Galway Festival Misdirection

The piece below is a short extract from Guy’s full member message for clients of www.mathematician-betting.co.uk from earlier in the week.

I thought it interesting comment so I have popped it up here.

I guess if seeking educational points from it they may include:

#1 – Don’t implicity tust racing media articles.  Journalists are humans with flaws. They are often paid by the word and not by how much you win following their lead. They can take short cuts and often don’t dig deep enough into the facts that matter to punters who want to find edge.

#2 – Poorly thought out but mass media hyped stuff can be a good thing if you can spot it and have done the work to know they are wrong.  If it causes extra demand on what you don’t want to back you will be more prone to find good value on what you do want to bank.

#3 – If you like to pick your own you might future benefit from Guy’s interpretation of Gordon Elliot’s words.

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Galway  Festival

A recent headline in the Racing Press

“Elliot Buoyed Up For His Lucky Track”

It was an interview with Gordon Elliot about
this weeks Galway Festival. I know the best
stable this week is Dermot Weld so I thought
I’d just have a look at Gordon Elliott’s record.

* Galway Festival since 2009

* Gordon Elliott’s runners

* There was a 0-64 record

So much for being his Lucky track !!!

Whoever wrote that article is an Amateur
To be fair he scores well here in the Autumn
His runners at this festival though are 0-64
It would make me think twice before I bet him

That Gordon Elliot article was very lazy but it
did throw up a quote I felt was just fascinating.
Read it and bear in mind he has a 0-64 record.

” It’s a very busy time for us in the next couple
of weeks. All the good winter horses will come
back in and we’ll start them off slowly and get
them going. We’ll have some smashing horses”

This infers that all these good horses he trains
have been away and haven’t resumed training
yet and will be out running later in the season.

This infers all his Galway Festival runners are
his second division horses and perhaps this is
why this trainer has a 0-64 record at this festival.

We should pay attention to this stat this week

Galway Festival since 2009

Dermot Weld 55-192
Gordon Elliott 0-64

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on July 31, 2015

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