Wolverhampton Racing Tip

Wolverhampton  3.40
9/4 Royal Sea, 9/2 Safwaan, 5/1 Guava, 8/1 Arabian Flight10/1 Anychanceofabirdie, 10/1 The Which Doctor14/1 Georgebernardshaw, 20/1 Lytham, Meydan Style20/1 Nolecce, 20/1 Young Jackie, 25/1 Indian Emperor.
This is a Selling Handicap over 9f.

I am taking the view that ROYAL SEA is too short at around 13/8. I respect any horse with a very recent win and he may well bolt up but I have other issues about him which tell me he is too short. He won a bad race last time and I looked at all 3 year olds that ran in these races when winning last time. I found a 1-25 record and that winner was a filly. It’s not an impressive record and ROYAL SEA has only had 6 career starts. He may well win but I did not want to take the risk at the price. He was sold recently for only 800 Guineas which doesnt say too much and I am looking for something at bigger odds. I would not risk SAFWAAN having had just one run since March.INDIAN EMPEROR and THE WHICH DOCTOR have absences I can’t live with. ANYCHANCEOFABIRDIE has spent all his short career in maidens ,sellers and claimers and I can’t find a 3yo like him. I decided not to risk ARABIAN FLIGHT. She ran well last time but she is a filly and that was only a 3yo handicap and I dont like the fact she has raced once in just 87 days.GUAVA is an option as she was behind ROYAL SEA last time and gets a weight pull. Not entirely happy that she is drawn one but a recent winner has won from this stall and she has a very recent run and It helps a lot that she is a much bigger price than the favourite. I think she is a reasonable each way bet.

 
Selection
GUAVA 8/1 Each Way at  Coral

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on December 29, 2012

The Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle

Mathematician Christmas Newsletter

This is the last message before my Welsh National

preview and I have decided to have a look today at

the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot which looks wide open.

I don’t expect to get the winner here given its heavy

ground and I could have chosen a much easier race

but it is the main race today so I will try and sort it.

Before I do that a look back at my last newsletter.

 

……….S t o p P r e s s ………..

The Private Service had just one bet yesterday

OVERRIDER WON by 7 lengths

Advised at 11/8 backed into 4/5

 

You can upgrade to the full service with a special offer

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/christmas-offer-2012.asp

 

Last Saturday’s Free Message

Never Been Done in 21 Years (Part 1)

If you remember in the last message I gave you a

statistic that showed no 4 year old has even won

a handicap chase at Cheltenham before. Many will

have been dissapointed that UNIONISTE overcame

that statistic to win last Saturday but I wasn’t. The

result was not good for me. I went with WALKON

and to finish second to UNIONISTE was a slightly

bitter result but I have always said that statistics

are simply a truthful checkable reflection of what

has happened in the past and I open admitted in

the message that only 3 horses aged 4 had tried.

You should not be thinking negatively about using

statistics because of that race. What you should

be thinking is where on earth you would ever find

a service that can give you that statistic and also

put it in its full context. I did say the horse could

easily win and all I was doing was trying to place

the race in it’s full context. Thats what I try to do.

 

Never Been Done in 21 Years (Part 2)

 

By some extraordinary coincidence I managed

to find another horse that was trying to win his

race trying to do something no horse has done.

It also shows the strength in depth of the service

that another horse was unearthed on the same

day when also doing something not done before.

He ran in a 2yo seller over 9f at Wolverhampton.

* I looked at every 2yo seller run before over 9f +

* Going 9f or more for a 2yo is a marathon distance

* No 2yo has ever won one without at least 3 races

* Inexperienced horses score very badly in these races

* RAINFORD GLORY started odds on with just 2 runs

* He was trying something no horse had done before

It seems incredible now to think we found two horses

on the day that were trying something no horses did

in 21 years. I told members that RAINFORD GLORY

had to be opposed despite being odds on in the race.

