Newmarket Free Racing Tip

I normally push hard on Saturday and do an expansive
message with a large number of previews. I’m taking it
much slower today. I’ve reduced the previews today to
only ten for Full members and I haven’t pushed that hard
on the analysis.

We had a nice winner on the free horse betting blog
last Saturday with an easy win for Baltimore Clipper
advised here at 9/1

I am glad to see a few of you registered here on the blog bothered to
add a few comments of thanks.

Anyhow onto today’s racing tip.

N e w m a r k e t   2.50

5/1 Roger Sez, 11/2 Piranha, 6/1 Mention
7/1 Imelda Mayhem, 7/1 Nearly A Gift, 15/2 Ballyea
8/1 Correct, 9/1 My Lucky Liz, 16/1 Judas Jo
20/1 Redair, 25/1 Princess Banu.

This is a Fillies Nursery over 6f. There are only 3 of these races in July and August all being the renewals of this race so nothing much to help us with here. I will list my trends from these three races. I can tell you now that No horses pass all 6 or my trends so we wont have an ideal type here.

* All 3 winners had 4-5-6 career starts
* All 3 winners ran within 2 weeks
* All 3 winners had form in Class 2 and no higher
* All 3 winners were beaten last time out
* All 3 winners ran within 10 lengths of the winner last time
* None of the 3 winners came from Handicaps

MENTION passes all stats except one and I find it interesting he comes from Newbury and the 5f Super Sprint. Two of the  Three past winners did exactly the same. I think she looks a well treated horse off 80. She will appreciate the 6f. She was drawn in the wrong place at Newbury and was murdered later on in the race when badly hampered and that cost her several places. I think she has an outstanding chance of winning this. My danger would be MY LUCKY LIZ

Selection – MENTION

7/1 at Coral bet365 William Hill

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

Clip The Bookmakers At Salisbury

S a l i s b u r y   8.10

5/2 Undulant Way, 6/1 Reset City, 8/1 Albeed
8/1 Issabella Gem, 8/1 Sunny Future, 8/1 Tropical Bachelor
10/1 Baltimore Clipper, 10/1 Drawn Gold, 10/1 Now What
14/1 Ugalla.

* This is a 14f Handicap for 0-76 rated horses
* There are 116 similar races at this time of year
* Horses with 1 run this year struggled in 116 races
* No Mares have won with 1 run this year
* RESET CITY has that against her and isnt for me
* She is gambled and from a significant stable
* She could easily defy the stats and win this race
* I see a better option and I find her too riSky
* UGALLA also fails that and looks vulnerable
* ALBEED is a 4yo filly well beaten last time out
* Fillies aged 4 beaten 10 + lengths last time were 2-34
* None of these had 13 or more runs as she does
* ALBEED has a shaky profile
* TROPICAL BACHELOR has a chance but not for me
* Not when exposed and just two runs this season
* NOW WHAT is a 4yo filly absent over a month
* Those with 7 or more runs and that profile were 1-13
* That winner had more backclass than she does
* She isnt a negative but she is not for me
* UNDULANT WAY is a 3yo filly
* There are 3yo fillies winning these 14f races
* None however came from 11f or shorter
* UNDULANT WAY is not a negative
* She does have to do something no other 3yo filly did
* ISSABELLA GEM is a 4yo filly with 9 + runs
* Those coming from 14f or shorter won 5 races
* Only 1 had 1-2-3 runs that season like her
* She is not a negative but I wasnt too impressed
* She has the least experienced jockey in the race
* DRAWN GOLD is an exposed 7yo
* He only has 3 runs this season
* He lacks enough backclass to be a safe choice
* SUNNY FUTURE – Respectable and shortlistable

