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Nice 7/1 main bet winner with North Central as it happens.

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Mathematician 1401

One Bet Today

Hereford 2.00 – STEVIE THUNDER 11/8
Lingfield 4.20 –  NORTH CENTRAL 7/1

Win Bet on Both Horses
Each Way Double on Both

I am limiting the analysis today. Three days into the week and already had 21 previews done and I want to back off before the weekend. I found myself drifting into other areas yesterday like the JNWine Champion Chase on Saturday in Ireland. I like the chance to throw in a short message and get a chance to look at different things. To my amazement I find two Lingfield races that look worth spending time over. Its Kempton that offers me little today so I am swerving the night meeting. I have 2 races
at Hereford I like. That makes 4 previews today but I like them all. The Options are below and I have chosen one bet from them.

Todays Options

Hereford 2.00 – STEVIE THUNDER 11/8 Win Bet

Lingfield 3.20 – ALBAMARA – Win Bet 7/1
Lingfield 3.20 – ANISEED – Win Bet 16/1

Hereford 3.30 – COLD KNIGHT 5/1  Each Way

Lingfield 4.20 –  NORTH CENTRAL 7/1 Win Bet

In the end I decided to have a Win Bet on both Stevie Thunder and North Central and an each way double. Cold Knight was a very interesting option but I have to rely on him being ready to win and being Fit. The Split Stake bet  Albamara and Aniseed are in a hard race and I felt a touch too risky for comfort. I am  keen on Stevie Thunder and although the win part of the bet is hardly lucrative the 4 places for a place is a huge help and he is connected with North Central in a race full of negatives.

M e s s a g e   C h a n g e s

In the next couple of weeks I am going to Manipulate some of the changes I want to see in the messages starting from today.

* Selections and Mentions are now Dropped
* Each Day I am picking at least one Bet from my options
* I will go into more details later on
* There is a New Message Time 11.15am

W e d n e s d a y ‘s   R e v i e w

The three bets I highlighted yesterday returned a loser and two placed bets each way. A Small loss but not too unhappy with it  given I wasn’t certain about much of it. Edgware Road lost by a short head photo with the saver in 3rd so another inch and we’d have won good money and he did nothing wrong at all and that wasn’t too bad a start. Highlife Dancer got beaten and ran badly and that just left Aussie Reigns to nick us a bit of place money
and the overall position was managable if a bit behind but there was the potential for losing a lot more so overall I’m fine with it.

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P R O F I L E S  @  P R E V I E W S

H e r e f o r d  2.00

3/1 Stevie Thunder, 8/1 Tresor De Bontee, 9/1 Nicky Nutjob
10/1 Phoenix Eye, 10/1 Share Option, 12/1 Goat Castle, 12/1 Missionaire 16/1 Al Amaan, 16/1 Aureate, 16/1 Bobby Dove, 16/1 Gizzit, 16/1 Naledi 16/1 Scotsbrook Legend, 20/1 Aughcarra, 20/1 Final Flyer 20/1 Hadron Collider, 20/1 Holden Caulfield, 20/1 Prince Freddie.

This is a 17f Handicap Hurdle. Obviously there are too many runners to be confident – but I did like STEVIE THUNDER the favourite. He is rated 90 on the Flat and that makes him thrown in over hurdles even if you allow for the fact he is knocking on a bit and has his quirks. It
is only a 0-97 contest and off topweight he looks very well placed to win. He was well backed on his returns to hurdles last time out at Ludlow and some were dissapointed he was only second. That does not worry me. He was probably in need of the run and experience as well. He ran into an improving 4 year old as well and that race was a
lot better than this. It was a higher class and contained 9 horses in the race that would not even be allowed to race in this low a grade. Some will say he’s bad value at 13/8 but not sure thats true. He has a very strong chance and looks an ideal each way double bet given there are 4 places available and I think STEVIE THUNDER will win.

Selection

#10 Win STEVIE THUNDER 11/8

L i n g f i e l d  3.20

9/4 Surprise Moment, 9/2 Albamara, 11/2 Rumh, 6/1 Polygon
10/1 Momentary, 10/1 Roxy Flyer, 12/1 Tempest Fugit
14/1 Good Morning Star, 16/1 Aniseed, 20/1 Western Pearl
25/1 Sunday Bess, 33/1 Jiwen, 50/1 Livia4s Dream, 50/1 Miss Starlight.

I know I said I should ignore Lingfield today and we should really but wanted to mention something about this Listed race for Fillies over 1m 5f. There is a short 6 year history but I see some patterns.

* Every Past winner had between 5-9 career starts
* Every one had form in Listed or Group Class before

I would really want to land on a horse with 5-9 runs. The favourite SURPRISE MOMENT has only had 3 runs two less than all other winners and She also has no form beyond a Class 3 grade before. She should improve may well win and I can’t be too dogmatic as  there are so few similar races to develop an idea of what wins but I don’t think SURPRISE MOMENT is safe here. She has just won a handicap where her highest rated opponent was rated 90. Today her rivals include horses rated 103 102 99 98 97 96 95 94 and it’s
these reasons I want to oppose her. Every past winner of this had 5-9 runs so enough experience to win without being overexposed so there is still improvement to come. I am going to avoid horses with a lot more. ROXY FLYER and RUMH have had far more runs than all six winners. So has badly drawn GOOD MORNING STAR. I feel WESTERN PEARL is too exposed especially for an absence. Having only 4 runs TEMPEST FUGIT is one run short and as none of the past winners dropped in trip I dont fancy her to have enough.

S h o r t l i s t

* MOMENTARY matches the above two stats
* I have reservations about her from a 9f race
* I also dont like the fact she has had headgear

* POLYGON also matches the two stats I like
* I do note she has a listed race penalty which is a worry
* No older horse managed that – and she did win last time
* None of the 6 winners were 1st 2nd or 3rd last time
* They were all 4th or worse last time out
* POLYGON is still a positive but not exactly safe for me
* ANISEED – She passes both my requirements
* ALBAMARA – I felt she had a good profile

Selection

ALBAMARA – Win Bet 7/1
ANISEED – Win Bet 16/1

H e r e f o r d   3.30

9/4 On The Bridge, 4/1 Gigondas, 13/2 Going Nowhere Fast
8/1 Cold Knight, 9/1 Koultas King, 10/1 Lucky Prince
12/1 Loughalder, 14/1 Get Home Now, 14/1 Midnight Dove

* This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f
* Not many can win this race
* ON THE BRIDGE is hard to read winning a handicap chase last time
* I cant find any horses trying to win these races like him
* Not keen myself he drops from Chases but I have to be open minded
* I am opposing him each way given his short price
* GIGONDAS doesnt interest me as a 3yo
* Horses aged 3 do win but so far havent at this trip
* All 24 lost but they have won over 3m and 2m trips
* I looked at 3 year olds at every distance
* Not many won that were beaten as far as he was last time out
* GIGONDAS isnt my first choice
* It was COLD KNIGHT that interested me the most

COLD KNIGHT

* Male horses aged 6
* Having between 7 and 8 National Hunt runs
* Absent more than 100 days
* Coming from a Handicap Hurdle over 18f or more
* No form beyond a Class 4 race
* Carrying 11st 3lbs or less
* Beaten last time out
* There were 5 horses with this profile
* These finished W W 5 W W
* COLD KNIGHT has this profile today

Selection

#5 Each Way COLD KNIGHT 5/1

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L i n g f i e l d  4.20

3/1 Rio Royale, 5/1 Jackie Love, 6/1 Darnathean, 7/1 North Central 15/2 Mary4s Pet, 8/1 Memphis Man, 10/1 Silvee, 12/1 Artful Lady 16/1 Bedibyes, 20/1 Delightful Sleep, 25/1 Lady On Top 25/1 Schoolboy Champ, 33/1 Give Us A Belle.

* This is a 7f Handicap for Apprentices
* I looked at all similar races in October and November
* I would demand a fit profile here especially as its for Apprentices
* RIO ROYALE doesnt have that and I am opposing him
* He won this last year but had a recent run and more runs this year
* RIO ROYALE is exposed and absent 49 days
* He has raced just once since May and just 5 times this season
* Last year he had 7 runs since May and a run 17 days before
* RIO ROYALE looks underraced to me and so are others
* SCHOOLBOY CHAMP hasnt had enough runs this year
* MARY4S PET is an exposed mare and absent over a month
* Shes raced just once in 83 days a big worry for an exposed mare
* She also has to come up in trip to a distance shes 0-8 at
* JACKIE LOVE is also an exposed mare
* Worries me she has 45 days off and comes up in distance
* Not a solid profile and shes never been out of Class 5 before
* JACKIE LOVE doesnt offer me enough
* LADY ON TOP is short of runs this season
* BEDIBYES smells underraced to me as a 4yo filly
* She has a months absence and one run in 83 days
* Her trainer has never had a flat winner before either
* DELIGHTFUL SLEEP is too inexperienced absent too long
* GIVE US A BELLE isnt running well enough
* ARTFUL LADY is hard to like as a 3yo fily from a 6f seller
* SILVEE – Not keen shes an exposed mare absent 50 days
* No exposed mares won absent that long
* Shes hardly rich in backclass either and drawn one
* MEMPHIS MAN is 9 and absent 49 days and that worries me
* I can find a 9yo win absent a month in one of these races
* That was First Maite (2002) who had a similar level of backclass
* MEMPHIS MAN is therefore respected and shortlisted
* However in the last 5 years he hasnt won after a break
* Since 2006 his wins came after 2 9 9 20 17 14 5 14 20 3 7 15 days
* MEMPHIS MAN has 29 more days off than his longest absent win

Possibles

* DARNATHEAN – Respected as a 3yo with a recent run
* I’d have liked a slightly better last run but he is respected

* NORTH CENTRAL – lots to like with a fit profile and recent run
* He was beaten a fair way just 6 days ago which is a concern
* There is an excuse as it looks like he didnt stay a mile
* Statistically there are exposed 5yo’s winning like him
* Those that had recent heavy defeats over a Mile
* Lordship – Lindas Colin – Elusive Warrior – Tanforan all did it since 2009
* Thats 4 examples that show his profile is fine
* NORTH CENTRAL was trapped from stall 1 last time at Wolves
* Not given a hard race at all once he was beaten
* NORTH CENTRAL is well handicapped and is the best risk here

Selection

#10 Win NORTH CENTRAL 7/1

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