Close but no cigar last weekend with a 20/1 Sp 2nd place.

On to today

A s c o t 5.35

7/2 Overturn, 4/1 Simenon, 9/2 Zuider Zee, 10/1 Petara Bay
12/1 Swingkeel, 14/1 American Trilogy, 14/1 Elyaadi
20/1 Bernie The Bolt, 20/1 Dawn Twister, Golden Sunbird
20/1 Shahwardi, Cloudy Spirit, 25/1 Seaside Sizzler
33/1 Bruslini, 33/1 Kangaroo Court, 50/1 Romeo Montague
66/1 Moose Moran, 66/1 Riptide, 100/1 Dalhaan
100/1 Scotsbrook Cloud.

* The Queen Alexandra Stakes is over a marathon 2m 5f
* There are some angles that should be applied in this race
* In 22 years no horses came from Class 4 or lower
* The class bridge is too much to make up
* The following horses fail this
* CLOUDY SPIRIT – SCOTSBROOK CLOUD
* RIPTIDE – KANGAROO COURT -BRUSLINI
* In 22 years no horses came from 12f or shorter
* The following horses fail this
* DAWN TWISTER -SWINGKEEL
* SHAHWARDI -ROMEO MONTAGUE
* SEASIDE SIZZLER
* Horses coming from 14f races won 8 past renewals.
* Those beaten more than 6 lengths in that race were 0-55
* BERNIE THE BOLT fails this
* GOLDEN SUNBIRD is wrong as an 8yo mare
* PETARA BAY wrong as a 8yo debutant
* ELYAADI didnt do enough last time
* MOOSE MORAN – DALHAAN are outclassed

S h o r t l i s t

* SIMENON won the 2m 4f Ascot Stakes 4 days ago
* Could be huge fitness edge and win him this
* Could be he had too hard a race then any wont recover
* We can’t predict that before the race
* What we do now is winners have come from that race
* These were all unexposed 4 year olds
* SIMEON is different an exposed 5yo
* AMERICAN TRILOGY – Impossible to rate
* He has been hurdling and hasnt ran on the flat in years
* He has some Class and I’d shortlist him
* OVERTURN – Game front runner could take some beating
* He has to show he stays and can produce on the ground
* ZUIDER ZEE – Serious chance but will he stay ?

Selection

AMERICAN TRILOGY 14/1 victor chandler – ladbrokes – william hill – bet365

Each Way

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