ASCOT 4:50

Just a small Extract from our Saturday message from today.

Nb There is a proper account bet for full members of mathematician-betting.co.uk in the 3.35 at Haydock

ASCOT 4:50 – MILES & MORRISON OCTOBER STAKES (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 7f

7/2 Majestic Roi, 8/1 Crystany, Ethaara, Francesca D´Gorgio, Illusion, Salsa Steps, Spinning Lucy, 10/1 Meydan Princess, 12/1 Kylayne, Medicea Sidera,
25/1 Ghostmilk, Steam Cuisine, 33/1 Candle Sahara, Monaazalah, Vital Statistics, 66/1 Indian Diva.

* The October Stakes is a fillies Listed race over 7f
* There has only been 7 renewals of this race
* There has been 20 other Listed races for fillies at this time of year
* The 7 winners had 8-5-8-3-7-5-9 previous races
* It does look a race for lightly raced 3 year olds
* Horses with 10 + runs had a 0-47 record
* Horses aged 4 or more had a 0-27 record
* If you look at the 20 Listed races at this time of year
* Only 2 had as much as 13 or more career starts
* Horses aged 3 or 4 with 13 + runs were 0-39
* This leads me to take out all the exposed horses
* MAJESTIC ROI may be vulnerable aged 4 with 15 runs
* She is the best horse on ratings but she isn’t for me
* She is not typical of any previous winner of this race
* GHOSTMILK -KYLAYNE- MEDICEA SIDERA look exposed
* So to does STEAM CUISINE and VITAL STATISTICS
* I would take out the 4 year olds as they havent won this yet
* All winners of this race had at least 4 runs this season
* In 20 other races horses that had 1-2 runs that year struggled
* No horse managed it with 5 or more career runs (0-30)
* Francesca D´Gorgio fails that
* Horses that came from 7f races with 9 + runs were 0-41
* Spinning Lucy – Candle Sahara both fail that
* I think there are 4 runners with strong profiles
* ETHAARA – ILLUSION – MEYDAN PRINCESS – CRYSTANY
* I like ETHAARA – ILLUSION best of these
* ILLUSION has a very similar profile to 2006 winner Makderah
* She comes from the same race and was badly hampered in that race
* Her trainer has won this race before and at an estimated 14/1 she’s my choice

**blog comment: currently trading a  bit shorter than the Racing Post estimated 14/1.

13.5/1 Betfair being the best current price ***

Posted under horse racing tips

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