Horse Racing Tip For Newmarket

We have a reasonably busy Saturday on the full service with three different bets advised.
Here on the free horse betting blog we will look at just one of them.

Newmarket 5.05

COMPTON’S ELEVEN 6/1 Win Bet
VIOLENT VELOCITY 4/1 Saver

I thought hard about making COMPTONS ELEVEN an account bet with VIOLENT VELOCITY as a saver.
He’s such a typical account bet for me down in class and also conceeding weight to inferior horses.
On Paper he smells like a great bet but the danger is he could now be a sour 8 year old grey mule that has forgotten how to win.
There are other well treated runners as well and I just feel he is a
little short of a full bet especially with the rain about.
In terns of strength he is a very strong selection as I’m also saving on the second best handicapped horse in the race.
Both these horses are so well treated I will be shocked if one doesnt win.
They are both worth a decent bet but just fall short of a maximum.

COMPTONS ELEVEN 7/1 LadbrokesHillss james -Skybet – Paddy Power

VIOLENT VELOCITY 11/2 bet365
VIOLENT VELOCITY 5/1 LadbrokesHills

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NEWMARKET 5.05

AGORA APPRENTICE HANDICAP(CLASS 5)(4yo+ 0-70) 7f

4/1 Another Try, 5/1 King’s Icon, 13/2 Convince, 13/2 Pretty Officer, 8/1 Tri Chara, 10/1 Bigfanofthat, 10/1 Cavalry Guard, 10/1 Violent Velocity, 12/1 Compton’s Eleven, 14/1 King Of The Moors, 16/1 Rough Rock, 25/1 Majestic Cheer, 33/1 Ramblin Bob.

SELECTION -COMPTON´S ELEVEN

SAVER – VIOLENT VELOCITY

This is a 7f Handicap For Apprentice riders. June and July have seen 64 handicaps like this.
There has been 578 similar races for all types of jockeys and not just Apprentices. I used both trends.

* KINGS ICON has 1 run this year
* In 64 Apprentice races horses doing that were 0-42
* He also has a 65 day absence
* He looks potentially unfit for a semi exposed horse
* I looked at 578 similar 7f handicaps
* No horse as exposed as him won with 1 run and a break
* He is well handicapped and from a shrewd stable
* I would question his fitness though and he isnt for me
* RAMBLIN BOB lost by too far just 3 days ago
* TRI CHARA is hard to fancy
* He is exposed and comes from a 6f race
* No winners did that without a recent run and he’s been off 92 days
* He is also USA Bred and has all his best form on sand
* He may also struggle on the ground
* ROUGH ROCK will struggle to get home on the ground
* He also has the worst draw for me
* PRETTY OFFICER has spent her last races at 10f or more
* Its asking her a lot to drop from 10f to 7f
* No Filly did that in any of the 64 Apprentice races
* They scored very poorly in 578 other races
* There is far too much risk in her as a Filly not won before
* The ground could also hurt to PRETTY OFFICER is out
* MAJESTIC CHEER has to go from a 6f Seller
* CAVALRY GUARD was beaten too far in a 0-55 last time
* I dont see him as good enough
* Not without any form on the ground and winless on grass

POSSIBLES

* KING OF THE MOOR has reasonable claims
* He has a 39 day absence though
* Thats not easy for an exposed 6 year old
* He also has no recent form at 7f in years
* All his runs in the last two years were at 8f or more
* All his wins in the last two years were at 8f and more
* KING OF THE MOOR does have questions to answer
* ANOTHER TRY is inexperienced with 7 runs
* In 64 Apprentice Handicaps only 2 winners had under 9 runs
* I have found 1 similar winner to him
* Statistically I dont have a problem but there are issues
* His last win was when given a gift of a Draw
* I dont see his draw today as favourable at all
* He has to come from 6f to 7f and thats not straight forward
* He may also find the ground more testing than he faced before
* I respect him but he isnt for me
* BIGFANOFTHAT has a chance
* He still has to come up from 6f with just 1 run since April
* He certainly has a chance in this race
* CONVINCE is entitled to run well
* I dont have a major problem with him
* VIOLENT VELOCITY has a serious chance
* He is thrown in off his current mark
* The Absence doesnt worry me
* I have found several winners like him
* I rate him a good saver

COMPTON´S ELEVEN is very interesting. I remember making
him an account bet when he won the Grey Horse Handicap her
in 2007. Statistically he is fine. I think I have made a reasonable case against a lot of his rivals.
What interests me though is that he could have a Class advantage.
COMPTON´S ELEVEN is rated 69 and he has to win what is only a 0-64 handicap.
He has come down about 14lbs in the weights within the last year.
He has been running himself fitter and fitter all year as he comes down the
handicap and today is a Career low mark.

* His last run was 6th at Warwick beaten 7 lengths
* That was in a 0-83 Handicap much better than this race
* The Lowest rated horse he faced that day was 70
* The Highest rated horse he faces today is 64
* He was also badly drawn at Warwick in stall 11
* He was last into the turn and finished away from the track bias
* 6th place wasnt bad and the 4th and 5th came out and won since
* His previous race at Folkestone was in a better class 0-78 handicap
* His 4th that day doesnt suggest he couldnt win this 0-64
* He stays – He has won with ground on the soft side
* Most of his wins come on a straight track as well

SELECTION -COMPTON´S ELEVEN

SAVER – VIOLENT VELOCITY

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Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Maths on June 27, 2009

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Newmarket Horse Racing Tip

NEWMARKET 3.15

7/4 Cosmopolitan, 5/1 Lyceana, 13/2 Something Perfect,
7/1 15/2 Fanditha, 12/1 Astrodonna, 12/1 Penzena.

SELECTION – COSMOPOLITAN

This is a 8f Fillies Handicap for 0-84 rated horses and there’s been 11 renewals of this race and 68 elsewhere. Horses with 3 runs struggle. I wouldn’t be interested in PENZENA with 3 runs LYCENA is a seasonal debutant. I do not like that profile. I’ve found 3 that won first time out much as none dropped in trip as she does. I would not see her as a selection. ASTRODONNA has a poor profile and none were like her in 68 races. I have no major problems with SOMETHING PERFECT but None like him won this race at Newmarket but did win other races at other tracks.
SOMETHING PERFECT looks competetive to me but a win on
her debut has left her hardly thrown in. FANDITHA has a chance as well but I could only bet one horse.

COSMOPOLITAN is a 4yo thats just won a maiden. There
were four runners that did that and 3 won. In this race there were 3 doing it and 2 of these won so COSMOPOLITAN looks a big positive. She gave 11lbs to 3 year olds from some big stables when winning a maiden over 3 lengths last time. That suggests to me she could outclass a 0-76 class field like this. She has a Group 1 entry but the fact she has 8lbs more than any other horse and only has a 0-76 class field to beat swings it for me.

SELECTION – COSMOPOLITAN
7/4 at Tote and Ladbrokes

Check other odds here http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2009-06-20/newmarket/15-15/betting/

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Maths on June 20, 2009

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Saturday Racing Tip For Lingfield

LINGFIELD 6.20

11/2 Bateleur, 8/1 Another Try, 8/1 Plumage, 10/1 Dualagi,
10/1 Mr Skipiton, 10/1 Sherjawy, 14/1 Charlie Delta, 14/1
Rhapsilian, 16/1 Hollow Jo, Keep Dancing, 20/1 Kingsgate
Castle,25/1 C’Mon You Irons, 25/1 Calypso Girl, 33/1 Ejeed, 33/1 Scruffy Skip.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-65 rated horses
* There has been 120 similar races in June

High Drawn horses have a massive advantage over this Course
and Distance. The last few handicaps here over this trip with 9 or more runners have seen the winning stalls drawn as follows. 10-10 , 7-9 , 9-9 , 9-9 , 13-13 , 12-14. I wouldnt entertain a low drawn horse. I would oppose KEEP DANCING – SHERJAWY C´MON YOU IRONS are all drawn in the bottom 4 stalls and KINGSGATE CASTLE is also badly drawn. There are several of these that dont look fit or ready to win. I’d argue this includes SCRUFFY SKIP and EJEED. HOLLOW JO is out with a long absence as an older horse. MR SKIPITON is out having a nasty absence and also a step up in trip. Whilst he has a good draw CHARLIE DELTA doesnt look ready to win. He’s exposed and has a big weight and has hasnt ran wellenough this year to think he can win without more runs. I am ruling out CALYPSO GIRL a filly from a 3yo handicap. You can give both DUALAGI and
RHAPSILIAN chances but no more than that and in an 18 runner race neither are well drawn in stalls 6 and 8 and I dont want a Mare from a bad draw. I feel there are 3 runners in this race.

PLUMAGE – BATELEUR – ANOTHER TRY

We backed PLUMAGE last night and she dissapointed but it
was a better race last night with far more improvers and she is very fit. It will be very annoying if she wins. I would also want to shortlist ANOTHER TRY. He has just won at Southwell and is a lightly raced horse. He won a poor race on sand and you wouldnt fancy the horses he beat in this race and he was 18/1 and has no form on Grass at all. He is lightly raced and well drawn though. Statistically he is only average and not many winners come from the sand in these races and he is a hard horse to judge. It depends on what he thinks of the grass. BATELEUR has the outstanding profile. Couldnt fault it at all and unless there is a deluge of rain tonight I think he’s the one.

SELECTION – BATELEUR Best Price 11/4 Corals

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Maths on June 13, 2009

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Epsom Derby

EPSOM 5.45

INVESTEC DERBY (GROUP 1) (3yo) 1m4f10y

11/4 Sea The Stars, 7/2 Fame And Glory, 4/1 Rip Van Winkle, 7/1 Gan Amhras, 8/1 Black Bear Island, 14/1 Masterofthehorse, 20/1 Age Of Aquarius, 20/1 Crowded House, 25/1 Kite Wood, 33/1 Golden Sword, 50/1 Montaff, 66/1 Debussy.

The Epsom Derby comes too soon in the year and doesnt
really offer great trends. Normally I would be against all
the horses from the 2000 Guineas but it is not a year to
do that with confidence as they are mob handed in today’s
race. I dont have a strong opinion. I have just listened to a lot of different opinions and read a lot about the race.When you have 6 Aidan O’Brien runners and the decision
by Johnny Murtagh a surprise to many you realise that
you cant know enough about the Irish horses to form a
confident view. Jamie Spencer was talking recently about
why he feels SEA THE STARS wont stay and why he sees
him as having too much speed and I consider that very
plausable and he isnt for me. FAME AND GLORY isnt
for me as he has been rejected leading to suspicions that
a horse that won over 10f as a juvenile may be too slow
to win the race. CROWDED HOUSE and KITE WOOD dont appeal well beaten in the Dante. There are too many doubts for me about RIP VAN WINKLE. The track may hurt him. He isnt sure to stay. I like GAN AMHRAS and BLACK BEAR ISLAND or at least feel they offer quite a good return for the risk. I think the best risk here is to try some forecasts. It will be pot luck. I am taking the view that SEA THE STARS will lose for a lack of stamina but will still go very close. I think he could easily finish second. I intend to have some Novely forecasts in this race all built around the prediction SEA THE STARS is going to go very close but lose out to stamina.

Two Suggested Forecasts

* Gan Amhras to beat Sea The Stars

* Black Bear Island to beat Sea The Stars

Posted under Major Horse Races