Horses To Follow

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10 Horses of Interest

Guy introduced a new element to the full member

messages this week.

I guess it is a little bit like a Horses To Follow Style
list based loosely around horses who ran ok from a pretty bad draw.

The core premise of it is that such horses can do better in
future races run on a more level playing field that perhaps as basic assessmentof their poor draw finishing position may lead on to believe.

There is of course a degree of appreciation for such stuff in betting
markets.

As such it can help to look at draw bias in a slightly different
stance than is commonly reported to the crowds.

He said to full members:

Draw Statistics are a major part of my daily message.

I don’t know anyone who looks at Draw biases in the

same way as I do and I think it works. It is impossible

to get the Draw right all the time but I think we do it

very well and often find the draw matters in races at

distances and tracks that most people do not realise.

I decided to come up with this list of horses to follow.

I have chosen them purely on the following criteria.

* I can illustrate they had a very bad draw last time

* I watched their last run on video and felt positive

 

He then went on to list ten horses he had noted

as worth adding to this list.

Below is one of his notes.

 

PROCLAMATIONOFWAR

* Ran well from Stall 15 at Beverley last time

* Since 2013 there have been 118 Beverley handicaps

* Thats 118 Beverley races at any and every distance

* No horse has won from 13 or higher at Beverley 2013-14

* That is over any distance and not just over 5f

* He was badly disadvantaged from Stall 15 in this race

 

With Horse To Follow lists I guess there may

be two main style of punter approach.

Those prone to seek mechanical methods

that require little thought may be more likely to

do something like bet each horse for the next X runnings

or until it wins.

Others will treat it just as a reminder of a horse

worthy of scrutiny and consideration in a future race.

Guy I guess would fall into that second camp.

He is not going to Account Bet something

just because it ran ok from a poor draw last time

and act blind to other key factors of form, other runners

and with zero consideration to the concept of value odds.

As it happens Proclamationofwar is running this evening (
Friday )

It is the first of his Ten Horse list to have a live run.

He covered the race in his Profiles and Previews section.

Profiles and Previews I guess you can consider as extra analysis
and viewpoint for races he examines while looking for firmer strong advices
for either his Optional Account of Full Account tips.

It is not uncommon for him to research and write five or six
several races daily yet find not one horse worth a proper bet.

His is a totally different thought train to the average
mug punter who more so says..”I am going to bet in this race..which horse will it be?”

I have copied that Profile & Preview piece below for
you

 

Musselburgh 8.40

Racing Posts Odds

6/4 Twin Appeal, 7/2 Beautiful Stranger, 6/1 Cahal

10/1 China In My Hands, 10/1 Miss Acclaimed, 10/1 Mitcd

10/1 Proclamationofwar, Torridon, 20/1 Lomond Lassie

33/1 Connexion Francais.

I sent a list recently of “10 horses of interest”
that had

recently run well from bad draws. The first of these is

running in this race. PROCLAMATIONOFWAR is on the

list so I need to mention him. He has been gambled.

Statistically he is quite weak though. I liked his race

over 5f at Beverley but he moves up to 7f today. In all

similar races Male horses going from 5f to 7f are 0-40

in similar races and I don’t like his profile. I will leave

it up to you but I couldn’t select him. Perhaps the split

stake is best with TWIN APPEAL having a good profile.

* Horses coming from 7f handicaps

* Running within 3 weeks

* 4 career starts

* 2 runs this season

* Starting under 10/1

* Beaten last time

* 4 horses had this profile finishing 2 W 4 W

* TWIN APPEAL has this profile

I don’t really want to bet TWIN APPEAL at the price

PROCLAMATIONOFWAR my draw horse is unsafe statistically

Maybe the compromise is a split stake bet

PROCLAMATIONOFWAR to place 11/0

TWIN APPEAL to win 6/4

 

Anyhow I just wanted let you know about this new angle on
the full service.

You may see future reference to it in Saturday Day Pass messages.

It could perhaps be notes on a new horse added to the list
or info about a past addition running that day.

If so at least now you have a fair idea of what it is all
about.

Best Wishes

Mick

Site Admin

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

 

NB If you want in for Guy’s Saturday Analysis here is the
link

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass

Note the 12 noon cut off point.

( this pos was originally sent by email friday evening )

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on May 24, 2014

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Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on May 16, 2014

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