 

Advised Bet

WOZA MOYA

WON 4/1

 

Full members were given this as a bet last Saturday.

That more than made up for choosing Walkon rather

than Unioniste earlier in the day. It shows the range

our messages have. From high class chases to low

grade juvenile sellers and to find two horses having

to do something not done before it proves just that.

The win on WOZA MOYA ensured we won that day.

 

A s c o t 3.10

The Ladbroke (Handicap Hurdle)

(Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m

5/1 Balder Succes, 7/1 Cash And Go, 8/1 Lyvius

8/1 Ranjaan, 9/1 It´s A Gimme, 12/1 Olofi, Cause Of Causes

14/1 Into Wain, 16/1 Double Ross, 16/1 Kazlian

16/1 Princeton Plains, 20/1 Petit Robin, 20/1 Rattan

20/1 Rigidity, 20/1 Thomas Edison, 25/1 Bothy, 25/1 Dan Breen

25/1 First In The Queue, 25/1 Urbain De Sivola

40/1 Bar De Ligne, 40/1 First Avenue.

* This is a 2m Handicap Hurdle

* There are 8 past renewals of this race

* The race was abandoned in 2009 and 2010

* I looked at all similar races in December

* These are 2m Handicaps in Class 2 + with 12 + runners

* There are 17 of these races run since 2002

* These are at Ascot Sandown Newbury and Doncaster

4 Y e a r O l d s

* Horses aged are 0-34 in the 8 past renewals

* I look at all 17 similar races

* The last 20 horses aged 4 have been beaten

* Since 2006 they have a 1-41 record

* In the 17 races since 2002 they have a 4-65 record

* These were Verasi, Mon Michel, Monte Cinto and Overstrand

* The 4 year old winners had this in common

* They had 7 8 5 6 previous hurdle runs

* They had 1 2 2 2 runs since the previous June

* They had absences of 28 14 15 9 days

* 3 of the 4 winners aged 4 had Grade 1 form

* They all had a recent run finishing W 3 W W

* They all came from All aged races including 3 handicaps

* They all had 10st 13lbs or less

* BALDER SUCCES is a 4yo

* We know horses aged 4 are 0-34 in this race

* There were 4 winners aged 4 in other races

* Its a big help he won last time and has 8 hurdle runs

* It was a 4yo only race though

* All the 4yo winners came from all aged races

* They all had more weight than he does

* RANJAAN is a seasonal debutant absent 338 days

* RANJAAN is wrong and therefore opposed

* Theres an argument his stable are so good he shouldnt be

* Its a big ask though with just 4 hurdle runs

* He’s really had 3 as he fell very early in one race

* The 4yo winners had 7 8 5 6 hurdle starts and recent runs

* I cant justify going with RANJAAN

* KAZLIAN is also opposed as a 4yo

* I dont think he ran well enough last time out

* He doesnt have Grade 1 form either like most 4yo winners

* I just dont feel he can be backed after his last run

* LYVIUS is a 4yo and they are 0-34 in this race

* There were 4 that won other races

* Most of these had 2 runs that year and he has 1

* I looked at 4 year olds with 1 run this season

* I found 1 winner but he had 7 runs and Lyvius has 5

* LYVIUS won last time out which helps but there are doubts

* Very few 4yo winners came from high class races

* None that did it won or placed in them as Lyvius did

P r e v i o u s H u r d l e S t a r t s

* Past winners of this had the following hurdle starts

* 7 5 5 6 5 9 4

* Look at the 17 similar races run in December

* They had the following Hurdle runs

* 8 7 4 5 4 5 9 8 6 27 7 5 5 6 9 11 4

* 15 of the 17 winners had between 4 and 9 hurdle runs

* The only others had 11 and 27

* You want between 4 and 11 hurdle runs if possible

* PRINCETON PLAINS has 11 runs and an absence

* He also looks very harshly handicapped

* FIRST IN THE QUEUE is also badly handicapped

* With 17 Hurdle runs I cant see where improvement comes

* FIRST AVENUE has the same problem with 18 runs

R e c e n t R a c e s

* There are 17 similar races run in December

* They were won by horses with the following days absence

* 15 21 21 49 21 8 6 14 224 6 28 2 15 9 8 28 22

* Only 1 winner was absent more than 7 weeks

* Horses with long absences have plenty to prove

