Eider Chase Ante Post Preview

Below is a bit of early analysis Guy sent to full members yesterday.

The Future Betting Angles sub section of his daily full member messages

contains regular bits and bobs of ante post related thought.

Yesterday his eyes were fixed on the Eider Chase.

I guess you could consider this phase one early work.

He will dig deeper into the race closer to the off.

It was an easy snippet to copy and paste up here

so I thought I would share it with you in case you had any interest in the race yourself.

 


Ante Post

Saturday February 23rd

Newcastle

EIDER CHASE

Daklondike 10/1 Ballydine 12/1 Calett Mad 12/1
Folsom Blue 12/1 Shades of Midnight 12/1
Kilkishen 12/1 Skipthescales 12/1 Baywing 12/1
Jammin Masters 12/1 Ange des Malberaux 12/1
Back To The Thatch 12/1 Beware The Bear 12/1
Big River 14/1 The Last Samuri 14/1 Yala Enki 14/1
Cogry 14/1 Dinnie's Vinnie 16/1 Chef d'Oeuvre 16/1
Crosspark 16/1 Sharp Response 16/1 Missed Approach16/1
Just Your Type 16/1 West of The Edge 16/1 Takingrisks 16/1
Raz de Maree 20/1 Geronimo 20/1 Rock On Fruity  20/1
Vicente 20/1 Harry The Viking 20/1 Otago Trail 20/1
Red Infantry 20/1 Kimberlite Candy 20/1 Progress Drive  25/1
Lovely Job 25/1 Regal Flow 25/1 Zerachiel 25/1
Prime Venture 25/1 Donna's Diamond 25/1 Potters Corner 25/1
Little Bruce 33/1 Chic Name 33/1 Morney Wing 33/1
Sideways  33/1 Total Assets 33/1 Courtown Oscar 33/1
Shelford 33/1 Mysteree 33/1 Two Smokin Barrels 40/1
Kilcullen Flem 50/1 Court Frontier 50/1 Newtown Lad  66/1
Crank Em Up 80/1


4m Handicap Chase

One of my favourite races

52 horses are entered in this

Running plans not yet clear

Today I want to eliminate a few

Coming from different blocks of horses



UNLIKELY TO RUN

Based on recent renewals
The following horses are rated too low
And probably will not make the cut

Total Assets 33/1
Sideways  33/1
Kilcullen Flem 50/1
Court Frontier 50/1
Newtown Lad  66/1
Crank Em Up 80/1


AGE

Horses aged 14 + have never won
The last winner aged 13 was 1987
The last winner aged 12 was 1995

14 year olds

Raz de Maree 20/1 is rejected
Harry The Viking 20/1 is rejected

12 year olds

Handicap Chases since 1998
Any Time of year
3m 6f or more
Class 2 or higher
Look at horses aged 12 or more
They have a miserable 1-188 record
That was Amberleigh House in the National

Regal Flow 25/1 is a 12yo
Folsom Blue 25/1 is a 12yo


NUMBER OF CHASE RUNS

Past winners
Had these Chase runs
7 7 11 8 11 5 5 7 13 21 9 7 13 13 8

If you look at the last 16 winners
15 of these had under 14 career starts

The following horses
All look exposed and vulnerable

Number of Chase runs

39 Harry The Viking
35 Morney Wing
31 Raz de Maree
30 Folsom Blue
29 Cogry
26 Dinnie's Vinnie
25 Regal Flow
24 Rock On Fruity
23 Court Frontier
23 West of The Edge
22 Yala Enki
20 Vicente
19 The Last Samuri


OFFICIAL RATINGS

All past winners since 1997
Were rated 140 or lower

Yala Enki is rated 156
Tough ask when short of runs
Otago Trail 20/1 is rated 152
Beware The Bear 12/1 is rated 151
He will fail breeding stats as well
Daklondike is rated 148
Thats 8lbs more than all past winners
He is not the best aged anyway as a 7yo
You can argue he is underraced this season
Baywing 12/1 is rated 147
I see him as underraced explained later
Calett Mad 12/1 is rated 147
Thats far more than all past winners
Not safe as a 7yo with an absence
Missed Approach 16/1 is rated 145
He has raced just once this season


RUNS THIS SEASON

If you look at past winners
How many races they had ran
Since August 1st that season
They had 4 2 3 5 3 3 5 2 5 3 4 4 6 7 7 4 3 6 6 runs

In the last at 19 renewals
17 of the 19 winners had 3 + runs that year
19 of the 19 winners had 2 + runs that year

Horses rejected
With just 1 run this season

Missed Approach 16/1
Zerachiel 25/1
Courtown Oscar 33/1

Horses rejected
With just 2 runs this season

Kilcullen Flem
Big River
Harry The Viking
Vicente
Baywing
Beware The Bear
The Last Samuri
Lovely Job
Yala Enki
Progress Drive

INEXPERIENCED

Past winners had these Chase runs
7 7 11 8 11 5 5 7 13 21 9 7 13 13 8
No winners had under 5 chase starts

Just Your Type 16/1 has 3 chase runs
Skipthescales 12/1 has 2 chase runs


OTHER OBJECTIONS

Don't want to risk a horse
Out of form and not running well enough
This pair look vulnerable on this angle
Shelford 33/1
Mysteree 33/1

Back To The Thatch 10/1

He may be the ante post favourite
But there are breeding stats against him

Worries me his sire is Westerner

Horses sired by Westerner
Running in Class 2 or higher
Have a 0-55 record over 3m 2f and more
Back To The Thatch fails this statistic

Little Bruce is 7 years old
Only 2 winners aged 7 won since 1997
Horses aged 7 won in 1998 and 2012
They both ran within the last 3 weeks
Little Bruce does not do that

This leaves the following horses
Who have not yet failed a major angle
Several of these will not be running

Early Shortlist

Ballydine 12/1
Shades of Midnight 12/1
Kilkishen 12/1
Jammin Masters 12/1
Ange des Malberaux 12/1
Chef d'Oeuvre 16/1
Crosspark 16/1
Sharp Response 16/1
Takingrisks 16/1
Geronimo 20/1
Red Infantry 20/1
Kimberlite Candy 20/1
Prime Venture 25/1
Donna's Diamond 25/1
Potters Corner 25/1
Chic Name 33/1
Two Smokin Barrels 40/1

Can pick this up again soon

Feels a race we can get sorted

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on February 15, 2019

Tags: ,

Cheltenham – Arkle RSA Chase and Gold Cup

Today I am just quickly posting up a quick copy and paste
extract from our more comprehensive full member
message today. This is from the Future Betting Angles
message subsection.

This FBA section is a little regular extra for members
here that comes in addition to the daily racing analysis.
As the name implies this bit is focused on future
ante post racing.
Several Cheltenham Festival races get a mention.

Guy here is also doing a lot of Grand National
profiling research at the minute for full members
but I ducked posting that here as it makes less sense
to see just one day of it in isolation.

========================================================






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


The Saturday and Sundays cards
Look ridiculously vibrant + classy

I made the point the other day
The midweek cards are rubbish
The quality pushed to Saturday
It comes at you so thick and fast
Leaving little time to consider it
That is designed and deliberate

If you look at Oddschecker site
And the Ante Post Racing page
The markets open this weekend
This simply makes your jaw drop

Some of the weekend meetings
Will be dependent on the weather
Leopardstown has a 2 day fixture
Top class full of Cheltenham horses
This meeting is far from being safe
They have a foul weather forecast

Many horses running this weekend
Are having final Cheltenham preps

Buveau D'Air should be one of them
He will be long odds on at Sandown
But that meeting could be in doubt
If we lose meetings at the weekend
Many horses just like Buveau D'Air
Will miss their Cheltenham prep runs




Cheltenham Festival

Tomorrow entries are published
On the following Festival races

Supreme Novice Hurdle - 99 entered
Ballymore Novice Hurdle -139 entered
Triumph Hurdle - 59 entered
Albert Bartlet - 107 entered


Pricewise

Recently previews some races
These are their idea of the best bets

Rsa Chase
Topofthegame
1pt win at 8-1

Arkle Chase
Le Richebourg
1pt win at 7-1


The last time I did the Arkle Chase
LE RICHEBOURG was my provisional selection
I would agree with Pricewise here


RSA Chase

3/1Santini 9/2 Delta Work 7/1 Topofthegame
14/1 Vindication 16/1 OKCorral 20/1 On The Blind Side
25/1 Mortal 25/1 Champagne Classic

Paul Kealy in the Racing Post Weekender
Has also covered this race this week
Like Pricewise he selects Topofthegame

TOP OF THE GAME may look obvious
Has a chance but I still prefer others

There are now 41 days to Cheltenham
TOP OF THE GAME has not won a chase
He has failed in all 3 of his chases so far
So unless he runs quickly and he wins
Then he will be a maiden over fences

If as expected he does not run
Then he faces another problem
TOP OF THE GAME has 2 runs this season

Look at the last 19 renewals
18 of the previous 19 winners
Had at least 3 runs this season
TOP OF THE GAME does not match this

SANTINI has the same problem
DELTA WORK has 3 runs this season
Although as a 6yo he is not the best age

Assuming none of these will run again
The decision may be a statistical trade off
Will DELTA ROCKS extra run this season
Compensate for him being a 6yo
When his two market rivals
Santini and Top Of The Game
Have raced just twice this season
When just 1 of the last 9 winners did so
There could be other options available
The last time I looked at this race
I liked SANTINI and DELTA WORK best
Would be happy to bet both as a pair
In two each way doubles with something



Cheltenham Gold Cup

Stuart Riley in The Racing Post
Did a piece recent about Native River

His argument
Native River is not a likely winner
As Gold Cup winners don't win again
He says the last to do it Best Mate 2002
He states just 4 managed this in 50 years
There is some merit in what he says

NATIVE RIVER is around 13/2 on Betfair
I have already backed him as a saver bet
I'm happy with that position right now
Have the option to upgraded him to a bet
Have the option to choose something else

Unless the ground is really soft
I probably will choose something else
Although "Good Ground" is unlikely
It could happen if it dries out that week
He has never won a chase outside soft

There just feels like this is a year
Where we could get quite a big field
There are a lot of improvers in there
NATIVE RIVERS win in the 2018 Gold Cup
Was a slog on very bad ground
If conditions are different this year
He may find some have overtaken him

The Previous 22 Gold Cup winners
Had the following career chase runs

12 9 18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11
12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

NATIVE RIVER has 15 Chase runs

21 of the last 23 Gold Cup winners
Had under 15 previous chase runs
So he will not be the snuggest fit

Staying with last years race

ROAD TO RESPECT was 4th

I gave him every chance in 2018
But did not select him  for 1 reason
I was concerned about his stamina
He was beaten 12 lengths on soft

If the ground is faster this season
I could easily go with him this year

I have read a few arguments for him
People that I quietly follow on twitter
That I think can teach me something
One person I follow is all over him

There is 1 complication

ROAD TO RESPECT runs Sunday
Favourite for the Irish Gold Cup
We don't know if the meeting will be on
If it is and he wins he will half in price
If it is and he loses he will appeal less

Right now he's certainly on my shortlist



Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on January 31, 2019

Tags: , , ,

Cheltenham Festival Ryanair Chase

Cheltenham Festival   
  
March 14th

Ryanair Chase


Looking at the Ryanair Chase today
Impossible to have an outright selection
I am just shortlisting the ideal types.

Current Rough Ante Post Odds
7/1 Waiting Patiently 7/1 Min 10/1 Top Notch
12/1 Monalee 16/1 Politologue 16/1 Un De Sceaux
18/1 Fox Norton 18/1 Aso 20/1 Balko Des Flos 
20/1 Tout Est Permis 22/1 Frodon 22/1 Footpad 
25/1 Charbel  33/1 Al Boum Photo 33/1 Coney Island  
40/1 Kemboy
  
Grade 1 Chase over 2m 4.5f
14 renewals of this race 
Upgraded to a Grade 1 in 2008

The is an Ante Post nightmare 
Never know which horses will run
Most of them have alternative races

Betfair have 16 horses
that are under 40/1 right now
So trying to filter through a few

Number of Chase runs

21 Frodon
19 Un De Sceaux 
18 Aso
18 Fox Norton 
15 Balko Des Flos 
14 Politologue
12 Top Notch
11 Charbel 
11 Tout Est Permis
9 Min
8  Kemboy
7 Coney Island  
7 Waiting Patiently 
7 Al Boum Photo
7  Footpad  
7 Monalee

 
The last 7 winners

Had 10 11 6 9 7 8 8  Chase runs 
They all had 7-11 previous chases
That would be the ideal mixture

Horses with 12 or more Chases
Have a 0-32 record since 2011

They won a couple before that
But recent years have struggled

FRODON with 21 Chase runs
Is the most exposed of the main runners
That would put me off his chance
He's never performed in the Spring

UN DE SCEAUX is 11 years old
No horse that age has won this race
2 years older than his biggest rivals
With 19 Chase runs looks vulnerable
ASO is exposed with 18 Chases
Well beaten in the race before
FOX NORTON has 18 Chase runs
Not the best age or exposure level
 
BALKO DES FLOS has 15 chases
Thats 4 more than the last 7 winners
He did win the race last year
And his owners sponsor the race
So it is far too early to rule him out
But he is not like recent winners now

POLITOLOGUE has 14 chase runs
Thats more than recent winners
Never seems to deliver at the festival
Unplaced on all 4 Cheltenham runs
He lacks enough positives for me

Some of these look unlikely runners
FOOTPAD may run in the Queen Mother
KEMBOY may run in the Gold Cup
 
TOUT EST PERMIS is only a 6yo
Only 1 horse his age has won this
That was before it was a Grade 1
He is far more exposed than he was

All 14 past winners 
Had 2-3-4 runs that season 
That seems quite significant
CHARBEL has more runs this year
On the go since last September
That is not like any past winner
Not bred like a Ryanair winner

WAITING PATIENTLY has had hold ups
So far he has raced once this season
He only got as far as 9 fences that day
I would want 2-3-4 runs this season
Every past winner had that
He is a long way from that right now
Could and needs to run this Saturday
That will help so asses him after that
But with 1 run and just 9 fences this year
He may look undercooked in March

Shortlist

CONEY ISLAND has 7 chase runs
That gets him on the shortlist
But he has no Cheltenham form
And is well behind on the ratings

AL BOUM PHOTO has 7 runs
Puts him in a good place statistically
Heed another run this season
That will probably come at the weekend
Obvious danger is running elsewhere

TOP NOTCH has 12 chase runs
I'd forgive him just 1 more than ideal
He is obviously a high class horse
Should get the small field he wants
The smaller the better as he is undersized
Could be the one but not problem free
Past 8yo winners were less exposed

MONALEE has 7 chase runs
That is ideal and he is a positive
He could also run this weekend

MIN has 9 Chase starts
I have to see him as a positive
But he has other options elsewhere
He could run in the Queen Mother
At the moment just 1 run this year
Having 1 run would rule him out 
But he is likely to run on Saturday 






Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on January 23, 2019

Tags: , ,

Caspian Cup Stats

It was another good major race weekend last weekend
with Guy highlighting Walk The Mill at 16/1 for the Becher Chase.
That followed Sizing Tennesse at similar odds the week before in the Hennessy.

Copies of his exact stats, analysis and thought train to arrive there were in this and last weeks free newsletters.

I know many will never see beyond the idea of “give me a tip for today” but hopefully a small percentage of you with a desire to learn to fend for themselves  will see benefit in examining how experienced racing analyst Guy tackled his analysis of those two recent major races.

This weeks free news also provided a few starter stats for this Saturday’s Caspian Gold Cup at Cheltenham.

Here are the links

Last Weeks Free Newsletter

 

This Weeks Free Newsletter

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on December 15, 2018

Tags: ,

Beecher Chase Age Stats And More

 

I can’t believe it has been so long since I posted up on this blog.

Time flies and I have been busy over on the main Mathematician site I guess.

I must find a way to spur myself on to do more here in future.

Perhaps some form of electronic device that includes  sparky high powered batteries and a countdown timer that resets on each blog post.

Get some  some wires connected to my testicles and hey presto  we have an effective  “better do a blog post soon” motivation device.

Perhaps that may do the trick.

Dragons Den here I come.

No doubt that when presented with such genius the dragons will be fighting to throw millions at my invention.

Phase 2 then would be product development.

That would be an improved device with the ability to apply the testicular charge remotely using suped up wireless charging technology, to any bookmaker trader who seemed to think 37 pence is a reasonable maximum  stake to offer a punter.

Who would like to buy one 🙂

I will gladly give the first 500 beta testers here the product at cost price.

 

Anyhow getting back on track to racing and away from Christmas roast chestnuts

I am going to point you over to an online copy of today’s free newsletter rant.

There is a bit of a mix and match of stuff inside.

For starters there is detail on Beecher Chase Ages Stats that you may find of use for Saturday.

Also a look back at last weeks Hennessy and a few points of possible learning to extract from it.

Plus there is a  rant on so called glowing testimonials you may see on some racing sites.

Bar the Beecher stuff which is obviously time sensitive to tomorow, most of the rest is less so and should still be as idioticaly useless  in six months time as it is today.

Teaching grandmother to suck eggs for a few of you but hopefully beneficial enlightenment to some others.

 

Here is the link

==>  More Fishy Than A Sushi Bar

 

Best Wishes

Mick

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on December 7, 2018