Most of you know that bookies want to win your money off
you.
But did you know they can just take your cash even if you
do not make a losing wager?
Well they can and they can’t.
Their terms often have provision for dealing
with what they class as dormant accounts.
These would be punter accounts that have
seen no action on them for some time.
It matters little to the punter if such an account
has zero balance in it.
But if there is balance there then this balance has potential
to be eaten away by dormant account fees.
It’s not a quite a free for all however for bookies with
such matters.
Any uk regulated bookie will have standards to uphold in dealing
with such matters. They have to make a fair attempt to contact
the customer for example.
But I can see how a fair attempt using email may not reach
the target.
So rack your brains.
Do you have any old bookie accounts with balance in them?
They may even use an old email address that no longer works.
I got caught out myself with this just this week.
Checking an old email address I had not looked at in six
months
I found a few emails from betfair from a month ago.
It appears I had set up a second Betfair account back in
2007 and it still had some balance in it.
I had totally forgotten about it’s existence.
If I remember correctly I had set it up as short lived experiment
for a soccer punter mate totrade on using my funds.
Once alerted I quickly logged in and made a super small trade
to kill the dormant status.
But I noted I had been charged £5 each week for 3 weeks
in a row as dormant account fees.
No moans from me towards betfair about all this.
They contacted my email well in advance.
It was my fault not to check emails in that inbox for six
months.
You stay more alert than me I suggest 🙂
Learn from my mistakes.
What’s The Positive ?
Well I am actually semi happy as I now
realise I have a second betfair account with £350 in
it.
So mentally I am £350 up as I had totally forgotten
about it.
I could just withdraw it but that would be no fun.
Seeing as it is totally separate from my main betfair account
I thought I might do something special with it.
My own mum does a fair bit of voluntary work for Marie Curie.
As a retired nurse she has medical skills they can put to
good use.
My own skills lie elsewhere.
I thought I would try and bet the initial £350 figure
up to a target £700.
If I hit it I will keep £350 and donate the rest to
Marie Curie
What Will I Bet On?
Well if you look at the profit chart
for Guy’s backing tips at
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/profit-chart.asp
it should be clear to see that an approach based on
those would be far from idiotic.
However because this surprise £350 is already in betfair
I intend to base this on Guy’s advice from his newish lays
section of the full member message here as that is 100% geared for
exchanges.
As you can see from the list below he has been quite selective
with these.
But also very accurate at identifying shorter priced favourite
to oppose.
Much more so patient sniper like than machine gunnist.
| DATE |
HORSE |
Bet Profit
|
Total Profit
|
| 12-May |
Amber Crystal |
£48
|
£48
|
| 13-May |
Receding Waves |
£42
|
£89
|
| 18-May |
Cry Fury |
£62
|
£151
|
| 19-May |
Peggy Do |
£288
|
£439
|
| 19-May |
Morselle |
-£100
|
£339
|
| 22-May |
Luna Moon |
£53
|
£393
|
| 27-May |
Towering |
£104
|
£497
|
| 03-Jun |
Sophie’s World |
£161
|
£658
|
| 08-Jun |
Hurricane Fly |
£52
|
£710
|
| 17-Jun |
Grangeclare Rosa |
£24
|
£733
|
| 02-Jul |
Zebs Fantasy |
£81
|
£814
|
| 03-Jul |
Jayjinski |
£44
|
£858
|
| 08-Jul |
Rio Deva |
£64
|
£922
|
| 14-Jul |
Lady Gemini |
£38
|
£961
|
| 03-Aug |
General Potempkin |
£95
|
£1,056
|
The profits above assume you take a maximum risk of £100
on each horse at BSP with 5% commission.
I guess one way of looking at the above figures might be
to say that a client here who had risked £100 on each lay would
now be over £1000 better off in winnings since May 12th.
So even forgetting about additional profits on the backing
tips they would have earned more than our annual subscription fee
over that shortish period.
That’s just one way of following lays.
Some people may prefer to put up a fixed amount for a punter
to take on betfair. If so their £ risk of loss will
vary on a horse by horse basis according to odds.
It is just my personal preference to veer more towards a
maximum loss per selection.
How Will I Stake My Charity Fund?
Staking on anything is part spreadsheet figures and part mentality.
The mental side is all about an individuals risk and reward
attitude.
In this scenario I am dealing with a small surprise pot of
cash.
I am happy to veer towards over aggression with it.
With a larger pot I could less afford to totally lose I would
play safer with.
What I will do is set my liability on each lay at about 15%
of my bankroll.
That will add a bit of compounding element into it as well.
Out of interest that exact approach would have turned an
initial £1000 into £3.1k over the series of lays as per above.
I will set a three month review date on it as well assuming
the target is not met before then.
Anyhow I will let you know how I get on with it in future
newsletters.
Hopefully the end result at the end of it is that I still
have my £350 and Marie Curie get a cheque for the same.
If I blow the lot well both Marie Curie and myself will be
in the same position we thought we were at a week ago.
Lays Spreadsheet
If you have an interest in laying note the spreadsheet I
knocked up
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/download/negatives-spreadsheet.xls
It let’s you examine various staking approaches.
Wipe all Guy’s lays data from it and input your own lays if
you like.
You will note I have added place lay data for all Guys lays
too despite him officially laying in the win market.
There has been good edge place laying them too as it happens.
One for outside the box thinker clients perhaps?
What About This Saturday?
Guy had a reasonable Saturday last week with his sole official
tip placing at 12/1 each way.
I asked him if he had anything useful for you for tomorrow.
He said he was just early into his research for tomorrow at
this stage but he passed on a few stat nuggets for the Shergar Cup Meeting
at Ascot.
++++++++++++++++++++
The Shergar Cup at Ascot started back in 2000
There have been 84 races at this 1 day festival
There are two Generic Stats to consider
All horses that ran aged 7 or more are 1-68
All horses aged 4 or more absent 54 + days are 0-42
++++++++++++++++++++
So I guess those of you who like to pick your own
could use those stat filters to reduce your shortlist
a degree.
No stats are ever infallible of course.
The attitude will always be know the numbers
so you can choose to sway your opinion by them
in order to help gain longer term edge.
Do your homework and you are more likely to pass the test.
Perhaps our clients here are cheaters who pay
big racing swot Guy to do their tedious homework
for them 🙂
It’s no different in theory really to Warren Buffet
paying skilled stock analysts to do research for him.
Guy’s final conclusions for Saturday you can book
for a one off £3 at
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass
Or if your vision extends beyond a single day
then give him a test for a month at
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp
Best of luck for your weekend racing
Mick
PS If you don’t yet have a betfair account you are probably
missing out on better backing odds and on ability to trade
and lay.
They have a £30 free bet bribe for new accounts at
this link
Posted under horse racing tips
