Saturday Tip At Beverley

I have a selection today for full members which runs in the 4.20 at Beverley
Just to keep full members happy I will duck posting it up here.

Another race I have a few shekels on myself is discussed below.

In the 5.30 I have negatives in the race
and probably too many shortlisted for comfort but
I have a bit on FEAR NOTHING at 14/1 and also a
bit on old friend/foe DESERT STRIKE who has two
reasonable excuses on his last two runs.

B e v e r l e y  5.30

7/2 Verinco, 9/2 Ingleby Star, 5/1 Yurituni, 6/1 Alis Aquilae 8/1 Northern Dare,
10/1 Desert Strike, 10/1 Silvanus 12/1 Fear Nothing, 12/1 Ryedane, 33/1 Divertimenti.

* This is a 5f Handicap for 0-77 rated horses
* There are 533 similar races in May and June
* VERINCO – His absence of 59 days is a problem
*  No exposed horse overcame that with 1-2 runs this year
* YURITUNI didnt strike me as safe
* She won at 6f last time and drops to 5f
* Thats hard enough to win and she is an exposed filly
* DIVERTIMENTI – Looks vulnerable
* ALIS AQUILAE has a weak profile
* Very few lightly raced seasonal debutants won
* None were as old as he is either
* RYEDANE – Not a negative but better profiles exist
* FEAR NOTHING – 1 similar winner
* NORTHERN DARE – Shortlistable
* DESERT STRIKE – Good profile
* SILVANUS – Good profile
* INGLEBY STAR – Solid profile

SELECTIONS

DESERT STRIKE 12/1 Win Bet   Ladbrokes Paddy Power betfred
FEAR NOTHING 12/1 Each Way   available almost everywhere

Posted under horse racing tips

Goodwood Horse Racing Tip

Goodwood 2.15

7/2 Parisian Pyramid, 5/1 Take Ten, 6/1 Lui Rei
15/2 Dungannon, 15/2 Fathsta, 8/1 Crown Choice
11/1 Lutine Bell, 12/1 Love Delta, 14/1 Spirit Of Sharjah
16/1 Everymanforhimself, 16/1 Slip Sliding Away
20/1 Rowe Park, 25/1 Corporal Maddox.

This is a Class 2 Handicap over 6f. There are 40
similar races at this time of year. I want to take
on the 4 year old seasonal debutants today.

* May has seen 272 Class 2 Handicaps
* Thats 272 Class 2 Handicaps at Every Distance
* There were 36 seasonal debutant winners aged 4
* 35 of these had 12 or fewer career starts
* Those that had 13 or more career starts were 1-65
* That winner had Pattern Class form.
* The 4 year old debutants with 13 + runs struggled
* TAKE TEN fails that with 17 career starts
* Starting the year on a career high mark he isnt for me
* LOVE DELTA fails this statistic with 18 runs
* SLIP SLIDING AWAY also fails this statistic
* He has it all to do from his draw anyway
* ROWE PARK is wrong aged 8 from 5f
* LUTINE BELL – Badly drawn and poor last run
* CORPORAL MADDOX didnt do enough last time
* SPIRIT OF SHARJAH comes out badly from an 8f race
* EVERYMANFORHIMSELF – doesnt offer enough
* FATHSTA is exposed and comes from a 7f race
* With 1-2-3 runs this year there were 2 similar winners
* Both had low weights though and he has 10st
* On a Career high mark it may be too much for him
* CROWN CHOICE – Respected but below par last time
* All similar horses that won did more last time out
* DUNGANNON is 4 and has 1 run this season
* Similar horses had  2-59 Record
* Both winners had more runs than he does
* None ran in the past fortnight (0-23) like him
* DUNGANNON is not far away but not quite right
* PARISIAN PYRAMID won this race last year
* He is exposed and drops from 7f with 2 runs this year
* I found 1 winner like him who ran much better last time
* PARISIAN PYRAMID may not have done enough

S e l e c t i o n

* LUI REI comes from 5f but happy with that
* His recent run makes all the difference
* He has been shaping up very well recently
* Impressive last time on tape he looks ready to win

Posted under horse racing tips

Bet At Thirsk

T h i r s k 3.15

7/2 Dream Win, 7/2 Extraterrestrial, 9/2 Mountain Cat
11/2 Daring Dream, 13/2 Academy Blues, 10/1 Chosen Forever
12/1 Champagne Style, 16/1 Without Prejudice, Aerodynamic.

This is a Mile Handicap. I looked at all of these races and
I feel EXTRATERRESTRIAL is questionable as favourite.
He is well handicapped but exposed horses aged 6 or more
with 1 run this year coming up in trip had a 1-42 record in
254 similar races. That sole winner had a recent race and
he has been off 41 days and I see him as unsafe. That said
Do Not lay him. Not when well handicapped and when we
have a host of miserable profiles. DARING DREAM fails
similar angles. MOUNTAIN CAT is unsafe winning after
an absence at his age. DREAM WIN is the wrong age for
a lightly raced debutant. CHOSEN FOREVER has a long
absence. My best profile is ACADEMY BLUES. He was
below par last time but had excuses when beaten at Ascot
and I found 3 winners like him which is more than I can
say for any others. ACADEMY BLUES is my selection.

10/1 each way at bet365, BoyleSports , Coral

Guy

Posted under horse racing tips

Lingfield 4.55

More Live Football At Totesport.com Handicap
(Turf) (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85) 7f

9/2 Bowmaker, 11/2 Den´s Gift, 13/2 Space Station
8/1 Buxton, 8/1 Wilfred Pickles, 10/1 Free For All
10/1 Seek The Fair Land, 12/1 Red Yarn, 14/1 Aldermoor
16/1 Leadenhall Lass, 16/1 Nezami, 16/1 Slugger O´toole
20/1 Aye Aye Digby.

* This is a 7f Handicap for horses rated 0-84
* There are 156 similar races at this time of year
* You want a high draw in these races
* Since 2008 there were 23 Handicaps here with 9 + runners
* Horses drawn in stalls 1-2-3 had a poor 1-73 record
* Recent winners came from these stalls
* 11-5-16-12-18-6-14-10-11-15-17-8-10
* AYE AYE DIGBY is out drawn 1
* No exposed horse won absent more than 7 months
* ALDERMOOR doesnt appeal in stall 2
* He is an exposed debutant and may need the run
* SLUGGER O´TOOLE has a poor draw in stall 3
* SLUGGER O´TOOLE is exposed and first time out
* RED YARN is not drawn well in stall 4
* She is a 4yo filly racing first time out
* 4yo fillies doing that with 7 + runs had a 0-38 record
* FREE FOR ALL is 4 and last ran in a Maiden last year
* Horses doing that with 2 or more runs were 0-15
* I don’t like her inexperience or his stable
* LEADENHALL LASS is a mare with 1 run this year
* Mares with 1 run this season have a 2-61 record
* None of these won or placed last time out
* She find it hard to follow up with just 1 run
* She won a small field 0-74 last time and this is better
* BOWMAKER has a good draw but a questionable profile
* I looked at 4yo Males with under 13 career starts
* BOWMAKER is 4 and has only raced 7 times
* Those 4 year olds with 1-2-3 runs that year were 2-73
* Not a good record and both winners had Class 2 form
* Those like BOWMAKER who didnt were 0-48
* NEZAMI is respected despite being underraced
* I cant find a similar winner his age
* Not exposed with 1 run this year and an absence
* I Suspect he will need 1 more run this season
* WILFRED PICKLES is 5 and drops down in distance
* No problem doing that but most winners had more backclass
* He has no form beyond this class and it hurts his chance
* So far he has lost in all 15 races on turf
* All came from lower handicap marks as well
* His 42 day absence hurts him as well
* I also wonder if the ground may be too quick
* Given all that and stall 5 of 13 he isnt for me
* BUXTON is fine statistically
* I just question whether he is up to this class
* Most of his runs/wins are against slightly weaker horses
* He is up in class today as well
* One or two may have more talent
* He seems to need to go round a bend as well

SHORTLIST

* DEN´S GIFT has a decent profile
* He is 7 with 3 runs this year running well last time
* I found 3 winners with his profile
* All 3 did have a bit less weight
* He is also 0-19 on Grass and has one of the weaker riders
* I see him as shortlistable though

* SPACE STATION is a 5yo male down from 8f
* SPACE STATION was well beaten last time 5 days ago
* He caught the eye last time but he often does
* I ran his profile carefully
* I found 1 similar winner with slight differences
* That winner had just over a weeks break not under
* That winner had less weight as well
* He didnt come from the sand either
* He isnt that well handicapped either
* He will also have to make sure he runs prominently
* He could throw away a good draw if he doesnt

* SEEK THE FAIR LAND has a strong profile
* Male 5 year old exposed with 2 runs this season
* Coming from a 7f handicap with Class 2 backclass
* I found 4 similar winners with that profile
* Those not beaten more than 10 lengths were best
* Those not winning last time were best
* Similar horses had a 2-5 record
* All his wins are on Sand but hes had few turf oppurtunities
* Last time on Grass he was 3rd in a 0-95 Handicap
* That was a much better race and he was out of the weights
* Absent more than 10 weeks before that race as well
* SEEK THE FAIR LAND has a serious chance

SEEK THE FAIR LAND 8/1    Sky   s james

Win Bet

Posted under horse racing tips