Cheltenham Gold Cup

Cheltenham 3.20

LAST INSTALMENT 7/1 Win Bet

ON HIS OWN 22/1 Each Way

The main issues are well documented. I feel
LAST INSTALMENT has every chance and has
one of the best two profiles. My each way bet
ON HIS OWN is obviously a hard case to make.
I think he is a crazy sort of price and although
many argue he fails trends it is not necessarily
the case. I think these 2 have serious chances.

 

Cheltenham 3.20

Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m2f110y

7/4 Bobs Worth, 5/2 Silviniaco Conti, 13/2 Last Instalment
8/1 Triolo D´alene, 14/1 The Giant Bolster 16/1 On His Own
25/1 Lord Windermere, 33/1 Teaforthree
40/1 Lyreen Legend, 50/1 Katenko, 66/1 Cloudy Too
66/1 Knockara Beau, 100/1 Houblon Des Obeaux.

* The Blue Riband event of the festival
* Lets get rid of the No Hopers
* Horses aged 11 and over have not won this race since 1969.
* KNOCKARA BEAU is too old and not good enough
* KATENKO and CLOUDY TOO are outclassed
* HOUBLON DES OBEAUX is not good enough
* TEAFORTHREE is out of his depth

* TRIOLO D´ALENE won the Hennessy last time out
* Bobs Worth did that recently but I can’t have him
* Bobs Worth was a Grade 1 Festival winner
* TRIOLO D´ALENE has never run in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race
* His 2 previous runs here were heavy defeats
* TRIOLO D´ALENE is rated only 158 far too low

* LORD WINDERMERE and LYREEN LEGEND are connected
* They were 1st and 2nd in last years RSA Chase at the festival

* LYREEN LEGEND was 2nd in last years RSA Chase
* It would worry me he has won just 1 of 8 Chases
* He is rated lower than any recent Gold Cup winner
* The last 23 winners had this in common
* They had a Racing Post Rating of 155 + last time out
* LYREEN LEGEND only managed a rating of 154
* After 18 career starts 154 is his highest Racing Post Rating
* Every other horse has bettered that rating before
* That amongst other things must rule him out

* LORD WINDERMERE has a similar profile and problem
* He is rated lower than any recent Gold Cup winner
* The last 23 winners had this in common
* They had a Racing Post Rating of 155 + last time out
* After 15 career starts 157 is his highest Racing Post Rating
* Almost every other horse has bettered that rating before
* LORD WINDERMERE only managed a rating of 157

Now if LYREEN LEGEND or LORD WINDERMERE win this
race at a big price it will be down to the fact the course
ground or time of year brings them alive but I suspect it
was a very poor RSA Chase last year which was openly
said at the time and these two dominated a bad renewal
and it is hard to make a case for them when they have a
set of numbers that just look so far behind the standard.

SILVINIACO CONTI

I don’t doubt he has enough ability to win this race but
I feel he is too short around 100/30 for a horse that may
not stay. When he fell in last year’s race some argue he
wasn’t beaten but I doubt he would have stayed on well
enough to win. I question his stamina. I don’t like horses
that are undersized like him. He isn’t a big horse and he
is not proven yet in a field as big as this. Statistical he’s
fine but I don’t like his size and question his stamina as
he is taking on some big Irish improvers with substance.

BOBS WORTH

Little doubt he’s top class and won this last year and was
always going to have a good profile this year. He has got
a massive chance but not really for me. I wouldn’t want to
ask him to win this again. It was a gruelling race last year
and he was in trouble at one stage before staying on late.
On this ground he could find himself in more trouble and
having to come from off the pace. We can’t be sure last
years race has not left it’s mark. Last season he recorded
Racing Post Ratings of 167 174 and 181 yet this year from
two runs he has clocked just 142 and 163 and there is the
possibility he won’t recapture last years form. He is still
the most likely winner but at the price I am against him.
He touched 10/1 in running last year and on fast ground
he could easily do the same this year. I just don’t like the
short price when he will be carrying battle scars this year.

 

THE GIANT BOLSTER

* THE GIANT BOLSTER now has 19 previous chase runs
* Recent Gold Cup winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 8 9 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11 Chases
* He is now out of range of the ideal profile
* 16 of the last 17 winners had 13 or fewer Chase runs
* He was 4th last year and 2nd in 2012 though
* He Loves the track and has plenty of class
* I did see him as a potential each way bet at 16/1
* He wants fast ground and a small field
* He should love the ground but the field size worries me
* 14 runners is not as small as I’d like
* I think he is at the limit of his stamina
* He has won over 3m 1f 100 yds before
* His Sire has not yet bred a winner winning over further
* You couldn’t rule him out but maybe just falls short

ON HIS OWN

* This horse is a 10 year old
* Horses aged 10 or more have a 1-93 record since 1993
* It’s not the best of records but don’t worry about that
* He is a late foal and actually not quite 10 yet in real terms
* ON HIS OWN does have only 12 career starts though
* 16 of the last 17 winners had 13 or fewer Chase runs
* That goes a log way to compensating for his age
* He also didn’t start racing until he was almost 6 years old
* I have mentioned I think he will win the Grand National
* He has every right to run here after a brilliant last win
* His last 2 runs show significant improvement
* There is a case that he jumps a bit right handed
* He has won left handed three times before though
* The track is an open question mark
* Ignore his poor run here back in 2011 over 4m
* He had no chance in that race and it’s irrelevant
* He was 4th in a Neptune Hurdle which is encouraging
* Ability wise I think he has everything he needs to win
* Just not sure about whether he can deliver here or not

LAST INSTALMENT

* He is a lightly raced improver
* He won the Irish Hennessy last time
* He has won 5 of his 6 Chase runs so far
* Recent Gold Cup winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 8 9 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11 Chases
* LAST INSTALMENT has 6 runs and I quite like that
* One of his problem is No form at Cheltenham
* That is a disadvantage he has to overcome
* 13 of the last 16 winners placed at a previous Cheltenham Festival.
* The other is the ground as most of his form’s on soft
* Said to have fragile tendons it would be a worry
* That said the new course is slower than the old course
* He has a very appealing profile and the potential to win

 

Selections

LAST INSTALMENT 7/1 Win Bet

ON HIS OWN 22/1 Each Way

For Live best odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2014-03-14/cheltenham/15-20/betting/

 

 

 

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Posted under Major Horse Races

Mathematician 1840

No Account Bet 

Day 2 of the Festival usually the quietest day for
bets and no account bet today.  I think we have
to be very realistic. The last 3 races on the card
are next to impossible. Tactically it makes sense
to turn these races down and use that time for a
lot of serious races tomorrow. Therefore today is
a 4 race message as only 4 races can be sorted.

I will give my Best Bet from the message which
will send a shiver down the spine of many of you.

My own personal best bet is a variation of this
bet but as this is in the “Without the favourite”
market I can’t go with it as some won’t get on.

 
Today’s Best Bet
 
Cheltenham 3.20

SOMERSBY 16/1 Each Way

SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 – Saver Bet

Cheltenham Selections

Cheltenham 1.30 – FAUGHEEN 6/4

Cheltenham 2.05 – DON COSSACK 14/1 Each Way

Cheltenham 3.20 – SOMERSBY 16/1 Each Way
Cheltenham 3.20 – SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 – Saver Bet

Cheltenham 4.00 – BALTHAZAR KING 6/1 Win Bet
Cheltenham 4.00 – BIG SHU 4/1 Saver Bet

 

 

Today’s Bets

 
Cheltenham 3.20

SOMERSBY 16/1 Each Way

SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 – Saver Bet

 
Obviously choice is limited from 4 races. I would
not put FAUGHEEN up at a short price but I could
easily have done something with Sire De Grugy,

Cheltenham 1.30 – FAUGHEEN 6/4
Cheltenham 3.20 – SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1

I did consider the each way double
I also considered 2 win bets and an each way double

My own personal biggest bet today will be this

Cheltenham 3.20

Without The Favourite Market

SOMERSBY 12/1- 14/1 Each Way

14/1 Ladbrokes
12/1 Corals PPower Chandler
10/1 Bet365 9/1 Boyles

Obviously this is “Un-tippable” in a Novelty market
as most people would not get a bet on so Instead
I will go with the following as my best bet today.

