The last day of the Festival
Cheltenham Gold Cup Day

That race is our main target
Edwulf is our ante post bet
We have £5 stake remaining
Increasing stakes on Edwulf
With the saver on Might Bite



Gold Cup Staking Explained

Already Advised Ante Post

Edwulf 20/1 £3 Win
Edwulf 20/1 £2 Place
£5 Staked Ante Post

Remaining £5 Stake Today
£3 Win Edwulf 16/1
£2 Might Bite 4/1

Leaves this final stakes
£3 Win Edwulf 20/1
£3 Win Edwulf 16/1
£2 Place Edwulf 20/1
£2 Saver Might Bite 4/1



EDWULF is given the chance
He is a 16/1 semi-outsider
It would not be any surprise
Were he to win or pull up today
I am hoping it will be the former
And win lose of draw today
I am happy with our 16/1-20/1
He may just have the momentum
And he is close enough on ratings



CHELTENHAM 3.30 – THE GOLD CUP

7/2 Might Bite, 4/1 Native River, 13/2 Our Duke,
9/1 Killultagh Vic, 10/1 Definitly Red, 10/1 Road To Respect,
14/1 Edwulf, 14/1 Total Recall, 20/1 Djakadam,
25/1 American, Anibale Fly, 33/1 Bachasson,
33/1 Outlander, 50/1 Tea For Two, 66/1 Saphir Du Rheu

EDWULF is my Gold Cup horse
He has come here late under the radar
Most presumed he’d never run again
After what happened to him last year
Blew me away at Navan in Feb 2017
My Cheltenham Banker in the 4 miler
Had would have been 1st or 2nd there
EDWULF then collapsed in spasms
Looking like he might even die
Lost his eyesight which has returned

How do we know he is not the best horse
Or the horse best suited to the Gold Cup
He looked a machine to me last season
What happened to him in 2017 is a concern
But he appears to have overcome that now

That should be seen as a sign of courage
Wrong to assume he is soft and damaged
He has just won a Grade 1 Chase in Ireland
Beating several horses he faces today
And he has done that in impressive style
When he had not had a proper race all year
I do not believe that race was any fluke
EDWULF is a guaranteed stayer unlike many
He does not have to improve that much

On Official ratings MIGHT BITE is top rated on 169
EDULF is only 4lbs lower on 165
That is not much to find at all
When on his Racing Post Ratings
EDWULF comes here on a career best



Number of Chase runs

19 Djakadam
17 Outlander
15 Saphir Du Rheu
13 Definitly Red
13 Tea For Two
12 Native River
11 Mala Beach
10 Road To Respect
10 Edwulf
10 Anibale Fly
9 Might Bite
8 Total Recall
7 Our Duke
5 Bachasson
5 American
3 Killultagh Vic

Under 15 Chase runs is ideal
The more over 15 you have
The less your chance of winning
The Previous 22 Gold Cup winners
Had the following career chase runs

9 18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11
12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

20 of the 22 last Gold Cup winners
Had under 15 previous chase runs
Kauto Star was one of the exceptions
Don Cossack managed it in a weak year
Generally speaking you want <15 chases

DJAKADAM is too exposed
He has already had his chance
His sire has not bred a soft ground winner
In Class 2 or higher beyond 3m 1f

OUTLANDER is too exposed now
Horses aged 10 + are 1-104 since 1992
Doesn’t stay this trip well enough
SAPHIR DU RHEU is overexposed
Especially with just 1 run this season

MALA BEACH is outclassed
Horses aged 10 + are just 1-104 since 1992
TEA FOR TWO is outclassed

BACHASSON is a 7 year old
Past 7yo Gold Cup winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
I would be worried about a 7 year old
If having just 2 runs this season
I don’t fancy him given the conditions

There are several unproven stayers
TOTAL RECALL has breeding issues
Horses sired by Westerner
3m 2f or more
Good to soft or worse
Class 2 or higher
Return a 0-23 record
He also comes from a hurdle race
None have done that in decades
And he has no Grade 1 winning form

ANIBALE FLY 33/1 fell last time
Hardly the best preparation
Neither trainer or sire look welcoming
Stamina has to be proven as well
The last 16 winners of this race
Had won a Grade 1 race and he hasn’t

NATIVE RIVER has to be respected
He was 3rd in last years race
But he had 4 prep runs beforehand
This year he only has 1 warm up race
That is not a good sign statistically
Soft ground could compound that
He has raced just once in 364 days
So I do not feel that drawn to him

KILLUTAGH VIC is inexperienced
He only has 3 previous Chase runs
The last 22 winners had the following
9 18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11
12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

21 of the 22 winners had at least 5 runs
Coneygree (2015) was the only exception
He had a safer profile that Killultagh Vic
Coneygree had more runs that season
And He did not come here after a fall
KILLUTAGH VIC has 2 runs in 14 months
He fell in one of those races as well
Not for me in with 3 chases on bad ground
Not in a big field with so few runs this year

AMERICAN has 5 Chase starts
That would be the bare minimum
He has only raced twice this season
Only 1 and a half times really
As he pulled up in one of those runs
It may be asking too much from him

OUR DUKE is clearly very talented
After beaten in Ireland by Edwulf
He did win last time at Gowran Park
Not sure that is a great preparation
OUR DUKE has a 27 day absence
Cheltenham Gold Cup since 1997
Horses running in the last 32 days
Have a 0-62 record in the last 21 years
OUR DUKE fails this 0-62 record
He also comes from a 2m 4f race
The only horses that managed that
Were 9 year olds and he is younger
He also lacks any Cheltenham form
He would make it on a long shortlist
High class prospect but lots to prove

ROAD TO RESPECT has every chance
But he has to prove his stamina
I like 10 chase runs and much about him
His last 2 runs were career bests
Is he bred to win a Gold Cup though
Sire was a 12f Flat horse after all
Take the sires runners in Class 4 +
None have yet won beyond 3m 1f
I see positives and negatives
But he does not make the staking



Shortlist

DEFINITELY RED is shortlistable
Unfashionable but seems solid
Consider his Cotswold Chase win
Racing Post Rating was 172 that day
Sizing John won the 2017 Gold Cup
His Racing Post Rating was only 171
If he stays no shock if he won this
But I do have some reservations
His last Racing Post Rating of 171
Might well have flattered him
My other problem is his class
He has not yet won a Grade 1 though
Been a long time since a winner didn’t
He has only just come out of handicaps
As Ireland are dominating this game
Can we really expect a Northern winner ?

MIGHT BITE has to prove his stamina
But put that aside for one moment
He is the highest rated horse in the race
He is W W W W W in his last 5 races
That includes a RSA Chase
It also includes a King George Chase
Without a doubt he is the class horse
But he’s not shown that over this far
And heavy ground won’t make it easier
MIGHT BITE is sired by Scorpion
Scorpions runners in Class 4 or higher
Have yet to win any race past 3m 1f
But very few have actually tried yet



Selection

We have an Ante Post Bet

£3 Win £2 Place EDWULF 20/1

The remaining £5 Stake today
£3 EDWULF 16/1
£2 MIGHT BITE 4/1

This leaves this final staking

Leaves this final stakes

EDWULF

£3 Win Edwulf 20/1 [past advised ]
£3 Win Edwulf 16/1
£2 Place Edwulf 20/1 [ past advised ]
£2 Saver Might Bite 4/1

MIGHT BITE 4/1

£2 Saver Bet

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Gold Cup Official Tip – Part One

One of our promises here is to pass on
for free our analysis of the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Things are a little strange this year with Guy
deciding to invest 50% of his total stake on the race
early. The below was sent to full members on Sunday
March 11th. Odds on offer are fluid and subject to change
since then

There will be a future update here on this blog
about the Gold Cup whenever Guy decides
which horse best merits the remnant 50% of stake.
Most probably this may be on Gold Cup Day itself.
But exact timing can not be guaranteed.
Exact timing will be done to best suit what Guy
feels is best for full members.
He could for example see extra edge in
going in the day before the race.

If you are into twitter note
that a tweet will be sent
as soon as we blog post here.

Follow on Twitter at

https://twitter.com/#!/mathbetting

===================

1 Account bet

This is Ante Post
In the Cheltenham Gold Cup
Partially staked to 50% stake

Account Bet

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Friday – Cheltenham 3.30pm

EDWULF 20/1 +

£3 Win

£2 Place

Half Stakes Today
The remaining £5 Stake
Will be given nearer the race

25/1 Hills
22/1 Sportingbet Betfair
20/1 Ladbrokes Skybet Unibet Coral
20/1 Boyles Betbright

Cheltenham Gold Cup

EDWULF is 25/1 with Hills
He is 20/1 with most firms
He is around 22/1 on Betfair

Last night I backed him to win
The last review I did on this race
I had him on a list of 5 horses
Of potential shock winners

Minella Rocco 33/1
Edwulf 25/1
Road to Respect 10/1
Definitely Red 20/1
Double Shuffle 40/1

EDWULF has made the staking
I want to bet him now at the price

This horse is lucky to be alive
I spotted him earlier than most

Blew me away at Navan in February 2017
He was my Cheltenham Banker in 2017
Had every chance in the 4 miler
Before he collapsed in spasms
Looking like he might even die
He lost his eyesight which has returned

No reason why he can’t win this
Just done a career best Racing Post Rating
He seems to have been unfairly overlooked
As a horse lucky to be still alive and racing
Perhaps people might see him as weak and soft
Having had such a horrible experience

That could well be a big mistake
It could be a collectively false assumption
He’s just won the Irish Gold Cup
Having hardly had a race all season
Maybe he is the horse I always felt he was
His last win was really impressive
He has a lovely Gold Cup profile as well
EDWULF will be part of my staking plan
I think we should bet him now at 20/1

 

——————————————————————–

Cheltenham Offer

Note that we have a deal on this week to celebrate Cheltenham.

It is aimed at giving those of you who have not yet tried the full member service
a good excuse to come in and check it out with your own eyes this week.

See http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Just a quick copy of Guy’s analysis
for last Saturday’s Imperial Cup.

Some of the stats, angles and thought
train may be of use to you for next year’s running
if you copy and save or bookmark.

Call Me Lord was beaten by a mere neck.
Frustratingly close to a proper win and not just place money.

If seeking a general wider point of learning from the below
it could perhaps be to note Guy’s willingness to slightly buck
elements of trend research. In this particular instance it was
the weight issue.

Some will use trend research too brutally at times.
A stat they will use as a reason not to think any deeper.

For Guy they are often more so a starting point.
Most definitely a useful tool in the armoury
but never to be trusted blindly.
More so they are a foundation upon
which extra thought is then layered.

=========================

Saturdays Imperial Cup

CALL ME LORD 8/1
Each Way
1/4 Odds 1,2,3,4

Scenario 1

Call Me Lord has an impossible weight
In a race where highweights never win
As a 5yo on bad ground with Topweight
It is probably asking far too much of him
Giving weight to older talented horses

Scenario 2

Call Me Lord is comfortably the class horse
He should overcome his large weight
The frame of the weights favours him
He’s a 152 rated horse facing just a 0-140
He has a significant class advantage
And he should at least make the 1-2-3-4

Obviously we are hoping it’s Scenario 2

SANDOWN 2.25 – Imperial Cup

9/2 Whatswrongwithyou, 6/1 Le Patriote, 13/2 Call Me Lord,
8/1 Silver Streak, 8/1 Friday Night Light, 12/1 Octagon,
12/1 Huntsman Son, 14/1 Master Of Irony, 14/1 Fidux,
14/1 Highway One O One, 16/1 Mr Antolini, 20/1 Gassin Golf,
20/1 Castafiore, 25/1 Man Of Plenty, 25/1 Birch Hill,
25/1 Chti Balko, 25/1 Shanroe Saint
 
Graded Handicap Hurdle over 2 miles

This traditionally goes to lightweights
But this year may well be different

CALL ME LORD has topweight of 11st 12lbs
He fails my weight statistics because of this
But I have to see him as the class horse

CALL ME LORD is rated 152
He only faces a 0-140 class field
Before he ran in the Kingswell Hurdle
He was 25/1 to win the Champion Hurdle

Topweight or not
He surely is better than 0-140 Grade
I am asking myself that around 7/1
With 4 places available with 17 runners
Can we not expect him to at least place ?

The ideal profile in this race
A Horse aged 4-5-6
With under 10 hurdle runs
And under 11st 3lbs weight
Most past winners had this profile

Horses aged 7 or more
Have a 3-138 record since 2001
All 3 winners of these older
Had 10st 5lbs or less
Horses aged 7 or older
Who carry 10st 6lbs or more
Have a miserable 0-92 record in this  

Horses failing these angles
GASSIN GOLF is 9 with 25 hurdle runs
MAN OF PLENTY is 9 with 21 hurdle runs
MR ANTOLINI is an 8yo with 15 hurdle runs
That is not the kind of horse that won this

OCTAGON is an 8yo older than ideal
You can argue he has a light weight
And is not too exposed over hurdles
But 74 days off could be a problem
Horses aged 7 or more like him
Absent more than 6 weeks were 0-41

HUNTSMAN SON is an 8 year old
We know horses aged 7 or more
Have a 0-92 record with 10st 6lbs +
HUNTSMAN SON fails this statistic
 
Nicky Henderson has 2 huge runners
CALL ME LORD the class horse
WHATSWRONGWITHYOU the favourite
 
WHATSWRONGWITHYOU could easily win
He does have a few little profile problems
Horses aged 7 + with 10st 6lbs or more
Have a miserable 0-92 record in this race
WHATSWRONGWITHYOU fails this angle
He is a 7 year old with 10st 13lbs
He only has 3 hurdle starts as well
Past winners had the following hurdle starts
4 5 4 4 19 8 6 5 3 3 9
The 2008 -2009 winners had 3 hurdle runs
They were younger horses though
One came from a Class 2 handicap hurdle
They other was a Group horse in France
WHATSWRONGWITHYOU is not a perfect fit
 
Horses from Novice or Maiden Hurdles
Have won a few races in the dim and distant
But since 2009 the last 26 have been beaten
WHATSWRONGWITHYOU has this problem
Not sure he is that well treated off 139
His Best Racing Post Rating is just 133
He’s Sired by a sprinter on the flat
Who has a stamina index of only 6.5 furlongs
I prefer the other Henderson runner

I am avoiding horses with light season
Look at the recent winners of this race
They had the following runs that season   
8 5 8 4 8 3 6 6 3 3 8
I’d demand at least 3 runs this year
BIRCH HILL is an 8yo
He looks underraced this year

SILVER STREAK could be as well
He is a 5 year old
He unseated rider at the 2nd last time
That means he has just 2 full races this year
We know all past winners had 3 or more
That could well cost him in the closing stages
SILVER STREAK fails another serious angle
Go back as far as 2001
Horses from Handicap Hurdles
9 or more previous hurdle runs
Have a 0-110 record in this race
SILVER STREAK fails this 0-110 record
 
FIDUX is a 5 year old
He looks a bit too exposed to me
Horses aged 5 have a 4-55 record
These had 4 5 8 4 hurdle starts
FIDUX has 10 hurdle runs
Not to mention 24 career starts as well
 
SHANROE SAINT is still a maiden
He lacks backclass and looks outclassed
CASTAFIORE is a 5 year old
He won last time and is up 10lbs
Probably too exposed to overcome that
 
CHTI BALKO is a 6yo
Has plenty of weight with 9 hurdle runs

MASTER OF IRONY has 98 days off
That’s longer than every  past winner
With 20 lifetime starts he is quite exposed

HIGHWAY ONE O ONE is absent 74 days  
12 of the last 13 winners
Ran in the previous 55 days
Longest absent winner was 92 days
His absence is not helpful
But his numbers are progressive
He is lightly raced so respected
 

Shortlist
 
FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHT
CALL ME LORD
LE PATRIOTE

FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHT has a decent profile
Lightly raced 5 year old lightweight
 
LE PATRIOTE won last time out
Lots to like as an improving 6yo
Career best Racing Post Rating last time

CALL ME LORD has 11st 12lbs
So far hasn’t been a race for high weights
Last years winner had 11st 2lbs
The previous 12 had 11st or less  

Horses with 11st or more are 1-85
Horses with 11st 3lbs or more are 0-50

CALL ME LORD has a very tough weight
In his favour he is the class horse
Rated 152 He only takes on a 0-140 field
As explained earlier I do like that angle
 
Look at his win here in April 2017
It was the last day of the 2017 season
CALL ME LORD had topweight
He had the second longest absence
He won the Juvenile Handicap easily
CALL ME LORD has a W W track record
He won again here in January
That was just as good a race as this
He was 13/8 favourite in the Kingswell Hurdle
That was a strangely run race
He was racing on the worst ground that day
The horses beating him raced apart from him
I think he should be capable of taking this

Selection

CALL ME LORD 8/1

£4 Each Way

1/4 Odds 1,2,3,4

Posted under Major Horse Races

Posted up below are some initial thoughts on the 2018 Cheltenham Gold Cup.

They were sent to full members as part of our Future Betting Angles sub section on March the 4th.

This is early thought stuff from Guy.

More information will have slotted into place by the day of the race itself.

– Who is definitely running?

– What will the going be?

– What are the morning odds on offer?

– Where is the value?

 

We will post up his day of race final conclusion here on this blog too.

Guy has a strong long term profit record in the race as you can judge at this link

Cheltenham Gold Cup Free Tip

 

Free feel to follow on twitter as we will tweet when his day of race analysis is up here for you.

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup – Thoughts From March 4th

Might Bite (4) Native River (13/2) Sizing John (7)
Our Duke (9) Killultagh Vic (10) Road To Respect (10)
Definitly Red (20) Total Recall (20)Edwulf (25)
Minella Rocco (25) Cue Card (33) Djakadam (33)
Outlander (33) Anibale Fly (40) Bachasson (40)
Double Shuffle (40) Tea For Two (66) Saphir Du Rheu (100)

Could this be a Soft Ground Gold Cup ?
Only 2 of the last 20 were run on soft/heavy

What effect will that have ?

MIGHT BITE’s may not want it soft
As his stamina will be tested more
His Sire is Scorpion
Scorpions runners in Class 4 or higher
Have yet to win any race past 3m 1f

NATIVE RIVER has just 1 run this season
That is not a good sign statistically
Soft ground could compound that
SAPHIR DU RHEU has the same problem

DJAKADAM has 18 Chase runs
Thats too exposed these days
Has he not had his chance ?
His sire has not bred a winner
On softer ground in Class 2 +beyond 3m 1f

OUR DUKE has a 27 day absence
Cheltenham Gold Cup since 1997
Horses running in the last 32 days
Have a 0-62 record in the last 21 years
OUR DUKE will fail this 0-62 record
Has his last run left it’s mark ?
He also comes from a 2m 4f race
The only horses that managed that
Were 9 year olds and he is younger
He also has no Cheltenham form

We know that the past 7yo winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
I would be worried about a 7 year old
If having just 1-2 runs this season
And if the ground is softer than usual
That could well hurt BACHASSON

SIZING JOHN won this last year
But he has raced just twice this season
He has now had 13 Chase starts
Thats more than any past winner
Who had under 3 runs this season
He ran badly last time as well
And it is not easy to retain your title
His Breeding stats are weaker on soft
Horses sired by Midnight Legend
Soft and heavy ground
Class 2 grade and higher
Have a 0-19 record over 3m 2f +

TOTAL RECALL has breeding issues
Horses sired by Westerner
3m 2f or more
Good to soft or worse
Class 2 or higher
Return a 0-23 record
He also comes from a hurdle race
None have done that in decades
And he has no Grade 1 winning form

KILLULTAGH VIC is inexperienced
The last 21 winners had the following chase runs
18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
He only has 3 Chase starts
The 2016 winners managed that
But he had more runs that season
And did not come here after a fall

ANIBALE FLY 33/1 fell last time
Hardly the best preparation
Neither trainer or sire look welcoming
Stamina has to be proven as well
The last 16 winners of this race
Had won a Grade 1 race and he hasn’t

 
 
If we take out the rank outsiders
Available at 100/1 and more on Betfair
We are left with the following horses

 

Potential Shock Winners

MINELLA ROCCO 33/1
EDWULF 25/1
ROAD TO RESPECT 10/1
DEFINITELY RED 20/1
DOUBLE SHUFFLE 40/1

 

MINELLA ROCCO 33/1

Horrible trainer to trust
But you can trust him in this race
He was 2nd last year after all
You have to see him as a spring horse
My worry is that on soft or heavy
His Racing Post Ratings drop badly
The better the ground the better his chance
And he has yet to win a Grade 1

 
EDWULF 25/1

Surely his last run suggests
That his injury last year is overcome
I fancied him big time at Cheltenham
May have won without breaking down
Just imagine if he had won that race
Would he not be half the price than he is

 
ROAD TO RESPECT 10/1

I like 10 chase runs and much about him
His last 2 runs were career bests
Is he bred to win a Gold Cup though
Sire was a 12f Flat horse after all
But positives far outweigh negatives

 
DEFINITELY RED 20/1

Unfashionable but solid
Consider his Cotswold Chase win
His Racing Post Rating was 172 that day
When Sizing John won the 2017 Gold Cup
His Racing Post Rating was only 171
That surely gets him shortlisted
If he stays no shock if he won
He has not yet won a Grade 1 though
Been a long time since a winner didn’t

 
DOUBLE SHUFFLE 40/1

Second in a King George is significant
What if he wasn’t flattered that day ?
Profile and sire stats are positive
He has placed at a Cheltenham Festival
Needed his first 2 runs this season
There are a lot worse bets at 40/1

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This is a bit of an after timed post with a copy of Guy’s analysis of the Eider Chase from a week or so back.

It is a bit late posting it up but I thought

– We have used this blog very little of late so I thought I should post up something to help remind google and humans we are still alive.  The main service is very active indeed however despite inactivity on this blog area.

– Some service only put effort in for the likes of Cheltenham.  This I guess helps demo that Guy works very hard all year round for clients. The Eider is a major enough race of course but if you ever join the full service don’t be surprised to see excess in depth examination of much more minor races too.  If one seeks edge over the market one needs to be prepared to work harder than the average market participant whether that is for Cheltenham or a boggy afternoon at Plumton.

– The forward thinking advance planners amongst you can save the thought train below to a safe place and re examine it again for the Eider Chase 2019.  It may help provide you with the inspiration to unlock the race for yourself next year.

– I won a nice few £ on BayWing so this race is close to my personal heart.

 

 

NEWCASTLE 2.45 – THE EIDER CHASE – FEB 24th

5/1 Vinnie Lewis, 7/1 West Of The Edge,
8/1 Back To The Thatch, 8/1 Hainan,
9/1 Baywing, 10/1 Milansbar, 12/1 Chase The Spud,
12/1 Houblon Des Obeaux, 14/1 Smooth Stepper,
16/1 Thebarrowman, Themanfrom Minella, 20/1 Boric,
20/1 Milborough, 25/1 Portrait King, Silver Tassie,
50/1 Lochnell, Millicent Silver.

The Eider Chase
This is a Class 2 Handicap
Run over an extended 4 miles
One of my favourite races

Number of Chase runs

36 Houblon des Obeaux
27 Portrait King
25 Silver Tassie
23 Boric
19 Milborough
19 West of The Edge
16 Themanfrom Minella
15 Smooth Stepper
14 Milansbar
14 Chase The Spud
12 Millicent Silver
8 Hainan
7 Baywing
7 Lochnell
4 Thebarrowman
4 Back To The Thatch
4 Vinnie Lewis

No Hurry to bet ageing horses
Handicap Chases since 1998
Any Time of year
3m 5f or more
Class 2 or higher
Look at horses aged 12 or more
They have a miserable 2-246 record

PORTRAIT KING is out as a 13 years old
Too exposed and out of form

MILBOROUGH is the only 12yo
He looks far too short of recent runs
He’s only had previous 1 run this season

Runs This Season are important
If you look at the past recent winners
And how many races they had ran
Since August 1st that season
They had 2 3 5 3 3 5 2 5 3 4 4 6 7 7 4 3 6 6 runs
In the last at 18 renewals
16 of the 18 winners had 3 + runs that year
18 of the 18 winners had 2 + runs that year
MILBOROUGH is rejected with 1 run

CHASE THE SPUD has 2 runs this season
He did not finish his last run pulling up
Only 2 of the last 18 winners since 1997
Had under 3 runs that season
He looks underraced off his current rating

He has to to defy a handicap mark of 149
When you consider every winner since 1997
Won with an official rating of 139 or lower
CHASE THE SPUD has it all to prove

Horses with 20 + Chase runs rarely win
Handicap Chases since 1998
Run between January and March
3m 5f or more
Class 2 or higher
There are 86 of these races
Horses with 20 + Chase runs
Have a miserable 1-158 record

HOUBLON DES OBEAUX has 36 chase runs
He is this most exposed horse in the race
He also fails this 1-158 statistic
He is rated 144 which compacts his problem
As all winners since 197 were rated 139 or less
He is 0-9 over 3m 3f and more anyway
SILVER TASSIE has 25 Chase runs
He fails the 1-158 angle with over 20 chase runs
I don’t think he will stay over 4 miles
His sire’s runners over 3m 4f are 0-38
The Damsire is also a serious concern
BORIC has 23 Chase runs
He also fails that 1-158 statistic
He will need a career best to take this

Recent winners had these Chase runs
7 11 8 11 5 5 7 13 21 9 7 13 13 8
If you look at the last 15 winners
14 of these had under 14 career starts

THEMANFROMMINELLA has 16 Chase runs
That is more than the norm in this race
14 of the last 15 winners had under 15
I would be wary sired by Shantou
His sire’s runners over 3m 4f are 0-38
His 3 runs over 3m 3f + were dreadful

WEST OF THE EDGE has 19 Chase runs
Thats not a positive sign in this race
He also has the longest absence as well
My Breeding stats are not convinced
Look at the record of the sire Westerner
This sires runners in Class 4 or higher
Have a 1-34 record over 3m 3f or more
His runners in Class 2 or higher
Have a 0-34 record over 3m 2f or more
WEST OF THE EDGE has positives
A Career best run last time being one
His Negatives outweight his positives
In a heavy ground 4 mile Eider Chase
Do we really want to bet the horse
With the longest absence in the race ?

MILANSBAR Pulled up in last years race
He is probably better in a smaller field
That is acceptable but he is an 11yo
Two things worry me about that
He has a 42 day absence
He has a Handicap Mark of 143
All winners since 1997 were rated 139 or less
MILANSBAR has more than all of these
His 6 week absence is not helpful either
The 2 recent 11yo winners ran within 17 days

January Febuary March
Handicap Chases over 3m 4f +
Run in Class 2 or higher
Since 2010
Horses aged 11 or more
Absent more than 35 days
Had a 0-103 record
MILANSBAR fails this 0-103 angle
MILBOROUGH also fails this 0-13 angle

MILLICENT SILVER is an out of form mare
Pulled up last time only 15 days ago
LOCHNELL doesn’t have the numbers
9yo Mare hammered ina Novice Handicap
Doesn’t strike me as an Eider winner

THEBARROWMAN has 4 Chase runs
Past winners had the following chases
7 11 8 11 5 5 7 13 21 9 7 13 13 8
If you look at the last 15 winners
None of the last 15 had under 5 Chase runs
THEBARROWMAN only has 4 Chase runs
Thats fewer than all past winners
I don’t think he offers enough
Given he has 2 recent heavy defeats
And his pedigree hardly screams 4m

BACK TO THE HATCH has 4 Chase runs
A bigger worry He is only a 6 year old
As a June foal he is just 5 days 8 months
This race started in 1952
No horse aged 6 has won it before
Throw in some dodgy breeding stats
Horses sired bt Westerner
Running over 3m 2f + in Class 2 +
Have a 0-34 record
46 renewals since 1952
None went to a 6 year old
BACK TO THE HATCH looks unsafe

Shortlist

VINNIE LEWIS has 4 Chase runs
We now the last 15 had 5 or more
So it is a big ask for a 7 year old
But he is improving fast
His Numbers are progressive
But he is still quite young
We know no 6 year olds have won
Since the winner back in 1976
Only 2 winners aged 7 have won since
They have a 2-20 record since 1997
Horses aged 7 won in 1998 and 2012
They both ran within the last 3 weeks
VINNIE LEWIS has 48 days off the track

HAINAN is a 7yo
Since 1976 only 2 have won
They both ran within the last 3 weeks
HAINAN has 35 days off the track
I like his numbers which are strong
Not certain to stay this far though
And he had a hard race last time
Will he have enough recovery time
After a 3rd in the Peter Marsh on Heavy

SMOOTH STEPPER has 15 chase runs
A few more than ideal but acceptable
6th in last years race beaten 22 lengths
He has an extra run this season
And on his Racing Post Ratings
His last run was a career best
He has more than enough to shortlist
His trainer is worried about the ground
But he’s won 3 times here on soft ground

BAYWING is 9 and has 7 Chase runs
There is nothing wrong with that
He is a great big strapping chaser
If you look at his Racing Post Chase ratings
He comes here with 151 147 figures
Comfortably clear of his 140 handicap mark
I think he has to be a positive
Even if a rating of 140 is hard to defy

If I run some Breeding stats
Sires who have bred winners
In the following circumstances

3m 5f or more
Class 2 or higher
Soft or heavy ground
Only 2 sires have had winners
These are Alflora and Winged Love

The 100/1 rank outsider qualifies
But only 2 other horses also pass
Baywing is sired by Winged Love
Smooth Stepper is sired by Alflora

Selection

£4.00 Win SMOOTH STEPPER 16/1

£5.00 Win BAYWING 10/1 [WON]

£1.00 Win HAINAN 7/1

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races