I do have what I feel are stronger bets today and have in fact tipped two firm bets today for my main clients at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk . They always moan however if I post for free my firm bets.  I guess they have a fair point.  This is from further down the message in my Profiles and Previews section.

Worth a nosey if devoid of inspiration yourself this afternoon.

N o t t i n g h a m   5.30

9/2 Join Up, 5/1 Myraid, 5/1 Woteva, 6/1 Alluring Star
6/1 Crocodile Bay, 6/1 Sky Diamond, 10/1 Caledonia Prince
10/1 Eyes On, 20/1 Centre Stage, 33/1 Femme Royale.

This is a low grade Apprentice handicap over a Mile.
I have problems with ALLURING STAR as she goes
up in distance as a filly. CALEDONIA PRINCE also
comes up in trip and was beaten too far doing that.
There are several here that fail for backclass with a
few having never run beyond a Class 5 grade before.
CALEDONIA PRINCE fails that. Both EYES ON
and MYRAID also fail that. CROCODILE BAY has
lots to prove aged 9 and coming up in distance. I’m
shortlisting Sky DIAMOND who has the class that
you require for the race. JOIN UP is also an option.
I think the best bet is WOTEVA. She has ran twice
now after a long break. Her last run illustrates there
is a good chance she retains her old ability and that
run showed just how well handicapped she was and I
think in light of no outstanding option she is the bet.

Selection

WOTEVA 13/2  Win Bet at several inc PaddyPower betfred
Sky DIAMOND 5/1 Saver at betfred

(Saver = a bet staked to break even if saver wins and main bet loses )

For latest bookmakers odds for this race see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-05-12/nottingham/17-30/betting/

For Latest Odds on this race see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-05-05/thirsk/14-40/betting/

This 6f Classified Stakes race is a statistical mess and I
dont see a strong edge. All I can say is that in this and
similar races no fillies have won with under 7 runs and
none came from maidens so LOLLINA PAULINA and
SHOW FLOWER have plenty to prove. Horses with 1
run this year like Sky CROSSING have underperformed.
NEARLY A GIFT isnt right. FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN
has a difficult absence to overcome as most winners are
either seasonal debutants or ran within 2 weeks. That’s
narrowed it down to three admittedly unsafe options. I
respect DARK FALCON and FORTROSE ACADEMY.
I think the best profile belongs to HENRY BEE.

* Horses from 3yo maidens
* Running within 2 weeks
* Male horses
* 5 or more career starts
* Similar horses had a 4-6 record
* The 2003-2004 winners of this had this profile

Selection – HENRY BEE 7/1 Each Way

Coral – BoyleSports – betfred -  s james

.

For current live bookmaker odds see below

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-04-28/sandown-park/14-35/betting/

I don’t tend to cover the Celebration Chase in much detail.
I thought it was mouth watering this year but suspect this may
come down to the market leaders.

I think FRENCH OPERA  is short of runs this year something
he wasn’t when winning this last year.

The history of this shows we should consider horses from Grade 1
races and nothing else. SANCTUAIRE- WEST WITH THE WIND
and FRENCH OPERA fail that statistic. So do all the outsiders.

I think this will be a match. I love SOMERSBY and think he is Top Class.
Statistically I think WISHFULL THINKING is safer as he come from an
ideal prep race but I am not going with him.

SOMERSBY’s just a better class of horse for me and I think he will win.

It is not just me he owes money to. We could fill a message with what he wants
or doesn’t want and we wouldn’t be much wiser about this top class enigma.
I like the race though. It has negatives in it.

He is here as he is different class in my view and comfortably the best horse in this race and a bet.

Selection – SOMERSBY 3/1 @ Paddy Power – William Hill – Blue Square – Betfair

.

We do have another firm bet today that runs in the 6.05
So plenty of time to join up as a member proper
and pick that up in the member area.

As for todays Free Horse Racing Tip.
This is not a firm bet. More so extra analysis and info
from the message extra analysis section.

But it is the big race of the day and the most asked for preview
for the free betting blog.

The Scottish National

A y r   3.25

For live Scottish National Odds odds see
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-04-21/ayr/15-25/betting/

* The Scottish National is a 4m Handicap Chase
* I have looked at the last 18 renewals of this race
* I would avoid all horses that ran in the Grand National
* You have to go back to 1987 for the last One to win
* Over 80 horses have since tried and failed
* It is Just not the best preparation for this race
* JUNIOR has that against him
* Every past winner had at least 3 runs that season
* 3 3 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5
* I would want at least 3 and no more than 7 runs
* JUNIOR looks underraced this season to me
* Horses rated 150 or more have a 0-19 record in this
* JUNIOR also fails this statistic
* Horses that Fell or Pulled Up last time are 0-120
* No good coming here after a poor last run
* The following horses didnt do enough last time
* JUNIOR – ETXALAR
* You want some Experience over fences.
* The recent winners had the following Chase runs
* 4 10 16 13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10
* Since 1998 the 1st 2nd and 3rds that these chase runs
* 10 13 9 10 10 11 16 19 10 14 6 5 5 24 19 20 21 18 4
* 14 10 16 14 9 8 14 8 11 5 10 15 9 18 27 10 10 17 13
* No horse won or placed with fewer than 4 Chase starts.
* HARRY THE VIKING only has 3 Chase starts
* Thats one less than every 1st 2nd or 3rd
* HARRY THE VIKING doesnt come out that well
* HARRY THE VIKING is also a 7 year old
* We know 7 year olds dont win the Grand National
* In this race since 1992 they have a 1-55 record
* Horses aged 7 (1-55) look unsafe to me
* WALKON is 7 and may not get home
* PORTRAIT KING is 7 and lacks backclass
* He won the Eider last time and this is a second big test
* I see no evidence a 7 year old can do that
* OUR ISLAND – He isnt even 7 until next month
* Horses aged 11 or more were 3-89
* With horses this age I’d want at least 5 runs that season
* They all ran within 7 weeks and had 11st or less
* There was only 1 exposed winner aged 11 or more
* He had Graded form and 8 runs that season
* GARLETON – Not right as a 11 year old
* MERIGO – Has some flaws as an exposed 11yo
* The only winner like him had a more recent run
* He didnt win last time either and had more runs that year
* MERIGO – Credit for winning this in 2010 and 2nd last year
* ABBEYBRANEY – Wrong type of 11yo
* BALLYFITZ – HEEZ A STEEL dont offer enough aged 11 +
* 12 of the last 13 winners ran within 60 days
* ANY CURRENCY has been absent longer
* He looks underraced this year with that absence
* Horses from the Cheltenham Festival had a poor 3-89 record
* No exposed horse came from the Cheltenham festival to win
* The only winners were unexposed horses with Graded form
* They all had 10st 4lbs or less as well
* KNOCKARA BEAU fails that
* FRUITY O4ROONEY fails that
* PETTIFOUR fails that
* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled
* Only 1 past winner did that and he had a run within a week
* AURORAS ENCORE fails that statistic

* Horses from Novice Chases are 0-21
* QUENTIN COLLONGES fails that
* OUR ISLAND also fails that
* QUENTIN COLLONGES only has 3 runs this year
* Some doing that have won but none aged 8
* No winners came from Hurdles
* PETTIFOUR – KING FONTAINE fails that
* GALAXY ROCK also come from hurdles
* Exposed horses won 6 of the last 18 renewals
* All exposed horses that won had Graded form before
* All exposed horses came from 2m 7f or further
* AURORAS ENCORE – GARLETON fail that
* MAD AEDA doesnt look right
* The last 12 winners were all 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out
* The following horses failed to achieve that
* PETTIFOUR – OUR ISLAND – ANY CURRENCY
* MOSTLY BOB – BE THERE IN FIVE
* GALAXY ROCK is not a negative
* Thats despite coming from hurdles. I can overlook that
* Decided not to shortlist him as an exposed 8yo
* Those that won all had more runs that season
* They all had more backclass and came from further too
* BE THERE IN FIVE also looks underraced this year aged 8

S h o r t l i s t

* MOSTLY BOB  – Taking a chance on including him
* He had excused at Cheltenham and passes most stats
* Around 25/1 he could offer some value
* He was really progressive last year
* He has excuses in some races this year
* This track and ground could help him

* BENNY BE GOOD passes all the above trends
* He does have 11st 3lbs though which is a worry
* 8 of the last 10 winners had 10st 6lbs or less
* I can overlook that given his price

* IKORODU ROAD sails through the above trends

Selection

Covering a few to small stakes with Ikorodu staked to
just return stakes on the other two if it wins

MOSTLY BOB 25/1 Win Bet  ( a bit higher available on Betfair )
BENNY BE GOOD 25/1 Win Bet  ( 36/1 Betfair )
IKORODU ROAD 12/1 Saver  ( 16/1 Betfair )

grabbing a place at 20/1 early advised price.

Today is of course Grand National Day.

It’s that annoying day when Friends and Family all hassle me to give

them a good Grand National Tip.

Can’t they pick an easier race with less runners?

Here are my thoughts however.

It is not a race I will be staking with serious cash personally.

More so following the house wives out there with a small interest bet.

John Smith’s Grand National Chase

(Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (6yo+) 4m4f

For live market odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-04-14/aintree/16-15/betting/

The Grand National changes every year as do the statistics bit by bit to
accomodate the recent history. This year the Fences are again different.
Some are slightly lower and landings raised in places as it slowly
becomes an easier race. That doesnt help us as the more testing
and unique the race the better stats work.

* I think we should mainly ignore the weight statistics
* The 2010 winner won with 11st 5lbs
* Horses with 11st 6lbs have struggled overall
* Only Red Rum had won with more weight in recent years
* I would not get too hung up with weight though
* Red Rum won with 11st 8lbs and again with 12st
* Corbiere won with 11st 4lbs and Grittar with 11st 5lbs
* L’Escargot won with 11st 3lbs and Gay Trip with 11st 5lbs
* Horses with 11st 5lbs or more won in 1965 1957 1954 1950
* I wont be ruling any horse out only on their weight

* It is a well known fact 7 year olds do badly
* It is now 72 years since one won and they are hard to bet
* ORGANISEDCONFUSION has to go as a 7 year old
* He is not 7 year as he doesnt become 7 until next month
* With just 3 runs this year it defies sense to bet him
* I am opposing these other 7 year olds
* VIKING BLOND – OUR ISLAND  – THARAWAAT
* On the other end of the scale avoid teenagers
* HELLO BUD is surely too old as a 14yo

* Horses aged 8 do not do as well as many think
* Only 3 of the last 36 winners were 8 year olds
* Only 1 of the last 18 winners were 8 year olds
* If betting an 8yo make sure it is at least an 8yo
* If Foaled after the day of this race they are not
* Those foaled in Mid april and beyond are not yet 8
* Bindaree – Party Politics – Corbiere -the last 8yo winners
* They were all foaled early in the year
* They were all aged 8 and a few months
* Red Rum also won aged 8 and he was a January Foal
* Horses foaled after the day of the race are not 8
* They are just 7 and a few months old
* ON HIS OWN wasnt foaled until mid July
* That makes him only 7 and three quarters
* He is 6 months younger than most 8yo winners were
* He also has less Chasing experience than any winner
* QUISCOVER FONTAINE is 2 months short of being 8
* SHAKALAAAAKABOOMBOOM is a May 28th foal
* He wont be an 8yo for another 6 weeks
* He is short on Chasing experience and runs this year
* ALFA BEAT is not quite 8 years old yet
* TATENEN is one week short of his 8th birthday
* SMOKING ACES is also short of his 8th birthday

* Exposed horses struggle with few runs that season
* By exposed I mean those with 21 + National Hunt runs
* Those with 1-2-3 runs that season struggled
* They do in all Long distance Handicap Chases in April
* They have a dreadful record in all similar races
* Grey Abbey (Ayr 2004) had 36 runs and 3 that year
* Ballabriggs (Aintree 2011) had 21 runs and 3 that year
* I cant find any more exposed horses so underraced
* The more runs a horse has over 21
* The more runs he needs that season
* Be prepare to be lenient if a horse is close to passing it

* The last 24 winners had the following runs that season
* 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 3 5 4 6 7 6
* You can see None have won with 0-1-2 runs that year
* It is 4m 4f and these types just dont seem fit enough
* I would be keen to opposed all horses with 1-2 runs

* STATE OF PLAY is 12 and hasnt run in 371 days
* He heads my list of horses that are underraced this year
* BALLABRIGGS only has 1 run this season
* With 11st 9lbs it looks a horrendous ordeal for him
* BLACK APALACHI is 13 and has just 1 run this year
* Only 2 Teenagers have won and none since 1923
* None have placed since 1969 and he surely wont win
* DEEP PURPLE has one full race and half a race
* He has under 2 runs this year when an exposed 11yo
* I see him a extremely underraced this season
* JUNIOR has ran just twice this season not a good sign
* He has had fewer chase starts than all past winners
* I see him underraced this year and unsafe
* He started racing on the Flat and few National winners do
* His Sire hasnt bred a winner beyond 3m 2f yet
* PLANET OF SOUND has just 2 runs this season
* He is an exposed 10yo and I would want more runs
* WEST END ROCKER – He has only had 2 runs this year
* One of those was when he pulled up
* ARBOR SUPREME has similar problems
* Just 2 runs this year and a massive absence
* He has a longer absence than any winner in decades
* ON HIS OWN discussed earlier is also underraced
* IN COMPLIANCE is underraced this season
* MIDNIGHT HAZE is also underraced

* It is very important to have a recent race
* The past 20 winners all ran within 7 weeks
* In fact every winner since 1981 ran within 50 days
* The last that did not was Aldaniti back in 1981
* I don’t want a horse absent much more than 60 days
* The last 21 winners were absent this many days
* 35 23 21 41 32 27 48 28 20 25
* 42 20 24 35 23 16 35 23 35 23 25

* Look at the absences of the Runner Ups
* Horses 2nd in the National had these absence
* 45 49 25 27 21 22 22 100 35 23
* 63 345 28 16 44 18 42 21 23 23 102
* 17 of the past 21 Runners Ups also ran within 7 weeks

* I think STATE OF PLAY is absent too long
* WEST END ROCKER – ARBOR SUPREME are as well
* The following are absent longer than ideal
* CALGARY BAY has been absent 77 days
* CALGARY BAY doesnt appeal much
* Not keen on his Track form either
* ON HIS OWN has been absent 79 days
* ANY CURRENCY has been absent 77 days

* Class is important in a National Winner
* 10 of the last 11 winners won in Listed Grade or higher
* The exception was Ballabriggs (2011)
* He won in Class 2 races but hadnt been tested in higher
* I’d argue he should be seen as a Graded winer
* He won the 2010 Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival
* It was a Class 2 handicap but he did that with Topweight
* That was more than worthy or a Listed or Graded win
* 20 of the last 21 winners raced in Graded Class before
* The exception was again Ballabriggs (2011)
* The vast majority of the seconds also had Graded Form
* The ones that did not were mainly lightly raced
* Exposed horses should really have past Graded Form
* Ballabriggs wouldnt have been exposed with just 1 less run
* One past race he didnt jump past the first fence
* He had really only had 20 career starts
* I would much prefer a horse with Graded Class form

