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Saturday Febuary 28th

No Account Bet

One Selection

Kempton 5.05

THE BISHOP’S BABY

Win Bet around 7/2- 4/1- 9/2

Currently 4/1 at William Hill , Ladbrokes , CentreBet , BlueSq

I have spent a lot of time on Bumper at
Kempton where THE BISHOP’S BABY has a massive
chance and I think she may win this. If she had been
trained by a bigger yard and also had a professioanal
on board I would have made her a full account bet as
an each way bet or with a saver in the race. I think
she will either bolt up or run into something above
average which is unlikely. The other problem is with
these races we have no control over prices so I will
make her a selection only. If she wins around 4/1 I
will have done my job well for a Saturday.

Have to go where the statistics take
me and THE BISHOP’S BABY is favoured as a bigger
price than most of these handicap options yet faces
nothing like as much opposition. Just the One bet on
Saturday but much to pick over elsewhere.

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T O D A Y  ‘ S     R  A  C  I  N  G

I was hindered yesterday for the full member message
and lost a lot of time with some
connection problems and I didnt have a bet because of it.
If I had just gone with one it probably would have won as
I count 10 selections in yesterdays message and these 10
produced a W W W W W 3rd W W 2nd W record which was
pretty spectacular. Not going to let it get to me and will
carry on as planned. Shorter Messages. Finding some bets
that are stronger than we have had recently and get some
profit racked up as quickly as we can

KEMPTON 5.05

betfred BINGO MAIDEN OPEN
NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE (CLASS 4) (4-6yo) 2m

4/1 Aconitum, 5/1 Artist’s Moon, 5/1 The Bishops Baby,
11/2 Time To Think, 7/1 Divine Intavention, 7/1 Loana
Shell, 8/1 Mintiverdi, 12/1 Robo, 14/1 Genies Lamp, 33/1
Rapid Connection, 100/1 Patrick Dee.

* This is a Maiden Bumper over 2 miles
* Febuary and March have seen 48 of these races
* Rapid Connection- Patrick Dee look outclassed
* Fillies and Mares have a poor 5-172 record
* With 1 career run they are 0-73
* LOANA SHALL fails that
* No mare was absent as long as GENIIES LAMP
* Febuary and March have seen 490 Bumpers
* These are all maiden and non maiden races
* Unraced females are 13-702 a 1.85% strike rate
* Thye score badly but cant be entirely ruled out
* However I would want to oppose these runners
* MINTIVERDI - TIME TO THINK are opposed
* Both are unraced females and I dislike that
* ROBO is unraced at 16/1 and not for me
* I looked at 4 year olds with 1 run in 490 similar races
* Those absent 7 weeks or more were 1-107
* ACONITUM fails that and also comes from a 3yo race
* Horses that did that were 1-33
* ARTIST´S MOON has to be respected from Hendersons
* However he is a once raced 4yo losing by 59 lengths last time
* 4 year olds with 1 run losing by 25 + lengths were 4-276
* Since 1997 that record was just 1-172
* Those that didnt run in 2 weeks were 1-215
* I dont see where the improvement comes from

SHORTLIST

DIVINE INTAVENTION - THE BISHOPS BABY

DIVINE INTAVENTION ran a strong 5th on his debut
and is statistically strong and I like his chance in this. THE BISHOPS BABY is also highly interesting as the only horse with 2 runs something that last years winner had. I think this pair have the strongest chance by far in this race. Video analysis leads me to the following. THE BISHOPS BABY has already clocked a higher  RPR than the average winners of these races.

SELECTION

SELECTION - THE BISHOPS BABY E/W

SAVER - DIVINE INTAVENTION

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To Visit My main Site    click Here UK Horse Racing Tips

Best Wishes

Guy

Mathematician-Betting

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KEMPTON 12.30

TAKE A BREAK/EUROPEAN BREEDERS’ FUND
“NATIONAL HUNT” NOVICES’ HURDLE (QUALIFIER)
(CLASS 4) (4-6yo) 2m

4/1 Lord Ragnar, 9/2 Somersby, 13/2 Gershwin, 7/1 In Vino,
8/1 Seefin Mountain, 12/1 Clova Island, Firedog, 14/1 Master Charm, 16/1 Ruby Isabel, 20/1 High Carol, Rapid Return, 25/1 Mr Presley, 33/1 Rothres, Smart N Sharp, Ushiro Emery, 50/1 Junior Jimble, 100/1 Cool Contender.

SELECTION - SOMERSBY 3/1

* This is a 2m Novice Hurdle for horses aged 4-5-6
* There has been 112 of these races run in November-December
* There has been 497 similar races for all aged horses
* I want to oppose LORD RAGMAR and FIREDOG in this race
* Both come from a Bumper - and it was this season
* 13 of the 497 winners came from a recent bumper
* However LORD RAGMAR was beaten 20 lengths in that bumper
* FIREDOG was beaten 40 lengths in that bumper
* I looked at horses that had ran recently in bumpers
* Horses that did it beaten 8 lengths or more were 0-220
* Those that were not 1-2-3-4-5 last time out were 0-170
* Horses well beaten in bumpers are awful if having run recently
* FIREDOG-LORD RAGMAR fails the same statistic
* They both look very opposable
* IN VINO was entitled to hate his seasonal debut
* That was on heavy ground and he had no hurdling form
* The issue with him is did he run well enough last time to consider
* He had excuses - but was still beaten 27 lengths
* Not many of the 497 winners had similar profiles
* In 497 races I looked at 4 year olds that had 1 run that year
* Looked at those beaten 16 + lengths in these races as IN VINO was
* The record was 10-531 a very poor 1.88% strike rate
* When these 4 year olds had more than 1 run it became 2-184
* Those like IN VINO with 2-3 career starts were 0-121
* That suggests to me IN VINO has too much to do
* MASTER CHARM fails the same angles and is also opposed
* I dont think GERSHWIN did enough last time out
* I would shortlist SEEFIN MOUNTAIN
* He comes from a Graded Bumper after 2 runs
* There were 4 horses with his profile and they were W 4th 4th Lost
* It has been done and Graded Bumper form is respected
* I would have to strongly prefer SOMERSBY

SELECTION - SOMERSBY 3/1

* SOMERSBY comes from a maiden hurdle this year
* Several 4 year olds did that in similar races
* Those like SOMERSBY that were 1-2-3-4 last time out were strong
* His run this year must give him a very strong chance
* He is reported as one of Henrietta Knights best prospects
* When he ran the stable were out of form and struggling
* They have now had their 1st winner this year
* He was bound to have badly needed that opening run 3 weeks ago

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Three Account Bets so far this season.

WON 3-1

SECOND 6-1

WON 2-1

The latest Account Bet winning Saturday very easily.
LINGFIELD 12.00

11/4 River Thames, 9/2 Muktasb, 7/1 Afton View, Welcome Approach, 10/1 Our Fugitive, Rightcar Lewis, 12/1 Shot To Fame, 14/1 Bronte´s Hope, Now You See Me, 20/1 Gambling Jack, Loyal Royal, 25/1 Blue Zenith.

SELECTION - RIVER THAMES

In this 6f handicap I dont see RIVER THAMES being beaten. I think he has worked himself into a race where he is simply much better class than the horses that occupy this sort of race. I would have to rule out several. RIGHTCARD LEWIS is out as a filly from 5f. BLUE ZENITH is out from a seller. Several had questionable fitness like NOW YOU SEE ME, GAMBLING JACK and LOYAL ROYAL. I want to oppose the Marcus Tregonnning horse BRONTE’S HOPE an inexperienced filly down in trip. I dont think SHOT TO FAME will show his best form here over 6f and feel he will be caught out. WELCOME APROACH isnt a horse that likes the hustle and bustle and here drawn in the middle I dont see him running his best over this diatance. If I had done a shortlist it may have read like Muktasb - River Thames -Afton View. However I cant do one as I think it should have just 1 horse on it. RIVER THAMES looks a really good bet to me. Hurt badly by the draw at Doncaster last time over 7f he ran far better than it looks. He has back class that most of these would die for. He only has to give MUKTASB a pound in weight yet RIVER THAMES comes from two 0-84 class races and MUKTASB comes here beaten in 0-58 races. MUKTASB has no back class at all. The only time he has ran in class 4 handicaps before he was an outsider and well beaten. By contrast RIVER THAMES has won two and ran in far better grade. In his 34 race career RIVER THAMES has never been in class 6 before. Yes he is quirky but he is dropping into a 0-60 race and he has to be better class than that.

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We are entering the last month of the Flat season.  There is still plenty of racing left but we’ve broken the back of the year. In terms of the results I have updated them on the website for the season with every account bet and every selection there as well.

Account Bets

28 Bets - 10 Won - 3 Placed - 15 Lost - PROFIT  + 1854.25

Daily Selections

183 Bets -44 Won -12 Placed -127 Lost PROFIT +427.70

Think the account bets have done very well. Ignore the 3 that were placed with money back then 40% of account bets win and at big prices as well. That £1854 profit is very decent in 28 bets and the profit on turnover is excellent. In terms of the selections the £427 profit is based on £20 win or £10 each way so its bound to be less. Overall though they have not been too bad. There is Plenty of profit there in the 183 bets and it keeps things ticking over during the quiet spells. I would like to maybe get the account to the + £2500 point in the next month and also hit the £500 profit mark for the selections. Its been a good solid year with a Month to go and without any major problems along the way.

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