 1.40 BoyleSports INTERNATIONAL HURDLE GRADE 2 (4yo+) 2m

11/10 Binocular, 7/2 Crack Away Jack, 11/2 Chomba Womba, 11/2 Katchit, 12/1 Celestial Halo.

SELECTION – KATCHIT Best Current Price 7/1 Coral

KATCHIT can win this race. This is a Quality 2m hurdle with some class hurdlers including Champion Hurdler KATCHITand several pretenders to his crown. This is rescheduled from last weeks abandoned Cheltenham meeting. KATCHIT was my choice last weeks race and is today. I dont like the horse as he has never done me any favours and I would rather he hadnt have won the Champion Hurdle last year. I dont think he will in 2009 either but surely he has to be the bet here. We know that this race is not a good race for 4 year olds. Not saying they cant win but they do score badly. Is it so unreasonable to assume KATCHIT must beat these pretenders. He is the Champion Hurdler. Wouldyou not expect him to beat CELESTIAL HERO a 4 year old whohas never faced an older horse before and is having his first run of the season. Can he not give 4lbs and 2lbs to the 4 year olds in the race. When we get to March we will be discussing the bad record of 5 year olds in the Champion Hurdle. KATCHIT overcame that and both BINOCULAR and CRACK AWAY JACK will face the same problems next March. Surely you would rather bet the horse that overcame a very hard statistic that lasted decades over two 4 year olds and a Mare in Chomba Womba. As for this theory that KATCHIT had a better chance at Cheltenham – That may be true but I think thats got into peoples minds as they have seen him run at Cheltenham so many times before. It is also an assumption that will add 2 points to his price. His record right handed is perfectly fine and he has had two warm up runs to gain full fitness. I think the ground beat him at Kempton forst time out and he was givinglumps of weight away last time. His 3rd run of the year – a smaller field and back at just about level weights we may be saying after the race that KATCHIT was far too big a price for a champion hurdle winner running against 4 year olds and mares at these weights.

Posted under horse racing tips

Southwell Racing

Saturday December 13th

No Bets Today

We have lost Cheltenham after an unscheduled inspection
this morning and thats robbed the message of several good
previews and possible bets. Very dissapointing as it was
a mouth watering card. As Lingfield has also been lost as
well there really has not been much I could offer today so
I am afraid its a quiet Saturday looking at a handful of the Southwell
races and no advised bets. The weather has won today and turned the
day into a poor racing day.

If you need an interest today

SOUTHWELL 1.15

13/8 Savaronola, 5/2 Eureka Moment, 3/1 Colourful Move, 10/1 Piermarini, 14/1 Jayyid, 16/1 Monaadi, 100/1 Sweet Seville.

This is a 12f maiden for horses aged 3 and 4 and it forces a guess as so many of these are hard to beat.
I’d look to oppose the Curley Leisure horse SAVARONOLA.
He looks to have been over estimated like most of his connections runners.
I dont like the fact he has been hurdling. I think there is a stamina doubt.
His sire has never bred a 12f winner yet and a long absence doesnt help.
I dont want a horse like COLOURFUL MOVE as he was sold for just £800 recently and that gives
volumes away about both his soundness and ability.
The big priced  Monaadi and Sweet Seville look out of their depth .PIERMARINI is out having been hammered in a claiming race.

I could only bet EUREKA MOMENT or JAYYID who were 3rd and 4th in the same maiden last time.
EUREKA MOMENT would be my choice.

Best Current Odds 11/4 Ladbrokes, Tote , blue square

Posted under horse racing tips

GILES CROSS

Saturday December 6th

Just a small snippet from my main message today for the blog.
( main service at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk )

No Account Bet

Todays Selection

Chepstow 3.45

GILES CROSS – Each Way

We came into this week in brilliant form but it was about slowing down and getting used to the new Racing Post site. We have had only 3 selections this week as I have kept things pretty tight. One of these was a short priced winner. The two other selections were 10/1 (placed) and 20/1 (Lost) so we have neither made or lost any ground on the week. I am getting used to the new site now and I’m feeling better about it but I dont think I’m ready yet to start thinking about account bets so I will stay with selections today.

In terms of selections on the day it has been a very tight call. I had 5 options for selections today and whilst none looked like account bet strength
they all looked closely matched and as good as each other so there is a serious danger I have picked the wrong bets of several options today but I will list my best options now so you can see them

Wetherby 12.10 – Glenary 3/1 was a potential selection
Chepstow 1.35 – Arctic Shadow 8/1 with Elton 6/1 a saver
Great Leighs 3.30 – Beat The Bell each way 6/1
Chepstow 3.45 – Giles Cross 4/1 is an each way option
Great Leighs 4.00 – Port De La Ponch could beat the fav

In the end I went with GILES CROSS as the selection today. He is generally 4/1 and 9/2 with some independants and I like his chance but it is a day where several appeal but there isnt much between then and none stand out as outstanding hence no account bet.

Blog Comment
Prices above correct at time of send to clients proper.
Best early price now at time of blog posting
7/2 at centrebet, blue square, Tote

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CHEPSTOW 3.45

7/4 Gullible Gordon, 4/1 Mr Bennett, 5/1 Kayf Aramis, 7/1 Faneuil Hall, 8/1 Giles Cross, 12/1 C’Monthehammers, 20/1 Champage A Gogo, 20/1 Mr Bee Gee, 25/1 Atherstone Hill, 33/1 Irish Power, 33/1 Off The Shelf, 50/1 Society Night, 66/1 North Run.

The rest of Chepstow is just poor trend races and races that dont offer me much at all so I just think its best to leave the majority of races alone. The Maiden Hurdle at 3.45 may just be worth a second mention. The favourite GULLIBLE GORDON is impossible to judge having flopped at odds on last time but it would worry me and connections have said they are mystified why he ran so badly and I would just rather go each way on an alternative and I think there is one. Horses that ran just once – and once this season and placed in that race had a really strong record and I would argue that GILES CROSS who fits that pattern is one of the best profiles in the race and would be my danger to the favourite and the best each way bet in the race. He was 3rd on his debut and the runner up came out and won the Grade 2 hurdle at Sandown yesterday.

Best Wishes
Guy

Posted under horse racing tips