Injured Jockeys Charity Bet

Injured Jockey Fund Charity Bet

As I mentioned on our free newsletter yesterday
I am making use of b etfairs all customers invited
free bet offer today with winnings if any to be donated
to the Injured Jockey Fund.

The constraints I have to work with here are
- It must be at Ascot or Haydock
- It needs to be SP 3/1 or better.
( this bit is of course impossible to assess with 100% accuracy before the off )
- I am also seeking to use one of the races Guy has covered in his Saturday Message
- I promised a 1pm post time so I can’t select early races

This Saturday he has an Account Bet at Huntingdon
The two from his “Selections” category are at LingField.

ie his three strongest advices for today do not fit the “must be Ascot or Haydock” criteria.

He actually said to members

“Plenty of rain about and it’s soft
if not heavy at three National Hunt meetings.

I’ve made Lingfield the spine of the message
as there will be no significant changes there
and we know what we’re getting. I’ve dipped
into the National Hunt races I liked but there
are many big field handicaps on bad ground
at Ascot and Haydock and I’m dropping a few
of them this year if these look far too difficult.”

So we are into the Profile and Preview section of his message.
This section you can picture as a write up of research and analysis
he has done while seeking good value.

It is very possible for him to work a few hours on a race and
end up with no apparent stand out value that would merit elevation
of the advice to one of the stronger bet categories.

In Profiles and Previews today he has analysed 12 races.
Some in greater detail than others and as for reasons cited above
not too many at Ascot or Haydock.
Bearing in mind the race time criteria above I am left with only one race really that I can possibly select for our charity bet and it is one he has only done a very short write up on.

 

The 3pm Betfair Chase at Haydock

Guy says

“Considering the Betfair Chase is one of the best
early season races it is surprisingly very low on
my priority list. I don’t the race or the track or my
angles in this race and never have done. Its only
a very tokenistic view so if you fancy something
don’t let me put you off. I looked at the horses in
this race that had a chance that had proven form
over 3m 1f in Soft or Heavy ground in Grade One
Class there is only CUE CARD that has achieved
that. He’s Top on Racing Post Ratings and comes
out second on Official Ratings. Having won this
race last year he seems a reasonable e/w option.

Selection

CUE CARD 4/1

Each Way”

So Cue Card it is then for our charity bet under the b etfair offer
I have bet £25 on the nose at 4/1 and it may pay out
more under best odds guarantee if SP is greater.
Winnings if any will be sent to the Injured Jockeys Fund.
If it does win then any bonus free bet from them will
also be bet on behalf of the IJF ( on another day ) and I will post up here
in advance of the off if so.

Here’s hoping lady luck smiles on us.

A good start to the day so far for full members as I type.
The 11.50 race Guy got right.

The same with the 12.10
Same with the 12.20

So 3 out of 3 so far today.

Best wishes
Mick
Site Admin

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on November 22, 2014

Horses To Follow

Get high quality racing advice this Saturday

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass


10 Horses of Interest

Guy introduced a new element to the full member

messages this week.

I guess it is a little bit like a Horses To Follow Style
list based loosely around horses who ran ok from a pretty bad draw.

The core premise of it is that such horses can do better in
future races run on a more level playing field that perhaps as basic assessmentof their poor draw finishing position may lead on to believe.

There is of course a degree of appreciation for such stuff in betting
markets.

As such it can help to look at draw bias in a slightly different
stance than is commonly reported to the crowds.

He said to full members:

Draw Statistics are a major part of my daily message.

I don’t know anyone who looks at Draw biases in the

same way as I do and I think it works. It is impossible

to get the Draw right all the time but I think we do it

very well and often find the draw matters in races at

distances and tracks that most people do not realise.

I decided to come up with this list of horses to follow.

I have chosen them purely on the following criteria.

* I can illustrate they had a very bad draw last time

* I watched their last run on video and felt positive

 

He then went on to list ten horses he had noted

as worth adding to this list.

Below is one of his notes.

 

PROCLAMATIONOFWAR

* Ran well from Stall 15 at Beverley last time

* Since 2013 there have been 118 Beverley handicaps

* Thats 118 Beverley races at any and every distance

* No horse has won from 13 or higher at Beverley 2013-14

* That is over any distance and not just over 5f

* He was badly disadvantaged from Stall 15 in this race

 

With Horse To Follow lists I guess there may

be two main style of punter approach.

Those prone to seek mechanical methods

that require little thought may be more likely to

do something like bet each horse for the next X runnings

or until it wins.

Others will treat it just as a reminder of a horse

worthy of scrutiny and consideration in a future race.

Guy I guess would fall into that second camp.

He is not going to Account Bet something

just because it ran ok from a poor draw last time

and act blind to other key factors of form, other runners

and with zero consideration to the concept of value odds.

As it happens Proclamationofwar is running this evening (
Friday )

It is the first of his Ten Horse list to have a live run.

He covered the race in his Profiles and Previews section.

Profiles and Previews I guess you can consider as extra analysis
and viewpoint for races he examines while looking for firmer strong advices
for either his Optional Account of Full Account tips.

It is not uncommon for him to research and write five or six
several races daily yet find not one horse worth a proper bet.

His is a totally different thought train to the average
mug punter who more so says..”I am going to bet in this race..which horse will it be?”

I have copied that Profile & Preview piece below for
you

 

Musselburgh 8.40

Racing Posts Odds

6/4 Twin Appeal, 7/2 Beautiful Stranger, 6/1 Cahal

10/1 China In My Hands, 10/1 Miss Acclaimed, 10/1 Mitcd

10/1 Proclamationofwar, Torridon, 20/1 Lomond Lassie

33/1 Connexion Francais.

I sent a list recently of “10 horses of interest”
that had

recently run well from bad draws. The first of these is

running in this race. PROCLAMATIONOFWAR is on the

list so I need to mention him. He has been gambled.

Statistically he is quite weak though. I liked his race

over 5f at Beverley but he moves up to 7f today. In all

similar races Male horses going from 5f to 7f are 0-40

in similar races and I don’t like his profile. I will leave

it up to you but I couldn’t select him. Perhaps the split

stake is best with TWIN APPEAL having a good profile.

* Horses coming from 7f handicaps

* Running within 3 weeks

* 4 career starts

* 2 runs this season

* Starting under 10/1

* Beaten last time

* 4 horses had this profile finishing 2 W 4 W

* TWIN APPEAL has this profile

I don’t really want to bet TWIN APPEAL at the price

PROCLAMATIONOFWAR my draw horse is unsafe statistically

Maybe the compromise is a split stake bet

PROCLAMATIONOFWAR to place 11/0

TWIN APPEAL to win 6/4

 

Anyhow I just wanted let you know about this new angle on
the full service.

You may see future reference to it in Saturday Day Pass messages.

It could perhaps be notes on a new horse added to the list
or info about a past addition running that day.

If so at least now you have a fair idea of what it is all
about.

Best Wishes

Mick

Site Admin

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

 

NB If you want in for Guy’s Saturday Analysis here is the
link

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass

Note the 12 noon cut off point.

( this pos was originally sent by email friday evening )

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on May 24, 2014

Scoop 6 Syndicate

LATEST NEWS: Scoop 6 £10 Million Rollover Special

We are running a multi thousand pound Scoop 6 syndicate with full members here for Saturday May 17th.

50 tickets in the syndicate will be bought on behalf of our group of daypass buyers this week. Any profits due on these 50 tickets will be paid out to this week’s daypass buyers. We will email day pass members on Saturday lunch time with a full list of all horses covered in our big syndicate perm. The last few times we did similar our syndicate pot exceeded £10k. Such a large pot gives vastly increased chance of winning compared to an individual covering just a few options.

So not only will you get our high quality racing advice for Saturday. You will also be in with a chance of a share of our syndicate’s Scoop 6 winnings.

More info on our cheap Saturday Day Pass is here

==>   Saturday Horse Racing

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on May 16, 2014

Tags: , ,

Barney Curley Inside Info

Barney Curley Hits Bookies For Millions

What a sting from Legendary Punter and owner
Barney Curley on Tuesday.

Four dark horses romped home in one day to land
one of the biggest betting coups of all time.

Irish Bookmaker Paddy Power claims to have lost £1 million
and moaned ..

There’s no doubt this is one of the
blackest days in the history of bookmaking.

 

—————————————————-

SATURDAY DAYPASS NOW OPEN

—————————————————-

 

With punters up and down the country
latching on to the gamble as they saw odds plummeting
the bookies took a right pasting.

The Irish Mirror puts the estimated total bookmaker loss
at 18.3 million Euro that’s about £15 million.

It is interesting to ponder what it would take to pull
off a similar sting yourself.

Capital is one of the biggest stumbling blocks.
Buying your own horses is not cheap.
Nor is training and maintaining them.
A huge amount of skill would be required
to buy horses that can be significantly improved
way beyond what they have shown on a race course before.
Keeping it all secret is also of course paramount.

We actually have one long term member here
who considers himself a bit of a Barney Curley.
But to much lower scale of one horse at a time.

It is a high capital game.
The reality is that even with well laid plans
on a horse you own there is still a lot that can
wrong on the day and one is never 100%
certain what other competitors really have
under their hood.

The name of the game for the owner punter is still
a matter of value edge and longer term thinking.

 

WARNING

As punters you need to be wary of total scammers.
For as far back in time as I can remember
the old “I have Inside Info” line has been used to
part the gullible from their cash.

With Barney Curley’s antics hitting the mainstream as well as racing press
I foresee an increase in rouge scammer activity along those lines.

More so than anything else tipping wise turn your bull sh*t detector to
maximum sensitivity if approached with such stuff.

 

 

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY INSIDE INFO

Guy here has many interesting contacts who feed him info at times.
Wizened and seasoned however he does not get overly excited by it.
More so just extra pieces to add to the jig saw of an individual race.

Well worth a read is the old page below where he explains the difference
between primary and secondary info.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/primaryinfo.asp

 

OTHER NEWS

Cheltenham

Bookmakers are starting to turn their attention towards Cheltenham.
Such offers would have been unheard of a few years ago but Bet Victor
announced today that they are now non runner free bet on all Cheltenham races.
One of the biggest sickners in any post bet is when the horse pulls out,
does not even run and the bookie keeps your cash.
So fair play to Victor for removing such risk for punters ..so early before Cheltenham.
Stakes are returned as a free bet.
They also give you a free bet of up to £25 if you open a new account with them.

Free IPad Air

Spreadex are offering new clients a free I PAd Air.

As you may expect to get £399 worth of high tech kit
posted to you there are a few hurdles you are expected to jump.

This particular offer is associated with their spreads section.

But worth noting that there also have a £100 double odds
new account offer for their more classic bookmaker section.

I confirmed with them this morning that any new client
can take both offers.

Worth a nosey if you do not have an account with them yet.
These links take you to the full terms fine print.

Sports Offer

FREE I Pad ( Spreads Offer )

Please do let me know if you get your free I PAd Air

 

AND FINALLY

Don’t forget our Saturday Day Pass is now open.

Guy said earlier..

Saturday’s message is shaping up very nicely and I expect
to cover most of Lingfield and Cheltenham
No account bet today. I expect that to change
on Saturday.

Here is the link

There are sample message links on that page
to help you judge the sort of thing we do here
if you have never seen it before.

Best of Luck over the weekend.

Mick
Site Admin
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on January 24, 2014

Tags: , , , ,

Horse Racing Sat Jan 4

Mathematician 1783

No Bet Today

M e s s a g e   C o n t e n t

Unusually quiet for a Saturday because the
poor weather has taken the main meetings.

Not going with a bet today. Think we should
sit this one out given the lack of choice. The
message is all Lingfield.  Rather than bother
with heavy ground at Newcastle it looks far
safer to stay with Lingfield’s interesting card.
Early message today as we start at 11.50am.

7 Previews

It’s a Number crunching message aiming to
try and find a few winners. Luck needed of
course here but I have spent plenty of time
on the seven races and I hope this pays off.

 
M e s s a g e  H i g h l i g h t s
    

No Top of the message bets today

Just letting the previews stand on their own

I am betting in the following races

11.50 – 1.25 – 2.00 – 2.35

The weather has forced our hand today and
we don’t need to bet so it looks like a quieter
low stake message cherry picking a few bets.
We could have several winners but could just
as easily get none if luck doesn’t shine on us.

 

P r o f i l e s   A n d   P r e v i e w s
 

 
L i n g f i e l d   11.50

4/1 Exclusive Waters, 4/1 Gabrial The Boss
5/1 Ocean Applause, 6/1 Copperwood
6/1 Honey Of A Kitten, 8/1 Paddy4s Saltantes
14/1 Poor Duke, 16/1 Gabrial4s Hope, 16/1 Standpoint
16/1 Tempuran, 20/1 Buzz Law, 20/1 Zenarinda.

* This is a claiming race over 10f
* 12 runners and all are rated between 62 and 70
* Very closely rated this will be very hard
* There are 47 similar races in January

* TEMPURAN has the longest absence and most weight
* From a hurdle race I think he is wrong
* There are a couple I have fitness issues with
* ZENARINDA is a 7yo mare and underraced
* She’s ran only 3 times since 2012
* BUZZ LAW has raced just once since last April
* GABRIAL4S HOPE is one of the worst weighted
* I think Stall 1 will hurt rather than help
* STANDPOINT is not running well enough

* Look at the ages of the 47 winners
* Horses aged 4 are 6-141
* Horses aged 5 are 12-100
* Horses aged 6 are 4-65
* Horses aged 7 are 9-54
* Horses aged 8 are 9-41
* Horses aged 9 are 4-37
* Horses aged 10-11 are 3-13

* Its clear older horses have the best record
* Horses aged 4 don’t have a good record
* They are just 6-141 in the 47 similar races
* I looked at horses aged 4 coming from 8f or shorter
* There was a poor 1-50 record with these types
* That horse (Young Mick) only won a maiden claimer
* He had ran 3 days before as well

* GABRIAL THE BOSS is 4 and comes from 8f
* With similar horses 1-50 he is not as safe as I’d like
* He has ability but his profile isn’t strong
* He hasn’t as yet delivered in a big field yet either
* Always held up he will need luck in running too

* POOR DUKE is another 4yo from an 8f race
* He hasn’t been running well enough for me
* EXCLUSIVE WATERS is 4 and comes from 8f
* We know horses doing this are 1-50
* Without a recent run he isn’t like a winner

* We know horses aged 4 are 6-141 in all similar races
* I looked at how many unexposed 4 year olds won
* Those horses aged 4 with under 21 career starts
* There was a 4-117 record
* 3 of these winners ran within 7 days
* Those that did not were 1-94
* That sole winner came down from 1m 5f
* It tells me I should not bet an unexposed 4yo
* Unless he has raced within the past week
* The following horses All Fail this 1-94 statistic
* EXCLUSIVE WATERS fails this statistic
* GABRIAL THE BOSS fails this statistic
* PADDY4S SALTANTES fails this statistic

* PADDY4S SALTANTES is a 4yo from a 12f handicap
* One winner did that but he was different
* He didn’t come from a 3yo race and had more backclass

* OCEAN APPLAUSE is another 4yo from 8f
* He does have a recent run and is respected
* He is exposed though and not like any winners
* The 4yo that won from 8f was far lighter raced
* OCEAN APPLAUSE has a poor strike rate
* He hasn’t won beyond a mile yet
* He hasn’t won in a big field yet
* He’s ridden by a 7lbs claimer as well
* That good recent run gets him much respect
* OCEAN APPLAUSE should really be shortlisted
* I have him “3rd best” but decided not to shortlist him
* I prefer two other horses more but he could still win

Shortlist
 
* COPPERWOOD is 9 and the oldest runner
* Horses aged 9 score well in these races
* I looked at horses aged 9 coming from 8f races
* There was a 1-5 record with horses like him
* COPPERWOOD has to be considered here
* I think he caught the eye last time
* He was ridden by a very inexperienced girl
* She had never ridden a winner before
* Today a strong professional jockey rides
* So much to like about him  but some worries
* He downgraded stables two runs ago
* He was reportedly sold for as little as 800 guineas
* That relegates him to saver not selection
 
* HONEY OF A KITTEN is 6 and comes from 8f
* I looked at horses aged 6 from 8f running within a week
* There were 2 horses with this profile and both won
* They were Malchik and Bachelors Pad
* Neither came from sellers like him
* There are a lot worse profiles though
* HONEY OF A KITTEN has to be considered

Selection

HONEY OF A KITTEN 7/1 Win Bet

COPPERWOOD 6/1 Saver Bet

 

 

L i n g f i e l d   12.20

3/1 Joyful Friend, 4/1 Lil Rockerfeller
4/1 Timeless War, 9/2 Artful Rogue, 5/1 Cosquillas
10/1 Tower Power, 25/1 Dark Tsarina, 50/1 Astrovirtue
50/1 Izbushka.

* This is a 3yo maiden over 10f
* There are 47 of these races at this time of year
* JOYFUL FRIEND comes from a 7f maiden
* 2 Winners did that but they had 9 and 10 runs
* JOYFUL FRIEND has only raced once
* None of the 47 winners were like him
* He could easily win and not a negative
* I just have better profiles so will leave him alone
* Several winners came from 8f 2yo maidens
* COSQUILLAS is a filly with 1 run doing this
* Similar horses had a 2-30 record both had long absences
* Those that ran within 40 days like her were 0-17
* COSQUILLAS wouldn’t be my first choice
* DARK TSARINA – Unraced filly not for me
* LIL ROCKERFELLER – Nothing wrong with his profile
* Could win but I’d rather have 2 runs than one
* TOWER POWER – No reason why he can’t win
* Friendless in market which raises questions
* One being whether he is here for a handicap mark

Shortlist

* I looked at horses from 2yo maidens over 8f
* Horses doing this with 2 Career starts in the past 4 weeks
* There was a 4-34 record a good solid profile
* ARTFUL ROGUE has this profile and is a positive
* TIMELESS WAR also has this positive profile
* I think one of these should be the selection
* There could be room to save on the other
* Others may prefer an each way bet
* ARTFUL ROGUE just gets the verdict

Selection

ARTFUL ROGUE 3/1

* Each way 3/1 for those that want that bet
* Win Bet 3/1 and saver on Timeless War if you don’t

 

 

 

L i n g f i e l d   12.50

5/4 Anglo Irish, 7/2 Alfaayza, 7/2 Swivel
8/1 Habdab, 14/1 Third Strike, 20/1 Fractal
25/1 Zealand, 33/1 Confucius Legend
33/1 Miss Verdoyante.

This is division 2 of the 10f maiden run at 12.20
with the same angles. It’s complicated because
of the unraced SWIVEL from the stable that won
this in 2011 with an unraced horse. HABDAB is a
filly and none of those won with either 6 or more
starts or from a Nursery so she isn’t like a winner.
ALFAAYZA is another filly and she was beaten a
long way last time. If I look at fillies that had just
been beaten 10 or more lengths last time out the
ones with 2 or more runs were 0-32 and that has
put me off ALFAAYZA who has an unsafe profile.
THIRD STRIKE has an chance if tuned up. So to
does FRACTAL but the fear with him could well
be that he is here for a handicap mark. I would
see ANGLO IRISH as the safest all round profile.

Selection

ANGLO IRISH 4/6

Alternative Option

He is odds on now so lets try for a better option
and that could well be the split stake win-place.

ANGLO IRISH 4/6 Win Bet

THIRD STRIKE 6/4 Place Bet

 

 

L i n g f i e l d   1.25
 
6/1 The Mongoose, 7/1 Ewell Place, 7/1 Iceblast
7/1 Shaolin, 8/1 Lucky Di, 8/1 The Dancing Lord
12/1 Golden Desert, 12/1 Keene4s Pointe
12/1 Perfect Mission, 12/1 Shifting Star, 14/1 Dozy Joe
14/1 Kyllachy Star, 20/1 Top Offer, 20/1 Valdaw.

* This is a 7f handicap for 0-70 rated horses
* January has 239 similar races
* I will start with the draw
* I looked at recent handicaps here with 12+ runners
* Winners were drawn in the following stalls
* 12 7 2 12 9 11 6 7 8 9 3 6 11 9 1 6 8 7 4 13
* I’d rather be drawn higher than low
* That’s with the exception of Stall 14 which rarely wins
* SHIFTING STAR is drawn 14 and a 9yo with an absence
* I can’t make a good enough case for him
* DOZY JOE – Too big a risk from Stall 1
* VALDAW is Drawn 2 not an advantage really
* He is an exposed 6yo without a recent run
* His record suggests he is much better over 6f
* Over this distance I can’t make a case for him
* GOLDEN DESERT is a 10yo
* The rare winners that age all had more recent runs
* KEENE4S POINTE is 4 with a long absence
* He comes from a 3yo handicap and looks unsafe
* He’s a bit exposed to be doing this from a bad stable
* TOP OFFER has recently downgraded stables
* He is not running nearly well enough these days
* THE DANCING LORD won a seller last time out
* The odd winners did that but all ran within 2 weeks
* Those like him that didn’t were 0-39
* He was sold cheaply after that selling win
* He’s too riSky on his first run for a new stable
* THE MONGOOSE has the same profile
* He also comes from the same seller with no recent run
* We know all winners from sellers ran within 2 weeks
* THE MONGOOSE also has a career high mark today
* His record in Class 5 Handicaps is also 0-16
* THE MONGOOSE won’t be far away
* I don’t see a strong enough case for him
* KYLLACHY STAR  is an 8 year old
* He has raced just once in 67 days
* Not a lot for an 8yo and he may want further anyway
* ICEBLAST has been absent 6 weeks
* He also has to go up in distance today
* I looked at horses up in trip absent over a month
* There was a 6-132 record with these horses
* Horses aged 5 or more doing this were just 1-66
* Horses doing this with 14 or more career runs were 0-74
* ICEBLAST looks wrong with a profile like that
* ICEBLAST has never ran here before
* He has never won at 7f before losing all 16 attempts
* ICEBLAST has to be opposed

Shortlist

* SHAOLIN is 4 and has a long absence
* I couldn’t rule him out but his profile is just average
* I don’t see enough reasons to select him
* He smells fancied and has been touted up in places

* PERFECT MISSION is hard to read
* Not convinced he has had enough racing
* Exposed 6yo and no runs within a month
* Just 2 runs in about 4 and a half months
* Throw in topweight and a poor last run
* On the positive side he has won when fresh before
* He also has a good trainer and draw
 
* LUCKY DI is a 4yo filly from a 7f handicap
* She has 15 + runs and last ran 2-3 weeks ago
* Horses with this profile were 2-12
* It’s a profile I can work with but there are reservations
* Neither winner came from a 3yo handicap like her
* She will also need luck in running as well
* Her stable are quiet winless since last September

* EWELL PLACE is 5 and drops down in trip
* I looked at similar 5 year olds absent 3-4 weeks ago
* Those beaten under 10 lengths last time out
* There was a 2-9 record with similar types
* Pound for Pound it’s the best profile here
* EWELL PLACE is more than good enough on his best from
* He lost his way as a 4yo for Dandy Nicholls
* He is last 3 runs were for David Simcock
* His last two runs have seen significant improvement
* Could be well treated on his way back

Selection

EWELL PLACE 7/1

Each Way

 

 

 

L i n g f i e l d   2.00

7/2 Joyous, 5/1 Parisian Pyramid, 5/1 Presumido
6/1 Spellmaker, 10/1 Chevise, 10/1 Dishy Guru
14/1 Two In The Pink, 16/1 Bussa 16/1 Idle Curiosity
16/1 One Way Or Another 20/1 Speedyfix.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-65 rated horses
* There are 145 similar races in January
* Draw results show Stall 12 rarely wins
* SPEEDYFIX is not well drawn and not keen on profile
* SPEEDYFIX has a 0-25 record over 6f
* Horses dropping down from 8f races were 3-72
* The 3 winners were aged 4 6 4
* ONE WAY OR ANOTHER is 11 trying to do this
* He wants further and I couldn’t bet him
* PARISIAN PYRAMID is an 8 year old
* I doubt his fitness with 1 run since last July
* He hasn’t won in over 3 and a half years
* Look at his record in fields of 11 or more
* He is just 1-49 and I want a better profile
* His best hope comes from an upgrade in stable
* I still don’t like nearly enough about him
* TWO IN THE PINK has a vulnerable profile
* She is a 4yo filly with just 1 run since last July
* No 4yo filly won with just 1 run in the last few months
* She has been popular in the market
* She is just too lightly raced in recent months for me
* DISHY GURU also has fitness problems
* He’s exposed and hasn’t run in 52 days
* He has raced just once since last July
* Not the right trainer to rely on with an underraced type
* Fillies aged 4 won 7 of the 145 races
* Fillies aged 4 with 7 or more runs have a poor 3-138 record
* These 3 winners had absences of 7 1 7 days
* Those absent longer than a week are 0-74
* IDLE CURIOSITY fails that absent 106 days
* Statistically she’s too exposed to defy her absence
* CHEVISE is a female horse absent 42 days
* Female horses absent a month or more are 3-92
* None were aged 6 or more like CHEVISE
* It’s not a good enough profile for me

Possibles

* BUSSA is 6 and comes from a recent 5f race
* Horses beaten under 10 lengths doing this were 2-14
* Both winners were fillies and BUSSA is a Male
* I can’t match him to any winner but he needs respecting
* He has recent runs and not many of these have that
* That said he probably isn’t in good enough form
* Around 16/1 he could be worth a saver

* SPELLMAKER is an unexposed 5 year old
* I found 1 similar winner like him absent a month
* That winner did have more backclass than him
* SPELLMAKER came good last time
* He needs to improve quite a bit but could do
* I couldn’t rule him out if he has come to himself

* PRESUMIDO is a lightly raced 4yo with an absence
* I looked at 4 year olds with under 9 runs
* Those absent a month
* There was a 4-24 record with these types
* Those from 6f handicaps like PRESUMIDO are 2-6
* PRESUMIDO has a good profile

* JOYOUS is a lightly raced 4yo filly with 5 runs
* She comes from a 6f handicap
* Fillies aged 4 with under 7 runs doing this are 2-8
* These 2 winners had 6 runs and JOYOUS has 5
* You have to respect her though
* She was unlucky last time from the worst draw
* She only went down in a photo after a 72 day break
* JOYOUS could be improving fast

Selection

PRESUMIDO 5/1 Win Bet

JOYOUS 5/2 Saver Bet

(Bussa 16/1 could be a second saver. Thats optonal)

 

 

L i n g f i e l d   3.10

7/2 Perfect Pasture, 7/2 Rivellino, 6/1 Noble Deed
8/1 Naabegha, 8/1 Whaileyy, 12/1 Diamond Charlie
12/1 Kyllachy Rise, 16/1 Doctor Parkes 16/1 Picansort
25/1 Capone, 25/1 Elusivity.
 
* This is a 6f handicap for 0-102 rated horses
* There are only 6 similar races in January
* No strong statistical clues with just 6 runners
* Some assumptions will have to be made

* Draw results show Stall 12 rarely wins
* DIAMOND CHARLIE has that poor draw
* Without a recent run he didn’t offer me enough
* CAPONE is 9 and has 1 run since Last May
* He won’t be fit enough to win in my view
* The longest winner was 76 days
* The only winners from 5f races were 5 year olds
* PICANSORT is 7 doing this and rejected
* He’s never won in this class or off this rating before
* NAABEGHA won a claimer last time
* Hardly the right preparation for a Class 2 handicap
* He’s also having his first run for a new stable today
* NAABEGHA is 0-16 racing in Class 3 or higher
* He’s unplaced all 5 times he ran in this class before
* NAABEGHA does not make enough appeal
* DOCTOR PARKES – I don’t want an 8yo up in trip
* Not when lacking a recent run and any course form
* NOBLE DEED wouldn’t be my first choice
* Not with just 1 run in the last 143 days
* ELUSIVITY – Not for me absent 91 days and no track form
* KYLLACHY RISE has too much to prove

Shortlist

* WHAILEYY is off 209 days and looks badly treated
* I do like the fact he is rated 102 taking on a 0-94
* He is 8lbs higher than every other horse
* That suggests to me a class edge
* Two problems for me against him
* I looked at every Class 2 handicap in January
* There are 60 of these races at every distance
* I looked at 4 year old winners with 9 or more runs
* All winners ran within 27 days and he’s absent 209 days
* His trainer also says he will need the run
* That could be misleading and not to be trusted
* But I can’t make a statistical case for him either
* WHAILEYY is therefore not my selection

* PERFECT PASTURE won a 5f race last time
* Not the sort of profile that would inspire me
* His 52 day absence may not be much help either
* He has no form on the track or in this class before
* The only likeable factor is he is unexposed
* 5 wins in a row and now trying for 6 after 52 days off
* I think that’s quite ambitious and I see flaws in him

* RIVELLINO won well last time out
* He is up in trip and up in grade today
* He is unexposed though and could improve
* I think he has to be the most likely winner

Selection

RIVELLINO 3/1

Win Bet

 

 

L i n g f i e l d   3.45

7/2 Scottish Glen, 11/2 Canadian Run, 11/2 Naaz
13/2 Indian Jack, 13/2 Ishikawa, 8/1 Soaring Spirits
8/1 The Great Gabrial, 12/1 Camachoice
14/1 Ancient Greece, 14/1 My Kingdom.

* This is a Mile handicap for 0-84 rated horses
* There are 144 similar races in January
* I don’t see a strong draw advantage
* INDIAN JACK has raced just twice since 2012
* I wanted more runs for a 6yo with topweight
* CAMACHOICE is 4 absent 220 days
* He comes from a 3yo handicap
* I found 1 winners aged 4 with long breaks doing this
* That horse (Harald Bluetooth) only had 4 run
* CAMACHOICE has 7 runs and isn’t a perfect match
* ANCIENT GREECE is 7 and absent 146 days
* He has a longer absence than any winners his age
* Have to see him as an unlikely winner
* THE GREAT GABRIAL is 5 and up in distance
* Horses aged 5 doing this have a 4-90 record
* Males aged 5 doing this absent 9+ days are 1-60
* It’s not a very alluring profile
* His best win came off 73 in a Class 5
* Today he has to race off 79 in a Class 5
* THE GREAT GABRIAL is going to need a career best
* SOARING SPIRITS is 4 and from an 8f handicap
* Last run 3-4 weeks ago and has 13 career starts
* There was a winner with 15 runs otherwise like him
* SOARING SPIRITS has some sort of chance
* Not sure there will be any improvement though
* He downgraded stables two runs ago

* SCOTTISH GLEN is 8 and won a handicap last time out
* The only 8yo winners following up ran within 20 days
* SCOTTISH GLEN is absent 26 days
* It’s hardly a statistic that could make him a negative
* Just a bit uncomfortable about landing his hat trick
* Given he is 8 and hasn’t got that recent run

* CANADIAN RUN is 4 absent 106 days
* There are 6 winners aged 4 with long absences
* They all had less weight than him
* None of them won last time out
* Just makes him a little unsafe and unlike a winner

* NAAZ is 4 and drops down from 10f
* There were 5 winning 4 year olds doing that
* They had absences of 15 12 18 23 13 days
* NAAZ is absent 26 days which is just about fine
* I’d have liked a more recent run but he’s respected
* NAAZ is down in class which will help

* MY KINGDOM is 8 and up in distance
* There was one winner with a similar profile
* MY KINGDOM has ran 8 times over 7.5f or more
* He finished unplaced on all 8 occasions
* His profile is fine just not sure about the trip
* May be best to consider him in a place bet

* ISHIKAWA is 6 and drops down from 10f
* He is Male and runs within the past month
* Horses with this profile have a 2-15 record
* ISHIKAWA has a decent profile
* He will need a career best though
* He is yet to win in this class or off his rating
* That said he has the best profile in the race

* I think this is the hardest race of the day
* I would favour a split stake bet here

Selection

ISHIKAWA 8/1 Win Bet

MY KINGDOM 3/1 Place Bet

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Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on January 3, 2014