Welsh Grand National

This is a copy of Guy’s Welsh Grand National analysis from last weekend.
I am popping it up here as it helps illustrate a few key points which I will discuss at the base of the page.

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1 Profile & Preview bet

Welsh National day albeit rearranged but still an
important race for us if not our signature race of
the year. This week has been dominated by the
weather and the glorious winning run we’ve had.

The unbeaten winning run has now ended which
takes pressure off and allows us to get back to a
normal routine as my messages this week looked
distorted as this was about winners not analysis.

Today is simply dominated by the Welsh National
with the primary aim to stake a bet on the winner.

If I had been on a bad run then I would have had
a safer bet but we have earnt the right this week
to try and end it with a bit of glory even if this is
a contest that will be run in desperate conditions.

 

Today’s Bet

Chepstow 1.45

Part Win Bet Part Place Bet
2 Savers
Staked to £10 For Guidance

Main Bet

WOODFORD COUNTY 14/1

£6 Win + £2 Place

Savers

MOUNTAINOUS 10/1 £1 Win

BOB FORD 16/1 £1 Win

WOODFORD COUNTY

Try and Get 5 Places
The best places to go are below
The best firms are top of the list

18/1 1/4  1-2-3-4     888sport – 32Red
16/1 1/4  1-2-3-4-5  bet365Paddy Power- Corals
16/1 1/4  1-2-3-4     stan james – Betway
14/1 1/4  1-2-3-4-5  Skybet- Tote – VC – Ladbrokes-Hills
14/1 1/4  1-2-3-4     Boyles – Spbet

Staking Plan

If BOB FORD wins we will win a small amount

If MOUNTAINOUS wins we can’t lose

If WOODFORD COUNTY Places we can’t lose

WOODFORD COUNTY winning is the main bet
If he wins we will have a winner around 11/1
With Money back chances on 3 other eventualities

 

Chepstow 1.45

WOODFORD COUNTY 14/1

£6 Win + £2 Place

Savers

MOUNTAINOUS 10/1 £1 Win
BOB FORD 16/1 £1 Win

Philip Hobbs is a top class trainer
This horse may yet be very good
At least good enough to win this off 10st 3lbs

We don’t know he is not very good yet
He has only had 12 Chase starts
He was favourite last year and finished 7th
Well beaten last year that will put many off

It has pigeon holed him into an unwelcome category
One of lacking the Class to win
And not being suited to the race
That is why he is 16/1 this year
There is a good chance he has been misjudged

He has had 6 runs in 2015
The first 5 were defeats
There were cast iron excuses for each run
His last race he won
That was a career best Racing Post Rating
Off a featherweight on ground he loves
I think he has an outstanding chance

Chepstow   1.45

Racing Post Odds

15/2 Cogry, 8/1 Mountainous, 8/1 Upswing
9/1 Emperor´s Choice, 9/1 Shotgun Paddy
12/1 Tour Des Champs, 14/1 Black Thunder
14/1 Bob Ford, 14/1 Return Spring, 14/1 Woodford County
16/1 Benvolio, 16/1 Red Devil Lads, 20/1 Bertie Boru
20/1 Fourovakind, 20/1 Masters Hill, 20/1 Saroque
25/1 Firebird Flyer, 25/1 Portrait King, 33/1 Allez Vic
33/1 Chase The Spud.

The Welsh National

Handicap Chase over 3m 5f run on Heavy Ground

BLACK THUNDER surely has too much weight
Much more than any other horse
It takes a Gold Cup performance to win with 11st 12lbs

I am taking out horses with poor recent runs
Go back to 2003 in this race
Horses beaten more than 12 lengths last time are 0-74
MASTERS HILL didn’t do enough last time
Not the right age and unsafe on Breeding stats
His Sires runners over 3m 1f + in Class 2 + are 0-15
None of the 15 that tried did better than a 5th place
BENVOLIO ran too badly last time out as well
He is sired by Beneficial which is a worry
I go into more detail about this sire later
BENVOLIO was 2nd in last years race
He’s had 3 runs since and all were miserable efforts
ALLEZ VIC lost too badly last time and fails the 0-74 stat

It’s now 20 years since a 10 year old won back in 1993
FOUROVAKIND is 11 but we should see him as a 10yo
As he would have been 10 without the abandonment
He badly fails my breeding statistics too
PORTRAIT KING is 11 and net a 10 year old
He is older than ideal and comes here PU and Fell
CHASE THE SPUD has nowhere near enough backclass

I need to deal with horses sired by Beneficial
Horses by Beneficial rarely win similar races
Ignoring Hunters and Cross Country races
The Sires runners over 3m 4f and more are just 1-101
Just take those in Graded races and all 34 lost
BENVOLIO (Already rejected) has this sire
UPSWING and RED DEVIL LADS also share this sire
I have to be a bit careful here
Beneficial did sire the runner up last year
UPSWING from this sire can’t be ruled out on sire stats
The Sire of his Dam has bred the 2002 winner of this
The Damsire has bred placed horses too in this race
One day soon a horse by Beneficial will break this statistic
I’d be very wary about opposing UPSWING on sire stats
There is an Age statistic I’ve found with this sire
If you look at horses sired by Beneficial
That were aged 7 or less
None have yet won over 3m 3f or more yet
All 51 that tried were beaten aged 7 or less
That does worry me about UPSWING
He is also having his 4th run of the season
21 of the last 22 winners had just 1-2 runs
UPSWING also has a career high mark to overcome
He has just been raised 3lbs for getting beaten
I won’t make him a negative despite his sire
But there is evidence in different areas raising concern
RED DEVIL LADS is sired by Beneficial
We know horses aged 7 or less by this sire
Have a 0-51 record running over 3m 3f or more
I don’t see him being the first to do so
He has never been out of a Class 3 race before

CORGY is  sired by King’s Theatre
King’s Theatre’s bred many Listed /Graded winners
Those that ran beyond 3m 2f were 0-47
CORGY is only a 6 year old
Only 2 horses his age have won since 1948
If you look at the two winners aged 6
They were several months older than him anyway
CORGY was a May Foal in 2009 and is younger
It’s enough to put me off
He has plenty of weight too and 6 weeks off
And he is 0-10 never placing 1-2-3 in fields of 10 or more
SAROQUE looks an unlikely stayer by a flat bred sire
Look at horses sired by Revoque
The furthest any of his runners have won at is 3m 3f
That was on much better ground in lower Grade
Look at this Sires runners in Class 2 or higher
Those that raced over 2m 6f or more are 0-23
FIREBIRD FLYER shouldn’t have the class
He has 17 Chase runs
Yet he’s never got himself into Listed Graded races
He is 0-11 in Class 2 races and never ran in better grade
I looked at his sire Winged Love
His runners over 3m 4f or more
Have a 1-34 record in Class 2 and higher
Not the most persuasive breeding statistic

EMPEROR´S CHOICE won this last year with 10st 8lbs
He tries to repeat that victory with 11st 1lbs
My biggest problem is having 1 race in a year
He has only raced once since last years win
He won first time out this year in a small field
But one run in a year is a problem statistically
We know last time winners were all lighter raced
If he wins so be it but I hate his preparation

SHOTGUN PADDY pulled up in last years race
Bad mistake at the 2nd and pulled up before the 7th
He had topweight last year
This year less weight – but 11st 5lbs is still a tough ask
Horses with 11st 1lbs and more have struggled
Just 3 have won with 11st 1lbs or more
Since the mighty Carvills Hill back in 1991
Look at the 3 horses that managed it
Master Oats did it with just 7 opponents
He went on and won a Cheltenham Gold Cup
Synchronised won with more than 11st 1lbs
He went on and won a Cheltenham Gold Cup too
Halcon Genelardais was the other horse to do it
He was far lighter raced and had less weight anyway
I think his last run earns him respect
But the weight is a problem
And the only 8yo winners with big weights
Both went on and won Cheltenham Gold Cups
TOUR DES CHAMPS won on his 1st run this year
He defied a massive absence to win
If I look at past winners who won last time
They were all lighter raced than he is
Worth remembering he pulled up in last years race
Perhaps a big field doesn’t suit him well
TOUR DES CHAMPS is 0-11 in Listed and Graded races
That is another worry and will he stay anyway ?
He is by the sire Robin Des Champs
Look at his runners in Class 2 or higher
None have won yet beyond 3m 1f
I don’t see enough I like about him

I think one of 5 horses might win

BERTIE BORU
RETURN SPRING
WOODFORD COUNTY
BOB FORD
MOUNTAINOUS

BERTIE BORU should not be underestimated
I thought he ran well at Sandown last time
I said that in the message the following day
I said I had 50 tenners about him winning this
He passes all the important angles
Last winter he was highly progressive
I fancied him at Sandown last January when he unseated
He then ran two bad races after that fall
There could easily be excuses for those bad losses
He was repeatedly hampered in the Eider Chase
He then was put away for the year
He came out and ran badly in the Badger Ales
That was his seasonal debut though
He probably was not fit
His next run at Sandown really impressed me
As I said earlier I backed him for this straight away
There is one problem for me
He is a Small type of horse
He will most likely be in last place early on
He will be unconvincing at a few fences
He will then creep into the race
You will probably want to cancel your bet early
You may then think – hang about – he has a chance
Then in the last 3rd of the race
It will depend on what energy has been saved
If this had been a 10 runner race
He would be a Maximum Bet each way at 25/1
But in a huge field heavy ground and a small horse
I just know there is huge potential to disappoint
Worth a bet at 25/1 but his size is a worry

RETURN SPRING was beaten 15 lengths last time out
Slightly more than ideal but that is forgiveable
He lost and shoe and had excuses last time
His Breeding profile worries me
I am far from convinced he will stay
He has 3 runs in long distance chases
He was Pulled Up and beaten 41 + 63 lengths
The others on my shortlist all have an extra prep run

BOB FORD won last time
The extra space since the abandonment helps him
He has yet to win in this Class before though
He can’t seem to string 2 good runs together
Perhaps he is a horse that needs a small field ?
If you look at last time out winners in this race
There were 5 winners who had fewer Chase runs
Those with 9 or more Chase runs were 1-30
BOB FORD has 17 Chase runs
He has far more weight than that winner
Not convinced with is inconsistent profile
Interesting he is trained in Wales
And all 6 wins have been at Welsh Tracks
Perhaps he is a horse that hates travelling
And only runs to form when racing locally
Not unknown for a horse to have this problem

MOUNTAINOUS is a 11 year old
We need to think of him as a 10 year old
We have to go back 20 years for the last 10yo winner
The issue is should we forgive him that
On the grounds that he won this race in 2013
Possibly we should but he has raced 3 times this year
This is his 4th race and that is far from the norm
There is a good reason to ignore his age
He did not start racing properly until he was 6 years old
You may remember I fancied him at Sandown last time
He ran a great race on ground a bit too quick
If you look at 10 year olds with under 12 Chase starts
Running within a month carrying under 11st
There was only a 0-9 record with these horses
Most of these were rank outsiders and one was 2nd
Maybe it is time to ignore this age statistic
Look at MOUNTAINOUS’s individual record
When running on Soft or Heavy
When running in the last 31 days
When beaten under 30 lengths last time out
He has a W W W 4 W W record
Despite his age I give him a big chance

WOODFORD COUNTY was 7th in last years race
He looks a better horse now he’s had more experience
Last time out he won a 3m 6f handicap on heavy
Ground and Distance won’t hold any fears
And he has a featherweight than must help
He’s never won beyond a Class 3 race before
I don’t mind that at all given his form
He has placed in a Midlands National
He has placed in an Eider Chase
I opposed him in this race last year
I didn’t feel he had enough backclass
I opposed him in the Eider Chase next time
He was a negative and underaced for such a test
I opposed him in the Midlands National too
The Eider Chase is a horrible trial race for Uttoxeter
I felt the race would come too soon
Now he managed 3rd in both those races
Two Gruelling marathon races run 3 weeks apart
It’s no wonder he flopped next time out at Haydock
I opposed him at Haydock because of his schedule
Welsh National Eider and Midlands National
It was just too much for him and understandably so
That was it for the season after that race
He needed his seasonal debut this year
WOODFORD COUNTY won his 2nd run last time out
That run on Racing Post Ratings was a career best
He’s a course winner and should go very well

Selection

WOODFORD COUNTY 14/1 £6 Win + £2 Place

MOUNTAINOUS 10/1 £1 Win

BOB FORD 16/1 £1 Win

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Some Points and Observations

#1 – As ever some very good and in depth analysis from Guy.
Mountainous won and Woodford County proved Guy’s words about
opting for a bookie with 5 places as sage advice when finishing 5th.
Bob Ford fell but was available in play on Betfair at much much shorter odds providing a trading opportunity for those who like to think that way.

#2 – The benefit of hindsight viewpoint on this individual race
may be that it could have been staked better.
Staked as per message top  eg £6 win and £2 place Woodford County at
16/1 for 5 places and £1 on Mountainous at 10/1 and £1 on Bob Ford would have returned  £21 for every tenner staked.
A win is a win as they say but with tinkered staking it could easily have been more.
Such things tend to even out however time and multiple races.
The root of Guy’s long term success and profitable horse betting
is all to do with in depth research that fine tunes a multi runner race
into one or a few value horses.

#3 – Last weeks blog post contained feedback from a client here.
See Racing Bet Staking

Summing up said clients personal feedback, two key points to boil
it right down might be:

A – Ignore each way advice from Guy and just bet everything on the nose
B – Great all savers as full stakes as they as a subset provide proven long term edge.

So I guess that particular client will be saying “I told you so”
as he would have staked three win singles on the nose
with one of them returning a 10/1 winner.

#4 – This particular race is a useful example to help
explain how we record results here because it is a bet with
more complicated than usual staking.

The vast majority of Guy’s official tips are straight forward win or each way.
He puts them out with a simple level stakes approach.
On certain days however he will opt to split that level stake up across a few runners. When he does that he uses in his message a nominal £10 total stake just to demonstrate how he suggests splitting up the total stake.

So if your normal stake was £100 for the sake of argument.
Many days you would be having £100 on the nose or £50 each way.
Last Saturday you would have had £60 win and £20 place.
Then two further £10 on the nose bets to add up to your normal £100 total.

It’s not rocket science really.
Each official tip we deem to carry equal stakes.
Just that on some days this stake may be split across a few horses.
Simple enough really.

For our results chart and spreadsheet instead of £10 nominal
units I would just note it as 1 pt total.

See the results chart here
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/profit-chart.asp

That chart mirrors how Guy actually advised his stakes.
But as you can see from the client feed back link above
clients are free to stake with approaches that best suit themselves.

And just shout for the official tip results spreadsheet if you want it.

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on January 15, 2016

Racing Bet Staking

Members Feedback on Staking of Racing Tips

This is a bit of feedback from a client we received this week.

I thought I would reproduce it here as it does raise

some interesting points.

Read More…

Posted under Bet Doctor

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on January 7, 2016