A short spell of losers on our free blog of late.

Will we stick up an odds on horse?

Nope.

Long term value is the name of the game and we are on a few big priced horses today at Goodwood.

G o o d w o o d   2.45

For Live odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-08-25/goodwood/14-45/betting/

* This is a 7f Handicap for 0-109 rated horses
* I looked at every Class 2 Handicap in August- September
* Since the stalls were renumbered there have been 36 races
* Horses drawn 14 or more in these races were 0-42
* The very high draws have a lot to prove
* FULBRIGHT has one of the worst draws in Stall 18
* I looked at 3 year olds in all similar races from 8f
* There were some winners but none had his weight
* Only one 3yo won a mile race last time
* That horse had 17lbs less weight and was lighter raced
* Draw and Profile worry me about FULBRIGHT
* MABAIT – The worst draw and his profile is unsafe
* PRIMAEVAL – Exposed with absence and a bad draw
* I can resist PRIMAEVAL
* DECENT FELLA – Felt he needed another run this year
* Drawn 17 wont help and he isnt for me either
* BRONZE PRINCE is regressing fast
* JUSTONEFORTHEROAD hasnt been running well enough
* Dont want a horse with just 1 run this season
* JOHNNY CASTLE and WEBBOW look wrong
* Exposed horses from 6f races are just 2-79
* None of these had under 7 runs that season
* IMPERIAL GUEST has just 4 and looks unsafe
* Horses aged 4 from 6f races had a 1-35 record
* Those with 7 or more runs doing this are 0-28
* POWERFUL PRESENCE is also exposed up in trip
* Aged 6 I felt his profile was unimpressive
* BERTIEWHITTLE fails this which is a worry
* Not a negative but I cant match him to a winner
* BERTIEWHITTLE had excuses last time so respect him
* THE CONFESSOR won last time out
* Not many follow up his age and I wasnt persuaded
* I wanted a more recent run and a few other chances
* My angles suggest few like him manage to win again
* GATEPOST didnt run well enough last time
* ARNOLD LANE comes from a 3yo handicap over 7f
* The vast majority of winners doing that had under 9 runs
* ARNOLD LANE is a bit exposed with 11 runs
* Not having a recent run doesnt help either
* I’d just see him as a positive but I wanted more

Possibles

* RAKAAN isnt well drawn in stall 16
* I thought his profile was acceptable
* 33/1 is a big price for a horse with his profile
* His Draw and attitude are less convincing
* WHITE FROST is an unexposed 4yo
* His profile is far from a disaster and he is shortlisted
* At 25/1 and more I’d see him as a big price
* The vibes last time were that he was ungenuine
* FIELD OF DREAM – Neutral profile keep him on side
* Held by some but did have excuses and profiles acceptable
* The more rain that comes hurts him
* CITRUS STAR – Enough to shortlist and well drawn
* He wont want the rain either

S h o r t l i s t

* DUCAL is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* He has Class 2 form and lacks a run in 2 weeks
* I found 1 similar winner to him

* REDACT – Stall 15 could be better but respect him
* I found a winner like him and I’d give him a chance

Selection

DUCAL 16/1 Win Bet     victor chandler
REDACT 25/1 Win Bet    bet365 – william hill

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Posted under horse racing tips

Haydock 3.25 – LICENCE TO TILL 7/1 Each Way

I can’t pretend he is well treated and he has plenty
of weight as well but there are positives. There are
some clear cut negatives against him. Its a sensibly
sized field. He is fitter than most and takes a good
drop in class here from a 0-107 to a 0-87. He has
won his only race here and likes a left hand bend.
He could be underestimated here and worth a bet.

For live bookmaker odds see below

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-08-11/haydock-park/15-25/betting/

* This is a Class 2 handicap over 10f
* Not keen on the 3 year olds in this race
* OPINION was beaten a long way for a 3yo last time
* He had excuses but no 3yo overcame a bad defeat like him
* INVISIBLE HUNTER is 3 an dhas just 1 run this season
* Not keen on his profile having to come up from an 8f maiden
* HAYLAMAN – No 4yo won with just 1-2 runs that year
* SPANISH PLUME – Not for me from a Class 5 to a Class 2
* BARREN BROOK – Unsafe profile exposed from 8f
* ART SCHOLAR – His profile is fundamentally fine
* The only flaw is all similar horses had less weight
* He will need a career best today and has plenty to do
* LICENCE TO TILL – Most to offer for me
* Profile wise he is fine but perhaps too much weight
* This is a very welcome drop in class though
* All his opponents have serious flaws

Shortlist

My angles tell me LICENCE TO TILL has the leading
chance ahead of Art Scholar and he may have enough
class to defy the weight in this race.

Selection – LICENCE TO TILL 7/1 Each Way at bet365 – boylesports

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Posted under horse racing tips

We are off to Goodwood today for the usual Saturday free horse racing tip

Goodwood   2.40

For live market odds see
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-08-04/goodwood/14-40/betting/
I had this 14f handicap pencilled in early as race that may well have provided a bet.
I like FRANCISCAN 8/1 Each Way.
Not really a statistical choice but this is a progressive horse from a stable with a great record in the race.
He dissapointed last time but hated very soft ground.
That last run is why is isnt perfect statistically but I want to overlook that.
Had there been faster ground at Goodwood I’d be making him a stronger bet.
Happy for a smaller bet though but I have shortlisted a few too many.

* This is a 14f Class 2 Handicap for all aged horses
* Goodwood has had 15 renewals of this race

Last year we had a Stat buster win. That was PETARA BAY
who was older than any past winner and more exposed as well.
I am going to ignore that as I see last years winner as a fluke.
There was a fancied horse that was Killed in the race and two
other strongly fancied horses were knocked over and lost all chance.
It was a very rough race and I think thats helped the Stat buster win
and he only did that in a photo.
Therefore I’m going to stay with the standard trends which are quite strong.

* These races usually go to younger unexposed horses
* Horses aged 6 or more only won last years race
* Horses aged 3-4-5 dominate this contest
* No exposed horse has ever won this race (All 60 lost)
* They struggle in similar races and none were beaten far lto
* Horses aged 4 need a good recent run
* Those beaten more than 10 lengths last time out are 0-66
* Horses that came from 14f races mysteriously struggle
* Many came from 12f or from 2m races
* None though ran over this 14f distance last time out
* Horses doing that were 0-52
* I suspect that is because improvement is found at the trip
* ROXY FLYER – Rejected as mare with 1 run this season
* PETARA BAY is underraced and exposed aged 8
* THE BETCHWORTH KID is underraced and exposed aged 7
* MOTIVADO – Needs another run this year for me
* HARLESTONE TIMES also wants another race
* SPICE FAIR is wrong exposed and out of form
* SOLAR SKY –  94 day absence hurts him
* LIFE AND SOUL is exposed and I am wary
* Career high mark and he comes from 14f a bad sign
* SHUBAAT – His absence is longer than any past winner
* Didnt do enough last time to interest me
* LATE TELEGRAPH – 1997 winner was similar
* He was a 4yo from a 2m race with 5-6 runs
* That horse won last time and had 5 runs that year
* LATE TELEGRAPH lost easily and has just 3 runs

Shortlist

* VASILY is hard to read
* She is also 4 from a 12f race and has 4 runs this year
* Profile fine other than none like him won last time out
* Throw in a Months absence after a win and he is unsafe

* VERY GOOD DAY – Neutral profile
* He’s 5 and won a 2m race last time
* No 5yo won last time but none have tried to do it
* No horse has had a close enough profile to compare

* A BOY NAMED SUZI is 4 and comes from 12f
* He has Class 2 form and 3 runs that season
* The 2009 was very similar so he’s shortlisted

* FRANCISCAN is 4 from 12f with 3 runs this year
* He has a similar profile as well
* On the negtaive side he lost by too far last time
* On the positive side he hated the ground last time
* His trainer also has a brilliant record in it
* Look at Luca Cumani’s  7 runners in this race
* They finished W 2 14 W 2 W 2

Cumani was bullish about FRANCISCAN at Haydock last time
and said he was very progressive.
He also warned about him on soft ground and said that wasnt sure to suit.
This wont be as bad as Haydock and I think he can return to form and win this.

S e l e c t i o n

FRANCISCAN 8/1 Each Way
at william hill – bet365 – stanjames

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Posted under horse racing tips