Last weekend saw uk racing cancelled due to the equine flu.

Irish horse racing continued however.

I suggested in last week’s free newsletter that this could actually bring benefit.

Without the usual excess glut of Saturday racing and instead just one single Irish

meeting to ponder vision could be more focused.

This panned out as predicted.

See copy of last weeks Saturday message below.

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Mathematician 3143
Saturday February 9th

8 Races Discussed
0 Account Bet
1 Highlighted Bet

Highlighted Account

 

Naas 3.40

£2.50 Each Way COMMANDANT 14/1 [2nd]

£2.50 Each Way GLENDAARS WARRIOR 14/1

1/4 the odds

1-2-3-4-5 Places

7 places – William Hill
6 places – Skybet PPower Unibet
5 Places – Most other firms
4 Places – Bet365 Spbet

 

Betting The Message

Naas is the only show in town
Have to make the best of things
Whilst the industry is disrupted

Covered all 8 races on the card
Some races require guesswork
Not all are particularly friendly
Many wouldn’t normally be here
But without a normal schedule
Just hope we get enough right

Going with 1 highlighted bet
Two big priced bets each way

Only need 1 of these to place
And we will not lose any money
There are 5 available places
As many as 7 with William Hill
Worth a try on 1 card Saturday

 

 

PROFILES & PREVIEWS

Naas 12.40

1/3 City Island, 4/1 Chavi Artist, 16/1 An Fraoch Mor,
20/1 Seeyouinvinnys, 25/1 The Echo Boy, 33/1 Cadougarde,
33/1 Edelweis De L’aube, 66/1 Doyen’s Diva,
100/1 Farranreigh.

2m 3f Novice Hurdle

CITY ISLAND is long odds on
His form has been boosted as well
Difficult to oppose impossible to bet

Interested in what finishes placed

CHAVI ARTIST is 2nd favourite
Every other horse is 20/1 and more
Based on his Racing Post Ratings
You’d expect him to finish second here
But he had shown nothing before that
He was 100/1 and unconsidered last time
Maybe that performance flattered him

THE  ECHO BOY ran well last time
It was his hurdling debut over 2m 4f
He faced 3 very decent prospects last time
He was in front round the final bend
Understandable he faded after that
He started only 10/1 to win that race
He might just nick one of the places here

CITY ISLAND should win
But as he is so short a price
Have to go into Novelty markets

Selection

THE  ECHO BOY 28/1-33/1 [2nd]

Novelty markets are in play here

The Each Way single 28/1
Pays 9/4 if he is 1st 2nd 3rd

Or just have a Place Bet at 9/4
Or bet him Without The Favourite

In Betfairs 4 Places available Market
The Echo Boy is  reasonable at 11/10
Thats fair behind a long odds on fav

 

 

Naas 1.10

15/8 Debuchet, 11/4 Sky Marshal, 13/2 Drop The Anchor,
7/1 Emily Moon, 7/1 Empire Escape, 10/1 Cool Getaway,
12/1 Pont Aven, 16/1 Prosecution, 20/1 Road Warrior,
33/1 Circling Moon, 50/1 King Alex, 50/1 Pat Coyne,
66/1 The Longest Time, 66/1 Arthur’s Quay, 66/1 Cray,
100/1 Odds Or Evens, Onefortherose, 100/1 An Marcach,
100/1 Daisy’s Hollow, Darling Days, 100/1 Dubaimolly,
100/1 Ladymorata, Our Big Red, Rosmarine, Sharp As A Pin.

2m Maiden Hurdle

DEBUCHET sets a high standard
We can not know if he will repeat it
Had some smart form last season
Made Cheltenham’s Supreme Novice
Where he was only beaten 12 lengths
He has yet to win in 6 hurdle runs
But has been highly tried in those
Has not been seen since September
DEBUCHET has a neutral profile
Closest 15 horses to try with his profile
Were all beaten but none were fancied

There are no strong profiles
No fancied negative profiles either
Comes down to trusting the stable
The trainers record is not convincing
Her record between January and April
Over hurdle and over fences
She has never trainer an absent winner
DEBUCHET is said to want good ground
Possible excuses for last 2 performances

SKY MARSHAL was an option
He is a pretty exposed flat horses
He faces some National Hunt types
Who are capable of improving fast
Was not convinced he was the danger
There are no safe each way options
DEBUCHET may be best as the saver
EMILY MOON has ran two decent races
Didn’t get home last time over 2m 4f
When she jumped the 2nd last in front
Giving her a chance with the saver

Selection

Small Stakes

£6.50 Win Bet EMILY MOON 6/1 [WON]

£3.50 Win Bet DEBUCHET 2/1 [2nd]

 

 

Naas 1.40

2/1 Advantage Point, 9/4 All For Joy, 4/1 Fauguernon,
6/1 Royal Thief, 12/1 Vipers Nest, 14/1 Pairc Na Ngael,
16/1 You Can Call Me Al, 25/1 Take A Turn, 33/1 Bigger And Better
33/1 Montagne D’Argent, 40/1 Western Doyen, 50/1 Alcatraz,
50/1 Lilly Banner, Melman, Rock Samphire, 66/1 Bizzario,
66/1 Greanta, Nam, 66/1  No Way Jack, 66/1 Rainbow Pride,
100/1 Rio De Cerisy, 100/1 Bellaney Gem, Ricky Langford,
100/1 Rio Gold, Soft Focus.

2m Maiden hurdle

There looks a lot of dead wood

Racing Post Hurdle Ratings

124 Advantage Point
117 All For Joy
104 Advantage Point
102 Fauguernon

Two horses are well clear
Based on their hurdle ratings
ADVANTAGE POINT
ALL FOR JOY

But they face some smart prospects
ROYAL THIEF is an unraced 5yo
YOU CAN CALL ME AL is unraced
No reason why they can not win

FAUGUERON appears well backed
But he fails the following statistic

February
2m Maiden Hurdles
Horses aged 6
Running within 15 days
Beaten over 15 lengths last time
Return a 0-156 record

FAUGUERON has this 0-156 profile
PAIRC NA NGAEL shares this 0-156 profile

Both horses only just fail this
Having recent and heavy defeats
But they do both fail it
FAUGUERON is hardly safe anyway
Having raced once since 2017

Find it hard to commit to these
Against 2 established hurdle runners
VIPERS NEST is a hurdling debutant
Has yet to show enough to select him

ROYAL THIEF is unraced
He may be the biggest threat
But if you look at his sire Fame and Glory
His Hurdlers are only 4-63 so far
His unraced runners are yet to win a hurdle

Drawn most to experienced hurdlers
ADVANTAGE POINT 5/2
ALL FOR JOY 5/2

Either of these two horses
Could be each way singles at 5/2
They are difficult to read and split
So playing the race this way

Selection

£7 Win Bet ALL FOR JOY 9/4 [2nd]

£3 Win Bet ADVANTAGE POINT 11/4 [WON 5/1 SP]

 

 

Naas 2.10

4/6 Pravalaguna, 4/1 Synopsis, 7/1 Mrs Lovett,
8/1 Teacher’s Pet, 10/1 Baie Des Iles,
50/1 Echoes Of Family, 200/1 Miss Titanic.

