Racing Plus Handicap Hurdle

K e m p t o n   4.45

4/1 Ashbrittle, 5/1 Semi Colon, 6/1 The Reformer
13/2 Oscar Prairie, 8/1 Like A Hurricane, 8/1 So Fine
12/1 Woolfall Treasure, 14/1 Busker Royal, 16/1 Balzaccio
16/1 Glenstal Abbey, 16/1 Pause And Clause, 16/1 Ultravox
20/1 Dantari, 25/1 Tasheba, 33/1 Mister Snowball.

* This is a 2m 5f Handicap Hurdle
* There has been 18 renewals of this race
* The long history suggests two things
* We dont want exposed and experienced types
* Equally we dont want very inexperienced types
* We want to fall between the two extremes
* Past winners had the following National Hunt Runs
* 12 8 12 10 7 9 9 7 17 6 9 5 9 10 9 6
* Past winners had the following Hurdle Starts
* 12 8 9 6 7 9 8 7 16 6

I’d be looking for a horse thats unexposed. I would want
Under 17 National Hunt runs and ideally Under 13 runs.
I would be more interested of they had 6-12 Hurdle runs.

* ASHBRITTLE the favourite has just 3 career starts
* The above stats show all past winners had at least 5
* ASHBRITTLE shouldnt be seen as a negative though
* He is just not like any past winners of this race
* ASHBRITTLE – I dont see enough I like here
* SO FINE has only had 3 Hurdle runs
* Recent past winners had 12 8 9 6 7 9 8 7 16 6
* SO FINE doesnt interest me with just three
* The following horses look outclassed
* MISTER SNOWBALL – GLENSTAL ABBEY
* TASHEBA – I feel he is too exposed
* Horses aged 9 or more are 0-42 in this race
* LIKE A HURRICANE fails that and comes from a chase
* Just two runs this year I am not convinced
* No past dropped from 3m like him
* BALZACCIO has the same stable and same problem
* He comes from 3m chases and looks wrong
* BUSKER ROYAL – Wrong aged (9) and too exposed
* PAUSE AND CLAUSE is too exposed
* DANTARI is too exposed
* WOOLFALL TREASURE – Has a reasonable exposure
* Not convinced he is in food enough form though

S h o r t l i s t

* OSCAR PRAIRIE is fine 12 runs and 7 hurdle starts
* Not sure his  preparation is safe
* He had been Chasing before a run in a Jumpers Bumper
* Much depens how he takes to hurdling and to 2m 5f
* ULTRAVOX – A  bit too exposed but only just
* Positives elsewhere in his profile
* His stable are also in flying  form and money has come
* ULTRAVOX could be a sensible saver
* SEMI COLON – There are some big doubts about her profile
* No mares came from a Chase in any similar races
* I am shortlisting him for 3 reasons
* His number of runs and exposure is a big positive
* His trainer is outstanding
* Not enough similar types have tried to win with his profile
* That stops me makig him a negative
* SEMI COLON is not like any winners though
* THE REFORMER looks interesting
* He is a lightly raced 7 year old from a handicap
* I like his profile and one past winner was similar
* 1995 winner Fired Earth was uncannily similar
* Like him he dissapointed when last seen
* That was a better class race than this
* THE REFORMER started favourite that day and came 3rd
* Dropped in the weights he could bounce back in this

Selection
Split stake on
THE REFORMER 7/1 Win Bet
ULTRAVOX 16/1 Saver Bet

Nb blog comment: Ultravox has steamed in a fair bit since Full members got this earlier today. 10/1 Coral available but looks like it will go soon.

See live market odds at

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-02-25/kempton-park/16-45/betting/

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on February 25, 2012

Haydock Racing Tip

Apologies for the lack of message last weekend.

Temporary hosting glitch issues meant the site was inaccessible for posting.

On to today

 

H a y d o c k  4.30

3/1 Mister Hyde, 4/1 Upthemsteps, 6/1 Cannington Brook
6/1 Scoter Fontaine, 7/1 Lackamon, 7/1 Majala
12/1 Empress Orchid, 12/1 Monsieur Cadou.

* This is a 2m 4f Novice Handicap Chase
* There are 6 renewals of this race
* The 6 winners had 3 4 4 5 3 5 chase runs
* The 6 winners had 6 4 4 5 3 3 runs this season

I would ideally want 3-4-5 chase starts and at least
3 runs this season. CANNINGTON BROOK has 9
Chase starts perhaps more than ideal and I can not
bet him as no winners came from 3m 6f down to a
2m 4f race. Every past winner came from a 2m 4f
race or further. Not sold on SCOTER FONTAINE
who won a 2m race last time. EMPRESS ORCHID
is out as a mare from 2m. MONSIEUR CADOU is
out without any Chasing experience. LACKAMON
and MAJALA both come from Graded Chases and
thats not a typical preparation for a race like this.
I respect UPTHEMSTEPS but he has just 2 chase
starts less than all past winners and he has fewer
runs this season than every other horse and that
worries me on soft ground at this track. The best
bet looks to be MISTER HYDE who came down
in a better class race last time. He will find these
fences much easier than Cheltenham and down in
class and well treated I like him best.

Selection – MISTER HYDE 5/1 EachWay

at various spots including Tote vc bet365 Coral

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on February 18, 2012

Look For Love At Your Bookmaker

W o l v e r h a m p t o n  2.05

7/2 Monsieur Pontaven, 4/1 Look For Love
9/2 Gala Spirit, 5/1 Blue Noodles, 7/1 Kyncraighe
8/1 Misere, 14/1 Rise To Glory, 16/1 July Days
25/1 Portrush Storm, 25/1 Yours, 33/1 Kwik Time.

* This is a 7f handicap for 0-55 rated horses
* KWIK TIME didnt run well enough just 4 days ago
* MISERE is a 4yo filly down from a Mile
* Similar 4yo fillies were 1-77 which isnt promising
* YOURS – All 4yo fillies to win ran better than her last time
* PORTRUSH STORM is a mare down in distance
* None managed that as old as her and she lacks backclass
* RISE TO GLORY – Beaten a long way over 7f last time
* No 4yo overcame that with a run in the past month
* GALA SPIRIT has a reasonable form chance
* I cant rule her out but something bothers me
* She is an older mare with 1 run in 92 days
* I looked at all mares with recent runs
* They all had at least 1 more in the previous 7 weeks
* GALA SPIRIT doesnt and looks underraced
* She may get away with it but I’d rather take her on
* JULY DAYS is weak as a mare absent 128 days
* Similar horses have a poor strike rate in these races
* If she wins it will be because she is well handicapped
* She faces a tough absence though and is un safe

S h o r t l i s t

* BLUE NOODLES is an exposed 6yo from a 6f race
* He has a recent run and Class 4 form
* That good recent run just scrapes him on a shortlist
* I’d have prefered him not to have come up in trip
* KYNCRAIGHE is an exposed 4yo from a 7f race
* Fit and running well recently he is shortlistable
* The similar 4 year olds that won were highweights though
* MONSIEUR PONTAVEN is an exposed 5yo from 7f
* Not a bad profile but he is very short on backclass
* I still found 1 winner like him
* That horse did have 5lbs less weight
* MONSIEUR PONTAVEN has won twice before
* Both times he won he had blinkers
* He doesnt wear any headgear today and additional worry
* I shortlist him but low backclass leaves him unimpressive
* LOOK FOR LOVE is 4 and has a recent race over 8f
* He is unexposed and has just Class 4 form
* I found 2 similar winners and shortlist him

Selection

So few of these have any backclass and its wide open. I had
4 shortlisted and there are horses that are not that could be capable of winning it. I thought the best option statistically was LOOK FOR LOVE but I am also drawn to the jockey on KYNCRAIGHE a horse thats looked like he was crying out for strong handling and I can see him coming late and going close. This race dangerous as it is might be best approached by a split stake bet giving us a good chance of covering bases.

LOOK FOR LOVE 13/2  Win Bet vc – s james – blue sq

KYNCRAIGHE 7/4 Place Bet on Betfair

 

Also worth a quick note today is the opportunity to bag a bit of free cash from bet365. Worth mentioning here as it is open to existing customers as well as new ones.

On Monday the 6rd February (8pm), Liverpool take on Tottenham at Anfield and bet365 are again offering a £50 free in-play bet offer for the match for new and existing customers. See their site for full info.  Dependign on yoru nature either see it as an extra value  gamble or alternately seek to hedge the qualifing bet to leave a £50 free bet net of significant risk.

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on February 4, 2012