Several have asked how the message for the private members service differs from that which we post on the free blog here at about 1pm each Saturday.

This is best answered by example I guess.

On Saturday October 1st 2011 we posted here a snippet from the full message.

See said blog post at this link ==> http://www.horse-betting-blog.co.uk/horse-racing-tips/another-newmarket-winner/

( Art History the free tip Won )

Below however I have copied for you the much longer and detailed messages Full
Members received.

This is exactly as sent..spelling mistakes and all.

I have however added results for the races discussed in red.

It is also worth pointing out that full members get sent their message about 1hr before a free selection gets posted on horse betting blog here as we want to give them a fair chance to pick off any good early morning prices.

If you would like to join the service proper please visit

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

We do offer a very simple no quibble refund guarantee if you later change your mind.

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Mathematician 1075

No Strong Bet Today

T o d a y ‘s S e l e c t i o n

Ascot 5.00

ELSHABAKIYA 16/1

Each Way

2nd at 16/1 landing each way winnings

One bet today chosen from several options. We had

a 16/1 winner last Saturday and I have decided to go

with another big priced horse. A Day with too many

options really. It’s been a very good week. I thought

about an each way double Blanche Dubawi 5.20 with

Dubai Queen who runs in ELSHABAKIYA’s race but

I decided to go with the bigger prices and commit to

ELSHABAKIYA as I did have multile options there.

She is the riskiest best of my portfolio but also offers

us the most reward so I will take a chance at 16/1.

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Message Thoughts and Potential Bets

Most of the message is at Ascot and Newmarket as

I felt they offered the best angles. There are plenty

of races that throw up some interesting angles with

potential bets. Not all of these are welcome or bets

I’d want to have. These are all summarised below.

Newmarket 3.35 – ART HISTORY 5/1 Each Way Won

Ascot 3.50 – PASTORAL PLAYER 8/1 Each Way Won

Redcar 4.00 – BOGART 6/1 Won

Ascot 5.00 – ELSHABAKIYA 20/1 2nd

Ascot 5.00 – DUBAI QUEEN 4/1 Lost

Newmarket 5.20 – BLANCHE DUBAWI 3/1 Win Won

REDCAR

Poor card. Ignore almost all of it but I do have one

really interesting Draw stat in the 4pm race. There

is a warm favourite in Bannock heavily backed and

dominating the betting. Fascinating to see that He’s

drawn in Stall 22. I looked at every Redcar race in

the last 11 years. Thats every distance and all type

of races. There are 831 of these races and not once

has a horse won from Stall 21 or higher in any race.

I explained a bit more below but because of this and

a couple of other factors I am opposing him and I’d

look at Bogart as the sensible bet each way.

NEWMARKET

There are 5 previews at Newmarket today including

3 shorter priced horses. Not bothered about minnows

so ignoring those much as ENCKE (4.10) looks like

the strongest. I have two bigger priced options here.

Not convinced I should trust a Mark Johnston horse

up in trip but ART HISTORY is the only horse that

has a solid profile in the 3.35pm and he looks good

each way. The Boadecia Stakes at 5.20pm is not my

kind of race but my angles say BLANCHE DUBAWI

has by far the safest profile and looks one to consider.

ASCOT

Five previews at Ascot. I’ve chances in the opening

two races both competetive though. I’ve thrown my

best angles at a very hard 3.50pm handicap and the

end result was PASTORAL PLAYER 8/1 who could

well win this if he can stay the distance. The 5pm is

a race I always do well in. Some strong angles always

give me the winner on a shortlist. There are times I

have chosen wrongly from that shortlist and today’s

choice is difficult I have chosen ELSHABAKIYA at

16/1 as a horse I have to bet and DUBAI QUEEN as

the main selecton in that race as explained below.

T h u r s d a y ‘s M e s s a g e

Quiet day yesterday. Kept it low key knowing their

wasn’t much choice. My mentions didnt win and the

decision to go with low stakes was right especially as

Ascot got the better of me which I feared it might.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S

N e w m a r k e t 1.50

6/4 Mizwaaj, 13/8 Campanology, 11/2 Al Wajba

10/1 Sheikh The Reins, 12/1 Switzerland, 33/1 Conowen

40/1 Papal Power.

This is a 6f Maiden for 2 year olds. I would happily ignore

the unraced SWITZERLAND and AL WAJBA as well as a

well beaten SHEIKH THE REINS and all the outsiders not

because they have bad profiles but because there are 2 here

with a seriou profiles. CAMPANOLOGY and MIZWAAJ

come from 7f Conditions races within the last month. All

horses with that profile had a brilliant 10-19 record and if you

chuck out horses at 12/1 and more that improves this

profile to a 10-12 record with all 12 getting placed. We do

have to choose between them. MIZWAAJ is lighter raced

but statistically that doesnt matter much. Its foolish to be assessing

CAMPANOLOGY as a maiden as he has already

won a race but was disqualified.

Its a close match with both looking decent. Marginal preference for CAMPANOLOGY.

Selection – CAMPANOLOGY 11/8 Won

A s c o t 2.05

4/1 Caledonia Lady, 5/1 My Propeller, 5/1 Stonefield Flyer

7/1 Hestian, 12/1 Rex Imperator, 14/1 Forevertheoptimist

14/1 Hexagonal, 16/1 Ponty Acclaim, 16/1 Pyman´s Theory

16/1 Royal Award, 20/1 Chunky Diamond, 25/1 Fanrouge

25/1 Miss Lahar, 40/1 Church Music, 50/1 Betty Fontaine

50/1 Signifer.

* The Cornwallis Stakes is a Group 3 race for 2yo’s over 5f.

* Ascot has 16 renewals of this race

* This is the only similar race at this time of year.

* The following Stats have worked out in this race

* All 26 horses that came via handicaps lost

* Horses beaten over 6 lengths last time were 0-48

* No maiden won this race

* No horse was absent more than 10 weeks

* Horses absent over a Month need to be Males

* They need to have under 6 runs

* Horses from 6f races all had 5 + runs

* No winners came down from 7f or more

* REX IMPERATOR – Wrong from 7f

* HESTIAN – Wrong from a handicap and draw not ideal

* MY PROPELLER has some statistical problems

* The only filly to win from 6f has far more runs

* That horse had ran much better last time than her

* In fact all 16 past winners ran better than her last time

* STONEFIELD FLYER has a long absence

* Horses absent a month from 5f races struggled

* None had 4 or more career runs like he does

* Stall 16 may not be helpfull either

* HEXAGONAL – respected from a good trial race

* His only flaw is all past winners had won before

* HEXAGONAL hasnt managed that. Respected

B e s t P r o f i l e

* CALEDONIA LADY looks good

* She ran in the Flying Childers as did many past winners

* She won the Roseberry Stakes at Ayr last time out

* That puts her very close to 2006 winner Alzerra

* CALEDONIA LADY has a good profile 3rd

N e w m a r k e t 2.25

10/11 Samitar, 11/2 Hazel Lavery, 10/1 Coplow

10/1 Wahylah, 14/1 Arsaadi, Buzkashi, 20/1 Aniseed

20/1 Glee, 25/1 Lost Highway, 33/1 Lemon Rock

33/1 Perfect Delight, 33/1 Roedean, 33/1 Soho Rocks

33/1 Tina´s Spirit, 50/1 Princess Caetani, Symphony Star

66/1 Party Line, 200/1 Itsonlymakebelieve.

This is a Fillies Trophy for 2 year olds over 7f. There are 25

Similar Class 2 races and my observations of these are below.

* In terms of the draw it looks quite complicated

* I think the Worst Draws are 15-16-17-18

* I’d avoid horses with 7 or more starts

* I’d avoid all horses beaten 6 or more lengths last time.

* Not much I can say really

* HAZEL LAVERY comes from a 7f Conditions race

* All 20 horses doing that lost

* COPLOW – ARSAADI have the same problems

* WAHYLAH looks shortlistable

* SAMITAR clearly sets the standard

* She was 2nd in a Group 1 only 7 days ago

* No horse has tried to win with her profile

* She will either outclass these on form

* Or the race will come too soon and she wont perform

* Thats impossible to know so we have to guess

* I think SAMITAR has the strongest chance

* Putting his chance into perspective

* She’s a similar price to Encke in the Maiden at 4.10

* I’d much rather bet Encke myself

* SAMITAR is still the selection though Won

A s c o t 2.40

2/1 Arctic Cosmos, 11/4 Lost In The Moment

7/2 Quest For Peace, 10/1 City Leader, 11/1 Nanton

16/1 Ted Spread, 16/1 Yaseer.

No real interest in the Cumberland Lodge stakes a poor

statistics race. ARCTIC COSMOS is well clear on ratings

but he hasnt ran in 385 days. Seasonal debutants struggled

in this and all similar races the only winner different than him.

I would be nervous about that profile. I am opposing him.

QUEST FOR PEACE looks unsafe with his absence as a lightly raced horse.

CITY LEADER doesnt look a fit profile. YASEER was well beaten last time

and I cant find a winner like him but his trainer has a 5-6 record in this race

so I erespect him. There is one horse I wanted to be with against the favourite.

LOST IN THE MOMENT is from the Ebor handicap and the 2006 winner

did exactly the same aged 4 and LOST IN THE MOMENT carried a

lot more weight as well and that makes him my choice.

Selection – LOST IN THE MOMENT Lost

N e w m a r k e t 3.35

11/4 Jameel, 11/2 Art History, 6/1 Topolski

13/2 Butler, 8/1 Incendo, 8/1 Warlu Way, 9/1 Greylami

16/1 The Betchworth Kid, 20/1 Red Anthem

25/1 Big Creek, 25/1 Itlaaq.

