Haydock   5.15

A racing tip for Haydock today

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 5f
* SHOLAAN is 3 and comes down in trip
* I wanted more runs this year and couldnt match him
* He is not a negative but I see him as unsafe
* SHOLAAN could also bounce with 1 run since June
* Having a run 7 days ago  could also come too quickly
* ELUSIVITY – Not safe statistically from a Group 1 race
* KYLEAKIN LASS – Hard to see this 3yo filly winning again
* Especially as exposed as she is and up in class
* WEST COAST DREAM – Not well in and 1 run since July
* BEAU MISTRAL – Too exposed as a 3yo filly
* FACE THE PROBLEM is 4 and comes from 6f
* He is woefully short of runs this year doing that
* All 4yos doing that had at least 7 runs and he has just 4
* He has been put up 5lbs for getting beaten last time
* He’s not proven on the ground either
* LONG AWAITED – Not sure about his draw in stall 16
* Since 2007 there were 49 races at 5f here with 10 + runners
* Horses drawn 14 or more had a 2-57 record
* Both those winners were drawn 16 like him
* However each race had many non runners reducing the field
* Both horses were running effectively from stall 12
* Statistically I have problems with her
* Looked at 4 year olds with Class 2 form without a recent run
* I found a weak 1-47 record and that winner wasnt unexposed
* Reluctant to ignore him as he loves soft and is very fast
* My stats say No and the Draw also undermines his chance
* STEPS – Not convinced – on a career high mark from stall 1
* Profile wise he is just a bit short of what I want
* STEPS isnt too far away though so I respect him

Shortlist

* JEDWARD – Stats say no – didnt do enough last time
* I’d keep her on side though and promote her weak profile

* CHEVETON has a much better all round profile than most
* He won this race in 2010 with 8lbs more weight

Selection

Each Way CHEVETON 13/2
bet365 – william hill – VC

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

The Ayr Gold Cup

The Ayr Gold Cup is too difficult to consider for a strong bet.

I am putting up my thoughts today on it however not because
it is the strongest advice I have for full members today
but beacuse it is the race a few of you have asked about.

I have shortlisted six and it was Alben Star at 20/1 that did best on my angles.

For live market odds on this race see here ==> Live Odds

* The Ayr Gold Cup is a 6f Handicap
* There has been 19 renewals of this race since 1993

* I think the following statistics are worth following

* Horses from 5f races struggled and should be opposed
* None of todays 5f horses have good profiles so these are out
* BOASTFUL – CHEVIOT -BORDERLESCOTT

* Horses aged 8 or more have yet to win in decades
* JOHANNES – REGAL PARADE fail that

* Horses aged 6 or more won just 3 renewals since the 1980’s
* None were absent as long as WAFFLE or CAPTAIN RAMIUS

* Horses aged 6 that won all ran within 17 days since the 1980’s
* THE CHEKA – BRAE HILL fail that

* BEACON LODGE is underraced for a 7yo

* MISS WORK OF ART is underraced for a 3yo filly

* No exposed horse won absent 7 + weeks
* RODRIGO DE TORRES fails that

* Avoid horses aged 5 or more absent 7 weeks or more
* MIRZA – TARIQ TOO fails that

* Horses winning last time absent a month are wrong
* PINTURA has that to overcome that

* MORACHE MUSIC – Shaky and unsafe absent 70 days
* Found a 4yo like him with a stone less weight
* That winner didnt come from a Group race like him

* DOC HAY is 5 and won last time out
* MAAREK is 5 and won last time out
* Horses aged 5 doing that were 0-22
* Both are hard to match in all similar races too
* DOC HAY has a career high mark to overcome as well
* MAAREK has ran just once in 73 days
* He has to do that carrying a massive weight as well

* HAWKEYETHENOO comes from a Group 1 race
* The 2007 winner did that but he was an un exposed 4yo
* HAWKEYETHENOO is exposed and 6 years old
* No other horses won similar races from Group races
* HAWKEYETHENOO also has a career high mark
* He’s raced just once in 49 days as well and Stall 3 isnt ideal

* SHOLAAN – Difficult task as a 3yo absent 84 days
* He has 4 runs this year and no 3yo won this race like him
* I can find a 3yo winning absent 78 days
* That was 2007 Silver Cup winner Utmost Respect
* He was lighter raced though and won Group 2 races
* SHOLAAN – Not quite right for me
* Also have to consider stall 2 as low numbers are unsafe

S h o r t l i s t

* PEARL ICE is a lightly raced 4yo absent 84 days
* Two Ayr Gold Cup winners were not unlike him
* They had 7 week absences in 1996 and 2001
* PEARL ICE does have 12 weeks though
* Hard to know whether 84 days is too long or not

* OUR JONATHAN won this last year from the same stall
* He has the same absence and comes from the same trial race
* The 2010 winner was an exposed 5yo absent 28 days
* OUR JONATHAN only has a week more off the track
* I think he has enough to shortlist
* He does have far fewer runs this year
* There are more doubts about his current form as well

* COLONEL MAK is an exposed 5yo absent a month
* I would have much prefered a run within a month
* I could overlook 35 days but exposed 5yo’s rarely win this
* That said the 2010 winner was an exposed 5yo
* He was absent 28 days only a week more so he’s in
* COLONEL MAK has a career high mark though

* SHROPSHIRE is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* I like that profile as he has a recent run
* I found a couple of similar winners in other races
* I just wish he had more than 1 run in 49 days

* LOUIS THE PIOUS is an unexposed 4yo
* He has a months break and Class 2 form
* I can live with that profile
* The 2007 Silver Cup winner was like him

* ALBEN STAR is an unexposed 4yo
* He comes from 6f and has Class 2 form
* ALBEN STAR hasnt raced in a Month either
* Thats a fine profile as the 1996 and 2001 winners shared it
* He’s been Running well in big handicaps all year
* ALBEN STAR looks the best profile to me

Selection

ALBEN STAR 20/1

Each Way at 20/1 paying 1/4 for 5 places at bet365
Same available at sky and stan james but bet365 will give you best odds guaranteed

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

Newcastle   3.10
For live market odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-09-15/newcastle/15-10/betting/

This is a 6f handicap. I havent had a chance to look
at all the runners but WILDCAT WIZARD is so well
handicapped it’s so hard to see past him. He is one of
those classic types that are running themselves fit at
the same time they are dropping down the handicap.
He’s placed on Class 2 handicaps in the 90’s and has
come down significantly  in the weights and now may
be the time to catch him. Last time was his best race
of the season. He has a recent race and statistically
he’s fine. I havent looked at many of these though
but I felt Hills Of Dakota was unsafe and I question
the fitness of Who’s Shirl. I think he should have a
leading chance so it’s WILDCAT WIZARD each way.

Selection – WILDCAT WIZARD 9/2  each way

at stan james

 

Posted under horse racing tips

Ascot 3.45

For live market odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-09-08/ascot/15-45/betting/

* This is a 7f Handicap in Class 2
* Looked at all similar races at this time of year
* IMPERIAL GUEST won last time out
* All the winners that won having done that were younger
* No 6yo followed up a win so not convinced
* I looked at 3 year olds in these races
* Those that had Group Class form were 0-59
* ARNOLD LANE fails that
* BANNOCK also fails that
* CASTLES IN THE AIR I see as underraced this year
* EXCELLENT GUEST is also technically underraced as well
* Both of those exposed types would be better with 1-2 more runs
* Horses from Listed races had a 0-43 record
* SIRIUS PROSPECT fails that and has plenty to prove
* SMARTY SOCKS also fails that and is an 8yo
* Horses aged 8 or more struggle in these races
* SMARTY SOCKS did win this with more weight last year
* Because of that I would see him as more positive than negative
* PRIMAEVAL is risky with a 78 day absence
* No horses with 13 + career starts won absent 7 + weeks
* GLOBAL VILLAGE also fails that
* FIELD OF DREAM – I’d like more recent encouragement
* BERTIEWHITTLE looks the one to me
* I looked at exposed 4 year olds
* Coming from a 7f Handicap
* Form in Class 2 before
* Running within 2 weeks
* Beaten under 3 lengths last time
* Similar horses had a 2-7 record in these races
* That included the 2002 winner of this race

Selection

BERTIEWHITTLE Each Way at 9/1
bet365 – victor chandler – william hill – betfred

 

 

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Posted under horse racing tips

Sandown  5.35

For Latest Live Odds See

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-09-01/sandown-park/17-35/betting/

* This is a 10f Handicap for 0-80 rated horses
* Lets start with the Draw and 15 similar races since 2001
* 13 of the 15 winners were drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8
* Horses drawn in Stalls 1-8 have a 13-120 record
* Horses drawn in Stalls 9-16 have a 2-64 record
* Being drawn Under 9 gives you a far better chance
* No winners were drawn 14 or more
* CAPE EXPLORER – His profile is just about acceptable
* Wasnt enough for me to ignore Stall 15 though
* TALK OF THE NORTH – Unsafe profile and draw
* ICEBUSTER is out with a run this season
* SIM SALA BIM – Not right first time out
* HOT SPICE is underraced this year
* HIP HIP HOORAY looks worth opposing
* First of all she isnt  well drawn
* Shes a mare winning an 8f race last time
* No Female horse did that older than 3 and she is 6
* Without a recent race she leaves me cold
* POETIC LORD has problems from 7f
* He is a bit too exposed to be doing that
* Every winner aged 8 + had at least Class 2 form
* EAGLE NEBULA only has Class 4 form and is out
* QUIXOTE  3 and drops from 12f
* He’s a bit exposed doing that and has limited backclass
* I needed far fewer runs or more backclass to match him
* BRIGADOON is 5 and won last time
* I needed more backclass and runs this year

Acceptable Profiles

* KNOW NO FEAR scrapes through but isnt for me
* Huge doubt whether he will stay this far up the hill

* HIGHLAND DUKE – Acceptable profile but no more
* He should improve but he needs to

* MIZBAH is 3 and drops from 12f
* Almost all 3yo’s doing that had under 13 runs he has 14
* There was 1 winner reasonably close to him
* MIZBAH – Not a strong profile but enough to shortlist

* HURAKAN – Definate chance statistically
* Not keen a 7lbs claimer rides though

S e l e c t i o n

* NELSON4S BAY has a very strong profile
* NELSON4S BAY is 3 and comes up in distance from 8f
* Looked at similar types with Class 2 form and 5-8 runs
* Those with 1-5 runs this year and not beaten too far
* Similar horses had a strong 4-11 record
* Those with 9st or more were 4-8
* NELSON4S BAY stands out amongst these

7/1 each way at ladbrokes – blue square

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips