Racing Tip For Newmarket

N e w m a r k e t   4.25

7/4 Jet Away, 3/1 Dux Scholar, 9/2 Retrieve
6/1 Slumber, 12/1 Honour System, Dangerous Midge
14/1 Mantoba, 16/1 Classic Punch.

I have never done this race before. Think I know
why as its a race that gets mixed up with a similar
race. Its a 10f Listed race for all aged horses. Not
much I can do here. I have a decent profile I like
so will go with him. Some of these are very hard
to rate. Not sure several are safe with only 1 run
in months. I can’t tell how fit they are and to be
fair there are past winners doing that. Giving up
on profiles that beat me but I do have one decent
profile here and thats my choice DUX SCHOLLAR.

* DUX SCHOLAR has the best profile
* Horses aged 3 coming from a Conditions race
* Running over 8f 9f 10f last time out
* Running within a Month
* Between 7 and 12 career runs
* Between 4 -5 -6 runs that season
* There were 3 horses with that profile
* They finished W W W
* The winners in 1994 2000 2001

Selection DUX SCHOLAR

11/4 in several spots including Paddy Power blue sq bet365 vc

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on October 29, 2011

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Saturday Free Blog Racing Tip

N e w b u r y   2.45

7/2 Al Kazeem, 7/2 Beaten Up 9/2 Mohedian Lady
6/1 Barbican, 13/2 French Navy 20/1 Theology
25/1 Vulcanite.

The St Simon Stakes is a Group 3 race over 12f for all aged
horses. There are 21 renewals of this race since 1991.
I see THEOLOGY one to oppose and surely vulnerable coming
from a 2m race. Just one winner did that and only two past
winners dropped in trip at all. Horses from 13f or further
on their latest starts struggled. BARBICAN looks vulnerable
as he won at 14f last time and has to come back in trip.
I feel VULCANITE should be opposed down in trip as well.
None of the past 21 winners were like BEATEN UP who has just
2 career starts. The least experienced past winner of this
in the last 21 years had 4 runs. No male horse has won it
with under 5 runs and BEATEN UP with just two runs looks
just too riSky. FRENCH NAVY didnt come out well as he has a
heavy defeat last time to overcome and He is a 3yo going up
in distance and I want more runs this season for a horse with
that profile. I shortlist two horses.

* AL KAZEEM – Chances but 3yo fillies are better
* I’d like another run this year or a last run at 12f

Selection

MOHEDIAN LADY

* Fillies aged 3
* Coming from 12f last time out
* Between 3-4 runs that season
* Running within 10 weeks
* Similar horses had a 6-8 record
* MOHEDIAN LADY has that 6-8 record

I am going with her as 3yo fillies have a great record
and she has comfortably the best profile. Winning at
Newmarket last time she broke the track record. Not
really a positive for me. The Faster they go the less
chance they can repeat that form next time but how
that affects her I don’t know. I dont see a better bet
though and MOHEDIAN LADY appeals around 7/2

7/2 around earlier for full members but best price now
at time of posting on our free blog is 10/3 at Sky

PS Sky introduced a new £10 free bet offer the other day for new customers.
Interesting about it the fact that you do not need to
deposit any cash with them to get it.

 

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on October 22, 2011

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Ascot Champions Day Tip

I am no fan of Champions dayat Ascot
as races have been borrowed or stolen from other
tracks, run at different times of the season often
upgraded and that corrupts my angles and makes
it more difficult. I have done what I can however
and have found one for the free blog that looks a
touch over priced.

 

A s c o t   1.50

9/4 Opinion Poll, 5/2 Fame And Glory, 7/2 Times Up
16/1 Motrice, 20/1 Colour Vision, 25/1 Chiberta King
25/1 Darley Sun, 25/1 Nehaam, 33/1 Eternal Heart
40/1 Polly4s Mark.

This 2m Group 3 race is actually the Jockey Club Cup
which is always run at Newmarket. It has been stolen
by Ascot to start their Champions Day card. Whether
any trends hold up because of this I dont know. There
are only mixed angles here anyway. This race has been
dominated by horses coming from the Doncaster Cup
last time out. An incredible 11 of the last 20 winners
of this race came from that race. Any horse that ran
elsewhere last time comes out badly because this trial
race has dominated the race. Today OPINION POLL
and MOTRICE come from this trial. Against these 2
are the fact no 5 year olds like OPINION POLL won
from that race and no filly like MOTRICE did either
so its complicated. FAME AND GLORY comes here
from a 14f race and horses doing that have not done
that well. TIMES UP has to be considered but he has
never won a Group race before the both his main two
rivals have won Group 1-2 races between them. I feel
I should stay with the Doncaster Cup horses despite a
few reservations given above. Because of that and the
race moving to Ascot I see a shortlist of two horses.