* The following horses fail this

* PRINCETON PLAINS – RANJAAN

Age

* This the age of the 17 winners of similar races

* 9 5 5 6 5 5 6 4 5 7 4 5 4 4 5 6 7

* PETIT ROBIN is 9 and there was one winner aged 9

* The vast majority of winners were at least 2 years younger

* PETIT ROBIN won last time of a mark of 147

* Today a rating of 155 may be beyond him

* The race he won at Sandown isnt a good trial race

Recent Form

* Its very rare to win these races without a good last run

* Look at the 17 Clas 2 handicaps with 12 + runners

* This is the last time out finishing position of the 17 winners

* W 3 W W W W W 9 W W W W W W 3 W

* 14 of these won last time out which is remarakable

* Only failed to win on their last start

* Two were placed in Listed and Graded Handicaps

* The other placed in a Graded Chase

* I would ignore all those horses with poor last runs

* URBAIN DE SIVOLA didnt do enough last time

* BOTHY ran poorly last time and isnt safe

* DAN BREEN isnt running well enough to take this

* BAR DE LIGNE also looks wrong

* RIGIDITY was 2nd in this last year as a 4yo

* He never progressed after that run

* He has been chasing twice this season

* Its not a safe preparation and no winners were like him

* INTO WAIN is 5 and has 1 run this season

* There were 3 horses aged 5 winning with 1 run that year

* These had 4-9-10 previous hurdle runs

* INTO WAIN has 7 and thats fine

* I dont like that he came from Sandown last time

* Thats not been a good trial race

* All 16 that came from there lost and just one came 1-2-3

* Not a strong stat but it does worry me about him

* I also dont like that he’s 7lbs higher for losing

* IT´S A GIMME is 5 and has 1 run this season

* With 6 Hurdle runs I’d give him a fair chance

* He has the 2nd joint longest absence

* Comes from the same race as the 2008 winner 49 days ago

* That horse was older though

* IT´S A GIMME has enough to be shortlisted

* I’d rather he’d won last time though in a more recent race

* Look at horses from handicaps over a month ago

* There were 2 winners and both were 6 year olds

* Those aged 5 like IT´S A GIMME were 0-18

* THOMAS EDISON fails the same statistic

* He is 5 and has 1 run this season

* He also has an absence of over a month

* I cant match him to a winner because of that

* All 18 horses aged 5 doing that failed

* He’s no English form before

* He’s only won a Maiden hurdle before as well

* CAUSE OF CAUSES is a 4yo which is an issue

* We know these are 0-34 in this race

* I’d ignore that as he is very well raced this year

* Lots of big priced 4yo’s have placed in this

* My suspicion is he has been too busy this year

* He’s been running in Ireland all summer

* It wouldnt shock me if he won but I’m not convinced

* I fancy him a bit but I just fancy others more

* OLOFI now has 16 hurdle starts

* Thats a bit more than is ideal

* OLOFI is 6 and has 1 run this season

* He comes from a Handicap Hurdle

* There were 2 winners with this profile

* These had 5 and 9 career starts

* OLOFI with 16 is a bit too exposed form comfort

* He has also ran once right handed and flopped

* Its a big ask on a career high mark

* OLIFI might have squeezed on the shortlist

* I had him as my 4th choice

S h o r t l i s t

* CASH AND GO is 5 and has 1 run this season

* Overall a positive profile

* There were 3 winners with this profile from 17 winners

* They won with absences of 21 22 8 days

* CASH AND GO absent 34 days is off just a bit longer

* RATTAN has 15 hurdle runs

* Thats a big more than ideal

* I’m ignoring that for two reasons

* Its heavy ground and he is well raced this year

* On a career high mark he does have a lot to prove

* With so many 4yo’s we may need his fitness and experience

* DOUBLE ROSS has 11 hurdle runs

* Thats acceptable and I would respect him

* He isnt well treated but he will has more stamina than most

* If he makes all he could take some stopping

* This will ride like 2m 4f and he is very dangerous

 

Selection

DOUBLE ROSS 16/1 Win Bet stan james

RATTAN 16/1 Win Bet stan james Ladbrokes bet365

 

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on December 22, 2012

Southwell Horse Racing Tip

This is one of the four options I have selected for my full members today.

 

Southwell 4.50 – STANDPOINT 7/2 Win Bet

I think he is the fittest horse in the race and should take
this race but he does have to get the trip here and I was
a bit annoyed that he was trimmed from 9/2 to 7/2 as he
looked an each way bet to me. I will now go win only as
the price has shortened but I liked his chance in this.

This is a 12f handicap for 0-75 rated horses. In the last
10 days STANDPOINT has twice finished 3rd in decent
handicaps and with a 3 day break looks in form and the
fittest horse in the race. I thought there were several of
weak profiles against him. DAZZLING VALENTINE and
ELIZABETH COFFEE are fillies with hard absences to
overcome. CARTER is a bit short of runs this season.
WEST END LAD is wrong as a 9yo from an 8f race. I
dont want JACK DAWKINS with his absence. Horses
well beaten over 14 last time like ENGLISH SUMMER
struggled and only 4 year olds overcame that in similar
races. SIR BOSS and BOA are older types with poor
last runs behind them. I have to shortlist 4 horses.

* TOUGHNESS DANON – Possible on his last run
* DE RIGUEUR is a neutral profile and hard to read.
* BADEA – Has enough to shortlist
* STANDPOINT must have a strong chance

Selection

STANDPOINT 7/2 LadbrokesBoyleSports

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on December 15, 2012

No Horse Has Done This in 21 Years

Mathematician Christmas Newsletters

As I mentioned in the previous newsletter

I promised you I would be sending you a sample of a Negative Profile

I have that for you here today for am upcoming Saturday race
where we have a horse trying to do something no horse has done in the last 21 years.

Also for the Welsh National I have some early research into sire stats.

These sire stats are of course just one componant of a total race assessment.

I will give you more later as research is done.

*****************************************

Don’t Forget – Christmas Sale Now On

Get my analysis of multiple live races each day

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/christmas-offer-2012.asp

*****************************************

 

S a t u r d a y s R a c i n g

C h e l t e n h a m 2.30

Paul Stewart IronSpine Charity Challenge Gold Cup

(Handicap Chase) Grade 3 Cl1 2m5f

UNIONISTE v WALKON

This race is run on Saturday. I will be doing full analysis

in my daily message on the day but I wanted to show a

very interesting difference between these two horses as

they are Joint Favourites and both are fancied to win it.

UNIONISTE

On Saturday Paul Nicholls will probably be upbeat and

positive about this 4 year old. There will be many people

backing him and if UNIONISTE manages to win then the

majority will collect their winnings without any idea that

he is trying to do something no horse like him has done

before. Thats not to say he wont win. He could easily do

it but unless you understand the Context of the bet you

are placing and appreciate what you are backing him to

do then you may as well not worry about the intelligent

side of gambling and go and buy a scratch card instead.

* Consider the following

* Since 1991 Cheltenham have had 477 Handicap Chases

* Thats 477 Handicap Chase at any distance in any class

* No 4 year old has ever won one of these 477 races

* No 4 year old has ever placed in one of these 477 races

* UNIONISTE is trying to become the first to do that

* Admittedly only 3 horses aged 4 have tried

* These 3 horses all failed to finish

* Original Fly- Always behind – tailed off and pulled up

* Whimper – Towards rear of midfield struggling when Fell

* Frosted Grape – Weakening and No Chance when Fell

Now if UNIONISTE wins he will have done something no

horse has done in the last 21 years. If he does win many

that back him will congratulate themselves saying how a

4 year olds was throw in and how skillfull it was to choose

him. Very few will understand how 4 year olds have done

and they will collect their winnings ignorant of the facts.

WALKON

This horse is the Joint Favourite with Unioniste and has

the more interesting profile of the two.

* Horses with 6-7-8-9 Chase stars dominate this race

* They have won 8 of the last 9 renewals of this race

* WALKON matches that with 6 Chase starts

* Horses with recent races dominate this race

* WALKON comes from the Paddy Power Gold Cup

* The 1997 2006 2009 2010 2011 winners did the same

* They all finished 1-2-3-4-5 in the Paddy Power like him

I thought the WALKON v UNIONISTE comparison was

fascinating and on the above data surely WALKON is

the better bet at the prices and I would also consider

him in the match bet if anything around even money.

 

 

W E L S H N A T I O N A L

SIRES PERFORMANCE RATINGS

BASED ON A COMBINATION OF 3 FACTORS

STAMINA – CLASS – GROUND


Using Sire Statistics is interesting and helpful and there

is merit in this approach but it is a bit Amateurish if not

done properly. You can fully trust Sire statistics. Partly

as many racecourses have misleading distances. This

sounds stupid but some races are run over an entirely

different distance to those advetised. Then you have a

lot of Clerk of the Courses calling the ground wrong as

I’m sure you will know. After that you have many races

that are falsly run which undermines the stats anyway.

That said it is still usefull to understand how likely any

horse is to perform under certain conditions. It can help

and although this method is only a smaller piece of the

overall jigsaw it is a nevertheless a piece we should do.

 

* What we do know is this

* The Welsh National winner has to stay 3m 5f

* He has to do that in a High Class race

* He will have to do that on Soft or Heavy ground too

 

I dont want to just look at a Sires record. After all I may

find that a Sire has bred a 3m 5f winner but if thats won

in a selling race on fast ground it’s meaningless when I

try and work out if a horse can win a Welsh National.

* I have looked at all the Sires in the Welsh National

* I have looked for their winners over 3m 3f or more

* I have then looked at how many did it in Class races

* Finally how many of those did that on bad ground

 

 

WELSH NATIONAL

SIRE PERFORMANCE RESULTS


* The following results are in order of my findings

* The Top of the table have the best records

* These are most likely to win Class long distance races

* And most likely to do that on bad ground

 

Winners at 3m 3f + in Class 2 + on Softer Ground

JOIN TOGETHER 5-53 record

TEAFORTHREE 3-30 record

GILES CROSS 2-34 record

BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE 1-15 record

LE BEAU BAI 1-17 record

MICHEL LE BON 1-20 record

VIKING BLOND 0-3 record

ALFIE SPINNER 0-3 record

SONA SASTA 0-5 record

QUARTZ DE THAIX 0-6 record

BRADLEY 0-8 record

UNIVERSAL SOLDIER 0-9 record

ROALCO DE FARGES 0-14 record

ALFIE SHERRIN- 0-16 record

 

 

Detailed Results of the Findings

JOIN TOGETHER

* His sire has 610 winners

* 43 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 8 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 5-53 record

* Includes a Midlands National winner and Grand National 2nd

 

TEAFORTHREE

* His sire has 608 winners

* 20 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 4 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 3-30 record

 

GILES CROSS

* His sire has 471 winners

* 20 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 5 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 2-34 record

 

BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE

* His sire has 611 winners

* 8 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 3 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 1-15 record

* The sires had a Midlands N ational winner on Heavy 4m 1f

 

LE BEAU BAI

* His sire has 150 winners

* 7 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 1-17 record

* That winner was Le Beau Bai winning last years race

 

MICHEL LE BON

* His sire has 71 winners

* 2 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 1-20 record

* That winner came in a Cross Country race though

 

VIKING BLOND

* His sire has 11 winners

* None of these came at 3m 3f or more

* None of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-3 record

* Best return was this horse placing over 3m 3f on heavy

 

ALFIE SPINNER

* His sire has 481 winners

* 9 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-3 record

* The best match was a second in a Hennessy Gold Cup

 

SONA SASTA

* His sire has 29 winners

* 2 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-1 record

* Sires got a 0-5 record at 3m 3f + in Class 2 + none placed

 

QUARTZ DE THAIX

* His sire has 37 winners

* 1 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-6 record

* None of the 6 losers even placed

 

BRADLEY

* His sire has 361 winners

* 14 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-8 record

* Best match is a 3rd place over 3m 4f on heavy

 

UNIVERSAL SOLDIER

* His sire has 141 winners

* 5 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 0 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-9 record

* The sires had a 2nd in the Eider Chase on Heavy 4m 1f

 

ROALCO DE FARGES

* His sire has 91 winners

* 4 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-14 record

* There was a Grand National winner on good ground

* Several in the 0-14 record placed in these races

 

ALFIE SHERRIN

* His sire has 347 winners

* 9 of these came at 3m 3f or more

* 1 of these came in Class 2 grade or higher

* 3m 3f + in Class 2 or better on softer ground a 0-16 record

* Only 1 of 16 placed and that was Alfie Sherrin in Irish National

*****************************************

Don’t Forget – Christmas Sale Now On

Get my analysis of multiple live races each day

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/christmas-offer-2012.asp

*****************************************

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

Posted under horse racing tips

Mathematician Betting Christmas Newsletters

Mathematician Betting Christmas Newsletters

Welcome to members of the Mathematician Newsletter.
Christmas is approaching and to mark that  I have decided
to run a series of free newsletters for you in the run up to Christmas
or more specifically the Welsh National on Dec 27th.

Over the series of newsletters I hope I can give you some fresh
ideas that might add to your enjoyment of betting

There is also a more tangible offering of a Christmas discount on membership
for those of you seeking to upgrade yourself from free to full member status.

Today’s Newsletter

* Welsh Grand National
* Statistics in Betting
* Profiles – Precedents – Perspective
* A Negative about to run
* A Cheap Price Christmas Deal on Full Membership

I will try and persuade you to join Mathematician betting
but I also want to try and teach you a little about my approach to racing.
My hope is that some of it rubs off on you and benefits you longer term.
But in addition I plan to give you a few winners. I also plan to
talk about the work and analysis we do and why we do it
and when I can apply it to the racing I will. Hopefully I will
give you a couple of winners but my major aim in these
newsletters is to sort one of my favourite races out soon.

 
2012 Welsh  Grand  National

This is a big target race for the service and I will be doing
a lot of work on this race and I will try my best to find the
winner and my plan is to finish the Christmas newsletters with this.

 
Statistics In Betting

Many people talk about whether statistics work in finding
winners. There are lots of statistical punters out there but
many don’t see the value in that approach. That debate is
a red herring. It’s a waste of time. It’s the wrong question.

A Dictionary definition of Statistics

” The mathematics of the collection, organization and
interpretation of numerical data”

The key word there is interpretation. No two people look
at statistics in the same way. It’s too broad a description
and it’s meaningless. Many who dislike using statistics
are using them without even knowing. Many that do like
statistics are not using them properly anyway so as far
as I am concerned it’s a completely meaningless debate.

I myself however would fall firmly in the camp of believing that
it is better to be aware of the lessons history has to teach us
than to be operating completely blind to them.

