C h e s t e r 4.15

4/1 Diman Waters, 4/1 Electric Qatar
13/2 Church Music, 13/2 Jedward, 8/1 Green Park
8/1 Silvanus, 10/1 Tyfos, 12/1 Beau Mistral
14/1 Living It Large, 16/1 Royal Bajan, 20/1 Crimea
20/1 Hamoody, 20/1 Legal Eagle

* This is a 5f handicap for 0-86 rated horses
* My cut off point with the draw is Stall 11
* There have been 62 handicaps since 2005
* Horses drawn 11 or more are 0-61 in these races
* CRIMEA is drawn 11 and doesnt come out well
* ROYAL BAJAN is out drawn 12
* LEGAL EAGLE is out drawn 13
* LIVING IT LARGE doesnt come out well
* The weight draw absence and inadequate last run hurt him
* HAMOODY doesnt offer enough with a lady rider
* ELECTRIC QATAR is 3 and won last time
* Some 3yo’s did that but none defied a penalty
* ELECTRIC QATAR moves from a 0-75 to a 0-76
* Not convinced he has enough improvement
* You have to consider his running style as well
* He is invariably slowly away or Missing the break
* JEDWARD is hard to read as an older mare
* There are many older mares winning
* None however were as lightly raced as her
* Statistically I cant match her exactly because of that
* This is also a step up in class for her
* Respected but I don’t see enough positives
* GREEN PARK ran over 7f only yesterday
* Troubles me he drops to 5f only a day later
* Especially as he is a 9 year old ridden by a 7lbs claimer
* The only winner from 7f with a recent run was a 5yo
* GREEN PARK is not statistically safe
* DIMAN WATERS has a reasonable solid profile
* He will need a career best though off this rating
* Flopping the start worries me as does the ground
* It may not be as fast as he wants it today
* SILVANUS isnt that well handicapped
* All his handicap wins are in Class 5 and Class 6
* Not keen he is up in class and up in the weights
* He is in good form though but is getting no help
* I couldnt rule him out given how well hes running
* I just feel he has a stiff task and other factors worry me
* Not least no Track form and often being held up

S h o r t l i s t

* BEAU MISTRAL is a 3yo filly
* I looked at those with 13 + runs and a recent race
* I found 1 winner who came from an all aged handicap
* BEAU MISTRAL comes from a 3yo race but I respect her
* She has a chance on Course form two runs ago

* BEAU MISTRAL is shortlistable and a positive

* CHURCH MUSIC is a lightly raced 3yo with Group form
* I dont have a big problem with him at all
* I’d have liked a little bit more recent race

* TYFOS is a 7 year old with 3 runs this season
* He also lacks a recent race
* There were a couple of winners like that
* None had his weight but one did win with 9st 7lbs
* Thats Close enough to shortlist him
* TYFOS is also running into form as well
* His last run was better than it looked
* He raced on his own for most of the race

Selection

TYFOS 8/1 Win Bet
BEAU MISTRAL 12/1 Saver Bet

Posted under horse racing tips