Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

The final day of Cheltenham and the main highlight
is the Gold Cup. The rain is going to make things far
harder today but we have given the last 3 Gold Cup
winners and I will try to improve that proud record.

Heavy rain is due around Lunchtime that is likely
to turn the ground soft and maybe Heavy so that’s
the one thing to remember and account for.

 

Cheltenham 3.20

Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

Racing Post Odds

11/4 Bobs Worth, 7/2 Sir Des Champs
9/2 Silviniaco Conti, 11/2 Long Run, 14/1 Cape Tribulation
14/1 Captain Chris, 14/1 The Giant Bolster
66/1 Monbeg Dude, 100/1 Wayward Prince.

The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y

This is the real highlight of the meeting and a race
where I trust my angles. We have a brilliant record
in this race. All past messages for years are posted
on the message board. I looked at recent Gold Cup
messages and it struck me how well we had done.

Service Bets in the Cheltenham Gold Cup

2012 – Synchronised WON 10/1
2011 – Long Run WON 5/1
2010 – Imperial Commander WON 12/1
2009 – Albertas Run Lost 14/1
2008 – Denman WON 9/4
2007 – No Bet
2006 – Hedgehunter 2nd 20/1 – Follow The Past 3rd 9/1

We have tipped the last 3 winners of this race and at
10/1 5/1 and 12/1 although I did have a saver in 2011
and a Split Stake in 2010. This only shows that I have
developed a good understanding about just what it
takes to win a race like this. Lets hope this continues.

* We need to get rid of the horses with little chance
* A rating of around 166 is needed to win this race
* MONBEG DUDE is rated far too low
* WAYWARD PRINCE is also too low

 

Racing Post Ratings on Bad Ground

This is a complete experiment. I have never
done it before. I have looked at recent form in
the last couple of years with the aim of trying
to provide a table of “best performances” that
were given in the conditions we have today.

* These scores are Racing Post Ratings only
* I demanded the Following Conditions
* The Ground must be described as one of these
* Either Soft or Heavy or the Going Stick under 7.0
* This is only in Chases and not hurdles
* It must be in the past two seasons

Top Rated Scores

1) LONG RUN 180
2) SILVIANO CONTI 175
3) BOBS WORTH 174
3) LONG RUN 174
5) SILVINIACO CONTI 173
5) LONG RUN 173
7) LONG RUN 171
8) CAPTAIN CHRIS 170
8) CAPTAIN CHRIS 170
10) SIRE DES CHAMPS 169
11) SIRE DES CHAMPS 168
11) THE GIANT BOLSTER 168
11) SILVINIACO CONTI 168
14) CAPE TRIBULATION 166
15) THE GIANT BOLSTER 166

* This is unscientific for the following reasons
* Describing the Ground is problematic
* I have no Going Stick readings for Ireland
* Some horses have had more opportunities
* Lighter raced horses don’t get as many chances

I am looking solely at Chases in the past two years
that were run on soft or heavy ground or at a track
when the Going Stick was under 7.0. The scores in
this table are Racing post Ratings with this criteria.

* LONG RUN has the 1st 3rd 5th 7th best ratings
* I would see him in a favourable light because of it

* Back to a more Traditional style of analysis
* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.
* I wouldn’t want a horse with fewer runs that season
* BOBS WORTH is the only horse with just 1 run
* He is also the shortest priced horse as well
* BOBS WORTH has a lot to prove with just 1 run
* I cant help feeling missing his prep runs an issue

* BOBS WORTH has 5 Chase runs and just 1 run this season
* The last 16 winners ran in the following number of chases
* 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
* The horse with 5 Chase starts was Long Run in 2011
* However Long Run had 4 extra French Chase runs
* BOBS WORTH would be the least experienced winner

* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.
* BOBS WORTH only has 1 run – a serious worry
* He isn’t a big horse and that wont help
* Not when he is under pressure and lacking a run

* 16 of the last 17 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts
* The rest of the field have between 8 and 16 runs
* I would see that as acceptable

* CAPE TRIBULATION doesn’t interest me
* Exposed horses like him rarely win this race
* His win last time didn’t impress me and I tipped him
* He beat 12 year old absent 680 days into second
* The 3rd horse didn’t stay and 4th was out of form
* He is smaller than ideal and likes smaller fields
* It will be slightly disappointing if he wins

* CAPTAIN CHRIS has to prove he will stay
* There is a big doubt about that
* I looked at his Sires record in Listed and Graded Class
* None of his offspring won over this far in that class
* He is also better going right handed

* THE GIANT BOLSTER was 2nd last year
* Granted similar conditions the race should suit him
* He is Exposed now though with 23 National Hunt starts
* This race rarely goes to a horse with so many runs
* The last 16 winners ran in the following number of chases
* 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
* THE GIANT BOLSTER now has 14 Chase runs
* Only 1 of the last 16 winners had 14 or more chase runs
* He has 8 runs in Grade 1-2 before and has yet to win
* You would expect something to beat him

* SILVINIACO CONTI passes all the main angles
* There is no doubt he has the class to win
* It will come down to if he stays and handles the track
* He isn’t a big horse and I don’t like that
* The small field should help him
* I’d have liked stronger evidence he likes Cheltenham
* SILVINIACO CONTI has shown he stays 3m 1f twice
* That was at Wetherby and Aintree
* I looked at the course record times for those races
* I also looked at the Racing Post Standard times
* It takes around 24-30 seconds longer to run this trip
* The testing uphill finish could be too much for him

Shortlist

LONG RUN
SIR DES CHAMPS

I have two on my shortlist. The only thing that does
worry me is that BOBS WORTH whilst statistically a
lot weaker than this pair may turn out to be special.
There is a fair chance that he is and I wont be that
surprised if he can win despite a vulnerable profile.

* LONG RUN has 24 runs and 16 came in Chases
* That’s on the high side and it is a worry
* That does however include his younger French form
* However if we ignore his runs in France as a 3yo-4yo
* He then doesn’t look as exposed as before
* In England he has 12 runs all of these Chases

* He does meet some improving younger horses
* He should run his race and he should go close
* He dominates my Racing Post Ratings table above
* An important factor will be his Cheek pieces
* His stable are on record as saying they benefit him
* The 1999 winner had headgear so it has been done
* LONG RUN could be the professional bet here

* SIR DES CHAMPS comes out very well
* 8 Chase starts is not far off perfect
* He is 2-2 at Cheltenham Festivals
* There are factors against him
* SIR DES CHAMPS is only 8th best on Official Ratings
* That seems ridiculous but there are higher rated horses

* SIR DES CHAMPS is the stand out profile here
* He is the statistical choice on my angles
* He does need to prove he stays this trip
* He needs to do that on the ground as well

* I looked at the record of his Sire
* I looked at his offspring running under these conditions
* Running over 3m+ in soft ground in Listed-Graded class
* There was a 4-10 record which is very encouraging
* That said all 4 winners were 3m 1f or shorter
* None as yet have done it over this far

 

Selection

LONG RUN 5/1 Each Way

I think this has to be the bet each way. Had it been
faster ground I would have bet Sir Des Champs as
the best profile horse. I could and nearly did have
a saver on him but surely LONG RUN is the better
bet each way. This allows you some safety even if
BOBS WORTH or SIR DES CHAMPS turn out to be
special as well they might. LONG RUN has placed
and Won in the Gold Cup. Obviously he is not the
same horse as he was when winning this in 2011
but does he need to be ? Look at his figures and
there is only roughly half a stones regression and
his Racing Post Ratings on bad ground hold up as
well as any. There are several doubtful stayers in
this field and a few that wouldn’t want this ground.

5/1 at 1/4 odds is available at Bet365
( and would be applicable for their 4/1 free bet bonus )

Same odds at betfred – william hill – stan james – bet victor
All mentioned above off BOG prices to protect you if it happens to drift out later.

Good luck today whether following me or doing your own thing.

Best Wishes
Guy Ward
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

PS Join for a full month of pro service while the Cheltenham Deal remains live.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

It will dissappear after the weekend. Take The Price.

Posted under Major Horse Races

 

NATIONAL HUNT CHASE

Cheltenham 2.40 pm Wednesday

 

One of the things I hate is listening to self appointed

experts who repeat bland clichés about things like a

horse’s stamina. I hear them churn out that “a horse

will stay all day” and “it won’t fail for lack of stamina.”

