The Hennessy is top class and a fascinating puzzle.
I am going for an outsider.
This has to be the best quality Hennessy in recent years.
There are a dozen that can win.
My choice is not one of the safer bets and he may easily
run badly for any number of reasons but I like him at
the price and feel there are good reasons to bet him
at more than 20/1 so I’m going with CARRUTHERS

NEWBURY 3.05

Hennessy Gold Cup Chase Handicap Grade 3
(CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3m2f110y

9/2 Denman, 11/2 Weird Al, 15/2 Burton Port
8/1 Diamond Harry, 8/1 Pandorama, 12/1 Big Fella Thanks
12/1 Taranis, 16/1 Madison Du Berlais, 16/1 Neptune Collonges 20/1 Carruthers,
20/1 Hey Big Spender, 25/1 Silver By Nature 33/1 The Tother One, 40/1 Barbers Shop,
40/1 Niche Market 50/1 Dream Alliance, 50/1 Razor Royale, 150/1 Hills Of Aran.

* The Hennessy is a 0-182 Handicap Chase
* This is a Top Class Handicap for 0-182 rated horses
* There are 18 renewals since 1992
* Horses with 6-20 career starts dominate the Hennessy
* Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs
* 17-34-10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
* Horses with Under 8 runs in Handicaps dominate
* The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
* 21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* Finishing 1st-2nd last time is important
* 16 of the last 17 winners were 1st or 2nd last time

NEGATIVES

* BARBERS SHOP can’t win after a dreadfull last run.
* SILVER BY NATURE doesnt appeal to me
* I dont want an exposed seasonal debutant
* He may be using this for a Welsh National prep race
* He doesnt have the backclass for a Hennessy winner
* NICHE MARKET- Hills OF ARAN are outclassed
* RAZOR ROYALE – DREAM ALLIANCE are outclassed
* DENMAN tries to win this for the 3rd time
* He won with this weight in 2007 and 2009
* This year I would rather oppose him
* His 2 wins in this race came from marks of 161 and 174
* Today he a better class field and a tough mark of 182
* This is his hardest task in this race and I dont like his chance
* DENMAN is a 10 year old
* Since 1992 horses aged 10 or more are 0-46 in this race
* The last winner his aged was back in 1981
* Before that the previous one was in 1967
* He is more exposed than almost all the past 18 winners

* He is possibly on the downgrade now on last years evidence
* Dissapointed in 2 of his last 3 runs and he has plenty to prove
* Statistically DENMAN is weak in this years race

* THE TOTHER ONE has run this year in a Graded Chase
* Horses with that profile had a 0-23 record
* He doesnt look well handicapped at the moment
* 7 Chase starts and he only has 1 win in a Novice Chase
* Well down the stable pecking order he may lack the class

* DIAMOND HARRY may fail for lack of experience
* I looked at 7yo seasonal debutants with Grade 1 form
* Those with 9-20 career starts from Grade 1 races were 2-3
* Trabolgan (2005) and Denman (2007) had this profile
* They only other that had it was a 1st fence faller in 2003
* That W F W record makes DIAMOND HARRY interesting
* Its fair to say the 2 similar winners won the Sun Alliance last time
* DIAMOND HARRY Pulled up in the Sun Alliance
* In his favour though is he carries 24lbs less weight
* There is a concern whether he has enough Chase experience
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* DIAMOND HARRY only has 3 Chase starts
* He only completed in 2 of those races
* His only wins came in tiny fields and lack of experience hurts him

* TARANIS is a 9yo seasonal debutant
* He has a superb record when running after an absence
* His main problem is the record of debutants his age
* Since 1992 Seasonal debutants aged 9 or more are 0-42
* He is quite exposed for a seasonal debutant
* Thats my main objection to him
* He is older and more exposed than ideal for a debutant
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES has the same problem
* He is 9 and has not run in 624 days
* No past winner has won with anything like that absence
* No exposed horse has won first time out anyway
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES doesnt appeal with that absence

* BIG FELLA THANKS has ran once this season
* Horses doing that with 9 + career starts won 7 races
* They all had form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 races though
* Those like BIG FELLA THANKS that didnt were 0-20
* None ran this year in a Non Handicap either
* Statistically I cant match him to a winner
* My main doubt is whether he has the Class to win
* I Looked at past winners with No Grade 1 or Grade 2 form
* Those with 9 or more career starts doing that were 1-41
* The only winner was 40/1 shock Sibton Abbey in 1991
* He was younger as well and overall I am unimpressed

* PANDORAMA is a 7yo seasonal debutant
* Debutants aged 7 like him with Grade 1 form were 3-14
* These 3 winners had 4-5-6 chase starts
* PANDORAMA only has 3 Chase starts
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* That makes him less experience than any recent winner
* He has won all 3 of his Chase starts though
* Lack of Chasing experience is his biggest problem
* He also has to prove he stays this far as well

* MADISON DU BERLAIS is exposed unlike most winners
* He did win this when exposed though in 2008
* With less weight this year I dont ignore his chance
* I can match him to any past winners now though
* No past winner came from a Hurdles race either
* I will be surprised if he wins again

* BURTON PORT is a 6yo seasonal debutant
* The only recent winner like that was in 2006
* That winner had Grade 1 form like and won last time
* Horses sharing BURTON PORT’s profile were 1-2
* You can argue neither horse came from a Grade 2 chase
* No past winner came from a Grade 2 Chase first time out
* Take 6 year old seasonal debutants from Grade 2 Chases
* There were 2 horses with that profile in the last 18 years
* These 2 horses finished 7 + F
* As a rule 6 year old debutants with Grade 1 form are fine
* BURTON PORT has the correct exposure as well
* He is a small horse though and isnt guaranteed to stay
* BURTON PORT is a net positive though

* HEY BIG SPENDER won  first time out this year
* No winner did that from a Non Handicap Though
* He has yet to prove he stays this far
* He has fallen twice in his last 3 Chase starts as well
* Only 1 year ago he was in Novice Handicap Chases
* I cant rule him out but he doesnt offer enough

SHORTLIST

* WEIRD AL has run this season in a Non Handicap Chase
* No horse running this year came from a Non Handicap
* WEIRD AL has only ran 6 times under rules
* Horses with 1 run this year and under 9 career starts won 2 races
* None came from 2m 4f as he has to do
* Both winners came from Handicap Chases and he doesnt
* None were aged 7 like he was as well
* I cant rule him out but I cant match him exactly
* His 4 Chase wins came in fields of 4 5 5 6 runners
* This will be a much different test for him

* CARRUTHERS is given a chance at 25/1
* He didnt run that well in his seasonal debut
* Being Unplaced that makes him unlike any past winner
* He was beaten 23 lengths last time out
* However his chance is similar to the  2008 winner
* Madison Du Berlais won this in 2008 from the same race
* Although Madison Du Berlais placed in his prep run
* He was beaten 25 lengths that day less than Carruthers
* That was in the same Ascot race which is interesting
* CARRUTHERS is the same age as he was
* He also has far less weight as well
* I dont see a reason why CARRUTHERS cant win
* He does look a small field horse but thats unproven
* Throw out his Cheltenham runs and that improves it
* Throw out his Cheltenham runs and his seasonal debuts
* His record then becomes W 2 W W W W W 2
* As a smaller horse he’ll be much better suited to a lightweight
* I think CARRUTHERS is worth shortlisting

Todays Suggested Bets

Newbury 3.05

CARRUTHERS 20/1 each way
Sky VC Tote

Best Wishes

Guy

Posted under Major Horse Races

We head off to Ascot this week for our free Saturday horse racing tip.

This is just a small extract from a much more comprehensive analysis of todays racing we provide to full members over at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

ASCOT 3.10

Carey Group Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 2m1f

7/2 Woolcombe Folly, 4/1 Cockney Trucker, 9/2 Noble Alan
7/1 Consigliere, 7/1 Pickamus, 7/1 Tatenen, 15/2 King Edmund 20/1 Piraya.

This is a Class 2 Handicap Chase. I looked at the 58 similar Class 2 Handicaps in November between 2m and 2m 2f to get an idea of what has been winning these races. Horses in 58 races that dropped from 2m 5f or more with 1 run that season were 0-21 and that puts me off TATENEN. I dont think PICKAMUS or KING EDMUND did enough last time
out. The issue with COCKNEY TRUCKER apart from the
ground possibly being too soft is his absence. I have found  an 8yo Novice Chase winner like him but that horse had a far more recent run and won a Cheltenham race and he has only won a Huntingdon Chase and 63 days ago and that is not enough for me. I dont fancy PIRAYA at 2 Miles first
time out. He drops 14f in distance and got round at Aintree
in the Grand National so 2m first time out is asking a lot.
I looked at seasonal debutants with 13 or more career starts and those without form in a Grade 1 race had a 1-20 record. Thats something CONSIGLIERE faces and considering that winner had far less weight and he starts the year on a stiff rating I think CONSIGLIERE is up against it first time out. WOOLCOMBE FOLLY is 7 coming from a Novice Chase
last season. Horses with that profile and at least 9 runs like him had a 1-3 record. These 3 horses finished W 2 3 and it makes WOOLCOMBE FOLLY a positive much as the one
winner in that came from 2m 5f and he doesnt.

NOBLE ALAN has a decent profile

* Horses aged 7
* Won a Handicap Chase last time out
* 1 or 2 runs this season
* Form in a Grade 1 race before
* Coming from 17f or shorter
* Horses with that profile had a 5-8 record
* They finished W W 4 W 2 W 2 W

Selection Noble Alan 4/1 at various inc ladbrokes, coral, bet365 , paddypower

Posted under horse racing tips

Yesterday’s client message focussed on the 2pm at Sandown
and both horses dissapointed. Not too bothered about the race
Ace of Spies ran in 7th as he was a big priced outsider
and it was an optimistic shout. I was bothered about a
disgraceful ride that EQUULEUS PICTOR ran. I dont
think the horse was doing his best. My view is that he
was deliberately stopped from winning. It’s all too easy
to say that after a loser but thats my impression. The
horse drifted ominously in the betting. He was the one
horse that missed the break. Within a furlong Daryll
Holland switched him to the far side of the track well
known to be the slowest part of the course. He raced
there isolated away from the action and only when he
had conceded a lot of ground did he try and faked the
impression he was racing. At the very best it was one
of the most Naive and stupid rides I have witnessed
in a long time. At worst he was stopped and that has
to be my view. In the end pleased I didnt make him a
full bet. Perhaps with the horse so well backed in the
morning connections missed their price. I might just
be completely wrong but if you havent seen the race
yet its worth a look. I’d be surprised if most people
didnt agree with me that the ride was very suspicious.

If any of you have your own comments on that race
feel free to post them below.

On to today

DONCASTER 3.40

Bet On Breeders Cup At totesport.com
Wentworth Stakes (Listed Race)
(CLASS 1) (3yo+) 6f

5/1 Inler, Mac´s Power, 9/1 Tax Free, 10/1 Doncaster Rover
10/1 Hitchens, 10/1 Kaldoun Kingdom, 12/1 Croisultan
14/1 Cheveton, 16/1 R Woody, 20/1 Angel´s Pursuit
20/1 Anglezarke, 20/1 Mirza, 20/1 Russian Spirit
25/1 Enderby Spirit, 25/1 Icelandic, 33/1 Fullandby
40/1 Doric Lady, 40/1 Esuvia, 100/1 Great Charm.

* This is a Listed race over 6f
* Doncaster has had 20 renewals of this race
* There are a few angles that could narrow this down
* All past winners were aged 7 or lower
* All past winners had at least 3 runs that season
* Horses beaten 10 + lengths last time were 0-67
* No horse aged 3 or 4 won if beaten 6 + lengths last time
* Horses from 5f races struggled
* None were female and None came from 5f handicaps
* Horses from 7f races had a weak 1-71 record
* 3 year olds are weak and none came from handicaps
* There are 3 horses that pass these angles
* MAC´S POWER – DONCASTER ROVER -HITCHENS

Selection –  MAC’S POWER each way

Currently 11/2 at blue sq

or see http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2010-11-06/doncaster/15-40/betting/

Posted under horse racing tips