A short spell of losers on our free blog of late.

Will we stick up an odds on horse?

Nope.

Long term value is the name of the game and we are on a few big priced horses today at Goodwood.

G o o d w o o d   2.45

For Live odds see

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-08-25/goodwood/14-45/betting/

* This is a 7f Handicap for 0-109 rated horses
* I looked at every Class 2 Handicap in August- September
* Since the stalls were renumbered there have been 36 races
* Horses drawn 14 or more in these races were 0-42
* The very high draws have a lot to prove
* FULBRIGHT has one of the worst draws in Stall 18
* I looked at 3 year olds in all similar races from 8f
* There were some winners but none had his weight
* Only one 3yo won a mile race last time
* That horse had 17lbs less weight and was lighter raced
* Draw and Profile worry me about FULBRIGHT
* MABAIT – The worst draw and his profile is unsafe
* PRIMAEVAL – Exposed with absence and a bad draw
* I can resist PRIMAEVAL
* DECENT FELLA – Felt he needed another run this year
* Drawn 17 wont help and he isnt for me either
* BRONZE PRINCE is regressing fast
* JUSTONEFORTHEROAD hasnt been running well enough
* Dont want a horse with just 1 run this season
* JOHNNY CASTLE and WEBBOW look wrong
* Exposed horses from 6f races are just 2-79
* None of these had under 7 runs that season
* IMPERIAL GUEST has just 4 and looks unsafe
* Horses aged 4 from 6f races had a 1-35 record
* Those with 7 or more runs doing this are 0-28
* POWERFUL PRESENCE is also exposed up in trip
* Aged 6 I felt his profile was unimpressive
* BERTIEWHITTLE fails this which is a worry
* Not a negative but I cant match him to a winner
* BERTIEWHITTLE had excuses last time so respect him
* THE CONFESSOR won last time out
* Not many follow up his age and I wasnt persuaded
* I wanted a more recent run and a few other chances
* My angles suggest few like him manage to win again
* GATEPOST didnt run well enough last time
* ARNOLD LANE comes from a 3yo handicap over 7f
* The vast majority of winners doing that had under 9 runs
* ARNOLD LANE is a bit exposed with 11 runs
* Not having a recent run doesnt help either
* I’d just see him as a positive but I wanted more

Possibles

* RAKAAN isnt well drawn in stall 16
* I thought his profile was acceptable
* 33/1 is a big price for a horse with his profile
* His Draw and attitude are less convincing
* WHITE FROST is an unexposed 4yo
* His profile is far from a disaster and he is shortlisted
* At 25/1 and more I’d see him as a big price
* The vibes last time were that he was ungenuine
* FIELD OF DREAM – Neutral profile keep him on side
* Held by some but did have excuses and profiles acceptable
* The more rain that comes hurts him
* CITRUS STAR – Enough to shortlist and well drawn
* He wont want the rain either

S h o r t l i s t

* DUCAL is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* He has Class 2 form and lacks a run in 2 weeks
* I found 1 similar winner to him

* REDACT – Stall 15 could be better but respect him
* I found a winner like him and I’d give him a chance

Selection

DUCAL 16/1 Win Bet     victor chandler
REDACT 25/1 Win Bet    bet365 – william hill

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Posted under horse racing tips