* This is a 12f Handicap for 0-100 rated horses

* There are 53 similar races at this time of year

* JAMEEL is very lightly raced

* We had 2 winners like him from Maidens

* Both came from 12f and he comes from 10f

* Neither had 1-2 runs that season

* I looked at 3 year olds from 10f races

* Those like JAMEEL with under 7 runs were 0-23

* Those like JAMEEL with under 7 that year were 0-22

* JAMEEL does have flaws in his profile

* TOPOLSKI had a superb season over hurdles last year

* He won all 3 and now returns back to the flat

* Long absence and I am far from convinced about him

* Horses like him score poorly and this is a hot race

* His connections say he is only 90% fit

* ITLAAQ and BIG CREEK didnt do enough last time

* RED ANTHEM may need more runs

* THE BETCHWORTH KID has been absent too long

* No exposed horse won without 7 + runs that season

* GREYLAMI fails that and looks short of runs

* INCENDO also fails that with 6 runs

* INCENDO is exposed and hasnt run in 2 weeks

* Similar horses struggled with a 2-91 record

* Both had more backclass and came from better races

* INCENDO didnt really do much for me

P o s s i b l e s

* BUTLER is 4 and well beaten over 12f last time

* WARNES WAY has the same problem

* Neither come out well on their latest starts

* I looked at horses aged 4 well beaten last time

* These horses score badly but there is hope there

* Last years winner of this overcame a similar problem

* If either bounce back they could be a threat

* Results show not many 4 year olds like them have

* Last years winner had a recent race

* Both horses have been absent over a Month

* I looked at horses aged 4 absent over a Month

* Those with 9 + runs had a 1-40 record

* That horse won down from the 14f Ebor

* BUTLER – WARNES WAY just come up short

S e l e c t i o n

* ART HISTORY is 3 and won at 10f last time

* I found 2 similar winners who were a close match

* ART HISTORY is a positive

* ART HISTORY Each Way 11/2 looks a solid bet Won

A s c o t 3.50

6/1 Smarty Socks,9/1 Hawkeyethenoo 10/1 Decent Fella

10/1 Golden Desert, 10/1 Pastoral Player 12/1 Joe Packet

Webbow, 14/1 Casual Glimpse Nasri 16/1 Imperial Guest

20/1 Atlantic Sport 20/1 Dream Eater, Parisian Pyramid

20/1 The Cheka 25/1 Al Khaleej, 33/1 Below Zero.

* This is a 7f handicap for horses rated 0-110

* Ascot has had 14 renewals of this race

* There has been 63 Similar races at other tracks

* The Draw should play some part in this race

* Looking at all similar races here over recent years

* I think the Draws to avoid are 1-2-3-4

* I would much rather have a higher draw

* I suspect Stalls 5 to 12 will be the ideal place to be

* Horses from 6f won 8 of the 68 races

* BELOW ZERO comes out badly from 6f

* No 3yo as exposed as him has won from 6f

* Exposed horses from 6f races had a poor 2-96 record

* They all had at least 5 runs that season

* HAWKEYETHENOO fails that with 4

* No Exposed horse from 6f lost by 4 + lengths last time

* HAWKEYETHENOO fails that

* If you take the 30 exposed winners

* Those with 1-2-3-4-5 runs that season were 0-45

* HAWKEYETHENOO fails that and is rejected

* PARISIAN PYRAMID also fails that

* IMPERIAL GUEST is exposed and from 6f

* Similar horses were 2-96 but none from a Conditions race

* ATLANTIC SPORT has the same problem

* None of the winners were aged 8 or more

* WEBBOW doesnt appeal as a 9 year old

* Not with a Months absence

* DREAM EATER is exposed and comes from an 8f race

* All similar winners had at least 7 runs that season

* DREAM EATER only has 4 runs and looks underraced

* If you take the 30 exposed winners

* Those with 1-2-3-4-5 runs that season were 0-45

* DREAM EATER fails that and is rejected

* Only 2 winners were aged 7 or more (2-52)

* None of these had more than 8st 12lbs

* SMARTY SOCKS fails that

* None won last time like SMARTY SOCKS

* SMARTY SOCKS has a career high mark and looks unsafe

* GOLDEN DESERT has a similar profile

* He is 7 and won a recent 7f race

* Horses winning within the past 2 weeks struggled

* Those with 13 or more career starts were 0-19

* GOLDEN DESERT fails that and isnt well drawn

* SMARTY SOCKS fails that statistic as well

* AL KHALEEJ is 7yo and we know these are 2-52

* None won with under 9 runs that season

* AL KHALEEJ only has 4 runs this year

* AL KHALEEJ looks underraced this year for his age

* JOE PACKET has a bad draw in Stall 2

* I find him unimpressive from a Listed race

* Very few winners come from Listed or Group races

* None did it as exposed as he is

* THE CHEKA is 5 and comes from 5f

* None of the horses that won like that had his weight

* None came from a Group race either

* Horses from Group races are unsafe and so is he

* CASUAL GLIMPSE is the only 3 year old

* Horses aged 3 with Listed or Group form before are 1-109

* That suggests he is the wrong type of 3yo

* Horses aged 3 from 8f races were just 2-67

* Those like him with 9 + runs were 0-35

* CASUAL GLIMPSE does not offer me enough

* DECENT FELLA is an unexposed 5yo

* Horses like that in 63 races were 0-32

* Thats a worry and DECENT FELLA is badly drawn

* He won a 7f handicap time and is absent 2 + weeks

* Horses with that profile were 1-29

* That winner was younger and different

* DECENT FELLA has a shaky profile

* NASRI is an exposed horse who won at 6f last time

* I found 1 similar winning at a different track

* I see him as a possible but not convinced with Stall 18

* He also comes from a 6f Conditions race

* No winners did that and he just fails to make the grade

Selection

* PASTORAL PLAYER is 4 and comes from a 6f race

* There were 2 winners doing that

* Both had Group 3 form and 13-20 runs like him

* PASTORAL PLAYER is therefore reasonable

* None like him won this race but two won elsewhere

* PASTORAL PLAYER could win this if he gets the 7f

PASTORAL PLAYER 8/1 Each Way Won

R e d c a r 4.00

2/1 Bannock, 5/1 Bogart, 9/1 Silverheels, 12/1 Excelette

12/1 Gold City, 14/1 Bear Behind, 14/1 Bop It

16/1 Place In My Heart, 20/1 Fulbright, 20/1 Imelda Mayhem

20/1 North Star Boy, 25/1 Bling King, 25/1 Parc De Launay

25/1 Vital Gold, 33/1 Es Que Love, 33/1 Evervescent

33/1 Free Zone, 33/1 Kool Henry, 50/1 Cockney Fire

50/1 Hidden Passion, 50/1 Jack Who´s He, 50/1 Monnoyer

66/1 The Penny Horse.

This is a Listed race for 2 year olds over 6f. Clearly hard

as ever to sort out. I want to oppose BANNOCK here and

have a variety of reasons to do this statistically and not.

* He has a 64 day absence which wont be easy to overcome

* In all similar races no horses overcae that when so well raced

* His Trainer has stated “He has missed work” due to a setback

* He has said he “might need the race” which must hurt him

* Maybe my best angle is that he is drawn in Stall 22

* One very interesting Statistic about the draw

* Since 2000 Redcar have had 831 races

* Thats every race any time of year at Every Distance

* Horses drawn 20 or higher were 1-94

* Horses drawn 21 or more were 0-45

* No horse has ever won a Redcar race drawn 21 +

* Not since 2000 anyway

* BANNOCK therefore has to be opposed

* I’d want an alternative

* BEAR BEHIND has the same problems with the draw

* BOP IT has a nasty absence

* No horse came from a Nursery absent as long as her

* PLACE IN MY HEART – Unsafe from 5f Auction maiden

* BOGART looks the solid each way bet

* I like him more than any others

Selection

BOGART 6/1 Each Way Won

N e w m a r k e t 4.10

10/11 Encke, 9/2 Good Morning Star, 9/2 Sadma

13/2 Commitment, 14/1 Valiant Girl, 14/1 Venegazzu

20/1 Sunley Pride, 25/1 Attraction Ticket, 25/1 Lazeez

25/1 Leitrim King, 33/1 Renegotiate, 66/1 Harry Buckle.

This is a 2yo Maiden over a Mile. I have looked at over

400 similar races at this time of year. The big negatives

are GOOD MORNING STAR and SUNLEY PRIDE as if

you look at horses beaten 10 + lengths last time out who

ran within 2 weeks you find a horrible 8-527 record and

those like GOOD MORNING STAR fillies had a 0-108

record. The choice may be between ENCKE and any of

the unraced horses like SADMU or COMMITMENT. I

see ENCKE as very likely to win having debuted well in

a hot maiden at Doncaster. With normal improvement

I would expect him to win a maiden like this one.

Selection – ENCKE Won

Bit of a Break now before the next preview. I have not

done the 4.35pm Seller at Redcar. If you want a bet on

a match bet I see SINATRAMANIA as a very good bet

to beat Pursuing in the match bet because I doubt fitness

of the latter and I see SINATRAMANIA as the winner.

2nd at 6/1 winning the match bet against Pursuing

A s c o t 5.00

9/4 Rainfall, 5/1 Marvada, 11/2 Dubai Queen

15/2 Flambeau, 17/2 Sharnberry 11/1 Crying Lightening

16/1 Elshabakiya 20/1 Theladyinquestion 25/1 Perfect Silence.

* The October Stakes is a fillies Listed race over 7f

* There has been 10 renewals of this race

* The winners of this race all fit similar patterns

* All 10 winners were 3 year olds (others 0-38)

* All 10 winners had under 10 career runs (others 0-70)

* The 10 winners had 8-5-8-3-7-5-9-8-7-6 previous races

* No past winner lost by 6 + lengths last time

* No past winner won last time out

* The 10 winners came from 6f-7f-8f in Class 3 or higher

* All 10 winners had 1 or 2 career wins

* This leaves 2 horses passing all the above angles

* ELSHABAKIYA – DUBAI QUEEN

* There are 24 similar Listed races elsewhere

* Exposed horses have a 0-37 record in these races

* PERFECT SILENCE fails that

* RAINFALL didnt appeal with just 2 runs this year

* Horses wih 1-2 runs that year and 5 + career runs were 0-31

* RAINFALL fails that

* She has 2 runs this year yet is 5 and well raced

* FLAMBEAU is 4 and has 10 career starts

* Horses aged 4 with 9 + runs were 1-59

* That horse had more runs this season than she does

* That winner also had Group 1 form as well and she doesnt

* THELADYINQUESTION lacks backclass for her profile

* She also loks underraced this year

* CRYING LIGHTENING only has 1 run since April

* She may be short of condition

* MARVADA – Minor flaws I see as forgiveable

* I would shortlist her but I have 3 others on the list

S h o r t l i s t

* SHARNBERRY – Good profile and respected

* ELSHABAKIYA – Sails through my strongest angles

* DUBAI QUEEN – Sails through my strongest angles

* DUBAI QUEEN is the obvious selection

* ELSHABAKIYA is too big a price to ignore

* Not keen DUBAI QUEEN is drawn 1

* Not keen ELSHABAKIYA is drawn 11

* With 11 runners I’d prefer a middle draw

* SHARNBERRY has the best draw of all of these

* She also has the most to prove as well

* The potential to choose wrong here is high

SELECTION

I have gone with ELSHABAKIYA.

2nd at 16/1 SP

N e w m a r k e t 5.20

11/4 Blanche Dubawi, 4/1 Rose Blossom, 11/2 Cochabamba

6/1 Sandslash, 8/1 Aneedah, 8/1 Anne Of Kiev

14/1 Gossamer Seed, Misplaced Fortune, 16/1 Amitola

25/1 Button Moon, 25/1 Ziraun.

* This is a Listed race over 6f for fillies

* There are only 8 past renewals of this race

* With no similar races we are in the Dark

* No winners were aged 6 or more

* No past winners had 21 or more career runs

* Every winner had at least 4 runs that season

* Every winner came from a Grade 1 track

* Every winner came from at least a Class 4 race

* None of the winners came from a 5f race

* This leaves 4 options

* COCHABAMBA – A little unsafe from 6f handicap

* ROSE BLOSSOM – The only 4yo winner had fewer runs

* GOSSAMER SEED – Impossible to read but basics are there

* BLANCHE DUBAWI has a smart profile

* 3 year olds are best and from Listed races

* Horses aged 3

* Coming from Listed Class Races

* At least 4 runs that season

* The following winners of this race had that profile

* 2010 2009 2008 2005 2004

* BLANCHE DUBAWI comes out best Won

A s c o t 5.35

7/2 Marygold, 9/2 Hot Sugar, 7/1 Sans Loi, 9/1 Forest Edge

9/1 Jack Of Diamonds, 10/1 Toffee Tart, 11/1 Little Rainbow

12/1 Golden Valley, 16/1 I´ll Be Good, 16/1 Our Cool Cat

16/1 Purley Queen, 20/1 Courtland Avenue, Kings Decree

20/1 Sheila´s Buddy, 25/1 Dream Whisperer

25/1 Our Phylli Vera, 28/1 Miss Conduct, Queen Of The Hop.

* This is a 2yo Conditions race over 6f
* There are only 12 similar races at this time of year

* I looked at every race over 6f here in 2011 with 11 + runners

* Winners were drawn 18 17 3 11 14 19 11

* I would be worried about very low drawn horses

* MARYGOLD doesnt look well drawn in stall 5

* I didnt like her anyway as horses from Nurseries are 2-94

* Both winners had more backclass than she does

* HOT SUGAR doesnt look well drawn either

* I´LL BE GOOD looks badly drawn as well

* It took him 9 runs to win a maiden 4 more than any other

* GOLDEN VALLEY also comes from a Nursery

* TOFFEE TART is badly drawn and from a Nursery

* JACK OF DIAMONDS comes from a 7f maiden

* No winners managed this

* I need to be right about the draw or I wont win

* SANS LOI drawn high looks the obvious play

* I’d like a shorter absence but overlooking that

* SANS LOI is my choice Lost

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Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips

 COUNTRYSIDE DAY MAIDEN HURDLE (CLASS 5) (4yo+) 2m110y

13/8 Carole´s Legacy, 5/2 Shoreacres, 5/1 Quidonc, Somersby, 13/2 Puerto Azul, 8/1 Uffa Fox, 33/1 Northern Lad, 100/1 CoolContender, Graham´s Girl, Lady Samantha, Sideon Arthur, Son Of Karinga.

SELECTION – SHOREACRES
 

This is a 2 mile maiden hurdle. Pretty Standard for this time of year and we have 6 possible winners and 6 no hopers so it looks quite sortable. I wanted to oppose CAROLE’S LEGACY in this.

She is a 4 year old filly. She is having her seasonal debut. She has ran just twice before and she comes from Bumpers and thats not an ideal mix as the following trends suggest

* Since 1992 there has been over 8000 Maiden And Novice Hurdles
* Thats any time of year – any distance – any course
* I looked for 4 year old fillies that came from Bumper races
* The record was just 7 winners from 396 runners
* When they had under 3 runs like CAROLE’S LEGACY
* That record became just 2-244 a strike rate of 0.82%
* Seasonal debutants that tried it like her were 0-81
* The record in Maiden hurdles like this were 0-48

I concede that CAROLE’S LEGACY – Unbeaten- Powerfully trained -with Listed Bumper form has to have a better chance than these trends suggest she has – but the bottom line for me is this. In the last 16 years you can not find a 4 year old filly that won any maiden or novice hurdle
with her profile and thats any distance any class and any time of year. Because of that and because she is short enough around 7/4 I am going to take her on with something that has a far better profile.

There has been 126 Maiden Hurdles between September and December over 2 mile trips. Only 1 of these races went to a 4 year old thats had 1 career start in a Bumper as SOMERSBY. The record was 1-26 and although he cant be a negative on that statistic not many win with the
profile he has and just 1 at this time of year and he wouldnt be my pick in the race. Neither would be PUERTO AZUL another 4 year old that has 3 runs in Bumpers and has yet to win one. QUIDONIC is really impossible to rate as a 4 year old with French Form. Strong stable and you couldnt rule him out but he doesnt smell strongly fancied and you
would have thought he would have been shorter in the betting if he came here with maximum confidence. I feel the same about UFFA FOX as well as whilst he has won a Graded Bumper he has flopped since and remains with a small yard and doesnt smell too fancied either. There is only one choice for me and that is S H O R E A C R E S

* SHOREACRES comes from the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham
* September to December has seen 2813 Novice and Maiden Hurdles
* Thats at any trip and any course in these 4 months
* I looked at horses that came from Grade 1 Bumpers
* When they had 2 or more runs and aged 5 or more they were 36-85
* Thats a 42% strike rate and 58 of the 85 winners won or placed
* The record in Maiden Hurdles was 4 wins from 7 runners

You cant say he is Bomb Proof but a horse coming from the Champion Bumper like SHOREACRES has a very strong profile and considering we know that no horse has won a remotely similar race anywhere with the profile of the favourite in the race I have to go with SHOREACRES.

Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips

Today’s Selection

Ayr 2.55

HOTHAM 9/1

AYR 2.55 – HBG PROPERTIES HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo+, 0-85) 5f

5/1 Highland Warrior, 11/2 Prince Namid, 6/1 Ice Planet, 7/1 Regal Royale, 9/1 Killer Class,
11/1 Divine Spirit, High Curragh, The Bear, 12/1 Charles Parnell, Hotham, Sandwith, 16/1 John Keats, The Nifty Fox.

This is a 5f sprint handicap for horses rated 0-82 with 20 past renewals of this race. Tougher than it usually is as all horses are experienced enough and have ran enough this year and none have absences. In a race that’s been full of shocks in the past and we don’t have any big negatives today. I would oppose all horses that had ran in Group races before like THE BEAR as all 40 that tried lost. I would take out the horses dropping from 7f or more like CHARLES PARNELL as none won. I would take out all horses that hadn’t won at the distance before like JOHN KEATS. It’s further complicated by the fact many ran in last year’s race. I think I would rather have a horse that ran within the last 2 weeks. The last 4 winners of this race all ran within the previous 7 days. In the last 20 renewals horses with 13 + career runs that didn’t race within a month had a 4-174 record which isn’t very good. I oppose HIGHLAND WARRIOR who was 4th in this last year. He’s the oldest horse yet has the longest absence. There has been 248 of these handicaps in September at all tracks. Look at horses aged 9 or more that didn’t run within 15 days and you find a 1-71 record. That shows HIGHLAND WARRIOR has a tough task. He has done very well to win 2 selling races and a 0-74 but this is tougher and his absence and age is a concern and I feel he will stop winning now and I have to oppose him today.

SANDWITH and HIGH CURRAGH are also exposed horses that haven’t ran within 2 weeks. SANDWITH won’t want the ground as bad as this and all his winning form is on better ground and he is 7lbs higher than his best previous win. You can also argue HIGH CURRAGH wants better ground and there has to be a doubt as to whether he wants 5f especially on this ground. DIVINE SPIRIT is another horse that hasn’t had a very recent race. He had a very recent run before winning this race last year and was on a roll then. Now he comes here without a recent run and off the back of a well beaten run last time much as the draw hurt him. I don’t think he is safe. I don’t want a horse that was beaten so badly as THE NIFTY FOX and I dislike his draw. You can also argue that he wants a smaller field as he is 0-26 in fields of 10 or more runners. It will be interesting to see if the only 3 year old KILLER CLASS runs after running yesterday. He was a bit unlucky yesterday but it was only a 0-68 and this is a 0-82. If you look at 3yo’s in this race they are not brilliant. In fact with 13 or more career starts they are 0-75 and that’s a worry. In 248 other races we know when 3 year olds have 21 or more runs they are 0-104 and although KILLER CLASS doesn’t fail that with 19 runs he is close and I looked at the 248 races for 3 year olds that had a very recent run within 4 days. They had a 0-18 record. Overall I would want to oppose him much as last day runners should never be taken lightly and it is an advantage. KILLER CLASS isn’t for me though.

ICE PLANET is about to win as he is so well handicapped but as he showed at Chester he really wants 6f and he may not get away with it here. This 5f is sharper than the 5f at Chester by almost 1 second and that won’t help him. He should be outpaced. He should be the fastest finisher. Quite whether he can finish well enough to win this is one of the more interesting issues in the race. My gut feeling is he will not be able to do that and he does look the stable second string behind PRINCE NAMID.

PRINCE NAMID last won 28 months ago and has lost all 28 times since then but he is well handicapped and will love conditions. Dandy Nicholls has just bought this horse in July. You have to argue it’s a serious upgrade in stable. He ran him 2 days ago where he must have needed the race after a 73 day absence. He ran well to be 3rd and I don’t doubt that Dandy Nicholls is a far better trainer for this horse but I have two worries. You can look at his recent form in two ways. Firstly will he bounce? He ran very well after a long absence and comes out very quickly and he must be a prime candidate to bounce.

The other side of that coin is whether two runs in almost 3 months is enough to guarantee
fitness on heavy ground over 5f. I would be very worried about that.

REGAL ROYALE is in flying form and at the top of his game. He likes the conditions but he is probably now at the limit of his ability. I would argue Metaphorically that whilst the water isn’t over his head in a race like this its “At his head” and in a 0-82 in a race like this he could possibly drown. I think he is a horse form Class 4 tracks and this could just be a bit above his pay grade.

SELECTION

HOTHAM

HOTHAM ran well last time on soft ground and on that run has to be given a massive chance. Whilst all his wins have come on faster ground he has plenty of soft ground form. He doesn’t seem to stay 6f on soft but he does handle soft ground at 5f. Bottom line he caught the eye last time at Doncaster staying on very late in a far better race than this 9 days ago. That’s makes him statistically perfect. That Doncaster race is a good trial race for this and it was soft that day and in another few yards he could have placed. On that form he must have an outstanding chance in this.
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Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips

Beverley 2.00

WICKED WILMA 9/1 +

If you want a saver in the race I would suggest Whozart. You may remember
I went with Wicked Wilma last time but didnt make her a Full Bet as she had
a dodgy draw. She ran well just behind Whozart and I left that race convinced
she would win soon. I want to make her a selection today as I feel I can find
several reasons why her opponents will not win this. She is drawn 15 and that
could be an advantage or disadvantage. We just do not know based on evidence
at Beverley this year. If low numbers are favoured then she will struggle like
the other fancied high numbers. If high numbers are favoured we are in business.

BEVERLEY 2:00 FIONA’S SIGNIFICANT BIRTHDAY HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-50) 5f

5/1 Dubai To Barnsley, Monte Major, Myriola, 6/1 Whozart, 7/1 Mormeatmic,
10/1 Missus Molly Brown, 14/1 Gelert, 16/1 Morristown Music, Wicked Wilma,
20/1 Head To Head, Miss Taboo, 25/1 Captain Turbot, Fan Club, The Cube,
33/1 Sunley Sovereign, 50/1 Height Of Esteem

This is a 5f handicap for 0-50 rated horses. Its an outrageously hard race and it will
not be easy to get the winner but the reason I preview it is WICKED WILMA who
was my selection the other day. I almost made her an account bet but I just prefered
Superior Star that day who won thankfully and because the draw put me off her. I
am adamant that WICKED WILMA will win soon and although I initially put a Line
through this race I looked at the first few in the market and found good reasons to
oppose them all and as she is a really tasty price I decided to go with WICKED WILMA.

* September has seen 95 of these 5f handicaps since 1992
* DUBAI TO BARNSLEY comes from a 3yo handicap
* Horses that came from 3yo handicaps over 5f last time were 1-65
* It’s a disadvantage taking on older horses and I want to oppose him
* MYRIOLA does the same thing and is also opposable
* She is too exposed for a 3 year old as well and I dont want her
* MONTE MAJOR is 0-20 on Grass and has no form on ground this bad
* I think he is from a fast ground sire and this may be a bit soft for him
* MORMEATIC only problems are the 35 day absence and middle draw
* On this ground I wouldnt want an absence like that
* You have to argue that whatever the draw advantage here its not stall 7
* I dont want MISSUS MOLLY BROWN a filly with 4 runs this year
* That doesnt look like a horse fit enough to win this
* Fillies with 5 + career star but under 5 runs that year were 1-103
* MORRISTOWN MUSIC has been absent 56 days and thats vile
* Since 1997 horses absent 7 weeks or more were 0-111
* None of the 95 winners went 20 or more runs without a win
* HEAD TO HEAD has done that and only comes from sellers
* MISS TABOO also fails that and is a filly with a 0-22 record
* She only comes from maiden and looks very beatable
* CAPTAIN TURBOT comes from a 3yo handicap
* Horses that did that with under 9 runs that year were 1-101
* Horses from 3yo handicaps that lost by 4 + lengths also struggled
* These horses had a 0-94 record and he is hard to fancy
* FAN CLUB has a 39 day breal which is certainly no advantage
* He has also never run at 5f before and that must hurt him
* HEIGHT OF ESTEEM surely cant be fit with 2 runs since August 07
* SUNLEY SOVEREIGN surely cant be fit with 1 run since September 07
* THE CUBE has a long break and has a 0-17 career record
* I think I have offered sound reasons why these horses may lose
* The race at HAMILTON 11 Days ago interests me
* WHOZART (2nd) GELERT (3rd) WICKED WILMA (6th)
* WHOZART looks to have a very solid chance in this
* GELERT must also have a chance and is respected
* Its WICKED WILMA that I like best
* She has a usefull weight pull with both Whozart and Gelert
* I think the draw hurt her last time at Hamilton
* At Beverley before that she again had the worst draw
* She was also out of the weights in a much better race than this
* She still ran really well and wasnt knocked about once beaten
* Her previous run at Catterick was also interesting
* That was in a slightly better class 0-60 contest
* She again had the worst draw but she finished really well in 4th
* The Racing Post suggested she was one to “Take out of the race”
* Have to agree with that as she finished very fast like a knife through butter
* She sould have been a fast finishing 3rd that day
* Before that at Thirsk she stumbled early losing all chance
* That left her marooned in the middle of the track
* She was away from all the advantaged horses and it was a 0-72
* She was badly drawn before that at Ayr and hampered again
* She started the season rated 66 and is now down to 49
* She would have won at Musselburgh were it not for overweight
* WICKED WILMA is a very interesting bet today

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Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips

Mathematician 155

Friday 29th August

1 Account Bet

Todays Account Bet

Hamilton 4.15

SUPERIOR STAR

£50 Each Way 8/1

£100 Staked on the Day

SUPERIOR STAR is 8/1 with Hills -s james-betdirect – Tote
SUPERIOR STAR is 15/2 with Blue Square -Corals -888Sport

SATURDAY

Going to change strategy tomorrow and take all the pressure
off the Saturday message. I will post trends and angles for most races on Saturday on the message board this afternoon and evening. The very best races I want to bet in I will save for the E Mail. It will probably be a 2-3-4 race message. You will be able to see every angle elsewhere on the message board or if you cant access that or don’t want you just drop me an e mail and I will send you all the other thoughts separately. I am doing this as Sunday racing has to be covered and we have 2 Friday messages so it will help to reduce the time pressure
a great deal. Shorter message planned tomorrow

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T O D A Y ‘ S R A C I N G

HAMILTON 4:15 SITE SERVICES PLANT LTD HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-70) 1m65y

3/1 Wednesdays Boy, 9/2 Five Wishes, Primo Way, 5/1 Mystical Ayr, 6/1 Superior Star, 8/1 Apres Ski,
14/1 Augustus John, Middlemarch, 33/1 Sydneyroughdiamond.

* This is a 0-70 handicap over a Mile
* Hamilton have had 38 similar races at this time of year
* I watched the down in class MIDDLEMARCH on tape
* I dont think he ran well enough to bet even in this class
* He was just struggling rather than shaping like a winner
* I would oppose APRES SKI as he comes up from 6f
* Horses that did that had pretty poor records
* AUGUSTUS JOHN wouldnt be my first choice
* Not with just 2 runs this year and well beaten last year
* Sydneyroughdiamond looks outclassed
* I think this is between the front 5 in the betting
* FIVE WISHES and PRIMO WAY were 1st and 2nd last time
* That was in the same race and it was only a claimer
* They will be close together again and hard to split
* I Looked at Fillies coming from claimers like FIVE WISHES
* They were poor (1-50) and shes 0-9 in handicaps
* That 0-9 record was mainly from far lower handicap marks
* WEDNESDAYS BOY and MYSTICAL AYR are also respected
* They were 1st and 4th in the same 0-64 handicap at Ayr 2 runs ago
* MYSTICAL AYR has since come out and run well
* WEDENSDAYS BOY came out and won at Ayr yesterday
* That was a 0-58 but he did it well and he must go close
* Running yesterday gives him a serious advantage in my view
* All these 4 look in the right grade and have reasonable chances
* WEDENSDAYS BOY would easily be my preference of these
* I just wonder if we have not got a clever dark one here
* SUPERIOR STAR Looks well worth a bet
* SUPERIOR STAR interests me a fair bit off “57″
* He was running well off marks of 70 last year
* Richard Fahey trained him then and he is now with N Wilson
* If you think about it this horse probably hasnt been staying 10f
* He is by Superior Premium who was a sprinter
* The Dam was also a sprinter
* Superior Premium has yet to breed a 10f winner yet
* All his siblings like Baltic King -Domingues and others are sprinters
* Look at his last 9 races since November 2007
* He still managed a 3rd 3rd and 4th from 3 hurdle starts last winter
* That may have fooled people into thinking he will stay further on the flat
* I think a horse like him has little chance of staying over hurdles
* I dont think he has a prayer of staying 10f
* In Febuary he ran ok at Southwell but he wouldnt have stood out that day
* He was after all coming from Hurdles and it was only Febuary
* He did nothing wrong at Warwick in March
* His last 4 runs all had valid excuses
* You can take out his last run over 10f – he didnt stay that day
* Watched the video and he was a blatant non stayer
* Before stamina gave out he was running a blinder
* Take out that run and his 10f Beverely run as well in July
* He flopped at Thirsk and I am not sure why
* It was a rough race – he missed the break as well and was eased
* He was also badly hampered at Pontefract as well
* The racing post rate him “significantly better than the bare form”
* Back to a mile in a small field his horse must go well
* SUPERIOR STAR Looks a strong bet
* I would have to consider a “save” on WEDNESDAYS BOY
* Alternately an each way option

Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips