STRATFORD 3.00

Alcester Selling Hurdle (CLASS 5) (4yo+)  2m6f110y

4/1 Tabaran, 11/2 Dusty Dane, 11/2 Heraldry, Irish Legend
6/1 Answer Me, 6/1 Attorney General, 9/1 Triple Bluff
16/1 Little Rort, 25/1 Eskimo Pie, 25/1 Little Blackbeetle
33/1 Brookfieldshector.

* This is a Selling hurdle over 2m 6.5f
* There has only been 20 similar races

Interesting little race. Only 20 similar races but all 20
winners ran within 10 weeks. HERALDRY has been
absent 122 days and that worries me for a 10yo with
just 2 runs this season. DUSTY DANE has been off
111 days. There were the odd chasers win like him
but the only one that was exposed had Grade 1 form
and he doesnt and that absence has to worry for an
exposed horse. ESKIMO PIE has been off 99 days
and as a horse aged 11 lightly raced this year he is
not for me. TRIPLE BLUFF has a long absence and
as an exposed Chaser I couldnt find a similar winner.
LITTLE BLACKBEETLE is too inexperienced for a
mare. ANSWER ME has just 2 runs this season. I
looked at horses like him from 2m 5f or shorter and
just two runs that year and found a poor 1-49 record.
LITTLE RORT is rated far lower than most and has a
horrible task at the weights and should be out of his
depth. IRISH LEGEND certainly has the ability but I
do have some issues with him. He comes here from a
Chase and well exposed and these horses have not
been winning these races. You have to wonder if he
is in form. He has pulled up twice in a row and his
last run was only 3 weeks ago. TABARAN has a
pretty solid profile with a recent race and although
he has limitations he should run his race which is
something not all of these can say.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

He is exposed and only 3 Exposed horses won in the
20 races. However they all had Grade 1 form as he does
as well. Exposed horses with Past Grade 1 form in these
selling races had a 3-4 record and all 3 winners were 10
and 11 year olds as he is.

* Horses with Grade 1 form before
* Running within 7 weeks
* Aged 9 or more
* Having run this season
* 6 horses had that profile in 20 races
* They finished W W W W W 8
* The only loser was an outsider
* Exposed 11 year olds with this profile were 2-2
* ATTORNEY GENERAL looks interesting statistically

He is a problem horse and hasnt won in a while
but he is down to bottom grade with a recent run.
Just 4 months ago he was 2nd at Cheltenham in a
competetive 0-120 handicap and that form would
be good enough to win this. He lost his way after
that but last time was a much better run and I see
him having the best profile in the race

Best Priced 11/2 sportingbet

Posted under horse racing tips

LINGFIELD 4.10

7/4 Becausewecan, 9/2 Dance The Star, 7/1 Cluain Alainn,
Samarinda, 10/1 Cashpoint.

This is a nasty framed race with 7 runners. Its a 0-92 handicap over 12 furlongs.
There has been 176 similar races at this time of year.
If you look at 4 year olds like BECAUSEWECAN who are having their
seasonal debuts when they have had 9 or more career starts their strike
rate dips dramatically and they have a 1-35 record with that winner having
far less weight. That would encourage me to oppose him first time out from his career high
handicap mark.  Equally no 4yo first time out debutant was like
CLUAIN ALAINN and he wouldnt interest me either. I think it is asking too
much of CASHPOINT to win this from a maiden and a small stable.
I think its between DANCE THE STAR and  SAMARINDA who finished
2nd and 5th in the same handicap  last time. DANCE THE STAR has a solid chance.
Statistically SAMARINDA has an excellent profile as a 7yo running well last time.
All his wins have been at shorter but he hasnt had a chance to show he stays properly
at 12f. He ran well over 12f last time but that was inconclusive.
He is probably value  but DANCE THE STAR did beat him last time.
I think I would have to bet one and save on another.
As SAMARINDA is better handicapped and a better price I’d see him as the best
option. Therefore DANCE THE STAR has to be the danger
but SAMARINDA the bet at around 7/1

SELECTION – SAMARINDA
7/1 betfred bet365

Posted under horse racing tips

Today its Kauto Star v Denman. In all likelyhood
Kauto Star will probably win the race but I would
argue that the statistical arguments suggest that
a better bet is Imperial Commander and Cooldine.
You oppose Kauto Star at your peril but although
it’s not a race I would want an account bet in and
will enjoy the race without being heavily involved
it wouldnt surprise me if Imperial Commander won
and I am going to have an interest bet on him.

