NEWMARKET 3.25

SPORTINGBET.COM E B F FILLIES´ STAKES
(HANDICAP)(CLASS 2)(3yo+ 0-100) 7f

100/30 Pyrrha, 7/2 Lassarina, 9/2 Adoring, 5/1 Victoria Sponge, 8/1 Volochkova, 10/1 Oceana Blue, 12/1 Carcinetto, 16/1 Shaws Diamond, 25/1 Vitoria.

There has not been many Fillies handicaps at this time of
year in this sort of grade so statistically we dont have great angles.
What few there have been all went to unexposed horses.
I see OCEANA BLUE and CARCINETTO as far
too exposed and vulnerable. I dont see VITORIA defying
a nasty absence either. ADORING has had just one career
run. She also has a 62 day absence and races on soft ground.
Having one run looks something to be worried about.
I’ve looked at every fillies handicap that has ever been run at
any distance in Class 3 and better.
Only one horse has won one of these races and that horse (Tartouche)
did it at a different trip and won a muddling false pace race before
going on to win Group races. ADORING is trying to do something no
other horse has done. Given that she also has an absence and hasnt
been on the ground before I’d want to oppose her second time out in
a 0-97 handicap. I didnt think VOLOCHKOVA would have the class.
She scraped home in a triple photo on a Class 5 race on the sand
that was only a 0-75 class race and she now takes a 3 grade rise
into a Class 2 contest and I suspect that will find her out.
LASSARINA has just one run this season and all similar races show
you are much better off with at least 3 runs that season.
She could well be underraced especially with a 98 day absence as well.
I respect the fact she drops from a Group race but shes inexperienced
and far from  certain to be fit. She has a large weight for a 3 year old.
The fact she won a Conditions race on her debut and then ran in two Group
Races shows she has class but its done nothing for her handicap mark
and a mark of 97 wont be easy to overcome with all her other issues like
her absence and inexperience and just the one run this year. She may
win but she isnt for me. SHAWS DIAMOND may find this
a bit too warm. PYRRHA is lightly raced and open to some
improvement. She had a legitimate excuse last time out at
Newmarket when badly drawn. She is tempting each way
around 4/1 but I have a couple of reservations. She has no
form on ground softer than good and isnt sure to want the
soft ground. I also worry she has just two runs this year
and could be at a fitness disadvantage. VICTORIA SPONGE
looks interesting. She looked progressive recently as she
easily won two handicaps but came unstuck last time. It
was no surprise as she was a 3 year old giving weight and
a penalty to older horses when having to drop in distance
which didnt suit her. VICTORIA SPONGE will appreciate
this return to 7f today. I would rather she came from a 7f
race but that doesnt worry me as others have far more to
worry about in terms of fitness and experience and ground.
I think VICTORIA SPONGE is a decent each way bet.

SELECTION – VICTORIA SPONGE Each Way 6/1 at bet365, coral, ladbrokes

Posted under horse racing tips

We could either have a bet today because its Saturday and
just risk one or we could wait for tomorrow as there will be a Sunday Message for full members . Bottom line is the ground’s bad everywhere and there are so many non runners that it carries too much risk.

I dont think I have made an outstanding case for any horse
being a strong bet and my best options are shorter than they were because of non runners. I havent previewed the 5.10pm at Ripon but I have spent some time on this race. The only horse I liked even remotely and the only horse I’d consider betting was CARDINAL 6/1 and his type have a great record in these races. He is the one horse I was considering making a selection but in a big field with a draw that could go either way and expecting more non runners from that race I dont want to make him a selection. I see him as my biggest bet today and as long as he stays around 6/1 or better I am betting him.

Dissapointed not to advise a bet on a Saturday but it happens only about 3-4 times a year and you will be aware of the rain and the conditions and why it may be best to wait for Sunday. If you want my strongest bet its CARDINAL at Ripon.

Posted under horse racing tips

I have a few what I deem stronger bets today but out of respect for clients who pay for my betting advice I must unfortunately refrain from putting them up here.

Still I have an interesting angle for at a race at Salisbury later with a couple of decent priced contenders.

SALISBURY 6.20

BATHWICK TYRES NOVICE AUCTION STAKES
(CLASS 5)(2yo) 6f

6/4 Raine’s Cross, 13/8 Dick Turpin, 8/1 Drift And Dream
12/1 Emma Dora, 12/1 Perfect Ch’I, 25/1 Pherousa
25/1 San Cassiano, 33/1 Fantastic Pick, 33/1 Weliketobouggie 66/1 Bush Master, 66/1 Chocolate Cookie.

This race is a 6f Novice Auction Contest. Salisbury has
12 renewals of this race. This is a race where Fillies have
dominated. They lead 9-3 in the 12 races and there has
been fewer Fillies run as well. They should really be 10-2
ahead as one year they had no chance of winning. I feel
a male horse can win but if they do you know they will
turn out to be pretty smart. Considering unraced horses
are 0-17 in this race lets take out the unraced males first
so SAN CASSIANO and WELIKETOBOUGGIE are out. I cant see a case for BUSH MASTER. No past winner dropped in trip and the male FANTASTIC PICK does not appeal. CHOCOLATE COOKIE doesnt appeal as a debutant and no filly was beaten more than 10 lengths last time so PHEROUSA has to go.