OPINION POLL- MOTRICE

I wouldn’t rule MOTRICE out. She started favourite
for this race last year but was only 3yo filly and she
did well to finish second. This year she is fresher and
older and comes from the best trial race. She has not
got much to find with OPINION POLL who was just
1.5 lengths ahead of her last time. That day I had her
as a negative for various reasons. She cant be that far
behind OPINION POLL and given that she is 14/1 I
have to see her as value having started 7/4 in this last
year. I see OPINION POLL as a good saver. Maybe a
good place only bet as well as he should be right there
and easily makes the shortlist. Given the prices I feel
we should try and attack the better priced option here.

Selection – MOTRICE 14/1 +  Each Way

14/1 at 1/4 odds available at bet365 William Hill & PaddyPower

Nb beware a few other miserly bookmakers  only offer 1/5 th odds

Guy

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

Long Shot For York

M e s s a g e   T h o u g h t s

Mainly a Newmarket and York based message for full members today. Done lots of races at each track. I have probably gone a few places
I shouldn’t have done but I had a fair crack at both cards.

We will have some serious business at Chepstow again in
the next few months. One of my favourite tracks and no
doubt some fascinating battles to come. Today though is
probably a day to leave it alone here. Both Chepstow and
Hexham are pretty average cards. I have done a few little
National Hunt lines at both meetings. That opens up the
analysis but I have to say nothing excited me. It seems a
very bland piece of work and Knowing what both tracks
can and will offer in the future I am not interested today.

F r i d a y ‘s   S u m m a r y

Over the months and years I’m sure York has beaten me
more than not and I still rate it my worst track. Despite
that yesterday we finished a long way ahead and picked
it apart seemingly very easily and that contributed to a
very smart message. I thought I more than held my own
with the National Hunt business. I concentrated mainly
at York. Some very smart staking in the first two races
left us level when we could have gone behind. Shortlisted
the 3.05 winner but My choice was only 4th. There was
another setback in the Maiden. Late winners El Lail and
Trip The Light in a split stake bet made sure we had the
best of it at York. The main bet though was MUSNAD
each way at 8/1. He finished 2nd so a small profit on a
reasonably good bet. Before the race MUSNAD drifted
badly out to 16/1 and I was very concerned that he was
one of those bets that mysteriously sink without trace
and that fear increased when he came out in last place
at the start. Then to my surprise he ran his race and it
looked like he had won the race storming clear and he
went to as low as 1.06 in running. Sadly though he was
caught very late by another I shortlisted and we ended
up with only the place and a small profit. Overall that
was enough to contribute to a very decent message.

For Full Members my strongest bet today runs in the 4.40
at York.

You get immediate access to the full member area on joining
so if you were to join before 4.40 you can pick that up inside.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

Todays Free Saturday Tip

We are on a roll here on the free blog with winners at 18/1 and 6/1
over the past two weekends.

Winning runs mean little really however.
More important is that over a year profits add up to more than expendature.
Rather than post up a shortie here today to try and manipulate a three in a row sequence we are going for a highly speculative long odds selection on long term value principles.

N e w m a r k e t  2.05

5/4 Strong Suit, 9/4 Chachamaidee, 6/1 Maqaasid
12/1 Rimth, 20/1 Across The Rhine, 20/1 Giant Sandman
25/1 Elshabakiya, 25/1 Lechevalier Choisi.

* The Challenge Stakes is a Group race over 7f
* There are 21 renewals since 1990
* This is always an interesting Group race
* You want a horse with 5 and 14 career starts
* 19 of the last 21 winners had between 5 and 14
* Horses with 13 or more runs have struggled here
* ACROSS THE RHINE fails that and looks exposed
* GIANT SANDMAN is also too exposed from a 6f race
* CHACHAMAIDEE is on the borderline with 14 runs
* There are some factors about her I dislike
* CHACHAMAIDEE is a Filly
* No Fillies aged 4 or 5 have won this race and she is 4
* No fillies won with 13 or more runs
* No fillies won dropping from a  Mile like her
* CHACHAMAIDEE is not like any female winners
* There are just 3 winners that had 13 or more runs
* None of these dropped from a Mile
* CHACHAMAIDEE  doesnt seem safe
* MAQAASID is a 3yo filly as were 4 winners
* None however were absent more than 7 weeks
* MAQAASID has been absent over 10 weeks
* All fillies aged 3 had at least 6 runs that season
* MAQAASID only has 5 runs this year
* MAQAASID just falls short because of these issues
* LECHEVALIER CHOISI has a shaky profile
* He is 3 and has an absence
* No 3 year old with 9 + runs won with his absence
* He is also short on backclass as well
* RIMTH just falls short as a 3yo filly
* She has a lot of positives but two negatives
* All 3yo fillies had more runs that season than her
* They all achieved more than she did last time out

S h o r t l i s t

* STRONG SUIT is the highest rated horse here
* He is 3 and has a 74 days absence
* There were 10 winners aged 3
* None of these were absent 7 or more weeks
* That raises a doubt about STRONG SUIT
* STRONG SUIT has raced just 4 times this year
* Horses aged 3 with 1-2-3-4 runs this year are 1-39
* That was Kahal back in 1997
* He was lighter raced and had a recent race
* There is an argument against STRONG SUIT
* His absence and runs this year may leave him short
* His Class and rating demands he gets full respect

* ELSHABAKIYA was my 16/1 each way bet last Saturday
* She finished fast and came second at Ascot
* Fillies aged 3 have won 4 renewals of this race
* They all had 7-12 runs like her
* They all finished 1-2-3-4 last time out
* They all had 6-7-8 runs that season like her
* Similar horses had a 4-7 record in this race
* ELSHABAKIYA comes out very well
* She is similar to 2007 winner Miss Lucifer
* She came from the October Stakes just as she does
* Dont worry about the price
* This is a race that has seen several big shocks

Selection – ELSHABAKIYA 33/1 Each Way
Go with bet365 Ladbrokes or s james who pay 1/4 odds
33/1 also available at PaddyPower but they only pay out 1/5 odds

Best wishes
Guy

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

Private Service Message Sample

Several have asked how the message for the private members service differs from that which we post on the free blog here at about 1pm each Saturday.

This is best answered by example I guess.

On Saturday October 1st 2011 we posted here a snippet from the full message.

See said blog post at this link ==> http://www.horse-betting-blog.co.uk/horse-racing-tips/another-newmarket-winner/

( Art History the free tip Won )

Below however I have copied for you the much longer and detailed messages Full
Members received.

This is exactly as sent..spelling mistakes and all.

I have however added results for the races discussed in red.

It is also worth pointing out that full members get sent their message about 1hr before a free selection gets posted on horse betting blog here as we want to give them a fair chance to pick off any good early morning prices.

If you would like to join the service proper please visit

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

We do offer a very simple no quibble refund guarantee if you later change your mind.

=============================================

Mathematician 1075

No Strong Bet Today

T o d a y ‘s S e l e c t i o n

Ascot 5.00

ELSHABAKIYA 16/1

Each Way

2nd at 16/1 landing each way winnings

One bet today chosen from several options. We had

a 16/1 winner last Saturday and I have decided to go

with another big priced horse. A Day with too many

options really. It’s been a very good week. I thought

about an each way double Blanche Dubawi 5.20 with

Dubai Queen who runs in ELSHABAKIYA’s race but

I decided to go with the bigger prices and commit to

ELSHABAKIYA as I did have multile options there.

She is the riskiest best of my portfolio but also offers

us the most reward so I will take a chance at 16/1.

****************************************************

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Message Thoughts and Potential Bets

Most of the message is at Ascot and Newmarket as

I felt they offered the best angles. There are plenty

of races that throw up some interesting angles with

potential bets. Not all of these are welcome or bets

I’d want to have. These are all summarised below.

Newmarket 3.35 – ART HISTORY 5/1 Each Way Won

Ascot 3.50 – PASTORAL PLAYER 8/1 Each Way Won

Redcar 4.00 – BOGART 6/1 Won

Ascot 5.00 – ELSHABAKIYA 20/1 2nd

Ascot 5.00 – DUBAI QUEEN 4/1 Lost

Newmarket 5.20 – BLANCHE DUBAWI 3/1 Win Won

REDCAR

Poor card. Ignore almost all of it but I do have one

really interesting Draw stat in the 4pm race. There

is a warm favourite in Bannock heavily backed and

dominating the betting. Fascinating to see that He’s

drawn in Stall 22. I looked at every Redcar race in

the last 11 years. Thats every distance and all type

of races. There are 831 of these races and not once

has a horse won from Stall 21 or higher in any race.

I explained a bit more below but because of this and

a couple of other factors I am opposing him and I’d

look at Bogart as the sensible bet each way.

NEWMARKET

There are 5 previews at Newmarket today including

3 shorter priced horses. Not bothered about minnows

so ignoring those much as ENCKE (4.10) looks like

the strongest. I have two bigger priced options here.

Not convinced I should trust a Mark Johnston horse

up in trip but ART HISTORY is the only horse that

has a solid profile in the 3.35pm and he looks good

each way. The Boadecia Stakes at 5.20pm is not my

kind of race but my angles say BLANCHE DUBAWI

has by far the safest profile and looks one to consider.

ASCOT

Five previews at Ascot. I’ve chances in the opening

two races both competetive though. I’ve thrown my

best angles at a very hard 3.50pm handicap and the

end result was PASTORAL PLAYER 8/1 who could

well win this if he can stay the distance. The 5pm is

a race I always do well in. Some strong angles always

give me the winner on a shortlist. There are times I

have chosen wrongly from that shortlist and today’s

choice is difficult I have chosen ELSHABAKIYA at

16/1 as a horse I have to bet and DUBAI QUEEN as

the main selecton in that race as explained below.

T h u r s d a y ‘s M e s s a g e

Quiet day yesterday. Kept it low key knowing their

wasn’t much choice. My mentions didnt win and the

decision to go with low stakes was right especially as

Ascot got the better of me which I feared it might.

****************************************************

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S

N e w m a r k e t 1.50

6/4 Mizwaaj, 13/8 Campanology, 11/2 Al Wajba

10/1 Sheikh The Reins, 12/1 Switzerland, 33/1 Conowen

40/1 Papal Power.

This is a 6f Maiden for 2 year olds. I would happily ignore

the unraced SWITZERLAND and AL WAJBA as well as a

well beaten SHEIKH THE REINS and all the outsiders not

because they have bad profiles but because there are 2 here

with a seriou profiles. CAMPANOLOGY and MIZWAAJ

come from 7f Conditions races within the last month. All

horses with that profile had a brilliant 10-19 record and if you

chuck out horses at 12/1 and more that improves this

profile to a 10-12 record with all 12 getting placed. We do

have to choose between them. MIZWAAJ is lighter raced

but statistically that doesnt matter much. Its foolish to be assessing

CAMPANOLOGY as a maiden as he has already

won a race but was disqualified.

Its a close match with both looking decent. Marginal preference for CAMPANOLOGY.

Selection – CAMPANOLOGY 11/8 Won

A s c o t 2.05

4/1 Caledonia Lady, 5/1 My Propeller, 5/1 Stonefield Flyer

7/1 Hestian, 12/1 Rex Imperator, 14/1 Forevertheoptimist

14/1 Hexagonal, 16/1 Ponty Acclaim, 16/1 Pyman´s Theory

16/1 Royal Award, 20/1 Chunky Diamond, 25/1 Fanrouge

25/1 Miss Lahar, 40/1 Church Music, 50/1 Betty Fontaine

50/1 Signifer.

* The Cornwallis Stakes is a Group 3 race for 2yo’s over 5f.

* Ascot has 16 renewals of this race

* This is the only similar race at this time of year.

* The following Stats have worked out in this race

* All 26 horses that came via handicaps lost

* Horses beaten over 6 lengths last time were 0-48

* No maiden won this race

* No horse was absent more than 10 weeks

* Horses absent over a Month need to be Males

* They need to have under 6 runs

* Horses from 6f races all had 5 + runs

* No winners came down from 7f or more

* REX IMPERATOR – Wrong from 7f

* HESTIAN – Wrong from a handicap and draw not ideal

* MY PROPELLER has some statistical problems

* The only filly to win from 6f has far more runs

* That horse had ran much better last time than her

* In fact all 16 past winners ran better than her last time

* STONEFIELD FLYER has a long absence

* Horses absent a month from 5f races struggled

* None had 4 or more career runs like he does

* Stall 16 may not be helpfull either

* HEXAGONAL – respected from a good trial race

* His only flaw is all past winners had won before

* HEXAGONAL hasnt managed that. Respected

B e s t P r o f i l e

* CALEDONIA LADY looks good

* She ran in the Flying Childers as did many past winners

* She won the Roseberry Stakes at Ayr last time out

* That puts her very close to 2006 winner Alzerra

* CALEDONIA LADY has a good profile 3rd

N e w m a r k e t 2.25

10/11 Samitar, 11/2 Hazel Lavery, 10/1 Coplow

10/1 Wahylah, 14/1 Arsaadi, Buzkashi, 20/1 Aniseed

20/1 Glee, 25/1 Lost Highway, 33/1 Lemon Rock

33/1 Perfect Delight, 33/1 Roedean, 33/1 Soho Rocks

33/1 Tina´s Spirit, 50/1 Princess Caetani, Symphony Star

66/1 Party Line, 200/1 Itsonlymakebelieve.

This is a Fillies Trophy for 2 year olds over 7f. There are 25

Similar Class 2 races and my observations of these are below.

* In terms of the draw it looks quite complicated

* I think the Worst Draws are 15-16-17-18

* I’d avoid horses with 7 or more starts

* I’d avoid all horses beaten 6 or more lengths last time.

* Not much I can say really

* HAZEL LAVERY comes from a 7f Conditions race

* All 20 horses doing that lost

* COPLOW – ARSAADI have the same problems

* WAHYLAH looks shortlistable

* SAMITAR clearly sets the standard

* She was 2nd in a Group 1 only 7 days ago

* No horse has tried to win with her profile

* She will either outclass these on form

* Or the race will come too soon and she wont perform

* Thats impossible to know so we have to guess

* I think SAMITAR has the strongest chance

* Putting his chance into perspective

* She’s a similar price to Encke in the Maiden at 4.10

* I’d much rather bet Encke myself

* SAMITAR is still the selection though Won

A s c o t 2.40

2/1 Arctic Cosmos, 11/4 Lost In The Moment

7/2 Quest For Peace, 10/1 City Leader, 11/1 Nanton

16/1 Ted Spread, 16/1 Yaseer.

No real interest in the Cumberland Lodge stakes a poor

statistics race. ARCTIC COSMOS is well clear on ratings

but he hasnt ran in 385 days. Seasonal debutants struggled

in this and all similar races the only winner different than him.

I would be nervous about that profile. I am opposing him.

QUEST FOR PEACE looks unsafe with his absence as a lightly raced horse.

CITY LEADER doesnt look a fit profile. YASEER was well beaten last time

and I cant find a winner like him but his trainer has a 5-6 record in this race

so I erespect him. There is one horse I wanted to be with against the favourite.

LOST IN THE MOMENT is from the Ebor handicap and the 2006 winner

did exactly the same aged 4 and LOST IN THE MOMENT carried a

lot more weight as well and that makes him my choice.

Selection – LOST IN THE MOMENT Lost

N e w m a r k e t 3.35

11/4 Jameel, 11/2 Art History, 6/1 Topolski

13/2 Butler, 8/1 Incendo, 8/1 Warlu Way, 9/1 Greylami

16/1 The Betchworth Kid, 20/1 Red Anthem

25/1 Big Creek, 25/1 Itlaaq.

* This is a 12f Handicap for 0-100 rated horses

* There are 53 similar races at this time of year

* JAMEEL is very lightly raced

* We had 2 winners like him from Maidens

* Both came from 12f and he comes from 10f

* Neither had 1-2 runs that season

* I looked at 3 year olds from 10f races

* Those like JAMEEL with under 7 runs were 0-23

* Those like JAMEEL with under 7 that year were 0-22

* JAMEEL does have flaws in his profile

* TOPOLSKI had a superb season over hurdles last year

* He won all 3 and now returns back to the flat

* Long absence and I am far from convinced about him

* Horses like him score poorly and this is a hot race

* His connections say he is only 90% fit

* ITLAAQ and BIG CREEK didnt do enough last time

* RED ANTHEM may need more runs

* THE BETCHWORTH KID has been absent too long

* No exposed horse won without 7 + runs that season

* GREYLAMI fails that and looks short of runs

* INCENDO also fails that with 6 runs

* INCENDO is exposed and hasnt run in 2 weeks

* Similar horses struggled with a 2-91 record

* Both had more backclass and came from better races

* INCENDO didnt really do much for me

P o s s i b l e s

* BUTLER is 4 and well beaten over 12f last time

* WARNES WAY has the same problem

* Neither come out well on their latest starts

* I looked at horses aged 4 well beaten last time

* These horses score badly but there is hope there

* Last years winner of this overcame a similar problem

* If either bounce back they could be a threat

* Results show not many 4 year olds like them have

* Last years winner had a recent race

* Both horses have been absent over a Month

* I looked at horses aged 4 absent over a Month

* Those with 9 + runs had a 1-40 record

* That horse won down from the 14f Ebor

* BUTLER – WARNES WAY just come up short

S e l e c t i o n

* ART HISTORY is 3 and won at 10f last time

* I found 2 similar winners who were a close match

* ART HISTORY is a positive

* ART HISTORY Each Way 11/2 looks a solid bet Won

A s c o t 3.50

6/1 Smarty Socks,9/1 Hawkeyethenoo 10/1 Decent Fella

10/1 Golden Desert, 10/1 Pastoral Player 12/1 Joe Packet

Webbow, 14/1 Casual Glimpse Nasri 16/1 Imperial Guest

20/1 Atlantic Sport 20/1 Dream Eater, Parisian Pyramid

20/1 The Cheka 25/1 Al Khaleej, 33/1 Below Zero.

* This is a 7f handicap for horses rated 0-110

* Ascot has had 14 renewals of this race

* There has been 63 Similar races at other tracks

* The Draw should play some part in this race

* Looking at all similar races here over recent years

* I think the Draws to avoid are 1-2-3-4

* I would much rather have a higher draw

* I suspect Stalls 5 to 12 will be the ideal place to be

* Horses from 6f won 8 of the 68 races

* BELOW ZERO comes out badly from 6f

* No 3yo as exposed as him has won from 6f

* Exposed horses from 6f races had a poor 2-96 record

* They all had at least 5 runs that season

* HAWKEYETHENOO fails that with 4

* No Exposed horse from 6f lost by 4 + lengths last time

* HAWKEYETHENOO fails that

* If you take the 30 exposed winners

* Those with 1-2-3-4-5 runs that season were 0-45

* HAWKEYETHENOO fails that and is rejected

* PARISIAN PYRAMID also fails that

* IMPERIAL GUEST is exposed and from 6f

* Similar horses were 2-96 but none from a Conditions race

* ATLANTIC SPORT has the same problem

* None of the winners were aged 8 or more

* WEBBOW doesnt appeal as a 9 year old

* Not with a Months absence

* DREAM EATER is exposed and comes from an 8f race

* All similar winners had at least 7 runs that season

* DREAM EATER only has 4 runs and looks underraced

* If you take the 30 exposed winners

* Those with 1-2-3-4-5 runs that season were 0-45

* DREAM EATER fails that and is rejected

* Only 2 winners were aged 7 or more (2-52)

* None of these had more than 8st 12lbs

* SMARTY SOCKS fails that

* None won last time like SMARTY SOCKS

* SMARTY SOCKS has a career high mark and looks unsafe

* GOLDEN DESERT has a similar profile

* He is 7 and won a recent 7f race

* Horses winning within the past 2 weeks struggled

* Those with 13 or more career starts were 0-19

* GOLDEN DESERT fails that and isnt well drawn

* SMARTY SOCKS fails that statistic as well

* AL KHALEEJ is 7yo and we know these are 2-52

* None won with under 9 runs that season

* AL KHALEEJ only has 4 runs this year

* AL KHALEEJ looks underraced this year for his age

* JOE PACKET has a bad draw in Stall 2

* I find him unimpressive from a Listed race

* Very few winners come from Listed or Group races

* None did it as exposed as he is

* THE CHEKA is 5 and comes from 5f

* None of the horses that won like that had his weight

* None came from a Group race either

* Horses from Group races are unsafe and so is he

* CASUAL GLIMPSE is the only 3 year old

* Horses aged 3 with Listed or Group form before are 1-109

* That suggests he is the wrong type of 3yo

* Horses aged 3 from 8f races were just 2-67

* Those like him with 9 + runs were 0-35

* CASUAL GLIMPSE does not offer me enough

* DECENT FELLA is an unexposed 5yo

* Horses like that in 63 races were 0-32

* Thats a worry and DECENT FELLA is badly drawn

* He won a 7f handicap time and is absent 2 + weeks

* Horses with that profile were 1-29

* That winner was younger and different

* DECENT FELLA has a shaky profile

* NASRI is an exposed horse who won at 6f last time

* I found 1 similar winning at a different track

* I see him as a possible but not convinced with Stall 18

* He also comes from a 6f Conditions race

* No winners did that and he just fails to make the grade

Selection

* PASTORAL PLAYER is 4 and comes from a 6f race

* There were 2 winners doing that

* Both had Group 3 form and 13-20 runs like him

* PASTORAL PLAYER is therefore reasonable

* None like him won this race but two won elsewhere

* PASTORAL PLAYER could win this if he gets the 7f

PASTORAL PLAYER 8/1 Each Way Won

R e d c a r 4.00

2/1 Bannock, 5/1 Bogart, 9/1 Silverheels, 12/1 Excelette

12/1 Gold City, 14/1 Bear Behind, 14/1 Bop It

16/1 Place In My Heart, 20/1 Fulbright, 20/1 Imelda Mayhem

20/1 North Star Boy, 25/1 Bling King, 25/1 Parc De Launay

25/1 Vital Gold, 33/1 Es Que Love, 33/1 Evervescent

33/1 Free Zone, 33/1 Kool Henry, 50/1 Cockney Fire

50/1 Hidden Passion, 50/1 Jack Who´s He, 50/1 Monnoyer

66/1 The Penny Horse.

This is a Listed race for 2 year olds over 6f. Clearly hard

as ever to sort out. I want to oppose BANNOCK here and

have a variety of reasons to do this statistically and not.

* He has a 64 day absence which wont be easy to overcome

* In all similar races no horses overcae that when so well raced

* His Trainer has stated “He has missed work” due to a setback

* He has said he “might need the race” which must hurt him

* Maybe my best angle is that he is drawn in Stall 22

* One very interesting Statistic about the draw

* Since 2000 Redcar have had 831 races

* Thats every race any time of year at Every Distance

* Horses drawn 20 or higher were 1-94

* Horses drawn 21 or more were 0-45

* No horse has ever won a Redcar race drawn 21 +

* Not since 2000 anyway

* BANNOCK therefore has to be opposed

* I’d want an alternative

* BEAR BEHIND has the same problems with the draw

* BOP IT has a nasty absence

* No horse came from a Nursery absent as long as her

* PLACE IN MY HEART – Unsafe from 5f Auction maiden

* BOGART looks the solid each way bet

* I like him more than any others

Selection

BOGART 6/1 Each Way Won

N e w m a r k e t 4.10

10/11 Encke, 9/2 Good Morning Star, 9/2 Sadma

13/2 Commitment, 14/1 Valiant Girl, 14/1 Venegazzu

20/1 Sunley Pride, 25/1 Attraction Ticket, 25/1 Lazeez

25/1 Leitrim King, 33/1 Renegotiate, 66/1 Harry Buckle.

This is a 2yo Maiden over a Mile. I have looked at over

400 similar races at this time of year. The big negatives

are GOOD MORNING STAR and SUNLEY PRIDE as if

you look at horses beaten 10 + lengths last time out who

ran within 2 weeks you find a horrible 8-527 record and

those like GOOD MORNING STAR fillies had a 0-108

record. The choice may be between ENCKE and any of

the unraced horses like SADMU or COMMITMENT. I

see ENCKE as very likely to win having debuted well in

a hot maiden at Doncaster. With normal improvement

I would expect him to win a maiden like this one.

Selection – ENCKE Won

Bit of a Break now before the next preview. I have not

done the 4.35pm Seller at Redcar. If you want a bet on

a match bet I see SINATRAMANIA as a very good bet

to beat Pursuing in the match bet because I doubt fitness

of the latter and I see SINATRAMANIA as the winner.

2nd at 6/1 winning the match bet against Pursuing

A s c o t 5.00

9/4 Rainfall, 5/1 Marvada, 11/2 Dubai Queen

15/2 Flambeau, 17/2 Sharnberry 11/1 Crying Lightening

16/1 Elshabakiya 20/1 Theladyinquestion 25/1 Perfect Silence.

* The October Stakes is a fillies Listed race over 7f

* There has been 10 renewals of this race

* The winners of this race all fit similar patterns

* All 10 winners were 3 year olds (others 0-38)

* All 10 winners had under 10 career runs (others 0-70)

* The 10 winners had 8-5-8-3-7-5-9-8-7-6 previous races

* No past winner lost by 6 + lengths last time

* No past winner won last time out

* The 10 winners came from 6f-7f-8f in Class 3 or higher

* All 10 winners had 1 or 2 career wins

* This leaves 2 horses passing all the above angles

* ELSHABAKIYA – DUBAI QUEEN

* There are 24 similar Listed races elsewhere

* Exposed horses have a 0-37 record in these races

* PERFECT SILENCE fails that

* RAINFALL didnt appeal with just 2 runs this year

* Horses wih 1-2 runs that year and 5 + career runs were 0-31

* RAINFALL fails that

* She has 2 runs this year yet is 5 and well raced

* FLAMBEAU is 4 and has 10 career starts

* Horses aged 4 with 9 + runs were 1-59

* That horse had more runs this season than she does

* That winner also had Group 1 form as well and she doesnt

* THELADYINQUESTION lacks backclass for her profile

* She also loks underraced this year

* CRYING LIGHTENING only has 1 run since April

* She may be short of condition

* MARVADA – Minor flaws I see as forgiveable

* I would shortlist her but I have 3 others on the list

S h o r t l i s t

* SHARNBERRY – Good profile and respected

* ELSHABAKIYA – Sails through my strongest angles

* DUBAI QUEEN – Sails through my strongest angles

* DUBAI QUEEN is the obvious selection

* ELSHABAKIYA is too big a price to ignore

* Not keen DUBAI QUEEN is drawn 1

* Not keen ELSHABAKIYA is drawn 11

* With 11 runners I’d prefer a middle draw

* SHARNBERRY has the best draw of all of these

* She also has the most to prove as well

* The potential to choose wrong here is high

SELECTION

I have gone with ELSHABAKIYA.

2nd at 16/1 SP

N e w m a r k e t 5.20

11/4 Blanche Dubawi, 4/1 Rose Blossom, 11/2 Cochabamba

6/1 Sandslash, 8/1 Aneedah, 8/1 Anne Of Kiev

14/1 Gossamer Seed, Misplaced Fortune, 16/1 Amitola

25/1 Button Moon, 25/1 Ziraun.

* This is a Listed race over 6f for fillies

* There are only 8 past renewals of this race

* With no similar races we are in the Dark

* No winners were aged 6 or more

* No past winners had 21 or more career runs

* Every winner had at least 4 runs that season

* Every winner came from a Grade 1 track

* Every winner came from at least a Class 4 race

* None of the winners came from a 5f race

* This leaves 4 options

* COCHABAMBA – A little unsafe from 6f handicap

* ROSE BLOSSOM – The only 4yo winner had fewer runs

* GOSSAMER SEED – Impossible to read but basics are there

* BLANCHE DUBAWI has a smart profile

* 3 year olds are best and from Listed races

* Horses aged 3

* Coming from Listed Class Races

* At least 4 runs that season

* The following winners of this race had that profile

* 2010 2009 2008 2005 2004

* BLANCHE DUBAWI comes out best Won

A s c o t 5.35

7/2 Marygold, 9/2 Hot Sugar, 7/1 Sans Loi, 9/1 Forest Edge

9/1 Jack Of Diamonds, 10/1 Toffee Tart, 11/1 Little Rainbow

12/1 Golden Valley, 16/1 I´ll Be Good, 16/1 Our Cool Cat

16/1 Purley Queen, 20/1 Courtland Avenue, Kings Decree

20/1 Sheila´s Buddy, 25/1 Dream Whisperer

25/1 Our Phylli Vera, 28/1 Miss Conduct, Queen Of The Hop.

* This is a 2yo Conditions race over 6f
* There are only 12 similar races at this time of year

* I looked at every race over 6f here in 2011 with 11 + runners

* Winners were drawn 18 17 3 11 14 19 11

* I would be worried about very low drawn horses

* MARYGOLD doesnt look well drawn in stall 5

* I didnt like her anyway as horses from Nurseries are 2-94

* Both winners had more backclass than she does

* HOT SUGAR doesnt look well drawn either

* I´LL BE GOOD looks badly drawn as well

* It took him 9 runs to win a maiden 4 more than any other

* GOLDEN VALLEY also comes from a Nursery

* TOFFEE TART is badly drawn and from a Nursery

* JACK OF DIAMONDS comes from a 7f maiden

* No winners managed this

* I need to be right about the draw or I wont win

* SANS LOI drawn high looks the obvious play

* I’d like a shorter absence but overlooking that

* SANS LOI is my choice Lost

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