It is the Grand Annual that interests me most and
it’s this race I’ve earmarked for our final bet of the
meeting. TARTAK does have statistical problems.
He is not a horse that flies through my angles but
that does not worry me. Nothing else does anyway.
His chance will be determined by whether he will be
as effective at this 2m trip and I think he will. This
is wide open. It is not a vintage renewal. There are
no obvious plot horses this year. The weight stat
in the race has never been more vulnerable. I see
him as a controversial choice. You will struggle to
find anyone tip him today and he is the forgotten
horse of the race. I do think he is worth betting.

CHELTENHAM 5.15

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
Challenge Cup (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1)
(5yo+)2m110y

8/1 You´re The Top, 9/1 Free World, 10/1 French Opera
10/1 Oiseau De Nuit, 10/1 Tataniano 14/1 Beggars Cap
16/1 Consigliere, 16/1 Cornas, 16/1 Fighting Chance 16/1
Safari Journey, 16/1 Tartak, 20/1 Pepsyrock, Nomecheki
33/1 Lennon, 33/1 Lord Henry, 33/1 Moon Over Miami
33/1 Russian Flag , Calatagan, 40/1 Nikola, Pigeon Island
40/1 Tramantano.

* The Grand Annual is a 2m Handicap Chase
* There has been 16 renewals since 1992

* TRAMANTANO’s chance may have gone now
* I backed him e/w at 40/1 in last years race
* He placed Gallantly but never looked like winning
* He goes well fresh but I dont want a 11yo
* Not absent as long as him and he is rejected
* CALATAGAN is too old for me
* Especially coming down 5f in distance
* PIGEON ISLAND doesnt look good enough
* NIKOLA is exposed with just 2 runs this year
* No exposed horse did that and his absence hurts him
* LORD HENRY also has two runs this season
* Not enough for an exposed 11 year old
* Exposed horses dont score well
* I wouldnt bet one without serious backclass
* RUSSIAN FLAG doesnt have that
* Thats not a good sign statistically
* MOON OVER MIAMI is too exposed over fences
* He didnt achieve enough in recent races
* LENNON looks vulnerable to me
* Especially as an exposed 10yo with 2 runs this year

* SAFARI JOURNEY has been absent 96 days
* No English horse had an absence of more than 7 weeks
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* There were 5 winners aged 6 in these races
* None won when absent over a month
* SAFARI JOURNEY shouldnt be the first
* Horses absent 7 + weeks struggled in this race
* Those aged 6-7-8 were 0-50
* SAFARI JOURNEY fails that and has to go

* PEPSYROCK fails a lot of statistics
* He looks overexposed in Chases with 17 runs
* The last 11 winners had no more than 12 runs
* I think he is short of runs this season
* He didnt run well enough last time either
* Overall I thought he had a poor profile

* NOMECHEKI has a lot to do down from 2m 5f
* Especially with just 3 Chase runs
* Thats very inexperienced and a worry
* Having no Graded form doesnt help
* I am comfortable about opposing him

* FREE WORLD is a 6 year old
* There were 2 winners aged 6
* They both had 4 + runs this year and he has 3
* They both ran within a month
* He hasnt run in 44 days
* Not brilliant trends but he does fail both
* He would have been better with 1 more run recently
* However there are 6yo stats in all chases here
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* There were 5 winners aged 6 in these races
* None had under 4 runs that season
* None won when absent over a month
* None had the weight he does either
* FREE WORLD has 11st 11lbs and thats a big weight
* The race is dominated by horses that carried 11st or less.
* In the last 9 years only 1 horse placed with 11st 3lbs or more
* You have to ask yourself about 6 year olds
* As none have won with his absence or with 1-2-3 runs
* Thats in any Festival Handicap Chase
* Is it likely  FREE WORLD will be the first with 11st 11lbs