The issue is whether the 3 remaining fillies EMMA DORA – PERFECT CH’I
or DRIFT AND DREAM can beat the a male who has Group form in RAINE´S CROSS and a male that has won his only race in DICK TURPIN. Its much better to come from an Auction maiden so I will take out EMMA DORA. I respect the males but feel the Fillies are advantaged in a race like this. I plan to bet one and save on the other

SELECTION – DRIFT AND DREAM 10/1 bet365 s james betfred
SAVER – PERFECT CH’I 16/1 blue sq VC

best wishes
Guy

Posted under horse racing tips

Carlisle 9.35 – AMIR PASHA 14/1 Tote Win Bet
Carlisle 9.35 – UNAWATUNA (Saver 4/1) Bet365

In the last race at Carlisle we have an emigma of a race.
I have brilliant trends in the race and they are demanding I bet here but the best horse UNAWATUNA is weak statistically and throws up a real dilemma. UNAWATUNA is the best horse and should win
yet I cant find a similar horse win a similar race and convincing myself to commit to her is like convincing Osama Bn Laden to eat a Pork Chop.

With AMIR PASHA high on my list in the race I have decided to have a saver on UNAWATUNA and buy her out of the race. AMIR PASHA is the only other horse I could bet.

CARLISLE 9.35

CFM RADIO ESCALA LIVE HERE TONIGHT
MAIDEN HANDICAP(CLASS 6)(4yo+ 0-65) 2m1f52y

11/4 Beauchamp Wonder, 11/4 Saxona, 9/2 Unawatuna,
13/2 Trempari, 12/1 Amir Pasha, 12/1 Roisin’s Prince,
16/1 Dawn Wind, 20/1 Uptown Lad, Countrywide Sun,
25/1 Dance Sauvage, 33/1 Art Gallery, 33/1 Sea Cove.

* This is a 17f Handicap for 0-62 rated horses
* July has seen 127 similar races between 2m and 19f
* There has been 550 handicaps between 2m and 19f
* Thats 550 handicaps in Class 5 and 6 at Any time of year
* These are every low grade 2m + staying handicap in the season
* Look at Horses from Maidens in these races
* They won just 9 of the 550 races
* When they came from maidens over 13f or shorter they flopped
* These types had a 1-132 record
* That horse ( Three Eagles) doesnt really count anyway
* Between his maiden run he ran in a Novice Hurdle.
* BEAUCHAMP WONDER has to be avoided on that stat
* She is a Filly from a 10f maiden with just 3 runs
* TREMPARI has to go from a 12f maiden
* SAXONA has to go as a mare from a 12f maiden
* SEA COVE wont be fit as a 9yo mare with 2 runs this year
* She has a 0-26 career record and looks outclassed
* ART GALLERY has a 0-25 record and looks poor
* DANCE SAUVAGE hasnt won in 27 races
* He was beaten 69 lengths last time out
* He looks a very poor animal who shouldnt trouble the judge
* COUNTRYWIDE SUN has ran just twice since 2008
* Both runs were heavy defeats
* He doesnt look in good enough form
* UPTOWN LAD finished well beaten last time out
* Horses like him beaten 10 + lengths last time did win races
* Those aged 9 or more were just 1-81
* UPTOWN LAD is a 10 year old and best known as a chaser
* He looks an unlikely winner
* I cant see a case for DAWN WIND
* Not as a 4yo filly with a miserable record
* ROISIN´S PRINCE has ran twice at long trips
* He placed over 2 miles at Southwell in January
* That offers hope he will stay but its not conclusive
* His sire (Bold Fact) is 0-61 with all runners at 10f and more
* Thats a massive worry for as horse racing over 17f +
* The added worry is he is a small horse on a stiff track
* He has twice ran poorly over hurdles recently
* It does require a leap of faith to bet him over this far

SHORTLIST

AMIR PASHA
UNAWATUNA

* AMIR PASHA stared his 3yo career for W Swinburn
* He lost his first 6 races and went hurdling
* Since then he has twice come back to the flat
* At Musselburgh in April he was 3rd in a 0-70 handicap
* If he repeats that he could win
* He hasnt ran too badly since over hurdles
* I like that he is unexposed and in a very weak race
* AMIR PASHA has a chance here
* UNAWATUNA offers a real dilemma
* On the Positive side she has the best form in the race
* She stays all day and has achieved more in 7 runs than anything here
* She is lightly raced and has more improvement than anything
* She looks simply better than her awful rivals
* On the downside there are serious statistical worries
* She is a filly with just 1 run this year and a break of 57 days
* Fillies aged 4 with 1 run that year were 0-16 in the 127 races
* Few were fancied though but its a worry
* The lighter raced you are the more you can forgive
* UNAWATUNA offers a genuine dilemma in such a poor race

SELECTION – UNAWATUNA 14/1 Tote

SAVER – AMIR PASHA Bet365

Guy

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Posted under horse racing tips