A late non runner last weekend which is always a bit of an anti climax.

We are heading of to Newcastle today for our free horse racing tip.

N e w c a s t l e  3.05

For Live Odds See

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-07-28/newcastle/15-05/betting/

* The Beeswing is a 7f Handicap for 0-91 rated horses
* The Draw may well play a big part in this race
* Since 2011 there are 17 handicaps here with 9 + runners
* Horses drawn 1-2 had a 0-30 record
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 had a 1-46 record
* The winners had the following stall numbers
* 11 11 5 7 13 11 10 7 13 13 13 10 6 3 12 4 8
* I think you want a high draw based on handicaps here
* ROKER PARK – I dont like his draw in stall 1
* ROKER PARK is an exposed 7yo from a 6f handicap
* Similar horses had a dissapointing 4-145 record
* All 4 winners had 6 or more runs that year
* ROKER PARK only has 5 runs this year
* Only 1 carried more than 9st as well
* I wouldnt hang him for that profile but its not strong
* Certainly not strong enough to ignore his draw
* POLISH WORLD is an exposed 8 year old
* He comes from 7f and has no form beyond Class 3
* There were 3 winners like that but not like him
* None were beaten more than 4 lengths last time
* POLISH WORLD was beaten over 9 lengths
* That makes him unsafe and I have other issues
* This is a career high mark and he is 0-9 in this Class
* As he is Drawn 2 he has a lot to prove
* Newcastle have had 44 of these 7f races in July-August
* Relevant thas at all 44 winners had 3 + runs that year
* Those with 1-2 runs that year were just 0-48
* TIGER REIGNS has to go exposed and 1 run this season
* DUBAWI SOUND also has 1 run this year absent 98 days
* I looked at 4 year olds like him
* I found a 1-23 record with 1 run this year and a break
* That winner had 9 runs and he has just four
* That winner had Listed Class and he doesnt
* DUBAWI SOUND is therefore quite unsafe
* Mentioned Newcastle had 45 of these races
* None of the 45 winners had under 5 starts like him
* DUBAWI SOUND doesnt offer me enough
* TED4S BROTHER – Unsafe profile and out of the weights
* Poor last run and not much backclass to bounce back
* NO POPPY is an exposed 4yo filly
* There were just a handful of those types winning
* None were beaten anywhere near as far as her
* She’s never won from this mark or in this class
* KING OF EDEN is 6 and won a 7f handicap last time
* I looked at exposed 6 year olds doing that
* Slightly surprised to find just a 1-35 record
* That winner had more races that season
* That winner was also a female unlike him
* She also ran within a week as well
* KING OF EDEN doesnt come out that well for me
* He’s just won off 79 and 82
* May be asking a lot for him to win off 90 today
* Especially in a Class he hasnt won in before
* STEVIE THUNDER is an exposed 7 year old
* He was beaten more than 10 lengths last time
* Looked at similar 7yo’s with 1-2-3-4 runs that year
* I found 1 similar winner to STEVIE THUNDER
* That horse had 9st 6lbs some 8lbs less
* STEVIE THUNDER has only got an average profile
* He hasnt won from this rating before either

S h o r t l i s t

* FATHSTA won a claimer recently
* I cant match him exactly from a Claimer as a 7yo
* Prepared to forgive him that as he does have positives
* Fit and running well and he has dropped in the weights
* FATHSTA I would see as a neutral profile
* I would worry about this stiff track suiting him

* AL MUHEER – Lots to like and a pleasing profile
* He may be a 7yo but he can win from this mark
* Hard to catch right he must be kept on side

Selection

AL MUHEER 8/1

Win Bet

Newmarket 3.20 – Unusual race but I dont like the favourite
Newmarket 3.20 – PRICELESS JEWEL is up in trip from 6f -7f
Newmarket 3.20 – None did that without 7 runs and 4 that year
Newmarket 3.20 – PRICELESS JEWEL has 4 and 2 this year
Newmarket 3.20 – I would oppose her

Ascot 3.25 – MAUREEN is the clear statistical choice

7/1 widely available but a bit more on Betfair

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Posted under horse racing tips

Newmarket 3.10

For live market odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-07-21/newmarket/15-10/betting/

The Game plan was simple. Strong each way bet around 4/1
but there have been two viscious non runners. Both horses
were unfit and had horrible profiles and were fancied which
made the market for SET TO MUSIC. Now we are looking
at a win bet around 2/1. Still going with her as she faces just unfit
and inferior horses. Comes from a brilliant trial race I have to
put her up and I think she should be too strong.

* The Aphrodite Stakes is for fillies over 12f
* Never an easy race I did think this years was interesting
* I looked at past renewals for horses with 1 run this year
* The last to do that was back in 2003
* There were 2 winners overall with 1 run this year in 18 renewals
* These 2 horses were very lightly raced with 4-5 career starts
* I would be wary betting once raced horses with many more runs
* DORCAS LANE has 1 run this year and 9 career starts
* I oppose her as I want more runs this year after 9 races
* AMBIVALENT has 1 run this year but is lightly raced
* My objection to her is much simpler its class
* She has limited backclass and rarely do handicappers win this
* HAZEL LAVERY – Doesnt offer much. Doubtfull Stayer.
* BOLIVIA – The 1 winner from handicaps came from Class 2
* She doesnt appeal to me from a Class 4 handicap.

S e l e c t i o n

* SET TO MUSIC comes from the Lancashire Oaks
* Thats a brilliant trial race for this
* The 1998 1999 2001 2003 2009 winners came from there
* She is well raced this year with 4 runs
* Recent winners had 2 3 4 3 2 3 runs this year
* She has that but look at her 4 market rivals
* The Favourite has only 1 run this year
* The 3rd favourite has only 1 run this year
* The 4th favourite is absent 630 days
* The 5th favourite has only 1 run this year
* SET TO MUSIC stands out to me

Selection

SET TO MUSIC 2/1 at paddypower

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Posted under horse racing tips

Newmarket  3.20  The July Cup

Latest Odds for this race are at

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-07-14/newmarket/15-20/betting/

* The July Cup is a Group 1 race over 6f.
* This race is dominated by horses aged 3-4-5-6
* The last winner aged 7 or more was back in 1938
* ORTENSIA fails that as a 7yo and she is a mare
* GENKI fails that as a 8yo and is outclassed
* Recent winners raced 5 14 10 18 6 37 5 12 5 20 7 times
* I dont want an exposed horse as they rarely win
* THE CHEKA is exposed and rejected
* HAWKEYETHENOO is also exposed
* He comes from a Handicap no winners did that
* DANDY BOY has the same problem
* He is exposed and comes from a handicap as well
* KRYPTON FACTOR – Too exposed for a 4yo
* 21 of the Last 23 winners ran within a Month
* The two that didnt ran with absences of 45 and 54 days
* SEPOY fails that absent 105 days
* The next longest absence is 30 days
* SEPOY has been absent 3 times longer than all others
* MAYSON – Two poor runs in a row put me off
* He just seems to have gone off the boil
* I looked at all the recent winners aged 3
* They had the following career starts
* 5 5 6 7 5 7 7 8 4
* FIRE LILY has 11 and doesnt fit that well
* REPLY is 3 and comes from 7f race
* None managed that with 5 or more career runs
* REPLY has 8 and looks unsafe
* STRONG SUIT is similar to 2005 winner Pastoral Pursuits
* He is 4 has 1 run this year well beaten in the Queen Anne
* The 2005 winner had the same profile
* What bothers me most is all other horses raced more
* They all have 2 + runs this year and he doesnt
* STRONG SUIT hasnt ran at 6f since he was a 2yo
* I think that will catch him out with 1 run
* LIBRANNO has a small chance
* He is a bit exposed for a 4 year old
* I can live with that but the ground isnt ideal
* SIRIUS PROSPECT is 4 and has a chance
* He is not unlike 1993 winner Hamas
* It puts me off he was 50/1 in a Group 1 last time

S e l e c t i o n

* SOCIETY ROCK is fine statistically
* He is very close to the 2005 winner Marchand D’Or
* His main problem is he starts slowly these days
* He could lose ground at the start which is a worry
* I would trust the trainer to have sorted that
* He has said he wouldnt run if it was a problem
* I think he should be winning this
* None of his main rivals are without serious doubts

7/2 available at blue square and victor chandler

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Posted under horse racing tips

I do have a firm bet for full members today which runs in the 5.20 at Beverly

Member access in immediate if you join up at
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

If the above is my gold bet for today on the free blog here I am providing my next best.

Sandown 2.00

For Latest Live Odds See

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-07-07/sandown-park/14-05/betting/

* This is a Group 3 over 5f for all aged horses
* Horss that came from handicaps underperformed
* Very few won and those that did were certain types
* ELUSIVITY isnt safe aged 4 from a handicap
* I also think he has the worst of the draw
* HUMIDOR comes from a handicap
* Not keen on him as an older horse absent 135 days
* MEDICEAN MAN comes from a 6f handicap
* No winners did that aged 6 or more
* No winners did that when exposed either
* TRIPLE ASPECT fails the same angles
* CALEDONIA LADY is a 3yo filly
* The 3 winning fillies aged 3 of similar races had 4 4 7 runs
* CALEDONIA LADY has 17 and may be too exposed
* DUCHESS DORA is an exposed mare from 5f
* The only similar winners had far more runs that season
* NIGHT CARNATION won this last year asa 3yo filly
* Now as a 4yo filly we have two winners like her
* Both however dropped from 6f races
* NIGHT CARNATION doesnt and isnt an exact match
* DINKUM DIAMOND looks underraced this year
* He looks short of class for a race like this
* CONFESSIONAL lost by 34 lengths just 7 days ago
* I cant find a winner overcoming such a defeat so recently
* ELNAWIN comes from 6f with 2 runs that season
* Both winners doing that were younger than him
* They both had under 13 runs as well
* ELNAWIN has 20 runs and may need another this season
* Or another race but Richard Hughes is bullish about him
* FREE ZONE is a 3yo with 13 runs
* He has never raced in Group Class before
* I looked at all 3 year olds without any Group form
* There were 3 winners aged 3 like that
* Those that had under 7 runs were 3-16
* Those that had 7 + runs were 0-20
* They were all lightly raced with 4-5-6 runs
* FREE ZONE has 13 and doesnt fit that well
* I’m saying after 13 runs he should have Group class form

S h o r t l i s t

* JUDGE 4N JURY is an 8yo
* None have won this race as old as he is
* I found 2 similar races won by 8yo’s elsewhere
* Because of that I cant rule him out
* I’d rather have seen an 8yo win this race though
* His recent run is a strong help
* So to is excellent track form as well

* SPIRIT QUARTZ is hard to read
* 9 of his 15 career starts were in Italy
* I have no problem with his general profile though
* He has shown the required Class
* SPIRIT QUARTZ is a big runner

Selection

JUDGE 4N JURY 7/1 Win Bet boylesports – blue square – stan james
SPIRIT QUARTZ 5/1 Saver Bet william hill – stan james – betfred – bet365

( saver bet just a bet staked to win back stake on main bet if saver wins )

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Posted under horse racing tips