Ayr Gold Cup Tip

The Ayr Gold Cup

The Ayr Gold Cup is too difficult to consider for a strong bet.

I am putting up my thoughts today on it however not because
it is the strongest advice I have for full members today
but beacuse it is the race a few of you have asked about.

I have shortlisted six and it was Alben Star at 20/1 that did best on my angles.

For live market odds on this race see here ==> Live Odds

* The Ayr Gold Cup is a 6f Handicap
* There has been 19 renewals of this race since 1993

* I think the following statistics are worth following

* Horses from 5f races struggled and should be opposed
* None of todays 5f horses have good profiles so these are out
* BOASTFUL – CHEVIOT -BORDERLESCOTT

* Horses aged 8 or more have yet to win in decades
* JOHANNES – REGAL PARADE fail that

* Horses aged 6 or more won just 3 renewals since the 1980′s
* None were absent as long as WAFFLE or CAPTAIN RAMIUS

* Horses aged 6 that won all ran within 17 days since the 1980′s
* THE CHEKA – BRAE HILL fail that

* BEACON LODGE is underraced for a 7yo

* MISS WORK OF ART is underraced for a 3yo filly

* No exposed horse won absent 7 + weeks
* RODRIGO DE TORRES fails that

* Avoid horses aged 5 or more absent 7 weeks or more
* MIRZA – TARIQ TOO fails that

* Horses winning last time absent a month are wrong
* PINTURA has that to overcome that

* MORACHE MUSIC – Shaky and unsafe absent 70 days
* Found a 4yo like him with a stone less weight
* That winner didnt come from a Group race like him

* DOC HAY is 5 and won last time out
* MAAREK is 5 and won last time out
* Horses aged 5 doing that were 0-22
* Both are hard to match in all similar races too
* DOC HAY has a career high mark to overcome as well
* MAAREK has ran just once in 73 days
* He has to do that carrying a massive weight as well

* HAWKEYETHENOO comes from a Group 1 race
* The 2007 winner did that but he was an un exposed 4yo
* HAWKEYETHENOO is exposed and 6 years old
* No other horses won similar races from Group races
* HAWKEYETHENOO also has a career high mark
* He’s raced just once in 49 days as well and Stall 3 isnt ideal

* SHOLAAN – Difficult task as a 3yo absent 84 days
* He has 4 runs this year and no 3yo won this race like him
* I can find a 3yo winning absent 78 days
* That was 2007 Silver Cup winner Utmost Respect
* He was lighter raced though and won Group 2 races
* SHOLAAN – Not quite right for me
* Also have to consider stall 2 as low numbers are unsafe

S h o r t l i s t

* PEARL ICE is a lightly raced 4yo absent 84 days
* Two Ayr Gold Cup winners were not unlike him
* They had 7 week absences in 1996 and 2001
* PEARL ICE does have 12 weeks though
* Hard to know whether 84 days is too long or not

* OUR JONATHAN won this last year from the same stall
* He has the same absence and comes from the same trial race
* The 2010 winner was an exposed 5yo absent 28 days
* OUR JONATHAN only has a week more off the track
* I think he has enough to shortlist
* He does have far fewer runs this year
* There are more doubts about his current form as well

* COLONEL MAK is an exposed 5yo absent a month
* I would have much prefered a run within a month
* I could overlook 35 days but exposed 5yo’s rarely win this
* That said the 2010 winner was an exposed 5yo
* He was absent 28 days only a week more so he’s in
* COLONEL MAK has a career high mark though

* SHROPSHIRE is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* I like that profile as he has a recent run
* I found a couple of similar winners in other races
* I just wish he had more than 1 run in 49 days

* LOUIS THE PIOUS is an unexposed 4yo
* He has a months break and Class 2 form
* I can live with that profile
* The 2007 Silver Cup winner was like him

* ALBEN STAR is an unexposed 4yo
* He comes from 6f and has Class 2 form
* ALBEN STAR hasnt raced in a Month either
* Thats a fine profile as the 1996 and 2001 winners shared it
* He’s been Running well in big handicaps all year
* ALBEN STAR looks the best profile to me

Selection

ALBEN STAR 20/1

Each Way at 20/1 paying 1/4 for 5 places at bet365
Same available at Sky and stan james but bet365 will give you best odds guaranteed

 

 

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on September 22, 2012

Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Leave a Comment

You must be logged in to post a comment.

More Blog Post

Previose Post: