The Lincoln Handicap as a large field size handicap
is often a bit of a nightmare to assess.

The Lincoln however is usually a welcome sight
as it indicates the start of the new flat season.

The extract below is taken from our full Member message
of Sunday March 24th.

Those of you self thinkers who prefer to select your own
horses may find the researched stats below of some assistance
in narrowing down your personal shortlist.

If on the other hand you are more so a boss type
who prefers to pay slave wages and get someone else to
do all the hard work feel free to gather a few coppers together
to drum up £3 for our Saturday Service this week.

The Saturday message will cover the Lincoln and more.

=====================================

Ante Post Statistics Lincoln Handicap

Next Saturday ( March 29th )

 

9/2 Auxerre 10/1 Kynren 12/1 Ripp Orf 12/1 Humbert
14/1 Ibraz 16/1 Lord Oberon 16/1 Ledham 16/1 Zwayyan
16/1 South Seas 16/1 Mizaah 20/1 Chilean 20/1 Chiefofchiefs
20/1 Qaysar 20/1 Qaroun 20/1 Safe Voyage 20/1 Hathal
20/1 Silver Quartz 20/1 Battered 25/1 Ballard Down
25/1 Aquarium 25/1 Beringer 25/1 Breden 25/1 Remarkable
25/1 Salute The Soldier 25/1 Gabrial 25/1 Third Time Lucky
33/1 Masham Star 33/1 Book of Dreams 33/1 Chatez
33/1 Circus Couture 33/1 Dawaaleeb 33/1 Saltonstall
33/1 Exec Chef 33/1 Great Prospector 33/1 Al Jellaby
33/1 Sods Law 33/1 Wahash 33/1 Waarif 33/1 Another Batt
33/1 Isomer 40/1 Monoxide 40/1 Calling Out 40/1 Protected Guest
40/1 Raydiance 40/1 Rise Hall 40/1 Gulf Of Poets 40/1 Ventura Knight
40/1 Medieval 40/1 Borderforce 40/1 Prevent 40/1 Brian The Snail
40/1 Petrus 40/1 Calvados Spirit 40/1 Dragon Mall 50/1 Fake News
50/1 Delph Crescent 50/1 Fayez 50/1 Gossiping 50/1 Apex King
50/1 Starlight Romance 50/1 Weld Al Emarat 50/1 Pastime
50/1 Rampant Lion 50/1 Crownthorpe 50/1 Robsdelight
50/1 Sands Chorus 50/1 Detachment

 

 

Monday there is an entry stage
The above field will get reduced
Declarations coming on Thursday
When we will see the final field

A Class 2 Handicap over a Mile

Last 3 winners were 4 year olds
4yo’s have won 9 of the last 14

 

Your 4yo should be Male
Ideally have between 4 and 20 starts
Should be a seasonal debutant
But not absent over 7 months
Not coming from a 3yo handicap

 

Stay with horses aged 4-5-6
Horses aged 7 or more since 1999
Have an overall 0-67 record

 

Horses with under 4 career runs
Have a 0-13 record in this race

 

Go back to the 2000 renewal
Horses with 9st 5lbs or more
Have a poor 1-57 record

 

Apprentice Jockeys had a 1-82 record
5lbs and 7lbs claimers are 0-43

 

18 of the last 19 winners
Came from Class 2-3 races
None came from Class 4-5-6

 

Horses from Listed/Group races
Have a poor overall 1-72 record
In the last 14 years they were 0-51

 

The Draw is often guesswork
The last 3 winners drawn 10 15 20 22

Go back to 2001
Doncaster races over a Mile
Any kind of race any time of year
Horses Aged 5 or more
Drawn 17 or higher have a 0-139 record

 

12 renewals since 2005
11 of the 12 winners rated between 95-105
The last 5 winners rated 99 102 100 100 100

 

No horse has won absent 239 + days
None won absent over 211 days since 2002

 

Horses that came from 9f or more
Won 7 of the previous 13 renewals
Of which 3 came via a Cambridgeshire

 

 

AUXERRE is the favourite
He has been consistently backed

He is a 4yo seasonal debutant
We have seen 9 of these win recently
They had 7 11 4 14 6 5 15 12 5 runs

AUXERRE has just 4 runs
The 2005 winner Stream Of Gold
Did have the same profile as him
But that was quite a long time ago

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

Guy has a strong record in this race over the past ten years.
Highlights would include.

2014 – On His Own ew @ 22/1 2nd by a nose
2012 – Synchronised WON 10/1
2011 – Long Run WON 5/1
2010 – Imperial Commander WON 12/1
2008 – Denman WON 9/4

Account for some losers and breakeven
placed ew bets on other years and the long term net
big picture is pretty strong.

So what does he have for you this year?

Quite a long odds specualtive one this year it happens.

Good luck should you decide to follow.

================================================

Cheltenham 3.30

4/1 Native River, 9/2 Clan Des Obeaux, 9/2 Presenting Percy,
8/1 Bellshill, 9/1 Kemboy, 14/1 Al Boum Photo, Thistlecrack,
16/1 Might Bite, 20/1 Bristol De Mai, 20/1 Elegant Escape,
25/1 Anibale Fly, Shattered Love, 33/1 Invitation Only,
40/1 Definitly Red, 100/1 Double Shuffle, Yala Enki.

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Number of Chase runs

23 Yala Enki
21 Bristol De Mai
20 Double Shuffle
18 Definitly Red
15 Native River
14 Anibale Fly
13 Might Bite
13 Clan Des Obeaux
11 Elegant Escape
11 Shattered Love
9 Invitation Only,
9 Bellshill
8 Thistlecrack
8 Kemboy
7 Al Boum Photo
5 Presenting Percy

17 of the 19 winners
Shared the following profile

1) Under 10 years old
2) Under 15 Chase runs
3) Absent more than 4 weeks
4) Coming from a Graded race
5) Starting under 10/1 last time
6) Under 21 lifetime runs
7) Starting 20/1 or shorter

Horses with this profile

PRESENTING PERCY
SHATTERED LOVE
ELEGANT ESCAPE
KEMBOY

Thats an interesting shortlist

AL BOUM PHOTO is not first choice
Firstly Ruby Walsh has rejected him
He has raced just once this season
Previous Gold Cup winners aged 7
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
Worried about a 7yo with just 1 run
His sire hasn’t had a winner over this far

The Previous 23 Gold Cup winners
Had the following career chase runs

12 9 18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11
12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

21 of the 23 last Gold Cup winners
Had under 15 previous chase runs
BRISTOL DE MAI is a bit too exposed
DEFINITLY RED has the same problem

Horses aged 10 or more
Score very badly these days
They are 0-75 since 1999
They are 1-104 since 1992

THISTLECRACK is too old Aged 11
Has not won a race since 2016
MIGHT BITE is rejected aged 10
Flopped on his two runs this season

CLAN DES OBEAUX is improving
He has had a very impressive season
I have two problems with his chance
Horses running in the Gold Cup
Running in the previous 32 days
Have a 0-63 record since 1997

CLAN DES OBEAUX ran 27 days ago
His Denman Chase win is a concern
Will this race come too quickly
Has a stamina problem as well
Horses sired by Kapgarde
Running in Listed and Graded races
Racing over 3m 1f and more
Have a 0-15 record so far
Improving and could easily win
But the above issues make me nervous

ANIBALE FLY shares a similar problem
Horses running in the Gold Cup
Running in the previous 32 days
Have a 0-63 record since 1997
The last 17 winners of this race
Had won a Grade 1 race and he hasn’t
He has had 22 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts

KEMBOY is a 7 year old
Long been on my shortlist for this
But there are 3 factors against him
But Past 7yo Gold Cup winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
Kemboy has raced only twice
Sire has had no wins yet over 3m 2f +
Not so bothered about that argument
But Ruby Walsh has turned him down
For him to win Walsh has to be wrong

NATIVE RIVER

15 Chase starts is forgivable
But he has had 23 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts

He did win the race last season
Only 4 of the last 50 winners
Followed up and won this again
Will one or two improve past him
The stableform another problem

PRESENTING PERCY

Made the original Shortlist
But that avoided his main problem
Not run over fences in 12 months
Many say he is the second coming
Obviously high class and fancied
Nobody really knows how he will run
But his profile is too extreme for me

BELLSHILL

Always looked promising for this
His 9 Chase runs is good
21 lifetime runs is about the maximum
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts
But Ruby Walsh has chosen him

INVITATION ONLY is an 8yo
High class horse on his day
But he comes from a handicap
He is low down the stable pecking order
Ruby Walsh has rejected him
He is 0-4 in his Grade 1 races so far

ELEGANT ESCAPE

Surprisingly good positives
Made the original shortlist of 4
Sired by Dubai Destination worries me
Flat bred and I can’t have the pedigree
But I can be a sire snob in these matters
I said the same before the Welsh National

That was an astonishing performance
The 3 horses winning that with 11st 6lbs +
All went on to win a Cheltenham Gold Cup
He has defied his pedigree before
Can’t be ruled out with 11 chase runs
But Colin Tizzards horses are very flat
His run after Chepstow was decent
Race came soon enough after Chepstow
Very hard to come out of that race
Within the next month and win any race
And second to Frodon looks good now
I like that he made my original shortlist
We get 20/1 to compensate for negatives
The top of which would be the stableform

INVITATION ONLY won the Thyestes
Beat Alpha Des Obeaux that day
Next day in Future Betting Angles
Said I had a small bet at 50/1 to win this

SHATTERED LOVE is a mare
No reason at all why that is an issue
Intriguing she made my first shortlist
Official Ratings have her way behind
But she is a huge price to compensate
And her form can be upgraded
Cheltenham Festival winner last year
Fairyhouse came too soon for her next
Only a couple of weeks after Cheltenham
Went to the well too often at Punchestown
Those April races last season
Were her 7th and 8th run of the season
Not easy to see her as over the top
This year a much lighter campaign
Obviously it is a leap of faith
But I think she is underestimated

Astonishing race
Deep strength in depth

Think we have to stay
With the lighter raced profiles
And not be afraid of big prices
Which is why I am going with value

£2.25 Each Way SHATTERED LOVE 25/1

£2.25 Each Way INVITATION ONLY 33/1

£1.00 Win Bet ELEGANT ESCAPE 18/1

———————————

PS Odds above were rough average market odds
when this was sent out to full members earlier this morning.
Do your best to hunt around for best prices at the time toy bet yourself.
You may even find higher than the above in spots.

Note most bookies are offering 4 places.

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

Just a few advance researched stats for
you for Saturday’s Imperial Cup at Sandown.

Phase 1 stuff I would deem these.

They are primarily all about
identifying elements of form
that have historically produced
either positive or negative effect.

Phase 2 then would be a later secondary
stage where actual runners are assessed
against such positive and negative trends.

Phase 3 is then attempting to interpret it all
to try and find value in the market. Phase 3 is
normally finalised on the morning of the race
once runners and going are more fully defined.

There is no miracle system.

More so hard work and effort at research
can help one make more consistently
accurate decisions about winners, losers and value.

 

 

 

Saturday Sandown 2.25pm

Imperial Cup Race Statistics

 

The last 20 winners of this race
All ran within the previous 92 days

Past winners of this race
Had the following hurdle runs
15 4 5 4 4 19 8 6 5 3 3 9

An exposed winner last year
Normally winners have <10 hurdle runs

Recent winners of this race
Had the following runs that year
4 8 5 8 4 8 3 6 6 3 3 8

None have won with 0-1-2 runs

Horses aged 7 or more
Have a 4-145 record since 2001
All 4 of these winners aged 7 +
Carried 10st 5lbs or less weight
Horses aged 7 or older
Who carry 10st 6lbs or more
Have a 0-94 record in this
Horses aged 7 or more
Absent more than 6 weeks
Have a 0-42 record in this race

The last 16 winners of this race
Had never won more than twice before

Since the 2009 renewal
Horses from Novice or Maiden Hurdles
Have a 0-34 record in this handicap

Since 2001
Horses from Handicap Hurdles
9 or more previous hurdle runs
Have a 1-118 record in this race
That sole winner was last season

Horses with 11st 3lbs or more
Have a 0-55 record in this since 2004

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races