Doncaster Racing Tip

One from our profiles and previews message section again today.

 

Doncaste r  3.10

For live market odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-11-10/doncaster/15-10/betting/
* This is a Listed race over 6f
* Doncaster has had 20 renewals of this race
* I looked at all races here over 6f with 12 + runners
* Its very clear Stalls 1-2-3 are the weakest
* Since 2011 they are just 1-81 in 30 races
* JOHANNES has the worst draw in Stall 1
* No winners were aged 8 or more anyway and he is a 9yo
* SIRIUS PROSPECT is not drawn well in stall 3
* Statisticallly he’s ok with the 2003 winner reasonably similar
* Only 1 winner was like him and that draw wont help
* THUNDERBALL is also badly drawn
* I dont see enough in his profile to overlook that
* Horses from 5f races have underperformed over the years
* They have won just 1 renewal since 1993
* Their overall score is 4 wins from 75 runners
* Horses aged 3 that came from 5f races were 0-28
* JACK DEXTER has that against him today
* He’s improving fast but as yet no 3yo won this from 5f
* I looked at horses that came from 5f handicaps
* There was only 1 winner from 38 that tried
* That was an unexposed 4yo in 2010
* No exposed horses have won this from a 5f race
* EVEN STEVENS – DOC HAY – MASS RALLY all fail that
* YORK GLORY looks underraced this year from 5f
* No filly like KATLA has won this from a 5f race
* VALENCHA was beaten further last time than all 20 winners
* BEST TRIP looks outclassed
* Horses from 7f races had a poor 3-82 record
* None were mares like GOURAY GIRL
* None were as inexperienced as TAKE COVER
* LADIES ARE FOREVER is a 4yo filly
* All 29 of those lost and I cant match her to a winner
* JUSTINEO is wrong as a 3yo from 7f
* There were 8 winners aged 3 in the last 20 renewals
* ULTRASONIC is a 3yo fily from the Boadicea Stakes
* The 1999 and 2001 winners had that same profile
* Both of those winners had Grade 1-2 form
* ULTRASONIC doesnt have that
* The only 3yo fillies to win without Group form were 1988 +1991
* Thats a long time ago but at least it did happen
* PLACE IN MY HEART has exactly the same problem
* Shes a 3yo filly with no form beyond a Listed Class race
* ETON RIFLES is 7 but so were many winners
* They all ran within 2 weeks though and he doesnt
* 3 had far more runs that season and more backclass
* ETON RIFLES – I wanted a recent run for a 7yo
* THE CHEKA is an exposed 6yo without a run in 2 weeks
* The 1992 2000 and 2008 winners were similar
* THE CHEKA would have to make the shortlist

Shortlist

SIRIUS PROSPECT – Profile is shortlisted but draws a worry
ULTRASONIC – Has done enough to get on the shortlist
THE CHEKA – Pound for Pound the best profile

Selections to a nominal £10 total stake

£6 Win THE CHEKA 14/1  Coral bet365

£2 Saver SIRIUS PROSPECT 11/2 BoyleSports bet 365

£2 Saver ULTRASONIC 13/2 bet365 victor chandler

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on November 10, 2012

Newmarket Horse Racing Tip

We are off to Newmarket this afternoon for our free blog horse racing tip.

Also note the post at link below however which provides an example of the new format full member message.

It is a good example of how free blog and full member messages differ and will provide you with a much better feel for the full service proper.

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Newmarket  3.40

For live market odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-11-03/newmarket/15-40/betting/

* The Ben Marshall Stakes is a listed race over a Mile.
* There are 13 past renewals of this rce
* Every past winner with a rating was rated 100 or more
* MIA MADONNA – DIVERTING – MRS GREELEY fail that badly
* FIRE SHIP is only rated 97 and could just lack the class
* No past winner came from a 3yo handicap like him
* It was only a Class 3 race and that may not be enough
* FIRE SHIP – I wont be surprised if he is placed though
* FRENCH NAVY has had just 3 runs this season
* I looked at older horses aged 4 or more and they all had more runs
* I see him underraced this year over an inadequate trip
* He hasnt progressed after a nasty injury last year
* QUICK WIT comes from a good trial race
* He was beaten too far in that for comfort
* No horses has won this after a poor last run
* SWEDISH SAILOR only has 2 runs and 1 run this season
* Coming down in trip is a big worry with 1 run this year
* The only winners down in trip all ahd 4 + runs that season
* SWEDISH SAILOR falls short for me
* Horses coming from 7f races have a poor record
* 1n 13 renewals horses from 7f or shorter were 1-66
* That winner had more than the hint off fluke about it
* I’d argue coming from 7f is not a good thing in this race
* RED JAZZ does that and I am unconvinced about him
* Not sure he likes a field as big as this or likes this 8f trip
* RED JAZZ is exposed and only 1 of the 13 winners had 20 + runs
* DANCE AND DANCE is also exposed and comes from 7f
* 12 of the 13 winners were unexposed and ran at 8f or more last time
* DANCE AND DANCE and RED JAZZ are exposed and from 7f
* Neither are like any past winners of this race
* ENTANGLE is impossible to read with no English form
* He’s exposed and I dont see him as any more than a saver
* TRADE COMMISSIONER looks the best bet to me
* I like him as a 4yo thats unexposed
* The bonus is he comes from the Darley Stakes
* Thats the best trial race providing several past winners

Selection

TRADE COMMISSIONER 4/1 Each Way
4/1 in many spots such as best odds guaranteed
bookmakers bet365 William Hill Vc stan james

 

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on November 3, 2012

New Racing Message Format

We have rejigged slightly the style of message on the full member service.

Best way to get a feel for the new style is to show one too you.

Here is a copy of the first new style message from a  few days ago.

Nice 7/1 main bet winner with North Central as it happens.

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Mathematician 1401

One Bet Today

Hereford 2.00 – STEVIE THUNDER 11/8
Lingfield 4.20 -  NORTH CENTRAL 7/1

Win Bet on Both Horses
Each Way Double on Both

I am limiting the analysis today. Three days into the week and already had 21 previews done and I want to back off before the weekend. I found myself drifting into other areas yesterday like the JNWine Champion Chase on Saturday in Ireland. I like the chance to throw in a short message and get a chance to look at different things. To my amazement I find two Lingfield races that look worth spending time over. Its Kempton that offers me little today so I am swerving the night meeting. I have 2 races
at Hereford I like. That makes 4 previews today but I like them all. The Options are below and I have chosen one bet from them.

Todays Options

Hereford 2.00 – STEVIE THUNDER 11/8 Win Bet

Lingfield 3.20 – ALBAMARA – Win Bet 7/1
Lingfield 3.20 – ANISEED – Win Bet 16/1

Hereford 3.30 – COLD KNIGHT 5/1  Each Way

Lingfield 4.20 -  NORTH CENTRAL 7/1 Win Bet

In the end I decided to have a Win Bet on both Stevie Thunder and North Central and an each way double. Cold Knight was a very interesting option but I have to rely on him being ready to win and being Fit. The Split Stake bet  Albamara and Aniseed are in a hard race and I felt a touch too riSky for comfort. I am  keen on Stevie Thunder and although the win part of the bet is hardly lucrative the 4 places for a place is a huge help and he is connected with North Central in a race full of negatives.

M e s s a g e   C h a n g e s

In the next couple of weeks I am going to Manipulate some of the changes I want to see in the messages starting from today.

* Selections and Mentions are now Dropped
* Each Day I am picking at least one Bet from my options
* I will go into more details later on
* There is a New Message Time 11.15am

W e d n e s d a y ‘s   R e v i e w

The three bets I highlighted yesterday returned a loser and two placed bets each way. A Small loss but not too unhappy with it  given I wasn’t certain about much of it. Edgware Road lost by a short head photo with the saver in 3rd so another inch and we’d have won good money and he did nothing wrong at all and that wasn’t too bad a start. Highlife Dancer got beaten and ran badly and that just left Aussie Reigns to nick us a bit of place money
and the overall position was managable if a bit behind but there was the potential for losing a lot more so overall I’m fine with it.

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P R O F I L E S  @  P R E V I E W S

H e r e f o r d  2.00

3/1 Stevie Thunder, 8/1 Tresor De Bontee, 9/1 Nicky Nutjob
10/1 Phoenix Eye, 10/1 Share Option, 12/1 Goat Castle, 12/1 Missionaire 16/1 Al Amaan, 16/1 Aureate, 16/1 Bobby Dove, 16/1 Gizzit, 16/1 Naledi 16/1 Scotsbrook Legend, 20/1 Aughcarra, 20/1 Final Flyer 20/1 Hadron Collider, 20/1 Holden Caulfield, 20/1 Prince Freddie.

This is a 17f Handicap Hurdle. Obviously there are too many runners to be confident – but I did like STEVIE THUNDER the favourite. He is rated 90 on the Flat and that makes him thrown in over hurdles even if you allow for the fact he is knocking on a bit and has his quirks. It
is only a 0-97 contest and off topweight he looks very well placed to win. He was well backed on his returns to hurdles last time out at Ludlow and some were dissapointed he was only second. That does not worry me. He was probably in need of the run and experience as well. He ran into an improving 4 year old as well and that race was a
lot better than this. It was a higher class and contained 9 horses in the race that would not even be allowed to race in this low a grade. Some will say he’s bad value at 13/8 but not sure thats true. He has a very strong chance and looks an ideal each way double bet given there are 4 places available and I think STEVIE THUNDER will win.

Selection

#10 Win STEVIE THUNDER 11/8

L i n g f i e l d  3.20

9/4 Surprise Moment, 9/2 Albamara, 11/2 Rumh, 6/1 Polygon
10/1 Momentary, 10/1 Roxy Flyer, 12/1 Tempest Fugit
14/1 Good Morning Star, 16/1 Aniseed, 20/1 Western Pearl
25/1 Sunday Bess, 33/1 Jiwen, 50/1 Livia4s Dream, 50/1 Miss Starlight.

I know I said I should ignore Lingfield today and we should really but wanted to mention something about this Listed race for Fillies over 1m 5f. There is a short 6 year history but I see some patterns.

* Every Past winner had between 5-9 career starts
* Every one had form in Listed or Group Class before

I would really want to land on a horse with 5-9 runs. The favourite SURPRISE MOMENT has only had 3 runs two less than all other winners and She also has no form beyond a Class 3 grade before. She should improve may well win and I can’t be too dogmatic as  there are so few similar races to develop an idea of what wins but I don’t think SURPRISE MOMENT is safe here. She has just won a handicap where her highest rated opponent was rated 90. Today her rivals include horses rated 103 102 99 98 97 96 95 94 and it’s
these reasons I want to oppose her. Every past winner of this had 5-9 runs so enough experience to win without being overexposed so there is still improvement to come. I am going to avoid horses with a lot more. ROXY FLYER and RUMH have had far more runs than all six winners. So has badly drawn GOOD MORNING STAR. I feel WESTERN PEARL is too exposed especially for an absence. Having only 4 runs TEMPEST FUGIT is one run short and as none of the past winners dropped in trip I dont fancy her to have enough.

S h o r t l i s t

* MOMENTARY matches the above two stats
* I have reservations about her from a 9f race
* I also dont like the fact she has had headgear

* POLYGON also matches the two stats I like
* I do note she has a listed race penalty which is a worry
* No older horse managed that – and she did win last time
* None of the 6 winners were 1st 2nd or 3rd last time
* They were all 4th or worse last time out
* POLYGON is still a positive but not exactly safe for me
* ANISEED – She passes both my requirements
* ALBAMARA – I felt she had a good profile

Selection

ALBAMARA – Win Bet 7/1
ANISEED – Win Bet 16/1

H e r e f o r d   3.30

9/4 On The Bridge, 4/1 Gigondas, 13/2 Going Nowhere Fast
8/1 Cold Knight, 9/1 Koultas King, 10/1 Lucky Prince
12/1 Loughalder, 14/1 Get Home Now, 14/1 Midnight Dove

