Doncaster Racing Tip

One from our profiles and previews message section again today.

 

Doncaste r  3.10

For live market odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-11-10/doncaster/15-10/betting/
* This is a Listed race over 6f
* Doncaster has had 20 renewals of this race
* I looked at all races here over 6f with 12 + runners
* Its very clear Stalls 1-2-3 are the weakest
* Since 2011 they are just 1-81 in 30 races
* JOHANNES has the worst draw in Stall 1
* No winners were aged 8 or more anyway and he is a 9yo
* SIRIUS PROSPECT is not drawn well in stall 3
* Statisticallly he’s ok with the 2003 winner reasonably similar
* Only 1 winner was like him and that draw wont help
* THUNDERBALL is also badly drawn
* I dont see enough in his profile to overlook that
* Horses from 5f races have underperformed over the years
* They have won just 1 renewal since 1993
* Their overall score is 4 wins from 75 runners
* Horses aged 3 that came from 5f races were 0-28
* JACK DEXTER has that against him today
* He’s improving fast but as yet no 3yo won this from 5f
* I looked at horses that came from 5f handicaps
* There was only 1 winner from 38 that tried
* That was an unexposed 4yo in 2010
* No exposed horses have won this from a 5f race
* EVEN STEVENS – DOC HAY – MASS RALLY all fail that
* YORK GLORY looks underraced this year from 5f
* No filly like KATLA has won this from a 5f race
* VALENCHA was beaten further last time than all 20 winners
* BEST TRIP looks outclassed
* Horses from 7f races had a poor 3-82 record
* None were mares like GOURAY GIRL
* None were as inexperienced as TAKE COVER
* LADIES ARE FOREVER is a 4yo filly
* All 29 of those lost and I cant match her to a winner
* JUSTINEO is wrong as a 3yo from 7f
* There were 8 winners aged 3 in the last 20 renewals
* ULTRASONIC is a 3yo fily from the Boadicea Stakes
* The 1999 and 2001 winners had that same profile
* Both of those winners had Grade 1-2 form
* ULTRASONIC doesnt have that
* The only 3yo fillies to win without Group form were 1988 +1991
* Thats a long time ago but at least it did happen
* PLACE IN MY HEART has exactly the same problem
* Shes a 3yo filly with no form beyond a Listed Class race
* ETON RIFLES is 7 but so were many winners
* They all ran within 2 weeks though and he doesnt
* 3 had far more runs that season and more backclass
* ETON RIFLES – I wanted a recent run for a 7yo
* THE CHEKA is an exposed 6yo without a run in 2 weeks
* The 1992 2000 and 2008 winners were similar
* THE CHEKA would have to make the shortlist

Shortlist

SIRIUS PROSPECT – Profile is shortlisted but draws a worry
ULTRASONIC – Has done enough to get on the shortlist
THE CHEKA – Pound for Pound the best profile

Selections to a nominal £10 total stake

£6 Win THE CHEKA 14/1  Coral bet365

£2 Saver SIRIUS PROSPECT 11/2 BoyleSports bet 365

£2 Saver ULTRASONIC 13/2 bet365 victor chandler

 

Posted under horse racing tips

This post was written by Horse Betting Blog on November 10, 2012

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