Listed Mares Chase

PRAVALAGUNA may be odds on
But she is the only horse in the race
Who did not disappoint last time out

SYNOPSIS has some decent numbers
But Pulled up jumping badly last time out
She is unsafe as it was only 15 days ago
BAIE DES LLES also pulled up last time
Down in distance by 1m 5f puts me off her

TEACHER’S PET should run well
MRS LOVETT has a small chance too
PRAVALAGUNA looks more progressive
Makes no real appeal at the price
But there is no safe alternative
With 7 runners limiting other options

Selection

PRAVALAGUNA 4/6 [WON]

Win Bet

 

 

Naas 2.40

6/4 Konitho, 3/1 Band Of Outlaws,
4/1 Coko Beach, 13/2 Maze Runner,
10/1 Elysian Plains, 16/1 Havingagoodtime.

4yo Hurdle
Lack of available evidence
The race is complicated further
Joseph O’Brien runs two horses
They are the 1st and 2nd favourites

KONITHO won here last time out
Subsequently bought by JP McManus
Deserves to be favourite on that win
But he had a 232 day absence beforehand
He comes back to the track just 13 days later
Raising the possibility he could well bounce
Impossible to know that before the race
That threat and a lack of other evidence
Pushes me more towards his stablemate
BAND OF OUTLAWS was smart on the flat
He has had two decent hurdle races
He won nicely last time in a big field
I would rather be with him each way

Selection

BAND OF OUTLAWS 11/4 – 3/1 [WON]

Each Way

1/4 Odds (2 Places)

 

 

Naas 3.10

5/1 Scoir Mear, 11/2 Bilbo Bagins,
6/1 Nellie Pledge, 6/1 Peculiar Genius, 6/1 Velocity Boy,
13/2 Roaring Bull, 7/1 Ask Nile, 14/1 Close Shave,
16/1 Spancil Hill, 20/1 Runyon Rattler, 33/1 Marakoush.

2m 4f Handicap Chase
February has 100 similar races

Number of Chase runs

12 Velocity Boy
11 Spancil Hill
10 Close Shave
10 Scoir Mear
8 Bilbo Bagins
8 Ask Nile
5 Peculiar Genius
4 Marakoush
4 Runyon Rattler
4 Roaring Bull
4 Nellie Pledge

VELOCITY BOY is topweight rated 130
His profile is a long way from safe
Well beaten last time over 3m 5f
Not for me dropping down over a mile
MARAKOUSH looks outclassed
BILBO BAGINS has just 1 run this year
He is the only horse that has this problem
He also has the longest absence as well
Wanted more recent runs for a 10yo
CLOSE SHAVE has raced twice this year
One fall and one heavy defeat last time
Not convinced of form or fitness
SPANCIL HILL has the same  problem
Not enough promise in 2 runs this year
RUNYON RATTLER lacks positives

ASK NILE has been hurdling
Has not raced over fences in months
Can’t rule him out but a tough weight
For a horse trying to get career back on track
Another worry is the trainer
Just 7 career winners in several years
The last of these was 636 days ago

SCOIR MEAR is a 9 year old
Running ok but yet to win over fences
I don’t see an outstanding profile

Horses aged 8 or more
Horses coming from 3m races
Completing in that 3m race
Absent more than 33 days
Have a 0-34 record in similar races
Might pop up and is down in class
But wasn’t particularly drawn to him

ROARING BULL is 6 with 4 Chase runs
He is one of the least exposed horses
His trainer described him as disappointing
Thatrs a bit harsh after just 4 chases
When he has won and placed in those
His last run was easily his worst yet
I would consider him as a saver bet

NELLIE PLEDGE is a lightly raced mare
Fell in a Graded Chase last time
But had previously won a handicap easily
That was a good win 2 races ago
She was stepping up a mile in distance
Given she is the joint least exposed
She may well be able to bounce back

PERCULIAR GENIUS is a 6yo
Main problem with his profile
He comes up from a 2m race
But that was only a hurdle race
So happy to forgive him that
Flat bred type may yet improve
I like the fact he is unexposed
And one of the youngest horses

Selection

Small Stakes

£4 Each Way PERCULIAR GENIUS 6/1 [L]

£2 Win Bet NELLIE PLEDGE  7/1 [L]

 

 

Naas 3.40

6/1 Empire Burleque, Thereisnodoubt, 8/1 Cappuccino Man,
8/1 Commandant, 8/1 Glendaars Warrior, 9/1 She’s Made It,
10/1 Eviscerating, 12/1 William Of Wykeham, 14/1 Leave Your Mark,
14/1 Wade Harper, 16/1 Lake Malawi, 20/1 Punches Pious,
20/1 Roachdale House, Trenchtown Rock, Write It Down,
25/1 Captain Courageous, 25/1 Tashman, 33/1 Coral Blue,
33/1 Rathbride Prince, Skeaping, 40/1 Easy Cash D’alex,
50/1 Opportunity Knox, 50/1 Liclash.

2m Handicap Hurdle

Previous winners of this race
Were aged 13 7 9 7 6 9 8
No 4 or 5 year olds have won

This may be significant

February
Naas Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any Class
There are 19 of these races
17 of the 19 winners were aged 6-7-8-9

Horses aged 4 are 0-12
Horses aged 5 are 1-35

January February March
Naas Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any Class

There are 55 of these races
Horses aged 4 or 5 won 8 of them

Since 2016 they are 0-43
None won with over 10 hurdle runs
Those with 11st 4lbs or more are 0-21
Those with 10st 13lbs or more are 1-46

Certain younger horses
Have to be opposed in this race

WRITE IT DOWN is a 5yo
He is unsuitable from a maiden hurdle
Having so much weight hurts him too
OPPURTUNITY ROCKS is wrong aged 5
TASHMAN is opposed as a 4 year old
WILLIAM OF WYKEHAM is a 4 year old
Weak profile from a maiden hurdle
CORAL BLUE has the same problem
EASY CASH D’ALEX is the wrong age
RATHBRIDE PRINCE hard to like as a 3yo

January February March
Naas Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any Class
55 of these races
51 of these ran within 3 months
Horses with absences struggled

ROACHDALE HOUSE has 487 days off
As an exposed 8yo with topweight
He should have too much to do
LAKE MALAWI rejected absent 557 days
TRENCHTOWN ROCK has 131 days off
I’d oppose a horse that exposed with a break

PUNCHES PIOUS doesn’t look fit enough
LILCASH has raced just once since 2016
SKEAPING has raced just once since 2017
That was a poor race when pulling up
Looks to have too much on with topweight
CAPTAIN COURAGEOUS doesn’t offer enough
Not hammered at 66/1 in Maiden hurdles
WADE HARPER is a 9yo down half a mile
His recent numbers worryingly low
He was well beaten in last years race

LEAVE YOUR MARK has 4 runs
Last seen in a maiden hurdle 89 days ago

February
Naas Handicap Hurdles
Any distance or class
19 of these races
Horses from Novice or Maiden Hurdles
Have a modest 2-52 record
Both winners had shorter absences
LEAVE YOUR MARK is hardly safe

February
Handicap Hurdles
2m 2f or shorter
Any Course
Any Class

Horses from Maiden Hurdles
Under 7 lifetime starts
Running this season
Absent more than 8 weeks
Return a 0-24 record
LEAVE YOUR MARK is unsafe
Not a strong profile and lots of weight
He has 111st 10lbs here a mark of 107
His Racing Post Hurdle ratings all lower

SHE’S MADE IT is a mare
She is the only female in the race
She is also absent 65 days
Mares with under 14 runs
Absent more than 54 days
Have a 1-70 record in similar races
Those aged 6 or more were 0-56
There are safer profiles
But she has been well backed

EVISCERATING  is down in distance
Not established his best distance yet
But unexposed and in good hands
But clearly not the stable number 1
And a big weight adds to his doubts

Shortlist

THEREISNODOUBT won last time
That was a career best performance
Raised 11lbs for a 9 length victory
Still has enough to be shortlisted

EMPIRE BURLEQUE is a lightly raced 7yo
Placed last time having made the running
Top class stable and not overburdened here
Future chaser but can win over hurdles

CAPPUCCINO MAN is a lightly raced 8yo
I see nothing wrong with his profile
His numbers suggest he is well treated
Entitled to need his last run as well
Every chance this is his distance
Much of his recent career
Has been over longer distances
On bad ground when unfit or not staying

COMMANDANT pulled up last time
There was an excuse for that run
He had Unseated rider the day before
He was shaping very nicely beforehand
Top class stable and an absence
Means he could easily bounce back

GLENDAARS WARRIOR is bottomweight
Career best  Racing Post Rating of just 93
You can argue he may lack the class
But last time was a career best run
Staying on second in a big field handicap
He could be improving right now

Selection

£2.50 Each Way COMMANDANT 14/1 [2nd]

£2.50 Each Way GLENDAARS WARRIOR 14/1

 

 

Naas 4.10

13/8 Front View, 5/2 Barnes Des Mottes, 7/2 Zambezir
11/2 Special Brute, 7/1 My Uncas, 12/1 Jungle Junction,
20/1 Nero Rock, 40/1 Golden Treat, Lauderdale Lady,
40/1 Walking Fame, 50/1 Dreamy Leamy, Little Lady Lu,
50/1 No Grey Area’s, 66/1 Arizona Boy.

4yo Bumper

FRONT VIEW sets the standard
Reasonably debut behind a hot pot
Racing Post rating of 110 is acceptable

ZAMBEZIR ran a rating of 100 on debut
Whilst he achieved less than Front View
He does have more space between races

4yo Bumpers
February and March
Horses with 1 career starts

Those running within 24 days are 1-42
Those running 25-42 days ago are 8-39

Not sure how relevant this is
FRONT VIEW only has 16 days absence
Not a lot of time since his career debut
He fits into that modest 1-42 profile
I can’t risk him at a short price
Even if he is the most likely winner

ZAMBEZIR has 34 days off since his win
Horses absent 25-42 days scored better
There were 8 winners similar to him
So should we see this as a safer profile

This is not a two horse race
There are likeable newcomers
BARNES DES MOTTES appeals on paper
Comes here with a decent reputation
Going to split stake this bet

Selection

Small Stakes

£5 Win Bet BARNES DES MOTTES 5/2 [WON 4/1 SP]

£5 Place Bet ZAMBEZIR 4/5

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Best Wishes

Guy Ward

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Book in for next Saturday’s racing analysis at

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Or if you prefer quality racing advice throughout the week
then our full membership may be a better fit for you.

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

 

Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips

We have rejigged slightly the style of message on the full member service.

Best way to get a feel for the new style is to show one too you.

Here is a copy of the first new style message from a  few days ago.

Nice 7/1 main bet winner with North Central as it happens.

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Mathematician 1401

One Bet Today

Hereford 2.00 – STEVIE THUNDER 11/8
Lingfield 4.20 –  NORTH CENTRAL 7/1

Win Bet on Both Horses
Each Way Double on Both

I am limiting the analysis today. Three days into the week and already had 21 previews done and I want to back off before the weekend. I found myself drifting into other areas yesterday like the JNWine Champion Chase on Saturday in Ireland. I like the chance to throw in a short message and get a chance to look at different things. To my amazement I find two Lingfield races that look worth spending time over. Its Kempton that offers me little today so I am swerving the night meeting. I have 2 races
at Hereford I like. That makes 4 previews today but I like them all. The Options are below and I have chosen one bet from them.

Todays Options

Hereford 2.00 – STEVIE THUNDER 11/8 Win Bet

Lingfield 3.20 – ALBAMARA – Win Bet 7/1
Lingfield 3.20 – ANISEED – Win Bet 16/1

Hereford 3.30 – COLD KNIGHT 5/1  Each Way

Lingfield 4.20 –  NORTH CENTRAL 7/1 Win Bet

In the end I decided to have a Win Bet on both Stevie Thunder and North Central and an each way double. Cold Knight was a very interesting option but I have to rely on him being ready to win and being Fit. The Split Stake bet  Albamara and Aniseed are in a hard race and I felt a touch too risky for comfort. I am  keen on Stevie Thunder and although the win part of the bet is hardly lucrative the 4 places for a place is a huge help and he is connected with North Central in a race full of negatives.

M e s s a g e   C h a n g e s

In the next couple of weeks I am going to Manipulate some of the changes I want to see in the messages starting from today.

* Selections and Mentions are now Dropped
* Each Day I am picking at least one Bet from my options
* I will go into more details later on
* There is a New Message Time 11.15am

W e d n e s d a y ‘s   R e v i e w

The three bets I highlighted yesterday returned a loser and two placed bets each way. A Small loss but not too unhappy with it  given I wasn’t certain about much of it. Edgware Road lost by a short head photo with the saver in 3rd so another inch and we’d have won good money and he did nothing wrong at all and that wasn’t too bad a start. Highlife Dancer got beaten and ran badly and that just left Aussie Reigns to nick us a bit of place money
and the overall position was managable if a bit behind but there was the potential for losing a lot more so overall I’m fine with it.

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P R O F I L E S  @  P R E V I E W S

H e r e f o r d  2.00

3/1 Stevie Thunder, 8/1 Tresor De Bontee, 9/1 Nicky Nutjob
10/1 Phoenix Eye, 10/1 Share Option, 12/1 Goat Castle, 12/1 Missionaire 16/1 Al Amaan, 16/1 Aureate, 16/1 Bobby Dove, 16/1 Gizzit, 16/1 Naledi 16/1 Scotsbrook Legend, 20/1 Aughcarra, 20/1 Final Flyer 20/1 Hadron Collider, 20/1 Holden Caulfield, 20/1 Prince Freddie.

This is a 17f Handicap Hurdle. Obviously there are too many runners to be confident – but I did like STEVIE THUNDER the favourite. He is rated 90 on the Flat and that makes him thrown in over hurdles even if you allow for the fact he is knocking on a bit and has his quirks. It
is only a 0-97 contest and off topweight he looks very well placed to win. He was well backed on his returns to hurdles last time out at Ludlow and some were dissapointed he was only second. That does not worry me. He was probably in need of the run and experience as well. He ran into an improving 4 year old as well and that race was a
lot better than this. It was a higher class and contained 9 horses in the race that would not even be allowed to race in this low a grade. Some will say he’s bad value at 13/8 but not sure thats true. He has a very strong chance and looks an ideal each way double bet given there are 4 places available and I think STEVIE THUNDER will win.

Selection

#10 Win STEVIE THUNDER 11/8

L i n g f i e l d  3.20

9/4 Surprise Moment, 9/2 Albamara, 11/2 Rumh, 6/1 Polygon
10/1 Momentary, 10/1 Roxy Flyer, 12/1 Tempest Fugit
14/1 Good Morning Star, 16/1 Aniseed, 20/1 Western Pearl
25/1 Sunday Bess, 33/1 Jiwen, 50/1 Livia4s Dream, 50/1 Miss Starlight.

I know I said I should ignore Lingfield today and we should really but wanted to mention something about this Listed race for Fillies over 1m 5f. There is a short 6 year history but I see some patterns.

* Every Past winner had between 5-9 career starts
* Every one had form in Listed or Group Class before

I would really want to land on a horse with 5-9 runs. The favourite SURPRISE MOMENT has only had 3 runs two less than all other winners and She also has no form beyond a Class 3 grade before. She should improve may well win and I can’t be too dogmatic as  there are so few similar races to develop an idea of what wins but I don’t think SURPRISE MOMENT is safe here. She has just won a handicap where her highest rated opponent was rated 90. Today her rivals include horses rated 103 102 99 98 97 96 95 94 and it’s
these reasons I want to oppose her. Every past winner of this had 5-9 runs so enough experience to win without being overexposed so there is still improvement to come. I am going to avoid horses with a lot more. ROXY FLYER and RUMH have had far more runs than all six winners. So has badly drawn GOOD MORNING STAR. I feel WESTERN PEARL is too exposed especially for an absence. Having only 4 runs TEMPEST FUGIT is one run short and as none of the past winners dropped in trip I dont fancy her to have enough.

S h o r t l i s t

* MOMENTARY matches the above two stats
* I have reservations about her from a 9f race
* I also dont like the fact she has had headgear

* POLYGON also matches the two stats I like
* I do note she has a listed race penalty which is a worry
* No older horse managed that – and she did win last time
* None of the 6 winners were 1st 2nd or 3rd last time
* They were all 4th or worse last time out
* POLYGON is still a positive but not exactly safe for me
* ANISEED – She passes both my requirements
* ALBAMARA – I felt she had a good profile

Selection

ALBAMARA – Win Bet 7/1
ANISEED – Win Bet 16/1

H e r e f o r d   3.30

9/4 On The Bridge, 4/1 Gigondas, 13/2 Going Nowhere Fast
8/1 Cold Knight, 9/1 Koultas King, 10/1 Lucky Prince
12/1 Loughalder, 14/1 Get Home Now, 14/1 Midnight Dove

* This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f
* Not many can win this race
* ON THE BRIDGE is hard to read winning a handicap chase last time
* I cant find any horses trying to win these races like him
* Not keen myself he drops from Chases but I have to be open minded
* I am opposing him each way given his short price
* GIGONDAS doesnt interest me as a 3yo
* Horses aged 3 do win but so far havent at this trip
* All 24 lost but they have won over 3m and 2m trips
* I looked at 3 year olds at every distance
* Not many won that were beaten as far as he was last time out
* GIGONDAS isnt my first choice
* It was COLD KNIGHT that interested me the most

COLD KNIGHT

* Male horses aged 6
* Having between 7 and 8 National Hunt runs
* Absent more than 100 days
* Coming from a Handicap Hurdle over 18f or more
* No form beyond a Class 4 race
* Carrying 11st 3lbs or less
* Beaten last time out
* There were 5 horses with this profile
* These finished W W 5 W W
* COLD KNIGHT has this profile today

Selection

#5 Each Way COLD KNIGHT 5/1

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L i n g f i e l d  4.20

3/1 Rio Royale, 5/1 Jackie Love, 6/1 Darnathean, 7/1 North Central 15/2 Mary4s Pet, 8/1 Memphis Man, 10/1 Silvee, 12/1 Artful Lady 16/1 Bedibyes, 20/1 Delightful Sleep, 25/1 Lady On Top 25/1 Schoolboy Champ, 33/1 Give Us A Belle.

* This is a 7f Handicap for Apprentices
* I looked at all similar races in October and November
* I would demand a fit profile here especially as its for Apprentices
* RIO ROYALE doesnt have that and I am opposing him
* He won this last year but had a recent run and more runs this year
* RIO ROYALE is exposed and absent 49 days
* He has raced just once since May and just 5 times this season
* Last year he had 7 runs since May and a run 17 days before
* RIO ROYALE looks underraced to me and so are others
* SCHOOLBOY CHAMP hasnt had enough runs this year
* MARY4S PET is an exposed mare and absent over a month
* Shes raced just once in 83 days a big worry for an exposed mare
* She also has to come up in trip to a distance shes 0-8 at
* JACKIE LOVE is also an exposed mare
* Worries me she has 45 days off and comes up in distance
* Not a solid profile and shes never been out of Class 5 before
* JACKIE LOVE doesnt offer me enough
* LADY ON TOP is short of runs this season
* BEDIBYES smells underraced to me as a 4yo filly
* She has a months absence and one run in 83 days
* Her trainer has never had a flat winner before either
* DELIGHTFUL SLEEP is too inexperienced absent too long
* GIVE US A BELLE isnt running well enough
* ARTFUL LADY is hard to like as a 3yo fily from a 6f seller
* SILVEE – Not keen shes an exposed mare absent 50 days
* No exposed mares won absent that long
* Shes hardly rich in backclass either and drawn one
* MEMPHIS MAN is 9 and absent 49 days and that worries me
* I can find a 9yo win absent a month in one of these races
* That was First Maite (2002) who had a similar level of backclass
* MEMPHIS MAN is therefore respected and shortlisted
* However in the last 5 years he hasnt won after a break
* Since 2006 his wins came after 2 9 9 20 17 14 5 14 20 3 7 15 days
* MEMPHIS MAN has 29 more days off than his longest absent win

Possibles

* DARNATHEAN – Respected as a 3yo with a recent run
* I’d have liked a slightly better last run but he is respected

* NORTH CENTRAL – lots to like with a fit profile and recent run
* He was beaten a fair way just 6 days ago which is a concern
* There is an excuse as it looks like he didnt stay a mile
* Statistically there are exposed 5yo’s winning like him
* Those that had recent heavy defeats over a Mile
* Lordship – Lindas Colin – Elusive Warrior – Tanforan all did it since 2009
* Thats 4 examples that show his profile is fine
* NORTH CENTRAL was trapped from stall 1 last time at Wolves
* Not given a hard race at all once he was beaten
* NORTH CENTRAL is well handicapped and is the best risk here

Selection

#10 Win NORTH CENTRAL 7/1

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Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips

Several have asked how the message for the private members service differs from that which we post on the free blog here at about 1pm each Saturday.

This is best answered by example I guess.

On Saturday October 1st 2011 we posted here a snippet from the full message.

See said blog post at this link ==> http://www.horse-betting-blog.co.uk/horse-racing-tips/another-newmarket-winner/

( Art History the free tip Won )

Below however I have copied for you the much longer and detailed messages Full
Members received.

This is exactly as sent..spelling mistakes and all.

I have however added results for the races discussed in red.

It is also worth pointing out that full members get sent their message about 1hr before a free selection gets posted on horse betting blog here as we want to give them a fair chance to pick off any good early morning prices.

If you would like to join the service proper please visit

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

We do offer a very simple no quibble refund guarantee if you later change your mind.

=============================================

Mathematician 1075

No Strong Bet Today

T o d a y ‘s S e l e c t i o n

Ascot 5.00

ELSHABAKIYA 16/1

Each Way

2nd at 16/1 landing each way winnings

One bet today chosen from several options. We had

a 16/1 winner last Saturday and I have decided to go

with another big priced horse. A Day with too many

options really. It’s been a very good week. I thought

about an each way double Blanche Dubawi 5.20 with

Dubai Queen who runs in ELSHABAKIYA’s race but

I decided to go with the bigger prices and commit to

ELSHABAKIYA as I did have multile options there.

She is the riskiest best of my portfolio but also offers

us the most reward so I will take a chance at 16/1.

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Message Thoughts and Potential Bets

Most of the message is at Ascot and Newmarket as

I felt they offered the best angles. There are plenty

of races that throw up some interesting angles with

potential bets. Not all of these are welcome or bets

I’d want to have. These are all summarised below.

Newmarket 3.35 – ART HISTORY 5/1 Each Way Won

Ascot 3.50 – PASTORAL PLAYER 8/1 Each Way Won

Redcar 4.00 – BOGART 6/1 Won

Ascot 5.00 – ELSHABAKIYA 20/1 2nd

Ascot 5.00 – DUBAI QUEEN 4/1 Lost

Newmarket 5.20 – BLANCHE DUBAWI 3/1 Win Won

REDCAR

Poor card. Ignore almost all of it but I do have one

really interesting Draw stat in the 4pm race. There

is a warm favourite in Bannock heavily backed and

dominating the betting. Fascinating to see that He’s

drawn in Stall 22. I looked at every Redcar race in

the last 11 years. Thats every distance and all type

of races. There are 831 of these races and not once

has a horse won from Stall 21 or higher in any race.

I explained a bit more below but because of this and

a couple of other factors I am opposing him and I’d

look at Bogart as the sensible bet each way.

NEWMARKET

There are 5 previews at Newmarket today including

3 shorter priced horses. Not bothered about minnows

so ignoring those much as ENCKE (4.10) looks like

the strongest. I have two bigger priced options here.

Not convinced I should trust a Mark Johnston horse

up in trip but ART HISTORY is the only horse that

has a solid profile in the 3.35pm and he looks good

each way. The Boadecia Stakes at 5.20pm is not my

kind of race but my angles say BLANCHE DUBAWI

has by far the safest profile and looks one to consider.

ASCOT

Five previews at Ascot. I’ve chances in the opening

two races both competetive though. I’ve thrown my

best angles at a very hard 3.50pm handicap and the

end result was PASTORAL PLAYER 8/1 who could

well win this if he can stay the distance. The 5pm is

a race I always do well in. Some strong angles always

give me the winner on a shortlist. There are times I

have chosen wrongly from that shortlist and today’s

choice is difficult I have chosen ELSHABAKIYA at

16/1 as a horse I have to bet and DUBAI QUEEN as

the main selecton in that race as explained below.

T h u r s d a y ‘s M e s s a g e

Quiet day yesterday. Kept it low key knowing their

wasn’t much choice. My mentions didnt win and the

decision to go with low stakes was right especially as

Ascot got the better of me which I feared it might.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S

N e w m a r k e t 1.50

6/4 Mizwaaj, 13/8 Campanology, 11/2 Al Wajba

10/1 Sheikh The Reins, 12/1 Switzerland, 33/1 Conowen

40/1 Papal Power.

This is a 6f Maiden for 2 year olds. I would happily ignore

the unraced SWITZERLAND and AL WAJBA as well as a

well beaten SHEIKH THE REINS and all the outsiders not

because they have bad profiles but because there are 2 here

with a seriou profiles. CAMPANOLOGY and MIZWAAJ

come from 7f Conditions races within the last month. All

horses with that profile had a brilliant 10-19 record and if you

chuck out horses at 12/1 and more that improves this

profile to a 10-12 record with all 12 getting placed. We do

have to choose between them. MIZWAAJ is lighter raced

but statistically that doesnt matter much. Its foolish to be assessing

CAMPANOLOGY as a maiden as he has already

won a race but was disqualified.

Its a close match with both looking decent. Marginal preference for CAMPANOLOGY.

Selection – CAMPANOLOGY 11/8 Won

A s c o t 2.05

4/1 Caledonia Lady, 5/1 My Propeller, 5/1 Stonefield Flyer

7/1 Hestian, 12/1 Rex Imperator, 14/1 Forevertheoptimist

14/1 Hexagonal, 16/1 Ponty Acclaim, 16/1 Pyman´s Theory

16/1 Royal Award, 20/1 Chunky Diamond, 25/1 Fanrouge

25/1 Miss Lahar, 40/1 Church Music, 50/1 Betty Fontaine

50/1 Signifer.

* The Cornwallis Stakes is a Group 3 race for 2yo’s over 5f.

* Ascot has 16 renewals of this race

* This is the only similar race at this time of year.

* The following Stats have worked out in this race

* All 26 horses that came via handicaps lost

* Horses beaten over 6 lengths last time were 0-48

* No maiden won this race

* No horse was absent more than 10 weeks

* Horses absent over a Month need to be Males

* They need to have under 6 runs

* Horses from 6f races all had 5 + runs

* No winners came down from 7f or more

* REX IMPERATOR – Wrong from 7f

* HESTIAN – Wrong from a handicap and draw not ideal

* MY PROPELLER has some statistical problems

* The only filly to win from 6f has far more runs

* That horse had ran much better last time than her

* In fact all 16 past winners ran better than her last time

* STONEFIELD FLYER has a long absence

* Horses absent a month from 5f races struggled

* None had 4 or more career runs like he does

* Stall 16 may not be helpfull either

* HEXAGONAL – respected from a good trial race

* His only flaw is all past winners had won before

* HEXAGONAL hasnt managed that. Respected

B e s t P r o f i l e

* CALEDONIA LADY looks good

* She ran in the Flying Childers as did many past winners

* She won the Roseberry Stakes at Ayr last time out

* That puts her very close to 2006 winner Alzerra

* CALEDONIA LADY has a good profile 3rd

N e w m a r k e t 2.25

10/11 Samitar, 11/2 Hazel Lavery, 10/1 Coplow

10/1 Wahylah, 14/1 Arsaadi, Buzkashi, 20/1 Aniseed

20/1 Glee, 25/1 Lost Highway, 33/1 Lemon Rock

33/1 Perfect Delight, 33/1 Roedean, 33/1 Soho Rocks

33/1 Tina´s Spirit, 50/1 Princess Caetani, Symphony Star

66/1 Party Line, 200/1 Itsonlymakebelieve.

This is a Fillies Trophy for 2 year olds over 7f. There are 25

Similar Class 2 races and my observations of these are below.

* In terms of the draw it looks quite complicated

* I think the Worst Draws are 15-16-17-18

* I’d avoid horses with 7 or more starts

* I’d avoid all horses beaten 6 or more lengths last time.

* Not much I can say really

* HAZEL LAVERY comes from a 7f Conditions race

* All 20 horses doing that lost

* COPLOW – ARSAADI have the same problems

* WAHYLAH looks shortlistable

* SAMITAR clearly sets the standard

* She was 2nd in a Group 1 only 7 days ago

* No horse has tried to win with her profile

* She will either outclass these on form

* Or the race will come too soon and she wont perform

* Thats impossible to know so we have to guess

* I think SAMITAR has the strongest chance

* Putting his chance into perspective

* She’s a similar price to Encke in the Maiden at 4.10

* I’d much rather bet Encke myself

* SAMITAR is still the selection though Won

A s c o t 2.40

2/1 Arctic Cosmos, 11/4 Lost In The Moment

7/2 Quest For Peace, 10/1 City Leader, 11/1 Nanton

16/1 Ted Spread, 16/1 Yaseer.

No real interest in the Cumberland Lodge stakes a poor

statistics race. ARCTIC COSMOS is well clear on ratings

but he hasnt ran in 385 days. Seasonal debutants struggled

in this and all similar races the only winner different than him.

I would be nervous about that profile. I am opposing him.

QUEST FOR PEACE looks unsafe with his absence as a lightly raced horse.

CITY LEADER doesnt look a fit profile. YASEER was well beaten last time

and I cant find a winner like him but his trainer has a 5-6 record in this race

so I erespect him. There is one horse I wanted to be with against the favourite.

LOST IN THE MOMENT is from the Ebor handicap and the 2006 winner

did exactly the same aged 4 and LOST IN THE MOMENT carried a

lot more weight as well and that makes him my choice.

Selection – LOST IN THE MOMENT Lost

N e w m a r k e t 3.35

11/4 Jameel, 11/2 Art History, 6/1 Topolski

13/2 Butler, 8/1 Incendo, 8/1 Warlu Way, 9/1 Greylami

16/1 The Betchworth Kid, 20/1 Red Anthem

25/1 Big Creek, 25/1 Itlaaq.

* This is a 12f Handicap for 0-100 rated horses

* There are 53 similar races at this time of year

* JAMEEL is very lightly raced

* We had 2 winners like him from Maidens

* Both came from 12f and he comes from 10f

* Neither had 1-2 runs that season

* I looked at 3 year olds from 10f races

* Those like JAMEEL with under 7 runs were 0-23

* Those like JAMEEL with under 7 that year were 0-22

* JAMEEL does have flaws in his profile

* TOPOLSKI had a superb season over hurdles last year

* He won all 3 and now returns back to the flat

* Long absence and I am far from convinced about him

* Horses like him score poorly and this is a hot race

* His connections say he is only 90% fit

* ITLAAQ and BIG CREEK didnt do enough last time

* RED ANTHEM may need more runs

* THE BETCHWORTH KID has been absent too long

* No exposed horse won without 7 + runs that season

* GREYLAMI fails that and looks short of runs

* INCENDO also fails that with 6 runs

* INCENDO is exposed and hasnt run in 2 weeks

* Similar horses struggled with a 2-91 record

* Both had more backclass and came from better races

* INCENDO didnt really do much for me

P o s s i b l e s

* BUTLER is 4 and well beaten over 12f last time

* WARNES WAY has the same problem

* Neither come out well on their latest starts

* I looked at horses aged 4 well beaten last time

* These horses score badly but there is hope there

* Last years winner of this overcame a similar problem

* If either bounce back they could be a threat

* Results show not many 4 year olds like them have

* Last years winner had a recent race

* Both horses have been absent over a Month

* I looked at horses aged 4 absent over a Month

* Those with 9 + runs had a 1-40 record

* That horse won down from the 14f Ebor

* BUTLER – WARNES WAY just come up short

S e l e c t i o n

* ART HISTORY is 3 and won at 10f last time

* I found 2 similar winners who were a close match

* ART HISTORY is a positive

* ART HISTORY Each Way 11/2 looks a solid bet Won

A s c o t 3.50

6/1 Smarty Socks,9/1 Hawkeyethenoo 10/1 Decent Fella

10/1 Golden Desert, 10/1 Pastoral Player 12/1 Joe Packet

Webbow, 14/1 Casual Glimpse Nasri 16/1 Imperial Guest

20/1 Atlantic Sport 20/1 Dream Eater, Parisian Pyramid

20/1 The Cheka 25/1 Al Khaleej, 33/1 Below Zero.

* This is a 7f handicap for horses rated 0-110

* Ascot has had 14 renewals of this race

* There has been 63 Similar races at other tracks

* The Draw should play some part in this race

* Looking at all similar races here over recent years

* I think the Draws to avoid are 1-2-3-4

* I would much rather have a higher draw

* I suspect Stalls 5 to 12 will be the ideal place to be

* Horses from 6f won 8 of the 68 races

* BELOW ZERO comes out badly from 6f

* No 3yo as exposed as him has won from 6f

* Exposed horses from 6f races had a poor 2-96 record

* They all had at least 5 runs that season

* HAWKEYETHENOO fails that with 4

* No Exposed horse from 6f lost by 4 + lengths last time

* HAWKEYETHENOO fails that

* If you take the 30 exposed winners

* Those with 1-2-3-4-5 runs that season were 0-45

* HAWKEYETHENOO fails that and is rejected

* PARISIAN PYRAMID also fails that

* IMPERIAL GUEST is exposed and from 6f

* Similar horses were 2-96 but none from a Conditions race

* ATLANTIC SPORT has the same problem

* None of the winners were aged 8 or more

* WEBBOW doesnt appeal as a 9 year old

* Not with a Months absence

* DREAM EATER is exposed and comes from an 8f race

* All similar winners had at least 7 runs that season

* DREAM EATER only has 4 runs and looks underraced

* If you take the 30 exposed winners

* Those with 1-2-3-4-5 runs that season were 0-45

* DREAM EATER fails that and is rejected

* Only 2 winners were aged 7 or more (2-52)

* None of these had more than 8st 12lbs

* SMARTY SOCKS fails that

* None won last time like SMARTY SOCKS

* SMARTY SOCKS has a career high mark and looks unsafe

* GOLDEN DESERT has a similar profile

* He is 7 and won a recent 7f race

* Horses winning within the past 2 weeks struggled

* Those with 13 or more career starts were 0-19

* GOLDEN DESERT fails that and isnt well drawn

* SMARTY SOCKS fails that statistic as well

* AL KHALEEJ is 7yo and we know these are 2-52

* None won with under 9 runs that season

* AL KHALEEJ only has 4 runs this year

* AL KHALEEJ looks underraced this year for his age

* JOE PACKET has a bad draw in Stall 2

* I find him unimpressive from a Listed race

* Very few winners come from Listed or Group races

* None did it as exposed as he is

* THE CHEKA is 5 and comes from 5f

* None of the horses that won like that had his weight

* None came from a Group race either

* Horses from Group races are unsafe and so is he

* CASUAL GLIMPSE is the only 3 year old

* Horses aged 3 with Listed or Group form before are 1-109

* That suggests he is the wrong type of 3yo

* Horses aged 3 from 8f races were just 2-67

* Those like him with 9 + runs were 0-35

* CASUAL GLIMPSE does not offer me enough

* DECENT FELLA is an unexposed 5yo

* Horses like that in 63 races were 0-32

* Thats a worry and DECENT FELLA is badly drawn

* He won a 7f handicap time and is absent 2 + weeks

* Horses with that profile were 1-29

* That winner was younger and different

* DECENT FELLA has a shaky profile

* NASRI is an exposed horse who won at 6f last time

* I found 1 similar winning at a different track

* I see him as a possible but not convinced with Stall 18

* He also comes from a 6f Conditions race

* No winners did that and he just fails to make the grade

Selection

* PASTORAL PLAYER is 4 and comes from a 6f race

* There were 2 winners doing that

* Both had Group 3 form and 13-20 runs like him

* PASTORAL PLAYER is therefore reasonable

* None like him won this race but two won elsewhere

* PASTORAL PLAYER could win this if he gets the 7f

PASTORAL PLAYER 8/1 Each Way Won

R e d c a r 4.00

2/1 Bannock, 5/1 Bogart, 9/1 Silverheels, 12/1 Excelette

12/1 Gold City, 14/1 Bear Behind, 14/1 Bop It

16/1 Place In My Heart, 20/1 Fulbright, 20/1 Imelda Mayhem

20/1 North Star Boy, 25/1 Bling King, 25/1 Parc De Launay

25/1 Vital Gold, 33/1 Es Que Love, 33/1 Evervescent

33/1 Free Zone, 33/1 Kool Henry, 50/1 Cockney Fire

50/1 Hidden Passion, 50/1 Jack Who´s He, 50/1 Monnoyer

66/1 The Penny Horse.

This is a Listed race for 2 year olds over 6f. Clearly hard

as ever to sort out. I want to oppose BANNOCK here and

have a variety of reasons to do this statistically and not.

* He has a 64 day absence which wont be easy to overcome

* In all similar races no horses overcae that when so well raced

* His Trainer has stated “He has missed work” due to a setback

* He has said he “might need the race” which must hurt him

* Maybe my best angle is that he is drawn in Stall 22

* One very interesting Statistic about the draw

* Since 2000 Redcar have had 831 races

* Thats every race any time of year at Every Distance

* Horses drawn 20 or higher were 1-94

* Horses drawn 21 or more were 0-45

* No horse has ever won a Redcar race drawn 21 +

* Not since 2000 anyway

* BANNOCK therefore has to be opposed

* I’d want an alternative

* BEAR BEHIND has the same problems with the draw

* BOP IT has a nasty absence

* No horse came from a Nursery absent as long as her

* PLACE IN MY HEART – Unsafe from 5f Auction maiden

* BOGART looks the solid each way bet

* I like him more than any others

Selection

BOGART 6/1 Each Way Won

N e w m a r k e t 4.10

10/11 Encke, 9/2 Good Morning Star, 9/2 Sadma

13/2 Commitment, 14/1 Valiant Girl, 14/1 Venegazzu

20/1 Sunley Pride, 25/1 Attraction Ticket, 25/1 Lazeez

25/1 Leitrim King, 33/1 Renegotiate, 66/1 Harry Buckle.

This is a 2yo Maiden over a Mile. I have looked at over

400 similar races at this time of year. The big negatives

are GOOD MORNING STAR and SUNLEY PRIDE as if

you look at horses beaten 10 + lengths last time out who

ran within 2 weeks you find a horrible 8-527 record and

those like GOOD MORNING STAR fillies had a 0-108

record. The choice may be between ENCKE and any of

the unraced horses like SADMU or COMMITMENT. I

see ENCKE as very likely to win having debuted well in

a hot maiden at Doncaster. With normal improvement

I would expect him to win a maiden like this one.

Selection – ENCKE Won

Bit of a Break now before the next preview. I have not

done the 4.35pm Seller at Redcar. If you want a bet on

a match bet I see SINATRAMANIA as a very good bet

to beat Pursuing in the match bet because I doubt fitness

of the latter and I see SINATRAMANIA as the winner.

2nd at 6/1 winning the match bet against Pursuing

A s c o t 5.00

9/4 Rainfall, 5/1 Marvada, 11/2 Dubai Queen

15/2 Flambeau, 17/2 Sharnberry 11/1 Crying Lightening

16/1 Elshabakiya 20/1 Theladyinquestion 25/1 Perfect Silence.

* The October Stakes is a fillies Listed race over 7f

* There has been 10 renewals of this race

* The winners of this race all fit similar patterns

* All 10 winners were 3 year olds (others 0-38)

* All 10 winners had under 10 career runs (others 0-70)

* The 10 winners had 8-5-8-3-7-5-9-8-7-6 previous races

* No past winner lost by 6 + lengths last time

* No past winner won last time out

* The 10 winners came from 6f-7f-8f in Class 3 or higher

* All 10 winners had 1 or 2 career wins

* This leaves 2 horses passing all the above angles

* ELSHABAKIYA – DUBAI QUEEN

* There are 24 similar Listed races elsewhere

* Exposed horses have a 0-37 record in these races

* PERFECT SILENCE fails that

* RAINFALL didnt appeal with just 2 runs this year

* Horses wih 1-2 runs that year and 5 + career runs were 0-31

* RAINFALL fails that

* She has 2 runs this year yet is 5 and well raced

* FLAMBEAU is 4 and has 10 career starts

* Horses aged 4 with 9 + runs were 1-59

* That horse had more runs this season than she does

* That winner also had Group 1 form as well and she doesnt

* THELADYINQUESTION lacks backclass for her profile

* She also loks underraced this year

* CRYING LIGHTENING only has 1 run since April

* She may be short of condition

* MARVADA – Minor flaws I see as forgiveable

* I would shortlist her but I have 3 others on the list

S h o r t l i s t

* SHARNBERRY – Good profile and respected

* ELSHABAKIYA – Sails through my strongest angles

* DUBAI QUEEN – Sails through my strongest angles

* DUBAI QUEEN is the obvious selection

* ELSHABAKIYA is too big a price to ignore

* Not keen DUBAI QUEEN is drawn 1

* Not keen ELSHABAKIYA is drawn 11

* With 11 runners I’d prefer a middle draw

* SHARNBERRY has the best draw of all of these

* She also has the most to prove as well

* The potential to choose wrong here is high

SELECTION

I have gone with ELSHABAKIYA.

2nd at 16/1 SP

N e w m a r k e t 5.20

11/4 Blanche Dubawi, 4/1 Rose Blossom, 11/2 Cochabamba

6/1 Sandslash, 8/1 Aneedah, 8/1 Anne Of Kiev

14/1 Gossamer Seed, Misplaced Fortune, 16/1 Amitola

25/1 Button Moon, 25/1 Ziraun.

* This is a Listed race over 6f for fillies

* There are only 8 past renewals of this race

* With no similar races we are in the Dark

* No winners were aged 6 or more

* No past winners had 21 or more career runs

* Every winner had at least 4 runs that season

* Every winner came from a Grade 1 track

* Every winner came from at least a Class 4 race

* None of the winners came from a 5f race

* This leaves 4 options

* COCHABAMBA – A little unsafe from 6f handicap

* ROSE BLOSSOM – The only 4yo winner had fewer runs

* GOSSAMER SEED – Impossible to read but basics are there

* BLANCHE DUBAWI has a smart profile

* 3 year olds are best and from Listed races

* Horses aged 3

* Coming from Listed Class Races

* At least 4 runs that season

* The following winners of this race had that profile

* 2010 2009 2008 2005 2004

* BLANCHE DUBAWI comes out best Won

A s c o t 5.35

7/2 Marygold, 9/2 Hot Sugar, 7/1 Sans Loi, 9/1 Forest Edge

9/1 Jack Of Diamonds, 10/1 Toffee Tart, 11/1 Little Rainbow

12/1 Golden Valley, 16/1 I´ll Be Good, 16/1 Our Cool Cat

16/1 Purley Queen, 20/1 Courtland Avenue, Kings Decree

20/1 Sheila´s Buddy, 25/1 Dream Whisperer

25/1 Our Phylli Vera, 28/1 Miss Conduct, Queen Of The Hop.

* This is a 2yo Conditions race over 6f
* There are only 12 similar races at this time of year

* I looked at every race over 6f here in 2011 with 11 + runners

* Winners were drawn 18 17 3 11 14 19 11

* I would be worried about very low drawn horses

* MARYGOLD doesnt look well drawn in stall 5

* I didnt like her anyway as horses from Nurseries are 2-94

* Both winners had more backclass than she does

* HOT SUGAR doesnt look well drawn either

* I´LL BE GOOD looks badly drawn as well

* It took him 9 runs to win a maiden 4 more than any other

* GOLDEN VALLEY also comes from a Nursery

* TOFFEE TART is badly drawn and from a Nursery

* JACK OF DIAMONDS comes from a 7f maiden

* No winners managed this

* I need to be right about the draw or I wont win

* SANS LOI drawn high looks the obvious play

* I’d like a shorter absence but overlooking that

* SANS LOI is my choice Lost

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Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips

 COUNTRYSIDE DAY MAIDEN HURDLE (CLASS 5) (4yo+) 2m110y

13/8 Carole´s Legacy, 5/2 Shoreacres, 5/1 Quidonc, Somersby, 13/2 Puerto Azul, 8/1 Uffa Fox, 33/1 Northern Lad, 100/1 CoolContender, Graham´s Girl, Lady Samantha, Sideon Arthur, Son Of Karinga.

SELECTION – SHOREACRES
 

This is a 2 mile maiden hurdle. Pretty Standard for this time of year and we have 6 possible winners and 6 no hopers so it looks quite sortable. I wanted to oppose CAROLE’S LEGACY in this.

She is a 4 year old filly. She is having her seasonal debut. She has ran just twice before and she comes from Bumpers and thats not an ideal mix as the following trends suggest

* Since 1992 there has been over 8000 Maiden And Novice Hurdles
* Thats any time of year – any distance – any course
* I looked for 4 year old fillies that came from Bumper races
* The record was just 7 winners from 396 runners
* When they had under 3 runs like CAROLE’S LEGACY
* That record became just 2-244 a strike rate of 0.82%
* Seasonal debutants that tried it like her were 0-81
* The record in Maiden hurdles like this were 0-48

I concede that CAROLE’S LEGACY – Unbeaten- Powerfully trained -with Listed Bumper form has to have a better chance than these trends suggest she has – but the bottom line for me is this. In the last 16 years you can not find a 4 year old filly that won any maiden or novice hurdle
with her profile and thats any distance any class and any time of year. Because of that and because she is short enough around 7/4 I am going to take her on with something that has a far better profile.

There has been 126 Maiden Hurdles between September and December over 2 mile trips. Only 1 of these races went to a 4 year old thats had 1 career start in a Bumper as SOMERSBY. The record was 1-26 and although he cant be a negative on that statistic not many win with the
profile he has and just 1 at this time of year and he wouldnt be my pick in the race. Neither would be PUERTO AZUL another 4 year old that has 3 runs in Bumpers and has yet to win one. QUIDONIC is really impossible to rate as a 4 year old with French Form. Strong stable and you couldnt rule him out but he doesnt smell strongly fancied and you
would have thought he would have been shorter in the betting if he came here with maximum confidence. I feel the same about UFFA FOX as well as whilst he has won a Graded Bumper he has flopped since and remains with a small yard and doesnt smell too fancied either. There is only one choice for me and that is S H O R E A C R E S

* SHOREACRES comes from the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham
* September to December has seen 2813 Novice and Maiden Hurdles
* Thats at any trip and any course in these 4 months
* I looked at horses that came from Grade 1 Bumpers
* When they had 2 or more runs and aged 5 or more they were 36-85
* Thats a 42% strike rate and 58 of the 85 winners won or placed
* The record in Maiden Hurdles was 4 wins from 7 runners

You cant say he is Bomb Proof but a horse coming from the Champion Bumper like SHOREACRES has a very strong profile and considering we know that no horse has won a remotely similar race anywhere with the profile of the favourite in the race I have to go with SHOREACRES.

Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips

Today’s Selection

Ayr 2.55

HOTHAM 9/1

AYR 2.55 – HBG PROPERTIES HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo+, 0-85) 5f

5/1 Highland Warrior, 11/2 Prince Namid, 6/1 Ice Planet, 7/1 Regal Royale, 9/1 Killer Class,
11/1 Divine Spirit, High Curragh, The Bear, 12/1 Charles Parnell, Hotham, Sandwith, 16/1 John Keats, The Nifty Fox.

This is a 5f sprint handicap for horses rated 0-82 with 20 past renewals of this race. Tougher than it usually is as all horses are experienced enough and have ran enough this year and none have absences. In a race that’s been full of shocks in the past and we don’t have any big negatives today. I would oppose all horses that had ran in Group races before like THE BEAR as all 40 that tried lost. I would take out the horses dropping from 7f or more like CHARLES PARNELL as none won. I would take out all horses that hadn’t won at the distance before like JOHN KEATS. It’s further complicated by the fact many ran in last year’s race. I think I would rather have a horse that ran within the last 2 weeks. The last 4 winners of this race all ran within the previous 7 days. In the last 20 renewals horses with 13 + career runs that didn’t race within a month had a 4-174 record which isn’t very good. I oppose HIGHLAND WARRIOR who was 4th in this last year. He’s the oldest horse yet has the longest absence. There has been 248 of these handicaps in September at all tracks. Look at horses aged 9 or more that didn’t run within 15 days and you find a 1-71 record. That shows HIGHLAND WARRIOR has a tough task. He has done very well to win 2 selling races and a 0-74 but this is tougher and his absence and age is a concern and I feel he will stop winning now and I have to oppose him today.

SANDWITH and HIGH CURRAGH are also exposed horses that haven’t ran within 2 weeks. SANDWITH won’t want the ground as bad as this and all his winning form is on better ground and he is 7lbs higher than his best previous win. You can also argue HIGH CURRAGH wants better ground and there has to be a doubt as to whether he wants 5f especially on this ground. DIVINE SPIRIT is another horse that hasn’t had a very recent race. He had a very recent run before winning this race last year and was on a roll then. Now he comes here without a recent run and off the back of a well beaten run last time much as the draw hurt him. I don’t think he is safe. I don’t want a horse that was beaten so badly as THE NIFTY FOX and I dislike his draw. You can also argue that he wants a smaller field as he is 0-26 in fields of 10 or more runners. It will be interesting to see if the only 3 year old KILLER CLASS runs after running yesterday. He was a bit unlucky yesterday but it was only a 0-68 and this is a 0-82. If you look at 3yo’s in this race they are not brilliant. In fact with 13 or more career starts they are 0-75 and that’s a worry. In 248 other races we know when 3 year olds have 21 or more runs they are 0-104 and although KILLER CLASS doesn’t fail that with 19 runs he is close and I looked at the 248 races for 3 year olds that had a very recent run within 4 days. They had a 0-18 record. Overall I would want to oppose him much as last day runners should never be taken lightly and it is an advantage. KILLER CLASS isn’t for me though.

ICE PLANET is about to win as he is so well handicapped but as he showed at Chester he really wants 6f and he may not get away with it here. This 5f is sharper than the 5f at Chester by almost 1 second and that won’t help him. He should be outpaced. He should be the fastest finisher. Quite whether he can finish well enough to win this is one of the more interesting issues in the race. My gut feeling is he will not be able to do that and he does look the stable second string behind PRINCE NAMID.

PRINCE NAMID last won 28 months ago and has lost all 28 times since then but he is well handicapped and will love conditions. Dandy Nicholls has just bought this horse in July. You have to argue it’s a serious upgrade in stable. He ran him 2 days ago where he must have needed the race after a 73 day absence. He ran well to be 3rd and I don’t doubt that Dandy Nicholls is a far better trainer for this horse but I have two worries. You can look at his recent form in two ways. Firstly will he bounce? He ran very well after a long absence and comes out very quickly and he must be a prime candidate to bounce.

The other side of that coin is whether two runs in almost 3 months is enough to guarantee
fitness on heavy ground over 5f. I would be very worried about that.

REGAL ROYALE is in flying form and at the top of his game. He likes the conditions but he is probably now at the limit of his ability. I would argue Metaphorically that whilst the water isn’t over his head in a race like this its “At his head” and in a 0-82 in a race like this he could possibly drown. I think he is a horse form Class 4 tracks and this could just be a bit above his pay grade.

SELECTION

HOTHAM

HOTHAM ran well last time on soft ground and on that run has to be given a massive chance. Whilst all his wins have come on faster ground he has plenty of soft ground form. He doesn’t seem to stay 6f on soft but he does handle soft ground at 5f. Bottom line he caught the eye last time at Doncaster staying on very late in a far better race than this 9 days ago. That’s makes him statistically perfect. That Doncaster race is a good trial race for this and it was soft that day and in another few yards he could have placed. On that form he must have an outstanding chance in this.
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Posted under Past Horse Betting Tips