* This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f
* Not many can win this race
* ON THE BRIDGE is hard to read winning a handicap chase last time
* I cant find any horses trying to win these races like him
* Not keen myself he drops from Chases but I have to be open minded
* I am opposing him each way given his short price
* GIGONDAS doesnt interest me as a 3yo
* Horses aged 3 do win but so far havent at this trip
* All 24 lost but they have won over 3m and 2m trips
* I looked at 3 year olds at every distance
* Not many won that were beaten as far as he was last time out
* GIGONDAS isnt my first choice
* It was COLD KNIGHT that interested me the most

COLD KNIGHT

* Male horses aged 6
* Having between 7 and 8 National Hunt runs
* Absent more than 100 days
* Coming from a Handicap Hurdle over 18f or more
* No form beyond a Class 4 race
* Carrying 11st 3lbs or less
* Beaten last time out
* There were 5 horses with this profile
* These finished W W 5 W W
* COLD KNIGHT has this profile today

Selection

#5 Each Way COLD KNIGHT 5/1

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L i n g f i e l d  4.20

3/1 Rio Royale, 5/1 Jackie Love, 6/1 Darnathean, 7/1 North Central 15/2 Mary4s Pet, 8/1 Memphis Man, 10/1 Silvee, 12/1 Artful Lady 16/1 Bedibyes, 20/1 Delightful Sleep, 25/1 Lady On Top 25/1 Schoolboy Champ, 33/1 Give Us A Belle.

* This is a 7f Handicap for Apprentices
* I looked at all similar races in October and November
* I would demand a fit profile here especially as its for Apprentices
* RIO ROYALE doesnt have that and I am opposing him
* He won this last year but had a recent run and more runs this year
* RIO ROYALE is exposed and absent 49 days
* He has raced just once since May and just 5 times this season
* Last year he had 7 runs since May and a run 17 days before
* RIO ROYALE looks underraced to me and so are others
* SCHOOLBOY CHAMP hasnt had enough runs this year
* MARY4S PET is an exposed mare and absent over a month
* Shes raced just once in 83 days a big worry for an exposed mare
* She also has to come up in trip to a distance shes 0-8 at
* JACKIE LOVE is also an exposed mare
* Worries me she has 45 days off and comes up in distance
* Not a solid profile and shes never been out of Class 5 before
* JACKIE LOVE doesnt offer me enough
* LADY ON TOP is short of runs this season
* BEDIBYES smells underraced to me as a 4yo filly
* She has a months absence and one run in 83 days
* Her trainer has never had a flat winner before either
* DELIGHTFUL SLEEP is too inexperienced absent too long
* GIVE US A BELLE isnt running well enough
* ARTFUL LADY is hard to like as a 3yo fily from a 6f seller
* SILVEE – Not keen shes an exposed mare absent 50 days
* No exposed mares won absent that long
* Shes hardly rich in backclass either and drawn one
* MEMPHIS MAN is 9 and absent 49 days and that worries me
* I can find a 9yo win absent a month in one of these races
* That was First Maite (2002) who had a similar level of backclass
* MEMPHIS MAN is therefore respected and shortlisted
* However in the last 5 years he hasnt won after a break
* Since 2006 his wins came after 2 9 9 20 17 14 5 14 20 3 7 15 days
* MEMPHIS MAN has 29 more days off than his longest absent win

Possibles

* DARNATHEAN – Respected as a 3yo with a recent run
* I’d have liked a slightly better last run but he is respected

* NORTH CENTRAL – lots to like with a fit profile and recent run
* He was beaten a fair way just 6 days ago which is a concern
* There is an excuse as it looks like he didnt stay a mile
* Statistically there are exposed 5yo’s winning like him
* Those that had recent heavy defeats over a Mile
* Lordship – Lindas Colin – Elusive Warrior – Tanforan all did it since 2009
* Thats 4 examples that show his profile is fine
* NORTH CENTRAL was trapped from stall 1 last time at Wolves
* Not given a hard race at all once he was beaten
* NORTH CENTRAL is well handicapped and is the best risk here

Selection

#10 Win NORTH CENTRAL 7/1

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www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

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Check For Best Prices at http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/odds/horses
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Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on November 3, 2012