Betfred Silver Bowl Handicap

A nice winner for us last week with Expense Claim winning at 7/1

See http://www.horse-betting-blog.co.uk/horse-racing-tips/bookmaker-expense-claim/

Thanks for the email in.
Always appreciated to hear about you taking a few £ of the bookmakers.

On to today.

Haydock 2.30 – FROG HOLLOW

I think he will win. The problem is he was 7/1 Thursday
and bits of 8/1. Since then we have had Pricewise tip him
and 2 fancied non runners. I couldn’t have done him ante
post as there were not enough firms pricing this race up.
Now I am left with the dilemma of deciding whether to
tip him at a much shorter 7/2 or to leave him alone. It
is so hard to make him a bet when he is best priced 7/2.

I had intended him as a full member tip today.
But have downgraded him from that due to available odds.

I will give my thoughts on him here to you free blog readers however.

I have selected a different horse today for the full member bet.
My comment on him relative to Frog Hollow was that he
“is almost twice the price yet had half as many runners to beat”

Available in the full member area now.
Join for immediate access at
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

 

 

 

 

 

H a y d o c k  2.30

Live Odds At

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-05-26/haydock-park/14-30/betting/

* The Silver Bowl is a 3yo handicap over 8f
* There are 18 renewals of this race
* There are 46 similar races in May and June
* You want a lightly raced male horse thats in form
* Since 2010 there has been 24 Handicaps here at 8f
* Thats 24 Handicaps with 11 or more runners
* Horses drawn 1 or 2 had a 0-46 record
* Recent winners had the following draws
* 8 9 12 6 3 5 11 15 6 10 12 10 10 8 8 10 4 17 4
* Horses Drawn 1-2 have the worst record
* GABRIAL is Drawn 2 and thats a worry
* Strongly fancied – I will deal with him later on
* Experienced horses do not take this race
* Past winners had the following career starts
* 5 4 3 3 8 6 3 4 3 3 3 8 34
* Only 1 of the last 23 winners had 9 + runs
* HAZAZ is not the right type with 9 runs and from 12f
* None of the 46 winners dropped from a 12f race
* LORD OFTHE SHADOWS – too exposed with 10 runs
* Especially coming from a 7f race
* Look at horses that come from 7f or shorter
* Several wom from 7f with 2-3-4 career starts
* Those coming from 7f with 5 + runs had a 1-86 record
* TIDENTIME fails that and has the worst draw
* APOSTLE fails that coming from 7f with 7 runs
* Seasonal debutants have struggled
* Only 1 of the Silver Bowl winners was a debutant
* There were 4 seasonal debutant winners in 46 races
* They all had 2-3 previous races
* Those with 4 or more career starts were 0-30
* WISE VENTURE fails that and is too exposed
* Fillies have not done as well as males
* I looked at fillies coming up in distance
* None ran over 7f or shorter this season
* ABISHENA fails that and doesnt offer enough
* NEMUSHKA is a filly and well beaten last time
* No fillies were beaten as far as she was last time
* MABAANY has a lot to prove first time out
* I cant make him a negative but none are like him
* No winners came from an ordinary 2yo conditions race
* LUCKY HENRY comes from a 7f handicap
* He was beaten further than every 7f runner last time
* SWITZERLAND has been busier than every past winner
* None had more than 4 runs this year he has 6 runs
* SWITZERLAND doesnt come out well enough
* FOREST ROW won an 8f maiden last time
* I ran his profile with 3 runs and 1 this season
* No horse has won this race with his profile
* I found one elsewhere who had more backclass
* FOREST ROW will probably fall short here
* GABRIAL is Drawn 2 and thats a worry
* GABRIAL is from an 8f handicap with 2 runs this year
* I ran that profile and found a couple of winners
* They had 3-4 runs and he has 5 runs
* That means GABRIAL cant be matched exactly
* The arguments against him are these
* He cant be matched exactly
* He has one of the worst two draws
* I looked at his Sires record at 8f and more
* Its fine but none have won above Class 3 yet
* GABRIAL comes from a Class 2 race at Chester
* I looked at horses that came from that race
* When running in this race they had a 0-24 record
* The Chester race he comes from isnt a good trial
* I am not finding enough to overlook the draw
* TRAIL BLAZE comes from an 8f handicap
* He has more than 6 career starts
* I looked at horses from 8f handicaps with 5-6 runs
* The 2006 and 2011 winners of this race had that profile
* Both had 1 run this season
* TRAIL BLAZE has 2 runs so is not an identical match
* Both had Class 2 form before and he doesnt
* Neither of them won last time and he did
* I looked at horses winning 8f handicaps
* Those that won again all had 3 + runs this year
* TRAIL BLAZE is almost right but not quite
* CHAPTER SEVEN – Statistically fails after his last run
* I thought he was one of the better outsiders

P o s s i b l e s

* GREY MIRAGE is drawn 17
* I dont see that as a positive draw
* He won an 8f handicap last time out
* He has 2 runs this year and 4 career starts
* I cant match him exactly but he is almost right
* His chance is down to what Stall 17 does for him
* Very few horses have been drawn 17 over C + D
* None have won though in the last 12 years
* I shortlist him but fear the draw has the biggest say

* FROG HOLLOW comes from an 8f handicap
* He has just 1 run this season and 5 career starts
* There are a few winners of this race quite like him
* The following winners all came from 8f handicaps
* They were all beaten last time like FROG HOLLOW
* The 1992 winner had 1 this year and 4 career starts
* The 1996 winner had 1 this year and 4 career starts
* The 2006 winner had 1 this year and 6 career starts
* The 2010 winner had 1 this year and 5 career starts
* The 2011 winner had 1 this year and 4 career starts
* FROG HOLLOW has a very good profile for me

S e l e c t i o n

FROG HOLLOW
Now best priced 3/1 PaddyPower bet365 William Hill and a few more

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on May 26, 2012

Bookmaker Expense Claim

No joy last week on the free blog with Wotova only placing.
He did run again yesterday however and I pointed full members to him.
This time he won at a decent price.
It happens often when you can spot a horse in the zone of winning
that he may not please you first run but the following time out.

Last week I mentioned the firm bet was full member only.
That did very well for them.
Structured as two win bets and an each way double on
Ascot 1.45 – SHOW FLOWER 3/1
Nottingham 2.00 – DISPOL GRAND 7/2

Both horses won landing a good profit.

We had another good day on Friday with a 10/1 firm bet winner.

The full member service is in great form with profit on turnover on my firm tips
running at a level of about 40% for the past 8 months or so of current message format.

Today for full members I have covered 15 races spread between
the three main meetings at Newmarket, Newbury and Thirsk.
It’s quite a typical Saturday with some taxing handicaps and lots
of pitfalls on quality tracks with very few favours given.

I do have a firm full member bet in the 4.15
Join at link below for instant access
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

For the free blog tip today I am again posting up one of the additional races I have examined.

N e w b u r y 3.05

11/4 Thomas Chippendale, 9/2 Hajras, 8/1 Expense Claim
8/1 Rewarded, 10/1 Almuftarris, Icelander, 14/1 Clayton
14/1 Poetic Lord, 14/1 Trader Jack, 16/1 Al Saham
16/1 Hurricane In Dubai, 33/1 Humungosaur
33/1 Tidal Way, 50/1 Mcvicar.

* This is a 3yo Handicap over 10f
* Recent evidence suggests avoid the very low draws
* Since 2011 there were 15 handicaps with 9 runners
* Horses drawn 1-2-3-4 had a 1-57 record
* The winners came from the following stalls
* 8 5 14 8 6 5 2 5 10 12 6 9 11 13 14
* ICELANDER is unsafe and is also drawn 1
* POETIC LORD is drawn 2 and opposed
* He is quite exposed for seasonal debutant
* HAJRAS isn’t drawn well in stall 3
* I dont like him from a 3yo handicap over 8f
* There were several winners doing that
* None had 2 runs like HAJRAS
* Those like HAJRAS winning last time were 0-16
* REWARDED also won a 3yo handicap over a Mile
* We know all 16 horses doing that failed
* TRADER JACK didnt run well enough last time
* I feel the same about TIDAL WAY
* HURRICANE IN DUBAI won a maiden last time
* None did that with only 2 career starts
* HUMUNGOSAUR – Too exposed to be beaten so far
* MCVICAR – Unlikely to hold off the improvers
* AL SAHAM – No winners came from Pattern class as 2yo’s
* CLAYTON – Not far away but only 2 runs
* The only horses like him had 3 runs and I’d prefer that
* ALMUFTARRIS won a 10f maiden last time
* Normally that was a bad profile in this race
* The 2010 winner did win with the same profile though
* That gets him respect but he is the owners 2nd string

Shortlist

* EXPENSE CLAIM – Good solid all round profile
* THOMAS CHIPPENDALE – 1 similar winner
* THOMAS CHIPPENDALE is the most likely winner
* I’d want to include both horses in the staking plan
* Given the prices I am drawn to the bigger priced horse

Selection

EXPENSE CLAIM 7/1 Win Bet blue sq – betfredWilliam Hillbet365

THOMAS CHIPPENDALE 9/4 Saver Bet blue sq

Live market odds at
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-05-19/newbury/15-05/betting/

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

Nottingham Racing Tip

A small profit on the horse betting blog last weekend from landing the place.

I do have what I feel are stronger bets today and have in fact tipped two firm bets today for my main clients at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk . They always moan however if I post for free my firm bets.  I guess they have a fair point.  This is from further down the message in my Profiles and Previews section.

Worth a nosey if devoid of inspiration yourself this afternoon.

N o t t i n g h a m   5.30

9/2 Join Up, 5/1 Myraid, 5/1 Woteva, 6/1 Alluring Star
6/1 Crocodile Bay, 6/1 Sky Diamond, 10/1 Caledonia Prince
10/1 Eyes On, 20/1 Centre Stage, 33/1 Femme Royale.

This is a low grade Apprentice handicap over a Mile.
I have problems with ALLURING STAR as she goes
up in distance as a filly. CALEDONIA PRINCE also
comes up in trip and was beaten too far doing that.
There are several here that fail for backclass with a
few having never run beyond a Class 5 grade before.
CALEDONIA PRINCE fails that. Both EYES ON
and MYRAID also fail that. CROCODILE BAY has
lots to prove aged 9 and coming up in distance. I’m
shortlisting Sky DIAMOND who has the class that
you require for the race. JOIN UP is also an option.
I think the best bet is WOTEVA. She has ran twice
now after a long break. Her last run illustrates there
is a good chance she retains her old ability and that
run showed just how well handicapped she was and I
think in light of no outstanding option she is the bet.

Selection

WOTEVA 13/2  Win Bet at several inc PaddyPower betfred
Sky DIAMOND 5/1 Saver at betfred

(Saver = a bet staked to break even if saver wins and main bet loses )

For latest bookmakers odds for this race see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-05-12/nottingham/17-30/betting/

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on May 12, 2012

Racing Tip For Thirsk

T h i r s k  2.40

For Latest Odds on this race see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-05-05/thirsk/14-40/betting/

This 6f Classified Stakes race is a statistical mess and I
dont see a strong edge. All I can say is that in this and
similar races no fillies have won with under 7 runs and
none came from maidens so LOLLINA PAULINA and
SHOW FLOWER have plenty to prove. Horses with 1
run this year like Sky CROSSING have underperformed.
NEARLY A GIFT isnt right. FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN
has a difficult absence to overcome as most winners are
either seasonal debutants or ran within 2 weeks. That’s
narrowed it down to three admittedly unsafe options. I
respect DARK FALCON and FORTROSE ACADEMY.
I think the best profile belongs to HENRY BEE.

* Horses from 3yo maidens
* Running within 2 weeks
* Male horses
* 5 or more career starts
* Similar horses had a 4-6 record
* The 2003-2004 winners of this had this profile

Selection – HENRY BEE 7/1 Each Way

CoralBoyleSportsbetfreds james

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on May 5, 2012