Great St Wilfrid Stakes

Great St Wilfrid Stakes
(Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 6f

This is one of the Big races tomorrow. I have
previewed the race below and am sending this now.
I will finish the conclusion for full members when
I know the ground tomorrow.

 

* The Great St Wilfrid is a Class 2 handicap over 6f
* Ripon has had 21 renewals of this race
* There are 52 similar races in August
* I want to start with the Draw
* Since 2011 Ripon have had 22 handicaps
* Thats 22 handicaps over 6f with 12 + runners
* Horses drawn 1 or 2 had a 0-42 record
* No horses drawn 18 or higher won either
* To be fair only a very few tried to win from stall 18+
* All 22 winners were drawn between 3 and 17  
* SPINATRIX has a poor draw in Stall 1
* BORDERLESCOTT  has a poor draw in Stall 1
 *I looked at 52 similar handicaps in August
* I looked at horses from 5f races
* These horses struggled without a run within 2 weeks
* The only horses overcoming this were lightly raced 3yo’s
* I looked at horses aged 4 or more from 5f races
* Those without a run within 2 weeks were 0-97
* BORDERLESCOTT just fails that
* As he is 11 with just 2 runs this year he is rejected
* CONFESSIONAL is out from 5f but 50 days ago
* Horses beaten 10 + lengths last time have struggled
* Only last years winner overcame this in 21 past renewals
* THUNDERBALL – POLSKI MAX – BLAINE fail this
* I can’t make any case for those three horses
* POLSKI MAX and BLAINE are 3yo Males
* 3yo Males have a 0-32 record in this race
* REGAL PARADE is unsafe as a 9yo
* Exposed 5 year olds with 21 + runs struggled
* They have a 3-195 record in these races
* DR RED EYE fails this and has never won at 6f before
* EL VIENTO is also an exposed 5 year old
* He has never won off his current rating before
* He’s running well and many will fancy him
* SPINATRIX is an exposed 5yo as well
* She is a Mare Drawn 1 which is a worry
* SPINATRIX is up in class to a grade she hasn’t won in
* She has to do this from a career high mark of 100 too
* LOUIS THE PIOUS is an exposed 5yo
* We know similar horses have a 3-195 record
* He’s never won a Class 2 handicap before in 16 tries
* He’s never won from this handicap mark either
* Running well he could win but his profiles weak
* ZACYNTHUS has a career high mark
* As he has never raced over this distance he is out
* The highest rated winner of this race was 101
* Recent winners had the following ratings
* 99 87 95 94 100 92 98 99 80 98 96 83 85 75 101 83 95
* HOOF IT has his work cut out rated 109
* Especially when only having 2 runs this season
* CAPTAIN RAMIUS has to defy a rating of 107
* Thats as a 7yo with a 121 day absence so he is out
* BACCARAT is a 4 year old with just 7 runs
* There were 18 winners aged 4 in the 52 races
* 17 of the 18 winners had 13 or more career starts
* BACCARAT only has 7 career starts
* Horses aged 4 with under 13 career starts were just 1-73
* That horse (Hidden Dragon) won this race in 2003
* He had 11 runs though 4 more than BACCARAT
* BACCARAT is very lightly raced for a 4yo
* He only has 3 runs this year less than many here
* He’s progressive and has been gambled
* He looks like the return to sprinting is what he wants
* He’s had good excuses for defeats so lots to like
* Its simply that no 4yo has won anywhere like him
* Considering he is also short at 5/1 he is rejected
* SUMMERINTHECITY is an exposed 6yo
* Coming from 6f he last ran over 2 weeks ago
* Similar horses had a 0-62 record
* Closest was Markab the 2009 winner of this
* He had that profile with 14 days absence
* SUMMERINTHECITY has 21 days off a bit more than ideal
* I could overlook that extra 7 days
* He has been raised in the weights for losing though
* That seems unfair and it hurts his chance
* RODRIGO DE TORRES is an exposed 6yo
* Coming from 6f he last ran over 2 weeks ago
* Similar horses had a 0-62 record
* Closest was Markab the 2009 winner of this
* He had that profile with 14 days absence
* RODRIGO DE TORRES has 7 extra days to defy
* He’s more positive than negative
* He has no Ripon form though and I prefer others

My Early Draft Shortlist

* DICK BOS is 4 and has 11 career starts
* The 2011 winner had the same profile
* That makes him a positive but I’d prefer more runs

* PRODIGALITY is 5 and has 19 career starts
* I looked at all 5 year olds with 16-21 career runs
* I Found a 2-25 record with this profile
* Both horses achieved more than he did last time
* I can excuse that as he had an impossible draw
* Drawn 1 at Goodwood when stalls 26 25 28 dominated
* Unlikely stable to win but he has a chance

* PEARL ICE is 5 and has 13 career starts
* I looked at 5 year old males with 11-12-13-14-15 runs
* I found an encouraging 3-19 record
* Take out those from 5f races
* Take out the fillies in this record
* Take out the ones that were well beaten last time
* This improves that record to 3-10
* All 3 winners had 3-4 runs this season like him
* PEARL ICE has a very solid profile
* He has a 2 W record at this track
* I used to think the race he just won was a bad trial race
* The 2011 winner did win from that race

* SECRET WITNESS is a 7 year old
* There were 5 winners aged 7 or more
* They all ran within 2 weeks like him
* They all came from 6f and were well raced that year
* SECRET WITNESS’s profile isn’t too bad
* The dilemma is should we ignore Stall 20 here
* In the 2011 renewals 1st 3 home were drawn 17 20 19
* Mid division in this last year he’s much lower in the weights

Best Wishes
Guy
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

 

 

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