S e l e c t i o n

BALTIMORE CLIPPER only has a 0-73 class field
to beat. I think there is a good chance he could beat
this average Class 5 field. He won a better class race
as a 3yo. He was no worldbeater but he showed he is
at least good enough to win a race like this. He had
some problems last year with Ulcers but that’s now
behind him. I noted Paul Cole saying earlier in the
year that he had improved a lot over the winter. I
watched him enter and pull out of a few races with
the ground going against him. When he did race in
June had badly needed his seasonal debut. He then
went to Salisbury and ran much better. That was a
0-85 handicap much better than this and he wasnt
fit that had and was only beaten 4 lengths. He had
his 3rd run at Sandown. Starting 25/1 in a Classier
race than this he fiished 4th. He wasnt unlucky in
this race but he was hampered and ran on strongly
doing his best work late. He has improved on each
of his runs this year. Last time out swings it for me.
He started 18/1 on a Grade 1 track at Newbury. It
was a better class of race. KEYS won the race and
came out yesterday to win again. It was absolutely
no disgrace to finish 4th that day. He has ran well
enough to win this race on his last 3 starts. This is
a decent drop in class today. The ground looks ok
and has escaped the rain. He is a good age and has
a recent run. Given his price I feel he is a good bet.

Selection

BALTIMORE CLIPPER       Each Way

9/1 at many bookmakers including
BoyleSports , vc , William Hill , Sky, bet365

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on July 23, 2011

Ripon Horse Racing Tip

The problem today is serious rain is coming and
said to be hitting everywhere. I have to produce
the message knowing that the ground will change
everywhere. There is no way of knowing just how
much rain there will be or when it will fall so this
is going to be the single biggest issue of the day.

It will mean lots more non runners later on top
of several already pulled out. Plenty of opinions
in lots of races today. Done what I can despite a
lack of knowledge about what will run. Its one of
those messages to slowly navigate through. Dont
be afraid to overrule some selections if evidence
later shows that to be sensible. The weather does
not make it safe or sensible to go with a strong
stake today.

Perhaps unpredictable as a race but the 4.30pm at
Ripon interested me. I wasnt convinced about the
favourite and I felt the bet was BLUE DEER as
an improver from a stronger stable with entries
all over the place and bred to appreviate softer
ground. I felt he was worth a bet around 11/2.

R i p o n  4.30

5/2 Arrivaderci, 6/1 Blue Deer, 17/2 Song Of Parkes
9/1 Decadence, 9/1 Eeny Mac, 10/1 Lady Platinum Club
12/1 Cottam Stella, 12/1 Gambatte, 12/1 Grazeon Again
12/1 Spinatrix, 14/1 Roman Ruler, 16/1 Bahamian Jazz
25/1 Ivy And Gold.

This is a Maiden Handicap over 6f. This race has 18
renewals and being a “Maiden” handicap its best seen
in isolation from other races. I didnt like the look of
favourite ARRIVADERCI as a 3yo filly coming from
a 5f race when inexperienced and having so few races
this season and I would look elsewhere. For the same
reasons I would also oppose COTTAM STELLA too.
No past winners of this dropped from a Mile or more
so SONG OF PARKES from 8f and DECADENCE as
a horse from a 10f race look vulnerable. These would
be my main negatives in an open looking races. I feel
LADY PLATINUM CLUB and EENY MAC have to
be seriously considered. So to does BLUE DEER who
comes from a good stable and a horse entered all over
the place this week.  EENY MAC who looks likely to
appreciate the drop in class and track and I was very
tempted by him but an inexperienced winnerless pilot
puts me off him. BLUE DEER looks the one to me.

Selection – BLUE DEER 6/1 bet 365
If that goes or 365 have limited you to penny stakes as they tend to do..
11/2 available at Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Sky

Live prices at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-07-16/ripon/16-30/betting/

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

TotePool Handicap At Ascot

Apache Glory won well for us last weekend at 6/1 advised.

Today there are a lot of short priced favourites in handicaps
I have made negatives today so it should be interesting.
I wont get them all right but there are several of these.
In the 2.30 at Ascot I think MACS POWER has a big
chance against a bad favourite. Although admittedly it
is a bit contradictory I think my negative RITUAL is
actually a sensible place bet at evens and I plan to go
for a place bet on him and win bet on MACS POWER
rather than the other option MACS POWER eachway.

A s c o t   2.30

5/1 Ritual, 7/1 Mac4s Power, 8/1 Dungannon
9/1 Piazza San Pietro, 10/1 L4ami Louis, 12/1 Johannes
12/1 R Woody, 12/1 Racy, 12/1 Secret Witness, 14/1 Baby Strange
14/1 Courageous, 14/1 Imperial Guest, 16/1 Lutine Bell 16/1 Mon Brav,
16/1 Singeur, 25/1 Edge Closer
25/1 Noble Citizen, 33/1 Below Zero, 33/1 Tamagin.

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 6f
* RITUAL has a bad profile from a 5f race
* He is 4 and only has 1 run this season
* Horses from 5f races aged 4 were 0-32
* No horse came from 5f without 5 runs that year
* I will be surprised if Ritual wins this
* MON BRAV is a negative aged 4 from 5f (0-32)
* RACY is a negative  aged 4 from 5f (0-32)
* L4AMI LOUIS is wrong as a 3yo
* None won with under 7 runs or 4 this year
* L4AMI LOUIS doesnt have that and is weak
* BABY STRANGE – Wrong from a 5f race
* R WOODY is underraced for a 4yo with 13 + runs
* All similar 4 year olds needed 5 + runs that season
* COURAGEOUS – Needs more runs down from 7f
* JOHANNES – His age are weak and he isnt right
* PIAZZA SAN PIETRO – Can’t dismiss him but unsafe
* I’d be worried about the ground for him
* IMPERIAL GUEST – Wanted a better last run
* LUTINE BELL – Small chance but ground worries
* SINGEUR – I liked him more than his profile
* I Couldnt match him to any winners though
* DUNGANNON is 4 and won last time out
* The 4 year olds doing that did have more runs
* They had more runs that season as well
* If I am strict then DUNGANNON falls short
* SECRET WITNESS – Hard to read. Feels a big ask
* MAC4S POWER has to be a big positive
* I’d worry he is handicapped a bit too harshly
* Like his profile and he must go close

S E L E C T I O N

I have Ritual down as a negative but he is clearly a highly
regarded horse from outstanding connections. There lacks
a lot of strong profiles here as well and that tells me it will be too riSky to lay Ritual.
I am selecting an alternative but  it strikes me that with 4 places available
Ritual is going to be about 10/11 to 11/10 to be placed in the race and with  a
questionable field that may not be a bad price.
He could easily get beaten and place and the statistics to work out.
That seems a fair price to me.
It would even tempt me in a split stake bet with Ritual to place and MAC’S POWER being the main selecton in the race.

Coming in a touch now but 4/1 Mac’s Power available in several spots, bet365, PaddyPower , Ladbrokes, VC etc

Posted under horse racing tips

Leicester Racing Tip

Some quick thoughts on L e i c e s t e r   3.20

* This is a Fillies Handicap just short of 10f
* Leicester has 3 past renewals of this race
* There are 76 similar races elsewhere
* Noted all 3 winners of this race had at least 4 runs that year
* Noted there were several here with just 1 run this year
* In 76 races I found 4 winners with just one run that year
* None had 13 or more runs and KEN4S GIRL fails that
* Dont like her aged 7 with 1 run and a career high mark
* GALE GREEN – GOLDEN DELICIOUS are wrong types
* No horse won with 1 run this year from 8f or shorter
* EVENING DRESS fails that
* HAYAKU also fails that as well
* BALLETLOU doesnt interest me first time out
* Horses aged 4 with 13 + runs won 10 races
* None had just 1-2-3 runs that year (0-22)
* ASHKALARA fails that and wouldnt be my choice
* SING SWEETLY technically fails that same angle
* I would ignore that as she has been shaping well
* SING SWEETLY could be the forgotten horse here
* She is unsafe but she is far too big at 16/1
* COSMIC MOON is 3 and drops from a 12f race
* The only 3yo’s doing that had more runs that season

S h o r t l i s t

* NIGHT LILY is exposed and comes from 8f
* Not a good record from similar horses
* None won without a run in the past 2 weeks
* She also has to prove she stays this far
* She is well handicapped and well raced this year
* That counts for plenty so she is shortlistable
* BOLLIN DOLLY is not right statistically aged 8 from 12f
* No horse aged 6 or more won coming from 12f
* She did win the race last year and is well handicapped
* She is also well raced this year
* Those factors get her on the shortlist
* SING SWEETLY is shortlistable for earlier reasons
* APACHE GLORY won a 3yo handicap last time
* With 5-6 runs and 46 runs this year she is like 2 winners
* APACHE GLORY is a positive

SELECTION

APACHE GLORY – Win Bet 6/1 betfred s james Coral
SING SWEETLY – Win Bet 16/1 bet365 William Hill

 

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips