Newmarket Horse Racing Tip

NEWMARKET 2.35

bet365 Ben Marshall Stakes (Listed Race)
(CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m

9/4 Alexandros, 5/2 Secrecy, 11/2 Nationalism, 7/1 Kingsfor 8/1 The Cheka, 12/1 Balducci, 14/1 Mia´s Boy, 50/1 Letty.

This is a Listed Class race over 8f. Newmarket has 24 similar  races at this time of year.
I can tell you horses from a 7f race  had a 0-60 record in these 24 races.
SECRECY – MIA´S BOY  KINGSFORT and BALDUCCI all have that against them.
It’s easy to oppose LETTY. This leaves 3 runners and all 3 have decent chances in an open race.
ALEXANDROS is one option  but I didnt see a good enough case for him.
Only 4 of the 24 winners were exposed and all 4 dropped in distance and none like
ALEXANDROS came from a Mile or less (0-29) and as he has just 1 run since July I wasnt convinced.
THE CHEKA  may well go well but he also has just one run since July and it  may leave him short of full fitness.
NATIONALISM for me.

NATIONALISM  is a 3 year old and they have a good record
and several lighter raced ones like him have won. I think it is very significant his half brother won this race in 2004
and he is being asked to do the same.
His low draw killed his Chance  in the Cambridgeshire last time.
He started favourite for that  race and there were rumours he was a Group horse at the time.
With more improvement than most I love his chance in this.

SELECTION – NATIONALISM Each Way 6/1 bet365Coral – VC

Posted under horse racing tips

Saturday Racing Message

This free blog poses a few conundrums for us.

If you recall back in August we mentioned a change from our old style very select Account Bets to a more frequent style of bet we call the Daily Recommendation.

These have been doing very well for full members of mathematician betting.

Return on investment to date is about 140%

ie for every £1000 staked you would have gotten £1400 back for a net profit of £400

See old sample at http://www.horse-betting-blog.co.uk/horse-racing-tips/horse-betting-message-for-saturday/

With paying clients to consider and respect however we can not put these up here for free  every weekend.

What we post here is often the second class stuff from deeper in the message.

With several double digit winners here however it is second class for us but still worth you noting.

It does leave us with the conundrum however of we want to impress you so you will join but at the same time you are not seeing the best as we have to respect our normal clients.

Not quite sure what the best solution is but for now all I can do is suggest you join up as a full member.

You can always call on the refund guarantee if you change your mind.

Hopefully you will stay long term however when you realise you have found a good thing.

This week my chores involved asking two members who joined for a year about a year ago to renew. Both were very keen to do so and joined up for another year. Its a hard thing to measure a service on but if there were some official means to measure a service on how happy clients were to renew long term subscriptions.. Mathematician Betting would score very highly indeed.

We still have clients who joined us first over five years ago !

We do have right now in the full member area a proper Daily Recommendation for today .

On to todays free blog race however.

Its an interesting choice with a  bit of market support for it since given out to full members earlier this morning.

CHEPSTOW 4.10

Totesport 0800 221 221 Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle
(Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+)  2m4f

4/1 Duke Of Lucca, 4/1 Pistolet Noir, 6/1 Working Title
7/1 Restless Harry, 8/1 Sir Harry Ormesher, 10/1 Tullamore Dew 12/1 Any Given Day, 12/1 Pickamus, 14/1 Benbane Head
16/1 Mohanad, 20/1 Dantari, 20/1 Mad Moose
25/1 Chief Yeoman, 33/1 Hills Of Aran.

* This is a 2m 4f Handicap Hurdle in Listed Class
* There has been 18 renewals of this race

This race has been dominated by seasonal debutants. Only 3
of the 18 winners had run this season. Horses that had done
that but who failed to win this year were 0-43 so DANTARI
ANY GIVEN DAY -MAD MOOSE and Hills OF ARAN do
not appeal. WORKING TITLE has won this season. Horses
doing that coming from 2m 4f or further have a weak 0-35
record. Horses it aged 6 or more were just 1-38 and the sole winner had a loss less weight and I see WORKING TITLE as unsafe. Exposed horses like CHIEF YEOMAN are opposable.
No horse won first time out from a handicap chase which is
a problem for PICKAMUS and Henry Daly doesnt look like
a trainer to trust with debutants and he might need this race. There were 2 winners aged 4 but both were lightly raced and I did not think MOHANAD was the right type or 4 year old. TULLAMORE DEW is a little bit exposed for a debutant and  may just have a bit too much weight for his age.

* PISTOLET NOIR – 1 similar winner but unsafe
* DUKE OF LUCCA – Good profile aside from his weight
* Horses with 11st 5lbs or more are 1-44 in this race
* Thats a big worry for DUKE OF LUCCA
* SIR HARRY ORMESHER – His age and weight are problems
* RESTLESS HARRY – shortlistable but a nasty weight

SELECTION

BENBANE HEAD has a good a profile as any and looks
a bit of value. There were many Novice Hurdle Seasonal
debutants like him with Grade 1 form and a light weight
and many of the better profiles in the race have weights
that are hard to carry in this race so he does appeal as a
decent price in an open race.

Was about 8/1 earlier when given to full members

Now 13/2 at Tote

Posted under horse racing tips

Newmarket Longshot

NEWMARKET 1.50

victor chandler Challenge Stakes (Group 2)
(CLASS 1) (3yo+) 7f

2/1 Delegator, 5/1 Red Jazz, 10/1 Mabait, 10/1 Main Aim
12/1 Cat Junior, 12/1 Dream Eater, 16/1 High Standing
20/1 Duff, 20/1 Himalya, Shakespearean, 25/1 Harrison George 25/1 Sir Gerry, 33/1 Golden Stream, 50/1 Blue Angel.

* The Challenge Stakes is a Group race over 7f
* There are 20 renewals since 1990
* 18 of the 20 winners had between 9 and 14 career runs
* Horses with 13 or more starts struggled
* The only ones that won had Grade 1 form before
* Male 3 year olds are just 1-37 with 13 or more runs
* No 3 year old has won this down in distance

SHORTLIST

* DELEGATOR has 1 run this season
* A Few past winners had 2 runs but none had 1
* Thats the biggest problem he faces
* BLUE ANGEL has a surprisingly good profile
* She is very similar to the 2007 winner
* She is  close to 2 other winners
* In a race of shocks she could be interesting
* 3 Year Old fillies with 7-12 career starts
* Finishing 1-2-3-4 last time
* At least 6 runs this season
* These horses had a 4-6 record in this race
* The last 2 that won (2007 and 2000) were 20/1
* BLUE ANGEL is a possibly shock  winner.

It looks a ridiculous shout to go with BLUE ANGLE who
is 50/1 and more on Betfair and multiple bookmakers but the last 10 renewals have
seen horses win a 20/1 20/1 20/1 20/1 and 16/1 and they
were impossible to find as well so she may be able to nick
a place. I’m not keen on any of the alternatives so with a
risk of making myself look stupid I will go with her.

Definately more chance of losing with this bet than winning with it but the name of the game is long term edge and at 50/1 I sniff some value.
SELECTION

BLUE ANGEL 50/1 + Each  Way bet365betfredLadbrokess james

Posted under horse racing tips

Racing Tip At York

Not our main full member bet of the day but we have a piece from our extra race analysis section for you.

YORK 2.45

Coral Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85)  2m2f

7/4 Descaro, 5/1 Head Hunted, 6/1 Tillietudlem, 8/1 Nemo Spirit 10/1 Act Of Kalanisi, 10/1 Dubara Reef, 10/1 Dulcie
12/1 Bollin Judith, 14/1 Sphinx, 25/1 Folk Tune.

* This is a Handicap over 18f for 0-82 rated horses
* October has had 41 handicaps like this over 17f-18f
* There were 85 similar races between September – November
* Horses from 13f or shorter had a 2-72 record
* None of these were exposed (0-22)
* None from 12f races were aged 5 or more (0-35)
* No horse doing had 8st 12lbs or more
* FOLK TUNE comes from 12f and fails all those angles
* NEMO SPIRIT also comes from 13f
* No horse managed that when aged 5 or more like him
* No horse managed that with his weight as well
* Aged 5 with only runs this season would worry me
* I think that and his weight and jump in trip hurt him
* I dont see him overcoming all those factors
* There was only 1 winner aged 9 or more
* SPHINX is surely too old as a 12 year old
* Especially with a 188 day absence as well
* DULCIE is a filly with 2 runs this season
* No filly won without at least 5 runs that season
* DULCIE looks underraced for a filly
* ACT OF KALANISI is a 4yo Male
* 4 year old males with 13 or more career starts are just 1-43
* Those running like him within a month were 0-35
* Those like him coming from 16f or shorter were 0-33
* ACT OF KALANISI doesnt come out well
* Its the Fillies aged 4 that do well in these races
* Male 4 year olds have a much weaker record
* I looked at 85 races between September and November
* I looked at Male 4 year olds coming from 14f or less
* Those that had 4 or more career starts were 0-53
* ACT OF KALANISI has a weak profile in my view
* TILLIETUDLEM  is a exposed 4yo Male
* In 41 similar races in October these types are 0-10
* I did find 3 winners like him in September races
* They all had more backclass than he does
* All 3 winners all ran within 2 weeks and he doesnt
* TILLIETUDLEM was beaten easily by DESCARO last time
* Even on better weight terms he will do well to reverse that form
* This is a harder race and he could well lack the class
* There is no encouragement from his profile
* DUBARA REEF is 3 and comes from a 3yo handicap
* Plenty of 3 year olds won like that with 7-12 starts
* None had 13 or more runs and DUBARA REEF has 14 runs
* DUBARA REEF is more exposed than ideal for a 3yo
* 3 year olds like him from 3yo handicaps over 14f won 2 races
* Those with 9 or more starts doing that were 0-9
* He really needs a few less runs to be ideal

POSSIBLES

* DESCARO is a exposed 4yo Male
* In 41 similar races in October these types are 0-10
* I did find 3 winners like him in September races
* They all had far more runs this year than he does
* They all had a lot more backclass as well
* All 3 winners all ran within 2 weeks and he doesnt
* That said he stays and won very easily last time
* Since running over longer trips he has looked progressive
* He probably has a far better chance than the stats imply
* This is a harder race though and he will be tested

SHORTLIST

* BOLLIN JUDITH is a 4yo filly with 19 career starts
* Fillies aged 4 with 13 or more starts were 3-18
* Those with 9st or lower running with 7 weeks are 3-13
* BOLLIN JUDITH has a good profile
* All her wins are on faster ground at 14f
* She stays 15f on soft ground seems to be fine
* She is from a stamina laden family but will she stay
* Interesting all 3 renewals of this race went to a Filly
* There are some concerns about trip and ground
* She has been underestimated for me in the betting
* I most fear Head Hunted in this race
* HEAD HUNTED is 3 and comes from a 2m handicap
* 3 year olds with that profile and 7-12 runs are 5-33
* Statistically he has a reasonable profile
* HEAD HUNTED has to show he stays

SPLIT STAKE BET

BOLLIN JUDITH 12/1 at bet365BoyleSportsCorals james
HEAD HUNTED 6/1 at bet365betfredLadbrokess james

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on October 9, 2010

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Rainfall Expected at Newmarket

Saturday October 2nd

1 Daily Reccomendation

Newmarket 3.00

RAINFALL 7/1

Each Way

8/1 bet365Tote
15/2 Skybet – VC
7/1 betfred -Blue Sq – BoyleSports -Corals -PaddyPower

NEWMARKET 3.00

Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes
(Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1)(3yo+) 1m

4/1 Music Show, 4/1 Sahpresa, 11/2 Seta, 11/2 Strawberrydaiquiri 6/1 Spacious,
7/1 Rainfall, 14/1 Aviate, 33/1 Alsace Lorraine 33/1 Hen Night, 33/1 Sent From Heaven, 40/1 Lahaleeb.

The Sun Chariot Stakes has 10 past renewals as a Group 2
or Group 1 race. In these races horses beaten more than 4
lengths last time out were 0-30 in this race.
All winners of this race were either 3 or 4 year olds.
SAHPRESA has that against her. If you look at horses with only 1-2-3 runs this season you found 2 winners.
None were aged 4 or more and None had 9 or more career starts and SAHPRESA fails both those angles.
Horses like SPACIOUS with 13 or more starts struggled.
Only 1 past winner had that many runs and that was only a 3 year old.
STRAWBERRYDAIQUIRI has been absent a while and I can’t match her.
AVIATE drops from  a 10f race and needed to have won last time to have been like any past winner.
I would shortlist 3 horses in this. It’s hard to ignore MUSIC SHOW or SETA and both look like big runners.
That said 3 year olds like MUSIC SHOW and SETA coming from an 8f race only had a 1-25 record
and  that winner was less exposed than MUSIC SHOW and was lighter raced than both.
I prefer RAINFALL from these 3.

* Horses aged 3
* Coming from a 7f race
* Form in Group 1 of Group 2 races
* 4 or more runs that season
* There were 3 horses with that profile in this race
* All 3 horses won in 2000 2006 and 2007
* RAINFALL has that profile
* Admittedly none 7 runs that season they all had 4-5-6 runs
* None tried though with 7 runs though and I’m overlooking that
* RAINFALL each way is my bet

I think she has been underestimate in a nicely frame race
and horses with very similar profiles were W W W in the
race so I see her as a very interesting runner.
She has one or two lengths to find with a couple of these but
that’s not impossible especially on this ground and I think
she has a serious chance of beating these from the best age group.

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on October 2, 2010

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