Injured Jockeys Charity Bet

Injured Jockey Fund Charity Bet

As I mentioned on our free newsletter yesterday
I am making use of b etfairs all customers invited
free bet offer today with winnings if any to be donated
to the Injured Jockey Fund.

The constraints I have to work with here are
- It must be at Ascot or Haydock
- It needs to be SP 3/1 or better.
( this bit is of course impossible to assess with 100% accuracy before the off )
- I am also seeking to use one of the races Guy has covered in his Saturday Message
- I promised a 1pm post time so I can’t select early races

This Saturday he has an Account Bet at Huntingdon
The two from his “Selections” category are at LingField.

ie his three strongest advices for today do not fit the “must be Ascot or Haydock” criteria.

He actually said to members

“Plenty of rain about and it’s soft
if not heavy at three National Hunt meetings.

I’ve made Lingfield the spine of the message
as there will be no significant changes there
and we know what we’re getting. I’ve dipped
into the National Hunt races I liked but there
are many big field handicaps on bad ground
at Ascot and Haydock and I’m dropping a few
of them this year if these look far too difficult.”

So we are into the Profile and Preview section of his message.
This section you can picture as a write up of research and analysis
he has done while seeking good value.

It is very possible for him to work a few hours on a race and
end up with no apparent stand out value that would merit elevation
of the advice to one of the stronger bet categories.

In Profiles and Previews today he has analysed 12 races.
Some in greater detail than others and as for reasons cited above
not too many at Ascot or Haydock.
Bearing in mind the race time criteria above I am left with only one race really that I can possibly select for our charity bet and it is one he has only done a very short write up on.

 

The 3pm Betfair Chase at Haydock

Guy says

“Considering the Betfair Chase is one of the best
early season races it is surprisingly very low on
my priority list. I don’t the race or the track or my
angles in this race and never have done. Its only
a very tokenistic view so if you fancy something
don’t let me put you off. I looked at the horses in
this race that had a chance that had proven form
over 3m 1f in Soft or Heavy ground in Grade One
Class there is only CUE CARD that has achieved
that. He’s Top on Racing Post Ratings and comes
out second on Official Ratings. Having won this
race last year he seems a reasonable e/w option.

Selection

CUE CARD 4/1

Each Way”

So Cue Card it is then for our charity bet under the b etfair offer
I have bet £25 on the nose at 4/1 and it may pay out
more under best odds guarantee if SP is greater.
Winnings if any will be sent to the Injured Jockeys Fund.
If it does win then any bonus free bet from them will
also be bet on behalf of the IJF ( on another day ) and I will post up here
in advance of the off if so.

Here’s hoping lady luck smiles on us.

A good start to the day so far for full members as I type.
The 11.50 race Guy got right.

The same with the 12.10
Same with the 12.20

So 3 out of 3 so far today.

Best wishes
Mick
Site Admin

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on November 22, 2014

Paddy Power Gold Cup

The Paddy Power Gold Cup

This is the headline race today and judging by my inbox the one most casual punters are interested in.

I thought I would stick up my thoughts on it here on the blog.
This comes from the Profile and Previews section of my larger full member message. There are other races I feel offer better value today but here is my tuppence worth on the big race.

Cheltenham 2.30

The Paddy Power Gold Cup is a 2m 5f Graded Chase

This is a massive early season race but it does
not smell like a traditional renewal. Maybe that
is down to the two market leaders from smaller
stables. I have good angles I do want to follow.

* Horses don’t win this rated 135 or lower
* KING MASSINI fails this angles
* Not sure he has the class to win
* His Rating suggests not so he isn’t for me
* The last winner aged 10 or more was back in 1975
* None have placed since as far back as 1993
* ORPHEUS VALLEY fails this and other angles
* CEDRE BLEU hasn’t done enough after 14 Chase runs
* Horses aged 5 have a 1-20 record since 1997
* That was Cyfor Malta (1998) a seasonal debutant
* He had 4 Chase runs in England and 3 more in France
* He was the only 5yo winner since as far back as 1960
* CAID DU BERLAIS is the only 5yo today
* He only has 3 previous Chase runs – too few for me
* The recent winners had the following chase runs
* 9 5 8 7 6 3 9 5 6 5 12 15 10 5 27 7
* The horse with 3 career runs was a Gold Cup winner
* CAID DU BERLAIS looks short of what I want
* CANTLOW – I don’t want a 9yo with a miserable last run
* EDGARDO SOL is 7 and has run this year
* Both 7yo winners doing that won last time
* EDGARDO SOL didn’t but ran well in second
* I feel he has plenty of weight with 11st 4lbs
* Especially when never run over fences here before
* A Lack of Cheltenham Chase form worries me
* Especially when so proven on flatter tracks
* He is only a small horse and may not get home
* CHAMPION COURT has 20 Chase runs
* The last 9 winners had run in less than 10 chases
* 9 of the last 11 winners had run in less than 10 chases
* I’d prefer a horse with 5-15 Chase runs ideally 5-12 runs
* Not convinced about him after a poor seasonal debut
* I don’t think a big field helps him
* I looked at CHAMPION COURT’s sire
* 2m 4f or more – Listed/Graded race – Soft of Heavy
* So far his sires runners are 0-16 under these conditions
* On the plus side he does seem very well handicapped
* EASTLAKE – 20 Chase runs is far from ideal
* He is not like any 8yo that has won this
* OSCAR WHISky is a 9 year old
* Clearly very talented but flawed
* I just see him being caught out in such a race
* Big field and fast pace will surely put him under pressure
* He is the Class horse and has a Wind Operation
* Has the ability but like many I expect him to fail
* JOHNS SPIRIT won this last year
* He had 10st 2lbs and a mark of 139
* This year 11st 10lbs and a mark of 156
* 15 of the last 16 winners were rated between 136 and 150
* Clearly a significantly harder task on paper rated 156
* He has a earnt his weight though to be fair
* His last run was a career best Racing Post Rating
* The weight may beat him but he won’t be far away
* Previous 6 year old winners were rated 136 138 139 139
* No 6yo won with 11st 3lbs or more since 1960
* KAPGA DE CERISY is 6 and rated 148
* No 6yo has won rated within 9lbs of that
* He has more weight than all 6yo winners too
* SHANPALLAS is a 6 year old rated 147
* No 6yo has won rated within 9lbs of that
* He won the Munster National last time
* Doesn’t strike me as the best trial for this
* Never won on ground softer than good
* PRESENT VIEW does not have any Graded form
* The vast majority of past winners had that
* That is a big worry but it is eased by last years winner
* He was also 6 and also lacked Graded Class
* He only had 10st 2lbs though
* PRESENT VIEW has a higher weight and mark
* Past 6 year old winners were rated 136 138 139 139
* PRESENT VIEW has to defy a mark of 144 in this race
* He also comes from a Hurdle race and no past winner has
* His Racing Post Ratings are pretty average as well
* Look at Past winners Career best Chase Racing Post Rating
* 141 163 154 156 146 138 152 148 166 144 158 158 169 155
* PRESENT VIEW has achieved a 146
* 10 of the last 14 winners had bettered that
* I don’t see a good enough case to select him

P o s s i b l e s

* ERICHT is 8 and has run twice this season
* He’s surely done enough to argue the track is ok
* He has a 141 Racing Post Rating at Cheltenham
* Thats as good or better as 4 of the last 13 winners had
* The other 9 had higher numbers but he has a chance

* BUYWISE is 7 and won this season
* I don’t have a big statistical problem with him
* You can argue no past winners came from a hurdle
* He has now crucially proven he handles Cheltenham
* The fences though do take some jumping
* He has made several mistakes in 2 races there so far
* This is a much better race off a 12lbs higher mark
* They will go a lot faster than the race he won in April
* Could win but could easily fail on his jumping

* EASTER METEOR is an 8yo seasonal debutant
* Seasonal debutants aged 8 have struggled
* The last 8yo to win first time out was before 1988
* In the last 16 renewals they were 0-31
* None winning makes him unsafe
* With 13 Chase runs he has more than any 8yo winner
* That said he ran a great race in last years race
* He fell 2 fences out when in the lead
* EASTER METEOR has also changed stables
* He has upgraded to the Pipes
* There could be any amount of improvement
* I fancy him more than I should do on his profile
* Statistically though he should not be the choice

* PERSIAN SNOW is 8 as were 3 recent winners
* All 3 winners aged 8 ran within 2 weeks
* His 28 day absence doesn’t worry me much
* He comes here after a career best R.P.Rating
* That rating was better than 3 of the last 14 winners
* In a bad year with a bit of luck he could win
* I think he has to be considered here

* INDIAN CASTLE is a 6yo seasonal debutant
* He was favourite for the Kim Muir at Cheltenham
* He failed my Generic Stats in that race
* There were 2 recent 6yo’s winning first time out
* They had 5 5 Chase runs and a light weight
* INDIAN CASTLE has 4 Chase runs and 10st 8lbs
* I can live with that profile but he has another problem
* INDIAN CASTLE has no Graded form which is a worry
* That’s easier to overlook as he is lightly raced

Selection

INDIAN CASTLE 10/1 Win Bet

PERSIAN SNOW 14/1 Saver Bet

EASTER METEOR 12/1 Saver Bet

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on November 15, 2014

Tags: ,