Cheltenham Day 2

No joy with the free blog bets yesterday.
A touch unfortunate with the race we chose to post up.
It was one of multiple races covered for full members and it
was the other races where the winning selections arose.

Guy went through the Cheltenham card yesterday and highlighted the following selections

Dunguib win bet 10/11 – Lost
Menorah to beat Blackstairmountain in Match Bet 10/11Won
Oscar WhiSky Each Way 9/2 without the favourite  – Won

CHELTENHAM  2.05
Sizing Europe  Each Way 5/1   Won

CHELTENHAM  2.40

Split Stake Bet

Nenuphar Collonges 22/1 Lost
Kicks For Free 25/1 Lost

CHELTENHAM 3.20

Binocular 8/1 Win Bet  – Won
Solwhit 7/1  Saver Bet – Lost

CHELTENHAM 4.00

Freneys Well 33/1 Each Way
Another Jewel to beat Monkerhostin in match bet  10/11 Won

CHELTENHAM 4.40

Voler La Vedette Win Bet 2/1  Lost
No One Tells Me Place Bet 5/2  Lost

He has done a similar through the card  today for full members
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http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-offer.asp
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As per yesterday just one race on the free blog.

CHELTENHAM WEDNESDAY 2.05

Neptune Investment Management Novices´ Hurdle
(Registered As Baring Bingham Novices´ Hurdle)
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m5f

7/2 Quel Esprit, 7/2 Rite Of Passage, 11/2 Finian´s Rainbow
6/1 Peddlers Cross, 10/1 Summit Meeting, 11/1 Reve De Sivola 1
6/1 Manyriverstocross, 20/1 Ghizao, 25/1 The Knoxs
33/1 Gus Macrae, 33/1 Some Present, 50/1 Hollo Ladies
66/1 Baily Rock, 100/1 Sleepy Hollow, 100/1 The Giant Bolster
200/1 Consulate, 200/1 Quartano.

* This is a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 2m 5f
* There has been 16 renewals since 1992

I think you can rule out half the field. Pointless doing
too much analysis on no hopers. Its not a race that is
likely to go to a complete outsider and never has done.
I think THE KNOXS is underraced for a 7yo and lacks
backclass. He looks to come up short.  I dont like a 5yo
like SUMMIT MEETING coming from just an ordinary
Novice Hurdle. I think GHIZAO is underraced as well
coming from a 2m race and with just 2 hurdle starts I’d
see him as vulnerable. MANYRIVERSTOCROSS does
not come out well from a 2m handicap and none of the
past winners were like him. Five look worth a mention.

* REVE DE SIVOLA is hard to judge
* His biggest problem is clearly his absence
* No horse won without having run in January -February.
* No Refuge had a similar profile in 2005
* He didnt have as long a break as this horse
* He was also much lighter raced
* Wouldnt rule him out
* There are better profiles for me

* PEDDLERS CROSS is 5 and comes from a 2m race
* I dont like that profile at all
* Since 1993 just 1 winner was 5 coming from 2m 4f or less
* The record was 1 winner from 33 that tried
* That winner was the mightly Istabraq in 1997
* I think we can safely say he is an exception to the rule
* Istabraq prepped over 18f before winning this
* No English horse aged 5 came 1st or 2nd in this from a 2m race
* He wouldnt be my choice to win this race

* RITE OF PASSAGE has looks top class
* He does have a few little issues to address
* Its unclear whether Cheltenham is his best track
* 3rd in the Bumper last year he was beaten a fair way
* He is a Flat Bred horse which is a concern
* This race usually falls to a National Hunt bred horse
* He has only ran twice over hurdles before
* 20 of the last 24 winners all had more than 2 hurdle runs

* QUEL ESPRIT ran in the Cheltenham bumper last year
* He was just behind Rites of Passage in 4th
* He has 3 hurdle runs and that makes more suitable
* His defeat last time did blot his copybook
* 3 of the last 7 winners were beaten though last time
* Statistically I think he is just better than Rites of Passage

* FINIAN´S RAINBOW is a 7 year old
* We know Horses aged 5 and 6 dominate
* They have won 33 of the last 38 renewals
* The last 10 winners and runner ups were aged 5 or 6
* I am not sure thats a statistic thats relevant
* FINIAN´S RAINBOW didnt start racing until he was 6
* The only previous 7yo winner started his career late
* As he is lightly raced I dont see his age as a big issue
* I looked at 7 year olds in this race since 1993
* I Looked at those starting under 20/1
* I looked at those with Grade 1 form
* I looked at those winning last time out
* I looked at those not coming from 16f races
* There were only 2 horses aged 7 with that profile
* They finished 1st (1998) and 3rd (2006)
* That tells me there is nothing wrong with his profile

SELECTION

Split Stake Bet

FINIAN’S RAINBOW 11/2

SOME PRESENT 33/1  Each Way

Interesting race. I would only want Rites of Passage
if he was strong statistically but he isnt. Quel Esprit
is slightly better but the ground could be the problem
with him and it does put me off a bit. I know horses in
this race aged 7 havent done well but I hope I have
shown that only a certain type of 7yo struggle and
horses like FINIAN’S RAINBOW are fine. I would be
having half my stake on him.

The other half of the stake is far more specualtive but
at 33/1 SOME PRESENT could be a bit overpriced. He
isnt brilliant statistically but he is 33/1 and he isnt dead my any means.
My arguments are these

* There are question marks about shorter priced horses
* He ran in the 2009 Bumper here and came second
* He was only beaten by Dunguib
* He beat Rites of Passage and Quel Esprit that day
* Since then he has a W 2 2 2 6 3 record
* Twice he has been beaten by Dunguib again
* He hasnt been well placed in his races
* He was the victim of many slow pace races
* He comes from a Grade 1 race thats a good trial
* Although beaten 13 lengths there were excuses
* He was hardly likely to beat Dunguib
* The ground was heavy that day which hurt him
* His sire has only had 2 fancied runners in this race
* They came 2nd and 4th
* He should be much better suited to faster ground
* He will appreciate the trip and the stronger pace
* There is a bit of a leap of faith but he could go well
* SOME PRESENT could run much better than expected

Posted under horse racing tips

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