Many people look at Sire Statistics to try and find if

a Sire has bred winners over the distance or on the

ground. It is very unscientific but no less so than so

many other different approaches to picking horses.

 

**********************************************

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

**********************************************

 

Today I want to look at Wednesday’s National Hunt

Chase. Run over 4 miles it is a race where stamina

most definitely comes into play.

A simplistic stamina check is to see if a horse’s sire

has bred winners at long distances.

 

I however want to go the extra mile, dig a bit deeper

and determine if it has done it in the class and on the ground.

 

I have done it this way.

 

* I looked at all the Sires winners

* I found out how many won at 3m 4f or more

* I found out how many have done that on Soft ground

* I found out how many of those did it in Class 3 or more

 

Below you can see my executive summary of this sire research

 

SIRE PERFORMANCE RANKINGS

1) GODSMEJUDGE- Excellent Performance scores

2) MERRY KING – Excellent Performance scores

3) SEA OF THUNDER – Excellent Performance scores

4) VESPER BELL – Enough promise to pass as fine

5) BENHEIR -Enough promise to pass as fine

6) ROSE OF THE MOON – Acceptable scores

7) HIGHLAND LODGE – Acceptable scores

8 ) EMPEROR´S CHOICE – Acceptable scores

9) HAWKES POINT – Not far away but has a bit to prove

10)TOUR DES CHAMPS – Borderline Results

11) BACK IN FOCUS – Stamina not guaranteed

12) RIVAL D´ESTRUVAL – Inconclusive and unproven

13) REAL MILAN – Unproven but small sample size

14) LYREEN LEGEND – Inconclusive and unproven

15) TOFINO BAY – Inconclusive but stamina doubts

16) BUDDY BOLERO – Doubts about stamina

 

For most of you that executive summary will be all you need

to add an element of Sire / Stamina assessment to your own analysis

of this race.

 

I have however posted on our private member message

boards an additional full breakdown of every horse

and a record of the winners the sire has had when

the ground was soft and when running in the class.

I do not want to clutter this piece listing everything.

 

Below however is the section on the current market leader

 

* BACK IN FOCUS

* The Sire has 517 winners

* Record over 3m 4f or more is 7-97

* Record on Softer Ground over 3m 4f + is 4-80

* Softer Ground at 3m 4f in Class 3 + is 1-24

* There is a slight problem here

* Minella Four Star won the 2011 Midlands National

* That was 4m 1f in Listed Class on Good to Soft

* That was the winner in the 1-24 record

* Officially it was Good to Soft that day

* It was actually good ground as it dried out

* You could see this as a 0-23 or a 1-24 record

* Depends which side of the fence you want to sit

* Results and Assessment of his Stamina Profile

* 0-23 or 1-24 record. Stamina not quite certain

 

This analysis leads me to believe there are stamina doubts

about this horse.

 

Bear in mind however that stamina and sire analysis is only one

piece of the puzzle.

I have many more checks to do before considering

my own final selection for this race on Wednesday.

 

I do hope you are with me as a client under of discounted and

guaranteed Cheltenham deal at that point.

Here is the cheap deal link

 

**********************************************

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

**********************************************

 

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

PS New clients who joined us for last Saturday

have already had their bank rolls boosted for Cheltenham.

Three advised tips – Won 4/1 – 2nd at 7/1 to land each way advice

and a yet to run long odds ante post tip for Cheltenham day 1

 

 

PPS If you are a bit of a stat head and would like a copy of the

stamina stats for the other runners in this race, just contact me and say so

clearly. I will pass them on to you.

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

You will have no trouble finding stats for the Gold Cup.

Below however are some of my own extracted from my 50 page
Cheltenham stats document. Use them to supplement your own
study of the race or even better perhaps, save your brain
cells and read my own final interpretation of this race on
race day as a client.

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

We did well in this race year using the excessive media hype
around the the Kauto Star Long Run battle to pick of value
odds on Synchronised. See a copy of our reasoning at this
link    Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

 

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2013 Stats

Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

 

* The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y

* 16 of the last 17 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts

* The exception was Kauto Star with 20 Chases in 2009

* The last 16 winners ran in the following number of chases

* 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

* Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled

* Ignoring French runs they had a 0-88 record

* You are best with an improving lightly raced horse

* Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record.

