Cheltenham Racing Tip

C h e l t e n h a m   2.05

2/1 Aerial, 9/2 The Giant Bolster, 13/2 Poquelin
8/1 Tamarinbleu, 9/1 Araldur, 9/1 Chance Du Roy
9/1 Woolcombe Folly, 14/1 Hell4s Bay
16/1 Tartak, 25/1 Billie Magern.

* This is a Graded Handicap Chase over 2m 5f
* There are only 12 similar races at this time of year.
* Look at the 12 Cheltenham races
* Horses aged 6 and 7 have a 0-37 record
* That seems quite a revealing statistic in these races
* I’d oppose horses aged 6 or 7 with that record
* Especially as the first two favourites fail this.
* AERIAL – I am opposing him as a 6yo
* THE GIANT BOLSTER – Avoid him as a 7yo
* BILLIE MAGERN – doesnt offer me enough
* HELL4S BAY – Not in good enough form
* TARTAK – Too much of a fitness doubt for me
* WOOLCOMBE FOLLY – Vulnerable from 2m
* TAMARINBLEU – Asking lots for a 12yo

Shortlist

* POQUELIN – The class horse but a lot to do
* CHANCE DU ROY – Big chance
* ARALDUR – No problems with his profile

S e l e c t i o n

CHANCE DU ROY  10/1 Each Way Ladbrokes bet365

Last time out CHANCE DU ROY was beaten 16 lengths
by Quincy Des Pictons who was rated 119. There was no
shame in that. It was heavy ground and Welsh National
day and CHANCE DU ROY had topweight and gave him
33lbs weight. Thats a massive ammount and when you
consider than Quincy Des Pictons is now rated 137 then
I think he had an impossible task that day. Its interesting
the 3rd horse (Consigliere) came out and won 20 lengths
next time out. CHANCE DU ROY is the one getting the
weight today and I like his chance.

Posted under horse racing tips

Racing Tip For Ascot

A s c o t   2.35

4/1 Smad Place, 5/1 A Bridge Too Far, 11/2 Ciceron
6/1 Shoreacres, 13/2 Joseph Lister, 7/1 Royal Charm
12/1 Pateese, 16/1 Orzare, 16/1 Rowan Tiger
20/1 Tara Rose.

* This is a Graded Handicap Hurdle just short of 2m 4f
* Statistically there are only 5 renewals to consider
* 5 year olds have  yet to win this race.
* SMAD PLACE wouldnt interest me because of that
* Especially not first time out when not 100% fit
* JOSEPH LISTER is also rejected as a 5yo
* He looks short of runs with just 3 hurdle races
* You would have thought lightly raced hurdlers are best
* Thats not the case in this race
* Winners had 16 12 32 20 17 previous hurdle runs
* That shows this goes to experienced hurdlers
* ROWAN TIGER is out with 4 runs from a Novice Hurdle
* A BRIDGE TOO FAR has only had 6 hurdle starts
* Without Graded backclass I dont see a strong case
* TARA ROSE – Rejected as a mare with just 4 runs
* ORZARE wouldnt interest me first time out
* ROYAL CHARM doesnt offer me enough
* Not keen that he comes from a Chase
* Not sure he is fit enough
* Not convinced he is weighted to win anyway
* CICERON – I thought he had a fair chance
* CICERON is potentially a saver
* PATEESE – Comes here after well beaten last time
* He had excuses and should strip fitter
* Not long ago he was favourite for the Greatwood Hurdle
* I think he is worth a saver

S e l e c t i o n

SHOREACRES

I like the chance of SHOREACRES. He has had 2 Hurdle
starts since switching from Chasing. He never really took
to fences but did manage a win from 8 Chase starts. Look
back before he went Chasing. This horse managed a 4th
in the Champion Bumper and a decent 7th in a Supreme
Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham. That shows he has plenty
of class. He then went Chasing with limited success but a
couple of hurdle runs recently shows me he can win this.
He does have fewer hurdle runs than all past winners did
but he is plenty experienced because of his chasing races.
I think his last two runs show him in top form and with
a strong form chance. He likes right handed tracks and
is very fit and it’s hard to see him being far away here.

