Mathematician 565

No Account Bet

No Selections Today

I am having a blank day and letting you pick from
the message. Not ideal for a Saturday but there’s
not much choice and if I had to go with one bet it
would only be a contrived bet to fob you off rather
than a bet I strongly fancied and I’d probably have
had an each way double on Major Lawrence (12.55)
and Septemberintherain (1.05) and I dont want to
give you a bet I dont want myself so decided to be
patient and wait for Tomorrow. There will be a mail
on Sunday at Southwell so maybe that will be better.

Having a few bets myself today. I like the 12.55pm at
Kempton. I have backed MAJOR LAWRENCE at 5/2
and saved on Mutajaaser. I have played in the Match
Bet on Major Lawrence to beat Jan Mayen. My work
in the race forces me to play because of a negative.
It could well lead me to the wrong conclusion and I
have one bogey from Gary Moores that worries me.

I like SUPPORT FUND each way in the 2.25pm but I’d
rather have a recent run against two strong opponents
who have had one so I see him more of a personal bet
than a bet I’d want to suggest a large stake on.

I have had a nibble on MAGNITUDE (12.35 Lingfield)
but non runners had spoilt any each way options and
cut his price. He is now the outsider of six around 7/1
which isnt as good as the price he would have been
had the non runners taken part but he is an option.

No Bets Today. There will be more oppurtunity tomorrow.

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T O D A Y ‘S   R A C I N G

Not the best of Friday messages. Just the one
bet divided in two wins and a double but there
was nothing to show from that and I wasnt too
surprised we drew a blank as it looked a pretty
tough day and  beat me easily in the end.

Lingfield and Kempton today. I have decided
to make Lingfield the main meeting and give it
most attention. All the main previews are there
but just a few quick Kempton words first.

K  E  M  P  T  O  N

KEMPTON 12.55

Williamhill.com/bonus25 Maiden Stakes
(CLASS 5) (4yo+) 1m2f

11/4 Major Lawrence, 3/1 Freedom Fire, 3/1 Jan Mayen
4/1 Mutajaaser, 12/1 Boogie Dancer, 25/1 Gheed
33/1 Our Jane, 33/1 Sir Tom, 33/1 Whiterocks.

The Maiden interests me at 12.55. I am hoping that we
have a huge gamble on Mark Johnston’s JAN MAYEN
and she ends up a short price. That way there will be a
better price about something else. This is interesting

* January-Febuary-March there are 766 3yo + maidens
* Thats 766 Maidens at any distance during 3 months
* I looked at Unraced 4 year old Fillies
* In 766 races they have a 0-135 record

That makes me want to oppose JAN MAYEN but as is
often with a good stat the alternatives often bring there
own confusion. As an example FREEDOM FIRE has just
tailed off over hurdles and I wouldnt have a clue how it
will affect him. I certainly couldnt bet him. I dont like any of the outsiders either so it looks like I have two options.

MAJOR LAWRENCE
MUTAJAASER

MAJOR LAWRENCE is frustrating and has had problems
and is certainly unsafe but he does have the ability to win
and a visor and / or a small step up in trip could easily be the things he needs to win. He could also flatter to decieve again. The other option is MUTAJAASER. I am listening to my stats that tells me 5 year olds with 1-2 career runs are  0-33 but I’m ignoring it as only 9 started under 10/1 and six of these nine horses aged 5 finished 2nd or 3rd and that’s telling me has has chances. MUTAJAASER had excuses on his debut when playing up in the stalls and he didnt run badly last time when 5th in a maiden only caught late and just behind a horse called Levitation who then came out and beat MAJOR LAWRENCE easily so on that run you would give MUTAJAASER every chance. I think it is a race to bet both horses and I could go this way round.

Win Bet – MAJOR LAWRENCE 5/2
Saver Bet – MUTAJAASER  6/1

* Additional Suggestions
* I like MUTAJAASER in a match bet with Freedom Fire
* I like MAJOR LAWRENCE in a match bet with Jan Mayen

KEMPTON 2.25

9/4 Goodbye Cash, 5/2 Fly By Nelly, 5/1 Lucky Score,
5/1 Support Fund, 11/2 Chatanoogachoochoo,
20/1 Safaseef, 66/1 Sunshine Ellie, 100/1 Intimar.

In the 2.25pm Handicap I quite like SUPPORT FUND.
If 8 run each way but if less than 8 run a win bet. It’s
interesting that as a 66 rated horse he only has to beat
a 0-60 rated field and he has form in much better class
than that. You have two no hopers in INTIMAR and
SUNSHINE ELLIE. I see SAFASEEF as vulnerable and
outclassed up in trip. All horses from Maidens in these
races struggled. None came from 7f as LUCKY SCORE
or from 12f like CHATANOOGACHOOCHOO does and
I think the top 3 in he weights will dominate. If you look
at every fillies handicap between January and March at
any distance in any class and look at horses beaten 10
or more lengths in maidens you find a 0-49 record and
CHATANOOGACHOOCHOO has that to overcome.  I
like FLY BY NELLY but she has no backclass. I also like
GOODBYE CASH who has a good profile and is the right
favourite. I think SUPPORT FUND has much better form
behind her and although on turf I dont see why she cant
win here and in this class I think 5/1 is a good price.

The 2.55pm at Kempton is a 6f sprint. I would have gone
with TIDDLIWINKS with a recent win behind him but I
dont see him as a brilliant price and if I was betting in a
race like this I would have him in an Each Way Double
rather than a win bet and Septemberintherain (1.05pm)
at Lingfield looks the best horse to stick him with,

The only other race that interested me was the 3.55pm a
3yo handicap. I went through every runners and found
faults with all of them. None were ideal in profiles so with something having to win I have set the bar too high so I have to go with something with a visable flaw. I would
risk EXCEED POWER. She has been handicapped at 5f
and her trainer has stated she has never ran on the track
as well as she has worked. The 80 day absence could be
a blessing in disguise. If her problems have been sorted
and they have got to the bottom of her problems then it
is a ridiculously low handicap mark she has much as she
is no more than a guess in a race I liked nothing in.

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LINGFIELD 12.35

Bet All Weather Racing – Betdaq Classified
Claiming Stakes (CLASS 6) (4yo+ 0-70) 1m2f

100/30 Clear Sailing, 9/2 The Dial House, 5/1 Sir George,
13/2 Hold The Bucks, 13/2 Ladies Dancing, Magnitude.

* This is a Claimer over 10f
* There has been 89 similar races at this time of year

NEGATIVES

* HOLD THE BUCKS is exposed and absent 99 days
* That is too long and no horse like him overcame that
* HOLD THE BUCKS will also need the run
* His trainer states “He needs 2 runs to be straight”
* SIR GEORGE comes from a 7f race
* Those doing that with under 21 runs were 0-59
* Those doing that aged 4-5-6 were 0-57
* SIR GEORGE looks vulnerable to me failing both trends
* LADIES DANCING comes from a 3yo handicap
* None of the 89 winners did that

Posted under horse racing tips