S a l i s b u r y   8.10

5/2 Undulant Way, 6/1 Reset City, 8/1 Albeed
8/1 Issabella Gem, 8/1 Sunny Future, 8/1 Tropical Bachelor
10/1 Baltimore Clipper, 10/1 Drawn Gold, 10/1 Now What
14/1 Ugalla.

* This is a 14f Handicap for 0-76 rated horses
* There are 116 similar races at this time of year
* Horses with 1 run this year struggled in 116 races
* No Mares have won with 1 run this year
* RESET CITY has that against her and isnt for me
* She is gambled and from a significant stable
* She could easily defy the stats and win this race
* I see a better option and I find her too risky
* UGALLA also fails that and looks vulnerable
* ALBEED is a 4yo filly well beaten last time out
* Fillies aged 4 beaten 10 + lengths last time were 2-34
* None of these had 13 or more runs as she does
* ALBEED has a shaky profile
* TROPICAL BACHELOR has a chance but not for me
* Not when exposed and just two runs this season
* NOW WHAT is a 4yo filly absent over a month
* Those with 7 or more runs and that profile were 1-13
* That winner had more backclass than she does
* She isnt a negative but she is not for me
* UNDULANT WAY is a 3yo filly
* There are 3yo fillies winning these 14f races
* None however came from 11f or shorter
* UNDULANT WAY is not a negative
* She does have to do something no other 3yo filly did
* ISSABELLA GEM is a 4yo filly with 9 + runs
* Those coming from 14f or shorter won 5 races
* Only 1 had 1-2-3 runs that season like her
* She is not a negative but I wasnt too impressed
* She has the least experienced jockey in the race
* DRAWN GOLD is an exposed 7yo
* He only has 3 runs this season
* He lacks enough backclass to be a safe choice
* SUNNY FUTURE – Respectable and shortlistable

S e l e c t i o n

BALTIMORE CLIPPER only has a 0-73 class field
to beat. I think there is a good chance he could beat
this average Class 5 field. He won a better class race
as a 3yo. He was no worldbeater but he showed he is
at least good enough to win a race like this. He had
some problems last year with Ulcers but that’s now
behind him. I noted Paul Cole saying earlier in the
year that he had improved a lot over the winter. I
watched him enter and pull out of a few races with
the ground going against him. When he did race in
June had badly needed his seasonal debut. He then
went to Salisbury and ran much better. That was a
0-85 handicap much better than this and he wasnt
fit that had and was only beaten 4 lengths. He had
his 3rd run at Sandown. Starting 25/1 in a Classier
race than this he fiished 4th. He wasnt unlucky in
this race but he was hampered and ran on strongly
doing his best work late. He has improved on each
of his runs this year. Last time out swings it for me.
He started 18/1 on a Grade 1 track at Newbury. It
was a better class of race. KEYS won the race and
came out yesterday to win again. It was absolutely
no disgrace to finish 4th that day. He has ran well
enough to win this race on his last 3 starts. This is
a decent drop in class today. The ground looks ok
and has escaped the rain. He is a good age and has
a recent run. Given his price I feel he is a good bet.

Selection

BALTIMORE CLIPPER       Each Way

9/1 at many bookmakers including
boylesports , vc , william hill , sky, bet365

Posted under horse racing tips