Cheltenham Gold Cup Analysis

As past promised Guy’s Cheltenham Gold Cup thoughts
are copied below for you.

He has a very good record in this race as you can see

2015 – Holywell placed at 12/1 & SamWinner – Lost
2014 – On His Own ew @ 22/1 2nd by a nose
2014 – Last Installment @ 7/1 Lost
2013 – Long Run ew @ 5/1 Placed
2012 – Synchronised WON 10/1
2011 – Long Run WON 5/1
2010 – Imperial Commander WON 12/1

2009 – Albertas Run Lost 14/1
2008 – Denman WON 9/4
2007 – No Bet
2006 – Hedgehunter 2nd 20/1 – Forget The Past
3rd 9/1

So as you can see losing years as well as winning ones but

the net big picture is very positive.

Fingers crossed for a good result today
but win lose or draw you can see you are fishing
in what has been a productive pool.

Over to Guy

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Cheltenham 3.30

£8 Win Don Poli 5/1
£2 Saver Cue Card 4/1

We have a Great Gold Cup record
To be perfectly honest
I did this race a few days ago
I was dying to go with Road to Riches
And have a saver on Don Poli
But that horse ran in the Ryanair
So I am promoting Don Poli to selection
For me he is the Natural Gold Cup winner
Nothing else can win this race on paper
But as you know they don’t run on paper
There are factors I can not control here
Not least Ground and Tactics
And how this may help the non stayers
So rather than Go each way
Which I normally would and probably should
I am going with a Saver
And betting Don Poli as a win bet

Cheltenham 3.30

Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1)

11/4 Don Cossack, 7/2 Djakadam, 4/1 Cue Card
9/2 Don Poli, 9/1 Road To Riches, 9/1 Smad Place
25/1 Carlingford Lough, 50/1 O´faolains Boy
66/1 Irish Cavalier, 66/1 On His Own.

The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y
I like lightly raced horses in this race
I want a horse that has roughly 5-14 Chase runs
The last 20 winners had the following chase runs

3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
Only Kauto Star has won with more than 13 Chases

This is a problem for the following horses

On His Own – 27 Chase runs
Cue Card – 21 Chase runs
Carlingford Lough – 20 Chase runs
Don Cossack – 18 Chase run
Sir Des Champs – 15 Chase runs

Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969
All 40 that ran in the last 19 years lost.
ON HIS OWN is rejected aged 12

Horses aged 10 do not have a great record either
Horses aged 10 + have a 1-96 record since 1992

CARLINGFORD LOUGH is 10 years old
He is sired by King’s Theatre
This sire has bred 98 Graded winners
Those that ran beyond 3m 2f were 0-48
I failed him in last years race for the same reason
I don’t think he stayed then or will today

CUE CARD has exactly the same problem
He is also 10 and we know these underperform
But CUE CARD is also by King’s Theatre
This sire has bred 98 Graded winners
Those that ran beyond 3m 2f were 0-48

IRISH CAVALIER is not good enough
O´FAOLAINS BOY is impossible to fancy

SMAD PLACE has had a great season
He has won the Hennessy and was 4th in the King George
I opposed him in this race last year
He was well beaten but he is a better horse now
SMAD PLACE started life on the flat albeit abroad
No winners since 1979 had ran on the Flat
I also find him on the exposed side with 28 Chase runs
Having so many hurdle runs (14) is also a bad sign
I know he has won a Hennessy
But I don’t think he stays the Gold Cup distance
SMAD PLACE is also 0-12 in Grade 1 races
I don’t think he has the stamina in this class

DJAKADAM was second in last years race
Obviously that earns him a lot of respect
He was a young horse last year
He doesn’t seem to have gone backwards
I do have one problem with him
Because he fell last time out at the 10th fence
He has only had 1 run and 10 fences this season
Since as far back as 1982
Only 5 horses aged 7 have won the Gold Cup
These 5 winners had 5 4 4 3 4 runs that season

7 Year Old Gold Cup winners since 1982

Kuato Star had 5 runs that season in 2007
War of Attrition had 4 runs that season in 2006
Kicking King had 4 runs that season in 2005
Best Mate had 3 runs that season in 2002
Imperial Call had 4 runs that season in 1996
DJAKADAM only has 1 run and 10 fences

DON COSSACK is clearly very talented
His 2 Festival appearances have yet to succeed
My main problem is he has 18 Chase starts
The last 20 winners had the following chase runs
3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
19 of the last 20 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts
Only Kauto Star has won with more
That stops him being the selection
Far from convinced he fully stays this far
His sire has bred just 1 winner over 3m 2f or more
That winner came in a Class 7 race

Shortlist

DON POLI is a 7yo
He has 12 career starts 6 Chase runs and 3 this season
Look at Best Mate back in 2012
He had 12 career starts 6 Chase runs and 3 this season
DON POLI has exactly the same profile
Different types admittedly but a solid enough profile
Some argue he is too slow but I don’t by that
He’s won a RSA with the longest absence in 50 years
You can not pigeon hold a horse as quickly as that
Yes the drying ground could be an issue
Yes he could find himself a little outpaced at times
And I do have some reservations on that score
And Bryan Cooper has chosen Don Cossack
It is for those reasons I am making him a win bet
Rather than an each way bet
Because of that I am having a saver
I don’t fancy CUE CARD much
But if DON POLI does disappoint
Then none of them are sure to stay
And the race has to be won by something

Selection

£8 Win DON POLI 5/1

£2 Saver Cue Card 4/1

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Other Info

#1 – Note this advice above was from the full members "Profile
& Preview" section.

In short that is a race Guy examined but in the end decided
edge of value was not sufficient to meet his picky standards
for an official tip. If interested you can see longer term
profit chart for the stuff he does decide is an official tip.

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/profit-chart.asp

#2 – Our Cheltenham sale page is still live if you are interested.
Forget about Cheltenham and it still offers a half price month
1 of full membership. It is a good opportunity to come in
and see how a long term profitable service works. See with
with your own eyes in real time etc. The super simple refund
guarantee gives you chance to examine and later change your
mind. The offer page will come down after the weekend when
I get back to work on Monday.

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

 

#3 – The Saturday Day Pass is available in its usual spot
if you are more interested in Saturday Only

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass

Note the 11am Saturday morning cut off time for the Day Pass.

 

Best Wishes
Mick
Site Admin
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

Posted under Major Horse Races