Cheltenham 3.20

SOMERSBY 16/1 Each Way

SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 – Saver Bet

Saver Bets

Just to clarify the issue with Savers. When I suggest
a saver the purpose is to make sure you break level
on the bet if the saver wins. The main selection will
be the horse to try and get the profit. The saver has
the job of recovering stakes if the main bet loses.

 

Generic Statistics
            
* No Horse Qualifies today
* Partly due to no handicap chases

 

 

Y e s t e r d a y ‘s  S u m m a r y

Very interesting day full of highs and lows with the
worst of it being two account losers. I pointed out
that this was always possible and that the winners
may come in the other races and they did. Happy
enough with a message that went P L L W W L P.

I was pleased we had the Supreme Novice winner
much as that was only as the saver. With Hindsight
I should have gone with the winner but my angles
worked out well and pleased me. Dodging Bullets
could only managed 4th but ran well enough. The
bet on TOUR DES CHAMPS 16/1 Each Way looked
good as he was bowling along nicely in front with
plenty in trouble behind. The problem is that it’s a
hard thing to make all and he paid a bit and then
dropped back. What was incredible was he came
back at them and stayed on and was only beaten
a Neck for 4th place. He was that close to Placing
that it felt unlucky. The Generic Statistics were so
disappointing in the race it was a double blow for
us. Maybe the unusually fast ground was the main
reason those angles did not work out. Overall the
race was a disaster. It got much better with JEZKI
winning the Champion Hurdle at a big price. The
horse has been on my radar for weeks it was just
annoying I couldn’t be more confident. QUEVEGA
was brilliant. We made money on the race which
was the important thing in a low key race. Sadly
jubilation turned to misery with FOXROCK despite
travelling like a really good horse he either paid
for one or two mistakes or didn’t get the trip. The
combination of both killed him. ATTAGLANCE was
a desperately unlucky second. At least we won a
bit each way but he would have won that race if
his jockey hadn’t gone for a gap that wasn’t there.

So overall a 2-0 account bet day is disappointing
but we had winners and no luck at all especially
Tour Des Champs failing to place by a neck after
making all the running and Attaglance robbed by
a bad ride. Given how hard this meeting is I think
we came out of yesterday with plenty of credit.

 

 

P R O F I L E S    &   P R E V I E W S

 

C h e l t e n h a m   1.30

Neptune Investment Management Novices4 Hurdle
(Registered As Baring Bingham Novices4 Hurdle)
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m5f

9/4 Faugheen, 7/2 Red Sherlock, 6/1 Rathvinden
12/1 Lieutenant Colonel, 14/1 Ballyalton
20/1 Cup Final, 20/1 Fennell Bay, 25/1 Killala Quay,
0/1 Cocktails At Dawn, 50/1 Cole Harden, 50/1 Knock House
50/1 Shanahan4s Turn, 66/1 Creepy, 100/1 Twelve Roses
200/1 Midnight Thunder.

* This is a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 2m 5f
* Look at the past 10 winners of this race
* They had achieved the following Racing Post Ratings
* Thats the best ratings achieved before they ran in this race
* 156 153 145 161 158 136 147 146 145 148
* 9 of the last 10 winners had a figure of at least 145
* Only Fiveforthree (2008) had not done that
* FENNELL BAY’s best figure is a measly 126
* FENNELL BAY is a 5 year old with 2 hurdle starts
* Miles to find on the numbers I couldn’t touch him
* BALLYALTON has only done a 136 ratings
* He is a 7 year old not the best age either
* LIEUTENANT COLONEL has achieved a 139 RPR
* That means 9 of the last 10 winners achieved more
* I like that he has improved on each performance
* He does have quite a bit to find with a few of these
* KILLALA QUAY – I don’t want a 7yo pulling up last time
* CUP FINAL is a 5yo with 2 hurdle runs
* All the big guns have more hurdle runs
* That should catch him out and he is rejected

Shortlist

* RED SHERLOCK has won all of his 6 races
* His best performance was last time and he is 2-2 here
* I do have some concerns though
* He had a hard race in heavy ground last time out
* I would be worried that took too much out of him
* He is reported to swish his tail once whipped

* RATHVINDEN was 2nd behind Red Sherlook last time
* He had an interrupted preparation before that race
* He doesn’t have much to find as he is 3lbs better off
* Looks a solid each chance with two flaws
* He is not the stable number 1. That is Faugheen
* He is also not the biggest of horses
* RATHVINDEN could easily place here

* FAUGHEEN is Willie Mullins Number 1
* He is unbeaten 3 of which were in hurdles
* Clearly a high class prospect to be considered
 
Conclusion

I think FAUGHEEN has more improvement than
Red Sherlock and is the most likely winner. It’s
tempting to go with RED SHERLOCK each way
given there are issues with FAUGHEEN not least
fluency in his jumping. You could argue a good
case for FAUGHEEN in an each way double too.
There are sorts of staking options here such as
a split stake bet with FAUGHEEN to win and the
place bet on RATHVINDEN. I think we are spoilt
for choice with staking options and much has to
depend on what sort of bets and risk you prefer.
FAUGHEEN – RED SHERLOCK – RATHVINDEN are
my 1-2-3 in that order. I will go with FAUGHEEN

Selection

FAUGHEEN

 

 

C h e l t e n h a m   2.05

RSA Chase (Grade 1) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m110y

 5/1 Ballycasey, 6/1 Smad Place, 13/2 Morning Assembly
7/1 Carlingford Lough, 8/1 Corrin Wood, 10/1 Don Cossack
10/1 Le Bec, 10/1 Sam Winner, 12/1 O4faolains Boy
14/1 Many Clouds, 16/1 Annacotty, 20/1 Black Thunder
25/1 Just A Par, 33/1 Gevrey Chambertin, 50/1 Samingarry.

* The RSA Chase is a Grade 1 over an extended 3m
* Just a few background statistics to show a certain type
* The last 14 winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 3 5 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4
* The last 14 winners had these Hurdle + Chase runs
* 11 9 11 11 12 9 10 10 18 11 9 9 8 9
* They all had at least 3 runs that season as well
* Every winner since 1991 ran within 53 days
* The last 49 winners all had a run in the same calendar year
* The last 7 winners were aged 7
* Horses aged 6 have underperformed over the years
* Only 2 have won since as far back as 1978

* ANNACOTTY  is a 6 year old which is a problem
* He technically is not 6 for another month anyway
* The weights suggest he will struggle anyway
* I couldn’t have him from a Novice Handicap
* GEVREY CHAMBERTIN is 6 and far too inexperienced
* LE BEC is not 6 for another 2 months
* With a nasty absence he has to go
* SAMINGARRY is outclassed
* JUST A PAR is too inexperienced and lacks the class
* The last 14 winners had the following Chase starts
* 5 3 5 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4
* BALLYCASEY only has 2 Chase starts a serious worry
* I do not like that lack of inexperience over fences
* The last 14 winners had these Hurdle + Chase runs
* 11 9 11 11 12 9 10 10 18 11 9 9 8 9
* BALLYCASEY only has 6 National Hunt runs
* He just looks short  of experience to me
* 19 of the last 21 winners had at least 9 career starts
* BALLYCASEY is not for me with just 6
* There must be a chance he won’t stay anyway
* His 4 runs over 3m or more were all defeats
* Admittedly 3 were in Point to Points but it’s a worry
* SMAD PLACE has placed in a World Hurdle
* That was one of 7 times he has lost in Grade 1 races
* His 3 Chase runs were all in Non Graded races
* The last 11 winners all had form in Graded Chases
* SMAD PLACE lacks that and has a questionable profile
* With 19 runs he’d be the most exposed winner in years
* SMAD PLACE doesn’t do it for me
* Not with a recent heavy ground win
* BLACK THUNDER’s profile is not that bad
* Certainly as good as you could hope for a 25/1 chance
* Held on form there look pacier types against him
* Not keen on his size or his prospects on the ground
* We know the last 11 winners all had form in Graded Chases
* SAM WINNER does not have that
* CORRIN WOOD does not have that
* SAM WINNER has run on the flat which isn’t ideal
* He looks a tough more exposed than would be ideal
* Will like the ground but a lack of graded chase form worries me
* CORRIN WOOD also lacks graded chase form
* The other strike against him is his absence
* Longer than any winner since 1991 albeit not by much
* CARLINGFORD LOUGH unseated rider last time out
* Thats not a good sign at all
* The last 26 winners of this race were 1-2-3 last time out
* He is also 8 which isn’t the best age
* He has 19 runs which is more than any recent winner
* He has 13 Chase starts which sounds too many
* Recent winners had 5 3 5 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4 Chase runs
* CARLINGFORD LOUGH may not be the right type
* MANY CLOUDS is a decent enough chaser
* I don’t mind his profile but he is not my first choice
* Over trips of 19f 20f 21f he is W 2 W 2 W W
* Over trips of 22f or more he is 2 2 PU
* I just don’t like his better record over shorter
* Not keen on his trainer or his record in big fields either
* O4FAOLAINS BOY won the Reynoldstown last time
* That’s not the best of preparations winning that race
* A bit short on experience with 3 Chase runs with a Pulled Up
* Can’t be ruled out but I don’t see enough positives
* MORNING ASSEMBLY has a 73 day absence
* We know the last 49 winners ran in the same calendar year
* That absence is a negative about his profile
* He has never ran away from soft ground either
* These issues and no track form are the main worries
* Otherwise he looks a smart prospect
* DON COSSACK could go well if his jumping holds
* I like his profile and his recent race
* Many will assume he can’t reverse form with Ballycasey
* I wouldn’t be so sure over this 3m trip which
* DON COSSACK has won on good ground
* I see him as the value in the race

