Today I am just quickly posting up a quick copy and paste
extract from our more comprehensive full member
message today. This is from the Future Betting Angles
message subsection.
This FBA section is a little regular extra for members
here that comes in addition to the daily racing analysis.
As the name implies this bit is focused on future
ante post racing.
Several Cheltenham Festival races get a mention.
Guy here is also doing a lot of Grand National
profiling research at the minute for full members
but I ducked posting that here as it makes less sense
to see just one day of it in isolation.
======================================================== FUTURE BETTING ANGLES The Saturday and Sundays cards Look ridiculously vibrant + classy I made the point the other day The midweek cards are rubbish The quality pushed to Saturday It comes at you so thick and fast Leaving little time to consider it That is designed and deliberate If you look at Oddschecker site And the Ante Post Racing page The markets open this weekend This simply makes your jaw drop Some of the weekend meetings Will be dependent on the weather Leopardstown has a 2 day fixture Top class full of Cheltenham horses This meeting is far from being safe They have a foul weather forecast Many horses running this weekend Are having final Cheltenham preps Buveau D'Air should be one of them He will be long odds on at Sandown But that meeting could be in doubt If we lose meetings at the weekend Many horses just like Buveau D'Air Will miss their Cheltenham prep runs Cheltenham Festival Tomorrow entries are published On the following Festival races Supreme Novice Hurdle - 99 entered Ballymore Novice Hurdle -139 entered Triumph Hurdle - 59 entered Albert Bartlet - 107 entered Pricewise Recently previews some races These are their idea of the best bets Rsa Chase Topofthegame 1pt win at 8-1 Arkle Chase Le Richebourg 1pt win at 7-1 The last time I did the Arkle Chase LE RICHEBOURG was my provisional selection I would agree with Pricewise here RSA Chase 3/1Santini 9/2 Delta Work 7/1 Topofthegame 14/1 Vindication 16/1 OKCorral 20/1 On The Blind Side 25/1 Mortal 25/1 Champagne Classic Paul Kealy in the Racing Post Weekender Has also covered this race this week Like Pricewise he selects Topofthegame TOP OF THE GAME may look obvious Has a chance but I still prefer others There are now 41 days to Cheltenham TOP OF THE GAME has not won a chase He has failed in all 3 of his chases so far So unless he runs quickly and he wins Then he will be a maiden over fences If as expected he does not run Then he faces another problem TOP OF THE GAME has 2 runs this season Look at the last 19 renewals 18 of the previous 19 winners Had at least 3 runs this season TOP OF THE GAME does not match this SANTINI has the same problem DELTA WORK has 3 runs this season Although as a 6yo he is not the best age Assuming none of these will run again The decision may be a statistical trade off Will DELTA ROCKS extra run this season Compensate for him being a 6yo When his two market rivals Santini and Top Of The Game Have raced just twice this season When just 1 of the last 9 winners did so There could be other options available The last time I looked at this race I liked SANTINI and DELTA WORK best Would be happy to bet both as a pair In two each way doubles with something Cheltenham Gold Cup Stuart Riley in The Racing Post Did a piece recent about Native River His argument Native River is not a likely winner As Gold Cup winners don't win again He says the last to do it Best Mate 2002 He states just 4 managed this in 50 years There is some merit in what he says NATIVE RIVER is around 13/2 on Betfair I have already backed him as a saver bet I'm happy with that position right now Have the option to upgraded him to a bet Have the option to choose something else Unless the ground is really soft I probably will choose something else Although "Good Ground" is unlikely It could happen if it dries out that week He has never won a chase outside soft There just feels like this is a year Where we could get quite a big field There are a lot of improvers in there NATIVE RIVERS win in the 2018 Gold Cup Was a slog on very bad ground If conditions are different this year He may find some have overtaken him The Previous 22 Gold Cup winners Had the following career chase runs 12 9 18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11 NATIVE RIVER has 15 Chase runs 21 of the last 23 Gold Cup winners Had under 15 previous chase runs So he will not be the snuggest fit Staying with last years race ROAD TO RESPECT was 4th I gave him every chance in 2018 But did not select him for 1 reason I was concerned about his stamina He was beaten 12 lengths on soft If the ground is faster this season I could easily go with him this year I have read a few arguments for him People that I quietly follow on twitter That I think can teach me something One person I follow is all over him There is 1 complication ROAD TO RESPECT runs Sunday Favourite for the Irish Gold Cup We don't know if the meeting will be on If it is and he wins he will half in price If it is and he loses he will appeal less Right now he's certainly on my shortlist
Posted under Major Horse Races
This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on January 31, 2019