Selection

SHOREACRES Some 7/1 and 13/2 was available earlier when full members got this.
11/2 now top bookmaker price at Ladbrokes, bet365 and VC
Each way I would suggest

Or alternately if you like bet it on the nose with a saver bet on
PATEESE at 10/1 bet365 betfred Sky Ladbrokes BoyleSports

For more info on my private service see here ==> Betting Advice

 

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

Horse Racing Tip For Warwick

SERVICE NEWS

There are 69 days to the Cheltenham Festival. In
aviation terms the National Hunt flight takes off
in November with the Destination Cheltenham in
March. We have been through the turbulance of
weeks 1 and 2 in January where the racing is poor
and one of the bumpiest parts of the trip. Now as
we come to weeks 3 and 4 in January the flight is
now starting a gradual descent down to destination.
During that descent passangers will be able to see
some great landmarks like the Tote Gold Trophy
now known sadly as the Betfair hurdle. There is
the Skybet Chase – The victor chandler at Ascot
and many other statistically strong races. We are
entering Ante Post Season now which is always a
lot more interesting than the drudgery you get on
the Sand and the lower grade national hunt cards.
I plan to do full statistical previews for all the big
trials and I always get excited at this time of year.

SATURDAY’S RACING

The horse I am most excited about today
and the strongest bet advised today to Full Members,
runs in a very early race today. I will leave metioning it here
on the free betting blog.

For the free tip today we are off to Warwick for one of the later races.

W a r w i c k   3.40

5/1 Sona Sasta, 6/1 Neptune Equester, 7/1 Blazing Bailey
7/1 Strongbows Legend, 8/1 Major Malarkey, 10/1 Faasel
10/1 Hey Big Spender, Bench Warrent 14/1 Fredo
14/1 Morning Moment,16/1 On Borrowed Wings
20/1 Hello Bud 20/1 Miko De Beauchene.

* The Classic Chase is a high class 3m 5f Handicap Chase
* There are 20 similar races at this time of year.
* Not a great stats race as it has changed over the years
* There is a small sample size of these races as well
* MORNING MOMENT – Not for me 8lbs out of the weights
* All recent winners had more backclass than him
* His last run was poor and he has a weak profile
* Only 2 winners overcame heavy defeats to win similar races
* They all had Backclass in Graded races and he doesnt
* I’d also argue he may not stay this far
* MIKO DE BEAUCHENE looks wrong aged 12
* He has not ran a good race in over 2 years
* He is out of the handicap and offers nothing
* FAASEL is 11 and has a miserable profile
* I dont want to bet an exposed 11yo first time out
* I looked at every race in January
* Thats every distance , every class and any kind of race
* I looked at exposed horses aged 11 or more first time
* None managed to win beyond 3 Miles
* None managed to win beyond a Class 4 race
* The only Handicap Chase winner was 2m 5f in Class 4
* FAASEL has a very hard task in my view
* He has never won beyond 2m 5f before either
* HEY BIG SPENDER comes from the Welsh National
* Horses doing that have a bad record in this race
* There isnt enough recovery time
* That hurts his profile and so does his weight
* Horses with 11st 8lbs in this race were 0-17
* HEY BIG SPENDER also has to prove he stays this far
* His sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 3f yet
* BENCH WARRENT comes from the Welsh National
* Horses doing that have a bad record in this race
* He may struggle to get over a hard race at Chepstow
* Statistically I can live with him
* I cant forgive him a hard 4th in the Welsh National
* Not with a very inexperienced jockey
* ON BORROWED WINGS comes from 22f
* No winners did that in any similar race in January
* His last Chase was only in a Novice Handicap
* His sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 1f yet
* FREDO is exposed and doesnt do it for me
* No exposed horse won when  aged 8
* None won when coming from 3m or shorter either
* FREDO also has to show he stays
* His sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 1f yet
* HELLO BUD is too old aged 14
* I looked at every winner aged 13 or more over 3m 2f +
* Thats in any race and at any time of year
* There was only 1 winner beyond a Class 3 race
* That was Spot The Difference in a Cross Country Chase
* Out of form aged 14 he is not worth betting
* BLAZING BAILEY comes from the Welsh National
* Horses doing that have a bad record in this race
* There isnt enough recovery time
* I can accept the argument he is a class horse
* And that he will like the ground and the drop in class
* You can also argue he didnt have too hard a race at Chepstow
* Statistically though he is not strong
* I looked at all exposed horses running within a month
* They had a bad record and none ran as badly as him last time

S h o r t l i s t

* MAJOR MALARKEY has 1 run this season
* Thats easily my biggest problem with him
* Past winners had  1 2 3 2 6 2 4 runs that season
* Last years winner was a 9yo with 1 run this year
* That really does help his profile
* Last years winner also had 9 Chase starts like him
* Last years winner helpsm to gets him shortlisted
* Without that evidence I’d have opposed him
* Still bothers me he’s the only horse with 1 run

* STRONGBOWS LEGEND is hard to read aged 7
* All 7 year old winners were placed last time
* STRONGBOWS LEGEND Fell which isnt a good preparation
* Ignore that and he won 25 lengths before that
* This is said to be a very well handicapped horse
* His lack of backclass bothers me a bit
* STRONGBOWS LEGEND has no form beyond Class 3 grade
* The last 7 winners all had Graded form
* Almost every similar winner had more backclass too
* He is 5lbs out of the handicap as well
* I like him a lot but not sure if he has the class

* SONA SASTA has 5 Chase starts
* We have had recent winners with 4 and 6 chase starts
* I’d have liked a slighly better last run
* I can overlook that as he hasn’t done much wrong
* If the grounds right he must be a player
* He has to prove he stays this far though
* Thats not certain on his breeding

* NEPTUNE EQUESTER – No strong problems with him
* He did the right thing avoiding the Welsh National
* I dont see why he shouldnt go well

Selection

NEPTUNE EQUESTER 13/2 Each Way

13/2 available at bet365

For live market odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-01-14/warwick/15-40/betting/

 

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

6th Winning Free Tip Saturday In A Row?

Mathematician 1153

Lingfield  3.55 – PIPERS PIPING  10/1 Each Way

L i n g f i e l d

Lingfield has a ferocious card. I have half chances in a
lot of races but not sure there is anything good enough
to advise. I nearly did something in the 3.55pm but I’d
run out of time. I like Pipers Piping and City Legend a
bit and although I have not made a strong enough case
for a very strong bet I can go with a mention. Rather
than have City Legend as a saver I will take a simpler
route and suggest PIPERS PIPING each way at 9/1 +

It’s very hard today and I have struggled to find any
really decent bet and I think it’s a dangerous day so
go careful and consider its a particularly tough day.
I see this more as a Fun Bet and no guarantees we are
going to get anything back from it.

L i n g f i e l d   3.55

9/4 Sketchy Evidence, 7/2 Eager To Bow, 11/2 City Legend
13/2 The Strig, 8/1 Pipers Piping, 10/1 Cativo Cavallino
12/1 Hawk Moth, 16/1 Silvee, 20/1 Sienna Blue
25/1 High On The Hog.

No time to look at this handicap in any great detail
but I checked out Sketchy Evidence and would have
opposed him. No winners came from maidens with
2 runs as he does. Only one winner came from a 6f
maiden and that horse had a long absence and I just
see him as shaky. EAGER TO BOW does have the
much safer profile but he didnt excite me and that
aside his draw would put me off him. There are two
I think stand out with recent races in this race.

* CITY LEGEND – Every chance of taking this
* PIPERS PIPING – Looks interesting with better jockey

Selection

PIPERS PIPING  10/1 Each Way at s james

For live market prices see
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-01-07/lingfield-park/15-55/betting/

If you are led personally to City Legend I would not put you off it.

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Posted under horse racing tips