Selection

DON COSSACK 14/1

Each Way

 

 

 

C h e l t e n h a m   3.20

BetVictor Queen Mother Champion Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m

9/4 Sire De Grugy, 9/2 Captain Conan, 11/2 Arvika Ligeonniere
7/1 Baily Green, 10/1 Hinterland, 10/1 Kid Cassidy
12/1 Sizing Europe 14/1 Module, 14/1 Somersby
20/1 Special Tiara 25/1 Wishfull Thinking.

* This is a Grade 1 Chase over 2 miles

* The form horse is clearly SIRE DE GRUGY
* He tops the Official ratings and Racing Post Ratings
* There are doubts if you want to oppose him
* He has never been to a Cheltenham Festival before
* That’s unusual and his Cheltenham form is questionable
* There is more than a suspicion this may not be his track
* His Jockey is talented but is hardly a positive
* Jamie Moore is 0-55 riding at the festival
* SIRE DE GRUGY has also had a busier season than I’d want
* The last few winners had the following runs that season
* 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 1 4 4 4 2 4 5 3 7 3
* SIRE DE GRUGY has 5 runs this season
* That is more than the last 17 winners had
* I think there are plenty of doubts about him

* Horses aged 11 + rarely have the Speed to win.
* They did win in 2005 and 1977 but are best opposed
* The age of recent winners is as follows
* 9-9-9-6-5-6-8-11-7-9-8-8-9-10-10-7-8-7-8-8-8-9-8-9
* SIZING EUROPE wouldn’t interest me as a 12yo
* This race started in 1959 and only the 1977 winner was 12
* WISHFUL THINKING is 11 and makes limited appeal
* Horses aged 10 haven’t won since 1998

* BAILY GREEN has 21 previous Chase runs which is a lot
* Past winners had the following number of Chase starts
  7 7 9 13 12 8 9 8 22 8 11 18 23 4 24 12 11 11 18 14 9 15 14 8
* The last 8 winners had 7-13 Chase runs
* There are some before that with a similar number of runs
* He was 2nd in an Arkle so should be respected
* He comes here losing his last 9 races though
* Well beaten over hurdles last time doesn’t inspire either
* His 21 Chase runs produced a best 158 Racing Post Rating
* That should not be good enough to win
* There are horses in this race with better ratings last time
* Arvika Ligeonniere, Captain Conan, Sire De Grugy, Wishfull Thinking
* These 4 horses recorded better Racing Post Ratings last time out
* They had better ratings that BAILY GREEN has in 21 Chase starts
* I may be wrong in looking at this approach
* I appreciate the ratings are all under different circumstances
* It still puts me off BAILY GREEN in a Grade 1 off level weights

* HINTERLAND is a 6 year old
* It would worry me he has just 5 Chase starts
* Recent winners had the following number of Chase starts
* 7-7-13-12-8-9-8-22-8-11-18-23-4-24-12-11-11-18-14-9-15-14-8.
* Since 1989 only 1 winner had under 7 Chase starts
* That was the 1999 winner who had 4 Chase starts
* The 2007 winner was 6 but the hot favourite fell that year
* The last 6 year old to win before that was in 1973
* HINTERLAND – You don’t want a 6yo with just 5 Chase runs

* KID CASSIDY has to be given a chance
* His career best run has come over 2m at Cheltenham
* His last run was poor though not a good sign
* 30 of the last 32 winners were 1-2-3 last time out
* The only 2 that were not both fell
* No winners have won after such a poor run as he had

* MODULE – I just don’t see enough I like
* SPECIAL TIARA disappointed last time out
* I can forgive that on heavy ground in a small field
* He was beaten here in December over 2m
* He was 3rd behind Kid Cassidy and Sire De Grugy
* SPECIAL TIARA was really having his seasonal debut that day
* He’d fallen at the first on his first run of the year
* He has to improve but it’s not a huge amount to find

* ARVIKA LIGEONNEIRE has the track to overcome
* 8 of his 9 career wins were going right handed
* His 2 Cheltenham runs were both well below expectations
* So much class I couldn’t rule him out
* There are too many doubts about track and ground

* CAPTAIN CONAN is the type to win at the Festival
* He looked like winning last years Jewson but didn’t stay
* This 2m distance could suit him best of all
* CAPTAIN CONAN has 6 Chase starts
* Recent winners had the following number of Chase starts
* 7-7-13-12-8-9-8-22-8-11-18-23-4-24-12-11-11-18-14-9-15-14-8.
* CAPTAIN CONAN is 1 short of being ideal
* I can overlook that much as I’d prefer 7 Chase runs
* I also have to overlook just 1 run this season
* Past winners had the following runs that year
* 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 1 4 4 4 2 4 5 3 7 3
* Only 8yo Flagship Uberalles has won with 1 run this year
* Said to be working well after a back injury
* I see him as a potential winner but I need to turn a blind eye
* To his 6 Chase runs and just 1 run this season
 

Part of me wants to go with CAPTAIN CONAN each way
and to ignore my concerns instead relying on the skills
of Nicky Henderson who is sure to have him close to his
best. Everyone knows ARVIKA LIGEONNEIRE’s flaws but
surely 8/1 is a big price. Then I decided to review what
I feared most about SIRE DE GRUGY. I decided to isolate
2m Cheltenham performances on Racing Post Ratings.

Racing Post Ratings
Cheltenham runs only
2 Miles only
Since 2012

174 Sizing Europe
170 Sire De Grugy Sizing Europe
162 Kid Cassidy Wishful Thinking
161 Special Tiara
158 Baily Green
157 Wishful Thinking
155 Somersby
154 Captain Conan
147 Kid Cassidy

Sizing Europe has the best figure and joint 2nd best
which were recorded at the 2012 and 2013 Festivals.
I don’t want to go with him as a 12 year old but clear
2nd best is SIRE DE GRUGY with a course & distance
Racing Post Rating of 170 which is 8lbs higher than
all other runners. This leads me to think that there’s
no real case for saying he doesn’t like the track and
it will surely be difficult to rule him out of the 1-2-3.
It won’t be palatable to some but we are talking just
11 runners of which 4 are outsiders and 1/4 the odds.
 
SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 Each Way is a good bet

However

SOMERSBY is 16/1

SOMERSBY is also in the “Without the favourite” market

This is betting without SIRE DE GRUGY

14/1 Ladbrokes
12/1 Corals PPower Chandler
10/1 Bet365
9/1 Boyles

Now I appreciate 10 years old is a bit older than ideal

I appreciate he doesn’t have the best record here and
it is not his course and you can argue he has had his
chance. But he was 2nd in an Arkle and placed in the
Supreme Novice. He has placed in a Grade 1 here as
well and he is effective. It’s not his ideal track but the
horse has some good runs here before.

Besides that people are saying Sire De Grugy doesn’t
like this track and Arvika Ligeonniere hates it as well.

No Sprinter Sacre. This must be the worst Champion
Chase for donkey’s years. He likes a small field and a
quicker surface as well. He surely must be the value

He won the Haldon Gold Cup just 3 runs ago

He was then 2nd in the Tingle Creek just behind Sire De Grugy

Last time he unseated rider but he was only 11/4 to beat
Sire De Grugy in that race and now he is much bigger.

Final Selection

“Without the favourite” market

SOMERSBY 12/1 or 14/1 Each Way

Anyone who can’t get on this market can
bet SOMERSBY each way 16/1 in this race.
 
SIRE DE GRUGY 3/1 – Saver Bet

 

 

C h e l t e n h a m   4.00

Glenfarclas Handicap Chase
(A Cross Country Chase)  (CLASS 2) (5yo+) 3m7f

4/1 Big Shu, 5/1 Balthazar King, 8/1 Sire Collonges
8/1 Star Neuville, 9/1 Love Rory, 10/1 Any Currency
11/1 Quantitativeeasing, 12/1 Bishopsfurze, 14/1 Sizing Australia
14/1 Uncle Junior, 16/1 Diamond Harry, 16/1 Quiscover Fontaine
20/1 A Stray Shot, 20/1 Duke Of Lucca, 25/1 Hey Big Spender
33/1 Sin Palo.

* The Cross Country Chase has 9 past renewals
* DIAMOND HARRY – I don’t think he stays this far
* LOVE RORY – I don’t want a 6 year old in these races
* He is not technically a 6 year old for a few more weeks anyway
* He won a Cross Country race at Punchestown last time
* He beat Big Shu that day but the latter needed the race
* He has no Cheltenham form and has too much to prove
* UNCLE JUNIOR is wrong as an out of form 13 year old
* STAR NEUVILLE doesn’t do it for me
* I don’t like him coming from a 2m 4f race
* Not with just 1 run this season
* The 9 past winners had the following Chase starts
* 7 13 17 48 11 15 14 16 30
* STAR NEUVILLE has only had 5 chase starts
* QUANTITATIVEEASING looks too risky
* Not sure he has the experience in this discipline
* QUISCOVER FONTAINE – Not for me on this ground
* BISHOPSFURZE fell on his cross country debut
* Not a good experience and the ground is faster than ideal
* His sire hasn’t yet bred a winner over 3m 2f or more
* He has yet to show this track suits him
* May win but he has plenty to prove
* SIZING AUSTRALIA is a past winner of this in 2011
* Not sure you can rule him out on ground he likes
* I just don’t want a 12 year old on drying ground
* He was well beaten in last years race
* SIRE COLLONGES – No killer stat to rule him out
* Far from convinced he is good enough though
* ANY CURRENCY has a 9 3 2 cross country record
* Should go well but I don’t think he fully stays this far
* He comes from a handicap chase. No winner did that
* I thought a place was more likely than a win

Shortlist
 
* BIG SHU won this race easily last season
* Huge player again but he is 18lbs higher this year
* He is also very lightly raced this season
* The first 8 winners of this had 5 3 9 3 3 6 4 4 runs that year
* BIG SHU won last year with 1 run and a point to point as well
* My worry is whether he is just short of a run
* He does  have improvement in him so must be considered
* 1 run this year makes him a Saver rather than selection

* BALTHAZAR KING has 117 days off and topweight
* I don’t think that’s an impossible task
* The 2010 winner had 88 days off and that weight
* BALTHAZAR KING won this in 2012 but didn’t run in 2013’s year
* The ground is also in his favour
 
Selection

BALTHAZAR KING 6/1 Win Bet

BIG SHU 4/1 Saver Bet

 
****************************************************
****************************************************

   

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Mathematician 1839

2 Account Bets

Cheltenham 2.40

TOUR DES CHAMPS 14/1

Each Way

Three Savers

Standing Ovation 20/1 
Time For Rupert 14/1 
Wrong Turn 14/1 

Staking guidance for every #10 Staked
 
#4 Each Way TOUR DES CHAMPS 14/1
#0.75 Win Time For Rupert 14/1
#0.75 Win Wrong Turn 14/1
#0.50 Win Standing Ovation 20/1

Second Bet

Cheltenham 4.00

FOXROCK 4/1 +

Each Way

Two Bets Today

Cheltenham 2.40
 
Messy staking with an each way bet and 3 savers
but It takes only buttons to save on these 3 horses
and they could be valuable savers when we have
9 Generic Negatives and several no hopers as well.

Cheltenham 4.40

Straight forward staking with Foxrock each way and
unless he falls or makes a howler he should go close.

 

 

Cheltenham Selections

Cheltenham 1.30 – IRVING 7/2 Win Bet
Cheltenham 1.30 – VAUTOUR 4/1 Saver Bet
 
Cheltenham 2.05 – DODGING BULLETS 11/2 Each Way
 
Cheltenham 2.40 – TOUR DES CHAMPS 14/1 Each Way
Cheltenham 2.40 – Standing Ovation 20/1 Saver
Cheltenham 2.40 – Time For Rupert 14/1 Saver
Cheltenham 2.40 – Wrong Turn 14/1 Saver
                             (Staking guidance given below)
 
Cheltenham 3.15 – JEZKI 9/1 Each Way
  
Cheltenham 4.00 – QUEVEGA 10/11 Half Stakes to win
Cheltenham 4.00 – GLENS MELODY 5/2 Half Stakes to Place
 
Cheltenham 4.00 – FOXROCK 9/2 Each Way
 
Cheltenham 5.15 – ATTAGLANCE 14/1 Each Way
Cheltenham 5.15 – ERICHT 10/1 Saver

 

 

T o d a y ‘s   B e t s
 
At the festival most people will be having bets
in every race so the most important thing is to
get as many winners as possible regardless of
how they are staked. If these happen to be on
account bets then all the better but realistically
the choice of bets is so vast that we could easily
have losing account bets and winners elsewhere.
I wouldn’t put anyone off following the message
in every race as the work has been done but it
is likely some account bets will be in the harder
races and are not as likely to win as other bets.

Interested to see how a new fresh approach to
the Supreme Novice Hurdle gets on but IRVING
does not make the grade as an account bet.

DODGING BULLETS could have been a bet with
a neat field but I will let that one go as well. It’s
one of the more likely winners and worth a bet.

I usually have an account bet in the 2.40pm and
it is a race I love. I fancy TOUR DES CHAMPS but
have staked 3 savers (explained below). Its quite
a complicated stake. Huge emotional interest in
whether the 9 Generic Negatives will get beaten.
I think I have staked this really well. It will be a
fascinating race but the staking is messy this year.

Don’t have a strong view in the Champion hurdle
it looks wide open. I have backed JEZKI recently
and that will stand for me as an interest only bet.

No interest in Quevega’s race. I’ve split staked it
as it make sense but I don’t have any strong view.

The 4m Novice Chase is one of my best races all
week. This year I have gone with 6yo FOXROCK
which is unusual. I am doing this as I feel there’s
a fair chance the favourite won’t stay. My honest
view is that he will win if he jumps and if I had a
big danger it would be the fences not opposition.

I fancy ATTAGLANCE strongly but know that there
is a higher than ideal chance any bets could get
lost in this race. Looks the hardest race today but
this is not a token choice to fill a message I think
he has a very good chance at a generous price.

 

Generic Statistics

The following horses Fail my Generic Stats.
I’m opposing them all and hope they all fail.

Cheltenham 2.40 – Pacha Du Polder
Cheltenham 2.40 – Hadrian’s Approach
Cheltenham 2.40 – Holywell
Cheltenham 2.40 – Green Flag
Cheltenham 2.40 – Ma Filleule
Cheltenham 2.40 – Vino Griego
Cheltenham 2.40 – Muldoon’s Picnic
Cheltenham 2.40 – The Package
Cheltenham 2.40 – Alfie Sherrin
 

 

 

P R O F I L E S    &   P R E V I E W S

C h e l t e n h a m  1.30

Sky Bet Supreme Novices4 Hurdle
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m110y

5/2 Irving, 3/1 Vautour, 13/2 Wicklow Brave, 9/1 Vaniteux
12/1 Gilgamboa, 12/1 Josses Hill, 12/1 Valseur Lido
14/1 The Liquidator, 16/1 Splash Of Ginge, 16/1 Western Boy
20/1 Wilde Blue Yonder, 25/1 Garde La Victoire, 25/1 Sgt Reckless
33/1 Three Kingdoms, 33/1 Un Ace, 100/1 Fantasy King
100/1 Germany Calling, 100/1 Sky Khan.

* The Supreme Novice is a Grade 1 hurdle over 2m
* IRVING has divided opinion after 4 wins
* Many argue he lacks stamina and may not like Cheltenham
* Go back to 1998 and look at horses placing 1-2-3 in this
* Only Binocular in 2008 had a Flat race background
* Almost all placed horses had National Hunt beginnings
* IRVING does not have that. This is his Flaw.
* Then again on quicker ground that could change
* IRVING does have advantages as well as I soon explain

* Look at the number of hurdle runs past winners had
* 4 4 4 4 5 2 2 4 4 7 3 4 2 3 2 2 3
* The last 5 winners had at least 4 hurdle runs
* I would rather have a horse with 4 or more hurdle runs
* There are winners that won with just 2 hurdle runs
* Interesting that these were all aged 6 or 7
* Horses aged 5 that had under 3 hurdle runs have struggled
* French Ballerina did it in 1998 but she was different
* She was a mare and had a sex allowance
* She was also a Grade 1 horse on the Flat
* Flown in 1992 was a lightly raced 5yo winner so it can be done
* Recent evidence suggest these horses struggle

* I looked at 5 year old Males with under 3 hurdle runs
* Since 1998 these horses have a 0-45 record
* I would view a 5 year old with 1-2 hurdle runs sceptically
* The last 4 winners aged 5 had 4 4 4 4 Hurdle runs
* The only one that did not before that was a Mare
* I do not want a 5 year old with under 3 hurdle runs
* The following horses have this problem
* WICKLOW BRAVE – VALSEUR LIDO – WESTERN BOY

* WILD BLUE YONDER fell on his last 2 starts
* I looked at Grade 1 Hurdle races at the Festival
* Looked for horses that fell last time out
* Since 1996 all 56 that tried failed
* Hard to bet a horse coming here after 2 hurdle falls
* We know horses from handicaps have a poor record
* SPLASH OF GINGE fails this winning the Betfair hurdle
* He only had 10st 2lbs last time. Unlikely to be good enough.
 
* JOSSES HILL is classy but has just 2 hurdle runs
* As a 6 year old with 2 hurdle runs I can respect him
* The 2007 winner was a 6yo with 2 hurdle runs
* This is a future 2m 4f + chasing sort though
* Not sure he will be slick enough over hurdles at 2m
* I’d have been much happier with more hurdling experience

* VANITEUX is 5 and has 3 hurdle runs
* He is slowly maturing and should run a career best
* Hard to know if that is going to be enough
* As a 5yo with 3 runs he takes on 6 year olds with 4 runs
* VANITEUX also comes from a 2m 4f race
* No recent winner managed that and he is not safe statistically

* VAUTOUR is a 5 year old with 3 hurdle runs
* Count his French form and you can argue he has 5 runs
* VAUTOUR has an acceptable profile and is a big runner
 
* I want to mention 6 year olds with 4 hurdle runs
* Much better than 5 year olds with 2 hurdle runs
* Look at 6yo’s with 4 hurdle runs
* 2013 Champagne Fever beat My Tent or Yours
* Both the 1st and 2nd last year were 6yo’s with 4 hurdle

* IRVING has this profile
* GILGAMBOA has this profile

* IRVING – I share the reservations about the track
* Foolish to say he can’t win given other advantages
* GILGAMBOA comes from a handicap
* Thats not ideal and has not happened recently
* Last years second did it though. The stat will fail soon
* GILGAMBOA as a 6yo with 4 hurdle starts is otherwise ideal
* Very impressive last time in that handicap
* Statistically I should ignore GILGAMBOA
* As a 6yo with 4 hurdle starts I’d keep him on side

Number of Racecourse Appearances

I thought the following was relevant. I want a horse
that has enough experience and conditioning for a
race like this. I looked at the last 21 winners of this.
I counted How many previous races they had before,
This is any kind of race. Flat runs, Bumpers, Hurdles
just how many times they had ran in any kind of race.

* 8 9 8 5 8 9 8 6 21 9 7 7 26 17 13 29 18 10 8 7 15

* 20 of the last 21 winners had ran at least 6 times before
* 21 of the last 21 winners had ran at least 5 times before
* Horses with 1-2-3-4 Racecourse Appearances look wrong

* The following horses are therefore opposed
* These have not had the same level of racecourse experience

* GILGAMBOA – 4 Racecourse Appearances
* JOSSES HILL – 4 Racecourse Appearances
* VALSEUR LIDO – 4 Racecourse Appearances
* VANITEUX – 3 Racecourse Appearances

* THE LIQUIDATOR is ok as a 6yo with 3 runs
* Especially as he has 8 racecourse appearances as well
* It is just a dismal last run that badly hurts him
* Very unusual a winner will have ran so badly last time
* Horses unplaced last time out were 0-130 in recent years
* He is not a very well built horse
* Soft ground at Kempton may not have suited
* Even so do we want a lightly framed horse in this race ?

Hard to judge VAUTOUR as he has only had 3 runs but
include his French form and you can argue he has had
5 runs so I see him very much as a borderline case here.

IRVING has the right number of starts and much as there
is a question mark about the track I would far rather rely
on him and chance that than go for a horse that has less
experience and half the number of hurdle starts.

Little bit frustrated as I feel I have developed some good
angles here yet these point to the shortest priced horses
in the race. I think IRVING or VATOUR will win this. I can
see a case for a win bet and a saver. I prefer IRVING just
on profile but I accept the track’s an issue. We don’t know.

Selection
IRVING 7/2 Win Bet
VAUTOUR 4/1 Saver Bet

Alternative Staking

* You could consider having the saver as a place bet
* Irving to win and Vautour to place (Evens)  is another option
* Vautour each way looks an acceptable bet as well
* Don’t forget the Paddy Power offer in this race
* They’re refunding all losing bets if your 2nd 3rd 4th
* If you can bet with them that surely must be taken

IRVING 7/2 Win Bet

VAUTOUR 4/1 Saver Bet

 

 

C h e l t e n h a m  2.05

Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m

5/2 Champagne Fever, 4/1 Rock On Ruby
5/1 Dodging Bullets, 5/1 Trifolium, 8/1 Grandouet, 8/1 Valdez
16/1 Ted Veale, 33/1 Brick Red, 33/1 Western Warhorse.

* The Arkle is a Grade 1 Chase over 2 Miles
* This year we look to have 6 main runners
* ROCK ON RUBY has positives and negatives
* The biggest positive is his 167 rating
* His main rivals are rated 158 157 156 153 153
* ROCK ON RUBY is rated 9lbs higher than anything
* That is based on his hurdles form though
* ROCK ON RUBY has only had 2 Chase starts
* He is also a 9yo and the last 9yo winner was in 1988
* The last 24 winners were younger than Rock On Ruby
* Go back to 1988 and you find just 3 winners aged 8 +
* These had 4-5-3 Chase runs – all more than he does
* ROCK ON RUBY – I don’t want a 9yo with just 2 chase runs
* VALDEZ is the lowest rated hurdler of the main runners
* 15 of the last 16 winners were rated between 154 and 169
* VALDEZ only has a rating of 153
* If he wins it will be with an unusually low rating
* He is unbeaten though and ratings are not everything
* Not for me though. He isn’t the biggest of horses
* GRANDOUET has 3 Chase runs but is still yet to win one
* This includes defeats at 4/11 and 1/2
* He unseated rider in one and also fell twice over hurdles
* We know only 1 of the last 16 winners had fallen before
* That would worry me in a race that can punish mistakes
* He has so much talent but is only a small horse
* That must contribute to his chequered record
* Could easily win but I don’t want an undersized horse
* Not one that has never yet won a chase and has hurdle falls
* CHAMPAGNE FEVER deserves maximum respect
* If only for the fact he is trained by Willie Mullins
* Crossed my mind he is lightly raced this year
* Only 2 Chase runs and they were his only runs this year
* Several of these have had more runs than that
* CHAMPAGNE FEVER also has a longer absence than most
* I wouldn’t fail him on his absence
* I have read that he is not an easy horse to get fit though
* Hard to know whether to trust that and if so how far to
* His disappointing 3rd last time knocks points off his score
* After all 24 of the last 26 winners were 1st or 2nd last time
* It means he doesn’t have a very strong profile
* Not sure he is a big enough price to interest me
* TRIFOLIUM was impressive in the Irish Arkle
* That earnt him only the 4th best Racing Post Rating
* Probably because his opponents ran below par
* That’s something to bear in mind
* So to is a problem he has had with his wind
* Take away his Irish Arkle win and he looks weaker
* It was heavy ground last time and his main opponents flopped
* His previous form is not good enough
* He is improving and should be competitive
* If you bet him it is on the back of just 1 good run
* Against horses who disappointed as well
* TED VEALE has 3 chase runs and 3 heavy defeats
* I can’t make a good enough case for a shock result

* DODGING BULLETS comes here W W W 2 over fences
* Not keen that he started life as a Miler on the Flat
* The last winner to have run on the flat was 2005
* That winner (Contaband) won in a poor year
* There was a false pace that year as well
* There have been others that started life on the flat though
* Not keen on his Spring festival records either
* His 2 Cheltenham Festival runs were 4th and 9th
* His 2 Aintree Festival runs were 6th and 7th
* His form when we get to Spring is a concern
* That said he has got excuses for some of those runs
* He didn’t stay at Aintree 2013 and broke a blood vessel
* Cheltenham 2013 he was a big negative with a long absence 
* I’m very reluctant to pigeon hole him on limited evidence
* Yes there are concerns but also positives as well
* He is a big strong horse with 3 wins at Cheltenham before
* On Racing Post Ratings he has the 1st and 3rd best numbers

Racing Post Ratings
Chase Ratings over 140

161 Dodging Bullets
159 Valdez
158 Dodging Bullets
158 Trifolium
157 Grandouet
154 Valdez
152 Rock On Ruby
149 Trifolium
147 Trifolium
146 Dodging Bullets
144 Grandouet
142 Champagne Fever
142 Champagne Fever
141 Trifolium

These ratings show that Champagne Fever is some way
behind and his position as favourite is partly down to his
brilliant trainer and festival record. That’s not to say that
he can’t win. The above suggest DODGING BULLETS may
be the bet each way. His poor record in the Spring plays
on my mind a bit as does the fact he is younger than the
other main players. Statistically that shouldn’t matter at
all but what puts me off a bit is that he’s by Dubawi a flat
horse who hasn’t bred a winner at Cheltenham’s festival.
He does look a sensible each way bet given purely on his
chase runs he has the 1st and 3rd best racing post ratings.

Selection

DODGING BULLETS 11/2

Each Way

 

 

C h e l t e n h a m  2.40

Baylis & Harding Affordable Luxury
Handicap Chase Grade 3 (5yo+)  3m110y
 
15/2 Alfie Sherrin, 8/1 Hadrian4s Approach, 8/1 Holywell
12/1 Cantlow, 12/1 Green Flag, 14/1 Wrong Turn, 16/1 Restless Harry
16/1 The Package, 16/1 Time For Rupert, 16/1 Tour Des Champs
16/1 Vintage Star, 20/1 Golden Chieftain, 20/1 Ma Filleule
20/1 Shakalakaboomboom, 20/1 Standing Ovation, 25/1 Ackertac
25/1 Fruity O4rooney, 25/1 King Massini, 25/1 Vino Griego
33/1 Muldoon4s Picnic, 33/1 Pacha Du Polder, 33/1 Relax
33/1 Renard, 40/1 Solix.
 
* This is a 3m Handicap Chase
* I will start with GENERIC Statistic 1
* 7 year olds in every Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chase
* We know those carrying 11st 1lbs or more were 0-73
* PACHA DU POLDER fails this with 11st 9lbs
* HADRIANS APPROACH fails this with 11st 7lbs
* HOLYWELL fails this with 11st 6lbs
* GREEN FLAG fails this with 11st 4lbs

* GENERIC Statistic 2 is about horses aged 5-6-7
* These ages in all handicap chases struggle with absences
* Those absent 50 or more days are just 1-77
* HADRIANS APPROACH fails this aged 7 absent 83 days
* MA FILLEULE fails it as a 6yo absent 74 days

* GENERIC Statistic 3 is about horses From Grade 1-2 races
* None of these carried 11st 3lbs or more
* VINO GRIEGO  falls down on this statistic
* GREEN FLAG also fails this

* GENERIC Statistic 4 is about Novice Handicap Chasers
* None won ordinary handicap chases from Novice Handicaps
* All 21 have lost and none have placed either
* MULDOONS PICNIC fails this statistic

* GENERIC Statistic 5 is about 6 and 7 year olds
* It involves the number of prep runs each horse has
* HADRIANS APPROACH could be questioned on this statistic
* He has 3 runs this year but he fell early in one of those
* I think this statistic just hints he has something to prove
 
* GENERIC Statistic 6 is about horses absent 80 + days
* It shows what backclass these horses need if well raced
* THE PACKAGE also fails this angle
* ALFIE SHERRIN also fails this statistic
 
* GENERIC Statistic 7 is about horses aged 11 or more
* It shows how these have never won absent a month
* The following horses fails this statistic
* THE PACKAGE – ALFIE SHERRIN

I have 9 of the 24 runners failing one or more of my
Generic Statistic. I just want to double check to see
if I am making any mistakes in ignoring these nine.

* MA FILLEULE is as 6 year old
* Horses aged 6 have struggled in this race
* They won it in 1956 1972 and 1994 since the first race in 1946
* The 1994 winner was 6 but that was a small field of 11 runners
* I’d be very wary about betting a 6 year old
* ALFIE SHERRIN is 11 and clearly underraced this season
* THE PACKAGE has to go as an 11yo debutant
* PACHA DU POLDER is clearly underraced with a big weight
* HADRIAN4S APPROACH – If he wins then he wins
* He does however fail 2 Generic Stats and possibly 3
* MULDOON4S PICNIC – No novice handicapper has won
* I couldn’t bet him with an absence
* VINO GRIEGO has a big weight and comes here PU PU
* GREEN FLAG fails 2 Generic Statistics but only just
* He was unlucky unseating rider last time
* He’s been a credit to connections but isn’t safe enough
* He has more weight than any 7yo winners
* He has never raced at Cheltenham before either
* GREEN FLAG – Might be a mistake but opposing him
* HOLYWELL won’t find 11st 6lbs easy as a 7 year old
* We know no 7yo won any handicap chase with 11st 1lbs +
* This horse has made mistakes and isn’t a safe jumper
* He is a small horse which could be part of the problem
* I’d avoid unsafe jumpers and small horses here
* As he also fails a Generic Statistic he has to go
 
* CANTLOW passes all my Generic statistics
* He does have statistical problems elsewhere
* Much of this is to do with his weight of 11st 12lbs
* Horses that had 11st 6lbs or more had a 1-43 record
* 18 of the last 20 winners had no more than 11st 2lbs
* The only 9yo winners were lightweights
* All winners since the early 1980’s were rated 149 or less
* CANTLOW has to defy a mark of 151 here
* He has a big weight and a very tough absence
* CANTLOW looks unsafe to me
* RESTLESS HARRY is a high class horse in good form
* Bothers me he is 0-12 when racing in fields of 12 or more
* Not overkeen he is an exposed horse but these do win
* He has a bit too much weight for comfort
* He is like the past high weighted winners though
* They were exposed with Grade 1 form and recent runs
* I like his chance more than I should though
* He has tried 3m at Cheltenham 9 times before
* He’s never looked like winning and may not stay this far here
* GOLDEN CHIEFTAIN won this race last year
* He had 7 prep runs last year and a low weight
* This year 1 prep run and a big weight so he is out
* SOLIX looks outclassed
* SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM hasn’t had enough runs this season
* RENARD – Track and Distance worry me
* RELAX hasn’t had the best preparation and looks unsafe here

* ACKERTAC wouldn’t me my first choice
* Not  keen on 17 Chase runs with 9 weeks absence
* His trainer has a 0-106 record with his Cheltenham runners

* Every past winner has ran in at least Listed Class before
* KING MASSINI has never been in a Class 2 race before
* He is inexperienced and without backclass is rejected

* FRUITY O4ROONEY is 11 which is  older than ideal
* Almost all his winning form comes on sharp tracks
* Not keen he comes from only a Veterans Chase
* FRUITY O4ROONEY was 5th and 2nd in the last 2 renewals
* More exposed now and no more than an outside chance

Possibles

* VINTAGE STAR has bits I quite like
* I like 9 Chase runs for starts
* Past winners had 14-6-5-9-3-6-17-9-7-5-9-11-10-10 Chase runs
* We don’t know if he will appreciate this track
* Jumped badly on his only run here but it was a Grade 1 race
* Not proven himself in a big field either

* TIME FOR RUPERT is now a 10 year old
* He has had some injury problems in the last 2 seasons
* He has 3 runs this year and the last was a reasonable run
* He has some serious Cheltenham Festival form
* Not keen he comes from a Veterans Chase
* Not sure if this ground may be too quick
* I would respect and shortlist him

*  WRONG TURN is a lightly raced Irish raider
* Hard to read and we have to guess his ability
* No track form and has fallen twice in his last 4 runs
* Stamina Unproven but you wouldn’t rule him out

* STANDING OVATION has an excellent period last Autumn
* He was rested over the winter until 17 days ago
* He was bound to have needed the run
* It was on ground softer than ideal for him
* STANDING OVATION is a very well treated horse
* What I don’t like is his record left handed
* He has far better form going right handed at the moment
* Much of that was before he started to improve
* It may not be as important as it looks
* Not sure I want a 7yo with just 1 run in over 3 months either
* That said he could easily win from his current mark

* TOUR DES CHAMPS was 8th in this race last year
* Beaten 25 lengths he has to improve a lot
* That said he was a 6yo last year and a negative
* It was a huge ask last year for a younger 6 year old
* He was racing off a handicap mark of 139 last year
* This year he is 10lbs lower and a much better age
* Kelami (2005) won this aged 7 having lost in this race aged 6
* TOUR DES CHAMPS is 0-15 in Class 2 or higher
* That’s a misleading statistic for a number of reasons
* He did place in a Graded Chase at Kempton last time
* I’d give him a great chance on his last run
* I like his light weight and if everything clicks he could win
 

Selection

TOUR DES CHAMPS 16/1 Each Way

STANDING OVATION 20/1 Saver
TIME FOR RUPERT 14/1 Saver
WRONG TURN 14/1 Saver

Staking Guidance to #10

TOUR DES CHAMPS 16/1 #4 Each Way

STANDING OVATION 20/1 #0.50 Win

TIME FOR RUPERT 14/1  #0.75 Win

WRONG TURN 14/1 #0.75 Win

 

 

C h e l t e n h a m  3.15

Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m110y

5/2 Hurricane Fly, 11/4 The New One, 4/1 My Tent Or Yours
4/1 Our Conor, 8/1 Jezki, 20/1 Melodic Rendezvous, 40/1 Ptit Zig
100/1 Grumeti, 200/1 Captain Cee Bee.

* The Champion Hurdle is a Grade 1 over 2 miles
* GRUMETI and CAPTAIN CEE BEE are outclassed
* MELODIC RENDEZVOUS – Not for me on this ground
* OUR CONNOR is a 5 year old and we know these struggle
* You can argue he looks top class on his Triumph form
* My issue with him is simple
* He is a bad age and has just 2 hurdle runs this season
* Several horses have more and are better ages
* It’s all right saying Katchit won as a 5 year old
* He had twice as many recent runs and won a weak renewal
* OUR CONNOR can’t be ruled out in a small field
* I just feel his age and lack of runs detract from his chance
* PTIT ZIG is also a 5 year old
* I don’t see enough positives to overlook his age
* HURRICANE FLY is a 10 year old
* Sea Pigeon in 1981 was the last horse aged over 9 to win
* He won last year but it did look a weaker race
* Win Lose or Draw Statistically we should oppose him 
* MY TENT OR YOURS has had a recent injury scare
* He’s won the Fighting Fifth and Christmas Hurdle
* Not many win both and then this race
* Not peaking 3 times in a season although Kribensis did it
* Sure to go well and every chance
* THE NEW ONE must have a decent chance
* Beaten last time out knocks points off his score
* Neptune winners like him have won this race
* All his Cheltenham wins have come on the New course though
* The issue for me is whether he may just want a bit further
* JEZKI can obviously be questioned on recent defeats
* His price compensates for many of these concerns
* Barry Geraghty rides and he is W W W W on the horse
* This race could easily be won by tactics or pace
* I have always liked his chance at a sporting bet

Conclusion

JEZKI 9/1 Each Way

My angles won’t sort this. The market is settled and
the race has just been a delightful puzzle for quite
a while. I don’t feel my view is likely to be any more
insightful than anyone else’s. It is down to hunches
and what you want to happen really. Several could
be considered placed only. You should follow your
own opinion here. I’m taking a chance of JEZKI e/w.

 

 

C h e l t e n h a m  4.00

OLBG Mares4 Hurdle
(Registered As The David Nicholson Mares4 Hurdle Race)
Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f

4/6 Quevega, 8/1 Cockney Sparrow, 8/1 Sirene D4ainay
10/1 Glens Melody, 12/1 Down Ace, 14/1 Cailin Annamh
14/1 Highland Retreat, 20/1 Doyly Carte, 25/1 Jennies Jewel
25/1 L4unique, 50/1 Hidden Identity, 50/1 Top Totti, 50/1 Uddy
66/1 Little King Robin, 66/1 Pass The Time, 200/1 Epee Celeste.

Hard to know what to do here with QUEVEGA trying
to win for the 6th time. She is a 10yo mare and that
is such an obscene prospect she will probably win.
I tried to oppose her two years ago as an 8 year old.
Last year I made a token effort without the favourite.

That could be the strategy here. Some horses are
immune to statistics and she could be one. I do not
want to bet her but I’m open minded she may win.
 
* HIGHLAND RETREAT – All 10 runs are on right handed tracks
* She’s progressive but the track must be a worry
* DOWN ACE has only had 3 hurdle runs
* She has to come up in distance as well
* I don’t feel she has the numbers to win
* COCKNEY SPARROW fell last time out
* Never a good preparation in a race like this
* Not keen on a 5 year old coming up in distance
* She has never raced beyond 17f yet
* Her Sire who was a miler hasn’t yet bred a 2m 3f + winner
* CAILIN ANNAMH has a difficult 145 day absence
* GLENS MELODY – I like her profile and numbers
* The main worry is whether the ground is too quick
* SIRENE D4AINAY – French raider second last year

Alternatives to Quevega

There is the Place Market and Without The Favourite
markets as well. I wanted to try and isolate the Main
danger to the favourite. I made some notes earlier on
and I also wanted to look at Racing Post Ratings too.

Racing Post Ratings
Run over 19f 20f 21f
Hurdles only
 
143 Glens Melody
143 Sirene D’Ainay
143 Sirene D’Ainay
143 Glens Melody
140 Glens Melody
139 Glens Melody
139 Glens Melody
137 Cailin Annamh
136 Sirene D’Ainay
132 Cailin Annamh
125 Glens Melody
122 Cailin Annamh
120 HIghland Retreat
 
This tells me GLENS MELODY and SIRENE D4AINAY
could be the biggest threats to the favourite. There
is the option of betting these without the favourite.

I think the bet is a split stake bet

Selection

Cheltenham 4.00 – QUEVEGA 10/11 Half Stakes to win

Cheltenham 4.00 – GLENS MELODY 5/2 Half Stakes to Place
 

 

 

C h e l t e n h a m  4.40

Terry Biddlecombe National Hunt Chase
Amateur Riders4 Novices4 Chase (Listed Race) 4m
 
11/4 Foxrock, 3/1 Shutthefrontdoor, 5/1 Shotgun Paddy
8/1 Midnight Prayer, 8/1 Suntiep, 12/1 Rogue Angel, 16/1 Beeves
20/1 Herdsman, 25/1 According To Trev, 25/1 Living Next Door
25/1 Merlin4s Wish, 25/1 Milborough, 33/1 Firm Order
66/1 Adrenalin Flight, 66/1 American Spin.

* This is a 4m Novice Chase for Amateurs
* Quite a manageable field this year
* ADRENALIN FLIGHT can’t win at the weights. Doubtful stayer.
* AMERICAN SPIN – Badly weighted. Out of form. Doubtful stayer
* FIRM ORDER is another that is badly weighted
* Worries me 26 National Hunt runs and no Pattern form
* 17 of the last 20 winners had form in Class 2 or better
* Those without Class 2 form and 13 + runs were 0-34
* FIRM ORDER  fails that and is rejected
* The last 21 winners had the following runs that season
* 4-5-9-4-5-5-4-4-4-5-8-5-6-2-7-7-6-5-10-4-4
* Only 1 of the last 21 winners had under 4 runs that year
* I would prefer at least 4 runs that season
* SUNTIEP has only had 2 runs this year
* He’s only had 2 Chase runs before as well
* The Past 24 winners had the following number of Chases
* 5 9 11 3 3 7 4 4 4 4 12 5 1 4 15 9 13 6 10 4 3 3 8
* SUNTIEP with 2 runs looks inexperienced to me

* SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR has been well backed recently
* Jonjo and JP McManus and many are joining in a gamble
* I have some problems with this horse
* First of all you ideally want 4 or more runs this season
* SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR has only had 3 runs
* I could be prepared to overlook that
* He’s absent 87 days and it’s the longest absence in the race
* Asking a lot of him to mix that with few runs this year
* It’s not as of he is a guaranteed stayer
* SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR is sired by Accordion
* This sire’s runners over 3m 6f and more are 0-42
* I have big problems with this horses stamina
* A poor last run doesn’t do much for the confidence either
* Good prospect. Could be a future Gold Cup horse
* Not bred for 4m though. Long absence. Short of runs
* SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR – I am opposing him

* We know Horses by Accordion are 0-42 at 3m 6f or more
* ACCORDING TO TREV is also out of Accordion
* His official rating is lower than ideal
* He comes here F and PU and not for me
* LIVING NEXT DOOR – Failed to complete on last 2 chase runs
* Far from certain to stay as well
* Looks an average handicap badly treated at weights
* MERLIN4S WISH also looks an average handicapper
* Doesn’t look right as a lightly raced 9 year old
* I don’t think he has the class
* MILBOROUGH may lack the class
* He has 3 Chase runs but fell in one of those
* I’d have liked another run and his trainer is awful at Cheltenham
* HERDSMAN is another from an average handicap
* His owner demands respect here but he needs improvement
* The ground could quicker than ideal for him
* BEEVES is average but should stay
* He may not have the guts and is light on backclass
* What bothers me most is he is undersized
* I don’t want a smaller horse with no Cheltenham form
* ROGUE ANGEL was hammered last time
* Not the ideal preparation for a 6 year old
* Won’t be a total shock if he wins
* His profile is wrong and Foxrock has just thrashed him
* MIDNIGHT PRAYER has a reasonable profile
* I’m not keen on his lack of backclass though
* He’s never been in a class 2 race before
* Not convinced he has the class to take this
 

Shortlist

* SHOTGUN PADDY comes from a Handicap Chase
* There are some past winners that managed that
* Those like him from handicaps over 3m 4f + were 0-25
* I can overlook that given a reasonable profile otherwise
* His profile is certainly shortlistable
* It’s not a perfect match though and not keen on the stable

* FOXROCK is a 6 year old
* He comes out 3rd best at the weights
* In recent years 6yo’s have a disappointing 1-51 record
* Many were massive prices and not fancied
* Many more have finished 2nd and 3rd in the race
* This is also a weak renewal and fewer runners than normal
* These are FOXROCK’s 5 Chase racing post ratings
* 146 146 143 134 134
* That would be good enough in many past renewals
* The last 3 winners all achieved ratings of at least 153
* I liked him last time. Showed a turn of foot
* Laid out for the race though and could be special

Selection

FOXROCK 5/1

Win Bet

 

 

C h e l t e n h a m  5.15

Rewards4Racing Novices4 Handicap Chase
(Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+ 0-140) 2m4f110y

6/1 Pendra, 8/1 Manyriverstocross, 8/1 Present View
10/1 Ericht, 11/1 Persian Snow, 12/1 Art Of Logistics
14/1 Baby Mix, 14/1 Buthelezi, 14/1 Buywise, 14/1 Close House
16/1 Attaglance, 16/1 Festive Affair, 16/1 Ohio Gold
20/1 Ahyaknowyerself, 20/1 Dursey Sound, 20/1 King Vuvuzela
20/1 Tony Star, 20/1 Up To Something, 25/1 Gardefort
33/1 Grandads Horse.

* This is a Novice Handicap Chase over 2m4f110y
* There are 9 past renewals of this race
* These were the age results

* Horses aged 5 are 1-15
* Horses aged 6 are 1-31
* Horses aged 7 are 6-73
* Horses aged 8 are 1-37
* Horses aged 9 + are 0-20

* The 9 winners had 5 9 4 3 3 4 6 3 5 Chase starts
* The 9 winners had 4 7 5 3 3 4 6 3 5 runs this season
* The 9 winners all ran within 60 days

The previous two renewals of this race were radically
different from the other 7 past renewals. The race has
changed shape a bit and personally I would not trust
any angles here.

* PENDRA is absent 80 days longer than all 9 winners
* The 1st 2nd 3rd in every renewal all had more recent runs
* He flopped at last years festival with a difficult absence
* I’d worry about the ground and a big field
* I just don’t feel he offers me enough
* TONY STAR has to go absent 143 days
* KING VUVUZELA looks too exposed
* BABY MIX – Don’t want him with a big weight
* Not a natural chaser. A lightly framed horse
* In a big field he may well get found out
* MANYRIVERSTOCROSS is a 9yo
* He would be the oldest winner of this race
* I don’t like that he had a Flat career
* He’s had injury problems. Stress Fracture. Bad Legs
* I don’t fancy him as a 9 year old
* PRESENT VIEW won a handicap over 2m 5f recently
* It was the same handicap Hunt Ball won before winning this
* Worries me he has a lot of form on shaper tracks
* Worries me he has shown his hand to the handicapper too
* As a 6 year old from a small stable he isn’t first choice
* The longest absence from the track was 60 days
* BUTHELEZI is 6 and absent 99 days
* Not completely genuine he isn’t my choice
* ART OF LOGISTICS is absent 75 days
* That’s longer than every past winner
* He looks a strong traveller that likes fast ground
* Lots to like but his absence isn’t the only challenge he has
* No 6yo has won this coming up in distance
* FESTIVE AFFAIR has the same problem
* He is 6 and up in trip and McCoy has rejected him
* PERSIAN SNOW doesn’t offer enough
* CLOSE HOUSE – His track form looks very untidy
* I wouldn’t trust him and he comes from a 2m race
* BUYWISE has just won 3 races on sharp tracks
* He’s won off 102 109 and 120
* I don’t want him off 134 at Cheltenham
* OHIO GOLD was 3rd in last years race
* He’s a bit exposed and others may improve past him
* He hasn’t seemed to progress from last year

Shortlist

* ERICHT has topweight but that’s not an issue
* He has 2 good festival runs over hurdles and bumpers
* He looks a progressive smart horse with a serious chance
* The ground will suit him and he is one of the more likely winners
 
* ATTAGLANCE is a bit exposed but has big claims
* He was 4th in the Paddy Power Gold Cup off the same mark
* If he can do that he can win this
* He likes a big field and is a Festival winner over hurdles
* I don’t think he stayed 3 miles last time over hurdles
* His form and breeding raise doubts he can stay 3m
* He had topweight over a distance too far
* I give him a very good chance here
* He will love the drying ground as well
 

Selection

ATTAGLANCE 14/1 Each Way

ERICHT 10/1 Saver

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