 

Profiles – Precedents – Perspective

Each Day in my daily message I like to run profiles and
I will give you examples shortly. These profiles could be
individual horses or individual races. I like my bets to be
on horses that have profiles like other winners. If a horse
has won with a certain profile in similar races then I have
found a Precedent. If you find Precedents of horses that
win then you have got a far better perspective in the race.
I will give you an example in last Saturdays Hennessy.

Example One

Hennessy Gold Cup – BOBS WORTH Won 5/1

* Look at 7 year olds having their seasonal debut
* Take those 7 year olds that had Grade 1 form before
* Horses with that profile won 4 past Hennessy’s
* They won in 2001 2005 2007 2010
* Two of the 4 came from the RSA Chase as he does
* The 4 winners had 18 11 11 12 National Hunt starts
* BOBS WORTH was a close match with 10 starts
* These 4 winners had 6-4-5-3 previous Chase runs
* We know 10 of the last 14 winners had 3-7 Chase starts
* BOBS WORTH is ideal with 4 Chase starts
* BOBS WORTH had a smart profile

Thats a simple example of a Good Profile. I told members
to back BOB’S WORTH in the Hennessy because I knew
there were several winners of the race with similar profiles.
I had Precedents and because of that a better perspective.

Example Two

A LITTLE SWIFTER Won 7/2

This was my only bet on Sunday and this was based on
a profile I discovered in a Mares Beginners Chase. These
races are very rare and not many will even think to look
at what sort of horses win these races. I put the time in
and I found a remarkable record from horses just like her.

* Horses that dropped from 2m 4f or more
* Having a run within 50 days
* Aged 5-6-7-8
* Completed their last race without falling
* Having between 8 and 15 National Hunt Starts
* There were 12 horses with this profile and 8 won
* They finished W W 3 W 2 W W F W W 3 W
* A LITTLE SWIFTER has this profile
* The 2004 2007 2008 2009 winners of this race had it
* Not bad when you consider the 2010 2011 were not run
* A LITTLE SWIFTER had to be my bet

The Profile gave me a Precedent and therefore Perspective
and a good priced winner as the only bet of the day. Don’t
get me wrong they don’t all win and I make mistakes and
misjudge things like everybody else but I don’t tip at short
prices and you can afford to do that with good results.

Example Three

ROLAND WON 11/2 ( Advised when 12/1)

This profile was found only yesterday and this is another
great example of the type of analysis this service offers.
The race was a 2yo selling race over a Mile. There aren’t
many people that would see this sort of race as one for
special study but in fact they are. The following analysis
was sent in the members email on Thursday at Lingfield.

* This is a 2yo seller over a Mile
* By far the best record are horses from 8f Nurseries
* Horses coming from 8f Handicaps
* Between 4 and 12 career starts
* No form beyond a Class 4 race
* No previous wins before
* There were 8 horses with this profile
* They finished W 7 W 5 W 3 W W
* ROLAND shares that 5-8 record

Members have had these three profiles given to them
only in the last six days and all were advised as bets.
Analysis like it has kept us amongst the best racing
services in the game for many years. We are about
to enter our Thirteenth year and the proof of success
is that we rarely ever advertise for members. People
who join see the quality of this service and most of
our membership have joined through word of mouth.

 
N e x t   N e w s l e t t e r

A Negative Profile About to Run

I will do one in the next few days and will give you
an example of a Negative profile that has yet to run.
This horse should start favourite but I will show you
that win lose or draw this horse will be attempting
to do something that has “never been done before”.

 
Christmas Deal

As mentioned earlier I would like to offer you
the chance to buy yourself the Christmas present
of a test period of full membership of my service.

There are two key elements to this deal.

#1 – A significantly discounted first months fee.

#2 – An enhanced above normal no quibble refund Guarantee period.

In effect you can decide after Christmas if you believe the
service was worth paying for or not.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/christmas-offer-2012.asp

I will speak to you again soon
Best Wishes

Guy Ward
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
—————————-

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips