Wimbledon Ante Post Tennis Bet

As promised on our free newsletter earlier today
below is a copy of Guy’s “Bet of The Year”

Such a  title is perhaps best attached after
a bet has won however. Along those lines
I’d say Rule The World at 50/1 for the
2016 Grand National still holds the
crown for Bet of The Year.

Very unusually this is a sports bet and not a horse.

The below was sent out to full member
clients here earlier this morning.

Unfortunately I do see the Wimbledon markets odds
on our man have contracted a bit since then.
Typically 16/1 now.

If our man wins tonight they may contract further.
If he loses then a bit of outward drift over time
may be no surprise.

Anyhow below is what Guy said earlier today.

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Friday March 31st – 9.27 AM

Today’s bet could be the Bet of the Year
Normally such Tipster spiel revolts me
But it does have huge potential to be that
In a few months time we may call it that

Today my bet is an Ante Post Sports Bet
Highly unusual for me to advise any sports bet

I am doing this partly on instinct
Partly on a phone call I have had
Partly because it looks a certain arb
And I would like it on the account early

But my main reason
Is something in my gut is telling me
That this could be the bet of the year

********************************************
TODAY’S STAKED BET

Ante Post

Sports Bet

Wimbledon Tennis Championships

NICK KYRGIOS 20/1

Each Way

Half the Odds 1,2

22/1 bet365 Betfair Betbright Independents
20/1 Ladbrokes Hills Sky betfred VC Paddy Power
20/1 Stan J Boyles Independents

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TODAY’S MESSAGE

I’ve discussed the Tennis Bet elsewhere
There is never a good time to tip these bets
But I don’t think we will regret this one
We are getting 10/1 to reach the final
The draw is not as important as people think
And if we wait for that he will be 10/1 outright

One idea may be splitting stakes

£3 Each Way Kyrgios 20/1 at Wimbledon

£4 Win Bet at 6/4 to beat Federer tonight

If he wins tonight you have a great free bet
Winning or losing this evening
Would make no difference to the Wimbledon bet
I would have no more or less confidence
Regardless of how tonight’s match goes

TENNIS

My Tennis Man has rung me
Says at Midnight tonight in the Miami Open
Semi Final match
NICK KYRGIOS plays Roger Federer

Nick Kyrgios is 6/4 to win
Some of you will know his reputation
One of a young and talented brat
His recent form has apparently been superb
Said to be the next new big thing in the game
I notice he is now only 16/1 for Wimbledon
Anyway he tells me he can beat Federer tonight
Tells me to expect something special from this kid
Says he has not dropped his serve all year
Got his temperament under control
I don’t know much about it
I know Kyrgios won their only previous match
But he tells me I must watch this match
And is pushing me toward betting Kyrgios at 6/4

The conversation then progressed a bit
I said wasn’t 9/2 to win the Tournament a bet ?
He said if he beats Federer
He probably would be favourite to beat Nadal
Then we went on to talk about WIMBLEDON

Bet of the Year ?

Wimbledon

Nick Kyrigios 20/1-22/1 ?

Possibly ?

This kid is on a huge upward curve
It is Half the odds 2 places
My Tennis man says 20/1 is massive
He says it is a certain arb before Wimbledon
Djokovic has lost the plot with his liquid Diet
Federer is just getting older and older
The same applies to Rafa Nadal
He says Kyrgios is a better player than Raonic.
Murray of course will be a serious threat
But this year is ripe for a big new talent
And that 20/1 is starting to look very big

 

 

 

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This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 31, 2017

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Kempton Horse Racing Tip

Saturday Febuary 28th

No Account Bet

One Selection

Kempton 5.05

THE BISHOP’S BABY

Win Bet around 7/2- 4/1- 9/2

Currently 4/1 at William Hill , Ladbrokes , Centrebet , BlueSq

I have spent a lot of time on Bumper at
Kempton where THE BISHOP’S BABY has a massive
chance and I think she may win this. If she had been
trained by a bigger yard and also had a professioanal
on board I would have made her a full account bet as
an each way bet or with a saver in the race. I think
she will either bolt up or run into something above
average which is unlikely. The other problem is with
these races we have no control over prices so I will
make her a selection only. If she wins around 4/1 I
will have done my job well for a Saturday.

Have to go where the statistics take
me and THE BISHOP’S BABY is favoured as a bigger
price than most of these handicap options yet faces
nothing like as much opposition. Just the One bet on
Saturday but much to pick over elsewhere.

**********************************************
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T O D A Y  ‘ S     R  A  C  I  N  G

I was hindered yesterday for the full member message
and lost a lot of time with some
connection problems and I didnt have a bet because of it.
If I had just gone with one it probably would have won as
I count 10 selections in yesterdays message and these 10
produced a W W W W W 3rd W W 2nd W record which was
pretty spectacular. Not going to let it get to me and will
carry on as planned. Shorter Messages. Finding some bets
that are stronger than we have had recently and get some
profit racked up as quickly as we can

KEMPTON 5.05

betfred BINGO MAIDEN OPEN
NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE (CLASS 4) (4-6yo) 2m

4/1 Aconitum, 5/1 Artist’s Moon, 5/1 The Bishops Baby,
11/2 Time To Think, 7/1 Divine Intavention, 7/1 Loana
Shell, 8/1 Mintiverdi, 12/1 Robo, 14/1 Genies Lamp, 33/1
Rapid Connection, 100/1 Patrick Dee.

* This is a Maiden Bumper over 2 miles
* Febuary and March have seen 48 of these races
* Rapid Connection- Patrick Dee look outclassed
* Fillies and Mares have a poor 5-172 record
* With 1 career run they are 0-73
* LOANA SHALL fails that
* No mare was absent as long as GENIIES LAMP
* Febuary and March have seen 490 Bumpers
* These are all maiden and non maiden races
* Unraced females are 13-702 a 1.85% strike rate
* Thye score badly but cant be entirely ruled out
* However I would want to oppose these runners
* MINTIVERDI – TIME TO THINK are opposed
* Both are unraced females and I dislike that
* ROBO is unraced at 16/1 and not for me
* I looked at 4 year olds with 1 run in 490 similar races
* Those absent 7 weeks or more were 1-107
* ACONITUM fails that and also comes from a 3yo race
* Horses that did that were 1-33
* ARTIST´S MOON has to be respected from Hendersons
* However he is a once raced 4yo losing by 59 lengths last time
* 4 year olds with 1 run losing by 25 + lengths were 4-276
* Since 1997 that record was just 1-172
* Those that didnt run in 2 weeks were 1-215
* I dont see where the improvement comes from

SHORTLIST

DIVINE INTAVENTION – THE BISHOPS BABY

DIVINE INTAVENTION ran a strong 5th on his debut
and is statistically strong and I like his chance in this. THE BISHOPS BABY is also highly interesting as the only horse with 2 runs something that last years winner had. I think this pair have the strongest chance by far in this race. Video analysis leads me to the following. THE BISHOPS BABY has already clocked a higher  RPR than the average winners of these races.

SELECTION

SELECTION – THE BISHOPS BABY E/W

SAVER – DIVINE INTAVENTION

**********************************************
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To Visit My main Site    click Here UK Horse Racing Tips

Best Wishes

Guy

Mathematician-Betting

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Making Good Progress

KEMPTON 12.30

TAKE A BREAK/EUROPEAN BREEDERS’ FUND
“NATIONAL HUNT” NOVICES’ HURDLE (QUALIFIER)
(CLASS 4) (4-6yo) 2m

4/1 Lord Ragnar, 9/2 Somersby, 13/2 Gershwin, 7/1 In Vino,
8/1 Seefin Mountain, 12/1 Clova Island, Firedog, 14/1 Master Charm, 16/1 Ruby Isabel, 20/1 High Carol, Rapid Return, 25/1 Mr Presley, 33/1 Rothres, Smart N Sharp, Ushiro Emery, 50/1 Junior Jimble, 100/1 Cool Contender.

SELECTION – SOMERSBY 3/1

* This is a 2m Novice Hurdle for horses aged 4-5-6
* There has been 112 of these races run in November-December
* There has been 497 similar races for all aged horses
* I want to oppose LORD RAGMAR and FIREDOG in this race
* Both come from a Bumper – and it was this season
* 13 of the 497 winners came from a recent bumper
* However LORD RAGMAR was beaten 20 lengths in that bumper
* FIREDOG was beaten 40 lengths in that bumper
* I looked at horses that had ran recently in bumpers
* Horses that did it beaten 8 lengths or more were 0-220
* Those that were not 1-2-3-4-5 last time out were 0-170
* Horses well beaten in bumpers are awful if having run recently
* FIREDOG-LORD RAGMAR fails the same statistic
* They both look very opposable
* IN VINO was entitled to hate his seasonal debut
* That was on heavy ground and he had no hurdling form
* The issue with him is did he run well enough last time to consider
* He had excuses – but was still beaten 27 lengths
* Not many of the 497 winners had similar profiles
* In 497 races I looked at 4 year olds that had 1 run that year
* Looked at those beaten 16 + lengths in these races as IN VINO was
* The record was 10-531 a very poor 1.88% strike rate
* When these 4 year olds had more than 1 run it became 2-184
* Those like IN VINO with 2-3 career starts were 0-121
* That suggests to me IN VINO has too much to do
* MASTER CHARM fails the same angles and is also opposed
* I dont think GERSHWIN did enough last time out
* I would shortlist SEEFIN MOUNTAIN
* He comes from a Graded Bumper after 2 runs
* There were 4 horses with his profile and they were W 4th 4th Lost
* It has been done and Graded Bumper form is respected
* I would have to strongly prefer SOMERSBY

SELECTION – SOMERSBY 3/1

* SOMERSBY comes from a maiden hurdle this year
* Several 4 year olds did that in similar races
* Those like SOMERSBY that were 1-2-3-4 last time out were strong
* His run this year must give him a very strong chance
* He is reported as one of Henrietta Knights best prospects
* When he ran the stable were out of form and struggling
* They have now had their 1st winner this year
* He was bound to have badly needed that opening run 3 weeks ago

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