Chester Racing Tip

C h e s t e r 4.15

4/1 Diman Waters, 4/1 Electric Qatar
13/2 Church Music, 13/2 Jedward, 8/1 Green Park
8/1 Silvanus, 10/1 Tyfos, 12/1 Beau Mistral
14/1 Living It Large, 16/1 Royal Bajan, 20/1 Crimea
20/1 Hamoody, 20/1 Legal Eagle

* This is a 5f handicap for 0-86 rated horses
* My cut off point with the draw is Stall 11
* There have been 62 handicaps since 2005
* Horses drawn 11 or more are 0-61 in these races
* CRIMEA is drawn 11 and doesnt come out well
* ROYAL BAJAN is out drawn 12
* LEGAL EAGLE is out drawn 13
* LIVING IT LARGE doesnt come out well
* The weight draw absence and inadequate last run hurt him
* HAMOODY doesnt offer enough with a lady rider
* ELECTRIC QATAR is 3 and won last time
* Some 3yo’s did that but none defied a penalty
* ELECTRIC QATAR moves from a 0-75 to a 0-76
* Not convinced he has enough improvement
* You have to consider his running style as well
* He is invariably slowly away or Missing the break
* JEDWARD is hard to read as an older mare
* There are many older mares winning
* None however were as lightly raced as her
* Statistically I cant match her exactly because of that
* This is also a step up in class for her
* Respected but I don’t see enough positives
* GREEN PARK ran over 7f only yesterday
* Troubles me he drops to 5f only a day later
* Especially as he is a 9 year old ridden by a 7lbs claimer
* The only winner from 7f with a recent run was a 5yo
* GREEN PARK is not statistically safe
* DIMAN WATERS has a reasonable solid profile
* He will need a career best though off this rating
* Flopping the start worries me as does the ground
* It may not be as fast as he wants it today
* SILVANUS isnt that well handicapped
* All his handicap wins are in Class 5 and Class 6
* Not keen he is up in class and up in the weights
* He is in good form though but is getting no help
* I couldnt rule him out given how well hes running
* I just feel he has a stiff task and other factors worry me
* Not least no Track form and often being held up

S h o r t l i s t

* BEAU MISTRAL is a 3yo filly
* I looked at those with 13 + runs and a recent race
* I found 1 winner who came from an all aged handicap
* BEAU MISTRAL comes from a 3yo race but I respect her
* She has a chance on Course form two runs ago

* BEAU MISTRAL is shortlistable and a positive

* CHURCH MUSIC is a lightly raced 3yo with Group form
* I dont have a big problem with him at all
* I’d have liked a little bit more recent race

* TYFOS is a 7 year old with 3 runs this season
* He also lacks a recent race
* There were a couple of winners like that
* None had his weight but one did win with 9st 7lbs
* Thats Close enough to shortlist him
* TYFOS is also running into form as well
* His last run was better than it looked
* He raced on his own for most of the race

Selection

TYFOS 8/1 Win Bet
BEAU MISTRAL 12/1 Saver Bet

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on June 30, 2012

Ascot Horse Racing Tip

Close but no cigar last weekend with a 20/1 Sp 2nd place.

On to today

A s c o t 5.35

7/2 Overturn, 4/1 Simenon, 9/2 Zuider Zee, 10/1 Petara Bay
12/1 Swingkeel, 14/1 American Trilogy, 14/1 Elyaadi
20/1 Bernie The Bolt, 20/1 Dawn Twister, Golden Sunbird
20/1 Shahwardi, Cloudy Spirit, 25/1 Seaside Sizzler
33/1 Bruslini, 33/1 Kangaroo Court, 50/1 Romeo Montague
66/1 Moose Moran, 66/1 Riptide, 100/1 Dalhaan
100/1 Scotsbrook Cloud.

* The Queen Alexandra Stakes is over a marathon 2m 5f
* There are some angles that should be applied in this race
* In 22 years no horses came from Class 4 or lower
* The class bridge is too much to make up
* The following horses fail this
* CLOUDY SPIRIT – SCOTSBROOK CLOUD
* RIPTIDE – KANGAROO COURT -BRUSLINI
* In 22 years no horses came from 12f or shorter
* The following horses fail this
* DAWN TWISTER -SWINGKEEL
* SHAHWARDI -ROMEO MONTAGUE
* SEASIDE SIZZLER
* Horses coming from 14f races won 8 past renewals.
* Those beaten more than 6 lengths in that race were 0-55
* BERNIE THE BOLT fails this
* GOLDEN SUNBIRD is wrong as an 8yo mare
* PETARA BAY wrong as a 8yo debutant
* ELYAADI didnt do enough last time
* MOOSE MORAN – DALHAAN are outclassed

S h o r t l i s t

* SIMENON won the 2m 4f Ascot Stakes 4 days ago
* Could be huge fitness edge and win him this
* Could be he had too hard a race then any wont recover
* We can’t predict that before the race
* What we do now is winners have come from that race
* These were all unexposed 4 year olds
* SIMEON is different an exposed 5yo
* AMERICAN TRILOGY – Impossible to rate
* He has been hurdling and hasnt ran on the flat in years
* He has some Class and I’d shortlist him
* OVERTURN – Game front runner could take some beating
* He has to show he stays and can produce on the ground
* ZUIDER ZEE – Serious chance but will he stay ?

Selection

AMERICAN TRILOGY 14/1 victor chandlerLadbrokesWilliam Hillbet365

Each Way

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on June 23, 2012

Speculative Longshots

Last weeks post was titled ” A Poor Saturday ”
As it turned out it was a poor day for the bookies
with Chapter Seven winning at an advised 12/1

We have a full member firm bet running in the 3.10 today.
It is a double digit price horse that will produce a great return if it wins.

If you want to join up read more at
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/betting-advice.asp

Our full bets are doing exceptionally well running at about 40% profit on turnover.

As for the free horse racing tip today we again dip into the
profiles and previews section of the main message.

This is highly speculative today covering a few long odds outsiders.

Y o r k 2.05

For Latest Odds See

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-06-16/york/14-05/betting/

This is a Lady Amateur riders race over 12f. Just looking
for the ideal types. Horses that come up in distance from
8f races like HOT ROD MAMMA have to go and I’d also
be ignoring those from 10f races as well.
I’d ignore the big absences.
Male 4 year olds have struggled in these Ladies races and
I wouldnt want EAGLE ROCK with just 1 race
this season or LEXINGTON BAY another who just fell a
bit short as a 4yo. I dont want 3 year old CAPE SAFARI.
I feel HANOVERIAN BARON needs another race to get
fit. Not keen on the mare ANTIGUA SUNRISE not least
on the ground. CRACKENTORP has good history in this
race and won it last year. This year though he looks a lot
riskier with more weight and only one run this year which
is much fewer than he has had when running in this before.
I wanted more from RED JADE and HALLA SAN looked
too riSky as a 10 year old coming down from a 2m race.
I dont like SIR BOSS’s chance. SCRAPPER SMITH has to
prove he stays and looks short of runs this year. I’d avoid
VEILED APPLAUSE aged 9 and up in distance.

Shortlist

* TROOPINGTHECOLOUR – Scrapes on but unsafe
* ITLAAQ – I wanted more runs this season
* ODIN4S RAVEN – Keep him on side
* HONG KONG ISLAND – Another to shortlist

Selection

Split Stake Bet

* ODIN4S RAVEN 20/1 +
* HONG KONG ISLAND 20/1 +
* ITLAAQ 18/1 +

Put 33% stakes on each at Betfair SP is as simple as way as any to play these.

Best Wishes
Guy

Posted under horse racing tips

A Poor Saturday

There is an Intolerable ammount of Racing today and
on days like this I never finish the messages the clock
finishes me. I could have stretched two extra messages
from the races I havent had a chance to look at. There
are two pieces in the Racing Post about how the racing
is particularly difficult today as it’s dominated by large
field handicaps. Unusual for them to acknowledge it but
it’s true. It is Intolerable and any bets and races finished
will be down to a lot of luck. Might be a frustrating and
a bit untidy today. I fear for anyone betting through it all
and rain and non runners make it more dangerous.

I have no firm properly staked advised bet today
for clients or for free blog readers.
You don’t come out ahead in the long run betting
hard when conditions do not suit.

Need something however today..well ponder the below

D o n c a s t e r 2.05

9/4 Mawasem, 9/2 Grey Mirage, 6/1 Warfare, 8/1 Assizes
10/1 Gold City, 10/1 Shamaal Nibras, 10/1 Well Painted
12/1 Chapter Seven, 14/1 Mister Music, 16/1 Kickingthelilly.

* This is a Class 2 3yo handicap over 8f
* These races are rare and a tiny sample size
* WELL PAINTED – Dont like him from 7f maiden
* Not with just the single run
* GOLD CITY – All seasonal debutants were lighter raced
* KICKINGTHELILLY is too exposed
* MISTER MUSIC – Surely beaten too far 7 days ago
* The above horses are ones I’d avoid
* ASSIZES – Unsafe well beaten on seasonal debut
* SHAMAAL NIBRAS – Not convinced and bad draw

Shortlist

* GREY MIRAGE – An option but don’t like the absence
* MAWASEM – I dont like the record of 3yo maidens much
* None have won with just 2 runs or from 7f races
* He has to be a positive but I cant match him to a winner
* WARFARE – I can forgive him a defeat at York
* CHAPTER SEVEN – Better than he showed last time
* Comes from a hot race where he never had a good position
* Nothing went right and hampered and eased once beaten
* CHAPTER SEVEN could run better than expected

Selection

CHAPTER SEVEN 12/1 Each Way
at betfred bet365 Coral PaddyPower

.

Posted under horse racing tips

Derby Day Betting

It’s Derby Day and whilst the big race is a poor shadow of
the race it used to be we have 7 meetings today and simply
a Tsunani of Racing deliberately designed to trip us up. No
chance of covering it all. Just doing what I can where I can.

I have ended up in a lot of quality handicaps in my profiles for full members today. Several lower class  races have had to be ignored with so much of it. The Catterick and Beverley cards don’t get much coverage and given time limitations  it’s the Classier races that dominate.

The profit built up this year is looking healthy and there’s no long term issues at all.  Still aiming for a record breaking season.
It’s in the Short term we could do with a winner and to do that will probably
mean having to sort out a difficult Class 2 Handicap today which is dangerous
and intimidating and I think I have three options today worth considering.

My favoured two options today I have kept for full members as firm advised tips.
Available in the member right now if you care to join up.

Third in my pecking order today is below for you.

Epsom  4.50

5/1 King4s Warrior, 11/2 Communicator
7/1 Spanish Duke, 8/1 A Boy Named Suzi, 8/1 Quiz Mistress
9/1 Fiery Lad, 11/1 Crassula, 12/1 Incendo, 12/1 O Ma Lad
14/1 Oceanway, 16/1 Seaside Sizzler, 20/1 Layline
20/1 Lyssio, 20/1 Mezzanisi, 40/1 Toughness Danon.

This is quite a nasty 12f handicap. It is a Class 2 race and it is a long way
from the comfort zone. I had a proper look at  the Draw. Its complicated.
I wouldn’t rule any out but I think the best place to be is Stalls 3-12 and its
the very low or the very high stalls that may suffer. KING4S WARRIOR
doesnt interest me. His draw wont help him but he’s 5 and he comes from a
10f race with 1-2 runs this season. No 5 year old did that when unexposed
and I felt he was generally unsafe. Not keen on QUIZ MISTRESS as a filly
with just one run so far this season. She wont find it easy to win again with
just one run. OCEANWAY is another 4yo filly and I didnt see much in her
profile I liked up in distance. I hate LAYLINE’s break of 70 days.
I don’t want INCENDO as an exposed debutant.
Horses going from Class 5 to Class 2 races like O MA LAD
are more often that not outclassed. SEASIDE SIZZLER and
A BOY NAMED SUZI are seasonal debutants. Neither have
terrible profiles and debutants can and do win. I just dont see a good enough
reason to bet either and feel there are some more likely winners.
FIERY LAD looks a bit too riSky after such a hammering last time out.

* SPANISH DUKE – I can see why he may want another run
* I can find a winner like him though so he is respected
* COMMUNICATOR – Comfortably the best profile

* Male horses aged 4
* One race this season
* Absent more than a Month
* Between 7-12 career starts
* Coming from a 12f Handicap
* Horses with this profile were 3-4 finishing W W 7 W
* COMMUNICATOR Has this profile

Selection – COMMUNICATOR

4/1 betfred – blue sq – Betfair

 

 

The Derby – Epsom  4.00

Not a race I am playing in myself.

My quick views for what they are worth.

The Derby is a shadow of its former self and sadly one
that has deteriorated as a spectacle. I think CAMELOT
will probably win. I have never been sold on BONFIRE
and don’t see enough about him to oppose this favourite.
I don’t like MAIN SEQUENCE having already raced at
12f last time. ASTROLOGY could run well and may be
the danger but I personally wouldn’t oppose CAMELOT
to win it.

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on June 2, 2012