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10 Horses of Interest
Guy introduced a new element to the full member
messages this week.
I guess it is a little bit like a Horses To Follow Style
list based loosely around horses who ran ok from a pretty bad draw.
The core premise of it is that such horses can do better in
future races run on a more level playing field that perhaps as basic assessmentof their poor draw finishing position may lead on to believe.
There is of course a degree of appreciation for such stuff in betting
markets.
As such it can help to look at draw bias in a slightly different
stance than is commonly reported to the crowds.
He said to full members:
Draw Statistics are a major part of my daily message.
I don’t know anyone who looks at Draw biases in the
same way as I do and I think it works. It is impossible
to get the Draw right all the time but I think we do it
very well and often find the draw matters in races at
distances and tracks that most people do not realise.
I decided to come up with this list of horses to follow.
I have chosen them purely on the following criteria.
* I can illustrate they had a very bad draw last time
* I watched their last run on video and felt positive
He then went on to list ten horses he had noted
as worth adding to this list.
Below is one of his notes.
PROCLAMATIONOFWAR
* Ran well from Stall 15 at Beverley last time
* Since 2013 there have been 118 Beverley handicaps
* Thats 118 Beverley races at any and every distance
* No horse has won from 13 or higher at Beverley 2013-14
* That is over any distance and not just over 5f
* He was badly disadvantaged from Stall 15 in this race
With Horse To Follow lists I guess there may
be two main style of punter approach.
Those prone to seek mechanical methods
that require little thought may be more likely to
do something like bet each horse for the next X runnings
or until it wins.
Others will treat it just as a reminder of a horse
worthy of scrutiny and consideration in a future race.
Guy I guess would fall into that second camp.
He is not going to Account Bet something
just because it ran ok from a poor draw last time
and act blind to other key factors of form, other runners
and with zero consideration to the concept of value odds.
As it happens Proclamationofwar is running this evening (
Friday )
It is the first of his Ten Horse list to have a live run.
He covered the race in his Profiles and Previews section.
Profiles and Previews I guess you can consider as extra analysis
and viewpoint for races he examines while looking for firmer strong advices
for either his Optional Account of Full Account tips.
It is not uncommon for him to research and write five or six
several races daily yet find not one horse worth a proper bet.
His is a totally different thought train to the average
mug punter who more so says..”I am going to bet in this race..which horse will it be?”
I have copied that Profile & Preview piece below for
you
Musselburgh 8.40
Racing Posts Odds
6/4 Twin Appeal, 7/2 Beautiful Stranger, 6/1 Cahal
10/1 China In My Hands, 10/1 Miss Acclaimed, 10/1 Mitcd
10/1 Proclamationofwar, Torridon, 20/1 Lomond Lassie
33/1 Connexion Francais.
I sent a list recently of “10 horses of interest”
that had
recently run well from bad draws. The first of these is
running in this race. PROCLAMATIONOFWAR is on the
list so I need to mention him. He has been gambled.
Statistically he is quite weak though. I liked his race
over 5f at Beverley but he moves up to 7f today. In all
similar races Male horses going from 5f to 7f are 0-40
in similar races and I don’t like his profile. I will leave
it up to you but I couldn’t select him. Perhaps the split
stake is best with TWIN APPEAL having a good profile.
* Horses coming from 7f handicaps
* Running within 3 weeks
* 4 career starts
* 2 runs this season
* Starting under 10/1
* Beaten last time
* 4 horses had this profile finishing 2 W 4 W
* TWIN APPEAL has this profile
I don’t really want to bet TWIN APPEAL at the price
PROCLAMATIONOFWAR my draw horse is unsafe statistically
Maybe the compromise is a split stake bet
PROCLAMATIONOFWAR to place 11/0
TWIN APPEAL to win 6/4
Anyhow I just wanted let you know about this new angle on
the full service.
You may see future reference to it in Saturday Day Pass messages.
It could perhaps be notes on a new horse added to the list
or info about a past addition running that day.
If so at least now you have a fair idea of what it is all
about.
Best Wishes
Mick
Site Admin
www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk
NB If you want in for Guy’s Saturday Analysis here is the
link
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass
Note the 12 noon cut off point.
( this pos was originally sent by email friday evening )
Posted under horse racing tips
This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on May 24, 2014