L i n g f i e l d  4.00

9/4 Kingscroft, 11/4 George Guru, 6/1 Axiom
7/1 Dubai Dynamo, 10/1 Hung Parliament,Titan Triumph
14/1 Reve De Nuit, 16/1 Final Drive.

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over a mile
* Not many similar races so hard to match horses
* HUNG PARLIAMENT – 4yo seasonal debutants struggle
* None had under 13 career starts as he does
* AXIOM – No seasonal debutants won aged 7 or older
* TITAN TRIUMPH won a 7f handicap last time
* No horse as old as him won again at a mile
* Coming up in class he has a lot to prove
* DUBAI DYNAMO doesnt appeal from a 6f race
* Not as a 7yo with just 1 run since last October
* REVE DE NUIT – Just falls short and looks badly handicapped
* FINAL DRIVE -Doesnt look well treated at the moment
* I think he may need another run this year
* KINGSCROFT is an exposed 4 year old
* Similar types from 8f handicaps were 0-4
* Career high mark and unsafe profile but respected
* GEORGE GURU – Unorthodox as lightly raced 5yo
* Acceptable profile and well raced this season
* He should have a fitness edge over most of these

Selection – GEORGE GURU

Prices are coming in a  touch since this was advised to full members earlier

13/8  available at PaddyPower-  BoyleSports – s james – VC

Posted under horse racing tips

No free tip message today. I only put a
few hours in to the Saturday meeting after Cheltenham
as the festival work is so demanding and I find it impossible
to raise my game today.
We made some serious profit at Cheltenham.
That’s over now and we have targets ahead.

The Year takes a very
sharp turn now Cheltenham has gone. We are heading
towards the flat season and finally some serious racing
with one eye on the Grand National meeting. This year
I will provide extensive statistics in all races at Aintree.
I have never done that before as I haven’t had the time
in the past because the start of the flat took over.
I’m going to put enough time aside this year and sort it out.
At some stage I have to move house as well.
It’ll have to be a very well planned next few weeks.
The carnival is over and we an regroup on Monday or
Tuesday and getback to some normality as the flat racing is coming.

A very nice end to the festival with the only bet on the
day SYNCHRONISED winning the Gold Cup at a decent
price. He turned the festival from a reasonable one to a
very good one. I was right to keep the bets down with a
lot of unsortable races yesterday. In the extra analysis section
Salsify won for us and we had a good 16/1 each way place in the
Grand Annual so the bottom of the message more than paid it’s way but it was really about SYNCHRONISED available at 9/1 and 10/1 and a
truly brilliant ride from Tony McCoy. There are plenty
of ups and downs in this game but betting a winners of a
top class race at good odds is as good as it gets and that
put the seal on a really good Cheltenham Festival for us

Feedback from new members over Cheltenham has been very positive.

Not surprising as they made some significant profit.
My quick back of envelope calc is that we had firm bets in 12 Cheltenham races.
£50 total staked per race would have made a net profit in the region of £650 to £700

The deal page we will leave up till Monday morning.
It’s a a very good offer adn a great opportunity for anyone interested to test the
beauty of the full service proper with their own eyes.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

Back next week however fingers crossed with the usual Saturday Free Blog Tip.

Posted under horse racing tips

Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

These are based on the past thirteen years of Cheltenham Gold Cup runnings.

We go to this level for almost all races we anlaysis whether its a major festival such as Cheltenham or a minor meeting in January. Working harder than others produces an edge.

Cheltenham Friday 3.20

betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase 3m 2 1/2f

* The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y
* 15 of the last 16 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts
* The exception was Kauto Star with 20 Chases in 2009
* The last 16 winners ran in the following number of chases
* 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled
* Ignoring French runs they had a 0-85 record
* You are best with an improving lightly raced horse
* Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record.
* They’ve won 16 of the last 18 Cheltenham Gold Cups.
* Horses aged 10 do not have a great record
* Horses aged 10 have a 1-90 record since 1992
* Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969
* All 36 that ran in the last 18 years lost.
* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.
* I wouldnt want a horse with fewer runs that season
* Horses absent more than 10 weeks are fine
* Previous track form is a serious advantage in this race.
* This advantage is increased if horse had Festival form.
* 12 of the last 14 winners placed at a previous Festival.
* Almost all past winners placed or fell last time out
* The only exception was last years winner 5th in a Grade 1
* Every winner had won in one of their last 6 races.
* A rating of around 166 is needed to win this race
* Horses from a Grade 1 – Grade 2 chase last time are best
* Horses that placed or won a Grade 1/Grade 2 were best
* Every winner since 1992 had managed that
* A Novice hasnt won the Gold Cup since 1974
* Two recent winners came from Handicaps
* Both those winners had Grade 1 Form before
* No winners since 1979 had ran on the Flat

S t r o n g e s t A n g l e s

* 15 of the last 16 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled
* Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record
* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season
* Almost all past winners placed or fell last time out

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Posted under horse racing tips

N e w b u r y   2.05

This 3m Handicap Hurdle looks too competetive when there
are no past renewals of this race. Just wanted to make one or two
quick points having looked at all similar races.

TARVINI came out  badly as very few exposed horses win these races
if having an absence  of more than 7 weeks. You want backclass in
Graded form with this  profile and he lacks that and I didn’t see him as safe enough.

ALWAYS WAINING looks wrong as an exposed 11 year old with an absence.

LOVE OF TARA is the wrong type as a mare from a Graded hurdle.

I’d be against PAVILLON BLEU and SOUTH O4THE BORDER.

Not keen on THEATRICAL STAR hammered in a Novice Hurdle over 2m 4f last time.

SUPER VILLAN is wrong with just 2 runs so far this year from a Novice Handicap.

BUCK MAGIC is hard to read. I am going to oppose him but I could be wrong and it was close.
I looked at 6 year olds from handicaps with just 1 run this season. Those that had 4-5-6 runs
were excellent so he is not far away with 3 runs. If you take those with between 3 and 4 runs
the only winner had 12lbs less weight and 1 more run as well. I just think BUCK MAGIC falls short.

BENBENS has a testing absence and all similar 7 year old winners with a
break like that had Grade 1 form and he doesnt.

S h o r t l i s t

BLAZING BUCK – GODSMEJUDGE -IMPERIAL CIRCUS
CINDERELLA ROSE – LAMBORO LAD

* LAMBORO LAD is 7 years old with 9-20 runs
* He comes from a 3m Handicap Hurdle
* He has Class 2 form and no higher
* He runs within 2 weeks
* He has 11st or less
* He was beaten last time but ran within 12 lengths
* He has 4 + runs that season
* Only two horses had that profile in similar races
* Both horses won.
* LAMBORO LAD has the best profile of the 5
* Not convinced he has the class to win off bottomweight
* He does have the best profile though and is a fair price

Selection – LAMBORO LAD 10/1 + Each Way

Blog Comment: 10/1 now gone but 9/1 available at Ladbrokes & bet365

Posted under horse racing tips

K e m p t o n   4.45

4/1 Ashbrittle, 5/1 Semi Colon, 6/1 The Reformer
13/2 Oscar Prairie, 8/1 Like A Hurricane, 8/1 So Fine
12/1 Woolfall Treasure, 14/1 Busker Royal, 16/1 Balzaccio
16/1 Glenstal Abbey, 16/1 Pause And Clause, 16/1 Ultravox
20/1 Dantari, 25/1 Tasheba, 33/1 Mister Snowball.

* This is a 2m 5f Handicap Hurdle
* There has been 18 renewals of this race
* The long history suggests two things
* We dont want exposed and experienced types
* Equally we dont want very inexperienced types
* We want to fall between the two extremes
* Past winners had the following National Hunt Runs
* 12 8 12 10 7 9 9 7 17 6 9 5 9 10 9 6
* Past winners had the following Hurdle Starts
* 12 8 9 6 7 9 8 7 16 6

I’d be looking for a horse thats unexposed. I would want
Under 17 National Hunt runs and ideally Under 13 runs.
I would be more interested of they had 6-12 Hurdle runs.

* ASHBRITTLE the favourite has just 3 career starts
* The above stats show all past winners had at least 5
* ASHBRITTLE shouldnt be seen as a negative though
* He is just not like any past winners of this race
* ASHBRITTLE – I dont see enough I like here
* SO FINE has only had 3 Hurdle runs
* Recent past winners had 12 8 9 6 7 9 8 7 16 6
* SO FINE doesnt interest me with just three
* The following horses look outclassed
* MISTER SNOWBALL – GLENSTAL ABBEY
* TASHEBA – I feel he is too exposed
* Horses aged 9 or more are 0-42 in this race
* LIKE A HURRICANE fails that and comes from a chase
* Just two runs this year I am not convinced
* No past dropped from 3m like him
* BALZACCIO has the same stable and same problem
* He comes from 3m chases and looks wrong
* BUSKER ROYAL – Wrong aged (9) and too exposed
* PAUSE AND CLAUSE is too exposed
* DANTARI is too exposed
* WOOLFALL TREASURE – Has a reasonable exposure
* Not convinced he is in food enough form though

S h o r t l i s t

* OSCAR PRAIRIE is fine 12 runs and 7 hurdle starts
* Not sure his  preparation is safe
* He had been Chasing before a run in a Jumpers Bumper
* Much depens how he takes to hurdling and to 2m 5f
* ULTRAVOX – A  bit too exposed but only just
* Positives elsewhere in his profile
* His stable are also in flying  form and money has come
* ULTRAVOX could be a sensible saver
* SEMI COLON – There are some big doubts about her profile
* No mares came from a Chase in any similar races
* I am shortlisting him for 3 reasons
* His number of runs and exposure is a big positive
* His trainer is outstanding
* Not enough similar types have tried to win with his profile
* That stops me makig him a negative
* SEMI COLON is not like any winners though
* THE REFORMER looks interesting
* He is a lightly raced 7 year old from a handicap
* I like his profile and one past winner was similar
* 1995 winner Fired Earth was uncannily similar
* Like him he dissapointed when last seen
* That was a better class race than this
* THE REFORMER started favourite that day and came 3rd
* Dropped in the weights he could bounce back in this

Selection
Split stake on
THE REFORMER 7/1 Win Bet
ULTRAVOX 16/1 Saver Bet

Nb blog comment: Ultravox has steamed in a fair bit since Full members got this earlier today. 10/1 Coral available but looks like it will go soon.

See live market odds at

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-02-25/kempton-park/16-45/betting/

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Posted under horse racing tips