Betting At Lingfield Today

Lingfield 1.55

TEMPLE ROAD 4/1

Statistically this is a horrible little race and one
that will be affected by the draw as the 3 market
leaders have the worst draws 10-11-12 so much
will be down to tactics and a bit of luck. I think
that TEMPLE ROAD is the one because having
watched his recent runs its clear he still has a
ton in hand and I don’t believe he is finished yet.

Racing Post Odds

4/1 Temple Road, 5/1 Black Cadillac, 13/2 Welease Bwian
7/1 Speak The Truth, 8/1 Rich Again, 9/1 Jack My Boy
9/1 Waabel, 10/1 Belle Bayardo, 10/1 Frognal
14/1 My Own Way Home, 16/1 Desert Strike, 25/1 Putin.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-74 rated horses
* I have been banging on about the 6f draw here
* There have been 65 handicaps here since 2012
* Horses drawn 11 or more are 1-72 in these 64 races
* That was 0-71 but yesterday a Stall 11 won
* It was a falsely run race and that wouldnt put me off
* I would still much rather avoid the higher stalls
* BLACK CADILLAC has the worst draw in Stall 12
* He won last week and has a sound chance otherwise
* I just cant be with a horse from that stall at the moment
* RICH AGAIN is Drawn 11 also failing that statistic
* The rest of the race is a statistical mess
* No runners have absences almost all run within 2 weeks
* No runners come up in distance either
* There is a shortage of fillies in the race
* Luck will be an important factor here

TEMPLE ROAD won last time and has recent form
figures of W W 3 W. The defeat two runs ago was a
strange one. He looked to win easily and went 1.01
in running but somehow ended up on the far rail and
got caught. He did win last time and watching it on
video he had a ton in hand and wasnt even extended.
This horse still looks very well treated. With a good
passage he could outclass these. The problem is
that whilst the draw stats say avoid horses drawn 11
or more TEMPLE ROAD is drawn 10 and thats a bit
higher than I’d like. Visual impressions of him tells
me to ignore that. This looks a horse that should win.

Selection

TEMPLE ROAD 4/1 William Hill    bet365   Tote

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

Haydock Horse Racing Tip

A good day yesterday with 15 races profiled for full members
and highlighted horses finishing  L W W W L L L P L W L W W W W

8 winners from 15 races examined ain’t too bad.

Today full members have multiple races profiled for them
I did find one Full bet ( my strongest grade ) for them in the 4pm race.

Here on the free blog I have a top of message bet for you ( my second strongest grade )

Full membership is instantaneous so you can get in for todays action right away
if you want it.

here is the link ==> Betting Advice

 

Todays Free Horse Racing Tip

Haydock  4.05

100/30 Ohio Gold, 9/2 Cloudy Too, 11/2 Achimota
11/2 Yurok, 6/1 Furrows, 7/1 Tenor Nivernais
7/1 The Chazer, 14/1 Makethe Mostofnow.

* This is a Novice Handicap Chase over 2m 4f
* OHIO GOLD is the shortest priced horse
* Bothers me he has less runs this year than anything
* I dont feel two runs is enough for a horse with 15 runs
* Not for a horse thats coming up in distance
* Not for a horse from a Novice Chase
* The 7 past winners had 3 4 4 5 3 5 9 chase runs
* The 7 past winners had 6 4 4 5 3 3 3 runs this season
* OHIO GOLD only has 2 Chase runs less than all winners
* Every past winner came from a 2m 4f race or further.
* OHIO GOLD doesnt do that either
* I looked at horses from Novice Chases
* Those that stepped up in trip strzggled
* They only won when very lightly raced
* Those with 13 + runs had a 1-78 record
* OHIO GOLD – I think he comes out badly
* TENOR NIVERNAIS comes from a Novice Chase
* He is a bit too exposed to be doing that
* THE CHAZER also comes from a Novice Chase
* He looks too exposed to go in again
* Especially against lighter raced improvers
* MAKETHE MOSTOFNOW isnt running well enough

Shortlist

* CLOUDY TOO – His last win gets him shortlisted
* I’d have prefered him a bit lighter raced though

* ACHIMOTA comes from a 2m Novice Chase
* We know all past winners came from 2m 4f or more
* He isnt like any winner of this race
* There are winners elsewhere just like him though
* FURROWS has the same problem
* With 2 Chase starts I’d have liked 1 more

* YUROK comes from a 3m Novice Chase
* Thats a good profile 2 past winners did that
* The 2006-2007 winners of this did just that
* Both had just 3 Chase starts like YUROK
* His trainer won this in 2011
* That winner had 3 chase runs

Selection

YUROK 6/1 Win Bet
ACHIMOTA 5/1 Saver
Bet them both on Betfair  I suggest
( saver: small bet staked to win back the stake on the main bet if the saver wins )

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on February 16, 2013

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Newbury Racing Tip

Newbury  4.10

5/6 Unioniste, 7/2 Hadrian4s Approach
4/1 Our Father, 6/1 Same Difference
150/1 Henry Hurst.

* This is a 3m Novice Chase
* I see this as an interesting little race
* UNIONISTE upset me last time back in December
* He was a 4yo running in a Cheltenham handicap chase
* I oppose him that day for this reason
* No 4yo had ever won a Cheltenham Handicap Chase before
* I was upset when UNIONISTE broke that statistic
* He made a Mug of me so I dont underestimate him
* He will also improve at this distance today
* However he is now 5 and this is Febuary
* I looked at every 3m Novice Chase in Febuary
* Horses aged 5 had a weak 1-26 record
* The only winner was a horse called Japhet
* He started 2/9 favourite long odds on
* He only won a 3 runner race and he had Grade 1 form
* All the other 5 year olds trying this were beaten
* UNIONISTE – He cant appeal at odds on
* HENRY HURST is outclassed
* SAME DIFFERENCE has quite a lot to prove
* OUR FATHER – I suppose he has to be respected
* Funny horse who probably needs to be fresh
* I think he flopped last time as the race came too soon
* Hard to read we cant know if he will hold his form
* There seems a safer option to me

* This horse has a good profile
* Horses aged 6
* Coming from a Grade1-2 Chase
* There were 8 horses with this profile
* They finished W W W W W 3 F W
* Thats a 6-8 record
* The last to try won in 2010 (Burton Port)
* HADRIAN4S APPROACH is the selection

Selection

HADRIAN’S APPROACH 3/1
Quite a lot of 3/1 or more about earlier when full members got this
but now only sportingbet at those odds. You are looking at 11/4 perhaps as sportingbet who are not exactly renowed as a high stakes layer will cave in quickly no doubt.

Best Live Odds  available here

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2013-02-09/newbury/16-10/betting/

Posted under horse racing tips

Lingfield Racing Tip

No joy on the free blog last weekend.

I did advise about a strong  full member bet available last Saturday afternoon. New members who took the plunge and followed my advice to join up got a very nice winner advised at 7/1

The message today is sort of similar in nature.

The strogest bet we have today runs in the 2.40

Paying clients moan if we post our strongest stuff up here.

Join up if you want it.

For more info on the private service follow this link ==> Betting Advice

The below again is second tier stuff.

But bet with my own cash but to lesser stake than the stronger full member bet.

 

 

 

 

Lingfield  4.35

3/1 Amis Reunis, 4/1 Rose Garnet, 5/1 Spinning Ridge
5/1 Welsh Inlet, 6/1 Cuthbert, 8/1 Marshall Art
12/1 Jackie Love, 20/1 King4s Future
25/1 Rainbow Riches.

* This is a 7f Apprentice Handicap
* ROSE GARNET – Not for me as a filly from 5f
* Especially with no backclass and no recent run
* KING4S FUTURE is out beaten in a maiden
* RAINBOW RICHES – Filly with a weak profile
* JACKIE LOVE – lacks the backclass for exposed mare
* MARSHALL ART – Lightly raced 4 year old
* I find that unsafe in an Apprentice race

Shortlist

* SPINNING RIDGE – Respected with a recent run
* Problem for me is all horses his age had more backclass
* CUTHBERT – 1 similar winner but inexperienced jockey
* AMIS REUNIS is a 4yo filly that won last time
* I can find one that won again but with a ligher weight
* WELSH INLET – Her recent run gains her extra credit
* The two horses beating her had much more class
* This looks an easier race to me

Selection

WELSH INLET 9/2  Each Way  stan james are last bookie standing at those odds

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on February 2, 2013