COUNTRYSIDE DAY MAIDEN HURDLE (CLASS 5) (4yo+) 2m110y

13/8 Carole´s Legacy, 5/2 Shoreacres, 5/1 Quidonc, Somersby, 13/2 Puerto Azul, 8/1 Uffa Fox, 33/1 Northern Lad, 100/1 CoolContender, Graham´s Girl, Lady Samantha, Sideon Arthur, Son Of Karinga.

SELECTION - SHOREACRES
 

This is a 2 mile maiden hurdle. Pretty Standard for this time of year and we have 6 possible winners and 6 no hopers so it looks quite sortable. I wanted to oppose CAROLE’S LEGACY in this.

She is a 4 year old filly. She is having her seasonal debut. She has ran just twice before and she comes from Bumpers and thats not an ideal mix as the following trends suggest

* Since 1992 there has been over 8000 Maiden And Novice Hurdles
* Thats any time of year - any distance - any course
* I looked for 4 year old fillies that came from Bumper races
* The record was just 7 winners from 396 runners
* When they had under 3 runs like CAROLE’S LEGACY
* That record became just 2-244 a strike rate of 0.82%
* Seasonal debutants that tried it like her were 0-81
* The record in Maiden hurdles like this were 0-48

I concede that CAROLE’S LEGACY - Unbeaten- Powerfully trained -with Listed Bumper form has to have a better chance than these trends suggest she has - but the bottom line for me is this. In the last 16 years you can not find a 4 year old filly that won any maiden or novice hurdle
with her profile and thats any distance any class and any time of year. Because of that and because she is short enough around 7/4 I am going to take her on with something that has a far better profile.

There has been 126 Maiden Hurdles between September and December over 2 mile trips. Only 1 of these races went to a 4 year old thats had 1 career start in a Bumper as SOMERSBY. The record was 1-26 and although he cant be a negative on that statistic not many win with the
profile he has and just 1 at this time of year and he wouldnt be my pick in the race. Neither would be PUERTO AZUL another 4 year old that has 3 runs in Bumpers and has yet to win one. QUIDONIC is really impossible to rate as a 4 year old with French Form. Strong stable and you couldnt rule him out but he doesnt smell strongly fancied and you
would have thought he would have been shorter in the betting if he came here with maximum confidence. I feel the same about UFFA FOX as well as whilst he has won a Graded Bumper he has flopped since and remains with a small yard and doesnt smell too fancied either. There is only one choice for me and that is S H O R E A C R E S

* SHOREACRES comes from the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham
* September to December has seen 2813 Novice and Maiden Hurdles
* Thats at any trip and any course in these 4 months
* I looked at horses that came from Grade 1 Bumpers
* When they had 2 or more runs and aged 5 or more they were 36-85
* Thats a 42% strike rate and 58 of the 85 winners won or placed
* The record in Maiden Hurdles was 4 wins from 7 runners

You cant say he is Bomb Proof but a horse coming from the Champion Bumper like SHOREACRES has a very strong profile and considering we know that no horse has won a remotely similar race anywhere with the profile of the favourite in the race I have to go with SHOREACRES.

Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips

Today’s Selection

Ayr 2.55

HOTHAM 9/1

AYR 2.55 - HBG PROPERTIES HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo+, 0-85) 5f

5/1 Highland Warrior, 11/2 Prince Namid, 6/1 Ice Planet, 7/1 Regal Royale, 9/1 Killer Class,
11/1 Divine Spirit, High Curragh, The Bear, 12/1 Charles Parnell, Hotham, Sandwith, 16/1 John Keats, The Nifty Fox.

This is a 5f sprint handicap for horses rated 0-82 with 20 past renewals of this race. Tougher than it usually is as all horses are experienced enough and have ran enough this year and none have absences. In a race that’s been full of shocks in the past and we don’t have any big negatives today. I would oppose all horses that had ran in Group races before like THE BEAR as all 40 that tried lost. I would take out the horses dropping from 7f or more like CHARLES PARNELL as none won. I would take out all horses that hadn’t won at the distance before like JOHN KEATS. It’s further complicated by the fact many ran in last year’s race. I think I would rather have a horse that ran within the last 2 weeks. The last 4 winners of this race all ran within the previous 7 days. In the last 20 renewals horses with 13 + career runs that didn’t race within a month had a 4-174 record which isn’t very good. I oppose HIGHLAND WARRIOR who was 4th in this last year. He’s the oldest horse yet has the longest absence. There has been 248 of these handicaps in September at all tracks. Look at horses aged 9 or more that didn’t run within 15 days and you find a 1-71 record. That shows HIGHLAND WARRIOR has a tough task. He has done very well to win 2 selling races and a 0-74 but this is tougher and his absence and age is a concern and I feel he will stop winning now and I have to oppose him today.

SANDWITH and HIGH CURRAGH are also exposed horses that haven’t ran within 2 weeks. SANDWITH won’t want the ground as bad as this and all his winning form is on better ground and he is 7lbs higher than his best previous win. You can also argue HIGH CURRAGH wants better ground and there has to be a doubt as to whether he wants 5f especially on this ground. DIVINE SPIRIT is another horse that hasn’t had a very recent race. He had a very recent run before winning this race last year and was on a roll then. Now he comes here without a recent run and off the back of a well beaten run last time much as the draw hurt him. I don’t think he is safe. I don’t want a horse that was beaten so badly as THE NIFTY FOX and I dislike his draw. You can also argue that he wants a smaller field as he is 0-26 in fields of 10 or more runners. It will be interesting to see if the only 3 year old KILLER CLASS runs after running yesterday. He was a bit unlucky yesterday but it was only a 0-68 and this is a 0-82. If you look at 3yo’s in this race they are not brilliant. In fact with 13 or more career starts they are 0-75 and that’s a worry. In 248 other races we know when 3 year olds have 21 or more runs they are 0-104 and although KILLER CLASS doesn’t fail that with 19 runs he is close and I looked at the 248 races for 3 year olds that had a very recent run within 4 days. They had a 0-18 record. Overall I would want to oppose him much as last day runners should never be taken lightly and it is an advantage. KILLER CLASS isn’t for me though.

ICE PLANET is about to win as he is so well handicapped but as he showed at Chester he really wants 6f and he may not get away with it here. This 5f is sharper than the 5f at Chester by almost 1 second and that won’t help him. He should be outpaced. He should be the fastest finisher. Quite whether he can finish well enough to win this is one of the more interesting issues in the race. My gut feeling is he will not be able to do that and he does look the stable second string behind PRINCE NAMID.

PRINCE NAMID last won 28 months ago and has lost all 28 times since then but he is well handicapped and will love conditions. Dandy Nicholls has just bought this horse in July. You have to argue it’s a serious upgrade in stable. He ran him 2 days ago where he must have needed the race after a 73 day absence. He ran well to be 3rd and I don’t doubt that Dandy Nicholls is a far better trainer for this horse but I have two worries. You can look at his recent form in two ways. Firstly will he bounce? He ran very well after a long absence and comes out very quickly and he must be a prime candidate to bounce.

The other side of that coin is whether two runs in almost 3 months is enough to guarantee
fitness on heavy ground over 5f. I would be very worried about that.

REGAL ROYALE is in flying form and at the top of his game. He likes the conditions but he is probably now at the limit of his ability. I would argue Metaphorically that whilst the water isn’t over his head in a race like this its “At his head” and in a 0-82 in a race like this he could possibly drown. I think he is a horse form Class 4 tracks and this could just be a bit above his pay grade.

SELECTION

HOTHAM

HOTHAM ran well last time on soft ground and on that run has to be given a massive chance. Whilst all his wins have come on faster ground he has plenty of soft ground form. He doesn’t seem to stay 6f on soft but he does handle soft ground at 5f. Bottom line he caught the eye last time at Doncaster staying on very late in a far better race than this 9 days ago. That’s makes him statistically perfect. That Doncaster race is a good trial race for this and it was soft that day and in another few yards he could have placed. On that form he must have an outstanding chance in this.
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Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips

Beverley 2.00

WICKED WILMA 9/1 +

If you want a saver in the race I would suggest Whozart. You may remember
I went with Wicked Wilma last time but didnt make her a Full Bet as she had
a dodgy draw. She ran well just behind Whozart and I left that race convinced
she would win soon. I want to make her a selection today as I feel I can find
several reasons why her opponents will not win this. She is drawn 15 and that
could be an advantage or disadvantage. We just do not know based on evidence
at Beverley this year. If low numbers are favoured then she will struggle like
the other fancied high numbers. If high numbers are favoured we are in business.

BEVERLEY 2:00 FIONA’S SIGNIFICANT BIRTHDAY HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-50) 5f

5/1 Dubai To Barnsley, Monte Major, Myriola, 6/1 Whozart, 7/1 Mormeatmic,
10/1 Missus Molly Brown, 14/1 Gelert, 16/1 Morristown Music, Wicked Wilma,
20/1 Head To Head, Miss Taboo, 25/1 Captain Turbot, Fan Club, The Cube,
33/1 Sunley Sovereign, 50/1 Height Of Esteem

This is a 5f handicap for 0-50 rated horses. Its an outrageously hard race and it will
not be easy to get the winner but the reason I preview it is WICKED WILMA who
was my selection the other day. I almost made her an account bet but I just prefered
Superior Star that day who won thankfully and because the draw put me off her. I
am adamant that WICKED WILMA will win soon and although I initially put a Line
through this race I looked at the first few in the market and found good reasons to
oppose them all and as she is a really tasty price I decided to go with WICKED WILMA.

* September has seen 95 of these 5f handicaps since 1992
* DUBAI TO BARNSLEY comes from a 3yo handicap
* Horses that came from 3yo handicaps over 5f last time were 1-65
* It’s a disadvantage taking on older horses and I want to oppose him
* MYRIOLA does the same thing and is also opposable
* She is too exposed for a 3 year old as well and I dont want her
* MONTE MAJOR is 0-20 on Grass and has no form on ground this bad
* I think he is from a fast ground sire and this may be a bit soft for him
* MORMEATIC only problems are the 35 day absence and middle draw
* On this ground I wouldnt want an absence like that
* You have to argue that whatever the draw advantage here its not stall 7
* I dont want MISSUS MOLLY BROWN a filly with 4 runs this year
* That doesnt look like a horse fit enough to win this
* Fillies with 5 + career star but under 5 runs that year were 1-103
* MORRISTOWN MUSIC has been absent 56 days and thats vile
* Since 1997 horses absent 7 weeks or more were 0-111
* None of the 95 winners went 20 or more runs without a win
* HEAD TO HEAD has done that and only comes from sellers
* MISS TABOO also fails that and is a filly with a 0-22 record
* She only comes from maiden and looks very beatable
* CAPTAIN TURBOT comes from a 3yo handicap
* Horses that did that with under 9 runs that year were 1-101
* Horses from 3yo handicaps that lost by 4 + lengths also struggled
* These horses had a 0-94 record and he is hard to fancy
* FAN CLUB has a 39 day breal which is certainly no advantage
* He has also never run at 5f before and that must hurt him
* HEIGHT OF ESTEEM surely cant be fit with 2 runs since August 07
* SUNLEY SOVEREIGN surely cant be fit with 1 run since September 07
* THE CUBE has a long break and has a 0-17 career record
* I think I have offered sound reasons why these horses may lose
* The race at HAMILTON 11 Days ago interests me
* WHOZART (2nd) GELERT (3rd) WICKED WILMA (6th)
* WHOZART looks to have a very solid chance in this
* GELERT must also have a chance and is respected
* Its WICKED WILMA that I like best
* She has a usefull weight pull with both Whozart and Gelert
* I think the draw hurt her last time at Hamilton
* At Beverley before that she again had the worst draw
* She was also out of the weights in a much better race than this
* She still ran really well and wasnt knocked about once beaten
* Her previous run at Catterick was also interesting
* That was in a slightly better class 0-60 contest
* She again had the worst draw but she finished really well in 4th
* The Racing Post suggested she was one to “Take out of the race”
* Have to agree with that as she finished very fast like a knife through butter
* She sould have been a fast finishing 3rd that day
* Before that at Thirsk she stumbled early losing all chance
* That left her marooned in the middle of the track
* She was away from all the advantaged horses and it was a 0-72
* She was badly drawn before that at Ayr and hampered again
* She started the season rated 66 and is now down to 49
* She would have won at Musselburgh were it not for overweight
* WICKED WILMA is a very interesting bet today

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Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips

Mathematician 155

Friday 29th August

1 Account Bet

Todays Account Bet

Hamilton 4.15

SUPERIOR STAR

£50 Each Way 8/1

£100 Staked on the Day

SUPERIOR STAR is 8/1 with Hills -s james-betdirect - Tote
SUPERIOR STAR is 15/2 with Blue Square -Corals -888Sport

SATURDAY

Going to change strategy tomorrow and take all the pressure
off the Saturday message. I will post trends and angles for most races on Saturday on the message board this afternoon and evening. The very best races I want to bet in I will save for the E Mail. It will probably be a 2-3-4 race message. You will be able to see every angle elsewhere on the message board or if you cant access that or don’t want you just drop me an e mail and I will send you all the other thoughts separately. I am doing this as Sunday racing has to be covered and we have 2 Friday messages so it will help to reduce the time pressure
a great deal. Shorter message planned tomorrow

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T O D A Y ‘ S R A C I N G

HAMILTON 4:15 SITE SERVICES PLANT LTD HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-70) 1m65y

3/1 Wednesdays Boy, 9/2 Five Wishes, Primo Way, 5/1 Mystical Ayr, 6/1 Superior Star, 8/1 Apres Ski,
14/1 Augustus John, Middlemarch, 33/1 Sydneyroughdiamond.

* This is a 0-70 handicap over a Mile
* Hamilton have had 38 similar races at this time of year
* I watched the down in class MIDDLEMARCH on tape
* I dont think he ran well enough to bet even in this class
* He was just struggling rather than shaping like a winner
* I would oppose APRES SKI as he comes up from 6f
* Horses that did that had pretty poor records
* AUGUSTUS JOHN wouldnt be my first choice
* Not with just 2 runs this year and well beaten last year
* Sydneyroughdiamond looks outclassed
* I think this is between the front 5 in the betting
* FIVE WISHES and PRIMO WAY were 1st and 2nd last time
* That was in the same race and it was only a claimer
* They will be close together again and hard to split
* I Looked at Fillies coming from claimers like FIVE WISHES
* They were poor (1-50) and shes 0-9 in handicaps
* That 0-9 record was mainly from far lower handicap marks
* WEDNESDAYS BOY and MYSTICAL AYR are also respected
* They were 1st and 4th in the same 0-64 handicap at Ayr 2 runs ago
* MYSTICAL AYR has since come out and run well
* WEDENSDAYS BOY came out and won at Ayr yesterday
* That was a 0-58 but he did it well and he must go close
* Running yesterday gives him a serious advantage in my view
* All these 4 look in the right grade and have reasonable chances
* WEDENSDAYS BOY would easily be my preference of these
* I just wonder if we have not got a clever dark one here
* SUPERIOR STAR Looks well worth a bet
* SUPERIOR STAR interests me a fair bit off “57″
* He was running well off marks of 70 last year
* Richard Fahey trained him then and he is now with N Wilson
* If you think about it this horse probably hasnt been staying 10f
* He is by Superior Premium who was a sprinter
* The Dam was also a sprinter
* Superior Premium has yet to breed a 10f winner yet
* All his siblings like Baltic King -Domingues and others are sprinters
* Look at his last 9 races since November 2007
* He still managed a 3rd 3rd and 4th from 3 hurdle starts last winter
* That may have fooled people into thinking he will stay further on the flat
* I think a horse like him has little chance of staying over hurdles
* I dont think he has a prayer of staying 10f
* In Febuary he ran ok at Southwell but he wouldnt have stood out that day
* He was after all coming from Hurdles and it was only Febuary
* He did nothing wrong at Warwick in March
* His last 4 runs all had valid excuses
* You can take out his last run over 10f - he didnt stay that day
* Watched the video and he was a blatant non stayer
* Before stamina gave out he was running a blinder
* Take out that run and his 10f Beverely run as well in July
* He flopped at Thirsk and I am not sure why
* It was a rough race - he missed the break as well and was eased
* He was also badly hampered at Pontefract as well
* The racing post rate him “significantly better than the bare form”
* Back to a mile in a small field his horse must go well
* SUPERIOR STAR Looks a strong bet
* I would have to consider a “save” on WEDNESDAYS BOY
* Alternately an each way option

Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips