Horses To Follow

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10 Horses of Interest

Guy introduced a new element to the full member

messages this week.

I guess it is a little bit like a Horses To Follow Style
list based loosely around horses who ran ok from a pretty bad draw.

The core premise of it is that such horses can do better in
future races run on a more level playing field that perhaps as basic assessmentof their poor draw finishing position may lead on to believe.

There is of course a degree of appreciation for such stuff in betting
markets.

As such it can help to look at draw bias in a slightly different
stance than is commonly reported to the crowds.

He said to full members:

Draw Statistics are a major part of my daily message.

I don’t know anyone who looks at Draw biases in the

same way as I do and I think it works. It is impossible

to get the Draw right all the time but I think we do it

very well and often find the draw matters in races at

distances and tracks that most people do not realise.

I decided to come up with this list of horses to follow.

I have chosen them purely on the following criteria.

* I can illustrate they had a very bad draw last time

* I watched their last run on video and felt positive

 

He then went on to list ten horses he had noted

as worth adding to this list.

Below is one of his notes.

 

PROCLAMATIONOFWAR

* Ran well from Stall 15 at Beverley last time

* Since 2013 there have been 118 Beverley handicaps

* Thats 118 Beverley races at any and every distance

* No horse has won from 13 or higher at Beverley 2013-14

* That is over any distance and not just over 5f

* He was badly disadvantaged from Stall 15 in this race

 

With Horse To Follow lists I guess there may

be two main style of punter approach.

Those prone to seek mechanical methods

that require little thought may be more likely to

do something like bet each horse for the next X runnings

or until it wins.

Others will treat it just as a reminder of a horse

worthy of scrutiny and consideration in a future race.

Guy I guess would fall into that second camp.

He is not going to Account Bet something

just because it ran ok from a poor draw last time

and act blind to other key factors of form, other runners

and with zero consideration to the concept of value odds.

As it happens Proclamationofwar is running this evening (
Friday )

It is the first of his Ten Horse list to have a live run.

He covered the race in his Profiles and Previews section.

Profiles and Previews I guess you can consider as extra analysis
and viewpoint for races he examines while looking for firmer strong advices
for either his Optional Account of Full Account tips.

It is not uncommon for him to research and write five or six
several races daily yet find not one horse worth a proper bet.

His is a totally different thought train to the average
mug punter who more so says..”I am going to bet in this race..which horse will it be?”

I have copied that Profile & Preview piece below for
you

 

Musselburgh 8.40

Racing Posts Odds

6/4 Twin Appeal, 7/2 Beautiful Stranger, 6/1 Cahal

10/1 China In My Hands, 10/1 Miss Acclaimed, 10/1 Mitcd

10/1 Proclamationofwar, Torridon, 20/1 Lomond Lassie

33/1 Connexion Francais.

I sent a list recently of “10 horses of interest”
that had

recently run well from bad draws. The first of these is

running in this race. PROCLAMATIONOFWAR is on the

list so I need to mention him. He has been gambled.

Statistically he is quite weak though. I liked his race

over 5f at Beverley but he moves up to 7f today. In all

similar races Male horses going from 5f to 7f are 0-40

in similar races and I don’t like his profile. I will leave

it up to you but I couldn’t select him. Perhaps the split

stake is best with TWIN APPEAL having a good profile.

* Horses coming from 7f handicaps

* Running within 3 weeks

* 4 career starts

* 2 runs this season

* Starting under 10/1

* Beaten last time

* 4 horses had this profile finishing 2 W 4 W

* TWIN APPEAL has this profile

I don’t really want to bet TWIN APPEAL at the price

PROCLAMATIONOFWAR my draw horse is unsafe statistically

Maybe the compromise is a split stake bet

PROCLAMATIONOFWAR to place 11/0

TWIN APPEAL to win 6/4

 

Anyhow I just wanted let you know about this new angle on
the full service.

You may see future reference to it in Saturday Day Pass messages.

It could perhaps be notes on a new horse added to the list
or info about a past addition running that day.

If so at least now you have a fair idea of what it is all
about.

Best Wishes

Mick

Site Admin

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

 

NB If you want in for Guy’s Saturday Analysis here is the
link

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass

Note the 12 noon cut off point.

( this pos was originally sent by email friday evening )

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on May 24, 2014

Scoop 6 Syndicate

LATEST NEWS: Scoop 6 £10 Million Rollover Special

We are running a multi thousand pound Scoop 6 syndicate with full members here for Saturday May 17th.

50 tickets in the syndicate will be bought on behalf of our group of daypass buyers this week. Any profits due on these 50 tickets will be paid out to this week’s daypass buyers. We will email day pass members on Saturday lunch time with a full list of all horses covered in our big syndicate perm. The last few times we did similar our syndicate pot exceeded £10k. Such a large pot gives vastly increased chance of winning compared to an individual covering just a few options.

So not only will you get our high quality racing advice for Saturday. You will also be in with a chance of a share of our syndicate’s Scoop 6 winnings.

More info on our cheap Saturday Day Pass is here

==>   Saturday Horse Racing

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on May 16, 2014

Tags: , ,

Barney Curley Inside Info

Barney Curley Hits Bookies For Millions

What a sting from Legendary Punter and owner
Barney Curley on Tuesday.

Four dark horses romped home in one day to land
one of the biggest betting coups of all time.

Irish Bookmaker Paddy Power claims to have lost £1 million
and moaned ..

There’s no doubt this is one of the
blackest days in the history of bookmaking.

 

—————————————————-

SATURDAY DAYPASS NOW OPEN

—————————————————-

 

With punters up and down the country
latching on to the gamble as they saw odds plummeting
the bookies took a right pasting.

The Irish Mirror puts the estimated total bookmaker loss
at 18.3 million Euro that’s about £15 million.

It is interesting to ponder what it would take to pull
off a similar sting yourself.

Capital is one of the biggest stumbling blocks.
Buying your own horses is not cheap.
Nor is training and maintaining them.
A huge amount of skill would be required
to buy horses that can be significantly improved
way beyond what they have shown on a race course before.
Keeping it all secret is also of course paramount.

We actually have one long term member here
who considers himself a bit of a Barney Curley.
But to much lower scale of one horse at a time.

It is a high capital game.
The reality is that even with well laid plans
on a horse you own there is still a lot that can
wrong on the day and one is never 100%
certain what other competitors really have
under their hood.

The name of the game for the owner punter is still
a matter of value edge and longer term thinking.

 

WARNING

As punters you need to be wary of total scammers.
For as far back in time as I can remember
the old “I have Inside Info” line has been used to
part the gullible from their cash.

With Barney Curley’s antics hitting the mainstream as well as racing press
I foresee an increase in rouge scammer activity along those lines.

More so than anything else tipping wise turn your bull sh*t detector to
maximum sensitivity if approached with such stuff.

 

 

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY INSIDE INFO

Guy here has many interesting contacts who feed him info at times.
Wizened and seasoned however he does not get overly excited by it.
More so just extra pieces to add to the jig saw of an individual race.

Well worth a read is the old page below where he explains the difference
between primary and secondary info.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/primaryinfo.asp

 

OTHER NEWS

Cheltenham

Bookmakers are starting to turn their attention towards Cheltenham.
Such offers would have been unheard of a few years ago but Bet Victor
announced today that they are now non runner free bet on all Cheltenham races.
One of the biggest sickners in any post bet is when the horse pulls out,
does not even run and the bookie keeps your cash.
So fair play to Victor for removing such risk for punters ..so early before Cheltenham.
Stakes are returned as a free bet.
They also give you a free bet of up to £25 if you open a new account with them.

Free IPad Air

Spreadex are offering new clients a free I PAd Air.

As you may expect to get £399 worth of high tech kit
posted to you there are a few hurdles you are expected to jump.

This particular offer is associated with their spreads section.

But worth noting that there also have a £100 double odds
new account offer for their more classic bookmaker section.

I confirmed with them this morning that any new client
can take both offers.

Worth a nosey if you do not have an account with them yet.
These links take you to the full terms fine print.

Sports Offer

FREE I Pad ( Spreads Offer )

Please do let me know if you get your free I PAd Air

 

AND FINALLY

Don’t forget our Saturday Day Pass is now open.

Guy said earlier..

Saturday’s message is shaping up very nicely and I expect
to cover most of Lingfield and Cheltenham
No account bet today. I expect that to change
on Saturday.

Here is the link

There are sample message links on that page
to help you judge the sort of thing we do here
if you have never seen it before.

Best of Luck over the weekend.

Mick
Site Admin
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on January 24, 2014

Tags: , , , ,

Horse Racing Sat Jan 4

Mathematician 1783

No Bet Today

M e s s a g e   C o n t e n t

Unusually quiet for a Saturday because the
poor weather has taken the main meetings.

Not going with a bet today. Think we should
sit this one out given the lack of choice. The
message is all Lingfield.  Rather than bother
with heavy ground at Newcastle it looks far
safer to stay with Lingfield’s interesting card.
Early message today as we start at 11.50am.

7 Previews

It’s a Number crunching message aiming to
try and find a few winners. Luck needed of
course here but I have spent plenty of time
on the seven races and I hope this pays off.

 
M e s s a g e  H i g h l i g h t s
    

No Top of the message bets today

Just letting the previews stand on their own

I am betting in the following races

11.50 – 1.25 – 2.00 – 2.35

The weather has forced our hand today and
we don’t need to bet so it looks like a quieter
low stake message cherry picking a few bets.
We could have several winners but could just
as easily get none if luck doesn’t shine on us.

 

P r o f i l e s   A n d   P r e v i e w s
 

 
L i n g f i e l d   11.50

4/1 Exclusive Waters, 4/1 Gabrial The Boss
5/1 Ocean Applause, 6/1 Copperwood
6/1 Honey Of A Kitten, 8/1 Paddy4s Saltantes
14/1 Poor Duke, 16/1 Gabrial4s Hope, 16/1 Standpoint
16/1 Tempuran, 20/1 Buzz Law, 20/1 Zenarinda.

* This is a claiming race over 10f
* 12 runners and all are rated between 62 and 70
* Very closely rated this will be very hard
* There are 47 similar races in January

* TEMPURAN has the longest absence and most weight
* From a hurdle race I think he is wrong
* There are a couple I have fitness issues with
* ZENARINDA is a 7yo mare and underraced
* She’s ran only 3 times since 2012
* BUZZ LAW has raced just once since last April
* GABRIAL4S HOPE is one of the worst weighted
* I think Stall 1 will hurt rather than help
* STANDPOINT is not running well enough

* Look at the ages of the 47 winners
* Horses aged 4 are 6-141
* Horses aged 5 are 12-100
* Horses aged 6 are 4-65
* Horses aged 7 are 9-54
* Horses aged 8 are 9-41
* Horses aged 9 are 4-37
* Horses aged 10-11 are 3-13

* Its clear older horses have the best record
* Horses aged 4 don’t have a good record
* They are just 6-141 in the 47 similar races
* I looked at horses aged 4 coming from 8f or shorter
* There was a poor 1-50 record with these types
* That horse (Young Mick) only won a maiden claimer
* He had ran 3 days before as well

* GABRIAL THE BOSS is 4 and comes from 8f
* With similar horses 1-50 he is not as safe as I’d like
* He has ability but his profile isn’t strong
* He hasn’t as yet delivered in a big field yet either
* Always held up he will need luck in running too

* POOR DUKE is another 4yo from an 8f race
* He hasn’t been running well enough for me
* EXCLUSIVE WATERS is 4 and comes from 8f
* We know horses doing this are 1-50
* Without a recent run he isn’t like a winner

* We know horses aged 4 are 6-141 in all similar races
* I looked at how many unexposed 4 year olds won
* Those horses aged 4 with under 21 career starts
* There was a 4-117 record
* 3 of these winners ran within 7 days
* Those that did not were 1-94
* That sole winner came down from 1m 5f
* It tells me I should not bet an unexposed 4yo
* Unless he has raced within the past week
* The following horses All Fail this 1-94 statistic
* EXCLUSIVE WATERS fails this statistic
* GABRIAL THE BOSS fails this statistic
* PADDY4S SALTANTES fails this statistic

* PADDY4S SALTANTES is a 4yo from a 12f handicap
* One winner did that but he was different
* He didn’t come from a 3yo race and had more backclass

* OCEAN APPLAUSE is another 4yo from 8f
* He does have a recent run and is respected
* He is exposed though and not like any winners
* The 4yo that won from 8f was far lighter raced
* OCEAN APPLAUSE has a poor strike rate
* He hasn’t won beyond a mile yet
* He hasn’t won in a big field yet
* He’s ridden by a 7lbs claimer as well
* That good recent run gets him much respect
* OCEAN APPLAUSE should really be shortlisted
* I have him “3rd best” but decided not to shortlist him
* I prefer two other horses more but he could still win

Shortlist
 
* COPPERWOOD is 9 and the oldest runner
* Horses aged 9 score well in these races
* I looked at horses aged 9 coming from 8f races
* There was a 1-5 record with horses like him
* COPPERWOOD has to be considered here
* I think he caught the eye last time
* He was ridden by a very inexperienced girl
* She had never ridden a winner before
* Today a strong professional jockey rides
* So much to like about him  but some worries
* He downgraded stables two runs ago
* He was reportedly sold for as little as 800 guineas
* That relegates him to saver not selection
 
* HONEY OF A KITTEN is 6 and comes from 8f
* I looked at horses aged 6 from 8f running within a week
* There were 2 horses with this profile and both won
* They were Malchik and Bachelors Pad
* Neither came from sellers like him
* There are a lot worse profiles though
* HONEY OF A KITTEN has to be considered

Selection

HONEY OF A KITTEN 7/1 Win Bet

COPPERWOOD 6/1 Saver Bet

 

 

L i n g f i e l d   12.20

3/1 Joyful Friend, 4/1 Lil Rockerfeller
4/1 Timeless War, 9/2 Artful Rogue, 5/1 Cosquillas
10/1 Tower Power, 25/1 Dark Tsarina, 50/1 Astrovirtue
50/1 Izbushka.

* This is a 3yo maiden over 10f
* There are 47 of these races at this time of year
* JOYFUL FRIEND comes from a 7f maiden
* 2 Winners did that but they had 9 and 10 runs
* JOYFUL FRIEND has only raced once
* None of the 47 winners were like him
* He could easily win and not a negative
* I just have better profiles so will leave him alone
* Several winners came from 8f 2yo maidens
* COSQUILLAS is a filly with 1 run doing this
* Similar horses had a 2-30 record both had long absences
* Those that ran within 40 days like her were 0-17
* COSQUILLAS wouldn’t be my first choice
* DARK TSARINA – Unraced filly not for me
* LIL ROCKERFELLER – Nothing wrong with his profile
* Could win but I’d rather have 2 runs than one
* TOWER POWER – No reason why he can’t win
* Friendless in market which raises questions
* One being whether he is here for a handicap mark

Shortlist

* I looked at horses from 2yo maidens over 8f
* Horses doing this with 2 Career starts in the past 4 weeks
* There was a 4-34 record a good solid profile
* ARTFUL ROGUE has this profile and is a positive
* TIMELESS WAR also has this positive profile
* I think one of these should be the selection
* There could be room to save on the other
* Others may prefer an each way bet
* ARTFUL ROGUE just gets the verdict

Selection

ARTFUL ROGUE 3/1

* Each way 3/1 for those that want that bet
* Win Bet 3/1 and saver on Timeless War if you don’t

 

 

 

L i n g f i e l d   12.50

5/4 Anglo Irish, 7/2 Alfaayza, 7/2 Swivel
8/1 Habdab, 14/1 Third Strike, 20/1 Fractal
25/1 Zealand, 33/1 Confucius Legend
33/1 Miss Verdoyante.

This is division 2 of the 10f maiden run at 12.20
with the same angles. It’s complicated because
of the unraced SWIVEL from the stable that won
this in 2011 with an unraced horse. HABDAB is a
filly and none of those won with either 6 or more
starts or from a Nursery so she isn’t like a winner.
ALFAAYZA is another filly and she was beaten a
long way last time. If I look at fillies that had just
been beaten 10 or more lengths last time out the
ones with 2 or more runs were 0-32 and that has
put me off ALFAAYZA who has an unsafe profile.
THIRD STRIKE has an chance if tuned up. So to
does FRACTAL but the fear with him could well
be that he is here for a handicap mark. I would
see ANGLO IRISH as the safest all round profile.

Selection

ANGLO IRISH 4/6

Alternative Option

He is odds on now so lets try for a better option
and that could well be the split stake win-place.

ANGLO IRISH 4/6 Win Bet

THIRD STRIKE 6/4 Place Bet

 

 

L i n g f i e l d   1.25
 
6/1 The Mongoose, 7/1 Ewell Place, 7/1 Iceblast
7/1 Shaolin, 8/1 Lucky Di, 8/1 The Dancing Lord
12/1 Golden Desert, 12/1 Keene4s Pointe
12/1 Perfect Mission, 12/1 Shifting Star, 14/1 Dozy Joe
14/1 Kyllachy Star, 20/1 Top Offer, 20/1 Valdaw.

* This is a 7f handicap for 0-70 rated horses
* January has 239 similar races
* I will start with the draw
* I looked at recent handicaps here with 12+ runners
* Winners were drawn in the following stalls
* 12 7 2 12 9 11 6 7 8 9 3 6 11 9 1 6 8 7 4 13
* I’d rather be drawn higher than low
* That’s with the exception of Stall 14 which rarely wins
* SHIFTING STAR is drawn 14 and a 9yo with an absence
* I can’t make a good enough case for him
* DOZY JOE – Too big a risk from Stall 1
* VALDAW is Drawn 2 not an advantage really
* He is an exposed 6yo without a recent run
* His record suggests he is much better over 6f
* Over this distance I can’t make a case for him
* GOLDEN DESERT is a 10yo
* The rare winners that age all had more recent runs
* KEENE4S POINTE is 4 with a long absence
* He comes from a 3yo handicap and looks unsafe
* He’s a bit exposed to be doing this from a bad stable
* TOP OFFER has recently downgraded stables
* He is not running nearly well enough these days
* THE DANCING LORD won a seller last time out
* The odd winners did that but all ran within 2 weeks
* Those like him that didn’t were 0-39
* He was sold cheaply after that selling win
* He’s too riSky on his first run for a new stable
* THE MONGOOSE has the same profile
* He also comes from the same seller with no recent run
* We know all winners from sellers ran within 2 weeks
* THE MONGOOSE also has a career high mark today
* His record in Class 5 Handicaps is also 0-16
* THE MONGOOSE won’t be far away
* I don’t see a strong enough case for him
* KYLLACHY STAR  is an 8 year old
* He has raced just once in 67 days
* Not a lot for an 8yo and he may want further anyway
* ICEBLAST has been absent 6 weeks
* He also has to go up in distance today
* I looked at horses up in trip absent over a month
* There was a 6-132 record with these horses
* Horses aged 5 or more doing this were just 1-66
* Horses doing this with 14 or more career runs were 0-74
* ICEBLAST looks wrong with a profile like that
* ICEBLAST has never ran here before
* He has never won at 7f before losing all 16 attempts
* ICEBLAST has to be opposed

Shortlist

* SHAOLIN is 4 and has a long absence
* I couldn’t rule him out but his profile is just average
* I don’t see enough reasons to select him
* He smells fancied and has been touted up in places

* PERFECT MISSION is hard to read
* Not convinced he has had enough racing
* Exposed 6yo and no runs within a month
* Just 2 runs in about 4 and a half months
* Throw in topweight and a poor last run
* On the positive side he has won when fresh before
* He also has a good trainer and draw
 
* LUCKY DI is a 4yo filly from a 7f handicap
* She has 15 + runs and last ran 2-3 weeks ago
* Horses with this profile were 2-12
* It’s a profile I can work with but there are reservations
* Neither winner came from a 3yo handicap like her
* She will also need luck in running as well
* Her stable are quiet winless since last September

* EWELL PLACE is 5 and drops down in trip
* I looked at similar 5 year olds absent 3-4 weeks ago
* Those beaten under 10 lengths last time out
* There was a 2-9 record with similar types
* Pound for Pound it’s the best profile here
* EWELL PLACE is more than good enough on his best from
* He lost his way as a 4yo for Dandy Nicholls
* He is last 3 runs were for David Simcock
* His last two runs have seen significant improvement
* Could be well treated on his way back

Selection

EWELL PLACE 7/1

Each Way

 

 

 

L i n g f i e l d   2.00

7/2 Joyous, 5/1 Parisian Pyramid, 5/1 Presumido
6/1 Spellmaker, 10/1 Chevise, 10/1 Dishy Guru
14/1 Two In The Pink, 16/1 Bussa 16/1 Idle Curiosity
16/1 One Way Or Another 20/1 Speedyfix.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-65 rated horses
* There are 145 similar races in January
* Draw results show Stall 12 rarely wins
* SPEEDYFIX is not well drawn and not keen on profile
* SPEEDYFIX has a 0-25 record over 6f
* Horses dropping down from 8f races were 3-72
* The 3 winners were aged 4 6 4
* ONE WAY OR ANOTHER is 11 trying to do this
* He wants further and I couldn’t bet him
* PARISIAN PYRAMID is an 8 year old
* I doubt his fitness with 1 run since last July
* He hasn’t won in over 3 and a half years
* Look at his record in fields of 11 or more
* He is just 1-49 and I want a better profile
* His best hope comes from an upgrade in stable
* I still don’t like nearly enough about him
* TWO IN THE PINK has a vulnerable profile
* She is a 4yo filly with just 1 run since last July
* No 4yo filly won with just 1 run in the last few months
* She has been popular in the market
* She is just too lightly raced in recent months for me
* DISHY GURU also has fitness problems
* He’s exposed and hasn’t run in 52 days
* He has raced just once since last July
* Not the right trainer to rely on with an underraced type
* Fillies aged 4 won 7 of the 145 races
* Fillies aged 4 with 7 or more runs have a poor 3-138 record
* These 3 winners had absences of 7 1 7 days
* Those absent longer than a week are 0-74
* IDLE CURIOSITY fails that absent 106 days
* Statistically she’s too exposed to defy her absence
* CHEVISE is a female horse absent 42 days
* Female horses absent a month or more are 3-92
* None were aged 6 or more like CHEVISE
* It’s not a good enough profile for me

Possibles

* BUSSA is 6 and comes from a recent 5f race
* Horses beaten under 10 lengths doing this were 2-14
* Both winners were fillies and BUSSA is a Male
* I can’t match him to any winner but he needs respecting
* He has recent runs and not many of these have that
* That said he probably isn’t in good enough form
* Around 16/1 he could be worth a saver

* SPELLMAKER is an unexposed 5 year old
* I found 1 similar winner like him absent a month
* That winner did have more backclass than him
* SPELLMAKER came good last time
* He needs to improve quite a bit but could do
* I couldn’t rule him out if he has come to himself

* PRESUMIDO is a lightly raced 4yo with an absence
* I looked at 4 year olds with under 9 runs
* Those absent a month
* There was a 4-24 record with these types
* Those from 6f handicaps like PRESUMIDO are 2-6
* PRESUMIDO has a good profile

* JOYOUS is a lightly raced 4yo filly with 5 runs
* She comes from a 6f handicap
* Fillies aged 4 with under 7 runs doing this are 2-8
* These 2 winners had 6 runs and JOYOUS has 5
* You have to respect her though
* She was unlucky last time from the worst draw
* She only went down in a photo after a 72 day break
* JOYOUS could be improving fast

Selection

PRESUMIDO 5/1 Win Bet

JOYOUS 5/2 Saver Bet

(Bussa 16/1 could be a second saver. Thats optonal)

 

 

L i n g f i e l d   3.10

7/2 Perfect Pasture, 7/2 Rivellino, 6/1 Noble Deed
8/1 Naabegha, 8/1 Whaileyy, 12/1 Diamond Charlie
12/1 Kyllachy Rise, 16/1 Doctor Parkes 16/1 Picansort
25/1 Capone, 25/1 Elusivity.
 
* This is a 6f handicap for 0-102 rated horses
* There are only 6 similar races in January
* No strong statistical clues with just 6 runners
* Some assumptions will have to be made

* Draw results show Stall 12 rarely wins
* DIAMOND CHARLIE has that poor draw
* Without a recent run he didn’t offer me enough
* CAPONE is 9 and has 1 run since Last May
* He won’t be fit enough to win in my view
* The longest winner was 76 days
* The only winners from 5f races were 5 year olds
* PICANSORT is 7 doing this and rejected
* He’s never won in this class or off this rating before
* NAABEGHA won a claimer last time
* Hardly the right preparation for a Class 2 handicap
* He’s also having his first run for a new stable today
* NAABEGHA is 0-16 racing in Class 3 or higher
* He’s unplaced all 5 times he ran in this class before
* NAABEGHA does not make enough appeal
* DOCTOR PARKES – I don’t want an 8yo up in trip
* Not when lacking a recent run and any course form
* NOBLE DEED wouldn’t be my first choice
* Not with just 1 run in the last 143 days
* ELUSIVITY – Not for me absent 91 days and no track form
* KYLLACHY RISE has too much to prove

Shortlist

* WHAILEYY is off 209 days and looks badly treated
* I do like the fact he is rated 102 taking on a 0-94
* He is 8lbs higher than every other horse
* That suggests to me a class edge
* Two problems for me against him
* I looked at every Class 2 handicap in January
* There are 60 of these races at every distance
* I looked at 4 year old winners with 9 or more runs
* All winners ran within 27 days and he’s absent 209 days
* His trainer also says he will need the run
* That could be misleading and not to be trusted
* But I can’t make a statistical case for him either
* WHAILEYY is therefore not my selection

* PERFECT PASTURE won a 5f race last time
* Not the sort of profile that would inspire me
* His 52 day absence may not be much help either
* He has no form on the track or in this class before
* The only likeable factor is he is unexposed
* 5 wins in a row and now trying for 6 after 52 days off
* I think that’s quite ambitious and I see flaws in him

* RIVELLINO won well last time out
* He is up in trip and up in grade today
* He is unexposed though and could improve
* I think he has to be the most likely winner

Selection

RIVELLINO 3/1

Win Bet

 

 

L i n g f i e l d   3.45

7/2 Scottish Glen, 11/2 Canadian Run, 11/2 Naaz
13/2 Indian Jack, 13/2 Ishikawa, 8/1 Soaring Spirits
8/1 The Great Gabrial, 12/1 Camachoice
14/1 Ancient Greece, 14/1 My Kingdom.

* This is a Mile handicap for 0-84 rated horses
* There are 144 similar races in January
* I don’t see a strong draw advantage
* INDIAN JACK has raced just twice since 2012
* I wanted more runs for a 6yo with topweight
* CAMACHOICE is 4 absent 220 days
* He comes from a 3yo handicap
* I found 1 winners aged 4 with long breaks doing this
* That horse (Harald Bluetooth) only had 4 run
* CAMACHOICE has 7 runs and isn’t a perfect match
* ANCIENT GREECE is 7 and absent 146 days
* He has a longer absence than any winners his age
* Have to see him as an unlikely winner
* THE GREAT GABRIAL is 5 and up in distance
* Horses aged 5 doing this have a 4-90 record
* Males aged 5 doing this absent 9+ days are 1-60
* It’s not a very alluring profile
* His best win came off 73 in a Class 5
* Today he has to race off 79 in a Class 5
* THE GREAT GABRIAL is going to need a career best
* SOARING SPIRITS is 4 and from an 8f handicap
* Last run 3-4 weeks ago and has 13 career starts
* There was a winner with 15 runs otherwise like him
* SOARING SPIRITS has some sort of chance
* Not sure there will be any improvement though
* He downgraded stables two runs ago

* SCOTTISH GLEN is 8 and won a handicap last time out
* The only 8yo winners following up ran within 20 days
* SCOTTISH GLEN is absent 26 days
* It’s hardly a statistic that could make him a negative
* Just a bit uncomfortable about landing his hat trick
* Given he is 8 and hasn’t got that recent run

* CANADIAN RUN is 4 absent 106 days
* There are 6 winners aged 4 with long absences
* They all had less weight than him
* None of them won last time out
* Just makes him a little unsafe and unlike a winner

* NAAZ is 4 and drops down from 10f
* There were 5 winning 4 year olds doing that
* They had absences of 15 12 18 23 13 days
* NAAZ is absent 26 days which is just about fine
* I’d have liked a more recent run but he’s respected
* NAAZ is down in class which will help

* MY KINGDOM is 8 and up in distance
* There was one winner with a similar profile
* MY KINGDOM has ran 8 times over 7.5f or more
* He finished unplaced on all 8 occasions
* His profile is fine just not sure about the trip
* May be best to consider him in a place bet

* ISHIKAWA is 6 and drops down from 10f
* He is Male and runs within the past month
* Horses with this profile have a 2-15 record
* ISHIKAWA has a decent profile
* He will need a career best though
* He is yet to win in this class or off his rating
* That said he has the best profile in the race

* I think this is the hardest race of the day
* I would favour a split stake bet here

Selection

ISHIKAWA 8/1 Win Bet

MY KINGDOM 3/1 Place Bet

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Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on January 3, 2014

What A Complete Disaster

Copy of Paddy Power Cheltenham Meeting Day 1

Was your own day as a disasterous as this?

Must try harder tomorrow

Join me at http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/offers/paddy-power-cheltenham/ppcheltdeal.asp if you fancy it.

 

Mathematician 1733

No Account Bet Today

Message Content
 
Today is the start of the three day Cheltenham
November meeting. It is time consuming work
here so decisions needs to be made about the
other cards and how much we should do. This
is a difficult balancing act we have to get right
each day. I was going to leave Lingfield’s card
but I got dragged into the 3.05 and included it.

I don’t like anything at Newcastle. I’m pleased
with my Cheltenham work at least as much as
I can be given how competitive it is. We face
the same problem for the next three days. No
problem doing most Cheltenham races but if
I do then lots of other races wont be covered.

No Account Bet

M e s s a g e    H i g h l i g h t s
 
Happy with my Cheltenham work. The game
today is surely to try back winners here and
enjoy the meeting. I shall list the  selections
but first of all a quick mention at Lingfield.

Lingfield 3.05

GREAT GABRIAL 9/4

There was definitely a potential bet here in
THE GREAT GABRIAL. I do not like favourite
Leonard Thomas with just one career start.
Several others had flaws. I thought the safe
bet here was GREAT GABRIAL each way so
did consider him as a bet. However that’s a
decision that could have been taken away.
He has been backed from 4/1 to 9/4 which
kills my interest in an each way bet. There
is always the option of a win bet and that’s
still the best option in the race. I’d suggest
a bet but at the new price not a strong one.

C h e l t e n h a m   S e l e c t i o n s

Cheltenham 1.05 – STANDING OVATION 6/4 Half Stakes 
Cheltenham 1.05 – VICTRIX GALE 7/1 Half Stakes

Cheltenham 1.35 – ANAY TURGE 8/1 Each Way

Cheltenham 2.05 – THE ROMFORD PELE 7/1  Win Bet
Cheltenham 2.05 – TAQUIN DU SEUIL 5/2  Saver Bet

Cheltenham 2.40 – WHISPER  7/1 Each Way

Cheltenham 3.15 – BALTHAZAR KING 7/4 Win Bet

Cheltenham 3.50 – QUICK JACK 5/2 Win Bet

 
I don’t think there is anything award winning here
but I like them all. The question is now whether I
want to frame a bet from all the possible options.

The strongest two bets are below. I will suggest
combining them in 2 wins and each way double.

Todays Best Bet

Lingfield 3.05 – GREAT GABRIAL 2/1

Cheltenham 3.50 – QUICK JACK 5/2

* Win Bet on Both horses

* Each Way Double on Both

* For each #10 Staked on this bet
* #3 on Both and #2 Each Way Double

I really wanted the each way single on
GREAT GABRIAL. I could stake this bet
on the account but I feel we have lost
a lot of the value and why now create
an artificially new bet with more risks.
Happy to bet these myself and suggest
a bet but I’ll keep it off the account. No
doubt the value has gone for any bet.

T h u r s d a y s  S u m m a r y

That was simply a master class and I warned
you it might have been. I suggested that was
worth following. One serious message done
properly and we routed Southwell. Happy to
be self critical when its deserved but I nailed
it. Started with a saver Dynastic winning 10/1.

That was a good save in a very hard race. In
the next race we backed two and a saver so
to get the 1st 2nd and 3rd was lovely and as
Black Geronimo was one of the main bets it
returned a good profit. Sky Ranger finished
3rd but a non runner made it 7 runners. That
means a loser but I think its obvious I would
not have done that if I had known about the
withdrawal. We got the favourite beaten as
well and shortlisted the winner but we were
done by a non runner. BARBADOS BOB won
and was my best bet on that card. This race
was affected by the favourite not running so
many backing him earlier will have suffered
the Rule 4. He ended up short but at least he
won. I underestimated Silly Billy and that is
the only race we got wrong. BITAPHON won
easily yet another winner. Whilst it was only
a split stake bet I finished with SHARAARAH
winning at 6/1. The highlight for me was the
Racing Post Ratings analysis. I used it twice.

In the 12.50pm they gave us the 1st 2nd 3rd.
In the 3.50pm they showed without a doubt
that SHARAARAH despite a problem profile
and a bad last run was completely different
class and he won like it. They were part of
the reasons why it was so good a message.

 

P R O F I L E S   &   P R EV I E W S

C h e l t e n h a m   1.05

13/8 Standing Ovation, 6/1 Victrix Gale
7/1 Ruben Cotter, 8/1 Handy Andy, 8/1 Hunters Lodge
9/1 Fredo, 10/1 Imperial Circus, 10/1 Mr Moss
16/1 Major Malarkey, 33/1 Charingworth.

* This is a 3m Amateur Riders Handicap Chase
* 17 renewals of this race and no similar elsewhere
* STANDING OVATION will be hard to beat
* His stable love this race and have won it 5 times
* This is easier than the Wincanton race he won
* Less runners and lower Average Official Ratings
* He’s still well handicapped and progressive
* Against him is no Cheltenham experience
* He has a better record on right handed tracks
* I don’t buy that. He has only just come right
* He hasn’t ran left handed since he started to improve

* MR MOSS isn’t badly handicapped off 126
* He prepped over hurdles recently and none did that
* His weight and rating of 138 worries me
* High weights won when this was a Class 5 races
* That was years ago and the race has been upgraded
* Since it was upgraded to a Class 3-2 Handicap
* The highest rated winner was rated 134
* The Highest weight carried was 11st 4lbs
* MR MOSS fails both those angles
* RUBEN COTTER also fails that as well
* RUBEN COTTER is a seasonal debutant aged 7
* No horse aged 7 or 8 won this race first time out
* None won first time out with his weight either
* RUBEN COTTER also comes from a Novice Chase
* No horse won this from a Novice Chase
* It’s asking a lot to give the favourite 12lbs
* Especially when a seasonal debutant
* CHARINGWORTH – Not for me first time out
* Not sure he will stay 3 miles either
* MAJOR MALARKEY has never won off his rating
* Not sure I’d trust him with a long absence
* His only race here was when he fell at the 3rd
* HANDY ANDY may not appreciate the track
* He didn’t do enough for me last time
* FREDO – He finished just behind Handy Andy last time
* I’d have to question whether he did enough
* He needed his first run of the season
* He looks one of the more reasonable e/w options
* There are flaws in parts of his profile though
* Not keen he is exposed without Grade 1-2 backclass
* IMPERIAL CIRCUS is a positive and could win
* I just don’t think he will beat the favourite
* Not off the same weight with an inexperienced rider
* HUNTERS LODGE was 3rd in this race last year
* That was a good run after just 2 Chase starts
* He has just won the October Amateur race here
* He still looks quite well treated given his wins here
* VICTRIX GALE – This mare needs a career best
* It’s not unreasonable to think she could deliver it
* With an absence and from hurdles she looks unsafe
* You couldn’t rule her out and she is like many
* If the favourite doesn’t deliver she could do

Selection

This does revolve around STANDING OVATION our
winner last Saturday. He has the best chance here
and may easily bolt up. There are question marks
he has to answer like the track and several races
in a short period of time.  If he fails then I think it
could be any of three or four. I think you have to
make sure you can’t lose if he wins. You could be
wise to have a split stake bet. STANDING OVATION
to win to 1/2 stakes which buys him out of the race
and the other half on something else. Personally
I think he will win. He is a short price and there’s
a sensible case for the split stake bet at the odds.

Split Stake Bet

STANDING OVATION 6/4 Half Stakes to win

VICTRIX GALE 7/1 Half Stakes to win

C h e l t e n h a m   1.35

5/1 Eastlake, 7/1 Renard, 10/1 Anay Turge
10/1 Elenika, 10/1 Parsnip Pete, 12/1 Ballygarvey
12/1 Have You Seen Me, 12/1 Sew On Target
12/1 Tindaro, 14/1 Ballyadam Brook, 14/1 Shadows Lengthen
14/1 Theatrical Star, 16/1 De Faoithesdream
16/1 Gus Macrae, 16/1 Oh Crick, 20/1 Havingotascoobydo
25/1 Consigliere.

* This is a 0-145 Handicap Chase over 2 Miles
* The majority of winners were aged 6-7-8-9
* Only 1 of the past winners of this race was a 5yo
* None were seasonal debutants
* ELENIKA – You don’t want a 5yo with an absence
* Horses aged 10 have won this just once
* That horse had a good recent run
* I would avoid horses aged 10 with long breaks
* HAVE YOU SEEN ME fails this and looks unsafe
* All his wins are in lower grades than this
* Look at the horses that raced this season
* There were 8 of these winners in this race
* They almost all ran close last time out or fell
* Those that were beaten 5 + lengths last time struggled
* They had a 1-39 record that winner running 2m 3f last time
* If you have run this season you want a good last run
* CONSIGLIERE didn’t do enough last time
* He’s never won off this mark and this field isn’t right
* In fields of 11 or more he has a 0-21 record
* OH CRICK didn’t do enough for me last time
* It’s too early for him to be winning
* SHADOWS LENGTHEN – His last run wasn’t enough
* RENARD was beaten further than ideal last time
* He has only even won in small fields in lower grade
* HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO didn’t do enough last time
* THEATRICAL STAR didn’t do well enough last time
* You’d think he wants further than 2m anyway
* GUS MACRAE – I wanted a better last run
* I have my doubts about this track as well
* BALLYADAM BROOK doesn’t look good enough
* He hasn’t looked the same horse since an injury
* PARSNIP PETE has just won a Novice Hurdle
* His Chasing form doesn’t convince me
* Not sure the track will suit or the big field
* DE FAOITHESDREAM has a recent run
* None did that from a Novice Handicap Chase
* I don’t think you want a horse doing that
* Certainly not one that was beaten last time
* SEW ON TARGET ran over 2m 4f recently
* Two winners did that both were younger
* Both had fewer chase starts
* My biggest worry is the class at 2m
* His previous wins are in lower grade
* They are over further or on softer ground
* He could get caught out in this class on this ground
* TINDARO – Wouldnt rule him out on the ground
* He is a much more complicated horse that ideal
* Not sure he has the guts for this course
* I’d have been much happier in a smaller field

* EASTLAKE is a smart horse and won last time
* This is a Career high mark though
* I don’t like the mix of a high weight and no Graded form
* The winners of this with high weights all had more
* I don’t like that he has no Cheltenham form
* The ground may not be ideal for him either
* Entitled to serious respect but there are doubts

Shortlist

* BALLYGARVEY is a seasonal debutant
* He comes from a Novice Handicap Chase
* 4 horses did that in this race
* They finished 3rd 4th WON 11th
* The 2010 winner did the same
* He was a 7yo with 4 Chase starts
* BALLYGARVEY is 7 with 6 Chase starts
* That gets him shortlisted
* He may just want it softer though

* ANAY TURGE  has 18 Chase runs
* Little bit more than ideal but other positives
* He has more recent runs than these
* He is fitter than most horses in this race
* Last years winner was also 8 and did the same
* He simply has far fewer flaws than most
* He has won at the track before
* Any number could beat him on the day
* It’s asking a lot for 3 horses to do that though
* If 16 horses run you have 4 places as well
* This seems the least riSky option

Selection

ANAY TURGE 8/1

Each Way

C h e l t e n h a m  2.05

4/7 Oscar WhiSky, 9/4 Taquin Du Seuil
10/1 The Romford Pele, 20/1 The Cockney Mackem.

* This is a Novice Chase over an extended 2m 4f
* OSCAR WHISky has his Chasing debut
* He comes from a Grade 1 Hurdle last year
* So did the last 3 winners and others as well
* I looked at horses in this race like him
* Horses from Grade 1 Hurdles last season
* Several won but most were younger than him
* Horses aged 6 were best like the last 3 winners
* However Tarxien won this race in 2002
* He was an 8yo with 18 Hurdle starts
* OSCAR WHISky has a similar profile
* Therefore no statistical objection
* I don’t like his price much though
* Especially when there is a better profile
 
* TAQUIN DU SEUIL shouldn’t be underestimated
* Horses aged 6
* Horses winning a recent Novice Chase 
* Having 5-6-7-8 National Hunt starts
* Horses with this profile are W W W 2 in this race
* The 2006 2007 2008 winners of this had that profile
* The 2012 runner up had this profile as well
* The 1997 winner was also very similar
* He was 6 and won a recent Novice Chase
* He had 13 National Hunt runs just a few more
* The 2001 winner was 7 but had that profile
* Recent Novice Chase winners aged 6 are strong
* TAQUIN DU SEUIL is an inferior horse on Hurdle form
* This is Chasing and he has been out an won
* He has a safer profile and is like many winners

* THE ROMFORD PELE cant be ruled out either
* If he had won last time he’d have a similar profile
* I’m happy to forgive his 2nd last time
* Especially as that was a New Course record
* That run knocked over 3 seconds off the record
* I don’t think you can rule this horse out
* Just a shame there are only 4 runners

Selection

With TAQUIN DU SEUIL and THE ROMFORD PELE
offering serious opposition I can’t bet the favourite
much as he’s the class horse and could easily win.
 
THE ROMFORD PELE 7/1  Win Bet

TAQUIN DU SEUIL 5/2  Saver Bet

C h e l t e n h a m  2.40

4/1 Top Gamble, 6/1 Upswing, 8/1 Whisper
9/1 Atlantic Roller, 10/1 God4s Own, 12/1 Handazan
12/1 Kaylif Aramis, 12/1 Killala Quay, 12/1 Warden Hill
14/1 Thomas Crapper, One Conemara, 16/1 Uncle Jimmy
20/1 Free To Dream, 20/1 Hold Court, 20/1 Scarlet Fire
25/1 Angles Hill, 25/1 Milborough, 33/1 Decimus
33/1 Watered Silk, 40/1 Kellys Brow.

* This is a 2m 5f Handicap Hurdle for 0-137 rated horses.
* TOP GAMBLE has 1 previous hurdle race
* That worries me
* There were 7 winners from novice hurdles last year
* The best record comes from 6 year olds
* There were 2 winners aged 5 doing it like him
* Grand Crus had 3 hurdle runs and 2 bumpers
* Punchestowns had 3 hurdle runs and 4 bumpers
* TOP GAMBLE has just 1 hurdle run and 2 bumpers
* He also comes from a 2m race
* Grand Crus and Punchestowns didn’t do that
* Neither did they win last time like TOP GAMBLE
* TOP GAMBLE looks too short with 1 hurdle run
* There was a winner with 1 hurdle start winning (2004)
* That horse was a 6 year old though
* ATLANTIC ROLLER is 6 from a Novice Hurdle
* He has just 1 hurdle start like the 2004 winner
* ATLANTIC ROLLER has more weight though
* He has much longer off the track as well
* I’m not looking for a once raced horse
* His trainer says he wants 3m over hurdles anyway
* ONE CONEMARA – is 5 first time out from Novice Hurdles
* Not for me going back in trip and likely chasing soon
* HANDAZAN is a 4 year old
* I looked at 4 year olds in this race since 1993
* There was a 0-54 record which says it all
* HANDAZAN has to be opposed
* Look at horses that ran in Novice Hurdles
* We know many did that as seasonal debutants
* I looked at those that did it with recent runs
* I found a 0-20 record with these types
* That tells me recent Novice Hurdlers are unsafe
* KILLALA QUAY fails this and is rejected
* WARDEN HILL also fails this and is out
* ANGLES HILL also fails this and is out
* Past winners had the following hurdle starts
* 9 3 3 5 3 5 5 8 1 10 6 5 10 5 5
* I wouldn’t want a horse with more than 10 runs
* FREE TO DREAM has 14 runs and looks badly treated
* HOLD COURT – I wanted a better last run

* GOD4S OWN is 5 and ran this season
* Horses aged 5 doing this were 3-48
* These 3 winners were all beaten last time out
* Look at 5 year olds that won recent races
* All 16 of these lost
* GOD4S OWN may not be up to winning again

* UPSWING has the same problem
* He’s 5 and won recently and all 16 doing that lost
* It would be no surprise if he went and won
* I just can’t match him to a winner

* KAYLIF ARAMIS is 6
* He comes from a recent handicap hurdle
* 2 winners did that but with much less weight
* I looked at horses that ran recently
* Those that came from Handicap Hurdles were 3-96
* Thats not a great record
* Those with 10st 13lbs or more doing this were 0-43
* KAYLIF ARAMIS fails this and isn’t quite right
* THOMAS CRAPPER fails the same statistic
* UNCLE JIMMY fails the same statistic
* He isn’t the right profile and has no track form

Selection

* WHISPER is 5 and comes from a Novice Hurdle
* We know both Grand Crus and Punchestowns did that
* Punchestown won with 11st 12lbs as he did
* WHISPER can’t be a negative because of that
* If you follow the above angles to the letter
* Then he is just about the only horse without a fault

WHISPER  7/1

Each Way

L i n g f i e l d   3.05

11/8 Leonard Thomas, 9/2 The Great Gabrial
7/1 Piceno, 9/1 Chiswick Bey, 9/1 Rugosa
12/1 Kakapuka, 14/1 Club House, 14/1 Ewell Place
20/1 Striking Echo, 20/1 Timothy T.

* This is a Mile Handicap for 0-74 rated horses
* LEONARD THOMAS has 1 previous race
* Thats very inexperienced for a handicap
* There are 250 similar races at this time of year
* None of them went to a once raced horse
* Not that many tried but none of them did it
* I would rather look for something each way
* LEONARD THOMAS didn’t beat much last time
* His Dam has produced 4 horses
* None were rated any better than this sort of grade
* I think we should try and take him on

I don’t like RUGOSA so lightly raced this season and
a horse that’s clearly had a problem. Neither of the
3 year olds STRIKING ECHO or CLUB HOUSE appeal
with poor last runs and absences. TIMOTHY T does
not look fit. KAKAPUKA is out from a 6f race and an
absence. A big problem here is understanding why
some of these were well beaten recently and trying
to decide if there were excuses or whether they are
simply out of form. EWELL PLACE looks in the wrong
place at the moment and is struggling. PICENO must
be consider but his last run was poor and his profile
suffers because of it. CHISWICK BEY is another with
a poor recent history. It may look obvious but surely
the right bet here is THE GREAT GABRIAL each way.
He hasn’t done badly winning 4 of 18 starts and his
numbers are generally progressive and the best of
them have been on the All Weather. Having looked
at some of these its easier to understand why there
is confidence in LEONARD THOMAS after just 1 run.
This comes down to a choice of taking a short price
about him or betting THE GREAT GABRIAL and  I’d
much rather do that.

Selection

THE GREAT GABRIAL

C h e l t e n h a m  3.15

2/1 Balthazar King, 5/1 Chicago Grey, 6/1 Uncle Junior
8/1 Diamond Harry, 10/1 Quiscover Fontaine
10/1 Sire Collonges, 10/1 Zest For Life
16/1 Gullible Gordon, 16/1 Viking Blond
20/1 Theroadtocroker, 25/1 Any Currency.

* This is a Cross Country Chase
* There are 14 past renewals of this race
* Horses aged under 9 have a 1-77 record
* None of the past winners were 7 year olds
* SIRE COLLONGES has to go aged 7
* VIKING BLOND has to aged 8
* ANY CURRENCY didn’t do enough last time
* THEROADTOCROKER is rated far too low
* GULLIBLE GORDON – I don’t like his absence
* His profile has flaws and he may not get home
* DIAMOND HARRY may not get home
* His sire is 0-32 with runners over 3m 4f
* Appreciate its not a standard race
* Sire stats shouldn’t really apply here
* DIAMOND HARRY is hardly the safest to rely on
* He may not want the ground as it is
* UNCLE JUNIOR won this in 2012 and 2011
* He had several recent races before winning then
* This year he is a 12yo debutant
* No statistical problem with 12yo debutants in this race
* Interesting though his wins came after these absences
* 34 44 33 26 36 38 14 13 27 35 days
* UNCLE JUNIOR has never won after an absence
* Thats excluding his Bumper win back in 2007
* That puts me off his chance of a hat trick in the race
* QUISCOVER FONTAINE – Hard to read
* With 3 Falls in his last 7 Chase runs he isn’t for me

Shortlist

* CHICAGO GREY is a 10yo seasonal debutant
* This is his first Cross Country race
* His trainer hints he will come on for the run
* Thats two problems which are hard to forgive

* ZEST FOR LIFE – Hard to read. Don’t know enough
* He has no Cheltenham form not an advantage

* BALTHAZAR KING comes from a handicap chase
* Winners did that much as none won last time like him
* He has the ground in his favour though
* He was 2nd in this race as an 8 year old
* Wrong age last year he is a more suitable 9yo now

Selection

BALTHAZAR KING 7/4

Win Bet

C h e l t e n h a m  3.50

3/1 Quick Jack, 6/1 Edmaaj, 8/1 Rosie Probert
9/1 Vibrato Valtat, 10/1 Three Kingdoms, 12/1 Maxi Chop
12/1 Roberto Pegasus, 14/1 Little Pop, Noche De Reyes
16/1 Dresden, 16/1 Just When, 20/1 Deep Trouble
20/1 Falcarragh, 20/1 Lone Ranger, 20/1 Quite By Chance
25/1 Daliance, 33/1 Expanding Universe
33/1 Mister Bricolage, 40/1 To The Sky, 40/1 Vedani.

* This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m
* Big field. Untested horses. Wont be easy
* There are a couple of statistical pointers here

* Cheltenham have 110 handicap Hurdles
* Thats 110 handicaps in November and December
* Thats any distance and any kind of handicap
* Look at horses from Maiden Hurdles
* They have a 4-60 record in these races
* None of these were 4 year olds
* VIBRATO VALTAT has this against him
* Horses from Maiden Hurdles with 2 + hurdle runs
* They had a disappointing 1-50 record
* That winner was a 6 year old
* EDMAAJ comes from a Maiden Hurdle
* Its obviously difficult to win a handicap here doing it

* There are 16 renewals of this race
* I looked at horses from Maiden Hurdles
* There was a 0-34 record in this race
* EDMAAJ therefore doesn’t offer me enough
* VIBRATO VALTAT is also opposed
* ROSIE PROBERT is a 4yo filly from a handicap
* Horses aged 4 from handicap hurdles are 0-24
* There were 5 winners aged 4 in the past renewals
* None of these were fillies like ROSIE PROBERT
* With Topweight she has a bit to prove
* NOCHE DE REYES  doesn’t come out well enough
* ROBERTO PEGASUS – I don’t want a 7yo debutant

Possibles

* THREE KINGDOMS – Plenty to prove but no negative
* LITTLE POP – Shortlisted and entitled to go well
* MAXI CHOP – 0 from 6 so far but wouldn’t rule him out
* Tough ask with topweight but will like the ground

* QUICK JACK is clearly a big runner
* Improved on the flat he looks very well treated
* Rated 86 on the flat his 113 hurdle rating is generous
* One of the fittest horses in the race
* I think he will win this

Selection

QUICK JACK 9/4

Win Bet

Best Wishes
Guy Ward   

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

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Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on November 15, 2013