* TATANIANO is also a 6 year old
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* There were 5 winners aged 6 in these races
* None had under 4 runs that season
* TATANIANO only has 3 runs
* None won when absent over a month
* TATANIANO has been absent 49 days
* That makes him weak statistically for me
* He also has 11st 2lbs and weight is an issue here
* The race is dominated by horses that carried 11st or less.
* TATANIANO also has just 3 Chase runs
* The last few winners had 6 13 11 5 7 10 4 11 3 6 5 39 26
* Considering he is down from 19f it could be a problem
* There are too many problems with his profile
* TATANIANO wouldnt be my choice

* YOU´RE THE TOP is a 6 year old
* He comes from a Novice Chase
* Horses aged 6 from Novice Chases were 1-15
* Last years winner (Oh Crick) did it
* That said last years winner had 6 Chase runs
* YOU´RE THE TOP only has 3
* He also had 1 run extra this season
* He also had form in Listed Class before
* YOU´RE THE TOP hasnt had that backclass
* He also had 11lbs less weight
* I think YOU´RE THE TOP has a tough task here
* He has no form in Listed or Graded Class
* Every past winner had that
* He only has 3 Chase starts as well
* Only 1 of the last 10 winners had 3 Chase starts
* That winner had Grade 1 form over hurdles
* I dont see a great profile there

* FRENCH OPERA has 11st 12lbs to carry
* In the last 9 years only 1 horse placed with 11st 3lbs or more
* He was a well beaten 4th place
* That weight wont be easy to overcome
* Not with a 97 day absence as well
* English horses in this race absent 7 weeks are 0-58
* He is ridden by an Apprentice as well
* Apprentice riders are 0-32 in this race
* FRENCH OPERA has only 3 runs this year
* I looked at every handicap chase run at the festival
* I looked at horses with 1-2-3 runs that season
* I looked at those absent 7 weeks or more
* None carried the weight he does and that worries me
* I couldnt bet him with that weight and absence

* CORNAS comes from a Grade 1 Chase
* Horses doing that score badly in all handicap chase’s
* He has a troublesome weight with 11st 8lbs
* In the last 9 years only 1 horse placed with 11st 3lbs or more
* CORNAS also has to overcome a 55 day absence
* No English horse managed that in this race
* I think his weight and absence will beat him
* He certainly isnt typical of what’s been winning this
* For whatever reason horses from Grade 1 chases struggle

* OISEAU DE NUIT is exposed with 23 career starts
* Yet he has never run in Listed or Graded horse before
* That worries me a lot
* The last 16 winners all ran in Listed or Graded class
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* Only 2 winners were exposed with no Graded class
* Neither were like OISEAU DE NUIT
* He looks far too exposed in Handicap Chases
* He has more weight than many past winners
* I wasnt convinced he was the right type

* BEGGARS CAP doesnt really impress me
* He is a little exposed having his 12th handicap start
* He is a little exposed over fences with 15 runs
* The last 11 winners had no more than 12 runs in Chases.
* Overall I dont have huge problems with him
* His last run beaten miles doesnt help his profile
* 35 of the last 39 winners placed in their previous chase
* He doesnt and I see him as a bit on the unsafe side

P O S S I B L E S

* CONSIGLIERE comes from a hurdle race
* I dont have a big problem with that
* I think he is a bit exposed in handicap chases
* I think he could do with a few lbs less weight
* Neither problem would be a dealbreaker though
* He has no form higher than in a class 2 race though
* The last 16 winners all ran in better grade
* That makes him look weaker statistically
* I dont like his mark of 145 much
* There could also be an issue with the big field
* Overall I would make him a “Possible”
* Thats being Generous though based on his profile

* FIGHTING CHANCE has never in in Class 2 or higher
* Every past winner had ran in 2 Grades higher
* That has to be a big worry for a 10 year old
* We have had 3 winners aged 10 like him
* None of these came from a 2m chase
* They all had form in Graded races
* I wouldnt rule him out despite that
* He isnt exposed at all and is on a roll
* He has won his last 3 Handicap Chases
* Up in class and up in weight wont be easy at all
* He has a low weight though and he could improve
* FIGHTING CHANCE would be a “Possible” for me

SELECTION

TARTAK 16/1 bet365 vc will hill

( if you are betting ew bet365 offer 5 places )

* TARTAK has had 12 Chase starts
* It’s a little more than ideal but workable
* He has 11st 6lbs and thats a tough weight in this
* The race is dominated by horses that carried 11st or less.
* He does have Grade 1 form though
* I quite liked the rest of his profile
* Much will depend on whether he is a 2 miler
* Since the 2009 Arkle has has ran at 2m 4f and more
* This may well be his best distance

TARTAK started 10/1 in last years Arkle. He ran very
well after being hampered in a rough race and jumped
the last only 2 lengths down against Grade 1 horses.
He then went and won at Aintree over 2m 4f and that
may have formed an imprint with some that TARTAK
needs further than 2 Miles. That could be a mistake.

* His form suggests he likes Flat Tracks
* I disagree with that myself
* How can you Pigeon hole a horse after a few runs
* I watched last years Arkle and he ran well
* That tells me he will have no problem here
* His other 2 races here were when he didnt stay
* Tom George is on record saying this
* I think he has run very well here before

This year he has run 5 times. I think you can excuse his
seasonal debut when he didnt jump well and was well
beaten. That was a Grade 2 handicap and he was only a
novice but it says a lot that he was made favourite. He
was then well beaten in the Paddy Power Gold Cup but
he was statistically dead in the water that day anyway
and if you watch the video he ran better than it looked
and was only beaten half a mile out when it looked like
he did not stay. TARTAK then placed at Huntingdon in
the Peterborough Chase. Nothing wrong with that run.
Look who was behind him. Albertas Run and Tidal Bay.
He may well have won that without slipping up.

His 4th race was in Kauto Star’s King George over 3m
and there is no surprise that he didnt stay 3 Miles. Its
interesting he was no bigger price that day than many
Grade 1 horses and I watched that and felt he ran with
plenty of credit but clearly didnt get home.

Last time out he dropped down to todays trip of 2 miles.
It was asking a lot for him to come down from 3m to 2m.
He didnt run badly in 5th place against a few runners in
this race. That race doesnt put me off. He needed a run
and had a harder task than it looked that day. After the
race Tom George hinted the horse wasnt well ridden and
strongly hinted that 2 miles was probably the right trip.

TARTAK now gets the chance to prove that. He has to
carry more weight than most previous winners and that
is a worry but I will forgive him that. He has Grade 1 form
and run in some serious races and its a matter of time to
wait before we get a winner again with 11st or more. He
doesnt pass all my angles in the race and there are some
question marks for him. I just think he is worth the risk.
He has some serious form behind him. I am taking the
view that this 2m suits him much better.  He will race in
the first half dozen today and I think he has the ability
to win this race.  Its not a vintage race. There has been
no Plot horses or throw in lightweights. Every horse is
9/1 and more. There is nothing special in this race and
With a stable in hot form I see him as very interesting.

**********************************************
**********************************************

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

Posted under Major Horse Races

In the Kim Muir I am heavily involved with two bets.
I have backed SHILLINGSTONE at 8/1 and I have a
nice bet at 20/1 on BOYCHUK as well. I have to bet
BOYCHUK as a saver but one that wins plenty too.
What I like about this pair is not so much the profiles
they have but the negative profiles many of the other
horses have. I am not just talking about them being
unsuitable for todays race. I am talking about horses
who have profiles that wouldnt have won any chase
at Cheltenham in the last 15 years such is their lack
of neccesary requirements. Some Powerful negatives
in this race. I know there are 24 runners and luck will
be important but take your time when reading why I
am on them and you will hopefully agree I have made
a strong case for both horses winning this race.

**********************************************

CHELTENHAM 4.40

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup
(Handicap Chase) (Amateur Riders)
(CLASS 2) (5yo+ 0-140) 3m1f110y

13/2 Ballabriggs, 7/1 Shillingstone, 8/1 Galant Nuit
12/1 Isn´t That Lucky, 12/1 Nostringsattached
16/1 Faltering Fullback, 16/1 Finger Onthe Pulse
16/1 I´moncloudnine, 16/1 Khachaturian, 20/1 Boychuk
20/1 Faasel, 20/1 Heathcliff, 20/1 Kia Kaha, 20/1 Lysander
25/1 Buck The Legend, 25/1 Hello Bud, 25/1 Ma Yahab
25/1 Saphir Des Bois, 25/1 Zitenka, 40/1 Oodachee
50/1 Burren Legend, 50/1 Freds Benefit, 50/1 Mr Robert
50/1 Parsons Legacy.

* The Kim Muir is a 25f Handicap Chase for Amateurs
* There has been 16 renewals since 1992

* BURREN LEGEND surely wont win absent 523 days
* MR ROBERT has been off too long for an exposed horse
* He has too much weight for an exposed horse as well
* PARSONS LEGACY wont be fit enough
* FREDS BENEFIT has a horrible profile
* I couldnt bet an exposed horse from a 2m race
* FAASEL has a weak profile
* No exposed horse had under 4 runs this season
* ZITENKA probably isnt good enough
* Nothing too much wrong with his profile
* I cant match him to any past winners though
* I suspect he will find this too warm
* I would have to worry about the track as well

* Horses aged 11 or more are 0-57 in this race
* Cheltenham have had 70 handicap chases
* Thats 70 races at the Festival at any distance
* No 11 year old won with over a Months absence
* They had a 0-88 record and its a poor profile
* LYSANDER fails that and has been absent 76 days
* OODACHEE also fails that and other stats
* HELLO BUD is a 12yo and looks too old for this
* No exposed horse like him won any festival handicap
* The only older horses like him had form in Grade 1 or 2
* No horse his age won any festival race like him
* Not when so well beaten last time
* Not when lacking Grade 1-2 form

* MA YAJAB has just 2 runs this season
* Horses with under 4 runs this season struggled in this
* Exposed types like him were 0-42
* Cheltenham have had 70 handicap chases
* Thats 70 races at the Festival at any distance
* I looked for exposed horses with 1-2 runs that year
* There were 3 winners but they all had 1 thing in common
* They all had form in a Grade 1 race
* No exposed horse that hadnt got Grade 1 form won
* Not with just 1-2 runs that season
* That tells me MA YAJAB wont win

* I´MONCLOUDNINE is a 7 year old
* There were 2 winning 7 year olds
* Neither were absent over a month like him
* Neither came from 3m or shorter like him
* Horses aged 7 only have a 2-52 record
* None had his weight but that doesnt bother me
* I´MONCLOUDNINE isnt like any past winner
* Cheltenham have had 70 handicap chases
* Thats 70 races at the Festival at any distance
* I looked at the record or all 7 year olds
* Those without Graded Form before struggled
* Those with 9 + runs like him won just 1 race
* That winner had a much recent run
* I´MONCLOUDNINE has questions to answer

* GALANT NUIT is 6 years old
* Horses aged 6 are 0-17 in this race since 1992
* The last 6 year old winner was in 1971
* GALANT NUIT  fails a big generic statistic
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* There were 5 winners aged 6 in these races
* None had under 4 runs that season
* None won when absent over a month
* GALANT NUIT fails both those trends
* He has been absent 124 days
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* I looked at horses like GALLANT NUIT
* Absent more than 3 months
* No form in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race
* Horses with that profile struggled
* Those with 13 + runs were 0-41
* This tells me he will struggle to win
* GALLANT NUIT is a negative

* SAPHIR DES BOIS is also a 6yo
* We know they are 0-17 in this race
* SAPHIR DES BOIS also steps up from 2m 4f
* There are 32 festival handicaps at 3m since 1993
* Thats 16 renewals of this race
* And 16 renewals of the William Hill Trophy
* Only 1 winner came from a 2m 4f race
* He was much older and had much less weight
* SAPHIR DES BOIS could struggle aged 6 from 2m 4f
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled anyway
* They had a 1-68 record in 16 renewals

* ISN´T THAT LUCKY has been absent 110 days
* He has only had 2 runs this season
* His trainer says he will either win or come last
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* I looked at horses with 1-2 runs this season
* When they had absences of 7 weeks or more
* When they had 9 + runs this season
* No winner aged 6-7-8 had that profile in the 70 races
* ISN´T THAT LUCKY isnt like any Festival winner
* We know 7 year olds dont score well in this anyway
* Both 7yo winners had 5 + runs this season
* Both ran within a month as well
* He also has to come from a 2m 4f race
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* They had a 1-68 record in 16 renewals
* ISN´T THAT LUCKY doesnt come out well

* NOSTRINGSATTACHED has been absent 202 days
* He fails my Generic Cheltenham statistic
* Cheltenham has had 132 Handicaps since 1993
* Thats 132 Handicaps at any distance – hurdle or chase
* Thats every handicap run at the festival in 17 years
* I looked at horses that were absent 80 + days
* I then look at those with 13 + runs
* 8 winners won with 13 + runs and 80 + days off
* The 8 winners all had 1 think in common
* They had all ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race
* That tells me he shouldnt defy his absence
* Especially with quite a tough weight

* FINGER ONTHE PULSE has just 2 runs this year
* He also has a 110 day absence
* That worries me for an exposed horse
* There has been 70 handicap chases at the festival
* Thats 70 races at any distance since 1993
* Only 1 exposed horse won with 1-2 runs that year
* And with an absence like that
* That was Joes Edge in the 2007 William Hill Trophy
* He carries 17lbs more weight than Joes Edge did
* FINGER ONTHE PULSE has other issues
* He comes from 2m 4f
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* They had a 1-68 record in 16 renewals
* Only 2 past winners carried more weight
* Both were unexposed and had 4-5 runs that year
* No exposed horse won carrying more than 11st
* He is a course winner and they have poor records
* FINGER ONTHE PULSE fails too many angles for me

* FALTERING FULLBACK comes from a Novice race
* Horses doing that in this race were 0-40
* He also comes from 2m 4f or shorter
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* They had a 1-68 record in 16 renewals
* FALTERING FULLBACK doesnt look right

* KHACHATURIAN is a 7yo
* There were 2 winners that age win this race
* Both ran within a month
* He has been absent 41 days but thats forgiveable
* Those aged 7 from 3m 1f or shorter were 0-39
* He comes from a 2m 5f race
* Thats a little harder to forgive
* Both 7 year old winners also had at least 10lbs less weight
* Horses in this race from a Novice race were 0-40
* KHACHATURIAN fails that as well
* We know horses from 2m 6f or less are 1-68 as well
* KHACHATURIAN also has that against him
* Most of his wins come on sharp tracks as well
* His 3 runs at Cheltenham were all poor runs
* We know no exposed winner had 11st or more
* Overall not a very impressive profile

* KIA KAHA comes from 2m 5f
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* They had a 1-68 record in 16 renewals
* He is a course winner as well
* Course winners have a weak 1-81 record in 16 years
* These are the only 2 statistical problems
* I dont like his profile but others fail a lot more
* His jumping though just doesnt look good enough
* Its gone to pot lately and I couldnt trust him

* HEATHCLIFF comes out a lot better than most
* Doesnt mean he has a strong profile though
* HEATHCLIFF does have much backclass
* I looked at horses like him with no Graded form
* Those with 13 + career runs won 5 races
* Only 1 was aged under 9 years old though
* He ran far better last time and had more prep runs
* He also looks light on experience with 4 Chase runs
* There was 1 past winner with 4 runs (Honey Mount)
* Funnily enough he comes from the same Ludlow race
* That said Honey Mount won the Ludlow race
* HEATHCLIFF ran badly and nearly refused to race
* I think that makes him too risky

* BUCK THE LEGEND is shaky
* He may have a better chance than it looks
* He comes from a 2m 5f race
* We know horses 2m 6f or shorter were just 1-68
* Exposed horses from 3m or shorter last time were 1-74
* He has more weight than any exposed winner
* He isnt like any past winner and is Shaky
* I think he is well handicapped though
* Perhaps I wanted him to be stronger statistically
* Certainly has some Jumping issues as well
* Overall I cant make a strong enough case for him
* His inexperienced jockey also worries me

* BALLABRIGGS comes here with a W W record
* He has to carry Topweight in this race
* There has been 1 winner in the last 16 renewals
* That had a 11st 3lbs or more with no Graded Class
* I looked at all 70 Handicap Chases at the festival
* Thats every Handicap Chase at any distance
* I looked at horses with 11st 8lbs or more
* There were 5 winners with that weight
* All 5 had Graded Class and he doesnt
* BALLABRIGGS doesnt look great with that in mind
* He is on a roll and I would respect him
* It’s a tough task though and his mark is high
* Throw in the fact he is unproven here
* I think its a lot to ask but I cant rule him out

S E L E C T I O N

* BOYCHUK has been absent 96 days
* Royal Predica won this in 2003 with a longer break
* He was also exposed with Graded Form
* That gives hope to BOYCHUK
* That said In 70 festival handicap chases
* Thats 70 handicap chases at every distance
* Only 1 exposed horse had that absence/weight
* That leaves him looking Shaky
* He is a Course winner which hasnt been helpful
* He has won Fresh and I think he is shortlistable
* His Grade 1 form cuts him lots of slack
* He doesnt have the strong profile I would like
* BOYCHUK would be a saver for me

SHILLINGSTONE

* SHILLINGSTONE has the 1 profile I like
* He is far from statistically safe
* I have only found 1 past winner like him
* Part of his attraction is strong angles against others
* He only has 6 Chase starts
* I looked at Horses with his profile
* Horses aged 8
* Coming from a Handicap
* No Form in Class 2 races or better
* Under 7 Career runs
* Only 1 horse in  16 renewals had that profile
* That Was Bushkeeper who won in 2005
* All that does is tell me he is fine statistically
* He has 6 Chase starts but lighter raced chasers have won
* There has been recent winners with 4 and 5 chase starts
* He comes from the same Sandown race as the 1995 winner
* The Alners have had 3 runners in this race
* They finished W W 4
* SHILLINGSTONE won many point to points
* He won a Hunter Chase for the Alners Daughter
* This season he switched to the Robert and Sally Alner
* He won his first 2 races when looking well treated
* He then raced just once more last time at Sandown
* He was a little bit dissapointing in 6th place
* Heavy Ground hurt his chance with an 83 day break
* I think he had a good excuse that day
* I think he ran with this race in mind anyway
* Well backed when the weights came out
* He was always laid out for this race
* I think there are massive holes in his opposition
* SHILLINGSTONE looks the likely winner

****************************************************

Posted under Major Horse Races

No joy with the free blog bets yesterday.
A touch unfortunate with the race we chose to post up.
It was one of multiple races covered for full members and it
was the other races where the winning selections arose.

Guy went through the Cheltenham card yesterday and highlighted the following selections

Dunguib win bet 10/11 – Lost
Menorah to beat Blackstairmountain in Match Bet 10/11 – Won
Oscar Whisky Each Way 9/2 without the favourite  – Won

CHELTENHAM  2.05
Sizing Europe  Each Way 5/1   Won

CHELTENHAM  2.40

Split Stake Bet

Nenuphar Collonges 22/1 Lost
Kicks For Free 25/1 Lost

CHELTENHAM 3.20

Binocular 8/1 Win Bet  – Won
Solwhit 7/1  Saver Bet – Lost

CHELTENHAM 4.00

Freneys Well 33/1 Each Way
Another Jewel to beat Monkerhostin in match bet  10/11 Won

CHELTENHAM 4.40

Voler La Vedette Win Bet 2/1  Lost
No One Tells Me Place Bet 5/2  Lost

He has done a similar through the card  today for full members
*************************************************
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
*************************************************

As per yesterday just one race on the free blog.

CHELTENHAM WEDNESDAY 2.05

Neptune Investment Management Novices´ Hurdle
(Registered As Baring Bingham Novices´ Hurdle)
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m5f

7/2 Quel Esprit, 7/2 Rite Of Passage, 11/2 Finian´s Rainbow
6/1 Peddlers Cross, 10/1 Summit Meeting, 11/1 Reve De Sivola 1
6/1 Manyriverstocross, 20/1 Ghizao, 25/1 The Knoxs
33/1 Gus Macrae, 33/1 Some Present, 50/1 Hollo Ladies
66/1 Baily Rock, 100/1 Sleepy Hollow, 100/1 The Giant Bolster
200/1 Consulate, 200/1 Quartano.

* This is a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 2m 5f
* There has been 16 renewals since 1992

I think you can rule out half the field. Pointless doing
too much analysis on no hopers. Its not a race that is
likely to go to a complete outsider and never has done.
I think THE KNOXS is underraced for a 7yo and lacks
backclass. He looks to come up short.  I dont like a 5yo
like SUMMIT MEETING coming from just an ordinary
Novice Hurdle. I think GHIZAO is underraced as well
coming from a 2m race and with just 2 hurdle starts I’d
see him as vulnerable. MANYRIVERSTOCROSS does
not come out well from a 2m handicap and none of the
past winners were like him. Five look worth a mention.

* REVE DE SIVOLA is hard to judge
* His biggest problem is clearly his absence
* No horse won without having run in January -February.
* No Refuge had a similar profile in 2005
* He didnt have as long a break as this horse
* He was also much lighter raced
* Wouldnt rule him out
* There are better profiles for me

* PEDDLERS CROSS is 5 and comes from a 2m race
* I dont like that profile at all
* Since 1993 just 1 winner was 5 coming from 2m 4f or less
* The record was 1 winner from 33 that tried
* That winner was the mightly Istabraq in 1997
* I think we can safely say he is an exception to the rule
* Istabraq prepped over 18f before winning this
* No English horse aged 5 came 1st or 2nd in this from a 2m race
* He wouldnt be my choice to win this race

* RITE OF PASSAGE has looks top class
* He does have a few little issues to address
* Its unclear whether Cheltenham is his best track
* 3rd in the Bumper last year he was beaten a fair way
* He is a Flat Bred horse which is a concern
* This race usually falls to a National Hunt bred horse
* He has only ran twice over hurdles before
* 20 of the last 24 winners all had more than 2 hurdle runs

* QUEL ESPRIT ran in the Cheltenham bumper last year
* He was just behind Rites of Passage in 4th
* He has 3 hurdle runs and that makes more suitable
* His defeat last time did blot his copybook
* 3 of the last 7 winners were beaten though last time
* Statistically I think he is just better than Rites of Passage

* FINIAN´S RAINBOW is a 7 year old
* We know Horses aged 5 and 6 dominate
* They have won 33 of the last 38 renewals
* The last 10 winners and runner ups were aged 5 or 6
* I am not sure thats a statistic thats relevant
* FINIAN´S RAINBOW didnt start racing until he was 6
* The only previous 7yo winner started his career late
* As he is lightly raced I dont see his age as a big issue
* I looked at 7 year olds in this race since 1993
* I Looked at those starting under 20/1
* I looked at those with Grade 1 form
* I looked at those winning last time out
* I looked at those not coming from 16f races
* There were only 2 horses aged 7 with that profile
* They finished 1st (1998) and 3rd (2006)
* That tells me there is nothing wrong with his profile

SELECTION

Split Stake Bet

FINIAN’S RAINBOW 11/2

SOME PRESENT 33/1  Each Way

Interesting race. I would only want Rites of Passage
if he was strong statistically but he isnt. Quel Esprit
is slightly better but the ground could be the problem
with him and it does put me off a bit. I know horses in
this race aged 7 havent done well but I hope I have
shown that only a certain type of 7yo struggle and
horses like FINIAN’S RAINBOW are fine. I would be
having half my stake on him.

The other half of the stake is far more specualtive but
at 33/1 SOME PRESENT could be a bit overpriced. He
isnt brilliant statistically but he is 33/1 and he isnt dead my any means.
My arguments are these

* There are question marks about shorter priced horses
* He ran in the 2009 Bumper here and came second
* He was only beaten by Dunguib
* He beat Rites of Passage and Quel Esprit that day
* Since then he has a W 2 2 2 6 3 record
* Twice he has been beaten by Dunguib again
* He hasnt been well placed in his races
* He was the victim of many slow pace races
* He comes from a Grade 1 race thats a good trial
* Although beaten 13 lengths there were excuses
* He was hardly likely to beat Dunguib
* The ground was heavy that day which hurt him
* His sire has only had 2 fancied runners in this race
* They came 2nd and 4th
* He should be much better suited to faster ground
* He will appreciate the trip and the stronger pace
* There is a bit of a leap of faith but he could go well
* SOME PRESENT could run much better than expected

Posted under horse racing tips