* I’d argue the following horses lack the required class
* POSTMASTER – MIDNIGHT HAZE -  SMOKIN ACES

* Chasing Experience is of obvious importance
* The previous 21 winners had the following Chase runs
* 12 12 24 14 13 10 11 37 41 14
* 12 24 17 25 10 23 16 9 14 28 14
* Least Experienced Chaser was Miinnehoma in 1994
* He had 9 Chase runs and two more had 10 Chase starts
* Horses with Under 9 Chase runs are unlike any past winner
* I looked at the Chase runs of the last 20 Runner Ups
* 10 24 18 11 13 15 23 14 20
* 10 11 9 19 14 9 8 24 32 22 8
* I’d be wary of any horses with under 10 Chase starts
* 8 of the last 11 winners had just 10-15 previous Chase starts

* I’d argue the following horses lack the right chase form
* CAPPA BLUE only has 6 Chase runs and fell in one of those
* That’s at least 3 less than every past winner
* JUNIOR has fewer chase starts than any recent winner
* SYNCHRONISED would be the joint least experienced chaser
* SHAKALAAAAKABOOMBOOM also has the minimum
* PEARLYSTEPS would be the joint least experienced chaser
* QUISCOVER FONTAINE only has 7 Chase starts
* OUR ISLAND only has 7 Chase starts
* VIKING BLOND only has 5 Chase runs

* The following horses look to be too riSky
* NEPTUNE EQUESTER – Lacks the class and stamina
* ABBEYBRANEY looks out of his depth
* VIC VENTURI wont defy 62 days off as a 12yo
* SWING BILL wont get the trip
* MON MOME – I find it so hard to fancy him
* He is 12 and hasnt shown nearly enough this year
* WEIRD AL – If he ran his race he’d go close
* He surely is not man enough for this race
* SEABASS has a very unorthodox profile
* I hate the fact he comes from a 2m Chase
* Stamina must be a problem for him as well
* He hasnt won over 3m before under rules
* His Sire hasnt had a winner beyond 3m 4f yet
* His sires record in Class 2 and higher is telling
* He hasnt had a winner in that class beyond 3m 2f
* Ruby Walsh has also turned the ride down
* SEABASS does not look safe enough

* TREACLE is an exposed 11yo
* Two of the last 19 winners could say the same
* Passes most angles he has to be  considered
* What worries me most is his 146 handicap mark
* Seems harsh for a horse thats won only off 122 before
* Not overkeen on his 62 day absence either
* Thats longer than any winner since 1991
* Not sure he has the class to defy that absence and rating

* There were 5 winners coming from Cheltenham
* Miinnehoma 1994 came from the Gold Cup
* Rough Quest 1996 came from the Gold Cup
* Bindaree 2002 came from the Trophy Handicap (6th)
* Silver Birch 2007 came from the Cross Country race
* Don’t Push it 2010 came from the Pertemps H’Cap Hurdle
* No winners came from Cheltenham Aged 9

* SUNNYHILLBOY – Not convinced he is the right type
* We know no 9yo came from Cheltenham and won this
* No Cheltenham Festival winners have won here in decades
* None have got within 28 lengths of the winner
* SUNNYHILLBOY is also a small horse not ideal here
* Do we really want a Cheltenham festival winner ?

* BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE ran at Cheltenham
* He ran well and was a good 2nd in the Kim Muir
* No 9 year olds won coming from Cheltenham
* It worries me has had won just 1 Chase race
* That was in a Beginners Chase back in 2010
* The last 19 winners had 3-7 Chase wins before
* He fell at the second fence in last years race
* He has now fallen in 3 of his 11 Chase races
* The last 12 winners all had a better completion record
* He hasnt won at 3 Miles yet but that doesnt worry me
* Overall I feel he has too many weaknesses

* NEPTUNE COLLONGES is an exposed 11yo
* I’d like a couple more runs this year
* I wasnt convinced he would get the trip either
* Not sure he has the legs especially with 11st 6lbs

* RARE BOB – Has a good old fashioned profile
* I wouldnt fault him at all statistically
* His jumping here would be one concern
* The only time he fell before was at Aintree
* His only other race here was not without mistakes
* He will be vulnerable to improvers as well

* His profile demands he is respected
* My concerns is he may be too old fashioned
* Horses like him dont seem to win the race these days
* There must also be a stamina doubt
* The furthest he has raced has been 3m 5f
* After that race his trainer said he didnt stay

* THE MIDNIGHT CLUB was favourite last year
* He had an awful profile so did well to finish 6th
* THE MIDNIGHT CLUB is 11 years old
* He was brought down at the 4th on his seasonal debut
* He has really only had 3 full runs this season
* Thats a bit short for an 11yo and it worries me
* He fails a few minor statistics I have
* The last 19 winners all had more Chase wins than him
* They also all had more Handicap Chase experience too
* I Could turn a blind eye to those statistics
* He has won 5 times under rules all on right handed tracks

* Fair to say his hardest races were on left handed tracks
* Its another niggling doubt though
* Interesting runner and if he wins it is explainable
* I’d have prefered another run this year and more promise

* SYNCHRONISED has just won the Gold Cup
* This will take a better performance should he win
* His last run may have taken too much from him
* Horses aged 9 like him coming from Cheltenham struggled
* He has to carry a big weight with only 9 Chase starts
* If winning he would be the joint least experienced chaser
* SYNCHRONISED – I suspect he has too much against him
* I certainly wouldnt make him a negative
* The weight in the ground after a hard race is a worry
* There is a big case for him being a Saver in my view

* GILES CROSS – I see him as an overall positive
* The ground has come right and he looks an improver
* There are a few reservations I have about him
* I would like another run or two this year

* I wouldnt be certain he would get the trip either
* The last half mile could be quite a test for him
* Will he cope with the stamina doubt and 3 runs this year
* Those 3 runs were all hard races as well
* No surprise if he won but I am not sold on him

* CAPPA BLUE – has some minor issues but one serious flaw
* The least experienced chaser had ran in 9 previous chases
* CAPPA BLUE has just 6 and Fell -Pulled up in 2 of those
* That said Mely Moss was 2nd in 2000 with 5 Chase starts
* Lord Atterbury was 3rd in 2004 with 4 Chase starts
* CAPPA BLUE has to be considered because of that

* CHICAGO GREY – Plenty of positives in his profile
* Well raced this year and ticks a lot of boxes
* I dont like the fact he comes from a 2m 4f Chase
* The record of horses from 2m 4f or shorter is not good
* I dont like the fact he comes from a Grade 2 Chase either
* Other than that there is a lot to like
* His trainer has a National Pedigree
* CHICAGO GREY also looks laid out for the race
* He certainly has the class and he is a big positive
* Reservations though in a number of areas
* He is lacking the Handicap Chase experience too

* KILLYGLEN – Has a good old fashioned profile
* I wouldnt fault him at all statistically
* Maybe the type that used to win this race but no more
* It bothers me has finished in only 9 of his 14 chase starts
* It bothers me his form at 3m 3f and more is PU PU PU
* It bothers me he was 66/1 in last years race
* He hasnt always been happy in a big field as well
* Bothers me he hasnt won a handicap chase before
* All that aisde he sails through my angles
* Many trends observers have also come round to him
* Shortlisted but I have listed plenty of shortcomings

* ACCORDING TO PETE is an exposed 11yo
* Well raced this year there is a lot to like
* He is consistent and not badly treated at all
* He has never fallen in 14 Chase starts
* There are some problems. May like it softer
* He is not a big horse either and I dont like that
* He jumps well though and I see a strong runner here

* ALWAYS RIGHT has 11 runs all over fences
* This is quite a classy horse with tons of ability
* Obviously his PU PU form recent isnt easy on the eye
* He has had a wind operation to cure a problem causing it
* That may or may not work but the price compensates
* He is lightly raced yet has more than enough Chase runs
* That earns him a lot of respect
* At the prices he is one of the most interesting

****************************************************
****************************************************

My Grand National Tips

From the above I have opted to cover a few horses to small stakes

I have assumed a £10 total stake

* CHICAGO GREY 25/1 £4 Win

* CAPPA BLEU £3 Win 18/1

* ALWAYS RIGHT £1.50 win 40/1

* ACCORDING TO PETE £1.50 win 40/1

* I am betting 4 horses in the race

* These are all win bets

* All advised at Betfair prices which of course may fluctuate a bit.

( if you want to bet on the nose in large runner field Betfair is normally
the best spot )

If you prefer to bet each way you can see live odds at

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-04-14/aintree/16-15/betting/

It is worth noting different bookmakers paying out for different numbers of
places.

victor chandler are the pick as they pay out 6 places

Good luck whether you follow me or use your magic pin to pick your own

Best Wishes

Guy

PS In case you missed it we have a short term cheap deal on full membership
running.

Page will come down after the weekend.

See http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/aintree-festival-racing-offer.asp

.

Next week will be a huge week. There is a Bank Holiday.
Some very big trend races. There is a Grand National.
I will be stronger at Aintree this year than ever before
witha  huge ammount of pre research already done.

T o d a y ‘s  O p t i o n s

I could have had some shorter priced bets but I didnt want
that. Equally some of my bigger priced options overreach
a little and I am resigned to having a very quiet Saturday
knowing full well we will fire up dramatically next week.
Being a Saturday I will highlight one bet. I’ve a negative
in the 4.05pm and the two obvious alternatives are short
of what I want. There are two very big prices in the race.

Haydock 4.05

VINTAGE STAR 16/1 Each Way

DIZZY RIVER  16/1 Each Way

You can get 18/1 and 20/1 in the offices and both will
be bigger on Betfair. I you bet both each way we have
only got to get one placed to break level and I feel we
could do better than that. Novice Handicaps are quite
complicated but my angles offer encouragement and I
think on a dangerous Saturday we should keep it tight
and wait for Grand National week where tracks suit me.

S t r o n g e s t   S t a t i s t i c   T o d a y

H a y d o c k   4.05

* This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f
* In Thursdays message I gave a good Stat in a similar race
* I want to give another interesting statistic here
* It involves FOURTH ESTATE who fails my angles

* Novice Handicap Hurdles in March and April
* Between 2m 3f – 2m 4f – 2m 5f
* Horses from Novice or Maiden Hurdles over 2m 2f or less
* I found the odd winner with many years ago
* None were like FOURTH ESTATE though
* Those that won last time out were 0-38
* That strikes me as quite a telling statictic
* The record of these horses since 1998 was poor
* None of them had just 1-2 runs that year like him
* FOURTH ESTATE has a weak profile in my view

* This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f
* In Thursdays message I gave a good Stat in a similar race
* I want to give another interesting statistic here
* It involves FOURTH ESTATE who fails some angles

* Novice Handicap Hurdles in March and April
* Between 2m 3f – 2m 4f – 2m 5f
* Horses coming from Novice or Maiden Hurdles
* Horses coming up in trip from 2m 2f or less
* I found the odd winner with many years ago
* None were like FOURTH ESTATE though
* Those that won last time out were 0-38
* That strikes me as quite a telling statictic
* The record of these horses since 1998 was poor
* None of them had just 1-2 runs that year like him
* FOURTH ESTATE has a weak profile in my view

I think the race is set up for an each way alternative.
I do not want CHADFORD from a 4yo race. KINGS LODGE
and EYRE APPARENT didnt run well enough last time.

* SYDNEY PAGET – 5yo from a novice hurdle
* He has an absence of over 7 weeks
* I found a 2-54 record from these types
* None like SYDNEY PAGET won last time out
* None carried more than 10st 9lbs and he has 11st 10lbs
* SYDNEY PAGET feels unsafe to me
* PINEROLO – Overall positive but not brilliant
* VINTAGE STAR – Hard to read but overall positive
* DIZZY RIVER – Shortlistable and not a bad price
* PERSIAN SNOW – I’d prefer more runs this season
* I found a 7yo winner like him but not 6yo
* GRANDADS HORSE – Comes out as a potential e/w bet
* GRANDADS HORSE – Weight could be his biggest flaw
* All the similar winners had marginally lighter weights

Selection

Split Stake Bet

* VINTAGE STAR 20/1 Each Way s james
* DIZZY RIVER  20/1 Each Way  s james

* Only 1 needs to place to return stakes
* Every £10 bet means £2.50 each way on both horses

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I am realistic and resigned to the fact that today
may well result in a loser and probably will.

The main focus is Doncaster today. It is always a tough
card but we know what we are getting.

Given the type of race I am betting in I will be delighted to
get anything out of it. REVE DE NUIT may
be underpriced here as a fit horse thats well treated so
I want to bet him but there is a doubt about the trip.

The Spring Mile – Doncaster  2.05

* The Spring Mile is a Class 2 Handicap over 8f
* Its a Consolation race for horses not in the Lincoln
* I have looked at the 19 Spring Mile races

* I have to first try and predict the draw bias
* Doncaster have had 14 similar races since 2006
* Thats 14 Handicaps with 17 or more ruinners
* The winners came from the following stalls
* 11 16 16 1 19 20 9 9 18 12 12 17 16 10
* 13 of the 14 races went to horses drawn 9 +
* Those drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 were just 1-109
* That was 2010 Lincoln winner Penitent on soft ground
* This evidence suggests low numbers are vulnerable

* I want to try and narrow this down statistically
* Horses aged 7 or more have a 0-72 record
* Horses that dropped in trip from 9f and longer were 0-96
* There were 5 winners that had ran this year
* None had 4 or more runs since January 1st
* I’d avoid exposed horses with 1 run this season
* Horses from 3yo handicaps need under 9 runs
* There were 3 past winners from 7f or shorter
* None were aged 6 or more
* REDVERS falls a bit short and I hate his draw
* He has also downgraded stables since his last run
* PRINCE OF BURMA is the wrong type
* SHAMDARLEY – A bit exposed from a 3yo handicap
* I’d have liked fewer runs for a 4yo doing this
* SHAMDARLEY has a few too many runs
* I looked at 4yo seasonal debutants from 7f
* Several run with under 6 runs those with more are 0-65
* WEAPON OF CHOICE fails that
* CAPTAIN BERTIE fails that with 10 runs
* LEVIATHAN has flaws down from 10f
* SNOW BAY – Will probably need the run
* He has a career high mark as well
* Most of his form is on sharp tracks as well
* SNOW BAY wouldnt interest me
* I looked at 4 year olds that ran within 2 weeks
* Those with 9 or more runs were 0-57
* KINGSCROFT fails that with 27 races
* ARABIAN SPIRIT – Didnt do enough last time
* KAY GEE BE is a seasonal debutant aged 8
* Very few winners his aged managed to do that
* The only ones that did had Group form before
* KAY GEE BE doesnt and I see him as unsafe
* He also has a career high mark first time out aged 8
* PERFECT CRACKER is 4 and up in distance
* That wont be easy with a 92 day break
* I dont think he has the backclass to overcome that
* MONT RAS  has been the big ante post gamble
* He was 16/1 a few days ago and has been backed in
* MONT RAS is 5 and has 7 runs
* Last years winner Eton Forever had the same profile
* Both are seasonal debutants as well
* That shortlists him but he only has Class 3 backclass
* Eton Forever had Group class form before winning last year
* MONT RAS lack of backclass troubles me most

SHORTLIST

* FIRST POST – Has enough to shortlist
* He is up in class and I’d rather he wasnt
* I also wonder if his draw is a bit too high
* CROWN COUNSEL – I dont mind his profile
* REVE DE NUIT – I like his profile well raced this year
* He is badly handicapped on sand and has had recent excuses
* His Turf mark is much better
* I would like more turf form at 8f but he is a positive

Selection

REVE DE NUIT at 14/1 could be interesting. He has had
3 runs this Callender year 2 of which were in the last three weeks
and a 7 day absence looks very helpfull.
He must be one of the fittest horses here.
The dilemma is whether he is better on sand and whether he needs further.
I think he is a good risk for the following reasons.

* His rating on Grass is 11lbs lower than on Sand
* He has won a better race than this on Grass of this mark
* In terms of the trip it is a slight worry
* Last time out though he placed at a Mile at Lingfield
* That was a better class race than this was
* Lingfield is a very easy Mile and this is much stiffer
* With a long straight it will give him time to finish
* If he can place there with a fitness edge he can here
* His jockey is an interesting booking as well
* REVE DE NUIT 14/1 looks the best option

14/1  in multiple spots including s james Paddy Power Ladbrokes Coral

Same odds at bet365 but they have the extra perk of paying out 5 places so go there and each way if they still let you get a bet on with them.

———————————-

PS   I have further  full bets for full members today in the 6.05

So plenty of time to get them and get on if you wish to join up as a client proper.

See Here For More info ==> Betting Advice

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9/4 Kingscroft, 11/4 George Guru, 6/1 Axiom
7/1 Dubai Dynamo, 10/1 Hung Parliament,Titan Triumph
14/1 Reve De Nuit, 16/1 Final Drive.

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over a mile
* Not many similar races so hard to match horses
* HUNG PARLIAMENT – 4yo seasonal debutants struggle
* None had under 13 career starts as he does
* AXIOM – No seasonal debutants won aged 7 or older
* TITAN TRIUMPH won a 7f handicap last time
* No horse as old as him won again at a mile
* Coming up in class he has a lot to prove
* DUBAI DYNAMO doesnt appeal from a 6f race
* Not as a 7yo with just 1 run since last October
* REVE DE NUIT – Just falls short and looks badly handicapped
* FINAL DRIVE -Doesnt look well treated at the moment
* I think he may need another run this year
* KINGSCROFT is an exposed 4 year old
* Similar types from 8f handicaps were 0-4
* Career high mark and unsafe profile but respected
* GEORGE GURU – Unorthodox as lightly raced 5yo
* Acceptable profile and well raced this season
* He should have a fitness edge over most of these

Selection – GEORGE GURU

Prices are coming in a  touch since this was advised to full members earlier

13/8  available at PaddyPower-  BoyleSports – s james – VC

The Year takes a very
sharp turn now Cheltenham has gone. We are heading
towards the flat season and finally some serious racing
with one eye on the Grand National meeting. This year
I will provide extensive statistics in all races at Aintree.
I have never done that before as I haven’t had the time
in the past because the start of the flat took over.
I’m going to put enough time aside this year and sort it out.
At some stage I have to move house as well.
It’ll have to be a very well planned next few weeks.
The carnival is over and we an regroup on Monday or
Tuesday and getback to some normality as the flat racing is coming.

A very nice end to the festival with the only bet on the
day SYNCHRONISED winning the Gold Cup at a decent
price. He turned the festival from a reasonable one to a
very good one. I was right to keep the bets down with a
lot of unsortable races yesterday. In the extra analysis section
Salsify won for us and we had a good 16/1 each way place in the
Grand Annual so the bottom of the message more than paid it’s way but it was really about SYNCHRONISED available at 9/1 and 10/1 and a
truly brilliant ride from Tony McCoy. There are plenty
of ups and downs in this game but betting a winners of a
top class race at good odds is as good as it gets and that
put the seal on a really good Cheltenham Festival for us

Feedback from new members over Cheltenham has been very positive.

Not surprising as they made some significant profit.
My quick back of envelope calc is that we had firm bets in 12 Cheltenham races.
£50 total staked per race would have made a net profit in the region of £650 to £700

The deal page we will leave up till Monday morning.
It’s a a very good offer adn a great opportunity for anyone interested to test the
beauty of the full service proper with their own eyes.

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

Back next week however fingers crossed with the usual Saturday Free Blog Tip.

betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)  3m2f110y

7/4 Long Run, 7/2 Kauto Star, 15/2 Burton Port
11/1 Synchronised, 12/1 Midnight Chase, 12/1 Weird Al
20/1 What A Friend, 33/1 Diamond Harry
40/1 Time For Rupert, 50/1 China Rock, 66/1 Carruthers
66/1 The Giant Bolster, 100/1 Knockara Beau
100/1 The Midnight Club.

The Gold Cup is always fascinating and is again this year
as well. You will no doubt have your own views about it
and may already be involved. I am going to see where a
few of my statistics lead me. It was 1969 before we last
had a winner aged 11 or more and for all his brilliance I
do oppose KAUTO STAR as a 12 year old. I dont think
its relevant what he has done at Kempton or Haydock
this season. Judge him on Gold Cup form and he failed
in 2011 and 2010 and never looked like winning either
of the last two renewals. I think something should beat
him. I would also go as far as saying he might not place
either. DIAMOND HARRY isn’t safe enough and dont
think he’s about to win a Gold Cup on this course. I’m
against BURTON POINT with just one run so far this
season. Every past winners had more. There must be a
chance he will bounce after his Newbury run and I feel
he is too riSky. He’s also a small horse that wont enjoy
this race of it gets rough in any way. I couldnt be with
him having just that one race. MIDNIGHT CHASE is
now an exposed 10 year old and whilst not a negative
horses his age have struggled recently. He doesn’t have
the right exposure and is rated a bit lower than is ideal.

P o s s i b l e s

WEIRD AL

WEIRD AL pulled up in last years race but He has been
quietly shortening in the betting this year and now 12/1
a much shorter price than you may expect. He is hard
to read. I can argue he’s lower than the minimum rating
I think you want. I can argue he did not quite do enough
on his last start but there is nothing statistically wrong
with his chance other than minor infringments. I also
think its quite interesting he has upgraded stables since
last year. He had a larynx problem that required surgery
after the Hennessy in 2001 and Bled in last years Gold
Cup. He is now with Donald McCain who has not raced
him since November. This horse is Best Fresh. The big
doubt is whether he is Man enough for the race. He was
a Boy last year. A Sickly child needing operations and
having physical problems. He was asked to do a bit too
much and wasn’t finishing races and getting distressed.

He was out of his depth and couldn’t cope. Now he has
a new trainer another year on his back and has shown
he isn’t far away from his best. Has that extra year or
new stable made him a Man Has he gone through the
process of Boy to Man or is he still weak and waiting
to crumble once tested to the maximum stress of any
Gold Cup. I dont know but he’s one of those that may
win or finish last and may be a win bet and a place lay.

S h o r t l i s t

LONG RUN

* LONG RUN – Statistically there are no problems
* Like many I haven’t been impressed with him this year
* My own view is winning this aged 6 knocked him back
* He is shortlistable and probably around the right price
* He will have to run and jump his best this year to win

WHAT A FRIEND

* Statistically I pass him as fine
* He fails 3 stats but only by the width of an Atom
* I want a 166 rating and he is 165
* I want a 1st or 2nd last time and he was 3rd
* I want a win within 6 runs and his came 7 runs ago
* I can ignore All that especially as he is 25/1 +
* I think this horse has been unfairly pidgeon holed
* He gets a lot of criticism as being ungenuine
* Many dont realise what he was up against
* I want to put the case for the defence
* WHAT A FRIEND won his first 2 chases in 2009
* Nothing wrong at all with that
* He was then hammered in the Sun Alliance
* When he flopped in the Sun Alliance I expected it
* Big negative that day with only 2 Chase starts
* We opposed him and he had the wrong preparation
* He won next time at Stratford
* First time out 2009-2010 he was 2nd in the Hennessy
* Second in Denmans Hennessy was a creditable effort
* WHAT A FRIEND won a Grade 1 next time
* He then went and won another Grade 1 after that
* He was beaten then at Haydock in November 2010
* That was first time out so hardly worth damming him
* He was odds on in the 2001 Aon Chase
* People criticised him but he did come second
* That day he had just 1 run that year and a long break
* I had him as a negative in that race and not safe
* His 2011 Gold Cup run was very good
* He was only beaten 11 lengths by Long run
* Ignore his run in the 2011 Grand National
* He didnt stay and he was technically still a 7yo
* None have won in decades and that was no shame
* This year he had a reasonable prep race at Newbury
* That will set him up with a chance in this race
* Whenever this horse has lost he has been criticised
* Almost every time he has there was a genuine excuse.
* WHAT A FRIEND should be half his price

SYNCHRONISED

I said in the January 21st message that my early choice
for the Gold Cup was SYNCHRONISED and nothing has
changed my mind. I see Pricewise have tipped him so it
may be a point shorter than expected but this horse has
a massive chance. His 2011 Welsh National win was so
impressive statistically he looked at Gold Cup horse at
that point. His Lexus chase win may have been a slow
time but thast wasn’t his fault as he oozed class. I have
never felt he was ground dependant and its clear he has
been trained like a Gold Cup winner and not overfaced
in unneccesary races and I get the impression his yard
have known for a while he could be up to this class.

SELECTION

LONG RUN 2/1
WHAT A FRIEND 25/1
SYNCHRONISED  10/1

I think one of these will win. LONG RUN is clearly the
most likely winner but he’s short and with 3 shortlisted
staking becomes a problem. There is a market which is
“without the two favourites” Long Run and Kauto Star
and I was tempted by WHAT A FRIEND each way in
that market around 10/1. Thats tempting and I have a
small bet on that myself but for several weeks now I’ve
been very keen on SYNCHRONISED and he is my bet.

SYNCHRONISED 10/1

Nb blog comment:  10/1 now gone but was about earlier when full members got this.

9/1 available at Ladbrokes – s james – bet365

PS Chelt Deal offer available for the rest of this week

see http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp

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