* They’ve won 17 of the last 19 Cheltenham Gold Cups.

* Horses aged 10 do not have a great record

* Horses aged 10 have a 1-93 record since 1992

* Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969

* All 38 that ran in the last 18 years lost.

* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.

* I wouldn’t’t want a horse with fewer runs that season

* Horses absent more than 10 weeks are fine

* Previous track form is a serious advantage in this race.

* This advantage is increased if horse had Festival form.

* 12 of the last 15 winners placed at a previous Festival.

* Almost all past winners placed or fell last time out

* The only exception was 2011 winner 5th in a Grade 1

* Every winner had won in one of their last 6 races.

* A rating of around 166 is needed to win this race

* Horses from a Grade 1 – Grade 2 chase last time are best

* Horses that placed or won a Grade 1/Grade 2 were best

* Every winner since 1992 had managed that

* A Novice has not won the Gold Cup since 1974

* Two recent winners came from Handicaps

* Both those winners had Grade 1 Form before

* No winners since 1979 had ran on the Flat

 

 

Service News

Cheltenham betting action has started already with a long
odds ante post tip advised to clients this morning. Ante Post
betting before the start of the Festival is safer these days
with an abundance of non runner no bet offers.

We are playing in the 2.40 on Tuesday – The JLT Specialty
Handicap Chase

This was yet another good race for us in 2012 with advised
bet ALFIE SHERRIN winning nicely for us. ALFIE SHERRIN was
available at 20/1 at bookmakers for hours after we tipped
him and probably even greater odds were available on betfair
.

We said at the time:

* ALFIE SHERRIN is very interesting

* Go back to the 2010 Cheltenham Festival

* He was a huge gamble starting 11/4 for the Pertemps

* He was Paul Nicholls trained then moved to Jonjo

* Had his quirks – been hard to train – but has some positives

* ALFIE SHERRIN is rated 147 over hurdles

* Today over fences he is rated 129

* The first thing we know is he is very well treated

* The next thing we know are his connections

* JP McManus and Jonjo O’Neill

* We know we can put a line through several runs

* There is every chance he has been saved for this race

* I opposed him in the Midlands Grand National

* He was too inexperienced and after than he was unreadable

* Switched between Hurdles and Chases and different distances

* I think he is being conditioned to win a good race

* His jumping may not be as safe as I’d like

* Not sure how robust or reliable he is

* I watched both his last two races though

* Both left me certain he was given quiet rides

* JPMcManus paid £110k for this horse. He wasn’t cheap.

* He should be much happier on this ground

* Not keen he comes from hurdles or out or the handicap

* I do think the good outweighs the bad at 20/1 +

* Tony McCoy can’t do 10st which is why he doesn’t ride

* I see him very much as the Stables Number 1 option

* He could easily fall or go missing without trace

* Equally he is thrown in and this could be his day

 

But who are we on this year?

 

Take the secret cheap deal and find out.

Be sure to pick up today’s message in our member area when
you do.

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

 

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

William Hill Supreme Novices´ Hurdle Stats

Today I wanted to share with you some of my advance research
work for one of the major Cheltenham Races

Like all good boy scouts I believe it pays to be prepared.

I always do a huge amount of research and preparation
in advance of Cheltenham.

On daily day to day racing even I am always a few days ahead.

Today I released to full members a huge 50 page Cheltenham
Stats pdf

There are two sections to it

#1 Generic Stats

These cover the Festival as a whole or look at certain race types such as hurdles or handicap chases.

I have sent you a few snippets from the Generic Stats section
over the past two days

#2 Individual Race Stats

These look at a particular race and I guess attempt to

profile the characterises of winners and losers from many
years of that race.

So today I will give you one of those individual race stat
reports.

Members today got the huge pdf

Those that like to come up with bets of their own

are therefore now provided with a huge amount of research
that can enable them to make more informed decisions
and possibly pick off a bit of ante post value.

On race day I add to these raw stats with my own cross referencing
of runners against the stats, with going known and market odds
available

I make my final advised bet decision for clients on race day
morning.

So self thinkers are well catered for.

If all you want is my final opinion in the form of a tip,
well clients get that on race day.

Stats such as the below however are my advance preparation
and foundation work.

Anyhow onto the promised Race Stats Breakdown.

 

Cheltenham Tuesday 1.30

William Hill Supreme Novices´ Hurdle

Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m110y

* Horses aged 5 or 6 won 34 of the last 37 renewals

* Only 1 horse aged 4 has won this race recently

* He came from a Graded race and won a champion hurdle

* English horses aged 7 or more were 0-31

* English horses aged 5 won 5 renewals

* Four of these had 3-6 career starts the other 9

* They all had 3 or 4 runs that season

* English horses aged 5 with No Grade 1 form won 2 races

* English horses aged 5 absent over a month are 1-44

* The longest absence an English 5yo had was 52 days

* English horses aged 6 won 3 renewals

* All 3 came from Class 3 Novice Hurdles

* Last Time out winners have a strong record

* 15 of the last 17 winners won last time

* Horses unplaced last time out were 0-124

* Horses with 1 run have not won since 1991

* Ideally you need 2 + runs over Hurdles before

* If it’s soft ground you need at least 3 previous races

* 9 of the last 20 winners had ran no more than twice over
hurdles

* The last 3 winners did have 4 previous hurdle starts

* Avoid horses with 6 or more runs over hurdles

* Horses with 9 + runs were 1-42

* You need to have run in Class 3 or higher last time

* I wont bet any horses that ran within 2 weeks

* I wont bet any horse stepping down from 19f or more (0-27)

* I wont bet any horse that wears headgear

* Female horses are fine as long as they pass other trends

* Horses from Handicaps have a 0-42 record

* Last years runner up did come from a handicap

* The 2010 runner did as well so the stats vulnerable

* English horses with less than 2 wins were 0-115

* You need a run within 80 days unless very lightly raced

* The vast majority of winners run within 7 weeks

* There were 2 winners absent more than 60 days

* Both had just 2 previous hurdle starts

* English horses from Graded Novice hurdles are 1-43

* That winner was last year so an unsafe statistic

* Every English winner had 2-5 runs this season

* English horses absent 53 days or more were 0-57

* There was one winner absent 115 days

 

 

Here is that secret cheap deal link again

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

I will tell you what to back this Cheltenham and Why.

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Cheltenham Festival

Novice Handicap Chase Stat

Today I want to give you a statistic to bear in mind

for next week’s Handicap Chases. That’s any and

every Handicap Chase except the Novice Handicap.

I have examined all Handicap Chases run in the

last 15 years and more. Because it involves every

handicap it’s a solid trend.

 

* All Handicap Chases at the Cheltenham Festival

* I looked at horses from a Novice Handicap Chase

* All 19 that tried to do this Lost with these results

* 4 6 8 F PU 10 PU 12 7 9 13 F 13 7 PU PU 12 14 8

* None of the 19 horses Placed 1-2-3 in these races

Many people think you want a lightly raced chaser

thats improving from Novice Company and there is

no problem at all with that sort of horse. However

whilst many festival handicap chases are won by

horses that come from Novice Chases there hasn’t

yet been one that has been won by a horse that is

coming from a Novice Handicap. Admittedly only

19 of these tried but they all finished 4th or worse.

 

 

Cheltenham Deal Now Live

I have had many emails this week asking if and when our Cheltenham
deal would go live.

Today is the day

See www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

 

Key Points:

• You get a heavily discounted first month of full membership
  here
• Arguably the most in depth Cheltenham Analysis around.
• Your month will also include the major Grand National
  Festival at Aintree
• Rock solid Guarantee. Decide AFTER Cheltenham if we provided
  you top class value or not.

 

 

Should I join Now or just before Cheltenham?

I would say right now. You get immediate access to full service
membership.

There will be a fair bit of action this weekend to look forward
to with the likes of the Imperial Cup and Sandown to get stuck
into.

A few days of feet finding as a member will do you no harm
before Cheltenham starts on Tuesday.

Here is that secret cheap deal link again

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

Best Wishes

Guy Ward

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

PS I will back tomorrow with further free Cheltenham nuggets
of info.

Not quite sure what with yet but it might be a look at an
individual Cheltenham race from a stats and trends point of
view.

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races