The Spring Mile

Following on from a winner at 9/1 in the Gold Cup
George Guru won last week for us at about 13/8.

I am realistic and resigned to the fact that today
may well result in a loser and probably will.

The main focus is Doncaster today. It is always a tough
card but we know what we are getting.

Given the type of race I am betting in I will be delighted to
get anything out of it. REVE DE NUIT may
be underpriced here as a fit horse thats well treated so
I want to bet him but there is a doubt about the trip.

The Spring Mile – Doncaster  2.05

* The Spring Mile is a Class 2 Handicap over 8f
* Its a Consolation race for horses not in the Lincoln
* I have looked at the 19 Spring Mile races

* I have to first try and predict the draw bias
* Doncaster have had 14 similar races since 2006
* Thats 14 Handicaps with 17 or more ruinners
* The winners came from the following stalls
* 11 16 16 1 19 20 9 9 18 12 12 17 16 10
* 13 of the 14 races went to horses drawn 9 +
* Those drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 were just 1-109
* That was 2010 Lincoln winner Penitent on soft ground
* This evidence suggests low numbers are vulnerable

* I want to try and narrow this down statistically
* Horses aged 7 or more have a 0-72 record
* Horses that dropped in trip from 9f and longer were 0-96
* There were 5 winners that had ran this year
* None had 4 or more runs since January 1st
* I’d avoid exposed horses with 1 run this season
* Horses from 3yo handicaps need under 9 runs
* There were 3 past winners from 7f or shorter
* None were aged 6 or more
* REDVERS falls a bit short and I hate his draw
* He has also downgraded stables since his last run
* PRINCE OF BURMA is the wrong type
* SHAMDARLEY – A bit exposed from a 3yo handicap
* I’d have liked fewer runs for a 4yo doing this
* SHAMDARLEY has a few too many runs
* I looked at 4yo seasonal debutants from 7f
* Several run with under 6 runs those with more are 0-65
* WEAPON OF CHOICE fails that
* CAPTAIN BERTIE fails that with 10 runs
* LEVIATHAN has flaws down from 10f
* SNOW BAY – Will probably need the run
* He has a career high mark as well
* Most of his form is on sharp tracks as well
* SNOW BAY wouldnt interest me
* I looked at 4 year olds that ran within 2 weeks
* Those with 9 or more runs were 0-57
* KINGSCROFT fails that with 27 races
* ARABIAN SPIRIT – Didnt do enough last time
* KAY GEE BE is a seasonal debutant aged 8
* Very few winners his aged managed to do that
* The only ones that did had Group form before
* KAY GEE BE doesnt and I see him as unsafe
* He also has a career high mark first time out aged 8
* PERFECT CRACKER is 4 and up in distance
* That wont be easy with a 92 day break
* I dont think he has the backclass to overcome that
* MONT RAS  has been the big ante post gamble
* He was 16/1 a few days ago and has been backed in
* MONT RAS is 5 and has 7 runs
* Last years winner Eton Forever had the same profile
* Both are seasonal debutants as well
* That shortlists him but he only has Class 3 backclass
* Eton Forever had Group class form before winning last year
* MONT RAS lack of backclass troubles me most

SHORTLIST

* FIRST POST – Has enough to shortlist
* He is up in class and I’d rather he wasnt
* I also wonder if his draw is a bit too high
* CROWN COUNSEL – I dont mind his profile
* REVE DE NUIT – I like his profile well raced this year
* He is badly handicapped on sand and has had recent excuses
* His Turf mark is much better
* I would like more turf form at 8f but he is a positive

Selection

REVE DE NUIT at 14/1 could be interesting. He has had
3 runs this Callender year 2 of which were in the last three weeks
and a 7 day absence looks very helpfull.
He must be one of the fittest horses here.
The dilemma is whether he is better on sand and whether he needs further.
I think he is a good risk for the following reasons.

* His rating on Grass is 11lbs lower than on Sand
* He has won a better race than this on Grass of this mark
* In terms of the trip it is a slight worry
* Last time out though he placed at a Mile at Lingfield
* That was a better class race than this was
* Lingfield is a very easy Mile and this is much stiffer
* With a long straight it will give him time to finish
* If he can place there with a fitness edge he can here
* His jockey is an interesting booking as well
* REVE DE NUIT 14/1 looks the best option

14/1  in multiple spots including s james Paddy Power Ladbrokes Coral

Same odds at bet365 but they have the extra perk of paying out 5 places so go there and each way if they still let you get a bet on with them.

 

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PS   I have further  full bets for full members today in the 6.05

So plenty of time to get them and get on if you wish to join up as a client proper.

See Here For More info ==> Betting Advice

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 31, 2012

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Betting Guru

L i n g f i e l d  4.00

9/4 Kingscroft, 11/4 George Guru, 6/1 Axiom
7/1 Dubai Dynamo, 10/1 Hung Parliament,Titan Triumph
14/1 Reve De Nuit, 16/1 Final Drive.

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over a mile
* Not many similar races so hard to match horses
* HUNG PARLIAMENT – 4yo seasonal debutants struggle
* None had under 13 career starts as he does
* AXIOM – No seasonal debutants won aged 7 or older
* TITAN TRIUMPH won a 7f handicap last time
* No horse as old as him won again at a mile
* Coming up in class he has a lot to prove
* DUBAI DYNAMO doesnt appeal from a 6f race
* Not as a 7yo with just 1 run since last October
* REVE DE NUIT – Just falls short and looks badly handicapped
* FINAL DRIVE -Doesnt look well treated at the moment
* I think he may need another run this year
* KINGSCROFT is an exposed 4 year old
* Similar types from 8f handicaps were 0-4
* Career high mark and unsafe profile but respected
* GEORGE GURU – Unorthodox as lightly raced 5yo
* Acceptable profile and well raced this season
* He should have a fitness edge over most of these

Selection – GEORGE GURU

Prices are coming in a  touch since this was advised to full members earlier

13/8  available at PaddyPowerBoyleSportss james – vc

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 24, 2012

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Saturday After Cheltenham

No free tip message today. I only put a
few hours in to the Saturday meeting after Cheltenham
as the festival work is so demanding and I find it impossible
to raise my game today.
We made some serious profit at Cheltenham.
That’s over now and we have targets ahead.

The Year takes a very
sharp turn now Cheltenham has gone. We are heading
towards the flat season and finally some serious racing
with one eye on the Grand National meeting. This year
I will provide extensive statistics in all races at Aintree.
I have never done that before as I haven’t had the time
in the past because the start of the flat took over.
I’m going to put enough time aside this year and sort it out.
At some stage I have to move house as well.
It’ll have to be a very well planned next few weeks.
The carnival is over and we an regroup on Monday or
Tuesday and getback to some normality as the flat racing is coming.

A very nice end to the festival with the only bet on the
day SYNCHRONISED winning the Gold Cup at a decent
price. He turned the festival from a reasonable one to a
very good one. I was right to keep the bets down with a
lot of unsortable races yesterday. In the extra analysis section
Salsify won for us and we had a good 16/1 each way place in the
Grand Annual so the bottom of the message more than paid it’s way but it was really about SYNCHRONISED available at 9/1 and 10/1 and a
truly brilliant ride from Tony McCoy. There are plenty
of ups and downs in this game but betting a winners of a
top class race at good odds is as good as it gets and that
put the seal on a really good Cheltenham Festival for us

Feedback from new members over Cheltenham has been very positive.

Not surprising as they made some significant profit.
My quick back of envelope calc is that we had firm bets in 12 Cheltenham races.
£50 total staked per race would have made a net profit in the region of £650 to £700

The deal page we will leave up till Monday morning.
It’s a a very good offer adn a great opportunity for anyone interested to test the
beauty of the full service proper with their own eyes.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

Back next week however fingers crossed with the usual Saturday Free Blog Tip.

Posted under horse racing tips

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)  3m2f110y

7/4 Long Run, 7/2 Kauto Star, 15/2 Burton Port
11/1 Synchronised, 12/1 Midnight Chase, 12/1 Weird Al
20/1 What A Friend, 33/1 Diamond Harry
40/1 Time For Rupert, 50/1 China Rock, 66/1 Carruthers
66/1 The Giant Bolster, 100/1 Knockara Beau
100/1 The Midnight Club.

The Gold Cup is always fascinating and is again this year
as well. You will no doubt have your own views about it
and may already be involved. I am going to see where a
few of my statistics lead me. It was 1969 before we last
had a winner aged 11 or more and for all his brilliance I
do oppose KAUTO STAR as a 12 year old. I dont think
its relevant what he has done at Kempton or Haydock
this season. Judge him on Gold Cup form and he failed
in 2011 and 2010 and never looked like winning either
of the last two renewals. I think something should beat
him. I would also go as far as saying he might not place
either. DIAMOND HARRY isn’t safe enough and dont
think he’s about to win a Gold Cup on this course. I’m
against BURTON POINT with just one run so far this
season. Every past winners had more. There must be a
chance he will bounce after his Newbury run and I feel
he is too riSky. He’s also a small horse that wont enjoy
this race of it gets rough in any way. I couldnt be with
him having just that one race. MIDNIGHT CHASE is
now an exposed 10 year old and whilst not a negative
horses his age have struggled recently. He doesn’t have
the right exposure and is rated a bit lower than is ideal.

P o s s i b l e s

WEIRD AL

WEIRD AL pulled up in last years race but He has been
quietly shortening in the betting this year and now 12/1
a much shorter price than you may expect. He is hard
to read. I can argue he’s lower than the minimum rating
I think you want. I can argue he did not quite do enough
on his last start but there is nothing statistically wrong
with his chance other than minor infringments. I also
think its quite interesting he has upgraded stables since
last year. He had a larynx problem that required surgery
after the Hennessy in 2001 and Bled in last years Gold
Cup. He is now with Donald McCain who has not raced
him since November. This horse is Best Fresh. The big
doubt is whether he is Man enough for the race. He was
a Boy last year. A Sickly child needing operations and
having physical problems. He was asked to do a bit too
much and wasn’t finishing races and getting distressed.

He was out of his depth and couldn’t cope. Now he has
a new trainer another year on his back and has shown
he isn’t far away from his best. Has that extra year or
new stable made him a Man Has he gone through the
process of Boy to Man or is he still weak and waiting
to crumble once tested to the maximum stress of any
Gold Cup. I dont know but he’s one of those that may
win or finish last and may be a win bet and a place lay.

S h o r t l i s t

LONG RUN

* LONG RUN – Statistically there are no problems
* Like many I haven’t been impressed with him this year
* My own view is winning this aged 6 knocked him back
* He is shortlistable and probably around the right price
* He will have to run and jump his best this year to win

WHAT A FRIEND

* Statistically I pass him as fine
* He fails 3 stats but only by the width of an Atom
* I want a 166 rating and he is 165
* I want a 1st or 2nd last time and he was 3rd
* I want a win within 6 runs and his came 7 runs ago
* I can ignore All that especially as he is 25/1 +
* I think this horse has been unfairly pidgeon holed
* He gets a lot of criticism as being ungenuine
* Many dont realise what he was up against
* I want to put the case for the defence
* WHAT A FRIEND won his first 2 chases in 2009
* Nothing wrong at all with that
* He was then hammered in the Sun Alliance
* When he flopped in the Sun Alliance I expected it
* Big negative that day with only 2 Chase starts
* We opposed him and he had the wrong preparation
* He won next time at Stratford
* First time out 2009-2010 he was 2nd in the Hennessy
* Second in Denmans Hennessy was a creditable effort
* WHAT A FRIEND won a Grade 1 next time
* He then went and won another Grade 1 after that
* He was beaten then at Haydock in November 2010
* That was first time out so hardly worth damming him
* He was odds on in the 2001 Aon Chase
* People criticised him but he did come second
* That day he had just 1 run that year and a long break
* I had him as a negative in that race and not safe
* His 2011 Gold Cup run was very good
* He was only beaten 11 lengths by Long run
* Ignore his run in the 2011 Grand National
* He didnt stay and he was technically still a 7yo
* None have won in decades and that was no shame
* This year he had a reasonable prep race at Newbury
* That will set him up with a chance in this race
* Whenever this horse has lost he has been criticised
* Almost every time he has there was a genuine excuse.
* WHAT A FRIEND should be half his price

SYNCHRONISED

I said in the January 21st message that my early choice
for the Gold Cup was SYNCHRONISED and nothing has
changed my mind. I see Pricewise have tipped him so it
may be a point shorter than expected but this horse has
a massive chance. His 2011 Welsh National win was so
impressive statistically he looked at Gold Cup horse at
that point. His Lexus chase win may have been a slow
time but thast wasn’t his fault as he oozed class. I have
never felt he was ground dependant and its clear he has
been trained like a Gold Cup winner and not overfaced
in unneccesary races and I get the impression his yard
have known for a while he could be up to this class.

SELECTION

LONG RUN 2/1
WHAT A FRIEND 25/1
SYNCHRONISED  10/1

I think one of these will win. LONG RUN is clearly the
most likely winner but he’s short and with 3 shortlisted
staking becomes a problem. There is a market which is
“without the two favourites” Long Run and Kauto Star
and I was tempted by WHAT A FRIEND each way in
that market around 10/1. Thats tempting and I have a
small bet on that myself but for several weeks now I’ve
been very keen on SYNCHRONISED and he is my bet.

SYNCHRONISED 10/1

Nb blog comment:  10/1 now gone but was about earlier when full members got this.

9/1 available at Ladbrokess jamesbet365

 

PS Chelt Deal offer available for the rest of this week

see http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

 

 

 

 

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Posted under Major Horse Races

Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

These are based on the past thirteen years of Cheltenham Gold Cup runnings.

We go to this level for almost all races we anlaysis whether its a major festival such as Cheltenham or a minor meeting in January. Working harder than others produces an edge.

 

Cheltenham Friday 3.20

betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase 3m 2 1/2f

* The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y
* 15 of the last 16 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts
* The exception was Kauto Star with 20 Chases in 2009
* The last 16 winners ran in the following number of chases
* 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled
* Ignoring French runs they had a 0-85 record
* You are best with an improving lightly raced horse
* Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record.
* They’ve won 16 of the last 18 Cheltenham Gold Cups.
* Horses aged 10 do not have a great record
* Horses aged 10 have a 1-90 record since 1992
* Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969
* All 36 that ran in the last 18 years lost.
* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.
* I wouldnt want a horse with fewer runs that season
* Horses absent more than 10 weeks are fine
* Previous track form is a serious advantage in this race.
* This advantage is increased if horse had Festival form.
* 12 of the last 14 winners placed at a previous Festival.
* Almost all past winners placed or fell last time out
* The only exception was last years winner 5th in a Grade 1
* Every winner had won in one of their last 6 races.
* A rating of around 166 is needed to win this race
* Horses from a Grade 1 – Grade 2 chase last time are best
* Horses that placed or won a Grade 1/Grade 2 were best
* Every winner since 1992 had managed that
* A Novice hasnt won the Gold Cup since 1974
* Two recent winners came from Handicaps
* Both those winners had Grade 1 Form before
* No winners since 1979 had ran on the Flat

S t r o n g e s t A n g l e s

* 15 of the last 16 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled
* Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record
* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season
* Almost all past winners placed or fell last time out

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips