Lincoln Handicap Stats

The Lincoln Handicap as a large field size handicap
is often a bit of a nightmare to assess.

The Lincoln however is usually a welcome sight
as it indicates the start of the new flat season.

The extract below is taken from our full Member message
of Sunday March 24th.

Those of you self thinkers who prefer to select your own
horses may find the researched stats below of some assistance
in narrowing down your personal shortlist.

If on the other hand you are more so a boss type
who prefers to pay slave wages and get someone else to
do all the hard work feel free to gather a few coppers together
to drum up £3 for our Saturday Service this week.

The Saturday message will cover the Lincoln and more.

=====================================

Ante Post Statistics Lincoln Handicap

Next Saturday ( March 29th )

 

9/2 Auxerre 10/1 Kynren 12/1 Ripp Orf 12/1 Humbert
14/1 Ibraz 16/1 Lord Oberon 16/1 Ledham 16/1 Zwayyan
16/1 South Seas 16/1 Mizaah 20/1 Chilean 20/1 Chiefofchiefs
20/1 Qaysar 20/1 Qaroun 20/1 Safe Voyage 20/1 Hathal
20/1 Silver Quartz 20/1 Battered 25/1 Ballard Down
25/1 Aquarium 25/1 Beringer 25/1 Breden 25/1 Remarkable
25/1 Salute The Soldier 25/1 Gabrial 25/1 Third Time Lucky
33/1 Masham Star 33/1 Book of Dreams 33/1 Chatez
33/1 Circus Couture 33/1 Dawaaleeb 33/1 Saltonstall
33/1 Exec Chef 33/1 Great Prospector 33/1 Al Jellaby
33/1 Sods Law 33/1 Wahash 33/1 Waarif 33/1 Another Batt
33/1 Isomer 40/1 Monoxide 40/1 Calling Out 40/1 Protected Guest
40/1 Raydiance 40/1 Rise Hall 40/1 Gulf Of Poets 40/1 Ventura Knight
40/1 Medieval 40/1 Borderforce 40/1 Prevent 40/1 Brian The Snail
40/1 Petrus 40/1 Calvados Spirit 40/1 Dragon Mall 50/1 Fake News
50/1 Delph Crescent 50/1 Fayez 50/1 Gossiping 50/1 Apex King
50/1 Starlight Romance 50/1 Weld Al Emarat 50/1 Pastime
50/1 Rampant Lion 50/1 Crownthorpe 50/1 Robsdelight
50/1 Sands Chorus 50/1 Detachment

 

 

Monday there is an entry stage
The above field will get reduced
Declarations coming on Thursday
When we will see the final field

A Class 2 Handicap over a Mile

Last 3 winners were 4 year olds
4yo’s have won 9 of the last 14

 

Your 4yo should be Male
Ideally have between 4 and 20 starts
Should be a seasonal debutant
But not absent over 7 months
Not coming from a 3yo handicap

 

Stay with horses aged 4-5-6
Horses aged 7 or more since 1999
Have an overall 0-67 record

 

Horses with under 4 career runs
Have a 0-13 record in this race

 

Go back to the 2000 renewal
Horses with 9st 5lbs or more
Have a poor 1-57 record

 

Apprentice Jockeys had a 1-82 record
5lbs and 7lbs claimers are 0-43

 

18 of the last 19 winners
Came from Class 2-3 races
None came from Class 4-5-6

 

Horses from Listed/Group races
Have a poor overall 1-72 record
In the last 14 years they were 0-51

 

The Draw is often guesswork
The last 3 winners drawn 10 15 20 22

Go back to 2001
Doncaster races over a Mile
Any kind of race any time of year
Horses Aged 5 or more
Drawn 17 or higher have a 0-139 record

 

12 renewals since 2005
11 of the 12 winners rated between 95-105
The last 5 winners rated 99 102 100 100 100

 

No horse has won absent 239 + days
None won absent over 211 days since 2002

 

Horses that came from 9f or more
Won 7 of the previous 13 renewals
Of which 3 came via a Cambridgeshire

 

 

AUXERRE is the favourite
He has been consistently backed

He is a 4yo seasonal debutant
We have seen 9 of these win recently
They had 7 11 4 14 6 5 15 12 5 runs

AUXERRE has just 4 runs
The 2005 winner Stream Of Gold
Did have the same profile as him
But that was quite a long time ago

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 28, 2019

Tags: ,

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip 2019

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

Guy has a strong record in this race over the past ten years.
Highlights would include.

2014 – On His Own ew @ 22/1 2nd by a nose
2012 – Synchronised WON 10/1
2011 – Long Run WON 5/1
2010 – Imperial Commander WON 12/1
2008 – Denman WON 9/4

Account for some losers and breakeven
placed ew bets on other years and the long term net
big picture is pretty strong.

So what does he have for you this year?

Quite a long odds specualtive one this year it happens.

Good luck should you decide to follow.

================================================

Cheltenham 3.30

4/1 Native River, 9/2 Clan Des Obeaux, 9/2 Presenting Percy,
8/1 Bellshill, 9/1 Kemboy, 14/1 Al Boum Photo, Thistlecrack,
16/1 Might Bite, 20/1 Bristol De Mai, 20/1 Elegant Escape,
25/1 Anibale Fly, Shattered Love, 33/1 Invitation Only,
40/1 Definitly Red, 100/1 Double Shuffle, Yala Enki.

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Number of Chase runs

23 Yala Enki
21 Bristol De Mai
20 Double Shuffle
18 Definitly Red
15 Native River
14 Anibale Fly
13 Might Bite
13 Clan Des Obeaux
11 Elegant Escape
11 Shattered Love
9 Invitation Only,
9 Bellshill
8 Thistlecrack
8 Kemboy
7 Al Boum Photo
5 Presenting Percy

17 of the 19 winners
Shared the following profile

1) Under 10 years old
2) Under 15 Chase runs
3) Absent more than 4 weeks
4) Coming from a Graded race
5) Starting under 10/1 last time
6) Under 21 lifetime runs
7) Starting 20/1 or shorter

Horses with this profile

PRESENTING PERCY
SHATTERED LOVE
ELEGANT ESCAPE
KEMBOY

Thats an interesting shortlist

AL BOUM PHOTO is not first choice
Firstly Ruby Walsh has rejected him
He has raced just once this season
Previous Gold Cup winners aged 7
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
Worried about a 7yo with just 1 run
His sire hasn’t had a winner over this far

The Previous 23 Gold Cup winners
Had the following career chase runs

12 9 18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11
12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

21 of the 23 last Gold Cup winners
Had under 15 previous chase runs
BRISTOL DE MAI is a bit too exposed
DEFINITLY RED has the same problem

Horses aged 10 or more
Score very badly these days
They are 0-75 since 1999
They are 1-104 since 1992

THISTLECRACK is too old Aged 11
Has not won a race since 2016
MIGHT BITE is rejected aged 10
Flopped on his two runs this season

CLAN DES OBEAUX is improving
He has had a very impressive season
I have two problems with his chance
Horses running in the Gold Cup
Running in the previous 32 days
Have a 0-63 record since 1997

CLAN DES OBEAUX ran 27 days ago
His Denman Chase win is a concern
Will this race come too quickly
Has a stamina problem as well
Horses sired by Kapgarde
Running in Listed and Graded races
Racing over 3m 1f and more
Have a 0-15 record so far
Improving and could easily win
But the above issues make me nervous

ANIBALE FLY shares a similar problem
Horses running in the Gold Cup
Running in the previous 32 days
Have a 0-63 record since 1997
The last 17 winners of this race
Had won a Grade 1 race and he hasn’t
He has had 22 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts

KEMBOY is a 7 year old
Long been on my shortlist for this
But there are 3 factors against him
But Past 7yo Gold Cup winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
Kemboy has raced only twice
Sire has had no wins yet over 3m 2f +
Not so bothered about that argument
But Ruby Walsh has turned him down
For him to win Walsh has to be wrong

NATIVE RIVER

15 Chase starts is forgivable
But he has had 23 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts

He did win the race last season
Only 4 of the last 50 winners
Followed up and won this again
Will one or two improve past him
The stableform another problem

PRESENTING PERCY

Made the original Shortlist
But that avoided his main problem
Not run over fences in 12 months
Many say he is the second coming
Obviously high class and fancied
Nobody really knows how he will run
But his profile is too extreme for me

BELLSHILL

Always looked promising for this
His 9 Chase runs is good
21 lifetime runs is about the maximum
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts
But Ruby Walsh has chosen him

INVITATION ONLY is an 8yo
High class horse on his day
But he comes from a handicap
He is low down the stable pecking order
Ruby Walsh has rejected him
He is 0-4 in his Grade 1 races so far

ELEGANT ESCAPE

Surprisingly good positives
Made the original shortlist of 4
Sired by Dubai Destination worries me
Flat bred and I can’t have the pedigree
But I can be a sire snob in these matters
I said the same before the Welsh National

That was an astonishing performance
The 3 horses winning that with 11st 6lbs +
All went on to win a Cheltenham Gold Cup
He has defied his pedigree before
Can’t be ruled out with 11 chase runs
But Colin Tizzards horses are very flat
His run after Chepstow was decent
Race came soon enough after Chepstow
Very hard to come out of that race
Within the next month and win any race
And second to Frodon looks good now
I like that he made my original shortlist
We get 20/1 to compensate for negatives
The top of which would be the stableform

INVITATION ONLY won the Thyestes
Beat Alpha Des Obeaux that day
Next day in Future Betting Angles
Said I had a small bet at 50/1 to win this

SHATTERED LOVE is a mare
No reason at all why that is an issue
Intriguing she made my first shortlist
Official Ratings have her way behind
But she is a huge price to compensate
And her form can be upgraded
Cheltenham Festival winner last year
Fairyhouse came too soon for her next
Only a couple of weeks after Cheltenham
Went to the well too often at Punchestown
Those April races last season
Were her 7th and 8th run of the season
Not easy to see her as over the top
This year a much lighter campaign
Obviously it is a leap of faith
But I think she is underestimated

Astonishing race
Deep strength in depth

Think we have to stay
With the lighter raced profiles
And not be afraid of big prices
Which is why I am going with value

£2.25 Each Way SHATTERED LOVE 25/1

£2.25 Each Way INVITATION ONLY 33/1

£1.00 Win Bet ELEGANT ESCAPE 18/1

———————————

PS Odds above were rough average market odds
when this was sent out to full members earlier this morning.
Do your best to hunt around for best prices at the time toy bet yourself.
You may even find higher than the above in spots.

Note most bookies are offering 4 places.

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 15, 2019

Tags: ,

Imperial Cup Stats

Just a few advance researched stats for
you for Saturday’s Imperial Cup at Sandown.

Phase 1 stuff I would deem these.

They are primarily all about
identifying elements of form
that have historically produced
either positive or negative effect.

Phase 2 then would be a later secondary
stage where actual runners are assessed
against such positive and negative trends.

Phase 3 is then attempting to interpret it all
to try and find value in the market. Phase 3 is
normally finalised on the morning of the race
once runners and going are more fully defined.

There is no miracle system.

More so hard work and effort at research
can help one make more consistently
accurate decisions about winners, losers and value.

 

 

 

Saturday Sandown 2.25pm

Imperial Cup Race Statistics

 

The last 20 winners of this race
All ran within the previous 92 days

Past winners of this race
Had the following hurdle runs
15 4 5 4 4 19 8 6 5 3 3 9

An exposed winner last year
Normally winners have <10 hurdle runs

Recent winners of this race
Had the following runs that year
4 8 5 8 4 8 3 6 6 3 3 8

None have won with 0-1-2 runs

Horses aged 7 or more
Have a 4-145 record since 2001
All 4 of these winners aged 7 +
Carried 10st 5lbs or less weight
Horses aged 7 or older
Who carry 10st 6lbs or more
Have a 0-94 record in this
Horses aged 7 or more
Absent more than 6 weeks
Have a 0-42 record in this race

The last 16 winners of this race
Had never won more than twice before

Since the 2009 renewal
Horses from Novice or Maiden Hurdles
Have a 0-34 record in this handicap

Since 2001
Horses from Handicap Hurdles
9 or more previous hurdle runs
Have a 1-118 record in this race
That sole winner was last season

Horses with 11st 3lbs or more
Have a 0-55 record in this since 2004

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on March 7, 2019

Tags:

Cheltenham Gold Cup – Early Analysis

Below is a snippet from our Full member message of yesterday
in which Guy was having an early look at this year's
Cheltenham Gold Cup.

I thought I would post it up here in case any
of you blog readers had an interest.

Note as well that it has been tradition over the past 
few years to also post up here on the blog his 
final judgement Gold Cup Analysis. 

Typically this will be on the morning of the race.
This year we will probably do the same.
I temper it with the "probably" only because
one can never guarantee how things will pan out.
Cheltenham non runner no bet markets do give
a certain comfort to slightly earlier than day of the race 
betting.There is always a chance that Guy may spy a degree of 
extra edge from earlier Gold Cup advice for our full members.
eg say for example there was a change in predicted going for 
Gold Cup day two days before the race. Perhaps under NRNB it 
may be shrewd to take the current price on a going suited 
horses instead of waiting for two days
when it will likely be shorter.

Hence "probably" here on Gold Cup day :)

The best spot to be of course is in as a full member for 
Cheltenham month.

We will actually be doing a cheap offer deal as we 
have done in past years.
Many major festival only types come back year 
after year for the Cheap Cheltenham month deal.

Drop me an email if you want more info
See http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/contact.asp





===================================================
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Today I wanted to make some progress

On the Cheltenham Gold Cup

Which is now just 16 days away



Cheltenham Gold Cup

9/2 Clan Des Obeaux 9/1 Presenting Percy
6/1 Native River 11/1 Kemboy 14/1 Might Bite
16/1 Thistlecrack 20/1  Al Boum Photo
25/1 Road To Respect 33/1 Elegant Escape
33/1 Shattered Love


If you go back to 1999

19 renewals
17 of the 19 winners
Shared the following profile

1) Under 10 years old
2) Under 15 Chase runs
3) Absent more than 4 weeks
4) Coming from a Graded race
5) Starting under 10/1 last time
6) Under 21 lifetime runs
7) Starting 20/1 or shorter


19 renewals since 1999
75 horses had this profile
17 of these won the race

Horses with this profile

Presenting Percy
Shattered Love
Elegant Escape
Kemboy

Just looking at that shortlist
KEMBOY would be my preference

I would not use this profile religiously
It would only take minor adjustments
And I could add other horses to the list
Take the example of Al Boum Photo
Just ran in Listed class not Graded class
I could easily forgive a few horses angles
Road To Respect could have got there


Anyway

Wanted to have a look at the main runners
Listed some of their positives + negatives
And see where we ended up at the end

9/2 Clan Des Obeaux 9/1 Presenting Percy
6/1 Native River 11/1 Kemboy 14/1 Might Bite
16/1 Thistlecrack 20/1  Al Boum Photo
25/1 Road To Respect 33/1 Elegant Escape
33/1 Shattered Love


Number of Chase runs

22 Frodon
21 Bristol De Mai
18 Definitly Red
15 Native River
15 Road To Respect
14 Anibale Fly
13 Might Bite
13 Clan Des Obeaux
11 Elegant Escape
11 Shattered Love
9 Bellshill
8 Thistlecrack
8 Kemboy
7 Al Boum Photo
5 Presenting Percy


This is an illustration
Of how exposed the main runners are

The Previous 23 Gold Cup winners
Had the following career chase runs

12 9 18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11
12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

21 of the 23 last Gold Cup winners
Had under 15 previous chase runs



FRODON

22 Chase runs
Just looks too exposed

BRISTOL DE MAI

21 Chase runs
Just looks too exposed

DEFINITLY RED
18 Chase runs
Not in line with almost all winners

NATIVE RIVER

15 Chase starts is forgiveable
But he has had 23 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts
He did win the race last season
Only 4 of the last 50 winners
Followed up and won this again
Will one or two improve past him
Can he repeat previous heroics
When the ground may not be soft

THISTLECRACK

11 years old
Horses aged 10 or more
Have a very poor  record
They are 0-75 since 1999
They are 1-104 since 1992
He has also had 23 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts
Has not won a race since 2016

MIGHT BITE

10 years old
Horses aged 10 or more
Have a very poor  record
They are 0-75 since 1999
They are 1-104 since 1992
Flopped on his two runs this season

PRESENTING PERCY

5 Chase runs
You can win this with 5
Interrupted Season
Just 1 run this year (hurdles)

CLAN DES OBEAUX

Has a 27 day absence
Horses running in the Gold Cup
Running in the previous 32 days
Have a 0-63 record since 1997
Has a stamina problem as well
Horses sired by Kapgarde
Running in Listed and Graded races
Racing over 3m 1f and more
Have a 0-15 record so far

ANIBALE FLY

Not a certain runner
Horses running in the Gold Cup
Running in the previous 32 days
Have a 0-63 record since 1997
The last 17 winners of this race
Had won a Grade 1 race and he hasn't
He has had 22 lifetime starts
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts

SHATTERED LOVE

She is a mare
Official Ratings have her way behind
Big price if you wanted to risk her

ELEGANT ESCAPE

Defied his pedigree before
Can't be ruled out with 11 chase runs
But flat bred and just can't have the pedigree


Leaning more towards these horses


AL BOUM PHOTO

He is a 7yo
Has raced just once this season
Past 7yo Gold Cup winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
Worried about a 7yo with 1 run
That is my only problem with him
Two recent winners had 1 run that year
Thats a positive but none were 7yo's
He is also coming from a sire
Without a winner over this far

KEMBOY

He is a 7yo
Maybe fast improving
But Past 7yo Gold Cup winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
Kemboy has raced only twice
Sire has no wins yet over 3m 2f +

INVITATION ONLY

Backed him at 50/1 some time ago
Seen as not a certain runner

ROAD TO RESPECT

15 Chase runs is acceptable
Finished a decent 4th in 2018 race
Connections say he wants it soft
His numbers don't really prove this
Stamina may be an issue sired by Gamut
His sires runners in Class 4 or higher
None have yet won beyond 3m 1f (0-13)
I would not rule him out on the above

BELLSHILL

9 Chase runs is good
21 lifetime runs is the maximum
Only 1 of the previous 20 winners
Had more than 20 lifetimes starts


Provisional Shortlist

INVITATION ONLY 50/1 (WP Mullins)
AL BOUM PHOTO 20/1 (WP Mullins)
KEMBOY 10/1 (WP Mullins)
BELLSHILL 14/1 (WP Mullins)
ROAD TO RESPECT 25/1


Obviously things can change
May have a completely different view later
But these 5 horses interested me most

4 of the 5 shortlisted
Are trained by Willie Mullins

Can't find any prices yet
Just for Mullins to win this race
But that could be an option later on

This list could be whittled down
Invitation Only may run elsewhere

Obviously the biggest headache
Not knowing the stable pecking order
But looking at this experimental shortlist
Looking at the prices and frame of race

If the race was being run today
I would probably stake it this way

£2.50 Each Way KEMBOY 10/1
£2.50 Each Way BELLSHILL 14/1

The race is not being run today
There is still much we do not know
Such as ground and running plans
Still clinging on for the vain hope
That we may be offered 4 places
I don't think we will get that though

But this is where I am with the race

No final selection ( just yet )
***************************************************
***************************************************









Posted under Major Horse Races

Eider Chase Ante Post Preview

Below is a bit of early analysis Guy sent to full members yesterday.

The Future Betting Angles sub section of his daily full member messages

contains regular bits and bobs of ante post related thought.

Yesterday his eyes were fixed on the Eider Chase.

I guess you could consider this phase one early work.

He will dig deeper into the race closer to the off.

It was an easy snippet to copy and paste up here

so I thought I would share it with you in case you had any interest in the race yourself.

 


Ante Post

Saturday February 23rd

Newcastle

EIDER CHASE

Daklondike 10/1 Ballydine 12/1 Calett Mad 12/1
Folsom Blue 12/1 Shades of Midnight 12/1
Kilkishen 12/1 Skipthescales 12/1 Baywing 12/1
Jammin Masters 12/1 Ange des Malberaux 12/1
Back To The Thatch 12/1 Beware The Bear 12/1
Big River 14/1 The Last Samuri 14/1 Yala Enki 14/1
Cogry 14/1 Dinnie's Vinnie 16/1 Chef d'Oeuvre 16/1
Crosspark 16/1 Sharp Response 16/1 Missed Approach16/1
Just Your Type 16/1 West of The Edge 16/1 Takingrisks 16/1
Raz de Maree 20/1 Geronimo 20/1 Rock On Fruity  20/1
Vicente 20/1 Harry The Viking 20/1 Otago Trail 20/1
Red Infantry 20/1 Kimberlite Candy 20/1 Progress Drive  25/1
Lovely Job 25/1 Regal Flow 25/1 Zerachiel 25/1
Prime Venture 25/1 Donna's Diamond 25/1 Potters Corner 25/1
Little Bruce 33/1 Chic Name 33/1 Morney Wing 33/1
Sideways  33/1 Total Assets 33/1 Courtown Oscar 33/1
Shelford 33/1 Mysteree 33/1 Two Smokin Barrels 40/1
Kilcullen Flem 50/1 Court Frontier 50/1 Newtown Lad  66/1
Crank Em Up 80/1


4m Handicap Chase

One of my favourite races

52 horses are entered in this

Running plans not yet clear

Today I want to eliminate a few

Coming from different blocks of horses



UNLIKELY TO RUN

Based on recent renewals
The following horses are rated too low
And probably will not make the cut

Total Assets 33/1
Sideways  33/1
Kilcullen Flem 50/1
Court Frontier 50/1
Newtown Lad  66/1
Crank Em Up 80/1


AGE

Horses aged 14 + have never won
The last winner aged 13 was 1987
The last winner aged 12 was 1995

14 year olds

Raz de Maree 20/1 is rejected
Harry The Viking 20/1 is rejected

12 year olds

Handicap Chases since 1998
Any Time of year
3m 6f or more
Class 2 or higher
Look at horses aged 12 or more
They have a miserable 1-188 record
That was Amberleigh House in the National

Regal Flow 25/1 is a 12yo
Folsom Blue 25/1 is a 12yo


NUMBER OF CHASE RUNS

Past winners
Had these Chase runs
7 7 11 8 11 5 5 7 13 21 9 7 13 13 8

If you look at the last 16 winners
15 of these had under 14 career starts

The following horses
All look exposed and vulnerable

Number of Chase runs

39 Harry The Viking
35 Morney Wing
31 Raz de Maree
30 Folsom Blue
29 Cogry
26 Dinnie's Vinnie
25 Regal Flow
24 Rock On Fruity
23 Court Frontier
23 West of The Edge
22 Yala Enki
20 Vicente
19 The Last Samuri


OFFICIAL RATINGS

All past winners since 1997
Were rated 140 or lower

Yala Enki is rated 156
Tough ask when short of runs
Otago Trail 20/1 is rated 152
Beware The Bear 12/1 is rated 151
He will fail breeding stats as well
Daklondike is rated 148
Thats 8lbs more than all past winners
He is not the best aged anyway as a 7yo
You can argue he is underraced this season
Baywing 12/1 is rated 147
I see him as underraced explained later
Calett Mad 12/1 is rated 147
Thats far more than all past winners
Not safe as a 7yo with an absence
Missed Approach 16/1 is rated 145
He has raced just once this season


RUNS THIS SEASON

If you look at past winners
How many races they had ran
Since August 1st that season
They had 4 2 3 5 3 3 5 2 5 3 4 4 6 7 7 4 3 6 6 runs

In the last at 19 renewals
17 of the 19 winners had 3 + runs that year
19 of the 19 winners had 2 + runs that year

Horses rejected
With just 1 run this season

Missed Approach 16/1
Zerachiel 25/1
Courtown Oscar 33/1

Horses rejected
With just 2 runs this season

Kilcullen Flem
Big River
Harry The Viking
Vicente
Baywing
Beware The Bear
The Last Samuri
Lovely Job
Yala Enki
Progress Drive

INEXPERIENCED

Past winners had these Chase runs
7 7 11 8 11 5 5 7 13 21 9 7 13 13 8
No winners had under 5 chase starts

Just Your Type 16/1 has 3 chase runs
Skipthescales 12/1 has 2 chase runs


OTHER OBJECTIONS

Don't want to risk a horse
Out of form and not running well enough
This pair look vulnerable on this angle
Shelford 33/1
Mysteree 33/1

Back To The Thatch 10/1

He may be the ante post favourite
But there are breeding stats against him

Worries me his sire is Westerner

Horses sired by Westerner
Running in Class 2 or higher
Have a 0-55 record over 3m 2f and more
Back To The Thatch fails this statistic

Little Bruce is 7 years old
Only 2 winners aged 7 won since 1997
Horses aged 7 won in 1998 and 2012
They both ran within the last 3 weeks
Little Bruce does not do that

This leaves the following horses
Who have not yet failed a major angle
Several of these will not be running

Early Shortlist

Ballydine 12/1
Shades of Midnight 12/1
Kilkishen 12/1
Jammin Masters 12/1
Ange des Malberaux 12/1
Chef d'Oeuvre 16/1
Crosspark 16/1
Sharp Response 16/1
Takingrisks 16/1
Geronimo 20/1
Red Infantry 20/1
Kimberlite Candy 20/1
Prime Venture 25/1
Donna's Diamond 25/1
Potters Corner 25/1
Chic Name 33/1
Two Smokin Barrels 40/1

Can pick this up again soon

Feels a race we can get sorted

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under Major Horse Races

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on February 15, 2019

Tags: ,